Well that brought me down to earth, in fact it's beem the start of a terrible run.
Not a snifter in the last 2 weeks or so. I guess it started when I missed out on Mymateeric (SP12/1) at 25/1 because I was working and too busy to back it. This was way back on 30th November so you can see my problem as I've been chasing my tail ever since. Even horses I fancy and are heavily backed (Shropshire Lass 18/1 --> 11/2) don't bother with any sort of race....
Some good racing this weekend and I really do fancy some of the shorties. At least that, coupled with the poor form, means me not having tons of bets.
Cheltenham 2.25
I've nothing against any of the top of the market and won't put you off backing them. Chapoturgeon (13/2) needs a good performance as he falls far too often for my liking (whether its his fault or not), Atouchbetweenacara (15/2) is drifting like a barge this morning, probably because he was too short in the first place. Poquelin (5/1) has to have good ground according to Paul Nicholls, however that didn't stop him running on for 2nd in the Paddy Power. This is where the punters have latched on as he's hardly been punished by the handicapper for that run. I've always said lay Nicholls good things and back his 'i don't fancy' horses. As I haven't bought my RP this morning... (No I still haven't subscribed online - well you wouldn't want me to give it large and then back down would you) I don't know what he's said.
Anyway lets get down to the important stuff. Who to back? I've got it down to 2, but have only backed 1. Lets start with my real good thing. Razor Royale (11/1). This is Pricewise's selection today. I'd say grrrrrr, but the price hasn't changed at the moment. It was 11/1 with Coral last night and is still 11/1 with 2 bookies at the moment. I may have a win only bet as I hate backing at less than 12/1 (its just my e/w minimum)... Typical.. all the 11/1 has gone now BP 10/1. This horse loves the course, will get the diestance and loves the rain. The fact that it seems to be drying out isn't good, but its still soft and thats good enough for him. The horse I'm backing e/w is Hold Em (14/1, SJ, tote, Boyle, Coral, spbet). 3rd in the Paddy Power (Poquelin beat him in the run in) he should benefit from that run and with a better jumping round will go close.
Doncaster 2.45
My Petra has to prove something to me now. I'm taking her on with Arcalis (16/1, SJ, Coral, WH). Now I don't usually like backing those top weights, but Arcalis has a few things in his favour. The RP doesn't fancy it (hohoho), he'll like the ground, in fact he'll love the ground and he does act after a break. Obviously there are 2 things going against him... He' did bugger all last season and secondly, I'm tipping him.....
All in all, I'm doing shit and need a result today. But I won't give up as that's when I'll miss out.
Quick note about The Morning Line this morning..... What Johnny Francome thinks he's doing (and Tanya as well) recomending backing e/w in 7 runner races is suicidal... Good old Barry and McCrirrick for slagging them off....
If you want to back a horse in a 7 runner race each-way. You are backing it to win and backing it to finish 2nd. If you don't think it will win, go and find the winner. If you think it will finish 2nd, do an exacta/Forecast with the horse(s) you think will beat it. If you think it will win, go and back it on the nose. It really is that simple.... You are only getting 1/4 odds on it finishing 2nd.
see you next saturday.
Saturday 12 December 2009
Saturday 28 November 2009
Hennnnnessssey day.
Have to say I'm more than happy with last weeks bets. All got placed. Just a quick rant on the Racing Post again.. A great publication.... The public just follow it blindly.... hehehe... Red Maloney, ran superbly last week for 3rd and was travelling really well. Gerald Delamere (he's been around in racing about 160 years...) wrote last saturday. "Red Maloney..... isn't an obvious candidate for a longer trip". The RP Spotlight, Richard Austen, added "...and this longer trip seems more of an obvious benefit to his rivals."
Cheers chaps for your insight.. Keeps the price nice and high so the mug punters don't back it... Keep up the good work.... The superb Rob Wright, tipped Red Maloney in his column.. (He's not superb coz he agrees with me btw). He tips up some big priced winners as well. Also Templegate in the Sun has changed from Phil Logan to Steve Jones, so bear that in mind if you follow the Sun. I may keep an eye on him.. Logan seemed to go off the boil recently after winning the RP Tipster 3-4 years ago. He went through the card a couple of times a while back, even I couldn't do that.
While I'm so busy, there will be limited time for posts. When I'm not working, I'm working on my new house and time is short. Saturdays are the best days for betting and I'll try to put up bets when the mighty Bees are at home (otherwise at work). You can follow the blog so you should get an update when there's a new post.
Today is Hennessey day at Newbury. There are 3 I fancy against the field. Nothing shocking but What A Friend (8/1) and Barbers Shop (6/1) have all the trends in their favour and both should go close. At an e/w price, State Of Play (14/1) looks a bit of value. The former winner is a classy horse.
In the 2.05, Akilak looked value at the 16/1 available last night, but is now 12/1 and getting shorter on the time, 12/1 is on the edge of value but should start 8 or 9/1.
