Ladbrokes Irish Grand National (Handicap Chase) – 3m 5f - Grade A

Lion Na Bearnai causes a shock last year. This year he may cause one in the English version.

Overview:

I almost picked the 33/1 winner last year, Lion Na Bearnai, but found others too strong to select him, but he did get a mention. The trends are strong and the going heavy, so we are going to want a thorough stayer to win this renewal.

10-Year Trends:

10/10 Carried 10-12 or less.

10/10 Officially Rated between 121 and 136.

10/10 Had run between 6 and 13 times over fences.

10/10 Had achieved a RPR of 134 or more over fences.

10/10 Had won a race going Right Handed.

9/10 Had won a Chase over at least 2m 5f.

9/10 Had raced in a Chase over 3 miles or more.

9/10 Had run within the last 51 days.

9/10 Were aged between 7 and 10 years old.

8/10 Had raced in a handicap worth £42,000 or more.

8/10 Had finished in the top 3 in one of his last 4 starts.

Contenders:

Junior 25/1 **** Carries too much weight, in fact he gives the field upwards of 13lbs.

You Must Know Me 20/1 ** Is rated too highly, but that doesn't matter with Junior in the field. But he only has 3 runs under his belt and hasn't won over 2m 5f yet. His time may come later in his career.

Magnanimity 12/1 *** Promising Novice who's lost his way in the last couple of years. Not proven this far and is overlooked.

Sweeney Tunes 12/1 *** Not sure I want an inexperienced horse who hasn't run as far as 3 miles before, certainly not one as short as this.

Competitive Edge 20/1 ** He's a 6yo, with no form over the longer distances and is passed over for this.

Cootamundra 25/1 *** Another without a win past 21 furlongs, hasn't won right-handed over fences, and there are better horses out there.

He'llberemembered 25/1 *** He hasn't run over 3m before, nor in a big handicap. May run a good race, but I think there are better options.

Home Farm 14/1 ** Bit too young and inexperienced and has yet to encounter anything as tough as this so far.

Jacksonlady 25/1 ** Inexperienced without any form at a distance. He's ignored even with Geraghty on board.

Muirhead 33/1 ***** He passes all the trends (a little too highly rated), but doesn't seem to be the horse over fences that he was over hurdles. I think he'll find it tough on the ground.

Whodoyouthink 40/1 ***** finished 7^th in this last year, fading on the home run. Almost perfect trendswise, but another that might find it tough on the ground.

Rich Revival 8/1f **** Great start to his chasing career, with 3 wins from 3. Will love the ground. His inexperience (and thus no big handicap experience) may count against him. He's no value at the price but is an interesting horse for next season.

Marasonnien 10/1 ** Ruby Walsh's ride, but there are a few holes in his profile. Consistent, but has never won a chase. I find it difficult to see him starting here.

Away We Go 33/1 ***** Hits all the trends, but I can't have him. Campaigned exclusively over hurdles this season and not great on the ground. He's won over 2m6f, but doesn't seem one for a longer trip.

Romanesco 12/1 ***** 15 Chase starts is irrelevant in terms of experience. I do worry that he had a hard race at Cheltenham (3^rd in Kim Muir) and although he's won on heavy, that was over a lot shorter.

Cross Appeal 33/1 **** Pulled-Up in this last season, not seen since the turn of the year. I don't like form of PP0 either. He has form on heavy and won the Paddy Power Cup last season so has a chance on old form.

Jadanli 33/1 **** His main negatives are that he's 11 and is a little exposed. He was 9^th at Cheltenham (JLT) and has less than 3 weeks to recover. Doesn't mind the ground and has a chance.

Questions Answered 25/1 **** No win past 2m5f and off the track a little longer than ideal. I'm not sure the ground is in his favour either.

Blazing Beacon 28/1 ** Too old, and not a 3m horse.

Panther Claw 14/1 ***** Has a penalty for his win 2 weeks ago, but hits all the trends. The ground is fine and looks the likeliest winner as long as his last run hasn't taken it out of him. Jadanli beat him in January so he should be in the mix too.

Start Me Up 33/1 *** Pulled-up last year, fails a couple of mini-trends (not won a RH Chase yet nor ran since 9^th Jan. The ground is a big worry and he's out of form because of it.

Carlingford Lough 14/1 * No idea why he's 14/1. He is, trends-wise, the worst horse in the race.

Imperial Shabra 66/1 *** Thoroughly exposed, he's done nothing recently and is easily opposed especially on ground he's never won on.

Liberty Counsel 40/1 **** Hasn't achieved anything so far and looks outclassed.

13^th in the Kim Muir, he'd prefer better ground.

Rapidolyte De Ladalka 25/1 ** Hasn't beaten much as is readily opposed.

