Byrne
Group Plate Handicap Chase – Grade 3 – 2m 41/2f
Favourite Salut Flo caused a big upset on the trends last season.
Overview
Last
years winner, Salut Flo, was bad trendswise, but big priced winners
the norm in here. Lets find one.
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
won a Class 3 Chase.
10/10 Had
won over at least 2m3f.
9/10 Hadn't run in either of that season's Cheltenham
Gold Cup Handicaps.
9/10 Had less than 16 Chase starts.
8/10 Had run within the last 41 days.
8/10 Had finished in the top 5 last time.
8/10 Carried less than 10-12.
Additionally
23
of the last 25 winners were rated less than 142.
18
of the last 21 winners had a top 4 finish last time out.
17
of the last 21 winners had raced at a previous festival.
11
of the last 12 winners were at double-figure odds.
Only
1 Irish trained winner since 1951
Only
1 of the last 14 winners had run more than 16 times over fences.
The
Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (in November) hasn't won this in the last
19 years.
Contenders –
10 year trends
winner averaged 4.3
stars
Hunt
Ball 8/1 ** Top
weight. Owner is confident and he won with top weight last year. This
is harder and I'll oppose him.
Shoegazer 33/1 **** High
OR is his only failing, but 11-1 is fine and is a David Pipe horse.
Ballynagour
9/2f **** Could win this
by 10 lengths if the handicapper has it wrong.
Mad
Moose 33/1 **** Nothing
really wrong with him trends wise.
Cantlow
7/1 **** Good horse, 66
days off is a worry though.
Giorgio
Quercus 33/1 **** Again
he's been off 104 days and I'll avoid him because of that.
Kapga
De Cerisy 14/1 ***** Great
on the trends, 1pt up on OR is not relevant. Only win at distance was
in a small field on heavy, but this ground isn't a problem
Mister
Hyde 66/1 ***** 1st
fence fall in the Racing Plus Trophy. Don't like that, but hits all
other trends.
Divers 16/1 ***** Loves
the course and 4th
last year, but disappointing this season. This does look perfect for
a big run though. Worry is Ferdy Murphy is well out of sorts this
season.
Conclusions
Ballynagour
(9/2), could be a shoe-in, but
I don't take that price in a 24 runner handicap. My 3 against the
field at are the 2 5-stars. KAPGA DE CERISY (14/1)
and DIVERS (16/1) and
SHOEGAZER (33/1).
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