Grand National Contenders Rated

Many Clouds     8/1fav     ****

Last years victor and a worthy favourite this year, lots of boxes ticked, must go close, but has a star lopped off because low-weights are still favoured.

Silviniaco Conti     12/1     ***

Classy multiple Grade 1 winner at 3 miles, but yet to prove his stamina at marathon trips and again has a big weight to carry.

First Lieutenant     40/1     ***

lots of miles on the clock now and not your typical staying type, 16th last year a good 90 lengths behind the winner, hard to see him getting any closer this year.

Wonderful Charm     50/1     **

Only 1 run this season for this 8 year old, since pulling up in his only try at an extended trip in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown, a major surprise if he won this.

Ballynagour     66/1     ***

Not a guaranteed stayer at 3 miles and has been continually beaten over that trip this season, avoid.

O’Faolains Boy     33/1     ***

Had injury problems since his RSA Chase victory 2 years ago at Cheltenham, 7th in the Gold Cup and this looks a bit too early in his career to be winning this.

Gilgamboa     66/1     ***

Yet to win at 3 miles and another to ignore.

On His Own     50/1     ***

This 12 year old could have won the Cheltenham Gold Cup 2 years ago, powers on the wain since and has fallen in both attempts in this race in 2012, 2013.

The Druids Nephew     16/1     *****

Has an excellent chance in my opinion. Fell on landing last year 5 fences out when going the best. A little too highly rated than most historical winners, but only carries 11 stone with some talented horses running above him.

Troilo D’Alene     33/1     ****

Former Hennessy Gold Cup Winner (2013) and still only a 9 year old, however pulled-up 2 years ago and was off the track for a year until January and so only has 2 runs this season.

Rocky Creek     66/1     ****

Out of sorts this season and chance probably went 2 years ago when 5th (lead 3 fences out before fading). 17th last year. 4 stars is generous.

Sir Des Champs     40/1     ****

Classy Grade 1 winner in his pomp (2nd in 2013 Gold Cup), just not firing now at that level. Never raced past the Gold Cup distance either. Off the track for 63 days not ideal.

Holywell     16/1     *****

Excellent 2nd in the 3 mile handicap at Cheltenham, which is a good preperation race for this. Usually a good jumper and has a chance although not tried a marathon trip before.

Shutthefrontdoor     20/1     ****

5th last year was excellent considering he had just 7 Chase runs under his belt. Trouble is he's only raced twice this season and his only Chase was tailed off before pulling up. Place chance at best.

Soll     50/1     ****

7th and 9th in this so knows how to get round, excuses last year, but isn't getting any younger and any chance may have gone.

Buywise     66/1     ***

This is the Buywise story, he gets held-up because he can't jump, then as he gets into a jumping rhythm he moves through the field to finish an unlucky 2nd, 3rd or 4th. He's been off for 70 days and hasn't won past 2m7f yet. Paul Moloney (placed in the last 7 Grand Nationals) is on board, so he may have a place chance. 

Boston Bob     25/1     ****

Out of sorts for 2 years before winning the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February. Talented, but could have achieved much more. Stamina to prove and only 2 runs since a July run in the Galway Plate (13th, always behind).

Aachen     100/1     ***

He's a 12yo who's basically a 3 miler, and his biggest win was in December for (£25k) although that was over 3m2f. Beaten 120 lengths in his last 2 starts. He's also British-bred (last win 2001, Red Marauder). 

Morning Assembly     25/1     ***

Back from almost 2 years off in January, on the right track in 4th behind Holywell, but untested past 3 miles 1 and has just the 8 Chases so far and biggest win is £20k.

Double Ross     80/1     ***

If he wins, he will be the new Gay Trip. No win past 2m5f. usually front runs and runs out of puff in 3 mile races, may have to be held-up here.

Goonyella     20/1     *****

Perfect 5 stars. Midlands Grand National winner last season, then 2nd in the Scottish National a month later. Had a couple of hurdles spins, so this has been his aim all season. However only 9th in only spin over these fences in December. 

Ucello Conti     25/1     ***

French horse, now trained by National winning trainer Gordon Elliott, Just 3 runs for him and decent runs the last 2 times stepped up to 3 miles, however 79 days off, and obviously untested at a trip. Can't rule out, as his trainer had the golden touch in handicaps at Cheltenham, but would be an unusual winner.