Carloswayback 40/1 **** Achieved nothing of note out of Novice company. Would be a major surprise if he was good enough.

Goonyella 14/1 ** Former point-to-pointer, hasn't done anything wrong in his Hunter Chases. Could go well, but 14/1 is short enough for a 6yo.

Our Victoria 33/1 *** All her form is over shorter. Pulled-up here over the distance in December and hasn't been seen since.

Paddy Pub 25/1 **** 4^th last year, has a chance but the ground is a worry.

Place chance at best.

Quietly Fancied 25/1 **** Hasn't won past 2m5f, no win on heavy and blatantly not good enough.

Conclusions:

While a lot of horses a 4-stars about, we have to worry about horses that don't look stayers on the forecast heavy ground. Of the 5 'perfect' horses, 2 have ground worries and 2 have trip worries on the ground. The one that survives is PANTHER CLAW [16/1, Ladbrokes (4pl)] who looks a winner on paper. There are a couple of other horses to look out for. JADANLI [33/1, betvictor (5pl)] beat Panther Claw in January and is better off at the weights, however Panther Claw is up and coming, Jadanli is down and going. Rich Revival is the 8/1 favourite, so he isn't a bet, but is worth watching with next season in mind. Perhaps a cheeky exacta, trifecta is in the offing.

Cheltenham Winners and how they were rated.

Just going to put up the results and what I'd rated each one. To be honest there are only 5-6 1* and 2*s in some races and there are plenty of 4* and 5* in the field, but we can at least remove some of those no hopers from our thoughts.

Champagne Fever (5/1) *****  (no of 5*:4  4*:1  3*:2  2*:1  1*: 3) written as (4/1/2/1/3)
The first 2 were 5 stars (from 4 horses, 3rd was the 4 star)

Simonsig (8/15fav) ***** (2/1/0/0/4)
Obvious pick, lets move on.

Golden Chieftain (28/1) *** (3/2/11/6/2)
A 3* horse wins, but only 5 horses rated bigger. All 4 in the frame were 3*, with 4* Fruity O'Rooney 5th.

Hurricane Fly (13/8fav) ***** (4/1/2/2/0)
Great race and no surprises in behind. 3* Countrywide Flame ran a great race for a 5yo.

Quevega (8/11fav) ***** (2/1/11/3/2)
Easy to pick her out. the runners up were both 3*

Rajdhani Express (16/1) ** (0/2/5/10/3)
I did have a double-take here, but there was a stand out e/w bet which was 3rd. Only 8 runnings meant there was no 5* pick. 1* Ackertac (2nd) caused a shock as I though he had no chance whatsoever.

Only 15 5 stars on the day and 4 winners (from 5 races, no 5* in the last) Would have been Big Shu as well if the Cross Country was run today.

Back In Focus (9/4fav) ***** (5/4/3/2/2) 
1st and 3rd were top-rated. Tofino Bay (2nd) was just rated 3*.

The New One (7/2) **** (4/1/2/1/1)
I did mention that I considered him a 5* horse in all but name, but he wasn't so he isn't. 2 5* in the frame.

Lord Windermere (8/1) **** (1/3/3/3/1)
The 5* was 5yo Unioniste, a weak 5* in my opinion. He was opposable at the price and we found the winner as a 4*. the others in the money were 3*s.

Sprinter Sacre (1/4fav) ***** (2/3/0/2/0)
A 5 star forecast.

Medinas (33/1) **** (6/10/2/4/4)
A tough old handicap and you could have had 16 decent horses to pick the winner from. We didn't, the winner did superbly carrrying a big weight and a big price. We had a 5* e/w 4th. with a 2* and 1* also making the frame. Those 4 all came form the top 11 in the handicap. Maybe time to rethink that trend in the future for this race.

Flaxen Flare (25/1) *** (0/10/11/3/0)
Missed this one. Only 8 years of trends and the first without a Group 1 winning sire and a flat rating less than 85. No 5*s and no 1*s, so a very tight renewal.
We had Caid Du Berlais (a 3 star) who was stronger than that imho and he was the runner up. 3rd and 4th were a 4* and 3*.

Briar Hill (25/1) *** (2/6/9/3/3)
A 25/1 winner by Mullins and Walsh...  how did that one slip through the net. 5* Golantilla was 3rd.
Regal Encore (4*) was runner up.

A mixed bag today. The toughest day in my opinion. 2 5* winners and 3 4*s.

Beneficient (20/1) **** (2/3/3/3/2)
With Dynaste too short and my doubts about Captain Conan staying, we found Beneficient who was just too big in a race with no trends to speak of after just 2 runnings. Those trends can only get stonger for next year. Changing Times (2*) ran on well for 3rd.

