Betting thoughts from the Value Hunters

Grand National - Horse by Horse

2011-04-08T19:53:00.000+01:00

1. Don't Push It (9/1fav). Last years winner and new favourite. Carries too much weight and is out of form this year.
2. Tidal Bay (40/1). Too much weight, but may be staying on late on for a place.
3. What A Friend (14/1). 4th in Gold Cup. Grade 1 winner last year, but surely carrying too much weight. Would be a fairytale for Sir Alex.
4. Vic Venturi (50/1). Always looked the right sort to win and should be up at the front, but too high in the weights now and out of form. Place prospects if he gets round.
5. Majestic Concorde (33/1). Hasn't run for 3 months and too inexperienced for this, and I haven't even menitoned the weight its carrying. Avoid
6. Or Noir De Somoza (66/1). French raider. No run for 11 weeks and too high in the weights and hasn't won over 3 miles... Avoid!!
7. Dooneys Gate (66/1). No run for 66 days and has won a decent race yet. Possible place prospects, but unlikely.
8. Big Fella Thanks (18/1). 6th, 2 years ago when too young, then 4th last year. Should be up there but form figures of 2P44 this seson will have to be improved on to win this.
9. The Tother One (80/1). Only 3 runs this season is a negative and with no run for 10 weeks, will have to be ultra-fit to win.
10. Ballabriggs (18/1). Geared towards this race all season. Only 3 seasonal runs (all in 2011) is the main negative but a big run expected.

11. The Midnight Club (11/1). Ruby Walsh on board, but is inexperienced. Only 2 runs this season is big negative.
12. Niche Market (22/1). looks the sort to win this, not in form but excuses for that (all good Class 1s). Pulled Up last year, but Irish GN winner in 2009.
13. Silver By Nature (18/1). Won the GN trial at Haydock but only 3 runs this season. Big chance if he can overcome that trend.
14. BACKSTAGE (NAP) (14/1). The most perfect horse in the race. Now all he has to do is WIN. Trainer won this in 2007 and jockey won in 1999.
15. Chief Dan George (50/1). Nice horse, fell at Cheltenham early on. A little on old side but good place chances.
16. Calgary Bay (40/1). Was decent a couple of years ago but not the same horse since. Off track for 10 weeks is his only negative.
17 Killyglen (66/1). Another perfect horse, only problem is he hasn't done too much and his last win was at this meeting 2 years ago.
18. Oscar Time (14/1). 2nd in last season's Irish National, only 10 Chase starts barely gets him in and only 3 runs this season.. Better prospects elsewhere.
19. Quinz (18/1). Good looking horse and may win it next year, but too inexperienced to win this...probably
20. Becauseicouldntsee (33/1). Not good enough even without being inexperienced and without a run in 3 months. Add his only 3m win was in a Point to Point in Ireland and we have an early faller in the making.... if it wins, I'll eat my proverbial hat.

21. Comply Or Die (66/1). 2008 winner and 2009 R/Up. 12th last year and 12yo now. Likely to finish but far behind the winner.
22. Quolibet (200/1). An inexperienced horse that hasn't won over 3 miles. Pray you don't get this in the sweepstake.
23. Grand Slam Hero (100/1). Surely outclassed, and ran plenty of times over the summer. Off the track for 2 months rounds off why he can't win.
24. State Of Play (33/1). Placed in both his Grand National runs. Not run since then and fitness taken on trust. No reason why he can't be up there, but he can't win it can he?
25. King Fontaine (100/1). Trend perfect (just) and a good 5th at Cheltenham. Only 9 Chase starts (4 wins) means he's inexperienced and only won an £18,000 race. Place chances?
26. In Compliance (66/1). Was potentially a very good horse a couple of years ago, but off track with injuries. Better over 2 1/2m and not this slog.
27. Hello Bud (40/1). Won the Becher Chase in November (over these fences) and former winner of Scottish GN. 5th in last year's GN. But 13yo now, so that rules him out and only 3 runs this season (off track 12 weeks) big negatives on top.
28. West End Rocker (33/1). Won't rule this one out. Fits all the trends, but 3 runs this season a small negative.
29. Santa's Son (200/1). Might finish around Christmas time. No wins over 3 miles and 7 runs this season is over the optimum.
30. Bluesea Cracker (25/1). No female winner since 1951, but she did win the Irish GN last season @ 25/1 so trip should be ok. 3 runs since and out of the frame each time is not what a Grand National winner looks like though.

31. That's Rhythm (150/1). Off the track for 4 months and has yet to win a decent quality Chase. Add in form of 059 in his last 3 starts and you can see why he won't be taking home any money this time.
32. Surface To Air (100/1). 1 run since Jun 2008 (when he won the Summer National at Uttoxeter (4m1f). This is only his 5th Chase start. These are stunning negatives. Might be a contender if he had more experience.
33. Piraya (200/1). Out of form and doesn't stay more than 3 miles let alone this. 13th last year about a lap behind.
34. Can't Buy Time (100/1). Tony McCoy doesn't fancy him even though he does fit many of the trends. Badly out of form, so winning this would be a huge shock. Avoid!!
35. Character Building (33/1). Nina Carberry on board and a grey. Likely to start shorter than this at 4.15 tomorrow with all those housewives on it. A staying on 7th last year. Now an 11yo, a slight negative, but that's it's only negative so may get placed if raced closer to the pace.
36. Ornais (125/1). Too inexperienced after being off the track for over 2 years until Feb. Can't win.
37. Arbor Supreme (20/1). 2nd to The Midnight Club in Feb. Hits all the trends apart from having 4+ runs this season. Decent place claims.
38. Royal Rosa (100/1). A 12yo now and retiring after the race. Would be a fairytale end to a decent career, but off for 3 months rules the old git out of the running.
39. Skippers Brig (33/1). Beat Ballabriggs and Chief Dan George last time but that was completely different to this. Not won a Chase worth £17,000 or more is a big negative, and only 3 runs this season is not good either. May get a place.
40. Golden Kite (80/1). Hits all the major trends, but has run 7 times since last April. Would be a shock if he won, but there are worse horses out there.

Grand National Trends 2011

2011-04-08T18:22:00.000+01:00

We all know by now that the winner of the Grand National hits certain trends year after year and isn't the "lottery" we are told it is. Lets start with an easy one.

Age:
The Grand National horses need to have stamina and a little speed to win, younger horses don't have the stamina built up yet and the older horses get round but far too slowly, so thats why the since 1940, 8-12 year olds have won every race.
The last 7 year old to win was Bogskar in 1940. The last 13 year old was Sergeant Murphy in 1923. In fact the last 6 winners were aged 9-10, but for now we want horses aged 8-12.
Bye Bye to Quinz (7), Quolibet (7), Hello Bud (13)

Stamina:
The last horse without a win at 3 miles or more was Gay Trip in 1970. If you haven't won at 3 miles, how do you win at 4 1/2 miles.
Laters Or Noir De Somoza, In Compliance, Santa's Son, Piraya

Class:
Right. Class is important. Party Politics (1992) was the last horse that hadn't won a race worth £17,000 to the winner. Horses must have some sort of 'Big Race' form. Bad horses don't win.
Horses not good enough are Dooneys Gate, Becauseicouldn'tsee, Grand Slam Hero, That's Rhythm
and Skippers Brig

Form:
You must have some sort of form to win the National. The last 21 winners had at least a Top 3 finish in one of their last 3 runs.
This now rules out last year's winner Don't Push It, Vic Venturi, Big Fella Thanks, Niche Market, Bluesea Cracker and Can't Buy Time

Fitness:
The last 21 winners all had a race under their belts within the last 49 days. Horses from a longer lay off are sharp enough for this race.
Out go Majestic Concorde, The Tother One, Calgary Bay, State Of Play and Royal Rosa.

Experience:
You need to have jumped a fair few fences to win the National. I'm going to say 9 races or more. This rules out the favourite The Midnight Club, Surface To Air and Ornais

Weight:
Finally we get to the tricky one. Weight. Horses carrying more than 11 stone just couldn't win the National but that was when you had lots of horses running off bottom weight of 10 stone. Now that the quality of runners has improved, and the bottom weights are bigger than 10-00, 11-00+ winners are coming into it. This years bottom weight is 10-02, which is lower than normal and no horse has won carrying more than 11-05 since Red Rum in 1977. So rule out horses carrying more than 11-05.
Good-bye to Tidal Bay and What A Friend, far too good for this race.

This leaves us with 12 good chances. I want to get that down to something manageable so I'm going to add another stat in.

Winners of this race have raced at least 4 times in the season. Horses with an interupted campaign just aren't able to tun to the best of their ability and are founds wanting at the end.
Out go horses with 3 runs Ballabriggs, Silver By Nature, Oscar Time, Comply Or Die, West End Rocker and Arbor Supreme. Golden Kite has actually run 'too many' times but a few of them were in the summer and he's border line. He's also 100/1 or so, so unlikely to win.

Back to the Age thing. I really want to be on the side of 9 & 10yo's. So reluctantly I'm chucking out Chief Dan George and Character Building, who are both 11.

This leaves 3 horses who have 'perfect' profiles...
Backstage (14/1, Stan James & William Hill), Killyglen (66/1, Bet365, Skybet, Vcbet, Coral) and King Fontaine (100/1, totesport)

There you have it..... 12 on the list and 3 shortlisted 'winners'.
Most bookies online are going 5 places. vcbet are 6 places. Avoid Betfred, Coral and William Hill as they are all paying 4 (I imagine Ladbrokes will too). If you are betting in the shop, please take a price at the counter. Most of the time it will be bigger than the Starting Price.

Good luck

Cheltenham Day 1, 2011

2011-03-15T00:04:00.000Z

CHELTENHAM DAY 1, Tuesday 15^th March 2011

1.30 Stan James Supreme Novices' Hurdle

2m ½f, Grade 1, £100,000

Trends:
10/10 Won at least 50% of Hurdle starts
9/10 RPR of at least 132
9/10 Raced within the last 45 days
9/10 Won last race
8/10 Rated within 12lbs of RPR Top Rated (Cue Card)

(5/5) Magen's Star, Spirit Son

(4/5) Al Ferof, Gibb River, Rathlin, Recession Proof, Sprinter Sacre, Zaidpour, Marsh Warbler

Betting: Cue Card 5/2fav, Spirit Son 6/1, Al Ferof 10/1, Sprinter Sacre 10/1, Zaidpour 10/1, Recession Proof 11/1,

Others: Magen's Star 22/1, Gibb River 25/1, Marsh Warbler 25/1, Rathlin 50/1

Cue Card fails 2 of the trends, having been beaten by Champion Hurdle favourite last time. I don't think that's fair, I'm more concerned that he hasn't run for 3 months. He should still be the best horse in the race.

Spirit Son has done nothing wrong and hits all 5 trends, however Nicky Henderson hasn't won this since 1992, this could be his best chance and there must be more to come from Spirit Son.

Magen's Star, a mare hits all the trends but surely isn't good enough for this.

Al Ferof, runner-up to Cue Card in last year's Bumper ,isn't good enough in my eyes and is far too short now.

Recession Proof, impressive winner at Newbury hasn't done anything wrong, but whether he 'gets' Cheltenham is an unknown as all his runs have been on flat tacks.

Zaidpour was the great Irish hope but disappointed in his last 2 runs.

Sprinter Sacre needs to improve to win this, and is another Henderson horse.

Gibb River has a squeak each way at a price, but I'm not at all confident. The 3^rd Henderson horse.

Overall, there are no each-way bets advised here. I think Cue Card will win if he's fit enough, and the places filled by Spirit Son and Recession Proof.

Bets:

win: Cue Card, 5/2

2.05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase

2m, Grade 1, £130,000

Trends:10/10 SP not bigger than 9/1.
10/10 Aged 5-8
9/10 Finished in top 2 in all completed Chases (10/10 top 3)
9/10 Rated within 12lbs of the RPR Top-Rated
9/10 RPR of at least 145
9/10 A Best RPR Hurdle rating of at least 143
8/10 3-5 runs over fences
8/10 Won a Novice Chase over 2m-2m1f

(8/8) Finian's Rainbow, Medermit

(7/8) Captain Chris, Ghizao, Realt Dubh

Betting: Medermit 3/1fav, Ghizao 4/1, Finian's Rainbow 5/1, Captain Chris 8/1, Realt Dubh 9/1

The Arkle, for 2m Novice Chasers, seems to go to one of the horses at the front of the betting and the trends don't disagree.

I think Captain Chris is better over further and am surprised he was entered in this.

Finian's Rainbow has won every race but hasn't beaten anything of note in any of them.

Realt Dubh is better with cut in the ground.

Which leaves Medermit and Ghizao to battle it out. I'm with Medermit as Ghizao hasn't run this year. Still looking for that big each-way selection, can't find one, maybe in the handicaps later.

Bets:

win: Medermit, 3/1

2.40 Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase

3m 110y, Grade 3, £75,000

(formally the William Hill Trophy)

Trends:
10/10 Aged 7-10 (no horse aged 11+ placed since 1997)
10/10 Carried less than 10-13
10/10 OR of 129-143 (no winner rated 150+ since 1983)
9/10 Won over 3m or more
9/10 Finished in top 3 in either of last 2 starts

9/10 Top 4 finish last time. (The first 3 in 2010 had all won LTO (from 5 horses)
8/10 No more than 11 chases

(7/7) Adams Island, Slippers Percy

(6/7) Bensalem, Sunnyhillboy, The Rainbow Hunter, Wolf Moon

Betting: Bensalem 6/1jfav, Sunnhillboy 6/1jfav, Great Endeavour 7/1, Reve De Sivola 10/1

Others: Wolf Moon 14/1, Blazing Bailey 14/1Adams Island 20/1, The Rainbow Hunter 25/1, Chief Dan George 25/1, Slippers Percy 66/1

The trends are suggesting you are looking for a horse that has form over 3 miles, carrying less than 11 stone and isn't exposed. But I don't think Slippers Percy, Adams Island and Wolf Moon (from out of the handicap) are good enough.

Sunnyhillboy is a nice weight but is unproven beyond 2m 5f.

Great Endeavour beat Sunnyhillboy in the Byrne Plate last year but is carrying too much weight and again is unproven at the distance.

Bensalem seemed to get lost over fences and is a very short price for this

Reve De Sivola good hurdler, average chaser IMHO.

Blazing Bailey is the best horse in the race, but can't lug top weight and win this... well I don't think so anyway

Chief Dan George won last year but carries too much weight now and is an 11yo which goes against him

The horse I'm interested in is The Rainbow Hunter. Unlucky at Sandown last time when beaten in the run in (that's why he's not 7/7 in the trends), he has a nice weight and is definitely value. I'm a little worried about his lack of 'Class' but he's only had 5 races of the big obstacles and is open to improvement

Bet:

E/W: The Rainbow Hunter, 25/1

3.20 Stan James Champion Hurdle

2m ½f, Grade 3, £370,000

Trends:10/10 Ran within last 51 days
9/10 Aged 6-9
9/10 10-25 runs over hurdles
9/10 Pre-race RPR of at least 156

8/10 Won a Grade 1 Hurdle or Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle
8/10 Top Speed figure of at least 152
8/10 Rated within 7lbs of the RPR Top-rated
8/10 Won LTO

(8/8) Hurricane Fly

(7/8) Peddlers Cross

Betting: Menorah 4/1jfav, Hurricane Fly 4/1jfav, Peddlers Cross 9/2, Oscar Whisky 9/1, Dunguib 10/1, Khyber Kim 12/1

I can't decide what to do. My heart says Peddlers Cross, head says Hurricane Fly and there's Menorah too.

Hurricane Fly is classy, but only beats Solwhit and Thousand Stars, so far. His sire is Montjeu, who has never had a winner at Cheltenham and of course he's never run in the UK.

I really fancy Peddlers Cross to be honest and can't find fault in his form. If Cue Card wins the first then Menorah will start favourite after beating him in December but I think he's short enough already. If Hurricane Fly wins then Thousand Stars come into the reckoning as an each way bet.

Of the others, Dunguib would be a threat if it was softer and he was in better form, Oscar Whisky is too short, Khyber Kim seems to have lost his way but could be worth backing in-running as he will be held-up. Mille Chief has a bit of class about him but this could be too soon in his career for him. Overturn will make it a pacy race and it will be the best race of the festival. Enjoy, whoever you back.

Bets:

Win: Peddlers Cross, 9/2

4.00 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase

3m 7f, £40,000

Trends:6^th year of this race, so trends are not to be over-analysed.
6/6 Winners were trained in Ireland (4 by Enda Bolger)

6/6 Won over 3 miles or more

6/6 OR of 126+
5/6 Won at least 1 of their last 2 outings (last year's winner, A New Story didn't)
5/6 Won a Cross Country race either at Cheltenham or Punchestown (last year's winner hadn't)

(5/5) Garde Champetre

(4/5) L'Ami, A New Story, Another Jewel

Betting: Garde Champetre 5/1fav, L'Ami 13/2, Maljimar 13/2, Sizing Australia 8/1, A New Story 11/1, Another Jewel 16/1, Gullible Gordon 16/1

What a horrible race his is this year. Last year I picked out A New Story just before the race, this year I'm going to spend no time at all on this race as I can't find an edge.

Garde Champetre should be up there and is probably the worthy favourite, no-one else has winning form and only 4 horses have won a big Cross-Country at Cheltenham or Punchestown.

L'Ami is good but not as good as the favourite

Sizing Australia can't beat either of these.

Maljimar is far too short without a win past 2m5f.

A New Story is up 6lbs on last year's win and is a third of the price. Has a chance, but not going to carry my money this year.

Another Jewel was on my shortlist last year but is out of form. He's only win was in the Punchestown Cross Country Chase 14 months ago.

Gullible Gordon is English trained, by Paul Nicholls, and that is a terrible statistic to break. English trainers are 0/50 in the race and Nicholls 0/12. But he has a win this season over 3m3f and if he gets round has place chances.

Bets: (tentative)

E/W: Gullible Gordon, 16/1

4.40 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

2m 4f, Grade 2, £70,000

Quevega has won both renewals of this and is 11/10 fav again.

Betting: Quevega evsfav, Sparky May 9/2, L'Accordioniste 10/1, Banjaxed Girl 14/1, La Vecchia Scuola 22/1, Alasi 33/1

Can't really oppose Quevega, but I will as she's too short for my liking.

Sparky May is also quality, I expect them to both be in the money.

But I've followed Banjaxed Girl and think she's pretty honest. Maybe the fact that Carole's Legacy (who beat her at Kempton) decides to race in the old William Hill Trophy at 2.40 suggests that Quevega will be too good. However I certainly think a place position is up for grabs.

Alasi was beaten by Banjaxed Girl at Sandown and crushed by Sparky May at Ascot which shows that we shouldn't be looking too far down the betting.

L'Accordioniste is unproven past 2m1f and I don't want her here.

Betting: (tentative)

E'W: Banjaxed Girl, 16/1

5.15 Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase

2m 4½ f, Listed Race, £80,000

(formerly the Jewson Novices' Chase run on the thursday)

Trends:
Only 6 renewals.

6/6 Carrying less than 11-02 (no qualifiers this year)

6/6 Top 2 LTO

6/6 Top 4 in all completed jump starts

6/6 Only 1 win over jumps (!!)

5/6 OR of 133-139 (only Divers (132) and Songe (140) miss this)

5/6 Won over 2m2f or further

(5/6) Definity, On Borrowed Wings, Rougham

(4/6) American Trilogy, Osric, Premier Sagas, Quo Video, Tharawaat, Tullamore Dew

Betting: Definity 7/1fav, Tullamore Dew 9/1, Quantitativeeasing 9/1, Divers 10/1, On Borrowed Wings 11/1,

Others: Premier Sagas 16/1, Tharawaat 16/1, Swing Bill 16/1, American Trilogy 18/1, Nadiya De La Vega 20/1, Rougham 20/1, Osric 22/1, Quo Video 80/1

The trends this year are fairly pointless. All horses carry over 11-03. Most are within the OR bracket. And with only 6 renewals I don't want to limit myself to Top 2 LTO etc. I want my horse to have won over 2m2f though, that's for certain.

Definity is a worthy favourite and definitely got stamina in abundance. Nicholls/Walsh combination probably cuts 2-3 pts off his odds though.

Tullamore Dew had my money last year, but that was 80/1+, can't say he'll be carrying it this year as he hasn't beaten too much chasing so far, but we know he handles the course.

Quantitativeeasing has his pick of 5 races and chose this one so connection must think it's his best chance but I opposed him last year and am against him again at the top level.

On Borrowed Wings could be an e/w bet if he goes to 12/1 or bigger in the morning, but at 11/1 isn't in my portfolio.

Rougham beat Osric last time but I think he needs more, not sure I want a front-runner here either.

Nadiya De La Vega was all the rage in the autumn, but was found wanting at this trip and is opposed.

Tharawaat hasn't done much wrong since Christmas but hsn't beaten much either.

Quo Video is surely outclassed

Swing Bill impressed me, whe beating a few Cheltenham sorts in February at Wincanton and a good 3^rd behind Fine Parchment and Tail Of The Bank at Newbury last time could have put him in the frame for this. I definitely want to be on him at 16/1.

Bets:

Win: Definity, 7/1

E/W: Swing Bill 16/1

fingers crossed

Twatter

2010-08-13T00:15:00.000+01:00

Due to extreme times of busyness in my hectic schedule, I've decide to set up a twitter account to post tips within 146 characters via my iphone, I'll still talk shite on here, but at least I can relay my selections while on the road. They should all be up by noon if there are any.

I Am "TheValueHunter"

VH

Part Two

2010-08-06T23:23:00.000+01:00

League One

The lower divisions has so much better value normally, especially when, as a Brentford supporter, you've kind of lived your life there. Maybe the odds-compilers are just lazy. Good, I like lazy, I'm one myself.

First of all, I've backed Brentford, Corals offered 14/1 for promotion, I can't turn that down, we've got more strikers than Arthur Scargill and i think we're better than the 9th we finished last season in a weaker division. Southampton should walk the division with Rickie Lambert banging in 25-30 goals. There is little else to say. On the handicaps Brentford probably offer the best value, but were tipped by the RP
so are now 10/1 (from 18/1) with Bet365. Coral's larger handicaps are a pain, but they aren't too far off in this division tbh and that is probably the best of the rest.

I've backed Yeovil, but wish I hadn't as they are unlikely to improve to much on last year, although they should be safe from promotion. The team that interests me is Walsall (+36, Bet365). I haven't backed them yet, they've lost some players in the summer but I still think Bet365 are wrong with it, I maybe wrong (heaven forbid) and will have to delve into their new signings brfore commiting more money to a 9 month portfolio.

League Two

This looks completely open with 3 favourites depending where you bet.
Morecambe are 20/1 (Stan James), they'll be disappointed with both their start to last season and their play-off performance, but in between they were one of the form sides and I expect them to be there or there abouts again. They are +14 with Betfred.

Torquay finished the season strongly but have now been pounced upon.... they are now 8/1 with Bet365 in the handicap market, I can't recommend them now. Burton Albion looked at home in theri debut season and in Sean Harrad they have a good young striker. I've backed both (obviously in handicap/top scorer markets, doh).

The best match bets I found to combine into multiples were at Ladbrokes nad Bet365

Ladbrokes
Brentford vs Rochdale
Carlisle vs Dagenham
Morecambe vs Bury
Torquay vs Lincoln

Bet365
Morecambe vs Bury
Walsall vs Rochdale
Southampton vs Sheff Wed

Working tomorrow so no tipping of winners for the Scoop6.

2010-11 Starts here

2010-08-06T07:14:00.000+01:00

Is Paktalos still running, probably. I didn't see the race, so my TV is still in tact, very disappointing. So lets look forward to the new football season.

The Racing Post did their usual 72 page pullout on bets for the new season, not a bad write up, some of my bets were in there which is a bit shit.... I was very comforted that Mark Langdon, their best pundit, was on board, did you know he tipped Spain to win the World Cup.... well done Mark top tipping, very left-field tip, cheers. Surprisingly he didn't recommend Chelsea to win the Premiership, but went for Arsenal @ 7/1... can't touch that one.

Premiership
As usual there is very little value in the outright market. Laying Man City at a ridiculous 7.0 is probably the best bet. There are some seriously deluded people out there. It could be a much tighter race this season and it may help the handicaps as I can't see the winner getting 90 points. 85 would be nearer the mark which puts a host of teams around +38 neading 47 pts to be in with a shout of wnning in the handicap market.

In the last 2 seasons. I've found the winner in Fulham and Birmingham.

The 3 teams I like this year are all underrated by the bookies. The best bet is Everton +24 (Coral, 15/1), +23 (Stan James, 14/1 and Ladbrokes 12/1) I've backed them with SJ as Corals handicaps are big, which means some other bugger has a big handicap behind them. Ladbrokes are the tightest, but SJ isn't too far behind on that. Everton had some bad injuries at the start of last season and they finished strongly. Assuming they improve on 61 pts, that puts them in the 85+ points range.

Stoke are hard to beat and +40 (Bet365, 15/1) or preferably +39 (Stan James, 18/1) is still pretty high, Blackburn are in the same boat, Sam Alladyce has made them hard to beat and they can improve from last years 50pts. They are +40 with Betfred @ 15/1.

Championship
I've already given Bristol City and Reading as my outsiders for the season. I'm still in love with Doncaster in the handicaps. They are just underrated by the bookies, although the RP has picked up on it this year. +26 with vcbet, +28 with Corals. Barnsley under Mark Robins were the form team just after he took over before falling away at the end of the season, They are also underrated at are worth a bet in the handicap, the RP has tipped them as well (great minds really DO think alike), +28 with Ladbrokes and +30 with Corals.

I rated Scunthorpe last year, but they look to have a stuggle on their hands after losing half of their team in the summer, they look doomed and I've taken relegation doubles alongside Dagenham & Redbridge and Rochdale, more about them later in part two.

Waffles for breakfast

2010-08-01T10:16:00.000+01:00

Finally I get a nice relaxing morning and something to yak about. The World Cup is out of the way, what a pile of crap that was, football is on the whole.... SHIT.... overhyped by Sky, the BBC and the Sun.... I've been looking at some bets for the season and to be honest am struggling to find any value. I've backed Morecambe (20/1), Reading (14/1) and Bristol City (20/1) so far.

Morecambe made such a sluggish start last season, no wins in the first 6 games or so, but still finished 4th. Unfortunately they got humped by Dagenham & Redbridge. Sammy McIlroy won't allow them to start slowly again and as long as the scars of that 6-0 thumping are healed, 20/1 is excellent value.

