Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle – Grade 3 - 2m 1/2f

Une Artiste sprang a 40/1 shock last year.

8-Year Trends

8/8 Were from a Group 1 winning flat sire.

8/8 Had achieved a RPR rating of 110 or more.

8/8 Had a flat rating of at least 85 (if rated).

8/8 Had run within the last 37 days (7 within 25).

7/8 Had an OR of 124-133. [What A Charm (115)]

7/8 Had not won in their first 2 hurdles starts [Une Artiste had]

7/8 Had no more than 5 hurdle starts. (6 had just 3) [Gaspara (10)]

Additionally

5 of 8 winners had won last time out, the other 3 were unplaced in a Grade 2 hurdle.

4 of the 8 winners were fillies, from 10% of runners.

Contenders – 10 year trends averaged 4.4 stars

No horses are 5 stars. I'm going to rule out the horses that fail the 8/8 trends including the 4-star favourite, Saphir Du Rheu, who has been off the track for 2 months and doesn't have a Group 1 sire.

No Grade 1 sire: Saphir Du Rheu (15/2) and Ptit Zig (14/1)

Flat rating below 85: Hilali (25/1), Totalize (16/1) and Habesh (40/1)

What's left is

Fatcatinthehat 16/1 Mullins Juvenile, hasn't done too much wrong, but what has he beaten.

Ruacana 20/1 Gifted a Grade 1 victory, 20/1 is a big price, but

Bordoni 9/1 Looks very strong on the trends, but hasn't achieved too much so far. US-bred is also a negative.

Knight Of Pleasure 40/1 Can't think he'll be in the frame here.

Angelot Du Berlais 66/1 Looks outclassed in this. 28 lengths behind Knight Of Pleasure.

Caid Du Berlais 25/1 Has been a little unlucky and is worth considering at 25/1.

Conclusions:

I'm going to plump for RUACANA (20/1) and CAID DU BERLAIS (25/1) who both have Group 1 experience at big prices.