John
Smith's Grand National Handicap Chase – Grade 2 – 4m 31/2f
Horse
Age-Wgt (st-lbs) Odds Winning Chance
Tidal
Bay 13-11-10 14/1 ***
Would
be a fairytale winner, I remember him winning the Arkle in 2008.
Trouble is he's now 13 and carrying a welter-burden here. However he
was a running on third in the Welsh National, under top weight, in
December, so likely to be out the back early on here and could find
trouble in running. Unseated 3 years ago, but if he weaves past those
fallers, he could be running on again at the end.
Long
Run 9-11-09 16/1 ***
Gold
Cup (2011) and King George (2012) winner but lost his way this season
and looks on the downgrade now. Liable to make a sizeable error or
two as well. Will be carrying a big weight and this is a mile further
than he's ever run before.
Hunt
Ball 9-11-07 66/1 **
A
true 2 ½ miler, who is too high in the weights and hasn't won a good
enough race to justify carrying any money here.
Triolo
D'Alene 7-11-06 20/1 ***
He
won the Topham Chase over these fences last year (2m6f) and then won
the Hennessy this season. He's 7 and too young and carrying too much
weight, but could be a potential winner in the future.
Rocky
Creek 8-11-05 18/1 *
Bridesmaid
this year, losing big races to Triolo D'Alene and The Giant
Bolster. Inexperienced and off the track for 10 weeks, and hasn't won
a big race, is too high in the weights and no form past 3 miles 2 ½
furlongs. Not this year Rocky.
Quito
De La Roque 10-11-01 40/1 ****
Form
is pretty poor and doesn't look a National winner, however he passes
most of the trends but no form over marathon trips.
Colbert
Station 10-11-00 33/1 ***
Unseated
last year, still fairly inexperienced, but 9 runs isn't so bad (cut
off is 10). But looks like 3 miles is his limit and out of form as he
can't jump. Leave alone.
Walkon
9-11-00 50/1 **
Doesn't
look a national horse to me, stamina-wise, but decent 2nd
to Al Ferof in 2012 Hennessy in a bog, suggests that he could
surprise. Pulled up in last years Scottish National, but has form
over these fences and maybe the shorter distance is where he should
be aimed.
Balthazar
King 10-10-13 20/1 *****
Our
first perfect horse, won all 3 cross country races at Cheltenham this
season. The last was just 24 days ago and has this come too soon.
Last year he was 15th without a prep run. Doesn't want the rain.
Wayward
Prince 10-10-13 66/1 ****
Looks
short of class and has no experience of marathon trips, hard to fancy
with no win for 16 months, but passes everything else.
Mr
Moonshine 10-10-12 50/1 ***
Yet
to win over 3 miles or more and doesn't look good enough to win this.
Teaforthree 10-10-12 8/1fav *****
Favourite,
and with a decent weight, should have a big chance. I'm worried that
he didn't last out after the last fence last year and I expect the
same to happen again. Will probably get a place.
Across
The Bay 10-10-11 50/1 *****
He
only fails the lack of a big race win stat (£20k is acceptable).
14th last year but a year older and wiser. Unseated last
time and I don't like that in my national horses. Would love some
rain.
Double
Seven 8-10-11 14/1 ****
A
little young (8yo), but his trainer knows how to win the race
(Numbersixvalverde in 2006). Fits most of the trends but no form past
3 miles is a big worry. Form on soft, but better on good ground.
Battle
Group 9-10-10 50/1 ***
Loves
Aintree (won twice in 3 days at last years festival) and loves good
ground, however doesn't want to race any more and has to be left
alone. No form past 3 miles and off the track since he barely started
in December.
Buckers
Bridge 8-10-10 66/1 ***
No
3 mile win yet or place form at a trip and no racing on better than
good/soft. He's a little young at 8 and hasn't won a big race yet.
Avoid.
Lion
Na Bearnai 12-10-10 33/1 *****
12
year old. Shock winner of the Irish National in 2012 but pulled-up in
the Scottish version last April. Passes everything else and could be
a player in the mud but more miss than hit even when he was younger.
Prince
De Beauchene 11-10-10 20/1 ***
Another
3 miler who is out of form, been off the track for 79 days now.