Holywell (25/1) **** (5/10/7/1/1)
The trends didn't get rid of too many and there were still 15 horses to consider. Holywell was ignored as he hasn't won at anything near this class before. We opposed Sam Winner (4*), who hadn't won over anything like this trip. We picked up a 5* 2nd. A 4* and 3* made up the rest.

Cue Card (7/2) **** (1/6/1/0/0)
First Lieutenant was the 5*, I didn't fancy him as he hadn't won for 'ages'. We went for Cue Card and it paid off. I actually went for Fon Non Stop (the 3 star) as he would love the ground and was a silly price in a hot renewal.

Solwhit (17/2) **** (3/2/3/2/3)
I didn't actually put this one up (forgot to publish). Luckily enough!!
Solwhit hadn't proven himself over 3m, so was just off the radar. Celestial Halo (2*) and Smad Place (3*) made it not a great race for me.

Carrickboy (50/1) *** (3/5/10/3/2)
These handicaps are tough... 3*  Carrrickboy, a good horse in his day, did the business. He was a little exposed for me and wasn't considered. Our picks were pretty disappointing. The frame was made up of a 3/3/2*'s meant it was back to the drawing board.

Same Difference (16/1) ***** (7/11/4/1/1)
I put him in the write up, but didn't suggest a bet per se, but I had to back him 5 mins before the start. I'm glad I did. Everything passed the trends by the looks of it. 4* Super Duty ran well in 2nd off a big weight.
Alfie Sherrin (5*) and Romanesco (3*) made up the places. The trends held up well, but we did have most of the field, lets move on.

Big Shu (14/1) ***** (1/5/3/4/3)
The stand-out trends pick at 14/1.. The RP trends picked Arabella Boy!!

A great day, probably my best yet.  The trends held up well, but they are only a guide. If we dip under the surface and delve a little more we can find winners at big prices.

Our Conor (4/1) **** (2/4/3/4/4)
Only a 4* horse, but had form on the newly softened ground. Our e/w pick was matched on form and finished 4th (Stan James paid 4 places). The runner-up Far West was a 5* pick. 2* Sametegal ran on for 3rd. He wasn't the big priced 3rd I had hoped.

Ted Veale (10/1) ***** (5/11/9/3/0)
Didn't back him, but said he'd win if the rain came. Then I forgot I'd said it and my horses came nowhere.
Again the handicap had a lot of trends matched. The placed horses were 4/4/4 stars, but that is not suprising.

At Fishers Cross (11/8fav) ***** (3/0/0/2/8)
Obvious pick, especially when the rain came. 5* Inish Island was 3rd but with the non-runners was no each way price in the end. Our Vinny fell. The trends were excellent here ruling out the no-hopers. African Gold was a 2*.

Bobs Worth (11/4fav) **** (2/3/3/1/0)
There were holes in everyone's trends. Some stronger than others. We went for Bobs Worth even with only 1 seasonal run, just 5 Chases and a missed prep run. We were right and after looking beat, he stayed on really well and looks special. He now as won all 5 of his Cheltenham races. 5* Silviniaco Conti fell when going well. 5* Long Run was 3rd and looks like he won't be beating Bobs Worth again. 4* Sir Des Champs ran well and the trends were pretty good here.

Salsify (2/1fav) ***** (8/9/3/3/0)
A lucky winner. Last years 3rd Oscar Delta (4*) would have won 999 out of 1000 of those over the last. A hard race to rule many out of. My pick ran ok but blew up a few out. Class horses are the way forward here methinks. Chapoturgeon still hasn't won a 3m race, and is still going to be opposed. All 3 places were occupied by 5-star horses.

Salubrious (16/1) **** (6/6/6/5/1)
Only 4 renewals, so trends are untrustworthy. Salubrious (4*) was a little high in the weights for me, but still a good winner. Places were made up of 2/4/5 stars. The money came for Make Your Mark who was the 5 star place. 14/1 -> 8/1. Another year and we can strengthen the limited trends.

Alderwood (3/1fav) ***** (4/7/12/1/0)
6/1 at the start of the day, this previous festival winner was the likeliest non-Henderson winner. We didn't get into the frame with the picks but did suggest 2nd placed Kid Cassidy (12/1 in the end was 9/1). The places contained 3 3* horses, so we could have done better.

No big winners on the last day personally, but you could have got a few favs in.

By my calculations we had the following split of ratings
***** 87 runners, 12 winners (13.79%)
  **** 128 runners, 10 winners (7.81%)
    *** 128 runners, 4 winners (3.13%)
      ** 73 runners, 1 winner (1.37%)  - race had only 8 years of trends as well
        * 50 runners, 0 winners (0%)

Happy with that. Don't rely just on trends, but they are are useful tool to rule out no-hopers and take on false favourites.

