RSA Chase – Grade 1 – 3m 1/2f

Bobs Worth beats First Leiutenant

Overview

A very strong trends race, featuring future Gold Cup types.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Were horses bred for National Hunt racing.

10/10 Had finished in the top 2 last time.

10/10 Had run within the last 53 days.

10/10 Had finished top 3 in a Graded Chase.

10/10 Had an adjusted RPR of at least 153.

10/10 Were rated to within 15lbs of the RPR top rated horse.

9/10 Had started between 3 and 5 Chases.

9/10 Were aged either 7 or 8 years old.

9/10 Had achieved a previous RPR rating of at least 150 in their career.

Additionally

48 of the last 48 winners had run that year.

24 of the last 25 winners had finished in the top 2 last time.

18 of the last 19 winners had started at least 3 chases.

17 of the last 20 winners were Novice Hurdlers last season.

11 of the last 13 winners were aged 7.

No horse older than 8 has won since 1992 [Minnehoma].

Only 2 6-year olds have won since 1978 [Young Hustler (1993) and Florida Pearl (1998)].

Only 1 5-year old has won since 1950 [Star de Mohaison in 2006].

No ex-flat horse has placed since 1994.

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.9 stars

Boston Bob 5/1 **** 2^nd in the Neptune to the ill-fated Brindisi Breeze, a little inexperienced for this, but stays all day. If you are backing him, he'll be much bigger in-running and I've nagging doubts about him

Goulanes 15/2 *** Won on debut, I want more experience before he carries my money.

Hadrian's Aprroach 6/1 *** beaten by Unioniste at Newbury in Feb. A 6yo might find a couple too good.

Houblon Des Obeaux 11/1 **** Another 6yo, but looks stronger than Hadrian's Approach, just beaten by the good Rocky Creek (misses Cheltenham). Possible e/w chance

Lord Windermere 10/1 **** Done on the line by Boston Bob in a 4 horse blanket finish, so his 3^rd isn't a problem for me. I think he'll make the frame.

Lyreen Legend 12/1 *** The 4^th horse in that finish. A point off for being a 6yo. Again he's a big price considering Boston Bob is 4/1 or so.

Real Milan 33/1 * No chance on all known form

Terminal 20/1 ** Inexperience 6yo, who doesn't look good enough and doesn't finish enough races.

Theatrical Star 66/1 ** Not really gonna be good enough, but 100/1 is a big price.

Vintage Star 66/1 ** Doesn't win Class 4 races, so best to avoid.

Unioniste 7/2f ***** 5 year olds don't have a great record, however this doesn't look like any ordinary 5yo. Doesn't get the 10lb pull at the weights that Star de Mohaison did in 2006, but he looks a strong bet here.

Contenders:

Unioniste fits the trends the best, but is only 5. I'm probably going to look for a bit of value. HOUBLON DES OBEAUX (11/1) and LORD WINDERMERE (10/1).