I've mainly backed Reading and Bristol City because of their managers. Brian McDermott took Reading from being relegation-threatened to playoff-chasing in half a season and the momentum of that should hold them in good stead. City have super Steve Coppell in charge and having snapped up David James, look to have the money behind to push for promotion. Coppell knows how to win the division and I expect the 20/1 to be shorter by the time the Racing Post pull-out arrives on wednesday. I've also backed those 2 for promotion at 4/1 and 6/1 respectively.

Horses now

I felt like I was in a bit better form in the last 2 weeks although Goodwood was tough for my type of betting, I'm just counting down the days to the proper racing starts, hopefully I have a bet today.

Chester 5.10
Paktolos (18/1, vcbet) is more of an all-weather horse, but ran well at York last weekend. In stall 2 here and is still a big price, I'm looking for a big run and expect a return on my money.

Back With A Bang

2010-06-05T01:22:00.001+01:00

Hi there all,

Time to get back on the horse. A piss poor Aintree made up my mind to take May (and the rest of April) off. It's never a particularly profitable time for me, with the end of the jumps and the start of the flat/summer jumps. Good job too as you'd have lost a shitload. I'm still a bit hit and miss, but its Derby Day so I should take on a very open looking renewal at try and find the winner.

1.40 Vincent O'Brien Handicap.

Arlequin (10/1) looks a good type for the opener. Won at York last month and although he's gone up 11lbs for that, there could be more to come. James Bethell has got his 3yo's firing after a tough winter and Phillip Robinson is in excellent form with 12 wins from 47 rides this season, top stuff by anyone's standards. I expect the 10/1 to disappear before the morning is out.

3.15 Investic Dash (Heritage Handicap)
Great race, lots of trouble in running and hopefully a big-priced winner. Moorhouse Lad (16/1, general) won at Musselburgh 5 weeks ago, this is tougher but this is a former Group 3 winner and can run well at a decent price, Brian Smart has an 18% strike-rate this season. I'm also sweet on Judge 'N' Jury (25/1, vcbet, Lad) who has been running under the radar recently after an excellent 2008 and some decent results last year. Phillip Robinson is on board this too.

4.00 Investec Derby

This doesn't look to be the greatest of renewals. It's probably best to stick to the horses at the top of the market as they have provided the winner over the last decade. Jan Vermeer (11/4f, William Hill), Midas Touch (7/1, Ladbrokes) and Bullet Train (15/2, Coral, Bet365, Skybet) look to have the credentials to be the winner but it looks a race to steer clear of to me. Of the bigger priced horses, Azmeel (12/1, general) looks to have improved as a 3yo and could make the frame. Ted Spread (33/1, general) improved LTO but would provide a massive shock if he won this. Rewilding would be a trendbreaker if he won this, but he looked pretty good on his UK debut and I wouldn't rule out. A horrible race this year and best to keep to fun stakes.

That's it I think, can't see much value in the last two races.

World Cup Bets

I've been looking at the Top Scorer markets for each team. The standout bet was Stanislav Sestak of Slovakia. Slovakia are in Group F with Italy, Paraguay and New Zealand. Slovakia are no mugs and definitely have a chance of qualifying. But we don't care if they qualify or not, we just want our man to score the most goals for Slovakia. Sestak has 10 goals from 29 Caps. Not bad, but he scored almost half of their qualifying goals and ended the campaign with 6 goals in 6 games. and he was only on the field for 469 mins in those games. He's 11/4 with sportingbet and Totesport.

The value bet is at Coral, where they are offering 28/1 on there being no scorer for Switzerland. Now Switzerland can easily fail to score in 3 games, they are pretty average. Spain and Chile should cause them all sorts of problems and their game against Honduras is the 3rd of the group where nil points and nil goals could already be on the cards. This is at altitude and Honduras are no mugs.

Mexico (13/8, bet365) should see off South Africa in the opening game and South Korea (21/10, bet365) can beat Greece the next day at a decent price. South Korea are my dark horses to qualify in Group B.

Aintree -Day Three

2010-04-10T00:25:00.000+01:00

a totally shit day today.... Looks like we must avoid horses that did well at Cheltenham as its taken a lot out of them and Aintree is an afterthought for many..... gonna bypass tomorrow as its an early start for me on GN day..

You have the trends for the National... so hopefully we'll have a result there..

good luck for tomorrow..
VH

Aintree - Day Two

2010-04-09T11:43:00.000+01:00

Not the greatest day yesterday, got out of Jail with Sir Harry Ormesher winning the last and What A Friend coming in too, so we should have a little money for today.

2.00 - John Smith's Top Novices' Hurdle

This should all be about Menorah (6/4f) who won the Supreme Novice's Hurdle at Cheltenham. I won't put you off him but surprise winners at Cheltenham don't often follow up at Aintree. I saw Escort'Men (11/4)hack up at Kempton and there must be more to come from the Nicholls/Walsh combination. La Sarrazine (11/2) seems to be well regarded and has avoided the limelight so far. He may be come up a little short but until we see it we can't really tell, the 4/1-9/2 generally around is far too short. General Miller (12/1) decided to depart at the first fence of the Festival. There was money for him that day and the bookies aren't giving too much away today. Outsider Washington Irvine (25/1) could be the forgotten horse, he didn't run at Cheltenham but is similar to La Sarazine. The former Group 1 flat racer needs to prove he can hack it at the highest level, 25/1 is overpricing him though. I may be tempted.

2.35 - Mildmay Novices' Chase

Burton Port (5/2f) is up and coming, a worthy favourite with an excellent 2nd in the RSA Chase. Ogee (9/2) was pricewised last time and he just failed to beat Chief Dan George and The Package in the William Hill Trophy. Both of these should be up there. Not really anything each-wayable. Khachaturian (12/1) is an honest enough front-runner, but is likely to set up the race for something else. I backed Door Boy (16/1) at Cheltenham, but he isn't suited to this imho.

3.10 - John Smith's Melling Chase

Forpadydeplaster (5/1) and Kalahari King (4/1f) renew rivalries here. Pady has beaten him twice and should come on for his Cheltenham 2nd, yet KK is favourite... hmmmm. KK does like Aintree, but he was seriously under par at Cheltenham with ground that should have suited. It definitely does today, but I'd rather be with Pady. Throw in Albertas Run (15/2), Poquelin (6/1), Monet's Garden (8/1) and Deep Purple (9/1) and you probably have the best race at the the meeting. There is nothing else to say really. Schinfdler's Hunt (16/1) was shite at Cheltenham but is a better horse than that day. Sit back and enjoy this race.

3.45 Topham Handicap Chase

Super, a 28 runner handicap to get my teeth into. With Scotsirish (20/1) being by far the best horse in the race, most of the field will be running from out of the handicap. I'm going to concentrate on the bottom 20 or so... just kidding. I'll start at the bottom and look to back 2-4 horses. Garleton, Oulart, Boomshakalaka, Pomme Tiepy, Commemoration Day and Gaora Lane are too far out of the handicap imho and I will leave them alone. Pak Jack (20/1) has had his moments in the past and has now got his ground. I certainly think he has a big run in him. Quilmar (22/1) is 6 but has plenty of experience, hasn't run on ground as fast as this, but if he goes on it is pretty interesting. Wee Robbie (20/1) has been running in some big races this season, this is more like his sort of race and I won't put you off. He runs better on Good-Soft but is ok on Good. Zacharova (100/1) doesn't do it in big fields, so should be ignored. Oodachee (16/1) was 2nd last year, he's now 11 and hasn't won any money this year, probably best watched.

You need experience of big fields and more than a little luck. A very hard race to pick the winner and I'm always a bottom of the handicap sort of guy, so apologies if something up the top comes along and wins but it shouldn't. I'm probably on Wee Robbie, Quilmar and Pak Jack.

4.20 - Sefton Novice's Hurdle

Right, lets get this out of the way first. I've followed Channinbar for about 6 months. The first time he placed at big odds, he then did bugger all at shorter odds, then he wins after I don't back him. I've then decided that he should be followed and he pulls-up. You out pal.... no more...... Channinbar hosed up at 20/1 yesterday.
I know I'm right, I just need to be right at the right time. So apologies if I channel all by pain into stupidly following Chimirey in this. He was 3rd at Cheltenham @ 33/1 and I was on, but it covered my other bets in the race. If he's come out of Cheltenham ok then he'll be up there. I'll give Western Leader (11/2) a thumbs up too, but i'm focussed on Chimirey here. Probably best to ignore my thoughts and back what you want. Chimirey WILL win a race at nice odds, let's hope its this one.

4.55 - John Smitrh's Handicap Hurdle

Whinestone Boy (14/1) was secretly fancied for the National and this is a poor consolation. I think the bookies have shortened him up because they're afraid. Its not often I big up a favourite, but Cross Kennon (9/1f) does look a good think at an ok price, he's not each way able so I will try and find some value. Clova Island is stepped up to 3 miles. He's been my friend this season. 14/1 is a fair price but nothing exceptional in that respect. Wow I think I've found a decent thing at 25/1. Not sure why Dancing Dik is 25/1. Form at the distance, form on the ground, not got the Class 1 form but how many do. A good 2nd at Newcastle LTO could be the springboard for a shock. Definitely a placepot pick with the other 2.

5.30 National Hunt Flat Race

The 40/1 winner of the Cheltenham Bumper bashed up all the trends, none of those runners are here. I don't like short priced rookies. The bookies have all the form in the book and there is little value in them. Personally I think its a stay away race, especially if we have bookies money in the bank. A small cheeky bet on Lovey Dovey (22/1) may be preferred but I'm only saying it because I feel I have to say something. A win on Good ground is all we have to go on, but I'm happy to bet it to small stakes.

Selections:
2.00
Win: Menorah @ 13/8fav
E/W: Washington Irvine @ 25/1 (general)

2.35
Win: Burton Port @ 3/1fav (stan James)
E/W: Khachaturian @ 14/1 (Bet365, William Hill)

3.20
No Bet

3.45
E/W: Wee Robbie @ 20/1 (Bet365)
E/W: Quilimar @ 20/1 (Bet365, PaddyPower - both 5 places)
E:W: Pak Jack @ 20/1 (general, but get 5 places)

4.20
Win: Western Leader @ 11/2fav
E/W: Chimirey @ 12/1 (general, Bet365 and Ladbrokes are 1/4 odds)

4.55
Win: Cross Kennon @ 9/1fav (general)
E/W: Dancing Dik @ 25/1 (bet365, Coral)
E/W: Clova Island @ 14/1 (Bet365, Sportingbet, Coral)

5.30
E/W: Lovey Dovey @ 22/1 (Sportingbet, Coral)

Fingers crossed
VH

Aintree - Day One

2010-04-08T12:30:00.000+01:00

The last good stuff of the year as far as I'm concerned. The Aintree Festival. Lots of value around normally as Cheltenham winners are horribly short for winning at the races they've been aimed for and some are put in here as an afterthought. There are some exceptions of course and the first is in the first race.

2.00 Liverpool Hurdle
Big Buck's will win off level weights, but at 1/3 he should do. World Hurdle runner-up Time For Rupert is a non-runner, so if there's any value to be had it's elsewhere. Tidal Bay flopped at Cheltenham, but has always preferred Aintree. He's 5/1 so you are getting your money back if he places, and that is of little interest to me. I've followed Bouggler (16/1) and I like him, but he looks one for next season. There are other winners around, but look best watched. If I have a bet it will be on Kayf Aramis (25/1) or (8/1 w/o Big Buck's). He's solid and runs on any ground and will be gunning for a place. Whether he's good enough to do that is a different matter but if I have a bet it will be on him.

2.35 4yo Novices' Hurdle
This looks a race for the favourites and escpecially horses that have run at Cheltenham with 9/10 winners running there and also finishing in the top 2 in either of their last 2 starts (8/10)

Sanctuaire (2/1f) was one of the few favourites to win at Cheltenham, although he was punted heavily on course to do so. He's a little short although a worthy favourite. He beat Notus De La Tour (17/2) by about 9 lengths that day. He's weighted to get closer today and will be up there. Barizan ran superbly for me/us the other week, nailed over the last but he kept plugging on anfter his tired error at the final fence. Now he's 6/1, he's not worth backing but I'll be cheering him on. Super Kenny (5/1) has been talked about for a while and won nicely on his belated debut last month. I can't find an each-way alternative so its not really a betting race for me.

3.10 Totesport Bowl
Imperial Commander (11/10) is the the horse of the day (unfair on Big Buck's perhaps), but the press and bookies are keen to get him beat. Calgary Bay (18/1) is Pricewise's tip. The horse that I would be interested in is What A Friend (100/30), who missed Cheltenham to win this. Nacarat (9/2) and Carruthers (14/1) have had hard front-running races recently and are targets for the others

3.45 Foxhunter's Chase
The top 3 in the market has provided 9/10 winners over the last decade. The biggest priced winner was 8/1 in that time.

Baby Run is looking for the Foxhunter double and I expect him to run really well, but 7/2 is no price in a 21 runner field. The horse that was 3rd that day @ 66/1 was Reach For The Top. I think that was a really good performance and he's still available at 18/1 today. I think that could be excellent value as Baby Run could be targetted by the others if he front runs.

4.20 Red Rum Handicap Chase
A really competative race with a number reopposing each other after a super Grand Annual race won by outsider Pigeron Island. He's happy to run as muh as possible so a 3 week break is no problem, however I have no idea how he won that day and It probably says a lot for the opposition. He's now 8/1 and can't be worth it at that price.
The Grand Annual provides a few winners of this and you won't find many big-priced winners either, so stick to the single figure prices. Consigliere (15/2fav) was unlucky in that race and I'd rather be with him but he's carrying a chunky weight. Safari Journey (8/1) is 8lbs better off today but is priced up accordingly. Nikola (16/1) isn't weighted that favourably but was out of the handicap last time. If he races a bit better this time he may be produced later as he blew up after a mistake 3 out. Chapoturgeon (9/1) has been done up like a kipper by the handicapper and he's still in his grip. He's a very good horse but it will take a fantastic performance carrying top weight here. I'd be suprised if anything else wins this, but if it does I'm not confident of finding it. Safari Journey is a tentative pick.

4.55 Manifesto Novices' Handicap Chase
The Nightingale (11/4) ran well at Kempton (beating Othermix) and missed Cheltenham. It will take a lot to beat Somersby (11/8f) though as he could have beaten an idling Sizing Europe in the Arkle with another 50 yards. Mad Max (11/2) is too short although he was travelling well (was 4th) in the same race before blundering badly coming round the back turn. He battled back well but isn't as good as the other two. Hey Big Spender (8/1) blundered at Cheltenham, while Othermix (22/1) was finishing 2nd, he's as honest as they come but must be outclassed here.

5.30 Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle
Ainama (5/1fav) disappointed at Cheltenham, he's better than that but is short enough for a horse who hasn't won for 7 races. A very competative handicap, I'm looking for something low down the handicap that didn't run at Cheltenham. Majaales (16/1) won comfortably last weekend and I'm fairly keen on him although he should be better next season. Maraafeq (22/1) has won his last 2 races, but this is tougher as you would expect, I think he'll be up there.

Of those Cheltenham horses, Silverhand (11/1) could be considered unlucky after being hampered when he was about to get in the mix, but 11/1 isn't e/w for me so I will pass him over. Sir Harry Ormesher (18/1) was 7th in that race but was another doing his best towards the end, a better ride today could se him up and abouts. Pascha Bere (40/1) had it all to do last time. He's a better horse than that, and I want to see him a bit closer today. The horse I'm going to recommend is Pagan Starprincess (28/1). She's veey consistent, runs on any ground and is on a decent weight here. First time headgear applied today. In a cometative race I think she could do us proud. Pascha Bere's price is too big at 40/1 but is much more speculative.

Selections (my win bets are @ 3/1 or more and each-way bets @ 12/1 or more in 7+ runner races
2.00
WIn: Big Buck's 1/3fav
breaking news only 7 runners so no e/w bet on Kayf Aramis

2.35
No Bet

3.10
Win: What A Friend @ 100/30 (Bet365)

3.45
E/W: Reach For The Top @ 18/1 (Bet365, Stan James)
4 places available 16/1 (sportingbet) 1/5 odds and 14/1 PaddyPower, Skybet 1/4odds

4.20
Win: Safari Joutrney @ 8/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, VCBet, Bet365) small stakes advised

4.55
Win: Somersby @ 11/8fav

5.30
E/W: Pagan Starprincess @ 25/1 (general)
Other possible E/W: Sir Harry Ormesher @ 20/1 (sportingbet); Marafeeq @22/1 (spbet, SJ), Majaales @ 16/1 (general), Pascha Bere @ 40/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, VCBet, Bet365), South O'The Border @ 33/1 (gen)

Good Luck
VH

Grand National Trends - Class and all the others

2010-04-08T00:49:00.001+01:00

34 was it?

Class
Right. Class is important. Party Politics (1992) was the last horse that hadn't won a race worth £17,000 to the winner.

Horses without the right class to win this are: King John's Castle, Abbeybraney, Flintoff, Oodachee, Officer De Reserve.

This leaves 29.

Big Race Performance
It has come to light from a fellow bettor that since 1989 (yes that bloody Little Polveir buggered up some nice trends that year)... where was I... yes... Since 1989, every winner has done well in a big race. Where big race is a top 3 finish in one of the National Nationals... Irish, Welsh or Scottish. A top 5 finish in the Henessey at Newbury, a top 2 finish over the big Aintree fences or had at least won 3 Chases over 3m (incl. 1 over 3m4+). I've had a look and its competely true, so it seems a good place to start.

Out:
Don't Push It, Cloudy Lane, Nozic, Ballyholland, Can't Buy Time, Beat The Boys, Preists Leap, Snowy Morning, Big Fella Thanks, Ellerslie George, Conna Castle, Ballyfitz, Arbor Supreme, Royal Rosa, Chief Dan George and Offshore Account

Great 16 gone, 13 remain and Ballytrim isn't going to run so a nice round 12 left.

Finally, the Racing Post records only go back 20 years, so the following 2 trends are at least good for the last 20 years. They are: every winner has run between 16-49 days ago and every winner has finished in the top3 at least once in its last 3 races, proving they are in some sort of form.

We can now get rid of the following:
State Of Play (133 days)
Irish Raptor (126 days)
Ollie Magern (form of 467)
Hello Bud (form U87)
My Will (form 757)

Hurray, we now have 7 horses that fit all the trends and I will go through any negatives they have

7 Comply Or Die (22/1, William Hill)
Winner in 2008 and Runner-up in 2009. Is borderline carrying 11-05 round Aintree and never one to show great form in the build-up to the race, but write him off at your peril. Timmy Murphy chose him over The Package today.

9 Niche Market (18/1, Bet365, Totesport, William Hill)
Can't find fault with him really. Ran a superb 3rd in this season's Henessey and was 2nd in the AON Chase in February. Only 9th at Cheltenham behind Chief Day George, The Package, Offshore Account and Ollie Magern, however he made a couple of mistakes while beaten. Will have to carry 11-04 round here and there may be one or two too good.

11 Dream Alliance (40/1, Bet365, Betfred, William Hill, Ladbrokes)
Another carrying a little too much than is ideal. Could be the fairytale winner of the National as his owners are from a working men's club in a small village in Wales and have signed up to a deal to make a film of the horse after he came back from terrible injuries to win the Welsh National at Christmas. Also ran a solid 2nd to Denman in the 2007 Henessey.

24 Character Building (20/1, Betfred, Sportingbet, coral, Ladbrokes)
The perfect horse at the perfect weight. Won The Kim Muir at Cheltenham in 2009, however his 2 runs this seson have hardly set the world alight. Was 12th In the William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham, even behind Niche Market. He was bought last week by the same people who bought Party Politics 3 days before his 1992 win.

26 Eric's Charm (50/1, general)
Being 12yo is a bit of a negative but at least he's in form, winning his last 2 races, including a Veteran's Handicap in March, beating Knowhere.

36 Mr Pointment (125/1, Sportingbet)
What can I say. A former Paul Nicholls Grand National Ante-Post Favourite in 2008. This horse has gone backwards ever since he was leading that race until fence 24 (pulled-up going backwards). Ran in the Gold Cup, but only 2 runs in the last 16 months has got to be a big negative. If he comes back to his form of 2007 then he may have a chance, but I would personally avoid him like the plague.

44 Knowhere (100/1, general)
Unlikely to get in and will be one of the reserves until Friday if he doesn't. Anoother 12yo who could get a place if he ran up to his best form.

There you have it, the 7 alleged winners of the Grand National, I will try and write up a couple of lines on all 40 runners if I have time.

Currently there are a number of bookies running to 5 places. They are Bet365, Boylesports, VCbet, Bluesq and Paddy Power. On the day the bookies may stretch to 6 places so it may be worth looking out for those at http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/grand-national, however the bookies that only pay 4 places may well have better prices so its a bit of a trade off.

The first day of the Aintree meeting starts tomorrow. If I fancy anything it will be up before noon.

Good Luck!!
VH

Grand National Trends - Stamina

2010-04-06T23:11:00.000+01:00

46 horses remain... On monday we lost 10 horses at the 5-day declaration stage.

Notre Pere (too much weight), Deutchsland (age), Dooneys Gate (experience), Anothercoppercoast and Cossack Dancer (OR below 135) were already out.

Air Force One, Chelsea Harbour, Equus Maximus, Lennon and Razor Royale reduce the 'winners' to 41.

The last horse to have not previously won at 3 miles or more was Gay Trip in 1970. Every winner since has winning experience at 3 miles or more. Obviously this is a 4 1/2m race so stamina is very important.

Of the remaining 41 horses, Made In Taipan, Pablo Du Charmil, Maljimar, Cerium (5th last year), Faasel, Duers and Pak Jack have not won a race over 3 miles.

Both Ballyholland and Conna Castle have 3m Point To Point wins and stay in for now.

34 remain.

2010-03-27T10:20:00.000Z

With all the rain around some of the horses I'd have backed on better ground can run and win (or lose) now its a bit wetter.

The only value bet I'm having is on Rimsky (2.45 Newbury). Rimsky's problem is he doesn't win very often. He hasn't won for over 2 years, but he's been slogging it out over these longer distances in all sorts of ground and looks a fair each way bet at 16/1 for a place.

First Day of the "Flat Season" boo

2010-03-27T08:35:00.000Z

With just Aintree to come, the end of the season is nearly upon us, and then the boring Flat season starts. Having had a pretty poor week since saturday (thursdays ran poorly and I won't blame the ground this time), I'm thinking of keeping my powder dry until then. And when Aintree is out of the way, staying away some more. The old adage about the stock market was "Sell in May and go away, come back in September", well I won't go to those extremes, but May is usually a proper shit month with dodgy summer jumps horses out and the start of the flat season with horses you have no idea are fit or not. It may be a month for laying short-priced favourites, especially 2-3yos, but we'll see.

3.10 Lincoln Handicap
This is the Blue Riband event and heralds the start of the new yawn.. sorry... dawn. Its a 1m handicap over Doncaster's straight mile. The 2.00 Spring Mile, for horses who couldn't get into this race, could have a huge bearing over the draw bias, so watch this race for clues.

The race was ran at Redcar (2006) and Newcastle (2007) while Doncaster was being redeveloped.

The 10 year trends are fairly strong clues to the winner.

Aged 4-6 (10/10)
Actually, being 4-5 yo is stronger as they have won 8/10, but we'll keep 6yo in for now.
Out: Advanced (7) and Collateral Damage (7).

Carrying 9st or less (9/10)
Weight is deinitely an issue with only 1 winner lumping more than 9st. Extraterrestrial's jockey carries a 7lb claim, so he is ok.
Out: Mia's Boy, Penitent (fav), Dubai's Touch, Vitznau, Smokey Oakey

A win over 1 mile (9/10)
Obviously if you haven't won over a mile, its gonna be hard to win this over a mile. The only hope you may have is if you are an unexposed horse upping trip. However we will remove those because we are nasty buggers. I will leave in those who have won at more than 1m but not 1m.
Out: Harrison George, Ishetoo, Prime Exhibit.
Albaqaa has won over 9f and 10f and Full Toss has wins between 9-11f.

Rule out exposed horses (8/10)
You want up and coming horses not those in the grip of the handicapper. Horses with 15 or fewer runs have won 8/10 renewals.
Out: Albaqaa (22), Lang Shining (18) Full Toss (23), Huzzah (24), Kaolak (19), Mister Hardy (33)

Horse with ticks in all the boxes
4/4 Mull Of Killough (11/1), Tiger Reigns (12/1), Viva Vettori (18/1) and Reve De Nuit (80/1)
Also
3/4 Extraterrestrial, Lang Shining, Huzzah, Kaolak, Mister Hardy, Prime Exhibit

The ground is soft, and of the 10 horses above,

Mull Of Killough (0) Never run on worse than Good ground.
Reve De Nuit (0) All 4 runs have been on the All Weather
Lang Shining (1/1) Won a 17 runner affair at Newbury in 2008. His only run on soft.
Tiger Reigns (2/2) Won both runs on soft however Michael Dods thinks this has come 2 weeks too soon.
Huzzah (0/3)
Kaolak (0/1)
Mister Hardy (1/4)
Viva Vettori (0/1) Great AW form, but unproven on soft. Only run was 3rd on debut @ 40/1
Prime Exhibit (0/2)

If you want to ignore the trends, Collateral Damage (16/1) has 5 wins and 3 places from 10 runs on soft.

If I'm going to go for one, it's going to be Viva Vettori, however I'd like to know what happens at 2pm and I'll be in the pub by then.

Dodgy tips up next..

Grand National Trends - Weight and Official Rating

2010-03-26T00:22:00.001Z

"Weight stops trains" apparently, I don't necessarily agree.... however in the Grand National It is almost probably true. The best horses carry the most weight and are the classiest horses in the race, but they carry too much to win and having to lug between 12-22 lbs more than the horses at the bottom of the handicap over 4m4f is going to take its toll....

Red Rum won the race 3 times and was 2nd on the other 2 occasions. He's the ony horse since 1957 to carry more than 11st 5lbs and win the race. Only 1 horse (Hedgehunter, 11-01) has won carrying more than 11st since Corbiere (11-03) in 1983.

There is now more of a problem. Until recently the National didn't attract the quality of horses it does now, 100+ entries are the norm now. Previously there would be fewer entries and horses would get in at 10 stone and plenty would run from "out of the handicap" (ie rated to carry less than the minimum weight of 10 stone) (Bobbyjo, 1999 and Lord Gyllene, 1997 won this way). Now the bottom weight will carry about 10-07, 10-06 or so and the difference between top and bottom weights is around 5-6lbs closer. We now have to raise the weights that the winner could possibly carry by the same 5-6lbs. Thankfully this ties in well with the Official Rating this year.

