Ladbrokes
Irish Grand National (Handicap Chase) – 3m 5f
- Grade A
Lion Na Bearnai causes a shock last year. This year he may cause one in the English version.
Overview:
I almost picked the 33/1 winner last
year, Lion Na Bearnai, but found others too strong to select him, but
he did get a mention. The trends are strong and the going heavy, so
we are going to want a thorough stayer to win this renewal.
10-Year Trends:
10/10 Carried 10-12 or less.
10/10 Officially Rated between 121 and
136.
10/10 Had run between 6 and 13 times
over fences.
10/10 Had achieved a RPR of 134 or more
over fences.
10/10 Had won a race going Right
Handed.
9/10 Had won a Chase over at least 2m
5f.
9/10 Had raced in a Chase over 3
miles or more.
9/10 Had run within the last 51 days.
9/10 Were aged between 7 and 10 years
old.
8/10 Had raced in a handicap worth
£42,000 or more.
8/10 Had finished in the top 3 in one
of his last 4 starts.
Contenders:
Junior 25/1 **** Carries too
much weight, in fact he gives the field upwards of 13lbs.
You Must Know Me 20/1 ** Is
rated too highly, but that doesn't matter with Junior in the field.
But he only has 3 runs under his belt and hasn't won over 2m 5f yet.
His time may come later in his career.
Magnanimity 12/1 *** Promising
Novice who's lost his way in the last couple of years. Not proven
this far and is overlooked.
Sweeney Tunes 12/1 *** Not sure
I want an inexperienced horse who hasn't run as far as 3 miles before, certainly not
one as short as this.
Competitive Edge 20/1 ** He's a
6yo, with no form over the longer distances and is passed over for
this.
Cootamundra 25/1 *** Another
without a win past 21 furlongs, hasn't won right-handed over fences,
and there are better horses out there.
He'llberemembered 25/1 *** He
hasn't run over 3m before, nor in a big handicap. May run a good
race, but I think there are better options.
Home Farm 14/1 ** Bit too
young and inexperienced and has yet to encounter anything as tough as
this so far.
Jacksonlady 25/1 ** Inexperienced
without any form at a distance. He's ignored even with Geraghty on
board.
Muirhead 33/1 ***** He passes
all the trends (a little too highly rated), but doesn't seem to be
the horse over fences that he was over hurdles. I think he'll find it
tough on the ground.
Whodoyouthink 40/1 ***** finished
7th in this last year, fading on the home run. Almost
perfect trendswise, but another that might find it tough on the
ground.
Rich Revival 8/1f **** Great
start to his chasing career, with 3 wins from 3. Will love the
ground. His inexperience (and thus no big handicap experience) may
count against him. He's no value at the price but is an interesting
horse for next season.
Marasonnien 10/1 ** Ruby
Walsh's ride, but there are a few holes in his profile. Consistent,
but has never won a chase. I find it difficult to see him starting
here.
Away We Go 33/1 ***** Hits all
the trends, but I can't have him. Campaigned exclusively over hurdles
this season and not great on the ground. He's won over 2m6f, but
doesn't seem one for a longer trip.
Romanesco 12/1 ***** 15 Chase
starts is irrelevant in terms of experience. I do worry that he had a
hard race at Cheltenham (3rd in Kim Muir) and although
he's won on heavy, that was over a lot shorter.
Cross Appeal 33/1 **** Pulled-Up
in this last season, not seen since the turn of the year. I don't
like form of PP0 either. He has form on heavy and won the Paddy Power
Cup last season so has a chance on old form.
Jadanli 33/1 **** His main
negatives are that he's 11 and is a little exposed. He was 9th
at Cheltenham (JLT) and has less than 3 weeks to recover. Doesn't
mind the ground and has a chance.
Questions Answered 25/1 **** No
win past 2m5f and off the track a little longer than ideal. I'm not
sure the ground is in his favour either.
Blazing Beacon 28/1 ** Too old,
and not a 3m horse.
Panther Claw 14/1 ***** Has a
penalty for his win 2 weeks ago, but hits all the trends. The ground
is fine and looks the likeliest winner as long as his last run hasn't
taken it out of him. Jadanli beat
him in January so he should be in the mix too.
Start Me Up 33/1 *** Pulled-up
last year, fails a couple of mini-trends (not won a RH Chase yet nor
ran since 9th Jan. The ground is a big worry and he's out
of form because of it.
Carlingford Lough 14/1 * No
idea why he's 14/1. He is, trends-wise, the worst horse in the race.
Imperial Shabra 66/1 ***
Thoroughly exposed, he's done nothing recently and is easily opposed
especially on ground he's never won on.
Liberty Counsel 40/1 **** Hasn't
achieved anything so far and looks outclassed.
13th in the Kim Muir, he'd
prefer better ground.
Rapidolyte De Ladalka 25/1 ** Hasn't
beaten much as is readily opposed.
Carloswayback 40/1 **** Achieved
nothing of note out of Novice company. Would be a major surprise if
he was good enough.
Goonyella 14/1 ** Former
point-to-pointer, hasn't done anything wrong in his Hunter Chases.
Could go well, but 14/1 is short enough for a 6yo.
Our Victoria 33/1 *** All her
form is over shorter. Pulled-up here over the distance in December
and hasn't been seen since.
Paddy Pub 25/1 **** 4th
last year, has a chance but the ground is a worry.
Place chance at
best.
Quietly Fancied 25/1 **** Hasn't
won past 2m5f, no win on heavy and blatantly not good enough.
Conclusions:
While a lot of horses a 4-stars about, we have to worry about horses
that don't look stayers on the forecast heavy ground. Of the 5
'perfect' horses, 2 have ground worries and 2 have trip worries on
the ground. The one that survives is PANTHER CLAW [16/1,
Ladbrokes (4pl)] who looks a winner on paper. There are a couple
of other horses to look out for. JADANLI [33/1, betvictor
(5pl)] beat Panther Claw in January and is better off at the
weights, however Panther Claw is up and coming, Jadanli
is down and going. Rich Revival is the 8/1 favourite, so he
isn't a bet, but is worth watching with next season in mind. Perhaps
a cheeky exacta, trifecta is in the offing.