Wednesday 30 July 2008

the best of the rest

Perth
4.50 The 2 horses that ran last night are running here again and i think they are worth looking at again. Eight Fifty Six (16/1, Hills) gets a 7lb pull (including his claimer) on Fourpointone (18/1, Hills) for being beaten 3l last night. So the first mentioned is my e/w selection here.

Kempton
8.30 The Fifth Member (9/2, Paddy, Hills) (dual winner here in the last 5 weeks), ran well for place money at Goodwood yesterday. Looks a solid sort and I expect he'll challenge again. I'm tempted by Northern Spy (16/1, Paddys), too big a price IMHO and whilst he is nothing more than a speculative punt, he's got the armoury to run a good race and a rather interesting price.

Paddy Power now offer guaranteed odds on all internet prices. Not that my e/w selections ever drift, but if they do it's worth using them.

Glorious




Finally a little ME time... A day off and nothing planned. You haven't missed much, although I'd have given you the Exacta 0f £525 for saturday's Heritage Handicap, but who wants to hear about that.






Righto, on to more pressing matters and Glorious Goodwood... Yesterday was pretty decent stuff but no edge at this end and I reckon there's more of the same today.

2.15
This looks a cracking race, but its hard to pick a value horse and is one to leave alone. At the head of the market we have Som Tala (15/2), La Vecchia Scuola (8/1), Mudawin (10/1), Tomina (11/1) and Daylami Dreams (12/1). Off all of those 5, Tomina doesn't justify such a short price having never won above Class 5 (This is C2), but the others offer good chances but not too much value. If I had to have a bet, a small interest on Baddam @ 16/1 (vcbet, skybet) would be the order of the day.

2.50
2 year olds.... nice..... Especially nice that they have a favourite that hasn't won yet as well.. and Sayif looks beatable, but is only going to be beaten by something less short, so got to find something. If i had to stick my neck out, it would be nearer to Gladstone's than Spart..er... Christiano's, then Lord Shankill (6/1) offers a little of the old V-word..... There is a horse at 20/1 (Ladbrokes) that is far too big on what he's shown so far but Shaweel just should not be that price. Whether he takes to the track is a different matter, but @ 20/1 you don't need to own QPR to get a decent return.
3.30
Henry should win and with 6 runners there no e/w for me. The only chink in his armour could be the track, but only Tariq can handle that and I don't think he's good enough.
4.05
On the face of it another tough handicap, but I've a feelin' in me bones that a biggie will win this and it could be a nice placepot cracker. Howdigo (20/1) is the bottom weight (my favs) and looks the type to improve for this. Another bred for this step up in trip is Love Galore (18/1 bet365) and the booking of Johnny Murtagh is a good sign. The 3rd selection is Always Bold (14/1) . Trip could be on the short-side according to Spotlight but isn't one to cast away yet.
4.40
I wasn't convinced by Lee Miller LTO, but he got me up a nice placepot so I won't be too harsh on him, whether he justifies favouritism here is questionable. Perfect Star (14/1) was a good thing last year and returns after a year out. If he wasn't top weight, I'd consider it, but can't justify putting the money down. One to watch in the market as he must be in decent shape to come straight here. Reccomended Farley Star (20/1) in my first blog entry and ran a creditable 5th. Should be there-or-there-abouts this time as well. Algarade (15/2) could be the answer here.
5.15
Victoria Sponge (5/2) would be a normal lay on my 2 yo system (more another time), but this looks weak. A Goodwood Class 2 Maiden looks a strange place to give a horse its debut, I reckon the owners want a decent day out on the champers personally and have badgered the trainer to stick him in. Avoid as a betting proposition, stick the fav in with a couple of market steamers for your placepot.
5.50
Looks like an important lucky last for most punters. Firestreak (11/4, paddys) and We'll Come (3/1) look good shouts. Flawed Genius (3/1) looks too short given what he's done. Therefore a possible e/w steal here. (You) Need to decide between, Monkey Glas (16/1) and Mujood (16/1). who can both make the frame and can even win the thing.
I'll sort out the other cards in a bit.

Tuesday 22 July 2008

A quick update whilst I'm around.

Bangor-On-Dee
8.00
Ease The Way is 12/1 in most places and I reckon this is extremely good value.... As long as we get the 8 runners I expect it to be in the frame.... I;d rate this more as a 4/1 shot in my system and I recommend a bet here.

8.30
Powers And Soda (20/1 William Hill) was 4th to Yellow Flag LTO and probably isn't going to beat it this time... however he's still not too bad a horse and the 20/1 is pretty good e/w value here....

9.00
Possible e/w value here in the shape of Brochrua @ 20/1. Also watch out for a market move for one of the bottom weights, Beauty One (14/1). Not run for 14 months, but making debut for new yard with an in form trainer and also in 1st time blinkers. Much more competative here so no mortgage jobbie.


Right, Off to take in the scenes in St. Aines tonight as Brentford pay visit to the Swans.....

Sunday 20 July 2008

I could tell you the story about the £10 treble that won £138,000....




not too shabby a first tipping post....