The winners of the Grand National have all been within the OR of 135-153 since 1989 (bar 1). Now that is a fairly huge range but it rules out the good and crap horses. Royal Athlete won off 155, that was pretty amazing as he only carried 10-06, so he was rated 18lbs less than the top weight, Master Oats (OR 173). This years race has Madison Du Berlais (11-10, OR 158) and Notre Pere (11-10, OR 158) and 4 other horses carrying more than 11-05 and happily their OR is also 154+. Almost perfect. The 'crap' horses won't get in but we still need to get rid of them.

Out
Carrying more than 11-05 (OR of 154+) (6 horses)
Madison Du Berlais, Notre Pere, Mon Mome, Black Apalachi, Joe Lively, Vic Venturi

Official Rating less than 135 (10 horses)
King's Advocate, Anothercoppercoast, Merigo, Chiaro, According To John, Lorum Leader, Over The Creek, Cossack Dancer, Wee Robbie, Offaly

If Madison Du Berlais and Notre Pere both don't run, Mon Mome will become the new top weight and carry 11-10, and every horse will move up 3lbs in weight and we may have to revisit this.

Ideally you should still be looking at horses carrying 11st or less in the race but we don't want to rule out a possibly winner

46 horses remain. Next I think we'll try to knock out horses who haven't won over 3 miles. After all if you haven't won at 3 miles or more, how can you win at 4m4f.

Value bet

2010-03-25T10:12:00.000Z

Ayr 2.10

Odds-on favourite Meridiam City looks nailed on for this, however he's too short at 4/9. Interesting each-way steal is Flaming Thistle, who has, on paper, had 2 disappointing runs. However he improved from his debut run with a decent 6th, last time and the good ground will suit him better. Flaming Thistle is available at 14/1 from bet365, hopefully you can get some too.

Grand National Trends - Age and Experience

2010-03-25T09:09:00.002Z

The Grand National is just over 2 weeks away and now is the time to whittle the 75 (current) entries down to something more managable like 5. I'm sure this is written every year, but the GN is the most unique race in the world. Its a handicap run over the extremes of 4m4f and 30 pretty tough fences with a probable field of 40 runners. You need luck, skill and a horse with a good engine, but the same things seem to happen year by year. Today we are going to take out horses whose proflie hasn't won for a pretty long time.

List of entries:

Age
The Grand National has been run since 1840 and in this time the age of the winning horses has varied between 5 and 15. However 5yo aren't allowed to run any more and now that the race is hugely competative, no horse younger than 8 has won since 1940 when Bogskar triumphed. Sergeant Murphy (aged 13) won the race in 1923. Every winner in the last 69 years has been aged between 8-12.

In the last 10 years there have been 39 horses aged 6-7 & 13+ and none have placed, not one. Young horses haven't built up the required stamina to win this race, older horses have the stamina, but are on the downgrade and aren't fast enough to compete at the top end. In fact 12yo horses have a poor record as well, just 1 win and 1 place from 29 runners. Amberleigh House (12) won in 2004, but he was trained by Ginger McCain (Red Rum's trainer) and had a much better profile than many 12yo's. I will keep in 12yo but they should generally be opposed.

The best ages for a winner is 9 and 10, having won 11 of the last 14 races. This year we can scratch out a number of horses, including Cheltenham Gold Cup flop and former favourite, Tricky Trickster.

Out (9 horses)
6yo Galant Nuit
7yo Tricky Trickster, Deutschland, Piraya, The Package, Palypso De Creek, Belon Gale, Pomme Tiepy
13yo Silver Birch (2007 winner)

Experience
Horses that win the Grand National have to have experience of jumping fences. Obviously horses that are younger won't have that experience, if you think that Tricky Trickster has raced only 6 times over fences, you'll know what a strange over-hyped favourite he was for this race.

Miinnehoma (1994) won the Grand National on his 10th chase start. Even that is quite unusual, since then, the minimum amount has been 10, but for this case I will keep in the 9s just in case the horses run again in the next 2 weeks.

Out (4 horses)
Horses with less than 9 chase starts:
Backstage (8), Dooneys Gate (6), Whinestone Boy (6), Treacle (8). We've already lost Tricky Trickster (6), Deutchland (8), The Package (8), Galent Nuit (8) and Belon Gale (7), but this is double bubble if you like.

Horses with 9 chase starts:
Ballyfitz, Equus Maximus, Abbeybraney, Offaly.
These can be considered for removal and hopefully we'll find other trends to remove them later.

There is no upper limit to the amount of races a horse has, although they'll generally be older and more exposed and probably in the handicapper's grip. Monty's Pass (41) and Amberleigh House (34) have to most in the last 20 years.

62 horses left, next time, we'll address the weight trend.

Sweating out a hangover

2010-03-20T11:24:00.000Z

No bets today....

Stuck at work with a couple of placepots as my only source of entertainment, anyone got a cure for too much Guinness and Champers.

Cheltenham Aftermath

2010-03-19T23:13:00.001Z

I hope you had a good day yesterday with Barazan (14/1, 2nd) and Bertie's Dream winning @ 33/1. Carruthers got done on the line by Mon Mome , so we only got 1 bet in (instead of all 3).

I hope you can forgive the spelling mistakes as I had to put out the blog asap Had a look tomorrow and can fancy L'Aventure @ 25/1 to win the Midands National. I believe I backed Russian Trigger to win last years. L'Aventure is a pain in the arse, but I know she can win, whether it's this race is debatable. Her price is too big, but that's not a guarantee..

I'd rather keep my powder dry , but value is value...

Cheltenham Day Four

2010-03-19T11:34:00.002Z

Cheltenham Day Four

The final day and an ok day yeterday, Alberta's Run winning @ 14/1 (was 20/1) and a placed horse in every race.

Managesd to have a computer crash this morning so am well behind. Am just going to put up the best trends horses and my selections.

1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle

Trends:

10/10 Last run between 19-55 days

10-10 Between 2-6 run

9/10 Won LTO

9/10 Won at least half of hurdle runs

9/10 By a Group 1 flat winning sire

8/10 RPR of at least 123

6/6 Advisor, (13/2) Alavain (9/2), Carlito Brigante (4/1f)

5/6 Olofi (12/1) , Pitoni (16/1), Soldatino (11/2), Blue Nymph (66/1)

Pricewise has tipped Olofi (20/1 into 12/1) I still want to be with him but he offers no value. Think he will steam into about 9/1. A case can easily be made for all three of the trend horses and I think they will all be up there. I'm going to back a huge priced horse to break them up. Its Barizan (28/1). He's got good form at this level, at Cheltenham and is good on all ground.

Selections:

E/W: Barizan @ 28/1 (general)

2.05 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

Trends:

9/10 4-16 Hurdle runs

9/10 OR of 128-144

9/10 Carrying less than 11-02

9-10 Ran less than 36 days ago

9/10 Not run at a previous festival

9/10 SP shorter than 20/1

Also: 17/30 placed horses were 25/1 or bigger

Unfortunatly these trends took too much time to do, so I've skipped them. You should avoid the top 4 on the racecard as they are carrying too much weight. The Racing Post say that Bellvano (10/1), Tawaagg (12/1), Eradicate (12/1), Tito Bustillo and Inventor (25/1) have strong trends, with Tito Bustillo (9/1fav) their call.

I've followed Oldrik for the last 2 runs where he was 5th (placed with bet365) and 2nd. He doesn't win too much now and is 11/1 so not an e/w price for me. Very competative market, 7 horses 12/1 or shorter, big e/w selections aplenty. Marodima (50/1) carries too much weight but really shouldn't be the price he is. I'd hope for a place, but can't guarantee a good run. Pasha Bere (50/1) carries no weight and is ultra-consistent, is another big price and Keki Buku (40/1) is a much better horse than this price, but has disappointed at Cheltenham in his 3 runs. Basically there may well be a big priced winner here but bets should be at the minimum.

Selections:

Win: Oldrik @ 11/1 (bet365) [e/w if 12/1+]

E/W: Keki Buku @ 40/1

E/W: Pasha Bere @ 50/1

Poss E/W: Marodima @ 50/1 (general)

2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

(registered as The Spa Novices' Hurdle)

Trends:

5/5 RPR of 139 or more

5/5 2m5f+ win

5/5 At least 3 run over hurdles

5/5 Was in the top 2 LTO in a Graded Hurdle

4/5 Aged 6-7

Only 5 runnings of this, so trents not too strong, but a few have 5/5

Enterprise Park (9/1), Restless Harry (17/2), Shinrock Paddy (9/1), Tell Massini (9/2fav), Wayward Prince (66/1), Premier Victory (28/1)

A good race here, I've fancied Restless Harry for this for ages but Tell Massini and Fionnegas are big dangers. Cappa Bleu won the Foxhunter's last year, but hasn't shown the same form this year. One horse I'm amazed is as big as 50/1 is Berties Dream. I think he's done nothing much wrong to deserve such a big price, you never know. Another in decent form is Silver Kate who definitely gets the trip. Quel Esprit fell on wednesday and is obviously fine after that, but I though his real chance was then and not now.

Selections:

Win: Restless Harry @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes, Bet365, VCbet)

E/W: Silver Kate @ 20/1 (general)

E/W: Berties Dream @ 50/1 (Ladbrokes, Bet365, VCbet)

3.20 Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase

Sod the trends, if you are interested, Kauto Star, Denman, Cooldine and Tricky Trickster are the best.

Kauto Star should win, I did think that Carruthers (66/1) is a big price but you're only aiming at 1 place at best, and he should be swamped by others coming round the bend. However he's 12/1 to win in the w/o big 2 market, and 33/1 w/o Kauto Star. This is a better e/w sleection

WIn: Kauto Star @ 8/11f

E/W w/o Big 2: Carruthers @ 14/1 (Sportingbet)

E/W w/o Kauto Star; Carruthers @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.00 Christie's Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup

Trends:

10/10 Won at 3m or more

9/10 RPR of 128 or more

9/10 Last run within 12-33 days

8/10 Aged 10 or less

5/5 Southwestern (33/1), Turthen (16/1) and Chestnut Annie (28/1)

4/5 Amicelli (33/1), Roulez Cool (4/1fav)

Roulez Cool (4/1fav) is probably a worth favourite, he's to short to back but should be in your placepots. I really fancy Chestnut Annie (28/1) in this, she could spring a surprise at a huge price. Robber's Glen (25/1), Turthen (16/1) and Trust Fund (8/1) are others to consider

Selections:

E/W: Chestnut Annie @ 28/1 (bet365)

E/W: Robber's Glenn @ 25/1 (Bluesq, Sportingbet)

E/W: Turthen @ 16/1 (general)

4.40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey's Handicap Hurdle

The first race was last year, so no trends. I saw Clova Island win at Kempton last month and am happy that he can carry that form into this race. Fairyland is Pricewised today and is a shame as he was backable at that price, now I'm not so sure. Not value, but still an each way price. Balthazar King has decent statsin all the right areas. How dodgepot Ashkazar is favourite is beyond me, gone backwards in the last 2 seasons.

Selections: (back them all with bet365, giving 5 places, best prices and guaranteed prices)

E/W: Clove Island @ 16/1

E/W: Fairyland @ 16/1

E/W: Balthazar King @ 20/1

5.15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup Handicap

Trends:

9/10 OR between 130-143

9/10 Maximum of 12 chase runs

9/10 Carrying less than 10-12

9/10 No older than 9

8/10 No more than 4 runs since August

Also the winner is usually less than 9/1 SP, but as we have 10/1 co-favourites at the moment, that is up in the air, might be worth looking for horses than are being backed.

5/5 You're The Top (8/1fav), Fighting Chance (12/1), Safari Journey (16/1)

4/5 Nomechecki (25/1), Pepsyrock (20/1), Tramantano (66/1), Beggar's Cap (16/1), Nikola (40/1)

Need to pick a lower weight. Hard to see Free World winning as he can't even win in small fields, unless he needs lots of horses around him. You're The Top looks a wortyh favourite. I really can't find a decent bet here, and am happy to pass over the get out stakes.

Selections:

No bet (officially)

That's it, the end of a great meeting for me, and the bookies but not for those favourite backers and Racing Post readers..... good, remember the only way to beat the bookies is to back when the odds are in your favour.

all the best

Cheltenham Day Three

2010-03-18T10:56:00.003Z

Cheltenham Day Three

Big Buck's above,he may lose. Dunguib and Master Minded were previous incumbents of the poisoned chalice. Personally I don't think he can, whereas the others were too short.

Not a great day for the blog yesterday. 1 winner. I had a good day as I was backing lots of other stuff. I try to only put the best bets up here rather than back the 3-4 horses e/w that I actually do. This isn't working. Cue Card won for me yesterday, a 4yo busted the bumper trend and it was not Irish either. I had the exacta up with Al Ferof, paid almost double the CSF @ £619.50 (compared to £334). I always find the CSF only pays better if the favourite is in the frame (esp the the winner) but the exacta pays hugely if outsiders are involved. Anyway onwards and upwards.

1.30 Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase

Trends:
Only 5 runnings here so trends are there to be broken.

5/5 OR of 123-135 (4 were 133-135)

5/5 Carrying less than 10-13

5/5 Top 2 LTO

5/5 Top 4 in all completed jump starts

5/5 Only 1 win over jumps (!!)

4/5 Won over 2m4f or further

This is a problem race, firstly the field is skewed so that only 2 horses are rated at 135 or less and both of these are carrying less than 10-13. So basically this looks pretty competative and its almost worth ignoring.

Kings Forest (20/1) (bottom weight) has all 6, but we need to delve a bit further.

Tanks For That (25/1) (2nd botom weight) has 5/6.

Nicanor and The Midnight Club has 4/6 and this is more like it. but both aren't market leaders. Copper Bleu would have 4 if you want to count his PTP win at 2m4f+. The rest are 2s and 3s. Rivaliste (7/1fav) has only 2 which is probably not good.

Of the maret principles, Hey Big Spender (10/1) could be the one to follow here. Although pretty high in the weights, he had good Cheltenham form and has won twice at this distance. A longer price could be The Midnight Club (22/1) who could fight it out for a place in this competative event. One leftfield selection that I'll probably will back is Door Boy @ 33/1 who could run a big race.

Win: Hey Big Spender @ 10/1 (general)

E/W: The Midnight Club @ 22/1 (Stan James), Door Boy @ 33/1 (Stan James)

2.05 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle

Trends:

10/10 Aged 6 to 9

9/10 Class 3 win or higher

9/10 Last raced between 20-42 days.

9/10 Carrying less than 11-03

8/10 A win at 2m4f-2m6f

8/10 Between 6-15 hurdle runs

Looking to avoid those top weights, distance wins at a good class is imperative as is hurdling experience. Not worried about the Days Since Raced as that could be more luck than judgement.

5/6 South O' The Border (40/1), Chamirey (33/1), Cross Kennon (25/1), Silk Affair (33/1), Special Occasion (100/1)

Also Alfie Sherrin (7/2fav) and Fredo (20/1) (both won at 2m7f) and Palypso De Creek (33/1) (decent win in France) can also be included. However Alfie Sherrin looks too inexperienced for this and Fredo is exposed.

As you can see from the prices, the trends analysis point to a big priced winner.

Looking for a big price here, plumping for Palypso De Creek. I'll also be hving a closer look at Don't Push It who's price it too also big for this. He had a touch of class about him when he feels like it. Chamirey is unproven on the ground and might be worth looking at for market moves.

E/W Palypso De Creek @ 33/1 (Lad, Bet365, VCbet, Spodds); Don't Push It @ 28/1 (Lad, Bet365, VCbet, Spodds) ; Chamirey @ 33/1 (Lad, VCbet, Bet365)

2.40 Ryanair Chase

(Registered as the Festival Trophy Chase)

Trends:

Another new race with only 5 years of trends. They are very very strong though and I expect the winner to be one of them.

5/5 RPR of 158+. Every horse passes this one

5/5 OR of 152+ . Again, every horse passes.

5/5 Has won at Cheltenham

5/5 Won or placed in a PaddyPower Gold Cup (in Nov) or a Boylesports Gold Cup (in Dec)

5/5 From the top 3 in the betting

5/5 4 or fewer runs since October. All pass this stat.

The only horses in the field that have placed in either of the Gold Cups are also the top 3 in the betting, Poquelin 7/2fav, Tranquil Sea (9/2) and Barbers Shop (6/1). Barbers Shop hasn't won at Cheltenham, so that leaves the other two.

Win: Poquelin @ 3/1 (general); Barber's Shop @ 6/1 (general)

As an afterthought, I'm backing Alberta's Run @ 16/1

3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle

Trends:

10/10 Top 2 LTO

10/10 No more than 4 runs since August

9/10 Aged 6-8

9/10 In the Top 2 in all hurdles this season

9/10 8-20 hurdle runs

9/10 Won a Graded hurdle

8/10 Pre-race RPR of 164+

7/7 Big Buck's 8/11fav

6/7 Tidal Bay (15/2), Karabak (9/1)

Not difficult that the top3 in the betting are strongest in the trends

E/W: Time For Rupert @ 20/1 is the value, but I'd probably watch it.

4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase

Trends:

10/10 Won a Class 3 or better

9/10 Won over 2m3f-2m5f

9/10 Raced within 41 days

9/10 Was Top 5 LTO

9/10 Raced over fences between 4-15 times

8/10 Carrying 11st or less

8/10 Aged younger than 10

8/10 Raced at a previous Cheltenham Festival

Horse with all 8 trends are

8/8 Sunnyhill Boy (10/1) and My Petra (20/1)

7/7 Song Of Songs (9/1), Made In Taipan (33/1), Martys Mission (33/1), Great Endeavour (25/1), Victorias Groom (50/1)

Song Of Songs hasn't won at the required distance which is a huge worry. Made In Taipan is carrying too much weight and Martys Misson hasn't got festival experience.

I need value in this and I'm not having any win bets. Short and sweet, but I'm going for my perennial favourite Private Be.... Hew doesn't win much but he's in the form of his life and is too big a price. Other horses of interest are Victorias Groom and From Dawn To Dusk. Purely form a trends perspective My Petra could do the business, but I have doubts.

E;:W Private Be @ 25/1 (general), Victorias Groom @ 33/1 (general), From Dawn To Dusk @ 25/1 (general)

4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup

Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)

Trends:

10/10 Rated within 8lbs of the RPR Top-rated

10/10 Aged 7-10

9/10 3m+ run LTO

9/10 A Handicap Chase win

8/10 OR less than 129

8/10 Carrying 11-00 or less

8/10 Top 3 in either of the last 2 races

8/10 3m+ win

The OR and weight stat, rules out all bar Ma Yahab (fails the wieght) and Burren Legend. So we can basically ignore that stat for this renewal.

6/8 Shillingstone (8/1), Ballabriggs (7/1fav) and Ma Yahab (25/1),

5/8 Nostringsattached (12/1), Khachaturian (16/1), Boychuk (20/1), I'moncloudnine (16/1)

You really still want a horse with a lower weight, which should count out Ballabriggs, however I'm not going to make that decision here. I really like Gallent Nuit as my idea of the winner. The ground should be ok with a bit of rain over night. Of the longer priced ones, Ma Yahab (low weight) is interesting and good value. I'moncloudnine has something about him but hasn't race in this Class before.

Win: Gallent Nuit @ 9/1 (Lad, Coral, VCbet, Bet365)

E/W Ma Yahab @ 25/1 (general); I'moncloudnine @ 20/1 (sportingbet, 16/1 bet365 5places)

Have fun :-)

Cheltenham Day Two

2010-03-17T12:12:00.000Z

Cheltenham Day Two

Well, I'm more than happy with my first day at Cheltenham, a bigwinner in the first set me up for the day and later on the week. A morning punt on A New Story @ 33/1 came good. Pricewise managed a great day and followers of the 2nd best Value Hunter are quids in. Right, after a day on the lash, I'm writing this with a clear head (thank you egg and bacon sandwich and sugary cuppa). Thankfull the first 2 days were already on the laptop. The next two aren't so a bit of graft tonight and the next 2 days will be in order.

1.30 140th Year Of The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase)

A great start to the card, and plenty of chances here. Of the favourites, none are particularly opposable, I don't think Mobaasher or Pettifour are going to last the distance but they both are good horses on good ground whereas other aren't proven on it.

The others all have their reasons to be backed. I'd rather be with Massasoit (10/1), but there must be some value floating around.

Youngstown fits the trends nicely and I do expect a big run from him. He's certainly overpriced @ 50/1 (vcbet).

Trends:
9/10 3 or more runs over fences
9/10 Finished 1st or 2nd in a 3m+ chase
9/10 Top 4 finish LTO (exception unplaced in a C1 H'cap)
9/10 Aged 6-8
8/10 1st or 2nd on any of last 2 starts
7/10 Won a chase/hurdle over 3m+

Not a great trends race, but Synchronised (non-runner), Fabalu (16/1), Massasoit (10/1), Mobaasher (10/1), Poker De Sivola (18/1) and Youngstown (50/1) are all 6/6. Those with 5/6 are Abbeybraney (9/1), Pettifour (12/1), Presenting Forever (16/1), Pennek (33/1), Cast Cada (40/1), Gentle Ranger (40/1) and Noarad De Verzee (40/1).

Selections:
Win: Massasoit @ 10/1
E/W: Youngstown @ 50/1 (vcbet)

2.05 Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (registered as The Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle)

Trends:
10/10 Aged 5 or 6
9/10 Pre-race RPR of 142+
9/10 Finished 1st or 2nd in all completed starts over hurdles
9/10 Won at least half of all hurdle runs
9/10 Had won over 2m4+
8/10 Rated within 11lbs of the RPR top-rated

Good trends race and the three that stand out are:
6/6 Quel Esprit (7/2 fav), Rite Of Passage (4/1), Peddlers Cross (6/1)
5/6 Ghizao (20/1), Summit Meeting (12/1)

Looks to be one of the market leaders, very little form on good ground to go on, I think Quel Esprit is a good think but is far too short. I don't think Rite Of Passage has done anything exceptional and will be against him today. Peddlers Cross's wins are all on softer ground and he'd be an unknown quantity on the good ground. Reve De Sivola is one I'd want to be on the side of, 11/1 is fair enough, but I think I want it each way. Finian's Rainbow is too short at 6/1, but has a chance. The e/w selection could come in the shape of The Knoxs (33/1), plenty of scope for improvement and he's 2 wins have come on Soft and Good-Firm.

Selections:
Win: Peddler's Cross @ 7/1 (VCbet, Bet365, William HIll)
E/W: The Knoxs @ 33/1, Reve De Sivola (if 12/1 or bigger)

2.40 RSA Chase

Trends:
10/10 Didn't race on the flat
10/10 1st or 2nd LTO
10/10 Last run 24-53 days ago
10/10 RPR of 141+
10/10 At least 3 runs over fences
9/10 Rated within 14lbs of the RPR Top-rated
9/10 Between 9 and 12 chase/hurdle runs

Most of the are pretty good with the trends, so it will be tough just using the trends..
5/6 Burton Port, (12/1) Diamond Harry (13/2), Little Josh (66/1), Punchestowns (5/2jfav), Weapon's Amnesty (9/1), Long Run (5/2jfav)

Should be between Long Run and Punchestowns. However I'm backing Diamond Harry as he seems to be the forgotton horse and is 13/2.

Selections:
Win: Diamond Harry @ 13/2 (generl) and if Long Run goes 3/1 I'll probably back him too.

3.20 Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase

Trends:
10/10 Won over 2m 1f 110y+
9/10 At least 8 chase runs
9/10 Rated within 10lbs of the RPR Top-rated
9/10 Course winner
9/10 No Older than 9yo
8/10 Pre-race RPR of 167+
8/10 Won Graded Chase LTO

6/7 Master Minded (10/11fav)
5/7 Big Zeb (11/1), Golden Silver (66/1), Twist Magic (15/2)

I'm going against Master Minded with Kalahari King as he's a super horse on the good ground, and this will be a tough race for MM. Twist Magic doesn't like Cheltenham and must be ignored.

Selections:
Win: Kalahari King @ 9/2 (general)

4.00 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle

Trends:
10/10 Won over hurdles between 2m2f and 2m6f
9/10 Top 6 finish LTO
9/10 Won in Class 3 or better
8/10 Carried no more than 11st
8/10 Aged 6/7
8/10 No more than 16 runs over hurdles
8/10 No run for at least 39 days
8/10 Won a race that season

8/8 Gold Award (33/1)
7/8 Hampshire Express (20/1), Sir Harry Ormesher (14/1), Lake Legend (20/1)

Gold Award is Pricewised I think, it's still 33/1 and is good value. I wanted to back Deutschland each-way, but he's been backed all week and isn't huge value but must go close. I was against Quantitativeeasing when he was beaten last time and I'm against him today.

Selections:
Win: Deutschland @ 9/1 (Bet365, betfred, vcbet, William Hill)
E/W: Gold Award @ 33/1 (Lad, WH, VC, Bet365);

4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle

Trends:
Only 5 runnings of this, and a couple of them are a bit shaky as well
5/5 OR of 124-133
5/5 Didn't win their first 2 hurdle starts (?!?!)
5/5 By a Sire who won a Group 1 on the flat
5/5 RPR of 112+ (that every horse by miles)
5/5 Won LTO, exception beaten in Grade 2 hurdle

5/5 Fin Vin De Leu (28/1), Bothy (14/1), Sanctuaire (13/2jfav), Ned Of The Hill (40/1), Hunterview (17/2)

Nasty handicap. Small Stakes Advised. No write up as I'm running late.

Selections:
E/W: Bocamix @ 50/1 (bet365 and 5 places too)
E/W: Fin Vin De LEu @ 28/1 (bet365)

5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race)

Trends:
10/10 Won a Bumper with 14 or more runners
10/10 Aged 5 or 6
9/10 Irish-bred
8/10 Pre-race RPR of 121+
8/10 Won a Bumper worth £4,000+

Just 4 with all 5 stats.
5/5 Bubbly Bruce (66/1), Dare Me (25/1), Shannon Spirit (25/1), Tavern Times (10/1).
Al Ferof (10/1) and Carpincho (66/1) are the only otheres to have the 10/10 stat regarding a win in a big field. Al Ferof isn't Irish-bred, and Carpincho looks outclassed.

Selections:
Win: Al Ferof @ 10/1 (general)
E/W: Dare Me @ 25/1 ( bet365, 4 places)

Thats it today, took a while, hoping to be a bit earlier tomorrow, well It'll have to be as I'm at work by noon.

Good Luck

Cheltenham Day One

2010-03-16T00:02:00.000Z

1.30Spinal Research Supreme Novices' Hurdle
4yo+, 2m 110y, Class 1 (Grade 1)

A match-up on paper between the superstar in the making, Dunguib and Get Me Out Of Here. If you were looking for me to unravel a 33/1 shot to take them on, then you will have to wait for another race. The only thing that could go against them is the ground. It is currently Good/Soft (Good in places), but drying out. Dunguib's only defeat was on better ground (in his only run). Get Me Out Of Here has won on his only try. If, and it's a big IF, something is going to beat them, then Menorah (12/1) is good enough can handle drying ground.

