Well that brought me down to earth, in fact it's beem the start of a terrible run.
Not a snifter in the last 2 weeks or so. I guess it started when I missed out on Mymateeric (SP12/1) at 25/1 because I was working and too busy to back it. This was way back on 30th November so you can see my problem as I've been chasing my tail ever since. Even horses I fancy and are heavily backed (Shropshire Lass 18/1 --> 11/2) don't bother with any sort of race....
Some good racing this weekend and I really do fancy some of the shorties. At least that, coupled with the poor form, means me not having tons of bets.
Cheltenham 2.25
I've nothing against any of the top of the market and won't put you off backing them. Chapoturgeon (13/2) needs a good performance as he falls far too often for my liking (whether its his fault or not), Atouchbetweenacara (15/2) is drifting like a barge this morning, probably because he was too short in the first place. Poquelin (5/1) has to have good ground according to Paul Nicholls, however that didn't stop him running on for 2nd in the Paddy Power. This is where the punters have latched on as he's hardly been punished by the handicapper for that run. I've always said lay Nicholls good things and back his 'i don't fancy' horses. As I haven't bought my RP this morning... (No I still haven't subscribed online - well you wouldn't want me to give it large and then back down would you) I don't know what he's said.
Anyway lets get down to the important stuff. Who to back? I've got it down to 2, but have only backed 1. Lets start with my real good thing. Razor Royale (11/1). This is Pricewise's selection today. I'd say grrrrrr, but the price hasn't changed at the moment. It was 11/1 with Coral last night and is still 11/1 with 2 bookies at the moment. I may have a win only bet as I hate backing at less than 12/1 (its just my e/w minimum)... Typical.. all the 11/1 has gone now BP 10/1. This horse loves the course, will get the diestance and loves the rain. The fact that it seems to be drying out isn't good, but its still soft and thats good enough for him. The horse I'm backing e/w is Hold Em (14/1, SJ, tote, Boyle, Coral, spbet). 3rd in the Paddy Power (Poquelin beat him in the run in) he should benefit from that run and with a better jumping round will go close.
Doncaster 2.45
My Petra has to prove something to me now. I'm taking her on with Arcalis (16/1, SJ, Coral, WH). Now I don't usually like backing those top weights, but Arcalis has a few things in his favour. The RP doesn't fancy it (hohoho), he'll like the ground, in fact he'll love the ground and he does act after a break. Obviously there are 2 things going against him... He' did bugger all last season and secondly, I'm tipping him.....
All in all, I'm doing shit and need a result today. But I won't give up as that's when I'll miss out.
Quick note about The Morning Line this morning..... What Johnny Francome thinks he's doing (and Tanya as well) recomending backing e/w in 7 runner races is suicidal... Good old Barry and McCrirrick for slagging them off....
If you want to back a horse in a 7 runner race each-way. You are backing it to win and backing it to finish 2nd. If you don't think it will win, go and find the winner. If you think it will finish 2nd, do an exacta/Forecast with the horse(s) you think will beat it. If you think it will win, go and back it on the nose. It really is that simple.... You are only getting 1/4 odds on it finishing 2nd.
see you next saturday.