Unioniste     33/1     *****

Fell at the 5th last year, the only time he's not completed in a 28 race career. Won a 3m2f 4 runner affair in February, so not much form at a trip, ticks lots of boxes, hmmm just doesn't look the National type to me.

Le Reve     50/1     ****

No win past 3 miles yet, but a decent performance in the Bet365 Gold Cup, could plod into a place, but unlikely to win.

Gallant Oscar     20/1     ****

No staying Chase form, no form recently either, shouldn't be good enough and a lucky 4 stars horse.

Onenightinvienna     50/1     **

Just 4 chase starts and yet to win over 3 miles. Difficult to see the 7 year-old novice featuring.

The Last Samurai     10/1     ****

Backed into 2nd fav after a 10 length beating of the The Druids Nephew, in the Grimthorpe Chase. No experience of a trip, but not failed to disappoint over 3m2f so far, so more to come. Only 8 chase starts so far his only negative.

Kruzlinin     25/1     **

10th 2 years ago, when a 7yo. Won at 3 miles, but not further and no place form at a trip. Olny won a 12k race so far and has just the 2 runs this season after a year out. 

Rule The World     50/1     ***

2nd in last year's Irish National, but no runs at that distance before or since. 0/13 in his career must mean a place is the best he can hope for.

Just A Par     50/1     *****

Perfect trends. Won the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown last April staying on strongly, so the distance won't be a problem, but struggled this season, beaten over 80 lengths in his 3 races and a run just 18 days ago to get a run into him and possibly some confidence back after some indifferent jumping.

Katenko     66/1     ***

Badly out of form lately, and just 1 win at 3 miles so far, best to leave alone, lucky to be 3 stars.

Vics Canvas     66/1     ****

He's 13 now, so he can't win, although he was an excellent 2nd to Just a Par at Sandown, but nothing shown this year as age may have caught up with him.

Black Thunder     66/1     **

Not shown anything so far this season, and chase wins over a bare 3 miles are getting me excited, his biggest chase win just £17k.

Ballycasey     80/1     ****

Brought down early last year, but he's basically a 21/2m horse, and really shouldn't be 4 stars. An unlikely finisher.

Hadrian’s Approach     66/1     ****

Just one run in a year, stamina no problems, but all his 3 runs since winning the Bet365 Gold Cup 2 years ago have been disappointing.

Vieux Lion Rouge     66/1     **

Just a 7yo novice with 6 starts. Not this year.

Pendra     66/1     **

Not really the national type, been around for ages but just 9 starts over fences, and off for 4 months.

Saint Are     16/1     *****

Perfect trendswise, 2nd last year, and should have an excellent chance if the ground dries out. Bit worried that he was risked in a Cross-Country chase at Cheltenham, then disappointed in the Becher Chase back here. Bounced back at Doncaster last time.

Home Farm     100/1     **

No 3 mile form and just 2 starts this season. Biggest win is £13k and nothing to write home about form-wise in his lst 3 starts.

The Romford Pele     50/1     *****

Not sure he'll be suited by this stiffer test, but has won over 3m2f and may run on into a place if he can avoid the trouble out the back.

Reserves

Bishops Road     33/1     *****

Shame he hasn't go in, but is first reserve until tomorrow morning. Ran throughout the summer, so only 2 runs since August, but all winning form is on soft or heavy. Romped home in the National Trial at Haydock (heavy ground) in first run at a trip. If hedoes get in, I don't think the price will last as punters will latch onto trainer Kerry Lee, who has already won some big races this season (incl Welsh National) in her first season training after taking over from her dad, Richard.

Knock House     100/1     ***

Decent 4th in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham, but little staying form and as a 7 year old, with an £11k win to his name, may be another year.

Perfect Candidate     66/1     ****

Has been tackling staying chases this season with mixed success, hasn't really achived too much and has just a £12k chase win to his name/

Maggio     150/1     ***

Not shown to be good enough so far and no form past 3 miles.

Another grand national where the weather is changeable, currently its soft with a bit of good to soft, but there is rain forecast on friday night, but dry most of the rest of the time. I expect it will be similar to now.