Trends:
10/10 Won on at least 50% of Hurdle starts
9/10 Pre-race RPR of at least 132
9/10 Raced within the last 45 days
9/10 Won last race
8/10 Rated within 8lbs of RPR Top Rated
7/10 Contested a Graded race

Also:
11/20 Were won by Irish-trained horses
The last winner with just 1 run was 1992

Only 2 horses have ticks in all the boxes, Dunguib (evsfav) and Get Me Out Of Here (5/1) and the market suggests it's a two-horse race too.

Selections
Win: Dunguib (evs, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Sportingbet)
Win (w/o Dunguib) Get Me Out Of Here (9/4, Stan James, Bet365, Sportingodds, Bluesq)
Each-Way: Menorah (12/1, totesport, Stan James, Sportingbet, VCbet)

2.05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
5yo+, 2m, Class 1 (Grade 1)

A good looking renewal of the Arkle, it's best sticking to the favourites in the market. The one nagging doubt I have with Captain Cee Bee, is his jumping. He fell in his penultimate start and the only reason he's favourite ahead of Sizing Europe was because “he would have beaten him”. I'm not so sure and Sizing Europe looks better value of the two. The Arkle usually goes to an up and coming youngster, but this year is different as we have plenty of older Champion Hurdle types trying their luck over the fences this season. A week ago, I was tempted to back Sports Line at a nice each-way price, but he's come in for tons of support since then and is only 8/1 and his best runs have been on softer. I really want to tip up Osana, but he hasn't done enough for me this season, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him run into a place though...... Argggh.... Sizing Europe, that's it done. No going back. But Sports Line is the weeks steamer..... oohhh

Selections:
Win: Sizing Europe (11/2, PaddyPower, Coral, SportingBet)
Win: Sports Line (if he drifts to 10/1+)

Trends:
10/10 SP not bigger than 11/1.
9/10 Aged 5-7
9/10 Finished in top 2 in all completed Chases (10/10 top 3)
9/10 Rated within 12lbs of the RPR Top-Rated
9/10 Pre-race RPR of at least 144
9/10 A Best RPR Hurdle rating of at least 143
8/10 3-5 runs over fences
8/10 Won a Novice Chase over 2m-2m1f

The Arkle is race for young Novice Chasers over 2 miles. This year we have a some very good older ex-hurdlers in here which may distort the age stat. However the horses that fit the most trends are: Captain Cee Bee (3/1fav), Sizing Europe (11/2), Riverside Theatre (8/1) all having 7/8. Those with 6/8 are Osana (16/1) and Somersby (4/1). Sports Line (8/1) won an Irish Chase (not Novice) and could also be included with (6/8).

2.40 William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase
5yo+, 3m 1f, Class 1 (Grade 3)

A definite trends race. Therefore we can ignore everything but The Package. That's true, but I've already given you none of that value that I crave. This time yesterday, Ogee was 20/1. Someone's must have been reading by notes, as he's now 11/1 and would have been my bet. One horse that is nicely weighted for this and almost fits the trends is Nenuphar Collonges and I think he's a bit of value here. Last of all, New Alco: not run for 2 years, if it wins, I did mention it.

Selections:
Win: The Package @ 13/2,
Win: Ogee @ 11/1 (William Hill, PaddyPower, Sportingbet) or e/w @ 12/1+
E/W: Nenuphar Collonges @ 22/1 (Vcbet, Ladbrokes, Stan James)

Trends:
10/10 Aged 7-10
10/10 Carried less than 10-13
10/10 OR of 127-143.
9/10 Won over 3m or more
9/10 Finished in top 3 in last 2 starts
8/10 SP between 5/1 and 8/1
8/10 No more than 11 chases
8/10 Ran no more than 4 times in the season

The Package (13/2) hits all the right notes.
Those with 7/8 are Bensalem (11/2fav), Theatrical Moment (12/1), Ogee (11/1) and Chief Dan George (33/1).

3.20 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle
4yo+, 2m 110y, Class 1

The handicaps are easy compared to these quality races. I could give you 5 and still miss the winner Khyber Kim. KK has done very little over the years and then bang, 2 big wins this season and he's still not favourite. Go Native, Solwhit, Zaynar and Medermit might have something to say about that and we haven't even mentioned the 1st/2nd/3rd from last year, it really wouldn't surprise me to see 6 jumping the last in a line...Right enough blathering, save that for the Morning Line/Racing Post. Lets find the winner. Solwhit's negatives are 1) being scoped twice in the last week. 2) Hasn't run at Cheltenham, 3) Likes soft ground. Lets get rid of all the rubbish. The main worry is the scoping as that's bound to put off any horse this close before a race. Facts are Solwhit has good form on the good ground and not having run at Cheltenham isn't a disadvantage until you know you can't run there. Khyber Kim is the one who's form on softer is exceptional and might find it all a bit quick.
{Stop waffling, Editor}

Go Native is now too short, I'm afraid. The market is all over the place, so make sure you get guaranteed prices with the bookies (most do online, and Paddys do in their shops). Bet365 are also matching the best price on every horse until sunday, as well as GP and their 4/1+ C$ offer, where they will match your stake on the next TV race if you have a 4/1+ winner). {Waffling, Ed}

I really don't want you to be put off anything in this so I'm actually going to say no bet, well no win selection. Hand on heart, I will probably have a bit on Solwhit @ 13/2+, but that may change tomorrow.

Selection:
no bet {What!! after all that, Ed}

Trends:
10/10 Ran within last 51 days
9/10 Aged 6-9
9/10 10-25 runs over hurdles
9/10 Won a Grade 1 Hurdle or Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle
9/10 Pre-race RPR of at least 156
8/10 Previous festival winner
8/10 Top Speed figure of at least 152
8/10 Rated within 7lbs of the RPR Top-rated
8/10 Won LTO

Also
Only 1 winner (Hardy Eustace) had unplaced form in his season's figures.
Only 3 winners in the last 30 years hadn't run since the turn of the year.

Go Native (9/2fav) is the only horse that hits all 9 trends.
Those with 8/9 are , Solwhit (13/2), Khyber Kim (8/1) and Celestial Halo (9/1)
7/9 are Punjabi (15/2), Medermit (9/1), and Zaynar (10/1)

4.00 Glenfarclas Handicap Cross Country Chase
5yo+, 3m 7f, Class 2

The Irish benefit race, where Enda Bolger trains the first 3 home. Probably.... Let's not beat around the bush, Garde Champetre and L'ami should be battling it out at the end with Sizing Australia 3rd. Lets try and find the each way. Monkerhostin is interesting now that he's won again this year. The 16/1 is very tempting. A horse I backed last time was Tawnies (and got the forecast up). It's 66/1 here. That was over 2m2f which was too short for him. This is probably a bit too far, but keep a lookout for him in other races.

Selections:
Win: Garde Champetre @ 9/4 (Sportingbet)
E/W: Monkerhostin @ 16/1 (Skybet, Ladbrokes)

Trends:
Only in existence for 5 years, however what can be gather from such a small sample is
5/5 Winners were trained in Ireland (4 by Enda Bolger)
5/5 Won at least 1 of their last 2 outings
5/5 Won a Cross Country race either at Cheltenham or Punchestown
5/5 Won over 3 miles or more
5/5 OR of 126-129 and no more than 10-13 or were Top-Weight

Garde Champetre (9/4fav) hits all 5 trends, not surprising as he's won the last 2 of these. Only 3 other horses have won a Cross Country Chase, L'Ami (7/2), Heads onthe Ground (33/1) and Another Jewel (20/1) (who is the only horse to hit 4/5 trends). Only 3 other horses have won in 1 of their last 2 runs as well, making this another likely win for Garde Champetre.

4.40 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle
4yo+, 2m 4f, Class 1 (Grade 2)

This should be a shootout between the two market principles. They both have possible negatives, Quevega hasn't raced since she won this last year and Voler La Vedette, pulls quite hard in her races and might not enjoy Cheltenham, she's also the Pricewise horse, so you know there's no value in her now. There's value in Quevega @ 2/1 now she's drifted and that is the win bet.
There is definitely some e/w value in the race if you don't fancy these 2. Easter Legend has been cut from 33/1 to 18/1

Selections:
Win: Quevega @ 2/1 (general
E/W: Easter Legend @ 18/1 (bet365, Paddypower, William Hill); Aura About You @ 40/1 (bet365); Amber Brook @ 40/1 (Betfred, Sportingbet, Bluesq, Stan James)

Trends:
This race is only 2 years old. Both winners were 5yo if that is any help. Last year's winner Quevega (5/4fav) is this years hotpot, but hasn't had a run since that win. Voler La Vedette (5/2) is her main market rival, while the inaugural winner, Whiteoak has been retired to stud.

Back Once Again

2010-02-06T09:35:00.002Z

Laptop is fixed.... yes that's why I 've been away, not that you knew. Just in time too as Cheltenham is just 6 weeks away.

I noticed Paul Nicholls played down Taranis's chances of winning last weekend. Cheers Paul. As I've said before, his record with his fancies is awful and the ones he thinks 'need the run' etc often come up at a big price. I'm not saying he's bent, far from it, but I believe he writes what people think he should write in his column and I'd rather not bother reading it at all.

Very good racing today. The likes Of Kalahari King, Punchestowns and Binocular(!) running. Now let's find some winners.

Doncaster
2.55
Treaty Flyer @ 12/1 (general). She's getting on now, but had a hattrick of wins in the autumn. The good-soft ground is the worst she want so no more rain is appreciated. But this looks her sort of race. Definitely worth an e/w punt at the 12/1 minimum.

4.00
Now you know me, I like big handicaps, big prices and bottom weights and I think I've found 2 here. They're both Sue Smith runners and the indication of who is favoured could be in the jockey. Garleton (20/1, bet365, vcbet, PP, SJ) usually has Tjade Collier on board but he's on Smith's other tunner Stagecoach Diamond (25/1, Coral). Garleton won 4 times in 2009 and is now targetting 3 1/2 m+ races. Finished 4th the last 2 times on soft & heavy, but now gets his preferred good/good-soft ground and 4m is in his grasp. Stagecoach Diamond looks less impressive on paper, but has placed 5 of the last 7 runs. Again the ground will be better for him today and 4m on good-soft isn't beyond him. I reckon one will place at least and either could win. The prices are too big and i'm in like Flynn.

I think that's it, but will attempt the Scoop6 if I have enough time. For A £2 bet on the rollovers its a bit of fun that could win you a fortune. Don't copy my line here otherwise you'll only win a little as everyone will copy it, however the place part is sometimes worth winning too, one lady winning £80,000 as the only winner late last year.

1 Sandown 2.05 According
2 Wetherby 2.20 Flake
3 Doncaster 2.55 Treaty Flyer
4 Sandown 3.10 Merrydown
5 Doncaster 3.25 Oiseau De Nuit
6 Sandown 3.40 Exmoor Ranger

take care,
VH

Happy New Year

2010-01-02T09:21:00.002Z

I hope you all had a good Christmas. Here's to a profitable New Year (i must say that every year, please check next years post)

Sandown looks to have an inspection at 10am. Can't wait for that. The horse I'm looking at today is in the last race.

3.40 Tullamore Dew is 20/1 (betfred, vcbet and skybet). He ran well at Fontwell last time and I'm hopeful in the soft ground, that 2m will benefit him (never raced at less than 2m2f). 20/1 is a massive price, His only 2 runs at Sandown were in Grade 1 and he wasn't disgraced last March.

Trying to find a winner

2009-12-12T09:19:00.004Z

Well that brought me down to earth, in fact it's beem the start of a terrible run.

Not a snifter in the last 2 weeks or so. I guess it started when I missed out on Mymateeric (SP12/1) at 25/1 because I was working and too busy to back it. This was way back on 30th November so you can see my problem as I've been chasing my tail ever since. Even horses I fancy and are heavily backed (Shropshire Lass 18/1 --> 11/2) don't bother with any sort of race....

Some good racing this weekend and I really do fancy some of the shorties. At least that, coupled with the poor form, means me not having tons of bets.

Cheltenham 2.25
I've nothing against any of the top of the market and won't put you off backing them. Chapoturgeon (13/2) needs a good performance as he falls far too often for my liking (whether its his fault or not), Atouchbetweenacara (15/2) is drifting like a barge this morning, probably because he was too short in the first place. Poquelin (5/1) has to have good ground according to Paul Nicholls, however that didn't stop him running on for 2nd in the Paddy Power. This is where the punters have latched on as he's hardly been punished by the handicapper for that run. I've always said lay Nicholls good things and back his 'i don't fancy' horses. As I haven't bought my RP this morning... (No I still haven't subscribed online - well you wouldn't want me to give it large and then back down would you) I don't know what he's said.

Anyway lets get down to the important stuff. Who to back? I've got it down to 2, but have only backed 1. Lets start with my real good thing. Razor Royale (11/1). This is Pricewise's selection today. I'd say grrrrrr, but the price hasn't changed at the moment. It was 11/1 with Coral last night and is still 11/1 with 2 bookies at the moment. I may have a win only bet as I hate backing at less than 12/1 (its just my e/w minimum)... Typical.. all the 11/1 has gone now BP 10/1. This horse loves the course, will get the diestance and loves the rain. The fact that it seems to be drying out isn't good, but its still soft and thats good enough for him. The horse I'm backing e/w is Hold Em (14/1, SJ, tote, Boyle, Coral, spbet). 3rd in the Paddy Power (Poquelin beat him in the run in) he should benefit from that run and with a better jumping round will go close.

Doncaster 2.45
My Petra has to prove something to me now. I'm taking her on with Arcalis (16/1, SJ, Coral, WH). Now I don't usually like backing those top weights, but Arcalis has a few things in his favour. The RP doesn't fancy it (hohoho), he'll like the ground, in fact he'll love the ground and he does act after a break. Obviously there are 2 things going against him... He' did bugger all last season and secondly, I'm tipping him.....

All in all, I'm doing shit and need a result today. But I won't give up as that's when I'll miss out.

Quick note about The Morning Line this morning..... What Johnny Francome thinks he's doing (and Tanya as well) recomending backing e/w in 7 runner races is suicidal... Good old Barry and McCrirrick for slagging them off....

If you want to back a horse in a 7 runner race each-way. You are backing it to win and backing it to finish 2nd. If you don't think it will win, go and find the winner. If you think it will finish 2nd, do an exacta/Forecast with the horse(s) you think will beat it. If you think it will win, go and back it on the nose. It really is that simple.... You are only getting 1/4 odds on it finishing 2nd.

see you next saturday.

Hennnnnessssey day.

2009-11-28T09:56:00.005Z

Have to say I'm more than happy with last weeks bets. All got placed. Just a quick rant on the Racing Post again.. A great publication.... The public just follow it blindly.... hehehe... Red Maloney, ran superbly last week for 3rd and was travelling really well. Gerald Delamere (he's been around in racing about 160 years...) wrote last saturday. "Red Maloney..... isn't an obvious candidate for a longer trip". The RP Spotlight, Richard Austen, added "...and this longer trip seems more of an obvious benefit to his rivals."

Cheers chaps for your insight.. Keeps the price nice and high so the mug punters don't back it... Keep up the good work.... The superb Rob Wright, tipped Red Maloney in his column.. (He's not superb coz he agrees with me btw). He tips up some big priced winners as well. Also Templegate in the Sun has changed from Phil Logan to Steve Jones, so bear that in mind if you follow the Sun. I may keep an eye on him.. Logan seemed to go off the boil recently after winning the RP Tipster 3-4 years ago. He went through the card a couple of times a while back, even I couldn't do that.

While I'm so busy, there will be limited time for posts. When I'm not working, I'm working on my new house and time is short. Saturdays are the best days for betting and I'll try to put up bets when the mighty Bees are at home (otherwise at work). You can follow the blog so you should get an update when there's a new post.

Today is Hennessey day at Newbury. There are 3 I fancy against the field. Nothing shocking but What A Friend (8/1) and Barbers Shop (6/1) have all the trends in their favour and both should go close. At an e/w price, State Of Play (14/1) looks a bit of value. The former winner is a classy horse.

In the 2.05, Akilak looked value at the 16/1 available last night, but is now 12/1 and getting shorter on the time, 12/1 is on the edge of value but should start 8 or 9/1.

1.00 Kawagino was forecast at 33/1 at sportinglife.com.. Shame he isn't that today. 14/1 is best price. About right, but I've still backed him, but i'd really tip him if he was the 33s.

So not too much today especially as they've all been backed into 'normal' prices, so don't do your bollocks...

ttfn
VH

2009-11-21T08:48:00.002Z

So sorry for the gap... Lots of stuff on..... Gonna be the same I'm afraid even though we've tons of great racing on.

I'm gonna put up a couple today at big prices.

Haydock
2.20
I can't really belive that Lysander is 16/1 (general). I have to say that Burton Port (4/1f) and Diamond Harry (5/1) are cracking horses. Harry lost his unbeaten record at Cheltenham afyer racking up 6 in a row. There will be more to come. Burton won a good race last week at Bangor and is the early morning steamer (from 11/2). Lysander won last month at Aintree and this is his trip. One negative is his performance in large fields. Ideally he wants about 8-10 runners to see him at his best, but has won in a bigger field too.

Ascot
2.35
This looks on paper to be all about Zaynar (7/4f) and Karabak (3/1). I like Zaynar but it's asking a lot for a 4yo to give weight to older rivals. Karabak is much more interesting, and I'd rather be on his side. Katchit (11/2) looks past his best. Lough Derg (16/1) must be past it as well now. Time For Rupert (20/1) look like he want's further but is worth watching in the market. The horse I like will easily sneak under the radar and I can't imagine will start any shorter than 20/1... is Red Maloney (25/1, Ladbrokes, Boylesports). Now on the bare facts this looks a frivolous call, but he has a couple of things going for him. Hes crying out for a step up from 2m and he wants to go right-handed. And he's had a run this season. I'm on and am hoping for some place money.

Kempton
6.00
Yummy, dodgy twiglet racing at Kempton... My favourite. Gonna tip up Capone (12/1). Much better than his grade 5 wins, not good enough for grade 3 LTO, grade 4 might be perfect. Plonked on the AW might not be to his liking, but this distance is. Small stakes recommended as this usually guarantees a win after the blowouts above.

Hello Again... Hello

2009-10-02T10:13:00.002+01:00

Hasn't been much around to be honest and it's been a busy time for me when there is with work and all.

Bet today I hope I've struck gold, Nevada gold....

8.20 Wolverhampton
Nevada Desert (20/1, Ladbrokes, William Hill).... This horse has been doing crap in higher grades and now is running in C5 and dropping down the handicap (hmmm). Has a real chance here (well 20/1 is massive, I'm thinking 6/1 or 7/1) Get on while you can.

Nick Pullen

2009-09-16T15:06:00.006+01:00

Months ago, I signed up to Nick Pullen's newletters, 3-4 times a week, he'll look for an edge and recommends strategies to follow.

On the 11th of August, he recommended 2 horsees to follow having spotted them run well from bad draws in the Stewards Cup. They were Brave Prospector and Striking Spirit.

With Brave Prospector, Nick told us to look for him coming back off a run within about 3 weeks over 6f in handicaps, running on good or soft ground and in a decent sized field. At York, Brave Prospector was 16th/17 over 5f. His next run was 24 days later at Doncaster @ 6 1/2f (on GF) and he hacked up at 16/1.

Of course I completely forgot about this until Nick reminded me and so I wasn't on.

Striking Spirit is trained by handicap sprint king Dandy Nicholls and will prefer firmer ground. He's run twice since and hasn't got any place money.. YET.

Both these horses are running in the Ayr Gold cup on saturday and could possibly win at big prices. I will keep an eye on things.

Nicks also given some stats on laying Tony McCoy mounts (at less than 4/1) to guarantee a profit regardless and earmarked following Nigel Twiston-Davies in September/October at Perth, Market Rasen and Warwick.

Since 2003 he has the following stats:

Course	R	W	SR%	£1
Perth	125	41	32.8	44.05
Warwick	103	24	23.3	46.85
M Rasen	67	21	31.3	52.98

Nick's newletters can be signed up here at:
http://www.horseracingfocus.co.uk/

Happy Punting

wednesday value

2009-09-16T09:51:00.002+01:00

3.55 Yarmouth
Angel Rock (18/1, bluesq) At his best trip of a mile and back down in grade, he should go close. Has won on Good-Firm, but wouldn't be unhindered by some rain.

but that's not the point

2009-09-04T09:55:00.003+01:00

Northern Spy was punted into 13/2ish and finished a never nearer 5th/6th. Got it right but the horse didn't know.

Wotchalike was not good shall I say... Steer clear of those short-priced types :-)

2 for today. I backed Gasparilla @ 40/1 the other day and she did me proud, finishing 5th by a short thing in a Nursery. Yes, she didn't get me any cash but that's not the point. She's going to win one, one day and she's turned out quickly on the AW at Kempton tonight. The 6.20 to be exact, well she's got to get her beauty sleep.... 25/1 with my favourite bookies, Bet365 and Stan James.

The 2nd bet is Jabal Tariq (12/1 general) in the 8.50. Admittedly this is asking more than he's offered before and Barry doesn't have one of his sons on board, but this doesn't look particularly strong. I'm definitely going to be unhappy if he's not in the top 4...... (yes I know it only pays top 3... but THAT'S NOT THE POINT...)

yowzers

2009-08-31T10:40:00.002+01:00

Bingo... we had a winner in Diaweitza on saturday. King's Colour won from the 'wrong side' as well but we didn't back it. The 3rd selection was a non-runner. Hope you had a win trixie on that.... lol

Today there's lots of racing and I'm only going to root out the cream of the crop today (as always)

Epsom Downs
2.35 Northern Spy (16/1, Stan James) seems to like it around Epsom. He won here in July and am happy to recommend him again on good-firm today. He's drawn well and I expect a good run.

Cartmel
5.15 Wotchalike (7/2) looks a good bet in the last at Cartmel. His only challenger in my book is a non-runner, so 7/2 looks a good price.

have a successful Bank Holiday monday.
VH

Saturdays quickie

2009-08-29T10:24:00.004+01:00

Mr Plod wasn't backed. Seb did ok with him, but wilted towards the end. May have a race in him later on.

Some nice bets today, but will stick with the 2 I fancy most.

Redcar 520
Daaweitza (16/1, vcbet, bet365) steps up in trip but down in class today. He has been running over 6f, which isn't his trip and now runs at 1m2f today. His best distance is around 1m, but may want this step up.

Windsor 5.10
Hannicean 20/1 (boylesports). I was going to back this at 14/1. Now 20/1 with Boylesports, which is ridiculous. I'll leave off backing yet so you get the price. Very similar to Daaweitza at Redcar, in that he's stepping up in trip today looking for an edge. Steadily getting better today and his price is too large here.

Goodwood 4.55
I also want to back King's Colour @ 14/1. However he's not well drawn but it is worth watching his performance on the other side. If he's doing well there he'll be worth backing over 7f next time.

Football treble:
Dagenham 10/11 - Notts County evs - Charlton 5/4

Enjoy.

Quick one

2009-08-24T10:38:00.002+01:00

This is an emergency post

Kempton 4.10

Horse called Mr Plod. 66/1 (Paddypower, 50/1 general). This is a 50/1 shot after all, but its very overpriced and hopefully it can run into a place. New trainer today and has first-time cheek-pieces. Worth a dabble methinks. Obviously its not a mortgage jobbie, but I expect it to start a bit shorter than this.

RP rant part 1172

2009-08-18T16:13:00.002+01:00

Still no PC sorted. Shame as I'd have had some good results....

This is from the Racing Post Spotlight on saturday.

"Long-standing maiden on the Flat and six hurdles outings do not suggest things will be much different over jumps; coming down the weights and drops significantly in trip, but easily opposed."

Semi-Detatched was freely available at 40/1 from Stan James in the morning.... and won at 11/1.

Don't EVER let the Racing Post put you off.... In fact you'll get a better price because of it.

Goodwood on thursday

2009-07-30T09:47:00.003+01:00

not bad using the draw stats on tuesday. I made an error in one. Manyriverstocross won from a 'bad draw' but it was 1m4f and didn't matter. Whoopsie...

Goodwood
2.10 High draw is best. Stall 10 and upwards I think. The top 4 in the betting are all on this side. Mirrored (4/1f), Roman Republic (6/1), Hyades (8/1) and Set The Trend (12/1, Stan James).

2.45
Borderlescott (7/2f) is drawn well and should challenge. Ialysos (7/1) the Greek freak is also on that side. Can't have Kingsgate Native. My e/w money is going on the Hills/Hills pairing on Equiano (20/1, spbet, PP, Sky, Bluesq).

3.25
Fav Schiaparelli looks not great value here and i'm looking to take it on. Caracciola could be the one at 8/1, however Friston Forest offers the most value at 14/1 with Betfred.

4.00
Nothing stands out in this.

4.35
High draw is best in this... means you should oppose Shamwari Lodge and Infiraad.

5.10
High draw again. 2yo race. 2 favs look ok, but I wouldn't touch them with the proverbial stolen money.

5.45
Big sprint. Not too high a draw here. High but not right out on the rail. Go to the pub.....

Epsom
5.55
Calculating (16/1, general) is a little too big in this. Has form up to 2m and also at 1m6. This should still be ok for him. Hasn't won on the turf is a worry though.

Glorious

2009-07-28T09:39:00.003+01:00

Goodwood is here... fantastic.... 5 days to do your dough. Seriously. Royal Ascot was about 2 weeks long... I was punting everyday. I lost. I don't make the same mistake at GG.

There are some pointers in the draw at Goodwood, especially over the shorter distances. Basically you need to be drawn high. Low drawn horses have awful records. I will put a few horses down on here but I don't think I'll be betting today.

Munsef won @ 8/1 (from 12s). Very nice race and never gave up. Charlie Cool was 6th, but it was too hot for him, look out if he runs in a lower grade.

Goodwood
2.10
Favoured horses drawn well: Alfathaa (7/1) and William Blake (9/1).
Favoured horses drawn badly: Royal Destination (5/1f) and Sweet Lighning (7/1).

2.45
No draw bias, but Harbinger (9/4f) looks very opposable.

3.25
Main Aim (6/4f) drawn in 1 and JJ The Jet Plane (7/2) drawn in 2. Not good, but they are better than most of the rest and its an 8 runner race.

4.00 Monsieur Chevalier(4/5f) is drawn well (in 10) and is a class apart. Archers Road (20/1) is also drawn well and in any other race would be a lot shorter. He can't beat the favourite, but can get a place.

