Lord
Windermere 9-11-10 ***
Gold Cup winner in
2014, but disappointed in this year's. Definitely stays a trip, but
unproven over 4 miles and will be lumbering top weight around here.
Many
Clouds 8-11-9 **
Won the Hennessey
well, but would have expected better than 6th in the Gold Cup on soft
ground he prefers. Unproven over 4 miles and has a big weight here.
Although 8-year olds have won many Nationals, the 10 year record is
0-71, so that's a negative at the moment.
Unioniste 7-11-6 **
Decent 3 miler, just
shy of top class. Only 7 (no 7yo has placed in last 10 years, no
winner since WW2). Plenty of weight for such a young horse and off
the track for slightly too long.
Rocky
Creek 9-11-3 ***
Ran really well last
year before running out of puff and finished 5th. Geared all season
to go better this year, however still no win past 3m or place form
over further. Well in at the weights after good Betbright Chase win
last time, but place chance likely at best.
First
Lieutenant 10-11-3 ****
Ticks a lot of boxes
but doesn't really look the type to win this. No win for 2 years and
looks like your typical out of form 3 miler who won't get round.
Balthazar
King 11-11-2 ****
2nd last year where
his prep included the Cheltenham Cross Country (won). This year
they've wrapped him in cotton wool and hasn't run since December. Bad
decision I'm afraid. Does go well 'fresh', but place chance on good
ground at best.
Shutthefrontdoor 8-11-2 **
The likely favourite
in Tony McCoy's last National. Won the Irish National in 2014, but
has plenty of negatives as well. Firstly this 8-year old's only had 6
Chase starts and has been off for 152 days having won his only race
this season.
Pineau De
Re 12-11-0 ****
Last years winner.
Now a 12 year old and higher in the weights. Although he could win,
it's more likely he'll finish just outside the money. Place at best.
Ballycasey 8-10-13 ***
8yo out of form 21/2
miler, with only 9 chase starts. Can't be trusted.
Spring
Heeled 8-10-12 ***
2 runs this year,
beaten quite a way in both. Cheltenham winner last season, but this
8-yo might
find it tough out
there.
Rebel
Rebellion 10-10-12 ****
Yet to win over 3
miles under rules and has 7 runs this season. A flaky 4 star.
Pulled-up!
Dolatulo 8-10-11 ***
Just 8 years old.
Won a 22k chase is a minor blemish, but lack of form at a staying
trip a big concern.
Mon
Parrain 9-10-11 ****
Could be anything,
can't string 2 good runs together. Similar to Dolatulo but
older. Ground will be fine for him.
Carlito
Brigante - NON RUNNER
Night In
Milan 9-10-9 *****
Perfect on the
trends.... Ground is fine. No experience of Aintree fences only worry
and Best RPR of 149 is a tick below what the last 8 winners had
achieved.
Rubi
Light 10-10-9 ****
Basically a 2 &
1/2 miler. Ticks lots of boxes, but shouldn't be winning this.
The Druids
Nephew 8-10-9 ****
Good win at
Cheltenham and has 10lbs in hand here. He is only 8 and a technical
minus 2nd over 3m31/2f
Cause Of
Causes 7-10-9 ****
Good win in the 4
miler at Cheltenham, but form hardly franked in the Irish National.
He's only 8 and is American-bred (although can't be many runners who
were)
Godsmejudge 9-10-8 *****
Ticks all the right
boxes, but not in form at all this season, beaten 100 lengths last 2
starts.
1st and 2nd in last
2 Scottish Nationals, so is well respected if back to old form on
ground he'll love.
Al
Co 10-10-8 *****
Won the Scottish
National last year. Pulled-up over these fences in December, but
primed to run his race after 2 runs over hurdles last time. Denis
O'Regan rides after Jamie Moore broke his leg last week.
Monbeg
Dude 10-10-7 *****
Will stay all day,
but needs softer ground as he's a bit one-paced. Hold-up tactics not
great for a national winner as proved last year in 'a staying-on past
beaten horses' 7th. Likely same again.
Corrin
Wood 8-10-7 **
Just 7 runs over
fences and off for 84 days not ideal. Only an 8yo with just an £11k
win to his name and no staying chase form to his name. Avoid.