Shortlist

It's very hard to crab anyone choosing Many Clouds (8/1fav), as he's a very good chance of following up with back to back wins, however 8/1 is too short for me, although he may appear in some combination bets. The Druids Nephew (16/1), was going well last year before falling, I think he can run well again. Sir Des Champs (40/1) has stamina doubts, and prefers softer ground, so he's not on my radar. Holywell (16/1) will like better ground, so that has to put him in doubt with the current forecasts. Soll (50/1) will like soft, but isn't good enough anymore. Goonyella (20/1) has run well on soft and good at marathon trips even if his trainer says he wants the rain. Unioniste (33/1) struggles in big fields, but does like any ground. The Last Samurai (10/1) looks on the upgrade, but is a little inexperienced for the usual winner, especially at this price, he's another for the the combi-tricast. Just A Par (50/1) blows hot a cold, but needs better ground anyway. Saint Are (16/1) goes ok on soft ground, but I think good/soft is better for him, he loves Aintree. The Romford Pele (50/1) ticks a lot of boxes, but does prefer better ground. He may get a place.

My each-way bets

THE DRUIDS NEPHEW (16/1, general)

GOONYELLA (20/1, general)

SAINT ARE (16/1, general)

Make sure you get 5 places online. If you are going to the betting shop, ask for the price, Paddy Power should do 5 places on the high street, possibly betfred, but they might not have the best price.

If the ground goes heavy, or good/soft or better, then I may have to revise the selections, but all 3 should be comfortable on any ground.

good luck

Grand National 2016 - Trends Analysis

Many Clouds burst plenty of trends last year, mainly the weight he carried (11st 9lbs), and therefore his Official Rating (160).  Red Rum (12st) in 1974 is the only horse to carry more than 11-09, although the top weight is now 11-10. However, only one of the 14 behind Many Clouds carried more than 11 stone. He was also the first 8 year old to win since Bindaree in 2002. Only 2 8yo's have won since Party Politics in 1992. Many Clouds could easily be the first horse since Red Rum to win back to back Nationals.

We will again try to find the winner and maybe a forecast/tricast for the race using the methods that seem to apply year on year.



Age - Horses aged 8-12.
No horse outside of this age range has won a Grand National since 1940 when Bogskar (aged 7) took the honours. The last horse older than 12 was Sergeant Murphy (aged 13) who won in 1923. Horses younger than 7 are now prevented from competing, they couldn't win anyway and need protecting from over-enthusiastic trainers and owners.
Now 9 of the last 10 winners were all aged between 9 and 11 years old. Amberleigh House won well as a 12 year old in 2004, the only one that old since 1995, however horses outside the 8-11 age range have just 1 place from 65 runners in the last 10 years (Oscar Time (4th) in 2013).

10 Year Trends (won-placed-runners)
aged 6/7  0-0-25
aged 8     1-6-63
aged 9     2-12-104
aged 10   4-7-107
aged 11   3-4-61
aged 12   0-1-28
aged 13   0-0-9
aged 14   0-0-3



Distance Win - Winning form over at least 3 miles, preferably 3m1f+
Not since Gay Trip won the race in 1970 has the winner previously not won a race over at least 3 miles. It seems logical that if you haven't won a race at 3 miles or more, you won't win one at 4m 21/2f.

To go a bit further, all of the previous 12 winners had won a chase over 3m1f, and 9 of the last 12 had a top 3 finish over 3m 21/2f or further. The fences may be 'easier' and the distance 'shorter' (one through moving the start 200yds and the other when all racecoures were remeasured) but stamina is still extremely important at a marathon trip.



Weight Carried
Many Clouds bashed this one up last year, however I still want to be on horses carrying less weight, as most in behind him were carrying 11 stone or less. But we now can't rule out any horse, with 3 of the last 6 winners carrying a weight that for the previous 25 renewals of the race was impossible to win with.

In 2013 only 1 horse within 50 lengths carried more than 11st.
In 2014 only 1 horse within 115 lengths carried more than 11st.
In 2015 only 1 horse within 90 lengths carried more than 11st.



Race Fitness - Must have run within the previous 56 days
Was 49 days, but Neptune Collonges (2012) was 7 days longer and lee-way can be given. I can only find data going back to 1989 and every winner has run within 56 days.