4.35
Favoured horses drawn well: Cool Strike (11/2f) and Yes Mr President (7/1).
Favoured horses drawn badly: Manyriverstocross (15/2) and Waldvogel (8/1).
Drill Seargent (14/1) is drawn well and could also run a good race.

5.10
Favoured horses drawn well: Wellington Place (15/2f), Mister Dee Bee (8/1 and The Witch Doctor (8/1).
Favoured horses drawn badly: Mujood (8/1)
Ellemujie (16/1) and Marajaa (14/1) are also drawn well.

5.45
2yo race. The way is to lay the favourite here. Though Lowdown isn't the worst favourite i've seen in a 2yo race.

Rushed today. next update (possible evening bets tomorrow) thursday

Charlie Cool.... tidy

2009-07-26T11:53:00.004+01:00

Friday was ok....

Scotch Corner was punted into 6/1 and finished 2nd by a short head, looked beat with 1/2 furlong to go and got back up well. Would have won with another 20yds.

Falcon's Tribute never looked like winning but someone pressed the wrong button on Betfair and hoovered up all my lays so a small profit was gleaned.

Gosforth Park - NR

Dirar wonnd beat Lord Baskerville into 2nd place, so a small profit made in this.

Good Gorsoon was 4th, typically.

Today looks a good day. I've whittled it down to 2 bets. There is a lot of value around, but I don't want to waffle on for hours.

Ascot 4.35 Munsef (12/1, betfred) is a consistant type and its not the greatest price going for a 15 runner handicap. 2008 was pretty disappointing but has bounced back well this year with a good 2nd at Haydock LTO. Definitely don't take less than the 12/1.

Pontefract 3.50 Another good race where 'anything' can win. Perks (7/2) and Orizaba (2/1f)
look strong for this, but Bet365 have offered Charlie Cool @ 25/1. Unbelievable price. Should come on for his run in June (1st race for 20 months) and hopefully back to his 2007 form, where he won a Class 2 and was placed twice in Class 1s.

Racing Post Update: Corner shop ran out today, do I, don't I.... arggggh.... 25p a day..... hmmmmmm.

Friday Fun

2009-07-24T10:52:00.003+01:00

Iris's Flyer didn't do the business... drifted to 20/1 in fact. Not happy about that. More signs that the Racing Post is the devil incarnate. No winners since it introduced it's members club. I will not kowtow down to these cyberbullies. I don't want pricewise and I certainly don't want the other twats opinions on horses, I don't want spotlight (although I readi t for fits and giggles), the post-data is useful-ish. I do like using their lifetime form and reading through the results and getting a feel for the nag I'm going to back. I am weakening though... I almost gave in today, but have to be strong..... give me a 50p for the day option and i'll succumb.

Today is another of those millionaire or bust days..... not enough time for a complete breakdown of the recommended bets. As Gordon Gecko meant to say.... Breakeven is good.

Southwell 2.15 Scotch Corner @ 20/1 (PP, Hills, Skybet, totesport) Done nothing so far but this is weaker looking than some of his races. 20/1 looks big and might be worth looking him up.

Southwell 3.25 Falcon's Tribute @ 20/1 (sportingbet, Hills) Can't get on at either so I can't bet here, however there's no reason why Falcon's Tribute is 20/1.

Thirsk 3.40 Gosforth Park @ 40/1 (vcbet, SJ, Ladbrokes) Overpriced, if he gets a place I'll be more than happy.

Southwell 5.10 Newgate @ 20/1 (Totesport, SJ, sportingbet) and Lord Baskerville @ 20/1 (Coral, Bet365, PP) are viable e/w alternatives to Dirar (won last night). One should place, trouble is which one??? Split stakes here.

Newmarket 7.40 Good Gorsoon @ 14/1 (Coral) One of my stronger e/w bets. Racing above his station recenty, down in Class 3 he's got a good chance at a nice price.

And now it's pissing down outside, oh well, bets are already on.

2009-07-21T16:21:00.002+01:00

I thought Ray Of Joy ran decently last night, led til the final furlong and in a bunch finish managed 6th. Happy with the run, not much money for it though.

Had backed Hallingdal previously, and he's failed to deliver again. Was kept out the back and looked to be running on late, so the 1m2f was ok. I'll weight up whether he's worth putting up here again.

Bangor-On-Dee
9.00 Tonight Iris's Flyer looks a big old price. 14/1 around with the usual guaranteed odds firms (SJ and bet365). Won at Southwell in April and fell on his last run.

2 late ones

2009-07-20T14:11:00.002+01:00

Just back from a relaxing break from it all..... A very profitable punting weekend.... yup I didn't have a bet..... With all that rain around and horses coming out of races every which way, any value bets were undone by rule 4 and the like. We can start the new week refreshed coz last week was pants, big style. The cricket has been pretty good though and England have beaten the Aussies at Lord's for the first time since 1934. (No Ashes editorial this week has failed to mention this.... boring farts). Anyways back to the old 'orses.

I've just had a quick browse of tonights cards and 2 horses stand out:

Windsor
7.50 Ray Of Joy (22/1, vcbet) is overpriced (of course). Has been running well on the AW and needs to improve on his turf form, but is in decent form. His record on the sand is W2, Pl4 Unpl 1 from 7 runs. Just a 3rd from his 5 turf runs.

8.50 Hallingdal (20/1 bet365) seems to save his best for Windsor and is worth siding with here. Should be suited by 1m2f. This is probably the better bet of the two. Bet365 are out of line here.

Good luck..

Still Alive

2009-07-16T09:38:00.005+01:00

Managed a small profit with Midnight Gold winning, no others got placed.

The first race of the day offers us some each way thievery.

Cartmel
2.00 Lake Wakatipu (11/8f) should have won last time and should be on a hat-trick today, however he managed to throw his jockey off when all set. He's a worthy favourite. However there is a little value in picking out Elusive Swallow (25/1) to get a place. His 2 races so far have been over fences and he's not set the world alight with 2 4ths. 3m looked too far over the jumps and 21/2$ m on the short side. 2m6f over hurdles could light his fire and he could be a steal here.

Epsom
8.20 Stanley Goodspeed (10/1, betfred) is another that is overpriced. 10/1 isn't an ew shot (in my book) so it may have to be on the nose. Getting some sort of form back recently with decent runs in May.

Doncaster
8.40 Tough handicap, but Huirlingham (16/1, Ladbrokes, Skybet) looks overpriced. This race should suit him and so should the ground which he hasn't had since a 4th at Nottingham.

Cricket
The 2nd Test starts today. It's still 0-0 thanks to the bowlers. England will need to bat a lot better on a good batting pitch and bowl 100 times better here. I expect Flintoff (injured) and Panesar (pants) to drop out. That means they may play 6 batsmen (I hope not) or Onions, swing king and headline-writers dream (there's definitely 2 more Tests in them anyway) . Harmison is a shoo-in judging by the pie-chuckers of the 1st test. I'm hoping that Swann and Broad batting at 7 and 8 will be good enough....... ANYWAYS....... BARMY ARMY... BARMY ARMY *hic*

WSOP Main Event
I have a small problem. The 'November 9' are now set after 8 days of hard graft. It looks a great final table with the UK's James Akenhead, who got really unlucky to lose to Grant Hinkle http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fRaTnpd9mE and Jeff Shulman. The problem I have is a small 'fun' wager I had with a fellow contributor. He asked for 500/1 on Phil Ivey to win the Main Event. Piece of piss (66/1 was best price on t'internet) there are 6500 players after all.

Phil Ivey is one of the 'November 9'. FECK FECK FECK ........ Don't worry it's only for £2..... so I will be working doubly hard to make myself a grand in the hand here, just in case.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You work hard for 8 days, you get up to £20m in chips, one of the big stacks of the tournament and the cooler hits you full in the face...... harsh

Billy Kopp Eliminated in 12th Place ($896,730)

Wow. That's a succinct description of what just happened on the secondary feature table. Billy Kopp opened for 600,000 preflop from early position and was called by the small blind, Darvin Moon. So far, so good. On a flop of , Moon had first action and checked. He then called when Kopp bet 750,000. Again, nothing out of the ordinary yet. It was on the turn where everything went haywire. Moon checked again and drew a bet of 2.0 million from Kopp. Moon then check-raised to 6.0 million. Improbably, Kopp moved all in for about 20.0 million total. Even more improbably, Moon called! Kopp: Moon: Kopp looked like he wanted to cry when he saw Moon's hand. He knew that he was drawing dead and that Moon had him covered. Kopp had more than 80 big blinds to start the hand; with the river he had none. He didn't even wait for the river to come out, barreling out of the secondary feature table area as fast as he could. Moon is once again the chip leader with a whopping 45.0 million chips.

Hmmmm

2009-07-15T11:37:00.003+01:00

Not particularly happy with yesterday...... I gave 3 tips, only 1 placed (Kalasam). Monte Pattino ran his race, went for it 4f out and faded. Highly Acclaimed was in the top 4 but never was going to get a place.

The problem was I could have given 4 more tips and 3 of them won (the other was beaten by a head) .... No I didn't back them either. 7 bets on a tuesday is a bit much.

No I'm on betting tilt....... I wasn't going to put up any selections today, but have had a strop and backed 7... No reasons, no rivals no nothing, just 7 picks that won't win......

TILT BET 1 Uttoxeter 3.10 Psychiatrist @ 14/1 (Boylesports, Sportingbet, VCbet, Stan James)

TILT BET 2 Uttoxeter 4.10 Midnight Gold @ 14/1 (Coral, William Hill)

TILT BET 3 Uttoxeter 4.40 Photogenique @ 12/1 (Bet365, Boylesports, vcbet, PaddyPower, Ladbrokes)

TILT BET 4 Worcester 6.40 Alfie's Isle @ 12/1 (Totesport, vcbet, Coral)

TILT BET 5 Kempton 6.50 Shark Man @ 14/1 (Stan James)

TILT BET 6 Kempton 7.50 Ocean Legend @ 12/1 (spbet, vcbet, Coral, Stan James, Skybet)

TILT BET 7 Kempton 9.20 Sew'n'So Character @ 16/1 (vcbet)

Fingers crossed I get my money back.......

Tuesday update

2009-07-14T11:31:00.003+01:00

Beverley 5.45
I've decide to add Kalasam (12/1, betfred, sportingbet, Coral) to the mix. 15 runner handicap, and top weight, however he's been running well over a mile and drops down to C6 today. Has drifted on course in his last 3 runs and I think he has an excellent chance here. Downside is the weight he's giving to all, but he's better than these IMHO. Bookies may have been too generous here.

Must do better

2009-07-14T09:31:00.002+01:00

Sunday was one of those days where I was trying to find a winner, in stead of one jumping out at me. The only selection I was happy with was That Man Fox who's type has won these races before. One of the 3 favs came out leaving 7 runners and our horse was backed (after the rule4) but ultimately blew up.

I couldn't place Thunder Rock at a distance I was confident he'd do well at, however the market backed him into 13/2 and I just had a feeling that he was in for a reason. He was out the back which I wasn't too happy about and was just about to push on in the back straight before a slow jump dropped him back. An average one at the next and he was done for the day.

Falcon's Tribute was nibbled to 17/2 but was eased when he wasn't going to place. He'll find a better race to win than this.

Today. Bit more confident about Monte Pattino (16/1 huge!!, Stan James), he runs at Beverley's 4.15. I liked his win LTO at Musselburgh and he's now stepped up 2 grades, but they've found his trip and this doesn't look the best of C4s. The favourite still hasn't won nor run in this Class and yet is 11/4f. I like Pseudonym (5/1), but Yonder's (4/1) 2 wins were at shorter and he's unproven at 2m+.

Southwell
8.40 Highly Acclaimed (12/1, general, so bet365, Boylesports, Stan James). Run here in June seemed to perk her up from distinctly average. Steps up to 1m for the first time today which should suit, and up in Grade too. The two favourites will be up there too, but the rest are borderline crap. Interesting.

If you can get that 16/1 on Monte Pattino I reckon he'll start half that. Fingers crossed for today.

2009-07-12T10:45:00.002+01:00

Not a bad little card today at Stratford.

3.30 Thunder Rock (12/1, tote, sportingbet, coral) can't seem to find his trip or indeed his discipline. Has run well back over fences the last two times after some disappointing hurdling performances. Today he back down to 2m1f after trying trips from 2m3f to 3m3f. He'll need to be a bit closer to the action today but he's a big old price in this and I'd rather be with him than against him.

5.10 That Man Fox (22/1, sportingbet, skybet) is well overpriced in this. 8 runners so watch out for another non-runner but the bookies have missed this one off the radar. He hasn't run for a year but if he's going to land the cash this is probably the race to do it in.

Southwell
3.55 Falcon's Tribute (12/1, bet365, betfred, sportingbet) is overpriced at 12/1 in this but it is a little competative. I wasn't going to put it up but I won't be happy if she wins and I haven't put it up here. She needs to build on her penultimate start after disappointing LTO. Tentative selection.

No Ashes rant today, the scorecard says it all......

A Bet Free Day and Ashes Rants

2009-07-11T08:47:00.003+01:00

Thursday's race didn't turn out as I'd hoped. Little bits of everything and lots of nothing. Arcano won (pah). Red Jazz was 3rd but not at the e/w price and Reignier was 4th... (at an e/w price). Tawaabb was the horse that was punted (12s --> 8s) but that doesn't matter as it finished 7th.

Racing Post Update:
I don't miss you at all

Today's racing is excellent, which is a shame because I can't find a tasty big priced winner for you. If in doubt leave it out and all that, let's keep our winnings for another day. And you may as well leave the Scoop 6 alone too as it won't be won this week.

The Ashes:
Can't say I'm impressed with England at all.

First of all they pick Panesar when he can't bat, field or now bowl. With Flintoff not 100% it was gonna be a risk to have only 3 seamers.

Their next faux pas was that ridiculous nightwatchman crap. Just who is he protecting?!?!?!? So Prior now has to hit boundaries coz he is protecting Anderson, when it should be the other way round and of course Prior gets out. Stupid Strauss. 400 is the MINIMUM on that pitch, 550 looks the par score and England are behind the 8 ball again. The should escape this time thanks to it being played in the wettest city in the universe however they didn't bother trying to save the Lord's Test in 2005. Do you remember play on sunday not starting til about 4pm and with dark clouds everywhere and rain set for tomorrow. England managed to lose 5 wickets in about 35 mins with some of the worst batting ever witnessed outside Frimley Green under-9's (when 3 players had Chicken-Pox), Giles and Jones being particularly dumb.

Oh where was I, that was it, moaning about English Cricket (I've just remembered another rant about the 2006-07 series - What do you mean it was never played, so we only need to draw this series to retain the Ashes then.... Sky being one of the worst culprits, and they made me stay up all night for Adelaide for that 'performance' :-) ), but anyway......

Thirdly, yes the ball was doing a bit on thursday but why oh why do England's batsman think that this is a Twenty/20 match..... This is Test cricket , the pinnacle of your life mate, stop sweeping balls that can't be swept KP and play every ball on its merits.... Hauritz is spinning the ball more on day 1 than our two will be on days 2, 3, & 4 and he's shit.

So the pitch looks benign, you wait til England bat.. The snakes in the pitch will all come out as per usual when England are in. The Aussie attack looks particularly average (but better than ours). Shame we can't concentrate for more than a session.

Rant of the Week: Shane Warne is playing in the World Series of Poker Main Event. He's dumped off 200k in chips in about an hour so he'll be back in the studio very soon. Perhaps he'll remember his history a bit better. His quote that Cardiff doesn't deserve the 1st Test *whinge*, it's traditional that it should go to Lord's *whine*. England are running scared *blah*.

Piss of Warnie... Get your facts right. Yes England haven't beaten you lot since 1934 at headquarters, yet this is the complete list of 5/6 Test Ashes series that the 1st Test has been played at Lord's:

1977
2005

THAT'S IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!..... 1 series before 2005.....

If you want I'll reel off the rest....

Nottingham 1899, 1905, 1921, 1926, 1930, 1934, 1938, 1948, 1953, 1956, 1964, 1981
Birmingham 1902, 1909, 1961, 1975, 1997, 2001
Manchester 1968, 1972, 1993
Leeds 1985, 1989.

There you go you baldie freak of nature..... *Love you really*... Just don't mess with history, especially my history....

The West Indies are on strike... Tino 'Windows' Best is leading their attack vs Banglandesh. Ho ho ho. Looks like Stanford really stuffed them over if they aren't paying their players. You wouldn't really know considering how lazy-arsed they were in the Test series vs England. By the looks of it maybe a couple of them won't get back in....

That's it for now.... ;-) *phew*

Just the one

2009-07-09T09:23:00.003+01:00

Newmarket
2.00 Barry Hills runs Red Jazz (8/1) here (Michael is on board). On the face of it, 7th at Royal Ascot behind the extremely impressive Canfield Cliffs isn't too much to shout about, but that was a good race. I'm not sure I could say the same about this one. 8/1 looks good value. 2 horses at larger prices that should run well are Tawaabb (12/1) and Reignier (16/1, bluesq). These filled the places in the 5f Group 2 race at Royal Ascot. Tawaabb was fancied, Reignier wasn't. Both step up to 6f today and are worth following. We don't know much about Arcano's win on debut, but he's got to be worth opposing in this contest.

And that's it. One race with a little value today. Don't want to sway you one way or the other on how to approach it, so I won't...

Good luck

Thank You Racing Post

2009-07-08T09:11:00.002+01:00

Today, the Racing Post online goes members only for £9.99 a month. Not bad value to be honest at 33p a day, however it will now save me a lot of money as I won't have to read their drivel about why my selections can't win and so I can't be put off backing them.

Right, it's the first day of Newmarket's July meeting. No need to go mad, it's not Royal Ascot or anything, we lose enough money at these things anyway, however my selection in the first is also thre RP's spotlight selection here.

Newmarket
1.30 Would have been First City but the price has gone in from 14/1. Shame thought it would be a good day today.

In fact ther eis very little around, maybe with all the rain it's a good thing to lay it off for a day or two. 3 days without a bet, most unusual. Still we have a much bigger fish to fry, bring on the Aussies. All I ask for is that the 1st Test is better than the last one in 2005, which was a day of highs and lows. I'm just about to take the phone off the hook and settle down at 10am for 7 weeks of pleasure.

woot 2

2009-07-06T10:05:00.002+01:00

Chorizo won @ 13/2. There was a rule 4 of 20p on the 12/1 we got, but very happy with that. That other stupid 7/2 shot, Lucky Buddha, didn't.. But another day in the black is good. If you backed any of the other horses mentioned yesterday, well Cobo Bay was 2nd @ 11/2 (from 12/1) and Intersky Music won (Bob Mountain another NR)...

Racing is truly shite today, so not bets til tomorrow. However Resurge runs again at Windsor tonight. 15/8f is too short although he has another decent chance. We got him at his price and he won't be that for a while.

not worth bothering about - grrrr

2009-07-05T09:47:00.005+01:00

This was going to be a decent day with all of them winning of course, but withing the time it takes to witter on for ages, its all gone a bit Pete. Ho hum, I'll leave it up for you.

Ayr
2.10 A 3yo handicap with no previous winners in the field. The horse with IMHO, the best performance so far is Lucky Buddha (7/2 from 4/1), who's 3rd at Newcastle in C5 was pretty decent. Not a great run last time, but has the opportunity to score today in a weaker looking race. The 7/2 on offer is on the lower limits of my betting, but it still offers a bit of value.

4.40 Was going to be Cobo Bay, but while 16/1 was good value with skybet, that price has now change to 12/1 so I am having a hissy fit, no bet

Market Rasen
3.20 This looks a pretty decent race with lots of horses in 'form'. This gives a great opportunity of Michael's Dream (12/1) to sneak in under the rader. In decent nick himself, he's offered at a huge price here. Hi Dancer (4/1jf) is runnig over hurdles for the first time in ages, can't quite understand why they would bother tbh. Intersky Music (4/1jf) and Bob Mountain (6/1) look likely threats to our pick, but I really can't see him out of the frame here. Michael's Dream is now a NR..... sigh.......

3.50 A good race here. Tempsford (3/1f) looks a solid favourite. There are a couple of ew picks that are backable. Leopold (16/1) offers us a nice price on a very consistent horse and I think will go well, the excellent claimer Ryan Mania is on board. Not sure whether to split stakes with Chorizo (12/1). Price is ok and could upset the applecart. Scratch that. Leopold now a NR... Chorizo will have to be the selection...

What a waste of time that was.

Woot

2009-07-03T12:59:00.002+01:00

Great 7 length win for Resurge on monday....... our only bet of the day....

3 days of downtime on the t'internet has resulted in a lack of activity at this end. There may have been some bets today but its a little late to do it so the next update will be on sunday morning.

I don't Like Mondays

2009-06-29T09:58:00.002+01:00

Very happy with yesterday.... 2 winners from 3 selections. Piste won @ 4/1, I hope you used one of the guaranteed odds bookies (bet365, Hills, Boylesports, Paddys or Stan James). Midnight Cruiser won @ 6/1 (from 9/1). Leleyf was beaten by an unexposed type :-p

There is very little today. One selection at Windsor tonight (I can't get winners at Windsor) is in the 8.10. I can ignore Roly Poly (16/1) and Blowhole (40/1). Rio Guru (16/1) has gone backwards from a promising start last year. Quince (16/1) has had to drop down in Class to get any prize money and is back up to C4.

The favourite, Racing Hero (10/11f), has obvious chances on his handicap debut, but is not my choice here. Pelham Crescent (11/1, coral) is a decent horse but still hasn't won away from the AW or Bath (hat-trick there in April/May). Poor at Sandwon LTO.

Buddy Holly (10/1, Hills) is a horse I fancied and landed the money at Kempton 12 days ago. Not a good run 3 days ago and the ground looks too fast for him.

Trans Siberian (10/1) seems to like Windsor (1 win & 2 places from 5 runs) and is worth considering but Resurge (12/1) who tackles 1m2f for the first time (been staying on well after some shoddy starts) after finding C2/C3 races a little too hot this . The good to firm ground will suit him and if he can get off to a decent start has a good chance of getting in the money.

So Resurge is my pick. Don't take less than 12/1.

Update: vcbet has just gone 14/1.

Sunday is a day of rest....

2009-06-28T10:21:00.000+01:00

Yesterday.
Trumpet Lily, punted in a little to 9/2, but didn't challenge.
King Of The Moors was 3rd :)
Binfield was a NR and a few more left Hallindal as one of 6 horses and unplaced.
Ours was average.
Whirlijig was 2nd
Lilly Blue and the other thing Montoya wotsit did bugger all.

Not quite the consistency I'd hoped for and a slight loss on the day.

Sunday looks pretty quiet. Can't see any each way selections at the moment, there may be a few win bets. When I say 'win bets' I actually mean bored bets. It's probably a day to swerve, but as I'm doing bugger all at the moment, I'll stick some bets up :-D

Windsor
2.55 Piste (7/2) has a good draw and is getting there. Looks a fairly weak renewal. Dancing Wave could be his biggest danger.

3.25 The Hills partnership runs Legislate (9/4jf) in this, but is too short for a value hunter. I liked the look of Midnight Cruiser's run at Sandown in April and he is upped in trip here, however the 9/1 offered by Stan James looks a tad on the large side. He is the value here.

4.00 Thanks RP, blurt out the usual claptrap... .'exposed' and 'vulnerable', the usual bollocks trotted out about a horse that's run a few times. For example Leleyf (8/1) is it's prime target for this boring vitriol with 5 runs. They love picking on horses like this and always plump for something (for example Existentialist) that has run crap but might improve....... The numbers don't add up.. It was crap last time... FACT.... last.... FACT..... led for a bit, then finished last, so fuck the draw...... Oh I feel much better now....

Leleyf won on it's first 2 starts, has significantly been upped in class since and has it's good-firm ground today. It's only run 5 times, yet is now cast aside like a used rubber and thrown in the bin, not that I'm advocating using condoms more than once.... yeuch. Anyways, Leleyf has the form in the book and at 8/1 is a good price in this. (Of course there might be something less exposed in the line up...zzzzzzzzzz)

I'm going for a lie down after that..... Fucking Racing Post.......

another frustrating day

2009-06-27T09:30:00.000+01:00

First of all the good stuff

Avon River won (SP of 5/1)... missed the finish as some pesky customers wanted serving.... meh.

Now the not so good stuff. I do hope you all betfaired for some decent profit.

Lady Bluesky 25/1 --> 8/1 but did bugger all.
Ellmau 12/1 --> 9/2. Part one done...... Unfortunately Ellmau burst through the stalls causing a false start according to the RP. I couldn't see through the gloom, but when they restarted Ellmau was withdrawn, so gamble not landed.
Wiggy Smith 12/1 --> 5/2fav. A strange betting heat with Wiggy Smith going from outsider to favourite (after 2 withdrawals). With this now a 6 runner race, we already know what's going to happen, so yes Wiggy is 3rd...

All in all some amazing value prices, but no profit.... 2 days of immense frustration at this end and I'm sure we will get one soon. Keep the faith.

Saturday
I'm not going to trawl through all the big races today but pick out the best value if its there. Newcastle is now soft going.
3.10 Hits Only Vic is into 12/1 now from a lot bigger earlier due to him being one of the few with decent soft form.

Newmarket
4.35 Trumpet Lily (7/1, boylesports) looks too big in this 1m handicap.
5.05 King Of The Moors (14/1, Coral) gets his ground for the first time in a while today and is recommended. Hasn't hit the heights of his Hamilton win last September, and is dropped down to 7f for the first time in an eternity, but should be up there at the start and in the mix at the end.

Windsor 5.10 Neither Hallingdal (12/1) nor Binfield (22/1, Coral) sholud be as big as they are, but this is pretty competative, so either small stakes advised or some Betfair action required.

Doncaster 7.05 Ours (12/1, Stan James) should be snapped up before someone else does.

7.40 Whirlijig (14/1, Bet365, PP, SJ) is back on the flat after running on the flat (bumper style). Has place chances at a big price.

Lingfield 6.15 Really crap race. Lilly Blue (12/1, Bet365, Boylesports, SJ) showed enough at Wolverhampton LTO to get something here. Manolito Montoya (22/1, William Hill) has done bugger all so far, but should like the step up to 1m4f.

Ours is my best bet of the day I think... laters

disappointed

2009-06-26T11:03:00.000+01:00

Yesterday could have been so good but ends up frustrating as usual.

Moon Sister cruised up on the rail and had nowhere to go. I don't think Darryl Holland did it very well tbh, but once he knew there was no gap, he eased him into last place. Moon Sister started at 15/2 (from 20/1) so job done as far as I'm concerned. Follow this filly next time.

Mayfair's Future SP'd at 5/1 (from 14/1) and managed to get 2nd, 3 lengths behind the worthy winner.

