Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase – Class 2 – 3m 7

Balthazar's King (left) misses this year's renewal

Overview

Not a race to get too involved with, the form is pretty honest. I managed to get A New Story when he was old. He's now really old at 15 and shouldn't really be racing any more. I hope he gets round ok after 2 horses died in last years race. Back to this years race. The last 2 winners have killed off a few of the notions about what the winner looks like. Younger horses could be the way forward and we will find out more this year.

8-year Trends

7/8 Irish Trained.

7/8 Placed in a Cheltenham or Punchestown Cross Country Chase.

7/8 Had won over 3 miles or more.

7/8 Were officially rated between 126 and 143.

6/8 Had raced withing the last 37 days.

6/8 Carried less than 11 stone.

6/8 Had run in less than 18 Chases.

6/8 Won 1 of their last 2 starts.

Additionally

Of the 16 races on the course, 14 have been won by horses from the first 3 in the betting.

Irish-trained horses have filled 34 of the 40 places up for grabs.

Contenders – average winner 3.8 stars

Trends are weak in the 8 runnings. Its probably better to rule out horses that are unfit, haven't won at more than 3 miles and haven't placed in similar races.

Out go: Passato, Wedger Pardy, Sacree Tiepy. Shakervilz, Any Currency and Saddlers Storm

Vulnerable:

Uncle Junior (12yo giving 10lbs+ to the rest)

A New Story (15yo is not a positive)

Double Dizzy (backed him before, should find a few too many at the sharp end of the race)

Freneys Well (13yo who finished down the field 2 years ago)

Leac An Scail (12yo, but nothing else is a negative)

Best of the rest:

Outlaw Pete 11/2 **** Winner of the December event, should give his backers a good run.

Bostons Angel 9/1 *** Renewed enthusiasm over these courses and ground will suit. Only 6^th in the PP Hogan Chase last in February after good Cheltenham showing behind Outlaw Pete.

Sizing Australia 14/1 **** Winner in 2011. Not won a Chase on worse than good.

Arabella Boy 4/1f **** Favourite, won in the PP Hogan, but not too hot in the Cheltenham race in December (fell while behind)

Big Shu 12/1 ***** 2^nd to Arabella Boy in the PP Hogan. Possible each-way selection if taking to the course.

Conclusions

Small stakes advised. I don't really want to commit to anything at this stage. Possible each-way on BIG SHU (12/1).