Rough Quest had a break of only 16 days in 1996.

Horses need to be race fit to win this and horses start losing their edge after a long break, either enforced or otherwise. We want a horse that is ready to race and ready to win.



Form - Had finished in the first 3 in one of his last 3 starts.
Every horse needs to be in some sort of form, not necessarily winning form as we don't want that pesky handicapper finding us out do we. Even the hopelessly out of form 100/1 shot, Mon Mome, in 2009, managed a 2nd in the January of that year. Of course Auroras Encore wasn't placed in his previous 7 races to throw that out of the window but he'd run well in some decent Graded races. His last form was the previous April with a quality 2nd in the Scottish National.
 


Experience - Have run in at least 9 Chases
Horses need good jumping experience to win the Grand National. Every winner since Miinnehoma (9 Chase races) in 1994 has run in at least 10 Chases. You may want to give those with 9 races under their belt, the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't want to be affording others the same.



Class - Have won a chase worth at least £29,000
You still need to be classy enough to win the National. Bad horses still don't win. The horses at the lower end of the handicap will need to be scrutinised for this trend. Pineau De Reu won a £13,000 race, so leeway can be given if they tick most of the other boxes, but every other winner since Party Politics in 1992 had won a £17,000 Chase.



Season Runs - Have raced between 3 and 6 times since August
Missed prep races, setbacks in training, bad planning and over-raced horses will find it tough to win the Grand National. Miinnehoma had only 2 races in the 1993-94 season before his win. Every winner since has had 4-6 runs, until Ballabriggs (with 3) broke that, but was so strong on all the other trends he was a must bet. We are looking for horses that have been kept ticking over throughout the season without going over the top.


Conclusion: Winning Profile
Aged 8-12
Won over more than 3 miles
Top 3 finish in a 3¼ mile Chase
Last run between 20-56 days ago
9+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £13k to the winner
Between 3-6 runs since August

If you want to refine it further

Perfect Profile
Aged 8 to 11
Won a 3m1f Chase
Top 3 in a 3m4f+ Chase
Carrying less than 11-02
Last run between 20-56 days ago
10+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £29k to the winner
Between 4-6 runs since August


Good Luck

Cheltenham Festival Day Four

JCB Triumph Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m 1f

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had raced within the last 55 days.

10/10 Had won at least 50% of their hurdle races.

10/10 Were rated within 11lbs of the RPR top rated.

10/10 Had an OR of 84+ on the flat, or did not race on the flat.

9/10 Had raced over hurdles at least twice.

9/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 150.

8/10 Were from a flat Group 1 sire.

8/10 Made their hurdles début after November 10^th.

7/10 Had won last time out.

Additionally

20 of the last 25 winners had at least 3 runs over hurdles.

18 of the last 22 winners had won last time out.

18 of the last 22 winners had won at least twice over hurdles.

Only 1 winner was rated lower than 80 on the flat since 1996.

9 of the last 11 winners (since the introduction of the Fred Winter) came from the first 4 in the betting.

Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)

Nicky Henderson 3-4-14

Paul Nicholls 2-2-15

Alan King 1-4-13

Willie Mullins (Ire) 0-1-14

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.1 stars

Big McIntosh  100/1

Clan Des Obeaux  16/1

Connetable  14/1

Consul De Thaix  33/1

Footpad  9/1

Frodon  25/1

Gibralfaro  25/1

Ivanovich Gorbatov  11/2

Leoncavallo  22/1

Sceau Royal  7/1

Tommy Silver  20/1

Who Dares Wins  12/1

Zubayr  9/2fav

Apple's Jade  16/1

Let's Dance  14/1

Conclusions

Wiith the drying ground, Ivanovich Gorbatov (11/2), the top rated flat horse in the field while not being perfect on the trends, would be a likely winner, but he’s hardly value. Sceau Royal has had 7 runs, more than most, but is proven on the ground and 8/1 looks pretty good. Zubayr (9/2jf) has had 1 run and what an excellent one it was, comparisons with Zarkandar (also won on debut in the Adonis Hurdle for Paul Nicholls). Footpad (9/1)looked superb last time beating Let’s Dance and Ivan Gorbatov but that was on heavy and he is unproven on ground this fast. With it possibly being about the ground, the only ones who’ve run on something this firm are Zubayr, Ivanovich Gorbatov and Sceau Royal. Take your pick.

Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle – Grade 3 – 2m 1f

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had between 4 and 14 hurdle races.

10/10 Were rated between 131 and 139 by the handicapper.

10/10 Had ran in a handicap.

9/10 Had achieved a RPR of 136 or more on a Left-Handed course. The last 7 winners, 140+.

9/10 Had finished in the top 4 in either of their last 2 starts.

9/10 Had carried less than 11-01

9/10 Had at least 4 runs in the season. Exception ran 3 times and last year winner refused to start 6 days earlier after false start on 4^th run.

9/10 Had raced within the last 55 days.

8/10 Were aged either 5 or 6.

7/10 Were top 2 in at least 40% of their seasonal hurdles runs.

Additionally

51 of the last 54 winners had carried less than 11-03.

The last 21 winners had handicap experience. (Thumbs Up in 1993 the last not to)

19 of the last 22 winners has raced at least 4 times in the season.

18 of the last 21 winners had raced within the last 5 weeks.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 4-9-62

6yo 4-5-80

7yo 0-12-63

8yo 1-1-29

9yo 1-1-19

10yo 0-1-9

11yo 0-0-3

12yo 0-1-1

Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)

Willie Mullins (Ire) 3-5-18

Paul Nicholls 3-3-16

Philip Hobbs 0-5-15

Alan King 0-2-8

Jonjo O’Neill 0-2-10

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.1 stars

Cheltenian  33/1

Zamdy Man  50/1

Dicosimo  20/1

Devilment  33/1

Henry Higgins  20/1

Great Field  8/1

All Yours  12/1

Blue Hell  10/1

Fethard Player  33/1

Some Plan  25/1

Bentelimar  33/1

Sizing Tennessee  33/1

Hawk High  33/1

Ivan Grozny  40/1

Sternrubin  25/1

Starchitect  12/1

Mad Jack Mytton  20/1

Draco  50/1

Cardinal Walter  25/1

Francis Of Assisi  40/1

John Constable  12/1

Modus  14/1

Wait For Me  12/1

Kayf Blanco  40/1

Superb Story  7/1fav

Montbazon  28/1

Conclusions

They go at such a breakneck speed round here, that it pays to sit off the speed and with a lot of the horses fairly close in the handicap, and the trends, that is a nice angle to use to thin the field. With the good ground, we can this the field even further. Perfect trends horse MODUS (14/1, bet 365 5 places) is our first bet, will love the ground and will be held-up. At slightly bigger prices are HENRY HIGGINS (22/1, skybet, 5places) and MAD JACK MYTTON (25/1, bet365, 5places). That will do here. 2 at massive prices that still fit the bill are Devilment (40/1) and Draco (50/1), but the first 3 are enough in this.

Albert Bartlett (Spa) Novices' Hurdle – Grade 1 – 3m

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had raced over hurdles at least 3 times.

10/10 Hadn't run for 27 days or more. Last 9 winners had also run within the last 68 days.

10/10 Were aged between 5 and 7.

9/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of 146 or more.

9/10 Were rated within 12lbs or the RP Top Rated

8/10 Had finished top 2 in a Grade 2 Hurdle last time. 2 exceptions were 3^rd and 4^th.

8/10 Had won at 2m 5f or more. (Exceptions won a 3m PTP and 2m4f.)

8/10 Had won a Graded Hurdle.

8/10 Were Irish-bred.

6/10 Had run at Cheltenham during the season. 5 had won. 3 exceptions were Irish-trained.