Monbeg
Dude 9-10-09 12/1 *****
Winner
of the 2012 Welsh National and had some decent results in the last 2
years, but put in his place by Night In Milan in the Grimthorpe Chase
last time. My worry is he's a hold-up horse who doesn't jump great,
so will need to get into a good rhythm early and avoid some fallers
on the way. If he does that he'll be creeping closer and closer by
the 2nd last. Loves any ground.
Big
Shu 9-10-08 25/1 *****
3rd
in the Cross County at Cheltenham (won in 2013). 2 seasonal runs
aren't ideal, but passes everything else. He'll have a new jockey for
this race which isn't ideal. No form on faster ground so rain please.
Burton
Port 10-10-08 20/1 *****
Not
the best 5 star horse that others are, and little experience at
marathon trips. Can't see him placing, but....
Our
Father 8-10-08 66/1 **
An
'8' year old with only 6 Chase starts. He's actually not yet reached
his 8th birthday. Too inexperienced on many counts and
out of form on ground he's unproven on.
Mountainous
9-10-07 40/1 *****
Won
the Welsh National. Not worried about 9 chase starts or that he's
been off for 63 days. Would love the rain to come but difficult for a
horse to win 2 nationals in a season.
The
Rainbow Hunter 10-10-07 33/1 ****
Winner
of the Skybet Chase last time. That was 70 days ago, which is a
little long away. I always thought he'd win a decent staying handicap
but this could be a step too far. Unseated last year after only 8
fences.
Vintage
Star 8-10-07 50/1 ****
Youngster
(not yet 8yo) who hasn't too much experience at a trip although he
was a creditable 6th in the Welsh National. Fell last time
at Cheltenham, and currently has won a valuable chase yet.
Chance
Du Roy 10-10-06 33/1 ****
9th
in last years Topham after a creditable 3rd the year
before, so has experience of these fences. Little experience past 3
miles, but has place chances. Goes on any ground, but you'd imagine the faster the better here.
Hawkes
Point 9-10-06 40/1 ***
Inexperienced
(7 chases) but excellent place in the Welsh National. Hasn't won that
decent Chase yet but all his form in on bottomless ground. How about
next year?
Kruzhlinin
7-10-06 100/1 ***
Too
young for this, no winning experience past 3 miles nor a win at a
decent level. And little experience of big fields. No chance.
Pineau
De Re 11-10-06 20/1 ****
Only
think he really fails is the lack of a big chase win. Has a chance and goes on any ground.
Golan
Way 10-10-05 66/1 ****
Another
monkey, who you couldn't trust with stolen money to actually start,
but has been better this season. Theoretically only 1 run in 16
months (fell after 2, other) and not won at a good enough level yet,
surely he can't win.
Twirling
Magnet 8-10-05 100/1 ****
Hasn't
won at the required level yet and has plenty of time as he's just 8.
Little form past the bare 3 miles either.
Vesper
Bell 8-10-05 66/1 **
Decent
staying form on heavy ground in Ireland, but this almost 8 year old
(born 17th Apr) is a little inexperienced and has been off
the track for 72 days now. No recent form with only finish a poor 9th
last time and no form on ground faster than soft..
.
The
Package 11-10-04 20/1 ****
Just
1 completion in 16 months (good 3rd at Cheltenham).
Unseated 2 years ago, place chance at best here. Cheltenham form franked today with the 1st and 2nd both winning.
Raz
De Maree 9-10-03 50/1 *****
Ran
only 19 days ago. Won a Cork National in 2012, but all form in
testing conditions, difficult to assess and his 3rd last
time was in a crappy 5 runner race, form P0P before that suggest he
may be out classed here.
Rose
Of The Moon 9-10-03 50/1 **
Inexperienced
chaser who hasn't done too much so far. Poor run in the Becher Chase,
here and been off for 74 days now. Not this year.
Shakalakaboomboom 10-10-03 33/1 ***
Great
run 2 years ago, before running out of puff in the home turn. Still
hasn't won that big chase or any decent form over a marathon trip,
and no form at all this year. He's been trained for the race and is 2
years older and wiser this time around or is that 2 years slower. Can't imagine rain will help his cause.
Alvarado
9-10-02 33/1 *****
Can
you forgive the fact that he's been off for 3 months when pulled up?
If you can he has a good chance. Won a good stayers handicap in the
Autumn and has form on all grounds although good would probably be
better.