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase – Grade 3 – 2m 1/2f

The 3rd winner from last friday's festival who isn't with us any more, Bellvano (left)

Overview

This may end up turning into the Nicky Henderson benefit in the race named after his father. Last year he had the winner and 2 places (if I recall). He kept French Opera as top weight in the race to keep his at the bottom/middle of the handicap. Same again this year. He runs 3 at the top. His 3 lower down are Kid Cassidy, Tetlami and Anquetta. Keep an eye out for those.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had won over 2 miles 1 furlong.

9/10 Had raced less than 13 times over fences.

9/10 Carried less than 10-11.

9/10 Were aged between 5 and 9 years old.

8/10 Were officially rated between 129 and 138.

8/10 Had raced at a previous festival.

Additionally

13 of the last 14 winners had raced less than 13 times over fences.

12 of the last 13 winners were aged 10 or more.

9 of the last 12 winners were rated between 129 and 134.

Only 1 winner had been off the course for 46 days or more since 1990

No winner rated over 145 since 1992.

Main Contenders– 10 year trends winner averaged 3.8 stars

Tetlami 18/1 *****Ok form. Nothing great in big fields, but he's a Henderson horse and has to be respected. Trendwise he's pretty perfect.

 

Alderwood 11/2f ***** Won the County Hurdle last year. Worthy favourite and I expect him to be there or there abouts. 

Anquetta 18/1 ***** Mainly perfect on the trends. Placed in this last year and a Nicky Henderson runner.

Gus Macrae 50/1 ***** Always gives his all, but does hit a flat spot in running. You will get a run for your money.

Conclusions

Alderwood (11/2fav) looks a decent favourite, and may give Tony McCoy his only winner at the festival. One for the placepot. The 2 Henderson horses that are 5 stars are worth a second look. ANQUETTA (18/1) was 4^th last year and must have a serious chance in this. TETLAMI (18/1) is his other runner with a good profile. Gus MacRae (50/1) won't let you down at a big price. As for Kid Cassidy (9/1), I don't want a horse off for 4 months, so he is ignored (at my peril probably).

 

Its been a pleasure to write all this, I wish I had the time to do more. Hopefully I can do Aintree as well. We had a great day yesterday let's not give it back today.

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle – Class 2 - 2m 41/2f

Its Attaglance!

Overview

Just 4 years to go on. Typically I'll just concentrate what a typical winner might look like. Small stakes advised.

4-Year Trends

4/4 Were aged either 5 or 6.

4/4 Were rated between 133 and 139.

4/4 had achieved an RPR of at least 126.

4/4 had less than 14 hurdles starts.

Additionally

14 of the 16 placed horses were 2^nd season hurdlers.

Contenders

Edeymi 8/1 ***** In and out recently. Not a great price for one of them.

Toner D'Oudaries 10/1 ***** Well beaten by some decent horses, has an each way chance, but is no price

Bridgets Pet 33/1 ***** Pricewise. 33/1 in to 16/1. Shame, but still a decent price. Would love some rain.

Ma Filleule 10/1 ***** Another to have been backed. Beat Swincombe Flame (3^rd in Mares race) so the form is working out well but wants it softer than it is in the morning.

Constant Contact 28/1 ***** Ok form, but never runs well in big fields. Have to leave him alone on that fact.

Make Your Mark 14/1 ***** No shame in losing to Boston Bob and Simonsig last season but just the one run this year is a big concern.

Conclusions

Gevrey Chambertin (6/1fav) looks like he'll be a good horse, not sure he wanted to be in this as top weight (well 11-06 with claimer) but its not that bad as bottom weight will be10-08 or so. I'll take a watching brief and plump for BRIDGETS PET (16/1) and MA FILLEULE (10/1) to small stakes.

CGA Foxhunter Steeple Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders) – Class 2 - 3m 21/2f

 Chapoturgeon, Oscar Delta and Salsify battle out last year's race

Overview

The Amateur Rider's Gold Cup, the trends aren't strong, but there is an obvious favourite this year and he can follow up last years win.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had won over 3 miles or more.

9/10 Had achieved a rating of 130+ over fences.

9/10 Were aged between 6 and 10.

8/10 Had an adjusted RPR of at least 125.

7/10 Had run within the last 35 days. 12-35 in fact.

7/10 Won last time out.

Additionally

18 of the last 19 winners had won under rules.

20 of the last 22 winners were aged 10 or less.

22 of the last 27 winners had won last time.

21 of the last 24 winners started their career in Point to Points or Hunter Chases.

7 of the last 8 winners were aged 7-9 years old. [Baby Run 10yo]

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.0 stars

Backstage 16/1 **** Aged 11 now, and best years in the past, but passes the other trends.

Chapoturgeon 9/2 **** 2^nd last year, but still no win at 3 miles or more.

