Rewards4Racing Novices' Handicap Chase – Listed – 2m 41/2f

Hunt Ball on his way to victory in 2012

Overview

This novices' handicap has only been around for 8 years and Hunt Ball smashed the limited trends that had appeared in the previous 7 runnings. However on closer inspection, this is one of the hardest handicaps to get into. A progressive Hunt Ball (rated 142) won off 12 stone but the bottom weight was only 10lbs lower. This year it's there is only 11lbs (inc claim) between top and bottom.

8-year Trends

8/8 Had finished in the top 2 last time out.

7/8 Had raced over fences between 3 and 6 times.

7/8 Finished top 4 in all completed chases.

7/8 Had won over at least 2 miles, 2 furlongs.

6/8 Had last run between 30 and 43 days ago.

6/8 Hadn't won more than 1 chase.

6/8 Aged 7.

Additionally

Only 1 horse that carried a penalty ran into a place.

Every winner came from the first 5 in the betting.

7 year olds have won 6 from 55 runners, all other ages are 2 from 81.

Contenders – average winner 4.3 stars

Colour Squadron 6/1f **** Has yet to win at anywhere near 2m4f. This is his only negative.

Vulcanite 16/1 *** Been running over 2m, so this is an unknown.

Carlito Brigante 8/1 *** Has run in some hot Novices' this season, (Dynaste and Unioniste), has a chance but is too short for me to back in this.

Shangani 8/1 *** This is the typical improver that should run his race. US-bred horses have a bad record at the Festival (4 winners from 194 runners in last 10 years, last winner Detroit City in 2006)

The Druids Nephew 8/1 **** Another on the upgrade with stamina in abundance, but off for over 2 months.

Forgotten Gold 20/1 *** Best in small fields, unseated when beaten last time. Need to bounce back here.

Bobowen 18/1 *** Was on the upgrade before a poor performance here in October. Needs to get over that (back to hurdles since)

Ohio Gold 20/1 **** Has run into one-time Arkle hopes Majala and Fago this year. He's a big price and can make the frame.

Hazy Tom 16/1 ** Yet to win this far. Has to be opposed.

Arthurs Pass 16/1 ** This 9yo has a penalty for a win. Needs to improve markedly to win this.

Conclusions

This looks incredibly tough to call. No-one is a 5-star pick on the fairly ropey trends. The winner should come from the front of the betting as the bare form is out there for all to see. Colour Squadron (6/1) has been backed off the boards today, but I'm worried as he is yet to win over 21/4m let alone 21/2m, always finding one too good on the day. The Druids Nephew (8/1) is preferred, but could be ring rusty in this hot heat. My tentative e/w pick is OHIO GOLD (25/1, Ladbrokes)