1.00 Kawagino was forecast at 33/1 at sportinglife.com.. Shame he isn't that today. 14/1 is best price. About right, but I've still backed him, but i'd really tip him if he was the 33s.
So not too much today especially as they've all been backed into 'normal' prices, so don't do your bollocks...
ttfn
VH
Cheers chaps for your insight.. Keeps the price nice and high so the mug punters don't back it... Keep up the good work.... The superb Rob Wright, tipped Red Maloney in his column.. (He's not superb coz he agrees with me btw). He tips up some big priced winners as well. Also Templegate in the Sun has changed from Phil Logan to Steve Jones, so bear that in mind if you follow the Sun. I may keep an eye on him.. Logan seemed to go off the boil recently after winning the RP Tipster 3-4 years ago. He went through the card a couple of times a while back, even I couldn't do that.
While I'm so busy, there will be limited time for posts. When I'm not working, I'm working on my new house and time is short. Saturdays are the best days for betting and I'll try to put up bets when the mighty Bees are at home (otherwise at work). You can follow the blog so you should get an update when there's a new post.
Today is Hennessey day at Newbury. There are 3 I fancy against the field. Nothing shocking but What A Friend (8/1) and Barbers Shop (6/1) have all the trends in their favour and both should go close. At an e/w price, State Of Play (14/1) looks a bit of value. The former winner is a classy horse.
In the 2.05, Akilak looked value at the 16/1 available last night, but is now 12/1 and getting shorter on the time, 12/1 is on the edge of value but should start 8 or 9/1.
1.00 Kawagino was forecast at 33/1 at sportinglife.com.. Shame he isn't that today. 14/1 is best price. About right, but I've still backed him, but i'd really tip him if he was the 33s.
So not too much today especially as they've all been backed into 'normal' prices, so don't do your bollocks...
ttfn
VH
Saturday 21 November 2009
So sorry for the gap... Lots of stuff on..... Gonna be the same I'm afraid even though we've tons of great racing on.
I'm gonna put up a couple today at big prices.
Haydock
2.20
I can't really belive that Lysander is 16/1 (general). I have to say that Burton Port (4/1f) and Diamond Harry (5/1) are cracking horses. Harry lost his unbeaten record at Cheltenham afyer racking up 6 in a row. There will be more to come. Burton won a good race last week at Bangor and is the early morning steamer (from 11/2). Lysander won last month at Aintree and this is his trip. One negative is his performance in large fields. Ideally he wants about 8-10 runners to see him at his best, but has won in a bigger field too.
Ascot
2.35
This looks on paper to be all about Zaynar (7/4f) and Karabak (3/1). I like Zaynar but it's asking a lot for a 4yo to give weight to older rivals. Karabak is much more interesting, and I'd rather be on his side. Katchit (11/2) looks past his best. Lough Derg (16/1) must be past it as well now. Time For Rupert (20/1) look like he want's further but is worth watching in the market. The horse I like will easily sneak under the radar and I can't imagine will start any shorter than 20/1... is Red Maloney (25/1, Ladbrokes, Boylesports). Now on the bare facts this looks a frivolous call, but he has a couple of things going for him. Hes crying out for a step up from 2m and he wants to go right-handed. And he's had a run this season. I'm on and am hoping for some place money.
Kempton
6.00
Yummy, dodgy twiglet racing at Kempton... My favourite. Gonna tip up Capone (12/1). Much better than his grade 5 wins, not good enough for grade 3 LTO, grade 4 might be perfect. Plonked on the AW might not be to his liking, but this distance is. Small stakes recommended as this usually guarantees a win after the blowouts above.
I'm gonna put up a couple today at big prices.
Haydock
2.20
I can't really belive that Lysander is 16/1 (general). I have to say that Burton Port (4/1f) and Diamond Harry (5/1) are cracking horses. Harry lost his unbeaten record at Cheltenham afyer racking up 6 in a row. There will be more to come. Burton won a good race last week at Bangor and is the early morning steamer (from 11/2). Lysander won last month at Aintree and this is his trip. One negative is his performance in large fields. Ideally he wants about 8-10 runners to see him at his best, but has won in a bigger field too.
Ascot
2.35
This looks on paper to be all about Zaynar (7/4f) and Karabak (3/1). I like Zaynar but it's asking a lot for a 4yo to give weight to older rivals. Karabak is much more interesting, and I'd rather be on his side. Katchit (11/2) looks past his best. Lough Derg (16/1) must be past it as well now. Time For Rupert (20/1) look like he want's further but is worth watching in the market. The horse I like will easily sneak under the radar and I can't imagine will start any shorter than 20/1... is Red Maloney (25/1, Ladbrokes, Boylesports). Now on the bare facts this looks a frivolous call, but he has a couple of things going for him. Hes crying out for a step up from 2m and he wants to go right-handed. And he's had a run this season. I'm on and am hoping for some place money.