Slightly down on the day, but I'm happy with both selections.

Today there's a few more bets, but nothing as strong as yesterday's two.

Doncaster
4.00 2-yo races aren't my thing usually, but Avon River (13/2, betfred, sportingbet) hasn't really put a foot wrong in his last 2 races, winning his Maiden in May and then stepping up in Class and Distance last time at the Derby meeting. Up in trip again and overpriced considering he's a Hannon horse.

Newcastle
7.55 Why is Lady Bluesky (25/1, vcbet, skybet), a former bumper winner running in 7f flat races? This is a crap race, Silk Trail (evsf) and Kammaan (3/1) will be in the frame, but the 3rd favourite, Riley Queen Bee (4/1) is nothing special and the rest are awful, putting Lady Bluesky in the hunt for a place. Not a big bet, but 2/1 for the place isn't too bad in this race.

8.25 Ellmau's 12/1 (bet365) is far too huge for this horse. They are out of line and you should be able to lay this off @ 8/1 nearer the off. Will need to get back to his Southwell win of last autumn, however this step back up in trip will suit. Handsome Falcon (3/1f) is a decent favourite but I hope Ellmau rediscovers his best today.

Newmarket
8.40 Wiggy Smith is probably my bet of the day at Betfred's outstanding 12/1. His disappointing run last time may have inflated his price today and I'm happy to back him. His price should be about 4/1 in my book. Really can't understand it myself. "Ground may be a concern" says the Racing Post.. Its Good ground FFS... He 6 wins have come on GS (1), GF (2) and Good (3).. Jeeesuzzzzzzzzz

2 good bets for thursday

2009-06-25T10:12:00.000+01:00

Apex ran well for the majority yesterday before fading late on. I'll keep a look out for him next time.

2 horses I think are ridiculous prices today are

Newcastle
5.00 Moon Sister (20/1, boylesports, sportingbet). Ok, first of all this is now down to 8 runners, so you are obviously taking a risk about another coming out, but this is a decent horse and he shouldn't be 20/1 (Hills are 9/1). Her main rivals are Gripsholm Castle (7/4f) and Lady Jane Digby (9/4), but this is a good trading opportunity with real place claims.

Kempton
6.10 Mayfair's Future (14/1, bet365). Wow, what a load of dross in this Class 6 donkeyfest. Again another overpriced horse compared to the market. If it doesn't make the frame, I'll give it up. Den Maschine (5/1, skybet, vc, bet365) is a worthy rival.

That's all folks...

Wednesday e/w

2009-06-24T10:13:00.000+01:00

Well Stoneacre Lad didn't offer much in the profit department. I tuned in to see him hit the reverse gear after what looked like a good first half of the race. pfft

Not much 'value' around today.

Kempton 8.50
Apex (25/1, general). This was a good horse in 2007. It hasn't run for 21 months now, so as always fitness has to be taken on trust. Martin Hill has a small stable and theoretically this is the best rated horse he has. These are the types of horses that only win if you don't back them (of course), so I have to include him for the day.

Monday

2009-06-22T10:58:00.001+01:00

Not much value around today......

3.15 Lingfield

Stoneacre Lad (12/1) has the ability to win this, certainly to get a place and I'd be disappointed if he didn't. His record of 0/11 (place record) over the past year is crap, but this could be the perfect race for him.

He won a Class 1, Listed race at Kempton last year and has consistently been running in C1/C2 ever since. His C3, 4th at York 10 days ago should have got him up for this one.

Tom Queally is on board who got him to win a Class 2 at Ascot in 2007, This is a Class 3 that he should really be winning on his ability.

Trainers to follow

2009-06-21T20:55:00.001+01:00

Richard Fahey's record this season has been pretty immense. Since March, he's sent out 369 flat runners with a 18.4% strike rate with a LSP of +£92 to a £1 stake or ROI of 125% (although this is boosted by a 66/1 at Ascot in Cosmic Sun).

If we concentrate on his top 3 jockeys his record improves even more.
Paul Hanagan 181 rides, 33 wins, ROI 133%
T Hamilton 65 rides, 12 wins, ROI 120%
Fred Tylicki 38 rides, 12 wins, ROI 229%

Hanagan has 4 rides this week for Fahey. Smarterthanutyhink, Bo McGinty and Starla Dancer at Beverley, Tuesday and William Morgan at Carlisle, Wednesday.
Tylicki rides Swinbrook at Newcastle, Friday.
Hamilton rides Starla Dancer at Hamilton, Thursday (if he runs).

The Barry Hills/ Richard Hills combination has also been pretty strong.
Since the start of the year Richard has ridden 20 horses for his father and has 8 wins. for a ROI of 256%. Michael Hills makes a profit too. 110 rides, 26 wins for 120% ROI.

So backing the Hills/Hills blindly gives a sound profit. However Barry Hills stats were immense in April/May and have tailed off a little, but after his successful Royal Ascot its certainly worth backing him in the big races.
Richard Hills record in Class 1 or 2 races is pretty hot, 6/14 with an ROI of 317%.
Michael Hills has 10/45, SR of 22% and ROI of 168%.

Michael Hills has 6 rides this week for Barry.

The final trainer to look at is Mark Johnston who has a fantastic record for getting his horses back to winning form after a break.
Horses tend to keep their fitness for a cetain period of time, about a month is generally the latest before they drop off. Johnston's record this year is 12/51 runners and a SR of 23.50%, generating an ROI of 134%. If you only look at his handicap runners his record is 10/38, SR of 26% and an ROI of 153%

His record after 90+ days off is pretty decent. 8/35 runs for an SR of 22.9% and returns of 116%, pretty decent back after a 3 month break.

Combining handicaps with 90+ days off and we have a 30% SR (167% ROI), his record being 7/23.
If you want to ge one step further his record for handicap 2 or 3 yo's male horses since March is as follows:
5/13, SR of 38.5% and a ROI of 232%, but that's getting a bit too fancy.

back Fahey with P Hanaghan, F Tylicki or T Hamilton on board.
back Michael or Richard Hills especially, riding for their father, especially in Class 1 or 2 races.
back Mark Johnston's horses in handicaps if they have been off for 90 days.

night.
VH

Thursday's Royal Ascot

2009-06-18T00:42:00.001+01:00

Very truncated message tonight.. No time, same likely tomorrow too.

2.30 - Norfolk Stakes
Monsieur Chevalier (13/8f) should win, but Yogaroo's 2 stablemates have hosed up in races on tues and weds, so he is now a big danger. Star Rover's (66/1) got decent form to get a place at huge odds, but ran averagely in tuesday's race.

3.00 - Ribblesdale Stakes
This revolves around 3 fillies. Leocorno (15/8f) hasn't done anything wrong so far, but has a tough race with Take The Hint (3/1) and Flying Cloud (9/1) challenging. Can't really split them.

3.45 - Gold Cup
Yeats (9/4f) has won this for the last 3 years. But he ran fairly pooly on his last run and no 8yo has won this for 90 years.
Geordieland (3/1) was runner-up the last 2 years and is also an 8yo. Patkai (10/3) is the up and coming horse that Geordieland beat last time.
Veracity (7/1) may get a place but probably won't win.

4.20 - Britannia Stakes
30 runner race. Should be sticking to horses drawn high or low.
The race today was won by those drawn low, so it could pay to stick with Brief Encounter (8/1) (drawn 6), Satwa Laird (40/1) (drawn 3) or River Captain (14/1) (drawn 2). Desert Creek (13/2f) is drawn the other side in 26.

4.55 - Hampton Court Stakes
Freemantle (5/4f) looks a good horse, but could be turned over by Monitor Closely (7/1). On Our Way (28/1) is an e/w shot.

5.30 - King George V Stakes
Quite a few at big prices to chose from. Again I'm going to stay fairly low on the draw as they definitely have an advantage.
I really fancy London Bridge (16/1) (drawn 8). Lasso The Moon (20/1) is drawn nicely in 6.
Those drawn a little higher are Dubai Crest in 10 (40/1), Chiberta King in 11 (9/1) and Takaatuf in 12 (20/1).

No milk today

2009-06-17T12:26:00.000+01:00

Very poor day (Ascot excepted).

Yesterday was also frustrating.

Hurlingham should have won, [rant] only his jockey thought he'd run up the fence into a gap that disappeared.[/rant]

Atlantic Beach was 4th but had every chance.

Galant Eye was backed off the boeards into 9/1 but never struck a blow. Well done if you traded that one.

Past Heratage was 3rd, behind the winner Just Like That

so 4pts down on the day. Still you will save some money today as the cards don't offer much for me.

Wednesday's Royal Ascot

2009-06-16T22:13:00.000+01:00

A quick recap of tuesday...
Paco Boy does stay. super run, Gladitorus was very disapointing.
Scenic Blast won as did Mastercraftsman who looked beat 1/2 a furlong from the finish, but came back superbly to beat Delegator.
Canford Cliffs hosed up too and is the horse to beat in the 2,000 Guineas next season.
Gala Evening was 4th for a nice e/w return.
And Little Scotland was 4th, so you got a payout with totesport or bet365, but not elsewhere. Yet I give mentions to the 2nds and 3rd in Di Steffano and Fratellino.. oh well. hope someone got lucky

Just a little over 2pts profit for the meeting. Happy with Gala Evening's run. Shame about Little Scotland. That cost me the placepot. Hope you took 4 places @ 14/1.

Right, onto Wednesday

2.30 Jersey Stakes - 7f for 3yo
A tricky renewal here. The winner usually comes from the top of the betting. Indicating Infiraad (5/1f) having a cracking chance. The Hills/Hills combination has been hot in recent weeks, but I don't think he's done too much in his 2 wins this term. Loch Linnhe (6/1) needs to step up for his debut win in May, and I'm happy to take him on too. Richard Hills prefers the favourite to stablemate Ouqba (10/1) although he is third top-rated. The joint top-rated horses, Gallagher (9/1) and Donativum (10/1), both decent 2-yo's. This is Gallagher's 1st run of the season and it remains to be seen whether he has trained on. Donativum ran poorly on his seasonal bough and I can't be with him. Dettori chooses Ashram (10/1) who disappointed in the Guineas. This should suit better but I'm not convinced. One that does fit the trends at a bigger price is Instalment (25/1, Stan James), however his record over 7f is 0-3, and looks a 6f horse.
I'm going to look at 2 horses to take them on with. Ocean's Minstrel (16/1) is improving with every run. His win at the Derby meet was decent enough and should bowl along in front from his low draw and his proven stamina can get him in the mix. Total Gallery (25/1, Lads) comes from a 5f race at Haydock against older horses, but both his excellent 6f wins also indicated (by way of in-running comments) that 6f is his limit. His trainer reckons he's a 5f horse, so I'm a little perplexed as to why he would run him at 7f for the first time and not the King's Stand over 5f on tuesday. A conundrum indeed, Watson.
Selection - Ocean's Minstrel (16/1 e/w, bet365, betfred).

3.05 Windsor Forest Stakes - 1m for Fillies
Looks a straight shootout between Lush Lashes (13/8f) who finally got some deserved wins at the end of last season, and Heaven Sent (5/2f). A 3rd horse to throw into the equation is Eva's Request (9/1, vcbet, Ladbrokes), however will like it a bit wet in the morning as she has no form on good-firm. Difficult decision. If the ground softens, then I'd take a punt on Eva's Request, but can't make a decision until then.
No selection

3.45 Prince Of Wales' Stakes - 1m2f
Never be afraid of foreign horses.. They usually end up a bigger price than they are entitled to be due to good old English xenophobia. Now the 2 with impressive French form are Vision D'Etat (7/2, vcbet) and Never On Sunday (4/1). Both excellent horses with results to match. Favourite Tartan Bearer (7/4f) of course has his chances but I'm not keen. I'd be happy to back Twice Over (8/1) but he doesn't win too much either.
Selection - Never On Sunday (4/1) as his stable is in form and Vision D'Etat may want further.

4.20 Royal Hunt Cup (Handicap) - 1m
30 runners up the straight mile. We must avoid horses drawn in the middle say 9-21 as thay have an awful record of even getting in the frame. Forgotten Voice (9/2f), great draw, great form, great chance. Far too short for me, remember handicap good thing Bankable from last year!!!
A few of these have won me money so I mustn't get sentimental over them. I could mull for hours over most of the field but this is a good trends race so if we combine form and stats we can only come up with one horse from 30. Mia's Boy (14/1). The draw is good and he is always there or there abouts. Ryan Moore rides him today and I'm pretty hopeful.
Selection - Mia's Boy (14/1, bet365 - 5places) Others to pay 5 places are totesport, boylesports, paddypower and stan james.

4.55 Queen Mary Stakes - 5f for 2y0 Filles
Another race where bare form and trends lead to only 2 selections. Don't Tell Mary (9/2, vcbet, Ladbrokes) and Misheer (11/1, vcbet, bluesquare). The favourite, Rose Blossom (4/1f), doesn't impress me too much.
Selection - Split stakes between Don't Tell Mary (9/2) and Misheer (11/1).

5.30 Sandringham Handicap - 1m for 3yo Fillies
Tough race to finish. I do like the top 2 in the market on Photographic (5/1f) and Moneycantbuymelove (15/2). Some of the would be challenger have somew good form on soft. But it ain't soft, so they are too risky. Sigh. Leave it alone is the best advice I can give.
Selection - Moneycantbuymelove (15/2) and Photographic (5/1f.

So that's that. Mia's Boy is my best bet, very little to be too confident about in the other races. I'll try and find some winners at the other meetings but that will probably be nearer 1pm if I make it at all.

Publish Post

Tuesday's tips

2009-06-16T10:15:00.000+01:00

Not too much else around today.

Thirsk
4.35 Not a bad little race here and Hurlingham (6/1, William Hill) seems a little on the large side. Consistent whenever he runs, I think 1m4f is his best distance and is worth backing at 6/1.

5.10 Atlantic Beach (9/2f, Lads, vc) is my selection. There aren't many who look to progressive this season. Stevie Gee (11/2) hasn't hit the heights of 2008 in his 4 runs this season. Two at bigger prices to make the frame could be Legal Eagle (12/1, Hills), who ran well at Doncaster and is dropped back down in Grade and Rasaman (14/1, general), who has good course form, however hasn't won at 6f for 3 years but I was impressed with his last race over 6f at Hamilton last week against some good horses.

Newton Abbot
6.45 Galant Eye (33/1, bet365, Paddypower) hasn't run for 14 months, but I'm more than happy to back him if he can get back to the form of his win here 3 years ago (yes he's only run 3 times since then). a bit of rain would go amiss, but I'll take the good ground. I fully expect him to start 16/1, so Betfair me up.

7.45 Past Heritage (7/1, general) is my pick. Fitness taken on trust, however I'm always happy to back them after a few months off especially in a weak renewal such as this. Just Like That (3/1f) his likeliest rival.

Re-Launch for Royal Ascot

2009-06-15T23:08:00.001+01:00

Right, I really have to pull my finger out.... This will have some sort of bollocks on it at least 3 times a week..... I promise....

We will start with an analysis of the first day of Royal Ascot as it has been requested by one loyal follower....

2.3o Queen Anne Stakes - 1 mile
Does Paco Boy (7/2) stay a mile? I don't think he does, this should prove it one way or the other. Gladitorus (5/2f) should reproduce his Dubai wins here and if he does will be the one to beat. Main Aim (9/2) tries a mile for the first time. A really decent horse over 7f, but I just don't know if he'll stay so I'm staying away. Alexandros (8/1) put Paco Boy and Aqlaam (10/1) to the sword last time out, but that was on softer. Mac Love (50/1) won well last time out and a good 4th (50/1) the time before that. If they go too quick, then he could be staying on past beaten horses for a place.
Selection - Gladitorus 5/2f (Ladbrokes, Coral, Stan James, vcbet)

3.05 King Stand Stakes - 5f
The talking horse here is Amour Propre (7/2), well I heard nothing else from the Racing Press in the last 2 weeks. Yup, the way he won the Palace House stakes was very impressive and he should be on everyone's shortlist. Scenic Blast (3/1f) is the Australian jolly. The Aussies have a great record in this race and he has to be seriously considered. Borderlescott (10/1) is a punter's favourite, not that he wins very much. A perennial bridesmaid in so many races, so place possiblities at best. The last 2 I'm considering are Fleeting Spirit (9/2) and Tax Free (11/1). Fleeting Spirit has been away for 8 months, but can go well fresh and If he's up to his form can threathen the status quo. Tax Free is an e/w shot . Personally I can't see him winning but could make the frame.
Selection - Can't split them, so 1/2 pt on Amour Propre 7/2 and Scenic Blast 3/1f.

3.45 St James Palace Stakes - 1m for 3yo
Mastercraftsman (9/10f) is the best horse here judging by his destruction of the field in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. that was on soft ground but has won on good-firm. Delegator (9/2) gets his ground to turn the tables, but really has it all to do. Soul City (22/1) followed the favourite home in 3rd and is value. Evasive (5/1) needs to find something to reverse form here but isn't without hope if he strips fitter for his 2,000 Guineas 6th.
Selection - Mastercraftsman 9/10f (vcbet) and Soul City 22/1 (vcbet).

4.20 Coventry Stakes - 6f for 2yo
Trends-wise this is pretty straight-forward. The winner will come from either, Canford Cliffs (2/1f), No Hubris (11/2) or Red Jazz (8/1). FACT.
Selection - none or all 3.

4.55 Ascot Stakes (Handicap) - 2m4f
Last Year's winner, Missoula (20/1) runs again and is 2lbs lower this year but doesn't seem to be in anywhere near to winning this at the moment. Kayf Aramis (7/1f) hosed up 2 runs ago, but disappointed LTO at Goodwood, but that probably came too soon. A solid favourite. Sesenta (9/1) hasn't put a foot wrong in last 2 starts and has the profile to take this. Probably not a great race from a punters prospective. There are few no-hopers in this (100/1 shot Valentino Rossi being an exception). Even Gala Evening (25/1) has a realistic chance in this, and if the rain was to come I'd consider Fire And Rain (28/1).
Selection - Gala Evening (25/1) at a push.

5.30 Windsor Castle Stakes - 5f for 2yo
Not really the kind of race to get you out of trouble. 100/1 shot Flashman's Papers won it last year for John Best. George Baker rides George Baker (33/1) for George Baker and it ran an ok 3rd at 33/1 last time. Mick Channon has a good record and saddles Di Stefano (33/1). Mister Mannanan (4/1f) has the profile of a winner and Angel's Pursuit (5/1) has won well on his only start so far. But I'm going to have to find a big priced horse for you. Fratellino (40/1) has some decent form in the book, but looks too exposed to win this. Star Rover (12/1) is a possibility but I can't help think he isn't classy enough to win. Dancing Freddie (50/1, stan james) also needs to come on again. Little Scotland (16/1, Ladbrokes, vcbet) has a good draw and is racing here instead of the fillies race.
Selection - Nothing much. Star Rover 12/1 and Little Scotland 16/1 against the field if I have to stick my neck out.

totesport and bet365 are offering 4 places @ 1/4 odds. Boylesports and skybet only offer 3 places @ 1/5 odds.

The rest of the days racing should be reviewed later.

Aintree Day 2

2009-04-03T09:47:00.000+01:00

2.00
This is all about American Trilogy (11/4f, sportingbet), the impressive Cheltenham winner. He should win as this looks a fairly average field. He 'should' win.

2.35
Herecomesthetruth (9/4f, sportingbet) goes for a five-timer today and is a worthy favourite here. I thought that Massini's Maguire (5/2) ran like he's ready for the step up to 3m1f at Cheltenham (3rd behind Cooldine) but of the two Herecomesthetruth looks more solid. This looks tough for Shining Gale (13/2, sportingbet), who will win races at a lower level. Siegemaster (10/1) is a horse who I've followed over in Ireland for a bit. I backed him at Cheltenham where he fell whilst up with the pace. I expect him to come on and challenge here if he jumps well.

3.10
RIP Exotic Dancer, who died of a heartattack in his stable after a fine run yesterday.
I'm hoping that Voy Por Ustedes (13/8f, vcbet) will do what he did last year and win at Aintree after a disappointing Cheltenham. He's the best horse here. Tidal Bay (11/2, vcbet, Ladbrokes, Coral) needs to put his Cheltenham display behind him and is best watched. Of the e/w chances, Petit Robin (12/1, spbet, Bluesq) looks the most likely. Brierius (22/1) is dropped down in trip by over half a mile and I would prefer him over 3m.

3.45
28 runners and the best horse to back is the favourite.....pants. Lots of 'Grand National' rejects in here over 2m5f... Hmmm. Anyways Ping Pong Sivola (15/2f, spbet) should be in your placepot, but I wouldn't be backing him at that price. Mr Pointment (9/1) is hard to recommend and Gwanako (8/1) only wins if I don't back him ( I haven't) . I back New Little Bric @ 40/1 where he runs crap and he then hoses up at 14/1 next time. He's 14/1 here and I wouldn't back him with stolen money. Oodachee (22/1) was decent at Cheltenham and if you ignore that, he's got conditions to suit here. Looks like a great race... to watch.

4.20
Ah, A battle of the Cheltenham Novices. The race where I got Chief Dan George @ 40/1, 2 years ago as Wichita Lineman and Massini's Maguire went hammer and tongs all the way round only for CDG to plod along and take them in the run-in... Great scenes... The 3rd that day??? Imperial Commander, winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Ryanair Chase this season for £210k. Anyway back to business. I'd love to tell you who's going to win but I can't, best to watch some future chase winners in action. Mikael D'Haugenet's fine run 3 weeks ago makes Karabak (9/4f, William Hill) the favourite. He should be suited by this trip, but I didn't think he ran a great race there, he has something to prove. Pride Of Dulcote looks too big at 11/2 considering he only lost to Weapons Amnesty (11/2) by 1/2 length at Cheltenham. The better ground is in his favour and is my selection. Unchartered territory for According To Dick (9/1, blusq) and is ignored.

4.55
I've never rated Aigle D'or (13/2f) and I'm not going to start now. Piriya (25/1) was awful at Cheltenham, I'm loathed to give him another chance in a competative race like this. A race to leave methinks. Not even a token e/w selection. :-(

5.30
Mare's Bumper. Morning Supreme (7/2f) was 5th at Cheltenham (behind the very impressive Dunguib) and now races against the girls. Should win, but something always comes along and you should be in the pub by now anyway....

NAP 2.00 American Trilogy
NB 3.10 Voy Por Ustedes

Grand National thoughts

2009-04-01T00:17:00.000+01:00

Grand National Thoughts (wednesday 1st April, 12.30am)

Horse Age-Weight Notes

Cloudy Lane 9-11-10 A class horse who won’t be winning, carrying 11-10 round Aintree.

Chelsea Harbour 9-11-8 Dark horse last year before fading. Experience may count, but won’t ship this weight around Aintree.

Snowy Morning 9-11-8 Good horse and a live chance if the weights hadn’t shifted him up to 11-8. Too much to bear now.

Knowhere 11-11-7 Too much weight.

Comply Or Die 10-11-6 Last year’s winner and one for the shortlist then. Shouldering half a stone more this year and nowhere near the form of last season. Ran ok at Cheltenham to finish 7th in the William Hill Trophy behind Maljimar (2nd)

Ollie Magern 11-11-6 Just behind Comply Or Die at Cheltenham, Another with a large weight burden. Will bowl long up front and fade on the second circuit.

Stan 10-11-6 As well as lumping the weight around, still hasn’t won over further than 2m 5f, so won’t be winning this.

Black Apalachi 10-11-5 The first of the possible winners. With the weights compacted at around 10-7, it’s feasible that a horse carrying 11-5 will win, so I won’t bump them off completely, however I’d still prefer a horse carrying 11st max. Fits the trends and has a good chance of a place, and possibly a win.

Hear The Echo 8-11-5 The same as above. A good profile but too much weight probaibly.

Preists Leap 9-11-5 An Irish raider that hasn’t protected his handicap mark thanks to a fine win at Gowran Park in January beating Chelsea Harbour. Can’t see how he will win this unless it becomes a mudbath and even then a bottom weight will surely beat him.

My Will 9-11-4 Hmmm. A Paul Nicholls good thing... well, Nicholls doesn’t hide his horses from the handicapper, which is the main reason he has never won the Grand National. My Will could change all that after a brave 5th in the Gold Cup. But surely that’s what he was aimed for and he won’t have enough to win this carrying 11-4. Is a few pounds ‘well in’ at the weights but no value now. Oh and he’s French-bred, a National no-no according to the longstanding trends, although I won’t rule out a horse on just that stat.

Eurotrek 11-11-3 Avoid, no Grand National winner has 2 years out of the loop. Because of this he’s hardly experienced, even at 11 and carrying over 11st is a no no.

State Of Play 9-11-2 I felt that he was a real dark horse but is burdened with 11-2 now which is a negative. However could go close and I certainly would back against him.

Big Fella Thanks 7-11-1 Good horse, wrong race, Paul Nicholls obsession with 6 & 7 year olds running in this race is ridiculous. 6 starts over fences does not a GN winner make.

Mon Mome 9-11-0 French-bred, but one that could break that trend. Beat Star De Mohaison (poor at Cheltenham), Character Building (great at Cheltenham) and Comply Or Die in December but ran averagely in the Welsh National. Outside chance.

Silver Birch 12-11-0 Winner in 2007, but has been injured since. Has a good profile if a little old. Not impressed in his last 2 point-to-points, and is reluctantly passed over.

Butler’s Cabin 9-10-13 Backed this year because he was travelling so well under McCoy before falling last year. He wasn’t going to win last year and he shouldn’t win this year either.
French-bred with a tough run at Cheltenham and not in the form he was 2 years ago when he won the Irish National.

Offshore Account 9-10-13 Inexperienced and can be ignored.

Parsons Legacy 11-10-12 Looks to have a good profile and beat some good horses at Cheltenham in December. Place possibilities more likely that a win, but can’t rule out.

Reveillez 10-10-12 Profile fits all the trends, apart from the ‘ran at Cheltenham’ semi-trend where he was 11th in the William HIll Trophy. A winner at the Aintree meeting in 2008.

Fundamentalist 11-10-11 Not sure he has the stamina for this, however he does pass all the trends. Was pulled-up at Cheltenham in the WH Trophy

Golden Flight 10-10-11 True French-bred with only 2 races in this country (both at Cheltenham, where he managed 12th in the WH Trophy). Passes the stats, but a lack of experience of UK fences is a massive negative.

L’Ami 10-10-11 Another Frenchie, whose tough race in the Cross-Country Chase (2nd) won’t have him at his peak for this. Sure to run his race, but not sure he will be good enough.

Battlecry 8-10-10 Decent horse, this isn’t his race. Only win over 3 miles was over hurdles. Why would he win this?