Additionally

8 of the 11 winners started in the top 5 in the betting.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 1-5-38

6yo 5-8-81

7yo 4-4-43

8yo 0-3-17

9yo 0-0-2

Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)

Rebecca Curtis 1-0-6

Willie Mullins (Ire) 0-4-18

Colin Tizzard 0-1-5

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.4 stars

Allysson Monterg  40/1

Atlantic Gold  150/1

Aurillac  40/1

Bachasson  25/1

Balko Des Flos  25/1

Barters Hill  9/2

Bleu Et Rouge  10/1

Champers On Ice  33/1

Definite Outcome  33/1

Fagan  33/1

Gangster  7/1

Hit The Highway  66/1

Jonniesofa  40/1

Long Dog  8/1

Open Eagle  25/1

Shantou Village  4/1fav

Solstice Star  66/1

Unowhatimeanharry  14/1

Up For Review  16/1

West Approach  100/1

Conclusions

4 against the field who will like the good ground are all short in the market. I really didn’t like the manner of Barters Hill’s win at Doncaster, struggling to beat inferior opposition. I was extremely taken with Shantou Village’s start to the season on good ground here was excellent, then he ran into Yanworth on heavy and was beaten 7 lengths, but was in turn thrashing Champers On Ice again. Gangster has been well backed in the last week, easily winning his last race, stepping up to 3 miles. Finally its Long Dog (Ricci/Mullins/Walsh) who has beaten everything that’s been put in front of him. Thought he’d have gone for the Neptune Hurdle, but I guess Walsh would have ridden Yorkhill, so this may not be exactly the trip they wanted, as he’s won his last 2 races at 2 miles and before that 2m5f. Take your pick, feels like Shantou Village and Gangster for me.

Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase – Grade 1 – 3m 21/2f

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had a Grade 1 Chase win under their belt. 8 at 3 miles or more

10/10 Were aged between 6 and 9 years old.

9/10 Had raced between 2 and 5 times that season.

9/10 Had raced over fences less than 11 times. [Kauto Star reclaimed his crown on 20 Chases]

8/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of 173+ for this race.

8/10 Had recorded a seasonal Graded Chase win.

8/10 Were rated within 10lbs of the RP Top Rated.

8/10 Had won a chase over 3 miles or more. [plus Imperial Commander won a point-to-point.]

7/10 Had been placed at a previous festival.

7/10 Had won last time out. Exceptions 2^nd, 5^th and 6^th in a Grade 1.

Additionally

24 of the last 28 winners were top 4 last time

23 of the last 25 winners had raced at least twice that season.

20 of the last 22 winners were aged 7 to 9.

The last 16 winners had all won a Grade 1 Chase.

15 of the last 17 winners had won that season.

14 of the last 15 winners were all from the front 3 in the betting.

14 of the last 16 winners had an OR of 166 or more.

14 of the last 18 winners were placed at a previous festival.

13 of the last 15 winners had finished top 2 last time.

11 of the last 14 winners had been off for 62 days or less.

11 of the last 15 winners had finished top two at a festival

12 of the last 24 winners were second season chasers.

81 of the last 83 horses beaten in the race, were beaten again. [only Kauto Star and See More Business (c/o)]

No horse aged 11 or more has won since 1969.

Only 3 horses have won with less than 6 Chase starts since 1963.

No winner has run on heavy ground in his winning season

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

6yo 1-1-4

7yo 2-5-22

8yo 4-5-44

9yo 3-3-35

10yo 0-4-28

11yo 0-2-9

12yo 0-0-2

Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)

Willie Mullins (Ire) 0-4-9

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.4 stars

Carlingford Lough  20/1

Wouldn’t have even been considered until winning the Irish Gold Cup last time with a huge last to first victory. Could pick up place prize money if he does the same today.

Cue Card  4/1

Breathing op has transformed him from doubtful stayer into King George Chase winner. Does he stay 3m21/2f? Is he too old now? Possibly. I love the horse and would love him to win.

Djakadam  7/2

2 falls here at Cheltenham, but was a staying on 2^nd in last years renewal. They say you can’t come back from losing a Gold Cup to win one. The last first time winner to win after being beaten was The Fellow in 1994. (See More Business was carried out by another horse the year before in 1998). I’m against him, but he still has a chance.

Don Cossack  3/1fav

Brian Cooper has chosen him over Don Poli, and the drying ground will suit him. He’s the highest rated chaser in training, however he fell while about to challenge in the King George, he may have won, or maybe not. His record is superb, apart from at Cheltenham. He fell in the RSA 2 years ago and was a disappointing 3^rd in the RSA Chase in 2015.