Kempton
6.00
Yummy, dodgy twiglet racing at Kempton... My favourite. Gonna tip up Capone (12/1). Much better than his grade 5 wins, not good enough for grade 3 LTO, grade 4 might be perfect. Plonked on the AW might not be to his liking, but this distance is. Small stakes recommended as this usually guarantees a win after the blowouts above.
Friday 2 October 2009
Hello Again... Hello
Hasn't been much around to be honest and it's been a busy time for me when there is with work and all.
Bet today I hope I've struck gold, Nevada gold....
8.20 Wolverhampton
Nevada Desert (20/1, Ladbrokes, William Hill).... This horse has been doing crap in higher grades and now is running in C5 and dropping down the handicap (hmmm). Has a real chance here (well 20/1 is massive, I'm thinking 6/1 or 7/1) Get on while you can.
Bet today I hope I've struck gold, Nevada gold....
8.20 Wolverhampton
Nevada Desert (20/1, Ladbrokes, William Hill).... This horse has been doing crap in higher grades and now is running in C5 and dropping down the handicap (hmmm). Has a real chance here (well 20/1 is massive, I'm thinking 6/1 or 7/1) Get on while you can.
Wednesday 16 September 2009
Nick Pullen
Months ago, I signed up to Nick Pullen's newletters, 3-4 times a week, he'll look for an edge and recommends strategies to follow.
On the 11th of August, he recommended 2 horsees to follow having spotted them run well from bad draws in the Stewards Cup. They were Brave Prospector and Striking Spirit.
With Brave Prospector, Nick told us to look for him coming back off a run within about 3 weeks over 6f in handicaps, running on good or soft ground and in a decent sized field. At York, Brave Prospector was 16th/17 over 5f. His next run was 24 days later at Doncaster @ 6 1/2f (on GF) and he hacked up at 16/1.
Of course I completely forgot about this until Nick reminded me and so I wasn't on.
Striking Spirit is trained by handicap sprint king Dandy Nicholls and will prefer firmer ground. He's run twice since and hasn't got any place money.. YET.
Both these horses are running in the Ayr Gold cup on saturday and could possibly win at big prices. I will keep an eye on things.
Nicks also given some stats on laying Tony McCoy mounts (at less than 4/1) to guarantee a profit regardless and earmarked following Nigel Twiston-Davies in September/October at Perth, Market Rasen and Warwick.
Since 2003 he has the following stats:
Nick's newletters can be signed up here at:
http://www.horseracingfocus.co.uk/
Happy Punting
On the 11th of August, he recommended 2 horsees to follow having spotted them run well from bad draws in the Stewards Cup. They were Brave Prospector and Striking Spirit.
With Brave Prospector, Nick told us to look for him coming back off a run within about 3 weeks over 6f in handicaps, running on good or soft ground and in a decent sized field. At York, Brave Prospector was 16th/17 over 5f. His next run was 24 days later at Doncaster @ 6 1/2f (on GF) and he hacked up at 16/1.
Of course I completely forgot about this until Nick reminded me and so I wasn't on.
Striking Spirit is trained by handicap sprint king Dandy Nicholls and will prefer firmer ground. He's run twice since and hasn't got any place money.. YET.
Both these horses are running in the Ayr Gold cup on saturday and could possibly win at big prices. I will keep an eye on things.
Nicks also given some stats on laying Tony McCoy mounts (at less than 4/1) to guarantee a profit regardless and earmarked following Nigel Twiston-Davies in September/October at Perth, Market Rasen and Warwick.
Since 2003 he has the following stats:
| Course | R | W | SR% | £1 |
| Perth | 125 | 41 | 32.8 | 44.05 |
| Warwick | 103 | 24 | 23.3 | 46.85 |
| M Rasen | 67 | 21 | 31.3 | 52.98 |
Nick's newletters can be signed up here at:
http://www.horseracingfocus.co.uk/
Happy Punting
wednesday value
3.55 Yarmouth
Angel Rock (18/1, bluesq) At his best trip of a mile and back down in grade, he should go close. Has won on Good-Firm, but wouldn't be unhindered by some rain.
Angel Rock (18/1, bluesq) At his best trip of a mile and back down in grade, he should go close. Has won on Good-Firm, but wouldn't be unhindered by some rain.
Friday 4 September 2009
but that's not the point
Northern Spy was punted into 13/2ish and finished a never nearer 5th/6th. Got it right but the horse didn't know.
Wotchalike was not good shall I say... Steer clear of those short-priced types :-)
2 for today. I backed Gasparilla @ 40/1 the other day and she did me proud, finishing 5th by a short thing in a Nursery. Yes, she didn't get me any cash but that's not the point. She's going to win one, one day and she's turned out quickly on the AW at Kempton tonight. The 6.20 to be exact, well she's got to get her beauty sleep.... 25/1 with my favourite bookies, Bet365 and Stan James.
