Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) – Listed - 3m

Top weight Cape Tribulation followed up his win at Aintree next time

Overview

Another tough handicap to get our teeth into. The weights are compressed with the field within 13lbs, so those stats can be taken with a pinch of salt this year.

10-Year Trends

9/10 Were aged between 6 and 9. [Buena Vista retained his title aged 10]

9/10 Had run within the last 48 days. [Buena Vista was off for 61 days in his 2^nd win]

9/10 Had won a Class 3 hurdle.

9/10 Carried less than 11-03 in weight.

8/10 Had won over at least 2m2f .

8/10 Had won over 3 miles or more.

8/10 Officially rated between 129 and 142.

Additionally

9 of the last 17 winners had won last-time out from only 20% of runners.

6 of the last 7 winners were aged 8 or older.

The last 12 winners were rated lower than 143.

The last 9 winners were 10/1 or bigger, including 2 50/1 winners.

Only 1 5yo has won in the history of the race.

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.1 stars

Too many horses hit a lot of trends, 6 horses are 5-star trends-wise with many just behind on 4. These are:

According To Trev 22/1 This 7yo is a little young, but the better ground will suit him and he's a live contender

Pateese 40/1 Another who's been running on unsuitable ground. No win over 3m, but a cracking 3^rd at Haydock last season.

American Spin 50/1 In decent form this time last year (2^nd to Cape Tribulation at Aintree), and with the ground drying out has place chances. Negative is he's benn off for 78 days.

Captain Sunshine 20/1 2nd to Master Of The Sea (4^th yesterday) over 3m last time. Running on well before falling in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. Yet to win at the distance.

Hada Men 40/1 Crept in at the bottom. Hits all the trends, but lost his way this year on the ground. Did win a 3 miler on soft 2 runs ago.

Conclusions

I'm going to take on the favourite, Sam Winner. Never won past 2m1f and he's expected to win this 3m competitive hurdle... No way Pedro...

Plenty can win this, so it's worth finding a big price. The 5 above are perfect, but 8 and 9 year olds have the best record. So the 3 against the field are PATEESE (40/1), AMERICAN SPIN (50/1) and HADA MEN (40/1)