Cornish Sett 10-10-10 Ran a great race in the Welsh National to finish 2nd after staying on strongly at the end. A Nicholls horse that is actually a Grand National type. A lively outsider.

Fleet Street 10-10-10 Too inexperience to win this, sorry.

Musica Bella 9-10-10 Where to start. French-bred Mare who’s never won over 3m. Ignore, ignore, ignore

Can’t Buy Time 7-10-9 Good 4th in the NH Chase at Cheltenham over 4 miles, however 7 year olds don’t win the National, so has to be passed over. One for the future.

Darkness 10-10-9 Passes the trends, in fact is a perfect fit, however all of his wins have been in small fields and this has to be a major worry. If McCoy was on him, he’d be half the price. One worry was his failure to finish the Welsh National (big field) but this was only his 2nd run in 30 months.

Irish Invader 8-10-9 Only 3 mile win was over hurdles. Not on my short-list.

Rambling Minster 11-10-9 Comes into the reckoning after a superb ride in the BlueSquare Gold Cup at Haydock in Feb. Very good chance especially if there’s some rain.

Southern Vic 10-10-9 Fell in the Becher Chase at the Canal turn whilst running well (his only ever run outside Ireland, hmmm). Passes all the trends and could run a big race.

Kilbeggan Blade 10-10-7 In great form and has a definite ‘live’ chance. Should be on everyone’s shortlist.

Brooklyn Brownie 10-10-6 His biggest win was the Perth Gold Cup, beating Snoopy Loopy (2nd) and Out The Black (5th,) last summer. That was worth £16,000 and every recent winner of the National has won a race more valuable than that. I guess he can run into a place at a nice price.

Himalayan Trail 10-10-6 Too inexperienced to win this, however he won the Midlands National last year and that is a plus. Could get a place if he gets round.

Arteea 10-10-5 Wilson owned horse, so well out of its depth here. 57 lengths behind Character Building at Cheltenham and only stepped up to 3 miles in February.. No no no no.

Cerium 8-10-5 Another Wilson horse, ran in the Gold Cup and didn’t pull-up, which was a surprise. If you still fancy backing him, he’s French...

Idle Talk 10-10-5 Isn’t good enough to win this, his biggest win was a Novices’ Chase in 2006 for £6,000.

Kelami 11-10-5 Might have been good enough once, but this French-bred doesn’t have it any more.

Zabenz 12-10-5 Too old now, although still passes all the trends. One win since 2002 says it all.

-----------------------------aren’t in the race below this line-----------------------------------

Maljimar 9-10-4 Mugged by Wichita Lineman at Cheltenham. Has never won over 3 miles (though would have at Cheltenham) Has a chance if he gets in.

Companero 9-10-3 Novice chaser with only 3 starts over fences (2 this year!!!) Look elsewhere.

Pomme Tiepy 6-10-3 French-bred mare. If one was going to win, then this would be the one, but it won’t so don’t bother.

Niche Market 8-10-3 Only win was the Listed Silver Cup at Ascot in December, however that gets him through the important trends. I Would be a little worried about his lack of experience. 8th, behind Nine De Sivola and Can’t Buy Time at Cheltenham last month.

Mattock Ranger 9-10-3 Irish raider who passes all the trends. Pulled-up in 5 of the last 6 races. Leave alone.

Iron Man 8-10-3 French-bred who’s never won over 3 miles. Fell last year. Not going to win.

Flintoff 8-10-2 Andy’s horse, lead over the last in the Midlands National last month and ran superbly at a big price in the Scottish National last year (I backed him @ 66/1 ). Biggest win was £5000 2 years ago. Would be a massive shock if he won, but could nick a place at a push).

Patsy Hall 9-10-2 Fell in the William Hill Trophy 2 out and was staying on. Jumping a problem and now hasn’t won for over 2 years.

Bible Lord 8-10-2 One of the favourite for the Paddy Power Gold Cup this season, but has done nothing this season. Not a Grand National horse I’m afraid.

Dix Villez 10-10-2 Ran in the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham (5th, behind L’Ami). Difficult to see this French-bred winning this. Biggest win beating Garde Champetre in the Glenfarcas Cross-Country Chase in November (£15,000).

Bagan 10-10-2 French-bred, doesn’t have the class to win this. Best win was his last, a year ago, winning over 2m4f at Warwick.

Beat The Boys 8-10-2 Not finished in his last 3 starts, including the Midlands National. Beating Joe Lively last year was his best win and that only got connections £11,000. Nope.

--------------------------------very unlikely to run-------------------------------------------

In The Loop 11-10-1 4 chase starts. No chance.

Seymour Weld 9-10-1 Fails every trend, but at least it isn’t French eh. Never even raced at 3 miles or more in 7 starts.

Pak Jack 9-10-1 Frenchie without a 3 mile win (only 3 starts at 3m +). Only win was a 2 miler at Kempton in 2005. No chance.

Nadover 8-10-1 Out and out stayer, who was 7th last year. French-bred though, and still hasn’t won a classy race or over 3 miles. Same again I’d imagine.

Nine De Sivola 8-10-0 3rd to the Tricky Trickster at Cheltenham in the 4 miler. Very consistent, however he hasn’t won a classy race yet and this French-bred won’t be winning this.

Tom Sayers 11-10-0 Passes the trends, finding his feet after a year out. Difficult to see it winning.

Oodachee 10-9-12 8th in the Kim Muir. A winner of lots of low grade events in Ireland and I can’t see him troubling the bookies in this.

Kings Advocate 9-9-11 Missing for nearly 2 years and therefore hasn’t run in enough chases or gained any decent scalps. Leave it.

Out The Black 11-9-10 Good stayer who is probably just not good enough for this. Won’t get in anyway.

Dun Doire 10-9-10 Punted into 11/1 in 2006. Hasn’t completed in 3 National starts and is now a shadow of his former self. Obviously passes all the trends but 1 win in 3 years tells its own story.

Without A Doubt 10-9-10 Without the 3 mile win needed and hasn’t got the class to win this I’m afraid.

Le Toscan 9-9-10 Its an inexperienced French-bred, without a quality win or one over the required 3 mile trend. Avoid like Le plague.

Puntal 13-9-10 Pulled-up in the Cross-Country Chase at Cheltenham. This French-bred was a fantastic 6th in 2006 @ 66/1 after over a year off. Done nothing since and won’t be getting involved at 13 years old.

Alexanderthegreat 11-9-7 Hasn’t won a good race and looks a bit long in the tooth to be starting now. Was pretty unlucky in the Kim Muir, as he had nowhere to go when a horse fell in front. Consistent when completing, but last and biggest win was in 2007.

Milan Deux Mille 7-9-7 This French-bred is only 7 and hasn’t yet won over 3 miles or won a £17,000 race yet. Avoid.

Sandhurst 9-9-5 Inexperienced and therefore hasn’t won a £17,000 race yet. Pulled up in the Exeter heavy ground marathon slog in March (Lysander 3rd). Won’t get round.

Malko De Beaumont 9-9-4 French-bred, however passes all other trends.

Lord Killeshanra 10-9-4 Likeable horse who’s only win came in a Novice Chase in 2005. Leave alone.

Lysander 10-9-4 Very consistent, but all low grade events. Hasn’t the class to win this.

Pass Me By 10-9-2 Passes the stats but not good enough for this.

Mont Misere 13-9-1 Haha. This is a joke right. A 13 year old, without the class or the stamina that is also French. Would need 5 legs just to keep up. Ps.. Last of 4 on Tuesday at Wetherby.

Trends:
Weight: The stats on weight are skewed now as the 40 horses running are of better quality than before. The bottom weight is now well above the 10-0 minimum and will probably carry 10-5, where previously they would have been out of the handicap. So a horse carrying over 11st can now win, but it is very unlikely that one carrying more than 11-5 will. Hedgehunter won with 11-1 in 2005 and Rhyme ‘n’ Reason won in 1988 (11-0). Red Rum (11-8) being the only one to win carrying over the 11-5 threshold in the last 40 years. Horses with big weights can still get placed, Hedgehunter in 2006 and Royal Auclair in 2005 both carried 11-12 & 11-10 to 2nd place.
Horses removed (7): Cloudy Lane, Chelsea Harbour, Snowy Morning, Knowhere, Comply Or Die, Ollie Magern, Stan

Age: The ideal age for a national winner is 8-12 years old. Youngsters don’t have the stamina to win it and older horses don’t have the speed. No 7yo has won since Bogskar in 1940, with Sergeant Murphy the last 13yo to win in 1923.
Horses removed (7): Eurotrek, Big Fella Thanks, Can’t Buy Time, Pomme Tiepy, Puntal, Milan Deux Mille, Mont Misere

Distance: 4 miles 4 furlongs is the ultimate stamina test. We have to look at horses that have winning form over 3 miles if they are going to win this. Gay Trip (1970) was the last winner who hadn’t previously won over 3m or more.
Horses Removed (12): Musica Bella, Arteea, Cerium, Maljimar, Iron Man, Bible Lord, Nadover, Pak Jack, Seymour Weld, Kings Advocate, Le Toscan, Without A Doubt

Experience: 40 horses over big fences for over 4 miles. Young pups without the necessary jumping experience have problems. In the last 10 years every winner had at least 10 jump races under his belt.
Horses Removed (6): Offshore Account, Fleet Street, Himalayan Trail, Companero, In The Loop, Sandhurst

Class: Bad horses don’t win good races. Every winner in the last 10 years had been placed in a graded chase and won a race of £17k+ in value.
Horses Removed (17): Brooklyn Brownie, Idle Talk, Bagan, Beat The Boys, Dix Villez, Flintoff, Patsy Hall, Nine De Sivola, Oodachee, Out The Black, Alexanderthegreat, Lord Killeshanra, Lysander, Kilbeggan Blade, Mattock Ranger, Niche Market, Tom Sayers

French-breds: French-bred’s have a poor record in the race (no winner since 1909). In France, there are very few long-distance races and therefore the horses are bred to run over shorter distances. The French fences are less testing too. The quality is improving and one-day this stat will be broken so I would rather couple it with another before ruling out completely.
Horses Removed (7): My Will (ran at Cheltenham), Mon Mome (66/1 shot), Butler’s Cabin (ran at Cheltenham), Golden Flight (ran at Cheltenham), L’Ami (ran at Cheltenham), Kelami (no win over 3m+ since 2005), Malko De Beaumont (200/1 shot)

Price: No 50/1 winner since Last Suspect in 1985. Am going to rule out horses greater than 66/1.
Horses Removed (5):Zabenz 150/1 (no run for nearly 2 years), Dun Doire 100/1 (not rated between 136-157, needs it soft), Reveillez 100/1 (back this season after 2 years off, nothing to suggest he can win this judging by his comeback runs), Fundamentalist 150/1 (Passes the trends, however barely and for an older horse, hasn’t run much at marathon distances), Pass Me By 200/1 (passes trends but not really good enough)

Horses Left (12):
Black Apalachi 16/1 (Will need some rain. Has never won without ‘soft’ in the going. Would have a chance otherwise)
Hear The Echo 16/1 (War Of Attrition get pulled out of the race, thus keeping his stable-mate at a nice weight. Hmmm. However this could be Ireland’s best chance this year, but weight must be an issue)
Preists Leap 66/1 (would love the rain, won’t be good enough otherwise.)
State Of Play 14/1 (A little too much weight for an ideal bet, however It’s tempting to think it has a chance. Only 2 runs this season and none since the turn of the year is a negative)
Silver Birch 66/1 (2 runs in P2Ps since National win in 2007. Not the profile to win this now)
Parsons Legacy 20/1 (Backed in from 40/1 on Tuesday morning and it’s easy to see why as he finished 3rd to Hot Weld in the Scottish National in 2007. Will appreciate the good ground more than others.)
Battlecry 50/1 (£17k, 3m hurdle win @ Doncaster in Jan 2008 only success in either category, doesn’t win in big fields. Pass)
Cornish Sett 33/1 (12th last year but improved since. Runner-up whilst staying on in the Welsh National at Christmas, good chance of a place at a big price).
Darkness 22/1 (Another that doesn’t run well in big fields, otherwise a very consistent performer. Only 1 win in over 3 years.)
Irish Invader 25/1 (fairly prolific of late, but hasn’t beaten too much in those races. Only 1 run at 3m1f or more is a negative)
Rambling Minster 11/1 (Hadn’t done too much, but been a revelation since turn of year, winning twice in decent contests i n Jan and Feb)
Southern Vic 25/1 (no win since 2006, prolific in Ireland, in 2004-05. All wins on soft or heavy.)

6 of the Best:
Hear The Echo @ 16/1
State Of Play @ 14/1
Parsons Legacy @ 20/1
Cornish Sett @ 33/1
Irish Invader @ 25/1
Rambling Minster @ 11/1

Cheltenham Festival - Day 4

2009-03-13T02:56:00.000Z

Friday’s Cheltenham Preview
1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle (2m 1f)
Walkon 9/2f, Zaynar 5/1, Master Of Arts 6/1, Starluck 13/2, Ebadiyan 9/1, Lethal Weapon 14/1, Jumbo Rio 14/1, 18/1 bar
Trends: We’re looking towards a market leader, who’s finished top 2 LTO, won at least twice and preferably run within the last 7 weeks.
This leaves Jumbo Rio @ 14/1 (Bluesq), Master Of Arts @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes), Ebadiyan @ 9/1 (bluesq) and Walkon @ 9/2f (general)
Value: Trenchant @ 20/1 (general) and Reve De Sivola @ 2/1 (vcbet, paddypower, bet365) both pass the trends (apart from the market leaders). I think one of them will get into the frame.

2.05 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle (2m 1f)
Dave’s Dream 5/1f, Sunnnyhillboy 15/2, Aachen 8/1, Cockney Trucker 9/1, Raise Your Heart, 12/1, Kandari 18/1, 20/1 bar
Trends: Were look for a fancied horse aged 5 or 6 (won 37 of 46 renewals). 13 of the last 20 winners had won LTO, (another 4 were second) and they must have had at least 5 runs over hurdles. This still leaves 4 in. Raise Your Heart @ 12/1 (general), Dave’s Dream @ 5/1f (bluesq, Paddypower, Coral, Betfred), Sky Hall @ 20/1 (skybet) and Sunnyhillboy 15/2 (William Hill).
Value: I think the market has it pretty spot on and I’d rather leave this alone.
2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Spa Novices’ Hurdle Race) (3m)
Cape Tribulation 7/2jf, Pride Of Dulcote 7/2jf, Alpha Ridge 8/1, Weapon’s Amnesty 11/1, On Raglan Road 14/1, Chariot Charger 16/1, 18/1 bar
Trends: The race has only been going 4 years, so trends are limited. The previous 4 had all won at 2m5f or more and won a graded hurdle, so that looks a good stat. They also were 1st/2nd LTO and are rate on RPR of 139+.
Alpha Ridge @ 8/1 (general), Cape Tribulation @ 7/2jf (general), Pride OF Dulcote @ 7/2jf (Bluesq, PaddyPower, Coral), Thetwincamdrift @ 16/1 (general), Weapon’s Amnesty 11/1 (William Hill)
Value: Very little, the winner should come from the top 4 in the market.

3.20 Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m 2f 110y)
Kauto Star2/1f, Neptune Collonges 6/1, Denman 13/2, Exotic Dancer 8/1, Madison Du Berlais 10/1, Barbers Shop 11/1, 16/1 bar
Trends: We can rule out the older horses, any not in the Top 4 LTO, those with only 1 run this season. And you need 6-13 chase starts, A grade 1 win and won a graded chase this year and a 1st or 2nd at a previous festival. Simples! Kauto Star or Exotic Dancer
Value: Madison Du Beralis @ 10/1 (general) is improving all the time, but I can’t help but think that last year’s 4th could run into a place. Halcon Generlardais is 66/1 (general). There must be a ‘without’ market where we can get some e/w. A big old price.
4.00 Christie’s Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup (3m 2f 110y)
Juveigneur 5/1f, Cappa Bleu 11/2, Amicelli 8/1, Royal Auclair 10/1, Kingscliff 12/1, Limerick Boy 14/1, 18/1 bar
Trends: The trends rule out a few but there are still 8 horses left in. Juveigneur isn’t one of them ;-)
Value: Difficult to find an edge. So I won’t.
4.40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (2m 4f 110y)
Big Eared Fran 5/1, Mamlook, 7/1, Buena Vista 12/1, Penn Da Benn 12/1, Hangover 14/1, Little Shilling 16/1, 20/1 bar
Value: First running of this race. I think Piraya is a big old price @ 25/1 (PaddyPower)
5.15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Handicap) (2m 110y)
Poquelin 11/2, French Opera 9/1, Tiger Cry 10/1, Pasco 10/1, Clew Bay Cove 10/1,
My Petra 11/1, 12/1 bar
Trends: 7 left in after applying the trends. Hard race but, Poquelin and French Opera are the only market leaders that pass all the trends
Value: Very little, the winner is usually 10/1 or less, however L’Orient Express is overprice at 16/1 (vcbet, WH, Lad, Betfred) . Tiger Cry won this last year and Moon Over Miami is a lovely horse who love Cheltenham, but need to improve to reach the heights of 2007.

Cheltenham Day 2

2009-03-11T11:48:00.001Z

Wednesday’s Cheltenham Preview

Not a bad day yesterday, I think I managed to make a tiny profit, very unusual for the 1^st day. Forpadydeplasterer won @ 8/1. Nenuphar Collonges was 3^rd @ 17/2 (was 20/1), The Sawyer ran a great race before finishing 5^th, hopefully some of you got paid out on that .Boylesports did 5 places and are also offering guaranteed odds, as are Victor Chandler. Enda Bolger had a 1-2-3 in the Cross Country, the only value being the 3^rd, Drombeag which was 12/1 for most of the day.

1.30 139^th Year Of The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase (4m)

Can’t Buy Time 9/2f, Kornati Kid 8/1, Coe 9/1, Niche Market 10/1, Forest Leaves 11/1, Parsons Pistol 12/1, 14/1 bar

Wow. For a 4 mile race I can see that most of the field have barely run over 3 ½ m. The only 3 that have managed it are Niche Market, Nine De Sivola and Tank Top. Interesting. However lets go through the trends.

Trends: Were looking for a 7-9yo horse with at least 3 runs over fences and a good run over 3m+, preferably finishing in the top 4 LTO. This isn’t a race for favourites either so plenty of value around. No 6yo has won for 20 years and no 5yo for over 30 years. This doesn’t rule out very many unfortunately. (Drumconvis, Fair Point, Hennesey, Itsa Legend, Le Beau Bai and Nuvelli are scratched) Wichita Lineman is a non-runner after yesterday’s fantastic effort.

Value: Nine De Sivola’s best performance was in the Scottish National (2^nd), however this was on good to firm ground and I’m not sure Cheltenham will suit either. We’ll see.

Of the market leaders, I’m probably going to side with Coe @ 9/1 (PaddyPower, Ladbrokes, William Hill or - 7/1 insured first 3 with PP) who’s 2 runs this year at Haydock were pretty impressive. Doesn’t have the course form which is a worry, but no-one stands out in that respect. Parson’s Pistol @ 12/1 (William Hill) is an interesting Irish raider and is worth a small each way. Looks like the market leaders will prevail here, I can’t give you a value e/w selection, so maybe another race to watch.

2.05 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (2m 5f)

Mikael D’Haguenet 7/2f, Karabak 18/5, Diamond Harry 5/1, Mad Max 13/2, The Nightingale 14/1, Quwetwo 20/1, Knockara Beau 20/1, 28/1 bar

Trends: This looks a little easier. Winners of this have finished top 2 in all their completed hurdle starts with a 50% win percentage. They need to have won over at least 2 ½ miles and 21 of the last 23 winner have started in the top 6 of the betting. Only 1 7yo+ winner in this from over 100 runners. 6 yo have won 7 of the last 9.

This leaves Diamond Harry @ 5/1 (Paddypower, Coral), Karabak @ 18/5 (Sportingbet) and The Nightingale @ 14/1 (Sportingbet, Stan James)

Value:

Diamond Harry has done nothing wrong and is a nice price now thanks to Mikael D’Haguenet. Another who looks superb. Of the others Karabak and Mad Max have very good chances. Of the 4 I will plump for Diamond Harry @ 5/1. Each way, Junior @ 40/1 (general) has decent course form with his 3^rd in last year’s Coral Cup.

2.40 Royal & Sun Alliance Chase (3m 110y)

Cooldine 7/2f, What A Friend 6/1, Carruthers 6/1, Gone To Lunch, 15/2, Massini’s Maguire, Killyglen 14/1, Casey Jones 14/1, 16/1 bar

Trends: Here, we are looking for horses with form, 1^st/2^nd LTO (31 of last 34 winners did this), At least 3 runs over fences and the last 10 winners weren’t brought over from the flat. Oh and rated within 14lbs of the RPR top rated. (Bye bye Hold Em, Horner Woods, Lightning Strike, Lodge Lane, The Market Man and Bohemian Lass). Well that’s great, still all the top horses still in, oh well lets look a bit closer.

Value: Never been a What A Friend fan, sorry Alex.... All Gone To Lunch’s wins have been in small field and this will be too competitive for him. I fancy Cooldine @ 7/2f (general)over Carruthers @ 6/1 (general) although both should run well. Ballyfitz @ 22/1 (sportingbet) has excellent course form on the ground and Irish runner Siegemaster @ 25/1 (bet365, Totesport, Sportingbet, Skybet) is well regarded.

3.20 Queen Mother Champion Chase (2m)

Master Minded 2/5f, Big Zeb 12/1, Well Chief 14/1, Petit Robin 18/1, Briareus 20/1, Twist Magic 20/1, 50/1 bar

Right, Master Minded @ 2/5f (William Hill) will win by 20 lengths if he jumps well. Each way, Briereus (20/1, Paddypower) looks decent for a place. He beat I’msingingtheblues @ Kempton, before a good 4^th in the King George. However his best form is over 3m. Well Chief (14/1)was class, and Twist Magic @ 20/1 is going backwards.

4.00 Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) (2m 5f)

The Polomoche 7/1f, Psycho 9/1, Pause And Clause 11/1, Ambobo 12/1, Great Endeavour 12/1, Mirage Dore 16/1, Gee Dee Nen 16/1, 18/1 bar

Trends: The trends rule out a few. Lough Derg is surely carrying too much weight here, though it hasn’t stopped him before. Of the favourites, Gee Dee Nen has won a race as good as this. The other pass the test.

Value: A very tough race. I though Naiad Du Misselot last year was a stand out, however thiis almost impossible. I’ll find 2-3 fun each ways, however minimum stakes advised.

Onnix @ 40/1 (general) 6^th in last year’s Pertemps Hurdle, with some good horses ahead of him. Proves he can handle the trak and is worth a dabble.

Ambobo @ 12/1 (Bet365, Coral – both 5 places) looks a little big here and should make the frame

Serabad @ 25/1 (Bet365 – 5 places) – Think this is a big price and I fancy a big run.

Ninetieth Minute @ 18/1 (coral -5 places) Outside chances but should handle the course.

Chief Yeoman @ 33/1 (Boylesports – 5 places) Big price, may sneak a place

4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (2m 110y)

Alexander Severus 5/1f, Miss Sarenne 8/1, Amore Mio 12/1, Ronaldo Des Mottes, 12/1, Higgys Boy 14/1, Silk Affair 14/1, Mr Thriller 14/1, 18/1 bar

This looks a minefield. I think no bet is the best bet. Ok, Mr Thriller to teeny weeny stakes, 5 places at Bet365, 14/1

5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (2m 110y)

Rite Of Passage 9/2, Sicilian Secret 13/2, Dunguib 7/1, Quinola Des Obeaux 11/1, Quel Esprit 12/1, Shinrock Paddy 14/1, 16/1 bar

Trends: Back Willie Mullins horses. He won 6 out of 12 renewals. You’re looking for a horse (aged 5 or 6) that’s won a bumper with 15 or more runners that won LTO.

Value: I really fancy Shinrock Paddy @ 14/1 (Sportingbet – 4 places), he isn’t a Mullins horse but he’s won a bumper round here, the only one to do so. Dunguib @ 7/1 (betfred, Ladbrokes, Bluesq, Skybet) looks the best of the favourites.

Good luck

I don't think I'll be doing in depth previews for the next 2 days... time will tell

Cheltenham Festival - Day One

2009-03-10T01:52:00.000Z

Tuesday’s Cheltenham Preview

Well, it’s finally here and I haven’t kept my promise of regular tips and post to this blog. But I will be working particularly hard to get everything in over the next 4 days. I will try and pick the winner using both the winner’s trends and my ratings and also pick out some value picks as per usual. First of all we need to remember that horses placed at previous festivals are more likely to be placed again as Cheltenham is one of the most demanding tracks in jumps racing. Horses for courses and all that.

There are plenty of free tipping competitions around to test your prowess or luck:-

http://www.beatvictor.com/

http://www.attheraces.com/cheltenham/

http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/community/news.php?id=725

http://www.selectastable.co.uk/CleverTV/en/tmg/rp-new/15740/clienthome.do

(£5 per stable, 5 for £20)

The roar of the first race is coming, let’s try and break even for the week....

PS Check out the latest odds on oddschecker.com or easyodds.com. Don’t forget that bet365.com, paddypower.com, stanjames.com and williamhill.com all offer guaranteed odds on their websites. (They pay out on the SP if its bigger, so always take the price)

And it’s an earlier start this year, so please don’t tune to Channel 4 at 2pm for the first race.

Happy valuehunting,

1.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (2m 110y)

Cousin Vinny 3/1f, Torpichen 6/1, Kempes 10/1, Go Native 11/1, Micheal Flips 14/1, Red Moloney 14/1, Ainama 14/1, 16/1 bar

The trends for his race suggest that you must have won 50% of your hurdles races and have a distance win to your name. This rules out most of the outsiders (good). Last year Captain Cee Bee beat Binocular up the hill to break 2 big trends as he was a 7 year old coming off a break of more than 75 days. Still 5/6 year olds have won 30 of the last 34 renewals and the Irish have an excellent record in the last 10 years (68 runners, 7 wins, 6 places)

Trends: Cousin Vinny @ 3/1f (Stan James, vcbet) or Kempes @ 12/1 (Coral)

Value: I don’t see any in Cousin Vinny, I reckon something could beat him up but he is the classiest horse in the race. Torpichen would be a very young winner at 4. With the rain forecast tomorrow, ones to be on the right side of is Golan Way @ 33/1 (Stan James, Ladbrokes, vcbet) or Aachen @ 16/1 (general). It could be a race to watch rather than punt on.