The 2nd bet is Jabal Tariq (12/1 general) in the 8.50. Admittedly this is asking more than he's offered before and Barry doesn't have one of his sons on board, but this doesn't look particularly strong. I'm definitely going to be unhappy if he's not in the top 4...... (yes I know it only pays top 3... but THAT'S NOT THE POINT...)
Wotchalike was not good shall I say... Steer clear of those short-priced types :-)
2 for today. I backed Gasparilla @ 40/1 the other day and she did me proud, finishing 5th by a short thing in a Nursery. Yes, she didn't get me any cash but that's not the point. She's going to win one, one day and she's turned out quickly on the AW at Kempton tonight. The 6.20 to be exact, well she's got to get her beauty sleep.... 25/1 with my favourite bookies, Bet365 and Stan James.
The 2nd bet is Jabal Tariq (12/1 general) in the 8.50. Admittedly this is asking more than he's offered before and Barry doesn't have one of his sons on board, but this doesn't look particularly strong. I'm definitely going to be unhappy if he's not in the top 4...... (yes I know it only pays top 3... but THAT'S NOT THE POINT...)
Monday 31 August 2009
yowzers
Bingo... we had a winner in Diaweitza on saturday. King's Colour won from the 'wrong side' as well but we didn't back it. The 3rd selection was a non-runner. Hope you had a win trixie on that.... lol
Today there's lots of racing and I'm only going to root out the cream of the crop today (as always)
Epsom Downs
2.35 Northern Spy (16/1, Stan James) seems to like it around Epsom. He won here in July and am happy to recommend him again on good-firm today. He's drawn well and I expect a good run.
Cartmel
5.15 Wotchalike (7/2) looks a good bet in the last at Cartmel. His only challenger in my book is a non-runner, so 7/2 looks a good price.
have a successful Bank Holiday monday.
VH
Today there's lots of racing and I'm only going to root out the cream of the crop today (as always)
Epsom Downs
2.35 Northern Spy (16/1, Stan James) seems to like it around Epsom. He won here in July and am happy to recommend him again on good-firm today. He's drawn well and I expect a good run.
Cartmel
5.15 Wotchalike (7/2) looks a good bet in the last at Cartmel. His only challenger in my book is a non-runner, so 7/2 looks a good price.
have a successful Bank Holiday monday.
VH
Saturday 29 August 2009
Saturdays quickie
Mr Plod wasn't backed. Seb did ok with him, but wilted towards the end. May have a race in him later on.
Some nice bets today, but will stick with the 2 I fancy most.
Redcar 520
Daaweitza (16/1, vcbet, bet365) steps up in trip but down in class today. He has been running over 6f, which isn't his trip and now runs at 1m2f today. His best distance is around 1m, but may want this step up.
Windsor 5.10
Hannicean 20/1 (boylesports). I was going to back this at 14/1. Now 20/1 with Boylesports, which is ridiculous. I'll leave off backing yet so you get the price. Very similar to Daaweitza at Redcar, in that he's stepping up in trip today looking for an edge. Steadily getting better today and his price is too large here.
Goodwood 4.55
I also want to back King's Colour @ 14/1. However he's not well drawn but it is worth watching his performance on the other side. If he's doing well there he'll be worth backing over 7f next time.
Football treble:
Dagenham 10/11 - Notts County evs - Charlton 5/4
Enjoy.
Some nice bets today, but will stick with the 2 I fancy most.
Redcar 520
Daaweitza (16/1, vcbet, bet365) steps up in trip but down in class today. He has been running over 6f, which isn't his trip and now runs at 1m2f today. His best distance is around 1m, but may want this step up.
Windsor 5.10
Hannicean 20/1 (boylesports). I was going to back this at 14/1. Now 20/1 with Boylesports, which is ridiculous. I'll leave off backing yet so you get the price. Very similar to Daaweitza at Redcar, in that he's stepping up in trip today looking for an edge. Steadily getting better today and his price is too large here.
Goodwood 4.55
I also want to back King's Colour @ 14/1. However he's not well drawn but it is worth watching his performance on the other side. If he's doing well there he'll be worth backing over 7f next time.
Football treble:
Dagenham 10/11 - Notts County evs - Charlton 5/4
Enjoy.
Monday 24 August 2009
Quick one
This is an emergency post
Kempton 4.10
Horse called Mr Plod. 66/1 (Paddypower, 50/1 general). This is a 50/1 shot after all, but its very overpriced and hopefully it can run into a place. New trainer today and has first-time cheek-pieces. Worth a dabble methinks. Obviously its not a mortgage jobbie, but I expect it to start a bit shorter than this.
Kempton 4.10
Horse called Mr Plod. 66/1 (Paddypower, 50/1 general). This is a 50/1 shot after all, but its very overpriced and hopefully it can run into a place. New trainer today and has first-time cheek-pieces. Worth a dabble methinks. Obviously its not a mortgage jobbie, but I expect it to start a bit shorter than this.