Cottage Oak 10/1 ***** Perfect. Big player here.

Creevytennant 28/1 ***** Perfect too, off for 40 days not a bother, but his win last month was his best and only scraped an RPR of 130.

Dante's Storm 20/1 **** He's an 11yo, but that's his only blemish.

Divine Intavention 40/1 ***** Fell last time against Salsify. I don't like horses that fall.

Earth Dream 40/1 ***** Doesn't look to have the class to win this (beaten 55 lengths by Salsify last time it ran under rules last summer) but perfect on the trends. Hmmm.

Galant Nuit 25/1 ***** Just point to points in the last few years. So no form to really go on.

Hoopy 40/1 **** His age is the main stumbling block and his wins haven't been at a good standard RPR-wise.

Louis Pasteur 150/1 **** Won a point to point a while ago and was pulled up last time. Not good enough really, but passes a lot of the trends.

Merchant Royal 66/1 **** Not in the race when pulling up last time in feb. Difficult to find a reason to support him.

Oscar Delta 33/1 **** 11^th in the feb race that Salsify won. 3rd last year. Needs to improve.

Radetsky March 28/1 ***** Wins or pulls up. Wins in much lower classes, pulls up in bigger races. Adjusted RPR isn't good enough.

Salsify 11/4f ***** Short price, but last years winner and perfect on the trends.

That's Rhythm 18/1 **** 2^nd to Salsify, made a few mistakes too. He's 13 is now Earthmover. Place claims.

Tricky Trickster 12/1 ***** Classy horse. Grade 2 winner in 2010. Decent chance if he wants it.

What A Laugh 33/1 **** Not reeally good enough to get involved.

Conclusions

With the trends so weak, it' will probably pay to stick at the top of the market. SALSIFY (11/4fav) is the obvious pick. He too short to back (for me). Each way picks are TRICKY TRICKSTER (12/1) and DANTE'S STORM (20/1). Cottage Oak is best price 10/1, a little short but I won't put you off. 4 places paid at bet365.com (and lesser bookmakers).

Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup – Grade 1 – 3m 21/2f

The late Synchronised wins last years renewal

Overview

What a race in prospect, the new guard are here. The old guard, 8 year old, Long Run faces 3 outstanding young things. There trends are very strong, but all of the protagonists have holes in theirs.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had raced between 2 and 5 times that season.

10/10 Had a Grade 1 Chase win under their belt.

10/10 Were aged between 6 and 9 years old.

9/10 Had recorded a seasonal Graded Chase win.

9/10 Had raced over fences between 6 and 12 times.

9/10 Had achieved an RPR of 171+ in their career.

9/10 Had an adjusted RPR of 175+ for this race.

9/10 Were rated within 7lbs of the RPR top rated

8/10 Had won over 3 miles or more.

8/10 Had been placed at a previous festival

8/10 Had won last time out.

Additionally

21 of the last 22 winners had raced at least twice that season.

22 of the last 25 winners were top 4 last time

17 of the last 19 winners were aged 7 to 9.

The last 13 winners had all won a Grade 1 Chase.

13 of the last 14 winners had won that season.

12 of the last 13 winners had an OR of 166 or more.

11 of the last 12 winners had finished top 2 last time.

12 of the last 15 winners were placed at a previous festival.

9 of the last 12 winners had finished top two at a festival

10 of the last 21 winners were second season chasers.

73 of the last 75 horses beaten in the race, were beaten again. [Kauto Star and See More Business (c/o)

No horse aged 11 or more has won since 1969.

Only 1 horse has won with less than 6 Chase starts since 1963.

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.4 stars

Bobs Worth 3/1f **** Looks the most likely winner. I really don't like him with 1 run (Hennessy Gold Cup in early December) as he missed a prep earlier, and he has only 5 Chase starts. Loves the course and is 4 from 4 here.

Cape Tribulation 16/1 *** Improving every run, stayed on great last time. Needs more, maybe next year. Place claims if the favourites cut their own throats.

Captain Chris 14/1 **** Does he truly stay, does he like right-handed courses. That's why he's 14/1. The extra 2 1/2f might well find him out.

Long Run 5/1 ***** All to prove, if he settles into a good jumping rhythm he can win. He's still the best horse in this on the trends.

Monbeg Dude 66/1 *** Welsh National winner. That takes a lot out of you and I'd leave him alone this season.

Silviniaco Conti 5/1 ***** Called a flat-track bully, and only has 1 run here (Hurdle 3^rd). That's the only small concern.

Sir Des Champs 4/1 **** 2 wins round here, but with First Lieutenant beaten yesterday, is his form any good. Hasn't achieved a good enough RPR of 171 (169). No jockey at the moment. AP McCoy is now available.