Autograph Hunter came 3rd .... noice... and Snoopy Loopy was a 20/1 winner in the big race, McEvoy was placed 4th.

Typically my 'watch and see' at Lingfield, Tabulate wins (was 33/1).... not a bean on it of course.....


Sunday is a work day, and luckily the racing looks too competative for me to get into... GOOD.... i hate betting at work, too time consuming on my phone and usually miss the prices anyway, and i feel oh so guilty when I win and you lot don't .... hehe

I shall sit and watch Greg Norman win the Open, Lewis win the GP and SA win the cricket. Oh shit no I won't .. no Sky.... piss.... Oh well my dabble on SA @ 11/8 looks like coming home. Shame I missed the 12/1 on Ashwell Prince for the series..... pfft..

Little bit of poker on Pokerstars tonight, 7th in a 45 runner jobbie. Usual donk out AQ vs KQ... Flop KAK.... ironic eh....

Time for bed.... Lots of customers to service tomorrow...

Saturday 19 July 2008

Lincolnshire welcomes Cavey Wavey




Ripon doesn't look great from a value POV today. Salsa Star and Heaven Or Hell are the best 2 yo's in the first 2 races and I'm not trying to get them beat in the placepot.




A little value in the 4.00, where it wouldn't be a surprise to see Laterly (9/2) win at the expense of Celt.




Market Rasen


2.05 The 1st Scoop6 race. A couple in here that have won me money. Up in class the both of them. Wizard Of Us (14/1) was 20/1 when winning LTO :-) an and Moon Star (20/1) is tough as they come. Get the favourite beat in this and you're laughing. Sporazene (15/2) could be the one. Irish Horse, Eye Candy (16/1) comes over with some excellent winter form over the fences, but hasn't run over hurdles for a couple of years whehe he wasn't that great. Strange, a market move for this will be interesting... keep em peeled.




2.40 Horrible race tbh. Stick in a couple of market principles and Galley Slave (16/1) with Hills which looks over priced considering most of these are destinined for worse things.


3.10 Ladino is a NR, shame.... Ursis and That Look are probables but Cold Mountain (7/1) Hills looks pretty overpriced.


3.40 The last Scoop 6, i doubt it will be won. Oumeyade must be the unluckiest horse alive, falling (when he couldn't lose) taking the wrong course (when he couldn't lose), but has come back with some nice wins since. Funnily enough I'm against it here and want it battered into the ground by Captain Caveman. I spotted William Butler @ 16/1, 4 races ago. 4 wins later and he is everybody's darlin'. Piss off and find your own horses. 2 big ones against the field, Snoopy Loopy (20/1) and McEvoy (18/1). Best race of the afternoon.... oh yes.... now if only the Teen Angels were coming round to sit on my... sofa?... yes, sofa.


4.15 Southern Regent (3/1) offers alittle value. Places should be filled by the 3 favs and no shocks here.


4.50 Open looking race, stearing clear of Mey Clouds your only mission.


5.10 Double Mead (9/4) a worthy favourite. Not a bet though at that price.


A quick scout about for tonight, nothing at Haydock, but Lingfield looks more interesting.


5.50 Autograph Hunter (25/1) http://www.ladbrokes.com/ , www.skybet.com . Not a lot in this and i think this one may have got under the radar. I think 25/1 e/w is a cracking price, it won't last long.


6.20 Very competative and a few big priced horses not without a chance. Every-so-often Tabulate tables a good run. This looks like her best chance for ages if she wants it. 33/1 with Hills, but i'd rather watch for signs of improvement here (without her in the frame) and nail the bookies next time. I don't like backing top-weights and Green Pirate (20/1) has this problem. I wouldn't be surprised to see a good run.


My only e/w bet is


Lin5.50 Autograph Hunter @ 25/1.


Not So Lucky 31*


Nmk3.05 Kal Barg @ 11/2

MR3.10 Cold Mountain @ 7/1

Nmk3.35 Cape @ 13/2

Rip4.00 Laterly @ 9/2

MR4.15 Southern Regent @ 3/1


If you're spending £31 on a L31... half your bets are losers after 1 loss. I'd rather load the stakesat the front end.


£3 singles (5 bets = £15)

£1 doubles (10 bets = £10)

50p trebles (10 bets = £5)

25p four-folds (5 bets = £1.25)

25p five-fold (1 bet = 25p )


Just a quick note. http://www.bet365.com/ , http://www.stanjames.com/, http://www.betdirect.com/ offer guaranteed odds on all UK horse racing. Especially useful when backing short-priced favourites, which invariably drift when the market opens.

Stan James look to have bought out www.betterbet.com this week.


titles are for wimps....

Ah, my favourite betting day, where quality shines through in the big races.... and i don't win.

Well, I've missed the Channel 4's Boring Line thanks to a combination of oversleeping - GOOD and Sky not working - BAD . The show where pompous fools pat each other on the back whist never tipping anything outside the top 4 in the betting..... grrrrrr. There are a couple of exceptions, in the excellent John Francome and Tanya who likes a nice e/w pick and isn't afraid to say it. More ranting over the weeks I'm sure.... Right onto the betting..