Tuesday 18 August 2009
RP rant part 1172
Still no PC sorted. Shame as I'd have had some good results....
This is from the Racing Post Spotlight on saturday.
"Long-standing maiden on the Flat and six hurdles outings do not suggest things will be much different over jumps; coming down the weights and drops significantly in trip, but easily opposed."
Semi-Detatched was freely available at 40/1 from Stan James in the morning.... and won at 11/1.
Don't EVER let the Racing Post put you off.... In fact you'll get a better price because of it.
This is from the Racing Post Spotlight on saturday.
"Long-standing maiden on the Flat and six hurdles outings do not suggest things will be much different over jumps; coming down the weights and drops significantly in trip, but easily opposed."
Semi-Detatched was freely available at 40/1 from Stan James in the morning.... and won at 11/1.
Don't EVER let the Racing Post put you off.... In fact you'll get a better price because of it.
Thursday 30 July 2009
Goodwood on thursday
not bad using the draw stats on tuesday. I made an error in one. Manyriverstocross won from a 'bad draw' but it was 1m4f and didn't matter. Whoopsie...
Goodwood
2.10 High draw is best. Stall 10 and upwards I think. The top 4 in the betting are all on this side. Mirrored (4/1f), Roman Republic (6/1), Hyades (8/1) and Set The Trend (12/1, Stan James).
2.45
Borderlescott (7/2f) is drawn well and should challenge. Ialysos (7/1) the Greek freak is also on that side. Can't have Kingsgate Native. My e/w money is going on the Hills/Hills pairing on Equiano (20/1, spbet, PP, Sky, Bluesq).
3.25
Fav Schiaparelli looks not great value here and i'm looking to take it on. Caracciola could be the one at 8/1, however Friston Forest offers the most value at 14/1 with Betfred.
4.00
Nothing stands out in this.
4.35
High draw is best in this... means you should oppose Shamwari Lodge and Infiraad.
5.10
High draw again. 2yo race. 2 favs look ok, but I wouldn't touch them with the proverbial stolen money.
5.45
Big sprint. Not too high a draw here. High but not right out on the rail. Go to the pub.....
Epsom
5.55
Calculating (16/1, general) is a little too big in this. Has form up to 2m and also at 1m6. This should still be ok for him. Hasn't won on the turf is a worry though.
Goodwood
2.10 High draw is best. Stall 10 and upwards I think. The top 4 in the betting are all on this side. Mirrored (4/1f), Roman Republic (6/1), Hyades (8/1) and Set The Trend (12/1, Stan James).
2.45
Borderlescott (7/2f) is drawn well and should challenge. Ialysos (7/1) the Greek freak is also on that side. Can't have Kingsgate Native. My e/w money is going on the Hills/Hills pairing on Equiano (20/1, spbet, PP, Sky, Bluesq).
3.25
Fav Schiaparelli looks not great value here and i'm looking to take it on. Caracciola could be the one at 8/1, however Friston Forest offers the most value at 14/1 with Betfred.
4.00
Nothing stands out in this.
4.35
High draw is best in this... means you should oppose Shamwari Lodge and Infiraad.
5.10
High draw again. 2yo race. 2 favs look ok, but I wouldn't touch them with the proverbial stolen money.
5.45
Big sprint. Not too high a draw here. High but not right out on the rail. Go to the pub.....
Epsom
5.55
Calculating (16/1, general) is a little too big in this. Has form up to 2m and also at 1m6. This should still be ok for him. Hasn't won on the turf is a worry though.
Tuesday 28 July 2009
Glorious
Goodwood is here... fantastic.... 5 days to do your dough. Seriously. Royal Ascot was about 2 weeks long... I was punting everyday. I lost. I don't make the same mistake at GG.
There are some pointers in the draw at Goodwood, especially over the shorter distances. Basically you need to be drawn high. Low drawn horses have awful records. I will put a few horses down on here but I don't think I'll be betting today.
Munsef won @ 8/1 (from 12s). Very nice race and never gave up. Charlie Cool was 6th, but it was too hot for him, look out if he runs in a lower grade.
Goodwood
2.10
Favoured horses drawn well: Alfathaa (7/1) and William Blake (9/1).
Favoured horses drawn badly: Royal Destination (5/1f) and Sweet Lighning (7/1).
2.45
No draw bias, but Harbinger (9/4f) looks very opposable.
3.25
Main Aim (6/4f) drawn in 1 and JJ The Jet Plane (7/2) drawn in 2. Not good, but they are better than most of the rest and its an 8 runner race.
4.00 Monsieur Chevalier(4/5f) is drawn well (in 10) and is a class apart. Archers Road (20/1) is also drawn well and in any other race would be a lot shorter. He can't beat the favourite, but can get a place.
4.35
Favoured horses drawn well: Cool Strike (11/2f) and Yes Mr President (7/1).
Favoured horses drawn badly: Manyriverstocross (15/2) and Waldvogel (8/1).
