Racing Post Arkle Trophy Chase – Grade 1 - 2m

Sprinter Sacre beats Cue Card last year.

Overview

Another strong trends race but which the market usually gets it spot on, this year its a match between Simonsig and Overturn, with Irish contender Arvika Ligeonniere looking to take the trophy back over the Irish Sea for the first time in 3 years.

10-year Trends

10/10 Aged between 5 and 8 years old. Five 9 year olds have failed to make the frame

10/10 OR of at least 147 if not un-rated.

9/10 Top 2 in all Chase finishes

9/10 Rated within 6lbs of the RPR Top Rated.

9/10 Best RPR of 153 or more.

9/10 Hurdles rating of 143 or more.

9/10 3-5 Chase starts.

9/10 Had won at Cheltenham or had a top 4 at a previous festival.

8/10 Won a Novice Chase at 2m or 2m1f.

Additionally

24 of the last 26 winners had finished 1^st or 2^nd on their last start.

21 of the last 22 winners started at 9/1 or less.

12 of the last 13 winners had a hurdles rating of 142+,

Contenders – winner averaged 4.2 stars.

Arvika Ligeonniere 7/1 **** Fell last time and allowed a soft lead and win 2 runs ago. I don't think he jumps well enough left-handed but he passes all the major trends.

Baily Green 33/1 * Racked up a 7 timer this season, found life a bit tougher above Grade 3 level.

His Excellency 50/1 * Not good enough

Majala 33/1 * Won the Kingmaker at Warwick, only beat His Excellency by ¾ length and that isn't gonna be good enough for this.

Overturn 3/1 ***** 2^nd in the Champion Hurdle last year, he's taken to fences at the age of 9 like a duck to water. He's a little older than the usual winner, but you can't help but want him to win.

Simonsig 8/11f ***** Missed some work due to the weather, but last years Neptune Novices winner has look impressive in his 2 hurdles runs. Just 2 starts is usually a negative in this, but this looks devoid of real talent.

Tap Night 50/1 * No chance

Conclusions

Doesn't have the strength in depth of previous renewals, and I'm not going to find a 50/1 winner. Overturn (3/1) should set the pace and may set the race up for Simonsig (8/11fav), or he could take him out of his comfort zone and force errors with only 2 chase wins behind him. I don't fancy Arvika Ligeonnaire (7/1) as he prefers RH tracks... Overturn wants good or good/soft ground, if that's the case he won't be winning on soft, but the country will be behind him. No bets from me. just watch.