Last
Time D'Albain 10-10-02 50/1 *
Has
course experience after a 3rd in last years Topham, but
never run past 2m6f before!! Was staying on but difficult to imagine
another 2 miles from him. Fails tons of the trends, and only ran 2
weeks ago. Ignore
One
In A Milan 9-10-02 66/1 **
Inexperienced
chaser with no winning form passed 3 miles basically not good enough
and out of form.
Swing
Bill 13-10-1 80/1 **
An excellent 6th last year, but he's now 13
and he wont be winning this year. Still fails the Valuable chase
stat, and a place at 3 ½ miles and isn't any real form, however was
5th over the fences in the Becher Chase last December.
Conclusions:
This
looks like 2 nationals in one. One set of runners wants the rain to
stay away and the ground to be good/soft (good in places) and the
other set wants plenty of rain and it to be soft to see their true
running, at the moment it is the former so that's where we'll start.
Perfect
Horses:
Teaforthree
(8/1fav) is a worthy favourite,
but is far too short now. I'm a big worried that he won't truly stay
like last year and he'll finish 3rd
or 4th.
Monbeg Dude (12/1) is
a bit in and out and with Zara Phillips schooling him he'll probably
start favourite. My main worry is that he'll have to
negotiate
39 horses to win and that's IF he does jump well, no value in the
price. Balthazar King (20/1)
doesn't want any rain to get into the ground, not too much anyway, he
won well at Chetlenham and as long as that didn't take too much out
of him he should run a good race and a decent price.
Others
to consider:
Across
The Bay (50/1) has a good
chance if it rains (0/10 on G/S or faster), blundered last time but
at 50/1 he's value. Ran well until 4 out last year when blundering
then fading.
Lion
Na Bearnai (33/1) is a little
old for my liking and is more miss than hit nowadays.
Big
Shu (25/1) lacks experience of
the fences, but will get the trip. In good form just behind Balthazar
King, a little rain welcome.
Burton
Port (20/1) doesn't look a true
National horse to me, but he was just short of top quality once.
Mountainous
(40/1) Hard to see him doing 2
Nationals in a season. He needs the rain and is a little
inexperienced, but the Welsh National was a shock too.
Chance
Du Roy (33/1) Won over the
fences in December, this could be a little too far but has a chance
on good ground.
Raz
De Maree (50/1) Badly out of
form, so have to pass on him even if he fits the trends.
Alvarado
(40/1) Off the track a little too long for my liking but will get the
trip on good ground.
Other
thoughts:
I'd love Tidal Bay (14/1) and Long Run
(14/1) to run well, don't think they'll win but stranger things have
happened and these are 2 classy stalwarts. Tidal Bay could
well be running on at the end and doesn't care about the ground.
Long Run could be anything, no form over trip or fences but on
his day was a Gold Cup and King George winner. Hawkes Point (40/1) shouldn't really be considered, but if it was a bog on saturday, he'd love it and he couldn't be ruled out.
Good
(G/S in places) Grand National
BALTHAZAR
KING (20/1)
CHANCE
DU ROY (33/1)
ALVARADO
(40/1, William Hill,
betbright, 33/1 generally available)
Soft
Grand National
ACROSS THE BAY (50/1)
BIG
SHU (25/1)
MOUNTAINOUS
(40/1)
HAWKES POINT (40/1)
The
rain is forecast
from 10am tomorrow
until the evening, so I expect it to be a right old slog
and the soft horses are favoured, however
the write-up is written on the current Good-Soft ground.
So
that's it, I hope we have a good run for our money, lets hope for an
exciting, but safe Grand national and this year I want the forecast
(1st and 3rd last year)
Offers:
www.bet365.com
not only give you a free bet if you get the winner (their 4/1+ tv
offer), but they are giving half your stake back on any each-way bets
(until noon on saturday up to £125 total). This is for existing
customers only.
They
also will be going 5 places. Everyone are 5 places (except totesport,
Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill – 4 places)
www.betvictor.com
(boo!!!) offer 6 places as do Betfred and newbies www.betbright.com.
Totepsort
& Betfred are the same company btw – No I don't get the
disparity either.
Make
sure you take a price on the high street, Paddy Power go 5
places, but their odds aren't as good, swings and roundabouts and all
that.
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