Drill Seargent (14/1) is drawn well and could also run a good race.
5.10
Favoured horses drawn well: Wellington Place (15/2f), Mister Dee Bee (8/1 and The Witch Doctor (8/1).
Favoured horses drawn badly: Mujood (8/1)
Ellemujie (16/1) and Marajaa (14/1) are also drawn well.
5.45
2yo race. The way is to lay the favourite here. Though Lowdown isn't the worst favourite i've seen in a 2yo race.
Rushed today. next update (possible evening bets tomorrow) thursday
There are some pointers in the draw at Goodwood, especially over the shorter distances. Basically you need to be drawn high. Low drawn horses have awful records. I will put a few horses down on here but I don't think I'll be betting today.
Munsef won @ 8/1 (from 12s). Very nice race and never gave up. Charlie Cool was 6th, but it was too hot for him, look out if he runs in a lower grade.
Goodwood
2.10
Favoured horses drawn well: Alfathaa (7/1) and William Blake (9/1).
Favoured horses drawn badly: Royal Destination (5/1f) and Sweet Lighning (7/1).
2.45
No draw bias, but Harbinger (9/4f) looks very opposable.
3.25
Main Aim (6/4f) drawn in 1 and JJ The Jet Plane (7/2) drawn in 2. Not good, but they are better than most of the rest and its an 8 runner race.
4.00 Monsieur Chevalier(4/5f) is drawn well (in 10) and is a class apart. Archers Road (20/1) is also drawn well and in any other race would be a lot shorter. He can't beat the favourite, but can get a place.
4.35
Favoured horses drawn well: Cool Strike (11/2f) and Yes Mr President (7/1).
Favoured horses drawn badly: Manyriverstocross (15/2) and Waldvogel (8/1).
Drill Seargent (14/1) is drawn well and could also run a good race.
5.10
Favoured horses drawn well: Wellington Place (15/2f), Mister Dee Bee (8/1 and The Witch Doctor (8/1).
Favoured horses drawn badly: Mujood (8/1)
Ellemujie (16/1) and Marajaa (14/1) are also drawn well.
5.45
2yo race. The way is to lay the favourite here. Though Lowdown isn't the worst favourite i've seen in a 2yo race.
Rushed today. next update (possible evening bets tomorrow) thursday
Sunday 26 July 2009
Charlie Cool.... tidy
Friday was ok....
Scotch Corner was punted into 6/1 and finished 2nd by a short head, looked beat with 1/2 furlong to go and got back up well. Would have won with another 20yds.
Falcon's Tribute never looked like winning but someone pressed the wrong button on Betfair and hoovered up all my lays so a small profit was gleaned.
Gosforth Park - NR
Dirar wonnd beat Lord Baskerville into 2nd place, so a small profit made in this.
Good Gorsoon was 4th, typically.
Today looks a good day. I've whittled it down to 2 bets. There is a lot of value around, but I don't want to waffle on for hours.
Ascot 4.35 Munsef (12/1, betfred) is a consistant type and its not the greatest price going for a 15 runner handicap. 2008 was pretty disappointing but has bounced back well this year with a good 2nd at Haydock LTO. Definitely don't take less than the 12/1.
Pontefract 3.50 Another good race where 'anything' can win. Perks (7/2) and Orizaba (2/1f)
look strong for this, but Bet365 have offered Charlie Cool @ 25/1. Unbelievable price. Should come on for his run in June (1st race for 20 months) and hopefully back to his 2007 form, where he won a Class 2 and was placed twice in Class 1s.
Racing Post Update: Corner shop ran out today, do I, don't I.... arggggh.... 25p a day..... hmmmmmm.
Scotch Corner was punted into 6/1 and finished 2nd by a short head, looked beat with 1/2 furlong to go and got back up well. Would have won with another 20yds.
Falcon's Tribute never looked like winning but someone pressed the wrong button on Betfair and hoovered up all my lays so a small profit was gleaned.
Gosforth Park - NR
Dirar wonnd beat Lord Baskerville into 2nd place, so a small profit made in this.
Good Gorsoon was 4th, typically.
Today looks a good day. I've whittled it down to 2 bets. There is a lot of value around, but I don't want to waffle on for hours.
Ascot 4.35 Munsef (12/1, betfred) is a consistant type and its not the greatest price going for a 15 runner handicap. 2008 was pretty disappointing but has bounced back well this year with a good 2nd at Haydock LTO. Definitely don't take less than the 12/1.
Pontefract 3.50 Another good race where 'anything' can win. Perks (7/2) and Orizaba (2/1f)
look strong for this, but Bet365 have offered Charlie Cool @ 25/1. Unbelievable price. Should come on for his run in June (1st race for 20 months) and hopefully back to his 2007 form, where he won a Class 2 and was placed twice in Class 1s.
Racing Post Update: Corner shop ran out today, do I, don't I.... arggggh.... 25p a day..... hmmmmmm.