The Rainbow
Hunter 11-10-7 ***
Yet to win past 3
miles 1/2f, including failing to get past fence 9 in 2 runs in this.
UK-bred with only 1 run (pulled-up) this season.
Saint
Are 9-10-6 ****
Off for slightly
longer than the last 10 winners, but nothing to worry about, and 3rd
in a 3m31/2f Chase not
the worst negative in the world. 3rd in the Becher Chase and 9th in
this 2 years ago.
Across The
Bay 11-10-6 ****
Very unlucky last
year when carried off the course by a loose horse when going well.
Ran on for 14th in the end, but badly out of form this year.
Tranquil
Sea 13-10-5 **
Veteran 2 & 1/2
miler and has just the 1 run this season. Avoid.
Oscar
Time 14-10-5 *****
Now 14 years old, so
unlikely to improve on his 2 places in this race in 2011 & 2013.
Age his only negative though and won the Becher Chase in December so
still has it, but place chance at very best and more likely 8th or
9th.
Bob
Ford 8-10-4 ****
Would be the lowest
rated winner on RPR for many a year, but has lots of ticks. He's an
8yo with a £21k Chase win to his name, so only minor negatives
there. Ffos Las marathon win flattering as only real finisher (2nd
initially refused and miles behind) Heart says no, head says no,
trends say maybe.
Super
Duty 9-10-4 **
9 chase starts and
no win past 2m5f. Just 2 runs this year and only a £12k win to his
name.
Hard to see him
featuring this year.
Wyck
Hill 11-10-4 *****
Thorough stayer and
certainly not the worst 50/1 shot you will ever see. Only 2 runs this
year and
may just want the
ground softer these days. Don't throw away that sweepstake ticket.
Gas Line
Boy 9-10-4 *****
Stepped up to
marathon trips this season but no Hurdles prep like many winners with
this their main target. Didn't last the Welsh National on bad ground,
so this likelier to suit. has a chance.
Chance Du
Roy 11-10-4 ***
6th last season, and
now a year stronger. Just 2 runs this year a worry and just off too
long
for ideal and 'out
of form' (5th twice not the worst runs you'll see). 6th again seems
about right.
Portrait
King 10-10-3 ****
Just a £21k win to
his name and a chase RPR of 145 would make him the worst rated winner
of the decade. That's all his negatives, but just 1 win in last 3
years.
Owega
Star 8-10-3 **
No win at 3 miles
yet, another bad RPR rating and just a £10k win to his name, and no
form over a trip. No chance.
River
Choice 12-10-3 **
Very similar
failings to Owega Star. Its a no from me.
Court By
Surprise 10-10-3 ***
Off for 154 days,
with just 2 runs this season and rated 145 on RPR. Ground a plus for
him though.
Alvarado 10-10-3 ***
Stayed on for 4th
after being held-up last year. Think he needs to be 'up there' to
win. Obviously targeting this race, but just 1 run this season a
major negative and still the same minor negatives (£28k win, form
not 'great', not top 3 in 3m4f race).
Soll 10-10-2 ***
Only 2 runs since
August (did run in France in May). No decent form in marathons,
UK-Bred and just an £18k win to his name are his negatives, but in
good form with ground that will suit and 7lbs well in with the
handicapper. Better than his 3 stars suggests. Place chance.
Ely
Brown 10-10-2 ***
Tough to see him
troubling the business end of the race. Just 4 starts over fences, 1
run this season
(pulled-up 70 days
ago), no form at a rip and just an £18k win to his name.
Royale
Knight 9-10-2 ****
Trainer won this
last year. Would be the worst rated winner for many a year B.RPR 140
and UK-bred with just a £16k win to his name. Could run well, but
not good enough to win. Ground will be fine.
CONCLUSION
Of the 2 perfect
horses, NIGHT IN MILAN (33/1) will also like the ground,
whereas Monbeg Dude would prefer a bit more cut and is likely
to be held-up whih isn't ideal.
AL CO (33/1)
is basically perfect, French-breds (once a negative) have won 3 of
the last 6 after none in 100 years before 2009.
GODSMEJUDGE
(20/1) out of form, but goes well this time of year on this sort of
ground and has to be considered although 20/1 is about right for him.
GAS LINE BOY
(66/1) is one at a price who could go well for a place.
Good luck and don't
forget to take a price on your selections.