The Giant Bolster 16/1 ** Lets be honest, that was a fantastic run last year. I still don't think he can jump or stay. Oh well. Plenty of fails. No Grade 1 win, no 3m win, RPR not good enough. Sorry.

Wayward Prince 100/1 *** Again, no Grade 1 wins, RPR not good enough, blah blah.

Conclusions

I'm going to stick my neck out and say SILVINIACO CONTI (5/1) and BOB'S WORTH (3/1fav). Not original or big prices, just watch and hope the Giant Bolster doesn't prove me wrong.

Albert Bartlett (Spa) Novices' Hurdle – Grade 1 – 3m

The ill-fated Brindisi Breeze and the late Cambell Gillies beat Boston Bob

Overview

The staying hurdle for novices. This is usually taken by one of the market leaders apart from Berties Dream (33/1) – good day that day!!

8-Year Trends

8/8 Had achieved an RPR of 139 or more

8/8 Had raced over hurdles at least 3 times.

8/8 Had finished top 4 in a Graded Hurdle last time.

8/8 Hadn't run for 27 days or more.

7/8 Had won at 2m 5f or more.

7/8 Were aged 6 or 7.

7/8 Had won a Class 1 Hurdle

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.4 stars

At Fishers Cross 5/2f ***** The best horse in the race, turned over The New One earlier in the year. The one to beat.

Inish Island 12/1 ***** I fancied this for a while, but a few other decent horses have been rerouted. Good stuff.

Our Vinnie 10/1 ***** Pricewise has tipped this, the price has already shortened, was 20/1 last night, I advised on twitter to take the 12/1 that was on offer.

Conclusions

These 3 are the only ones that even get near to looking like an Albert Bartlett winner. Everything else is 1 or 2 stars, so I will be most disappointed if anything else wins. At Fishers Cross (5/2av) should win, but I will be on the other two, INISH ISLAND (12/1) and OUR VINNIE (10/1). Good luck.

Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle – Grade 3 – 2m 1f

Alderwood (running today in the Grand Annual) takes the County Hurdle.

Overview

Tough handicap (of course). Plenty of big priced winners recently. But some strong trends to use as well.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had achieved a RPR of 129 or more on a Left-Handed course.

10/10 Had between 4 and 16 hurdle races.

10/10 Had finished in the top 4 in either of their last 2 starts.

10/10 Had at least 4 runs in the season.

9/10 Had carried less than 11-02.

9/10 Were rated between 128 and 140 by the handicapper.

8/10 Had raced within the last 36 days. [Thousand Stars (55), Final Approach (68) – both Mullins trained]

Additionally

17 of the last 19 winners has raced at least 4 times in the season.

16 of the last 19 winners had raced within the last 5 weeks.

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.2 stars

 Hisaabaat 25/1 **** 61 days off and a bit highly rated for a 5yo. Ran superbly over the new course in the Triumph last year though.

Edgardo Sol 25/1 **** High in the weights (Harry Derham takes off 5lbs). Does have an each way chance with a very good course record, 132. Paul Nicholls is having a poor festival.

Clerk's Choice 66/1 **** Had a strange season. Mainly avoiding the heavy ground, so any rain will be a worry. There are better horses out there.

Tennis Cap 14/1 **** Beat Discoteca last time. Slightly high in the ratings, but not a worry.

Tanerko Emery 16/1 **** Great run 6 days ago. Not sure I want a horse that's run so soon but is trained by David Pipe so you never know.

Discoteca 25/1 ***** Gets a good pull at the weights with a claimer on board after a 2^nd to Tennis Cap.

Princeton Plains 14/1 **** Pricewise. 6^Th and 8^th last 2 starts. All 10 winners had a top 4 finish in those races. 7yo's have a record of 1 win from 66 (12 places). Chances, but others better at this, now, shorter price.

Shadow Catcher 25/1 **** No form at all.

Dan Breen 28/1 **** 8yo, (Alderwood won last year), I'd be worried that

It's A Gimme 20/1 **** Not seen for 83 days, that's a worry.

Abbey Lane 28/1 ***** Assumed non-runner, as he was unplaced on Wednesday.

Ifandbutwhynot 11/1 ***** Pretty good in the trends. Has a good chance, any ground is fine. Aged 7 if you want to oppose him.

Manyriverstocross 40/1 **** 8yo with only 1 run in 2 ½ years (10^th in the Betfair Hurdle last month)

Claret Cloak 20/1 **** Every winner has a decent rating Left-Handed. He has not, so is over-looked.

Ted Veale 12/1 ***** All his form is on soft and heavy, but otherwise is pretty good in the trends. Bit short for a soft ground horse.

Kian's Delight 33/1 **** Another that hasn't achieved much Left-Handed. So not for me.

Kings Lad 33/1 ***** Consistent, but pulled up, tailed off, just 6 days ago. Tough to fancy him unless its part of a Tizzard coup.