Friday 24 July 2009
Friday Fun
Iris's Flyer didn't do the business... drifted to 20/1 in fact. Not happy about that. More signs that the Racing Post is the devil incarnate. No winners since it introduced it's members club. I will not kowtow down to these cyberbullies. I don't want pricewise and I certainly don't want the other twats opinions on horses, I don't want spotlight (although I readi t for fits and giggles), the post-data is useful-ish. I do like using their lifetime form and reading through the results and getting a feel for the nag I'm going to back. I am weakening though... I almost gave in today, but have to be strong..... give me a 50p for the day option and i'll succumb.
Today is another of those millionaire or bust days..... not enough time for a complete breakdown of the recommended bets. As Gordon Gecko meant to say.... Breakeven is good.
Southwell 2.15 Scotch Corner @ 20/1 (PP, Hills, Skybet, totesport) Done nothing so far but this is weaker looking than some of his races. 20/1 looks big and might be worth looking him up.
Southwell 3.25 Falcon's Tribute @ 20/1 (sportingbet, Hills) Can't get on at either so I can't bet here, however there's no reason why Falcon's Tribute is 20/1.
Thirsk 3.40 Gosforth Park @ 40/1 (vcbet, SJ, Ladbrokes) Overpriced, if he gets a place I'll be more than happy.
Southwell 5.10 Newgate @ 20/1 (Totesport, SJ, sportingbet) and Lord Baskerville @ 20/1 (Coral, Bet365, PP) are viable e/w alternatives to Dirar (won last night). One should place, trouble is which one??? Split stakes here.
Newmarket 7.40 Good Gorsoon @ 14/1 (Coral) One of my stronger e/w bets. Racing above his station recenty, down in Class 3 he's got a good chance at a nice price.
And now it's pissing down outside, oh well, bets are already on.
Today is another of those millionaire or bust days..... not enough time for a complete breakdown of the recommended bets. As Gordon Gecko meant to say.... Breakeven is good.
Southwell 2.15 Scotch Corner @ 20/1 (PP, Hills, Skybet, totesport) Done nothing so far but this is weaker looking than some of his races. 20/1 looks big and might be worth looking him up.
Southwell 3.25 Falcon's Tribute @ 20/1 (sportingbet, Hills) Can't get on at either so I can't bet here, however there's no reason why Falcon's Tribute is 20/1.
Thirsk 3.40 Gosforth Park @ 40/1 (vcbet, SJ, Ladbrokes) Overpriced, if he gets a place I'll be more than happy.
Southwell 5.10 Newgate @ 20/1 (Totesport, SJ, sportingbet) and Lord Baskerville @ 20/1 (Coral, Bet365, PP) are viable e/w alternatives to Dirar (won last night). One should place, trouble is which one??? Split stakes here.
Newmarket 7.40 Good Gorsoon @ 14/1 (Coral) One of my stronger e/w bets. Racing above his station recenty, down in Class 3 he's got a good chance at a nice price.
And now it's pissing down outside, oh well, bets are already on.
Tuesday 21 July 2009
I thought Ray Of Joy ran decently last night, led til the final furlong and in a bunch finish managed 6th. Happy with the run, not much money for it though.
Had backed Hallingdal previously, and he's failed to deliver again. Was kept out the back and looked to be running on late, so the 1m2f was ok. I'll weight up whether he's worth putting up here again.
Bangor-On-Dee
9.00 Tonight Iris's Flyer looks a big old price. 14/1 around with the usual guaranteed odds firms (SJ and bet365). Won at Southwell in April and fell on his last run.
Had backed Hallingdal previously, and he's failed to deliver again. Was kept out the back and looked to be running on late, so the 1m2f was ok. I'll weight up whether he's worth putting up here again.
Bangor-On-Dee
9.00 Tonight Iris's Flyer looks a big old price. 14/1 around with the usual guaranteed odds firms (SJ and bet365). Won at Southwell in April and fell on his last run.
Monday 20 July 2009
2 late ones
Just back from a relaxing break from it all..... A very profitable punting weekend.... yup I didn't have a bet..... With all that rain around and horses coming out of races every which way, any value bets were undone by rule 4 and the like. We can start the new week refreshed coz last week was pants, big style. The cricket has been pretty good though and England have beaten the Aussies at Lord's for the first time since 1934. (No Ashes editorial this week has failed to mention this.... boring farts). Anyways back to the old 'orses.
I've just had a quick browse of tonights cards and 2 horses stand out:
Windsor
7.50 Ray Of Joy (22/1, vcbet) is overpriced (of course). Has been running well on the AW and needs to improve on his turf form, but is in decent form. His record on the sand is W2, Pl4 Unpl 1 from 7 runs. Just a 3rd from his 5 turf runs.
8.50 Hallingdal (20/1 bet365) seems to save his best for Windsor and is worth siding with here. Should be suited by 1m2f. This is probably the better bet of the two. Bet365 are out of line here.