2.05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (2m)

Tatenen 4/1f, Calgary Bay 6/1, I’msingingtheblues 9/1, Forpadydeplasterer 9/1, Planet Of Sound 11/1, Kalahari King 14/1, 16/1 bar

The trends insist on an unexposed Novice Chaser (less than 6 Chase starts) aged 5-7, who has finished in the top 2 in all their starts and won over 2m/2m1f. The only horses that fit the profile are Tatenen @ 4/1f and I’msingingtheblues @ 9/1. However Planet Of Sound and Forpadydeplaster have both won over further, which is surely an advantage up the hill and Cheltenham on possibly soft ground. I wouldn’t rule out Kalahari King either, but he is 8.

Trends: Tatenen @ 4/1f (general) or I’msingingtheblues @ 9/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power, vcbet)

Value: If the ground is soft, then this will play into the hands of Tatenen and Forpadydeplasterer. Both would be hard to beat. You can back Forpadydeplasterer @ 15/2 with bet365 in the ‘insure a bet’ 3 place market. (If he’s 2^nd/3^rd you get your stake back). Golden Silver @ 16/1 (general) and Follow The Plan @20/1 (Betfred, Stan James) could be viable each ways on the forecast soft ground.

2.40 William Hill Handicap Trophy Chase (3m 110y)

Wichita Lineman 6/1f, Possol 8/1, Star De Mohaison 10/1, Millenium Royal, 12/1, Patsy Hall 12/1, Cailin Alainn 14/1, 18/1 bar

There’s only been one winning favourite since 1977 (Antonin in 1994), however the horse doesn’t know what price he is, so it’s best sticking to stronger trends. For instance the best age is 7-10, ruling out Possol (6) and carrying less than 11st. Ideally the winner will have won over at least 3 miles and also won a good class Handicap Chase. Hmmm ... That didn’t work too well. We still have 9 in. Well we should be looking for horses in some sort of recent form and with some course form too.

Reveillez won the Jewson Novices’ Chase in 2006. Has raced once in almost 2 years, pulling up in January (heavy) in the race that The Sawyer won. – Avoid on soft going

Simon has had 5 runs around here and has placed just once and hasn’t looked the force of old (F25U4U47) since his last win over 2 years ago – Not good

Nenuphar Collonges - 2 wins from 3 runs here, including in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle last year. Won at Bangor in November. Good good!!

Hot Weld – Winner of the Amateur Rider’s Chase in 2006 and also the Scottish National in 2007. One run in nearly 2 years (pulled up in Feb). Has an outside chance of a place if he’s fit.

Lacdoudal has had 12 runs around here, with 1 win and 2 places. No win for 3 years, but should be plodding on at the end for place chances.

Billyvoddan hasn’t won since 2006 and is completely out of form. Has been placed 3 times in 8 runs at Cheltenham. - Ignore

Oedipe – Unexposed horse, who finished 13^th to Mister McGoldrick in last year’s Racing Post Plate. Won’t want the rain to come.

The Sawyer won at Cheltenham in January over 2m 5f in heavy ground – A positive

Lothian Falcon – Pretty consistent, probably needed the run in January. Has a 100% record around here.

Trends: Nenuphar Collonges @ 18/1 (bet365, vcbet), The Sawyer @ 40/1 (bet365, vcbet, Ladbrokes or Lothian Falcon @ 20/1 (sportingodds, totesport)

Value: The two I’m interested in are actually trend horses . Nenuphar Collonges @ 18/1 and The Sawyer @ 40/1

3.20 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (2m 110y)

Binocular 15/8f, Celestial Halo 9/1, Osana 11/1, Crack Away Jack 14/1, Katchit 14/1, Whiteoak 16/1, 20/1 bar

Trends: The ideal profile for this race is a horse with at least 9 outings over hurdles that has won LTO, has finished in the top 2 at a previous Festival, and won a Grade 1 Hurdle or Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle. Also horses over 8 have only won 3 times in over 50 years. The 3 horses that are left are Katchit @ 14/1 (general), Osana @ 11/1 (Betfred) and Whiteoak @ 16/1 (general). The last 10 winners had also run withing 52 day,s which is a negative on Katchit (80).

Value: None in Binocular, and he may well win, but that nagging doubt about the Cheltenham hill and this large field offers little value and there’s plenty of e/w thievery on offer. Namely in Celestial Halo, Osana and Katchit. And if the girls want to support the girls, I can’t put you off Whiteoak either.

4.00 Glenfarclas Handicap (Cross Country Chase) (3m 7f)

L’Ami 9/4f, Garde Chametre 4/1, Dix Villez 7/1, Wonderkid 10/1, Drombeag 14/1, A New Story 16/1, 20/1 bar

Trends: Not much as this has only been going for 4 years. If you want to follow the limited trends, then you can only really pick from L’Ami @ 9/4f (Paddy Power, Stan James, Ladbrokes, William Hill) or Garde Champetre @ 4/1 (Betfred). The two other selections with a sniff are Dix Villez @ 8/1 (PaddyPower) and Drombeag @ 12/1 (general).

Value: The value not surprisingly lies with Drombeag and he is nicely weighted with 10-7. Puntal @ 28/1 (Skybet) may sneak a place.

4.40 David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle (2m 4f)

Quevega 5/2f, United 4/1, Chomba Womba 15/2, Give It Time 10/1, Oscar Rebel 12/1, Caroles Legacy 16/1, 22/1 bar

Trends: The first running of this was last year, with Whiteoak (Champion Hurdle) outstaying Refinement up the hill.

Value: It will probably pay to side with United @ 4/1 (general), with her experience of Cheltenham and the softening conditions. Quevega @ 5/2f (general) is a good horse, but I don’t know what she’s actually beaten so far. Experienced campaigner Chomba Womba @ 15/2 (Paddy Power) should be there abouts. Gaspara @ 22/1 (Bet365, Stan James) could bring about a place for her efforts. 2 others for consideration at longer odds are Dansimar @ 22/1 (Bet365, SJ) and Sweetheart @ 28/1 (Bet365, vcbet).

Hopefully you’ll have broken even on the day. See you tomorrow

Get On!!

2009-01-19T10:30:00.000Z

Its always typical that winners turn up when I'm out and about. Last week was a good one for me and a very quiet one for you.

Hopefully I've found a big priced winner today.

Hereford 2.50
Nadover (16/1, Ladbrokes, Bluesq, Skybet, Totesport) is back over hurdles today and looks to have a great chance if taking to the smaller obstacles for the first time in 9 months. Another big price that may sneak the frame is Maktu (16/1 Hills, Lads, Spbet, skybet) however I'm more than happy to select Nadover here.

Wolverhampton 4.00
Direct Debit (12/1, Boylesports) looks far to big a price, and should be able to get a place at the least. Strabinos King (11/4f) was gambled on last week before finishing 3rd and is rated the most likely winner.

Enjoy... I'm off for some lunch..

Happy New Year

2008-12-29T10:30:00.000Z

Hope you all had a good Christmas... Now lets nail the bookies in 2009. Well Vegas was a bit up and down. The poker was excellent and the rest of the gambling was poor, but a great time was enjoyed by all regardless of the losses. I must give up the stupid games.. So no more Roulette, Pai Gow, 3 card poker or machines. Think I'll play some cash next time :-)

Looks a good couple of jumping cards today.

Newbury
2.10 Looks a race between Dave's Dream (4/5f) and China Gold (4/1). Both should improve for this. Now you know I don't bet shorter than 3/1 in general, so I think China Gold holds the value in this. This will be Dave's Dream's hardest test so far and I couldn't back him at odds on.
China Gold is overpriced.

2.45 A big race for Diamond Harry (8/11f). Massasoit (11/4, bluesq) will give him his biggest test so far. A race to watch methinks.

3.15 Royal Kicks was 12/1 with Paddy Power an hour ago, but I missed that and had to settle for 10/1. Being backed this morning and only Ladbrokes and Boylesports have him at 10/1. Think he will start 6/1ish. Suzy Smith seems to have found the answer and is well worth backing at this price.

3.50 I don't usually do bumpers, but Fabian The Fox is 25/1 with sportingbet, which is one of the most ridiculous prices of the year. Didn't do badly on debut and is 8/1 with bet365. Get on for a sporting e/w or back to lay bet.

Musselburgh
12.45 I fancy Seize (4/1) to bounce back from an average start to the season. Will relish the ground and is decent value in my book. Greenock is 25/1 and shouldn't be. I've had a small interest on its price.

2.55 Categorical (3/1f) looks to have a good chance here. The 100/30 has gone now and this is on the edge of value for me.

3.30 Kyber (7/2jf) needs to shake off Bolodenka (7/2jf) to gain a deserved win. Pretty impressive first hurdle start for nearly 2 years after a flat campaign. The winner Viper looks useful.

Thats it.. Nail sportingbet on Fabian The Fox please.

11.13 update: Fabian is 16/1 with sportingbet..... still overpriced, silly fools

48 hours to go....

2008-11-27T10:09:00.000Z

Newbury
12.25 Cornelia (20/1, PP, SJ) looks fairly decent. May struggle to overcome the favourite Over Sixty, but a place is up for grabs. Up in grade after a confidence boosting win over 2m (at tough Towcester). This is back up to 2m 5f on a flatter track, where she can place. *Update - price changed, now BP 16/1 with Skybet, sportingbet and Ladbrokes*

1.30 Sovereign Spirit (18/1, sportingbet) Best efforts at Fontwell, but again, take out the fav, Parlesotho and he'd have a chance. Again up in class, but wants 2m 5f and probably further later in the season.

A few other bets at decent win odds today are.

Newbury 3.15 Kerrys Girl (9/2, general) Up in class today, but steady improvement and I'll take a chance at a nice price.

Taunton 2.15 Sassanias (10/1, bet365, boylesports, skybet, 7 run) Not saying he'll win, but 10/1 is an awfully big price if you want to take on The Nightingale (1/6f).

Uttoxeter 3.05 Flemon Loon (11/2, sportingbet, skybet) Though his Sedgefield run LTO was pretty impressive and a run up to that standard again will do the business.

Uttoxeter 3.35 Bleu Run (9/2, general) New connections might have found him a decent race here. Impressive 4th LTO. Luccombe Bay may have the wins, but don't think they were against much.

Toodle pip, won't be a blog for the Hennessey on saturday. Will be quiet for the next 2 weeks, I'd imagine ;-)

Who want's to be a Multi-Millionaire?

2008-11-22T08:27:00.000Z

The Scoop 6 rolls over again. Surely worth £2 of anyone's money to win £3m. I'll have a few pounds on it but won't go mad. The 6 races are

2.10 Lingfield
2.40 Lingfield
2.45 Haydock
3.20 Lingfield
3.30 Huntingdon
3.50 Lingfield

2.10 Lingfield
This doesn't look too bad to me, I've narrowed it down to 4 here :-) . Atlantic Star (9/2f), Beat The Bell (8/1), Swift Gift (9/1) and Ebraam (9/1). Markab looks to take them along but don't think he's good enough. My Gacho won this week, but isn't one to rely on. A big outsider is course specialist Fajr (28/1, Hills), who's won 7 of his 11 races around here.

2.40 Lingfield
A little bit tougher here. Only half a dozen here. I really think Secret Night (7/1) is pretty strong here. Jennie Jerome (6/1f) has a chance, but I think I'll leave that one out as she's only won 1 in 7 and makes her AW debut today. Everything else in single figures has a chance here and it's worth your while sticking to the front of the market.

2.45 Haydock
If Osako D'airy (4/1f) doesn't win, a few tickets will be torn up. He has a pretty decent chance but there are a few horses to threaten him. The Morning Line raving about Possol, but he steps up to 3m for the first time. Glasker Mill (9/1) and I Hear Thunder (14/1) look overpriced to me and should be up there. 2 horses who haven't hit the heights of a couple of years ago are Mon Mome (25/1) and Naunton Brook (16/1). Both shouldn't win, but can do if they fancy it.

3.20 Lingfield
I like the look of Bronze Cannon (5/1jf), who looked a class act 6 months ago. Need to refind it here. It's a pricewise horse, so It will probably be best if it didn't win. We don't want the £2 RP readers to still be in after 4 legs. Baharah (5/1jf) and Re Barolo (13/2) come next and have good chances. Harvest Queen (11/1) and Adjar (14/1) are the best of the outsiders.

3.30 Huntingdon
This is the acid test. I'll stick to which ones can't win. Er.... um.... none of them. They all have a chance.... arse. I won't put you off. The only horse above 16/1 that I would consider putting in is, Lowe Go (25/1). This should go to one of the top 9 in the betting .... hehe

3.50 Lingfield
A little easier if you are still in. Just Chief Editor (9/2) and Prohibit (5/1) for me. Will be opposing Ceremonial Jade (100/30f). Barry Dennis agrees with me and that's all I needed to know.

I'll add any other non-Scoop 6 fancies later on this morning if there are any.

Football
The footie did ok last week. Nice win for the Villa @ 7/1. Hope you were on. Carlsile, Derby and Darlo all won. Of course Spurs decided to play crap and Blackburn couldn't hold onto their Ht lead.

This week there is very little about. Man City (23/10, Hills) play Arsenal (11/8, VC, PP) and both teams offer value.

Backing Preston again. They are 10/11 (Betfred, Skybet) at home to Barnsley. After throwing away a 2 goal lead away at home to Southampton and busting all my trebles, I'm giving them 1 more chance.

Hereford (6/4, Skybet, PP, Coral, Lads) can beat Northampton. It's risky, but Hereford aren't that bad. Although Northampton are a tricky side to play against.

Scunthorpe (6/4, Skybet) are playing Leicester at home. Top of the table clash. Scunthorpe are a good side and Leicester are wobbling..... Get on..

A Skybet risky treble looks on the cards.

I had to double-take while going through the NFL handicaps. Miami are a 1pt favourite against the Patriots. Now the Fins are my team, and we all know Brady is out for the season, however surely the Pats should still be favs. Oh well, I've had a small interest. My Titans bet is looking good. 10/1 with extrabet to win the division, they host the Jets in a tough game this week. Hoping to close that one soon.

2 Mill up for grabs....

2008-11-15T09:22:00.001Z

No time to talk today..... have some footie value in these 5..

Spurs @ Fulham @ 5/4
Blackburn vs Sunderland @ 11/10
Derby vs Sheff Wed @ evs
Carlisle vs Brighton @ 6/4
Darlington vs Lincoln @ 10/11

Also Aston Villa are 7/1 @ Skybet to win at Arsenal. Suddenly Arsenal are a great team again, I don't think so, they still have the same soft underbelly and Villa are solid with some decent players. Far too big.

The 6 Scoop 6 races are

Cheltenham 2.00
Cheltenham 2.35
Wetherby 2.55
Cheltenham 3.10
Wetherby 3.25
Cheltenham 3.45

2.00 Cheltenham
Looks like you'll need to chose from, Halcon Generlardais, Joe Lively, Parsons Legacy, Comply Or Die and Flintoff. Joe Lively for me

2.35 Cheltenham
19 of last 25 winner have come from first 4 in the betting. So at the moment, you are looking at Silverburn, Barbers Shop, Imperial Commander and Bible Lord. Don't rule out Ouzbeck and Ashley Brook and Private Be are lively outsiders.

2.55 Wetherby
Rakalackey and Gold Heart look strong. Outsiders, Super Road Train, Trisons Star and Morgan Be could shock.

3.10 Cheltenham
I really fancy Copsale Lad (20/1, skybet) to cause an upset. Reckon there could be a big old winner in this race.

3.25 Wetherby
Knockavilla, Pay Attention, Heavenly Chorus or Good Spirit.

3.45 Cheltenham
Sunnyhillboy, Hernando Royal, Keki Buku or Oldrik.

Laters,
VH

Oh what a wonderful morning

2008-11-01T08:45:00.000Z

Yes, its here, real racing starts today.

A quick word on the last blog... Please ignore any 'value' laying Chelsea, they are obviously far too good for most teams.... Thanks...

Stimulation won, Shaweel did not, 4th every time I back him unfortunately.

Ascot
1.35 The first of the Scoop 6 races. I think Ladbrokes are out of line with their 7/1 quote about Blue Bajan. Definitely overpriced. The market probably has it spot on with Font (7/2) and The Polomoche (11/2). A horse I follow, Leslingtaylor is 14/1 for this but is best watched on this occasion. Blue Bajan has it all in his favour today at a nice price. Nail the Magic Sign for their foolishness.

1.35 The horse to look at here is Air Force One (3/1f), who should be one for your Ten To Follow lists. A nice horse who's jumping has improved every race. I'll have my beady eye on Abragante (5/1) too as he was a decent chaser last season. 2 horses is this that have an interesting past are Charlie's Future (20/1) & Out The Black (22/1). Check out the finish to their race at Exeter 2 years ago.

http://www.attheraces.com/form.aspx?raceid=123751&meetingid=&date=2006-10-31&ref=form&refsite=

I was on Doc Row and walked out the betting shop in disgust and missed it... lol

Charlie's Future has the edge in their clashes but is running in a Class 2 for the first time today. Out The Black actually has C&D form, loves the ground, has won in this class before. Could be a big priced outsider to be honest. hmmmmm....

Newmarket
2.10 Looks a good but tough 2yo race on paper. A quick guess from me. Either Burgundy Ice (5/1f) and Rosy Mantle (6/1). Dream In Waiting (25/1, Lads) is a big price and could offer some value.

3.20 Typical big old Scoop 6 handicap. I'm not going to waffle about all the chances. Zero Tolerance (20/1, Skybet) is the 2005 & 2006 winner. Has run pretty decently this season and is my value pick.

3.55 Can Bankable (11/4f, Lads, Sky) end this run... 5 seconds in a row, including a 2nd to Charlie Farnsbarns last time. Actually I think he has things in his favour today and he gets a thumbs up from me.

Wetherby
3.00 Very open race. Can only rule out the 2 outsiders. Petitfour (3/1) and Mobaasher (11/4f) are up and coming staying hurdlers, whilst Lough Derg (8/1) and Faasel (13/2, SJ) are the more wise stayers who haven't quite done the buisiness on a consistent basis. So ideally the 2 youngsters can start a new world order to challenge Inglis Drever for the World Hurdle.

There's very little e/w value floating around today, only a few 8/1 shots, but not big enough to recommend. Kauto Star runs at Down Royal today and the Scoop6 will be well worth winning today. Now for some football.

I earmarked 7 value selections today. I wouldn't put them into anything bigger than trebles.

Burnley vs Norwich (17/20, Betdirect/SJ)
Preston vs Southampton (4/5, general)
Huddersfield vs Crewe (5/6, Coral)
Stockport vs Carlisle (evs), betfred, Hills, PP)
Dag & Red vs Acrrington (4/5, general)
Exeter vs Chester (4/5, PP)
Shrewsbury vs Luton (4/5, bet365, Coral, SJ, Skybet)

have fun

about time too.

2008-10-18T09:16:00.000+01:00

I do have a saturday off and I couldn't get a ticket to Aldershit. There is some excellent racing today though..... so I thought I'd bother to get off my arse and type some words.

Champions Day at Newmarket and a decent card at Cheltenham.

I had a (:bangheadsmile:) moment from yesterday. Note to self, when a horse you love and respect is running, don't ignore it. BACK IT. I'd already won on Charlie Farnsbarns as a 2 year old, at 25/1 and a 66/1 2nd to Authorised. He ran decently last week and he goes and bloody wins yesterday @ 50/1.... Sorry for the pause, I had to wipe a tear from my eye at the lost beer money...

Righto...

Newmarket

2.05

Looks a good start to the day at Newmarket. I will probably go for Stimulation (5/1f) as he has the conditions to suit today and his Major contenders prefer it softer. Major Cadeaux (6/1, sportingbet) is one and last year's winner Al Qasi (14/1) another.

2.35

Now, let's get this nailed before I forget. Back Shaweel (12/1). Nice horse who won if you remember when I missed him. Rip Van Winkle (15/8f) looks opposable, and I will be. Nothing else to say really. Shaweel, Shaweel, Shaweel, Shaweel

3.10

The feature race of the day and it looks to be between 3 horses. New Approach (8/5f, sportingbet) is an obvious favourite, however he isn't my cup of tea with all the shenanigans that come with him. French raiders have an excellent record and the race and Russian Cross (4/1, SJ, tote) comes here in excellent form. Of the others, Pipedreamer (7/1, spbet, Sky, tote) has been running well without winning and looks to have the same fate again. Of the e/w priced runners, Traffic Guard (16/1, sportingbet) looks to be a few points overpriced as he ran New Approach close and can make the frame.

3.50

The Cesarewitch, a cracking race to end the season. The Morning Line tells me to ignore any horses drawn lower than 17. That's fine by me. I fancy Liberate (drawn 24), there's a little 9/1 floating around, but I expect that to go. Asker Tau (5/1) has won his last 5 but is drawn in 14. Bulwark (50/1) is one of those horses who only wins when you don't have the cash down and is drawn in a snug 21. Other drawn high and prominent in the betting are Arc Bleu (9/1 tote) and Gee Dee Nen (10/1). To be honest it's unbelievably open, so I can't dissuade you from backing anything. Last Year's winner is Leg Spinner (25/1), trouble is he's out of form, not greatly drawn and is up 10lbs on last year's win. One more in good form, but is drawn on the wrong side is Hits Only Vic (25/1).In his last 9 runs he's record is 11122211. Worth a punt?

5.35

A little value here if you believe that jockeys make awful tipsters. I do. Frankie is on Veracity (7/2f, Ladbrokes) here. I prefer stablemate Sagara (8/1, sky) at that price.

Cheltenham

3.25 Good race, a few out for the first time, but I don't think we should be worried about that. Patman Du Charmil (7/1) will drag them around and smash them into the ground... probably.

Fier Normand (13/2f, pagebet), can't have him myself. Think he should be watched today.

One horse in form, but has to step up on what he's done in the summer is Alphabetical (14/1). Wouldn't rule out, but should find this a lot tougher than Fontwell Park. Private Be (9/1, betfred) has to prove he can finish races first. Patman for me I think.

Kelso

3.15 One to watch today is Kalahari King. He's 4/5 but did good things at the tail end of the season. Could be one for your Ten To Follow lists if he cruises up today on his chase debut.

Weekend Footie

Middlesbrough looks a big 11/2 to beat Chelsea today. On their day they turn over the big sides regularly and Gareth Southgate's got them moulded into a team that's hard to beat. Chelsea are superb but have so many injuries that you can't stick them onto your bankers section. you can get 18/1 on the Smoggies winning 1-0, & 28/1 on 2-1. Worth a fiver?

Bolton to beat Blackburn @ 6/4 (Hills). Hmm, Bolton are back to their winning ways and Blackburn haven't really fired under Ince. 6/4 looks a big price on that basis. Could boost the old accumulator if it comes in.

Man City @ Newcastle @ 6/4 (Boyle, SJ, Betdirect) on Monday. Can JFK save Newcastle? They haven't scored whilst he's watched them :-) . Could be a 2-2 draw, but Man City look a little bit of value here.

Shrewsbury vs Bournemouth @ 4/5. Well they did lose to Port Vale (13/2) last week, but surely the Shrews ain't gonna let it happen twice. Bournemouth, are decent on their day, but @ 4/5 (sky, Bluesq) hopefully it won't be today.

Right that's it, a bacon sarnie for me...

One bet tonight.

2008-09-17T10:38:00.000+01:00

In the midst of the silly season so I'm wary of putting up too many selections. The 2 on monday ran on towards the end of their races without threatening the commentator. It may be worth following them again next time out. Please remind me lol..

Both my footie bets came in..... which was nice.

Today I may have found a bet. In the Kempton 7.50 runs Best Selection and he is 20/1 with Ladbrokes and 16/1 generally around. Now he's never won... hmmm, but is a nice horse who's been picking up some place money on the all-weather recently. The handicapper has dropped him to his lowest ever rating today after his 4th LTO over what I think was a 'strange' distance for him of 2m 1f . He's back over a mile and a half today and is too big to let pass without a value each way... Here's hoping for an under the radar touch from the Mongan's.

I can't get on..

2008-09-15T11:08:00.000+01:00

I can't get on at Leicester today... Sporting Bet let me have a measly £6.06 ew on Mr Snowballs.. I wouldn't mind if they offered me the rest at reduced odds or moved the price in but its still 33/1 there... ho hum the price of success I suppose.... ps Blue Square have started it too... I thought better of a big firm Mr BS..... anyways

Leicester
2.30 Mr Snowballs is 33/1 with sportingbet. Now this horse is overpriced. I'm loathed to rush into 2 year olds, especially after 2 runs, but there is very little in this race and after a decent debut on soft at Windsor, if he runs to the standard he set there he should make the frame at a nice price.

The Lucky last at Musselburgh is where we go for our 2nd bet of the day. Some 16/1 is on offer from Ladbrokes for Summer Lodge and that should be taken. The RP says its not the most straightforward of horses and its never won on the flat before..... ner ner ner... I don't care about that crap... All I know is it's pretty well overpriced. 2 runs this season and 2 3rds. Ground suits, trip suits and I can't find a negative that says it won't run into a place today.

Betting thoughts from the Value Hunters

Grand National - Horse by Horse

Grand National Trends 2011

Cheltenham Day 1, 2011

Twatter

Part Two

2010-11 Starts here

Waffles for breakfast

Back With A Bang

Aintree -Day Three

Aintree - Day Two

Aintree - Day One

Grand National Trends - Class and all the others

Grand National Trends - Stamina

First Day of the "Flat Season" *boo*

Grand National Trends - Weight and Official Rating

Value bet

Grand National Trends - Age and Experience

Sweating out a hangover

Cheltenham Aftermath

Cheltenham Day Four

Cheltenham Day Three

Cheltenham Day Two

Cheltenham Day One

Back Once Again

Happy New Year

Trying to find a winner

Hennnnnessssey day.

Hello Again... Hello

Nick Pullen

wednesday value

but that's not the point

yowzers

Saturdays quickie

Quick one

RP rant part 1172

Goodwood on thursday

Glorious

Charlie Cool.... tidy

Friday Fun

2 late ones

Still Alive

Hmmmm

Tuesday update

Must do better

A Bet Free Day and Ashes Rants

Just the one

Thank You Racing Post

woot 2

not worth bothering about - grrrr

Woot

I don't Like Mondays

Sunday is a day of rest....

another frustrating day

disappointed

2 good bets for thursday

Wednesday e/w

Monday

Trainers to follow

Thursday's Royal Ascot

No milk today

Wednesday's Royal Ascot

Tuesday's tips

Re-Launch for Royal Ascot

Aintree Day 2

Grand National thoughts

Cheltenham Festival - Day 4

Cheltenham Day 2

Cheltenham Festival - Day One

Get On!!

Happy New Year

48 hours to go....

Who want's to be a Multi-Millionaire?

2 Mill up for grabs....

Oh what a wonderful morning

about time too.

One bet tonight.

I can't get on..

First Day of the "Flat Season" boo