Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle – Grade 3 – 2m 1f

Alderwood (running today in the Grand Annual) takes the County Hurdle.

Overview

Tough handicap (of course). Plenty of big priced winners recently. But some strong trends to use as well.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had achieved a RPR of 129 or more on a Left-Handed course.

10/10 Had between 4 and 16 hurdle races.

10/10 Had finished in the top 4 in either of their last 2 starts.

10/10 Had at least 4 runs in the season.

9/10 Had carried less than 11-02.

9/10 Were rated between 128 and 140 by the handicapper.

8/10 Had raced within the last 36 days. [Thousand Stars (55), Final Approach (68) – both Mullins trained]

Additionally

17 of the last 19 winners has raced at least 4 times in the season.

16 of the last 19 winners had raced within the last 5 weeks.

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.2 stars

 Hisaabaat 25/1 **** 61 days off and a bit highly rated for a 5yo. Ran superbly over the new course in the Triumph last year though.

Edgardo Sol 25/1 **** High in the weights (Harry Derham takes off 5lbs). Does have an each way chance with a very good course record, 132. Paul Nicholls is having a poor festival.

Clerk's Choice 66/1 **** Had a strange season. Mainly avoiding the heavy ground, so any rain will be a worry. There are better horses out there.

Tennis Cap 14/1 **** Beat Discoteca last time. Slightly high in the ratings, but not a worry.

Tanerko Emery 16/1 **** Great run 6 days ago. Not sure I want a horse that's run so soon but is trained by David Pipe so you never know.

Discoteca 25/1 ***** Gets a good pull at the weights with a claimer on board after a 2^nd to Tennis Cap.

Princeton Plains 14/1 **** Pricewise. 6^Th and 8^th last 2 starts. All 10 winners had a top 4 finish in those races. 7yo's have a record of 1 win from 66 (12 places). Chances, but others better at this, now, shorter price.

Shadow Catcher 25/1 **** No form at all.

Dan Breen 28/1 **** 8yo, (Alderwood won last year), I'd be worried that

It's A Gimme 20/1 **** Not seen for 83 days, that's a worry.

Abbey Lane 28/1 ***** Assumed non-runner, as he was unplaced on Wednesday.

Ifandbutwhynot 11/1 ***** Pretty good in the trends. Has a good chance, any ground is fine. Aged 7 if you want to oppose him.

Manyriverstocross 40/1 **** 8yo with only 1 run in 2 ½ years (10^th in the Betfair Hurdle last month)

Claret Cloak 20/1 **** Every winner has a decent rating Left-Handed. He has not, so is over-looked.

Ted Veale 12/1 ***** All his form is on soft and heavy, but otherwise is pretty good in the trends. Bit short for a soft ground horse.

Kian's Delight 33/1 **** Another that hasn't achieved much Left-Handed. So not for me.

Kings Lad 33/1 ***** Consistent, but pulled up, tailed off, just 6 days ago. Tough to fancy him unless its part of a Tizzard coup.

Conclusions

Cotton Mill (8/1fav) is just too high in the weights for me. I'm on DISCOTECA (25/1). He's got the perfect profile (nearly) and some decent form in the book. IFANANDBUTWHYNOT (12/1, Boylesports), would be a bet for me if I could get on there. Princetown Plains (14/1) is pricewise and too short for me to bet but is an option. Edgardo Sol (25/1) has excellent course form, but Paul Nicholls isn't renown for his handicap coups.