Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup – Grade 1 – 3m 21/2f

The late Synchronised wins last years renewal

Overview

What a race in prospect, the new guard are here. The old guard, 8 year old, Long Run faces 3 outstanding young things. There trends are very strong, but all of the protagonists have holes in theirs.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had raced between 2 and 5 times that season.

10/10 Had a Grade 1 Chase win under their belt.

10/10 Were aged between 6 and 9 years old.

9/10 Had recorded a seasonal Graded Chase win.

9/10 Had raced over fences between 6 and 12 times.

9/10 Had achieved an RPR of 171+ in their career.

9/10 Had an adjusted RPR of 175+ for this race.

9/10 Were rated within 7lbs of the RPR top rated

8/10 Had won over 3 miles or more.

8/10 Had been placed at a previous festival

8/10 Had won last time out.

Additionally

21 of the last 22 winners had raced at least twice that season.

22 of the last 25 winners were top 4 last time

17 of the last 19 winners were aged 7 to 9.

The last 13 winners had all won a Grade 1 Chase.

13 of the last 14 winners had won that season.

12 of the last 13 winners had an OR of 166 or more.

11 of the last 12 winners had finished top 2 last time.

12 of the last 15 winners were placed at a previous festival.

9 of the last 12 winners had finished top two at a festival

10 of the last 21 winners were second season chasers.

73 of the last 75 horses beaten in the race, were beaten again. [Kauto Star and See More Business (c/o)

No horse aged 11 or more has won since 1969.

Only 1 horse has won with less than 6 Chase starts since 1963.

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.4 stars

Bobs Worth 3/1f **** Looks the most likely winner. I really don't like him with 1 run (Hennessy Gold Cup in early December) as he missed a prep earlier, and he has only 5 Chase starts. Loves the course and is 4 from 4 here.

Cape Tribulation 16/1 *** Improving every run, stayed on great last time. Needs more, maybe next year. Place claims if the favourites cut their own throats.

Captain Chris 14/1 **** Does he truly stay, does he like right-handed courses. That's why he's 14/1. The extra 2 1/2f might well find him out.

Long Run 5/1 ***** All to prove, if he settles into a good jumping rhythm he can win. He's still the best horse in this on the trends.

Monbeg Dude 66/1 *** Welsh National winner. That takes a lot out of you and I'd leave him alone this season.

Silviniaco Conti 5/1 ***** Called a flat-track bully, and only has 1 run here (Hurdle 3^rd). That's the only small concern.

Sir Des Champs 4/1 **** 2 wins round here, but with First Lieutenant beaten yesterday, is his form any good. Hasn't achieved a good enough RPR of 171 (169). No jockey at the moment. AP McCoy is now available.

The Giant Bolster 16/1 ** Lets be honest, that was a fantastic run last year. I still don't think he can jump or stay. Oh well. Plenty of fails. No Grade 1 win, no 3m win, RPR not good enough. Sorry.

Wayward Prince 100/1 *** Again, no Grade 1 wins, RPR not good enough, blah blah.

Conclusions

I'm going to stick my neck out and say SILVINIACO CONTI (5/1) and BOB'S WORTH (3/1fav). Not original or big prices, just watch and hope the Giant Bolster doesn't prove me wrong.