Newmarket
1.30 Liberation Spirit (7/4) looks a pretty good favourite here but I don't like that so lets delve a little deeper. Andaman Sunset (5/1) beat Orchestration (12/1) as a 2yo, however hasn't gone on to better things this season. Orchestration hasn't run since and his delayed absence is interesting. His trainer is sending him down to the home of racing and he must think he has a chance. Definitely one for your placepot, whether he's solid enough to consider backing is a tricky one. I'd probably want bigger than 12/1 currently on offer from http://www.skybet.com/

2.00 Lake Windemere is another solid favourite in Division II of this race. Nothing else springs to mind.

2.35 Dar Re Mi is a quality horse, and http://www.ladbrokes.com/ 's 11/4 will look a huge price if he wins (the 3yo's get 12-15lbs over the older horses). Ronaldsay (8/1) is in form and is a danger. Folk Opera to make the frame. Can't have Arthur's Girl or Icon Project and i rate Pentatonic (12/1) to beat those.

3.05 Kal Barg (11/2) looks an outstanding price here stepping up to a mile.

3.35 If Cape (13/2) gets the luck, he'll win, if he doesn't he won't. FACT with added TRUE :D

4.10 2yo races... whoopie doo... great for the placepot... not. I don't do 'breeding bollox', if I'm at the races i'll do the paddock, but not from my armchair. I do like my trends though and only 1 double-figure drawn winner in the last 10. Worth noting... The favourites (with a run) all have decent draws.

4.45 Fregate Island (9/2jf) looks a tempting price. However has too much seconditis to be certain

5.15 Not in the placepot, a really competative handicap, time for a beer.

Leg1 Liberation Spirit, Orchestration
Leg2 Lake Windermere + 1
Leg3 Dar Re Mi, Ronaldsay
Leg4 Kal Barg
Leg5 Cape
Leg6 3 of the low drawn horses.

Not a great placepot, really need the favourites out of the frame in the first 2. Could put in another in the 3rd leg for protection. 24 lines is cheap enough.

Newbury
1.50 Nasty little race for placepot purposes, but if we can get Oratory out of the frame it will be an excellent start. Awinnersgame and upto any 4 of the other chances (except Kaiser Willie) in the placepot.

2.20 Corrybrough looks an excellent 3yo, but we must get him beat if the placepot is to pay. Stick in 2 others as insurance, Balthazaar's Gift is one, Strike The Deal isn't.

2.50 Not the most difficult Scoop6 race ever (that's next). Maghya (7/2f) has finished in the top 2 in every race she's run. The 2 2nd favs, Fragrancy and Lindelaan should be around. A bigger priced possible winner is Farley Star (12/1) now that she has some Class 2 experience.

3.25 Wow, good luck hehe...... no, ok.... Penny's Gift (3/1) is far too short... Stick in 4 others at the top of the market and hope for the best.... byeeee....

3.55 Can't put you off any. This is bloody tough and I wish you good luck in your quest, sir.

4.30 Is Bankable (13/8f), Bankable??. Beaten by the draw last time as they forgot they actually could have used the other side of the track. This time he should hose up. If he doesn't then the placepot is gonna be huge. Stick him in with 2 others. Halicarnasus (16/1) (http://www.bluesq.com/ , http://www.sportingbet.com/ ) backed last time has a chance and Wise Dennis (20/1) is class. Making his return this season after a sucessful stint in Dubai. Last year he won on his seasonal bow.

5.00 Looks a nice opportunity for Calculating (13/2) http://www.williamhill.com/ . All wins on AW but this looks a better race for him. The underrated Davie Probert on baord takes off 7lbs.

Leg1 Awinnersgame + 4
Leg2 Corrybrough, Balthazaar's Gift
Leg3 Maghya
Leg4 4 picks
Leg5 4 picks
Leg6 Bankable

Had to cut down and hope the bankers do the bizz. 160 lines, ideally another in legs 2,3 & 5. Possibly cut one off leg 1 to compensate.

knackered..... more later possibly... but the crickets on, the golf's on and i'm hungry...

Introduction... :wave:

Welcome to what will hopefully be an informative blog on the betting thoughts of myself and valued contributers.

Firstly, let me introduce myself. I'm a.. ahem 30-something male.... working in the bookmaking industry and having spent the first few gambling years making losses - some too big to remember :-/ - but have managed to turn my losses into decent profits by searching out the value. I won't be producing 'tips' here as such, but will post my betting thoughts for you to absorb and follow if you wish. My main interest is in backing (and laying) horses and betting on football and cricket. I particularly back e/w @ 12/1 or more (hence the value), or back shorter-priced horses in doubles and trebles. I also have the odd dabble in placepots when bored and do too many silly bets for my own good.

For my sins, I'm a huge Brentford fan and follow the mighty 'Sex in the County Championship. I also have another passion in poker and will from time to time unload my bad beats onto the unsuspecting public... ie YOU. Please be understanding and don't yawn!!

Signing off..... ps I hate saturday racing.... you have been warned