Don Poli  4/1

Loves Cheltenham, and stays all day, could stay up the hill past tying up favourites. Runs too lazily for some, but always finds enough to get his head in front. Ground is fine for him despite what the papers may say. Only blip in his career was at Punchestown, but he’d done plenty that season.

Irish Cavalier  100/1

Basically an out of form horse too high in the handicap to run in those, likely to be pulled up.

O'Faolains Boy  66/1

Won the RSA 2 years ago, has been off with injuries since, not really been pulling up trees since. Just a watching brief.

On His Own  66/1

Could have been awarded the race 2 years ago, likely to lead up with Smad Place, but surely his chance, aged 12, has now gone.

Road To Riches non runner

Smad Place  10/1

Breathing operation and front-running tactics have revitalised him, surely he’ll do that again, but he’s never won a Grade 1 Chase and that a negative.

Conclusions

Difficult to split the top 4 in the market, should be a classic, I’d be happy for any of them to win.

St James' Place Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders) – Class 2 - 3m 21/2f

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had won over 3 miles or more.

10/10 Were aged between 7 and 10.

10/10 Had between 4 and 14 Chases (Cappa Bleu had 4 Point-to-Points)

10/10 Had not achieved an OR of 141 or more in their career.

9/10 Had achieved a rating of 130+ over fences.

8/10 Top 3 last time out.

8/10 Started their career in either Point-to-Points or Hunter Chases.

7/10 Had run within the last 35 days. 20-34 in fact. The 3 exceptions off for at least 252 days.

Additionally

21 of the last 22 winners had won under rules.

23 of the last 25 winners were aged 10 or less. 9 of the last 11 winners were aged 7-9 years old.

24 of the last 27 winners started their career in Point to Points or Hunter Chases.

23 of the last 30 winners had won last time.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

6yo 0-0-3

7yo 2-0-18

8yo 2-5-42

9yo 4-6-42

10yo 2-4-44

11yo 0-4-44

12yo 0-1-31

13yo 0-0-10

14yo 0-0-2

Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)

Enda Bolger (Ire) 1-1-3

Nigel Twiston-Davies 1-0-2

Jonjo O’Neill 1-0-5

Warren Greatrex 0-1-2

Colin McBratney (Ire) 0-1-2

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.4 stars

Alskamatic  40/1

Aupcharlie  10/1

Brackloon High  66/1

Camden  66/1

Cave Hunter  66/1

Chapoturgeon  33/1

Current Event  25/1

Current Exchange  40/1

Dark Lover  25/1

Impact Area  33/1

Indiana Bay  50/1

It Came To Pass  12/1

Major Malarkey  50/1

Marito  10/1

Mendip Express  10/1

Mr Mercurial  20/1

Need To Know  50/1

On The Fringe  11/4fav

Pacha Du Polder  20/1

Paint The Clouds  6/1

Pena Dorada  66/1

Richmond  50/1

Temple Grandin  100/1

Twirling Magnet  25/1

Conclusions

A race that may have more headlines than the Gold Cup 40 minutes previously, thanks to Victoria Pendleton’s ride on Pacha Du Polder, I hope she gets round, the horse isn’t a 3 miler though and can be comfortably left alone. Favourite, On The Fringe won last year, but being a year older, this maybe a step to far as he’s now 11. Paint The Clouds is also 11 and was 3^rd last year, he should give it a good run again, but is likely to find another one too good.

The perfect trends horse is Camden, but his Best RPR would make him the worst rated winner since Cappa Bleu in 2009. (he was a pure pointing horse at the time). CURRENT EVENT (20/1, bet365, 4 places) has had more that the usual chases in his career (19), but the ground will suit him and is a solid each way bet with 4 places. Dark Lover (25/1) is just the wrong age (11yo) to win but will like the ground a lot better than some.

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle – Class 2 - 2m 41/2f

7-Year Trends

7/7 Were aged either 5 or 6.

7/7 Were officially rated between 133 and 143.

7/7 had achieved an RPR of at least 136.

7/7 had less than 14 hurdles starts.

7/7 Were 1^st/2nd season hurdlers.

7/7 Had run within the last 52 days.

7/7 Carried a weight within 10lbs of the bottom weight.