Conclusions

Cotton Mill (8/1fav) is just too high in the weights for me. I'm on DISCOTECA (25/1). He's got the perfect profile (nearly) and some decent form in the book. IFANANDBUTWHYNOT (12/1, Boylesports), would be a bet for me if I could get on there. Princetown Plains (14/1) is pricewise and too short for me to bet but is an option. Edgardo Sol (25/1) has excellent course form, but Paul Nicholls isn't renown for his handicap coups.

JCB Triumph Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m 1f

Countrywide Flame went on to finish 3rd in the Champion Hurdle 3 days ago

Overview

Not the graveyard for favourites that it once was. Since the introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap to the festival all 7 winners had achieved a RP rating of at least 133. Countrywide Flame was a bit of a shock, but generally the market leaders have held sway.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had raced within the last 55 days.

9/10 Had raced at least 3 times.

9/10 Had won at least 50% of their hurdle races.

9/10 Were from a flat Group 1 sire.

8/10 Had won last time out.

7/10 Had achieved a RPR of at least 133. (the last 7 since the Fred Winter was introduced)

Additionally

18 of the last 22 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles.

16 of the last 19 winners had won last time out.

16 of the last 19 winners had won at least twice over hurdles.

7 of the last 9 winners had made their hurdling début after December 1^st.

Only 1 winner was rated lower than 80 on the flat since 1996.

5 of the last 6 winners (since the introduction of the Fred Winter) came from the first 4 in the betting.

Ireland had won just 1 of the last 14 renewals.

Only 6 Irish horses have been placed in the last 8 years (from 54 runners)

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 3.9 stars (4.1 in last 7 years)

Diakala 14/1 ***** A 5 length beating from Our Conor last time. Still a value price though. If Our Conor wins, he'll be up there.

Far West 5/1 ***** Perfect trendswise (apart from a debut before December).

Hidden Justice 16/1 **** Fits most of the trends, but falls down on the one I want, a previous rating of 133+. Won both starts though, so done nothing wrong and beat a decent horse in Onlyhorsenfoolsies by 15 lengths on debut.

Our Conor 7/2jf **** Beat Diakala. He's the great Irish hope. Doesn't have a Group 1 winning sire.

Rolling Star 7/2jf **** If you are finding holes, he's not from a Group 1 sire.

Somemthersdohavem 66/1 **** Not good enough, hasn't achieved a RP rating of at least 133.

Conclusions

A tough one to call, so I won't. I think only 4 horses can win, therefore I will just say that DIAKALA (14/1) is a value bet, against the 3 market leaders. All have basically run on soft ground or worse, but there isn't much else in the race that's good enough. 2 horses that had disappointing runs last time are Chris Pea Green (***) (40/1) and Swynmor (***) (25/1), they can improve at big prices.

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase) – Class 2 – 3m 11/2f

Sunnyhillboy won this race before unluckily losing the Grand National by a nose

Overview:

The last 2 winners were favourites, but big priced winners are also prevailent.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Were rate within 8lbs of the RPR top rated horse.

10/10 Had run over 3 miles or more last time.

10/10 Had won a Chase.

9/10 Were rated officially between 124 and 140.

9/10 Aged between 7 and 9.

Additionally

15 of the last 19 winners were aged 8 or 9.

The last 12 winners had run over 3 miles or more last time out.

Non-claiming amateurs highest finish in the last 2 renewals was 7^th. From 18 jockeys.

Ireland haven't won this in the last 29 renewals.

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.3 stars

These are the best fit on the trends.

Harry The Viking 20/1 ***** No form this year, but trip is fine. Figures of PP9 and off the track for 100 or so days. A Paul Nicholls horse who will be lookingtowards the Grand National for this runner.

Prince Of Pirates 14/1 ***** Ground will be in his favour, but McCoy usually rides. A strong McManus contender.

Galaxy Rock 14/1 ***** Out and out stayer, on faster ground. Could be outpaced at the end especially as he hasn't been seen since November.

Same Difference 22/1 ***** The Twiston-Davies team are back after a yard virus. This has a chance after runnig well without showing too much.

Alfie Sherrin 10/1 ***** Winner of the JLT 3m Chase last year. Aged 10 and off for 77 days slight negatives, but this is a Jonjo handicapper and his price reflect it.

Chartreux 16/1 ***** Perfect. Big player but shown nothing in 2 festival runs over hurdles.

Relax 25/1 ***** Could be a little exposed with 15 chases, but is consistent and in good form.