Additionally

21 of the 28 horses in the top 4 were 1^st/2nd season hurdlers.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

4yo 0-1-1

5yo 2-4-39

6yo 5-8-54

7yo 0-6-36

8yo 0-1-18

9yo 0-0-8

10yo 0-0-5

12yo 0-0-1

Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)

Willie Mullins (Ire) 3-2-8

Paul Nicholls 1-4-12

Nicky Henderson 1-4-18

Gordon Elliott (Ire) 0-2-4

Nigel Twiston-Davies 0-1-4

Contenders – 7-year trends winner averaged 5.0 stars

Handiwork  100/1

Squouateur  4/1fav

Bivouac  28/1

Zulu Oscar  20/1

Tully East  33/1

Work In Progress  25/1

Label Des Obeaux  20/1

Buiseness Sivola  40/1

Childrens List  12/1

Qualando  10/1

Ibis Du Rheu  16/1

Whiteout  28/1

Westend Star  16/1

Mr Mix  16/1

Laurium  25/1

Flying Angel (5x)  14/1

Roadie Joe  66/1

Matorico  33/1

Nabucco  33/1

Jetstream Jack  16/1

Sky Khan  66/1

Montdragon  16/1

Goodwood Mirage  33/1

Urano  33/1

Conclusions

The truncatction of the handicap makes the weights fairly worthless with just 7lbs between to field, but these conditional jockeys often have gone off too fast to win and horses come off the pace to scoop the prize. SQUOUATEUR (4/1fav, general) ticks all the boxes, likes the ground and won’t be at the front of the pack.. Qualando (10/1) won the Fred Winter last year (and I shamefully ignored him at a big price). He is exactly the same type who is worth putting on the placepot and your forecasts. Willie Mullins has won 3 of the 7 renewals from only 8 runners (and 2 places). The best of his bunch could be CHILDRENS LIST (12/1, 5pl, totesport/betfred). He’s been backed in the evening and could be much shorter by the start of the race.

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase – Grade 3 – 2m 1/2f

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had won over 2 miles 1 furlong or more.

9/10 Had raced less than 13 times over fences.

9/10 Were aged between 6 and 9 years old.

9/10 Had raced within the last 54 days.

9/10 Fonished in the top 3 in one of their last 2 completed races.

8/10 Carried less than 11-00.

8/10 Had raced at a previous festival.

8/10 Hadn’t won this season.

8/10 Were officially rated between 129 and 143.

7/10 Had run less than 5 times since August.

Additionally

16 of the last 17 winners had raced less than 13 times over fences.

15 of the last 16 winners were aged 10 or less.

14 of the last 16 winners had carried under 11-00 (incl claimers)

22 of the last 25 winners had raced within 45 days.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 0-3-5

6yo 1-3-27

7yo 2-8-44

8yo 4-6-58

9yo 2-4-40

10yo 1-2-26

11yo 0-2-10

12yo 0-0-1

Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)

Nicky Henderson 2-6-31

Michael Scudamore 1-1-2

Arthur Moore (Ire) 1-1-4

Paul Nicholls 1-1-16

Jonjo O’Neill 0-2-5

Venetia Williams 0-1-9

Main Contenders– 10 year trends winner averaged 4.3 stars

Arthur’s Oak  20/1

Savello  25/1

Bright New Dawn  20/1

Dunraven Storm  40/1

Croco Bay  20/1

Dresden  33/1

Velvet Maker  12/1

Rock The World  11/1

Sizing Codelco  16/1

Bold Henry  25/1

Next Sensation  9/1fav

Eastlake  14/1

Red Spinner  25/1

The Saint James  16/1

Surf And Turf  66/1

Germany Calling  33/1

Solar Impulse  33/1

Workbench  33/1

Gardefort  33/1

Chris Pea Green  20/1

Lough Kent  16/1

Pearls Legend  25/1

Raven’s Tower  25/1

Dandridge  12/1

Conclusions

CHRIS PEA GREEN (20/1) is the perfect trends horse and also is happy on good ground. Next Sensation (9/1fav) is a year too old but must still be respected. Its worth having a saving each-way bet on DANDRIDGE (12/1, 5pl, Bet365) and possibly Gardefort (33/1, 5pl Bet365, but 50/1 with Skybet/betway, 4 places) if we can get 40/1 with bet365.