Conclusions

Pleny of chances. Super Duty is a little high in the weights for a 6/1 shot, so each way is where I'm looking. I won't put you off Alfie Sherrin (10/1). I won't put up 4 horses, but will settle for 2. RELAX (25/1) and CHARTREUX (16/1). The 2 that missed the cut, but go into the comb-exacta are Prince Of Pirates (14/1) and Same Difference (22/1)

Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase – Grade 3 – 2m 41/2f

Favourite Salut Flo caused a big upset on the trends last season.

Overview

Last years winner, Salut Flo, was bad trendswise, but big priced winners the norm in here. Lets find one.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had won a Class 3 Chase.

10/10 Had won over at least 2m3f.

9/10 Hadn't run in either of that season's Cheltenham Gold Cup Handicaps.

9/10 Had less than 16 Chase starts.

8/10 Had run within the last 41 days.

8/10 Had finished in the top 5 last time.

8/10 Carried less than 10-12.

Additionally

23 of the last 25 winners were rated less than 142.

18 of the last 21 winners had a top 4 finish last time out.

17 of the last 21 winners had raced at a previous festival.

11 of the last 12 winners were at double-figure odds.

Only 1 Irish trained winner since 1951

Only 1 of the last 14 winners had run more than 16 times over fences.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (in November) hasn't won this in the last 19 years.

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.3 stars

Hunt Ball 8/1 ** Top weight. Owner is confident and he won with top weight last year. This is harder and I'll oppose him.

Shoegazer 33/1 **** High OR is his only failing, but 11-1 is fine and is a David Pipe horse.

Ballynagour 9/2f **** Could win this by 10 lengths if the handicapper has it wrong.

Mad Moose 33/1 **** Nothing really wrong with him trends wise.

Cantlow 7/1 **** Good horse, 66 days off is a worry though.

Giorgio Quercus 33/1 **** Again he's been off 104 days and I'll avoid him because of that.

Kapga De Cerisy 14/1 ***** Great on the trends, 1pt up on OR is not relevant. Only win at distance was in a small field on heavy, but this ground isn't a problem

Mister Hyde 66/1 ***** 1^st fence fall in the Racing Plus Trophy. Don't like that, but hits all other trends.

Divers 16/1 ***** Loves the course and 4^th last year, but disappointing this season. This does look perfect for a big run though. Worry is Ferdy Murphy is well out of sorts this season.

Conclusions

Ballynagour (9/2), could be a shoe-in, but I don't take that price in a 24 runner handicap. My 3 against the field at are the 2 5-stars. KAPGA DE CERISY (14/1) and DIVERS (16/1) and SHOEGAZER (33/1).

Ryanair Festival Trophy Chase – Grade 1 – 2m 4f

Riverside Theatre (left) closes down twice winner Albertas Run over the last

Overview:

Only been going for 8 years and is the intermediate jumping race. We have the last 2 winners back again. This is going to be close, very close although probably not as close as last year.

8-Year Trends

8/8 Had achieved a RPR of 158 or more.

8/8 OR of 152 or more.

8/8 Aged 10 or younger.

8/8 Had finished top 2 in one of their last 2 Chase finishes.

7/8 Were top 3 in the market.

7/8 Had less than 5 runs since October.

Additionally

7 of the 8 winners had won at Cheltenham before. 6 runners-up had too.

7 of the 8 winners started at 6/1 or shorter.

4 of the 5 winners since an upgrade to Grade 1 in 2008 had already won a Grade 1 Chase.

4 of the 5 winners since the upgrade had run in the King George VI Chase.

4 of the 5 winners since the upgrade were rated 162+ on official ratings.

4 of the 5 winners since the upgrade were rated 171+ by the Racing Post.

4 of the 5 winners since the upgrade were rated within 3lbs of the RPR top rated.

Contenders – 8 year trends winner averaged 3.8 stars

Albertas Run 12/1 **** Twice winner and placed last year. Off the track for 11 months, and is now 12.

Champion Court 15/2 **** Good this year, slightly inexperienced.

Cue Card 4/1 **** Good horse, and this is his trip. Inexperienced compared to most winners.

First Lieutentant 5/2f ***** He's the only perfect trends horse, but hasn't won for ages.

For Non Stop 16/1 *** Started the season well, but lost his way on bad ground. Can bounce back for this. Only horse in the field without a win at Cheltenham.

Ghizao 33/1 **** Could get in the frame at a price. Finished 3^rd in his last 2 starts.

Menorah 8/1 **** Similarly inexperienced, but has a decent chanc. Jumping has improved this season, but more required.

Riverside Theatre 13/2 **** Last years champ. How he won, nobody knows, but he did. P/U and 6^th in King George in his last 2 stars.

Conclusions:

Difficult to call. Each-way picks Albertas Run (12/1) and For Non Stop (16/1) are an option, but I'm still going to say CUE CARD (4/1) as my pick. First Lieutenant is a strong contender, but 5/2 is plenty short enough.