Good luck..
I've just had a quick browse of tonights cards and 2 horses stand out:
Windsor
7.50 Ray Of Joy (22/1, vcbet) is overpriced (of course). Has been running well on the AW and needs to improve on his turf form, but is in decent form. His record on the sand is W2, Pl4 Unpl 1 from 7 runs. Just a 3rd from his 5 turf runs.
8.50 Hallingdal (20/1 bet365) seems to save his best for Windsor and is worth siding with here. Should be suited by 1m2f. This is probably the better bet of the two. Bet365 are out of line here.
Good luck..
Thursday 16 July 2009
Still Alive
Managed a small profit with Midnight Gold winning, no others got placed.
The first race of the day offers us some each way thievery.
Cartmel
2.00 Lake Wakatipu (11/8f) should have won last time and should be on a hat-trick today, however he managed to throw his jockey off when all set. He's a worthy favourite. However there is a little value in picking out Elusive Swallow (25/1) to get a place. His 2 races so far have been over fences and he's not set the world alight with 2 4ths. 3m looked too far over the jumps and 21/2$ m on the short side. 2m6f over hurdles could light his fire and he could be a steal here.
Epsom
8.20 Stanley Goodspeed (10/1, betfred) is another that is overpriced. 10/1 isn't an ew shot (in my book) so it may have to be on the nose. Getting some sort of form back recently with decent runs in May.
Doncaster
8.40 Tough handicap, but Huirlingham (16/1, Ladbrokes, Skybet) looks overpriced. This race should suit him and so should the ground which he hasn't had since a 4th at Nottingham.
Cricket
The 2nd Test starts today. It's still 0-0 thanks to the bowlers. England will need to bat a lot better on a good batting pitch and bowl 100 times better here. I expect Flintoff (injured) and Panesar (pants) to drop out. That means they may play 6 batsmen (I hope not) or Onions, swing king and headline-writers dream (there's definitely 2 more Tests in them anyway) . Harmison is a shoo-in judging by the pie-chuckers of the 1st test. I'm hoping that Swann and Broad batting at 7 and 8 will be good enough....... ANYWAYS....... BARMY ARMY... BARMY ARMY *hic*
WSOP Main Event
I have a small problem. The 'November 9' are now set after 8 days of hard graft. It looks a great final table with the UK's James Akenhead, who got really unlucky to lose to Grant Hinkle http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fRaTnpd9mE and Jeff Shulman. The problem I have is a small 'fun' wager I had with a fellow contributor. He asked for 500/1 on Phil Ivey to win the Main Event. Piece of piss (66/1 was best price on t'internet) there are 6500 players after all.
Phil Ivey is one of the 'November 9'. FECK FECK FECK ........ Don't worry it's only for £2..... so I will be working doubly hard to make myself a grand in the hand here, just in case.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You work hard for 8 days, you get up to £20m in chips, one of the big stacks of the tournament and the cooler hits you full in the face...... harsh
Billy Kopp Eliminated in 12th Place ($896,730) Wow. That's a succinct description of what just happened on the secondary feature table. Billy Kopp opened for 600,000 preflop from early position and was called by the small blind, Darvin Moon. So far, so good. On a flop of 
, Moon had first action and checked. He then called when Kopp bet 750,000. Again, nothing out of the ordinary yet. It was on the turn 
where everything went haywire. Moon checked again and drew a bet of 2.0 million from Kopp. Moon then check-raised to 6.0 million. Improbably, Kopp moved all in for about 20.0 million total. Even more improbably, Moon called! Kopp: 
Moon: 
Kopp looked like he wanted to cry when he saw Moon's hand. He knew that he was drawing dead and that Moon had him covered. Kopp had more than 80 big blinds to start the hand; with the 
river he had none. He didn't even wait for the river to come out, barreling out of the secondary feature table area as fast as he could. Moon is once again the chip leader with a whopping 45.0 million chips.
The first race of the day offers us some each way thievery.
Cartmel
2.00 Lake Wakatipu (11/8f) should have won last time and should be on a hat-trick today, however he managed to throw his jockey off when all set. He's a worthy favourite. However there is a little value in picking out Elusive Swallow (25/1) to get a place. His 2 races so far have been over fences and he's not set the world alight with 2 4ths. 3m looked too far over the jumps and 21/2$ m on the short side. 2m6f over hurdles could light his fire and he could be a steal here.
Epsom
8.20 Stanley Goodspeed (10/1, betfred) is another that is overpriced. 10/1 isn't an ew shot (in my book) so it may have to be on the nose. Getting some sort of form back recently with decent runs in May.
Doncaster
8.40 Tough handicap, but Huirlingham (16/1, Ladbrokes, Skybet) looks overpriced. This race should suit him and so should the ground which he hasn't had since a 4th at Nottingham.
Cricket
The 2nd Test starts today. It's still 0-0 thanks to the bowlers. England will need to bat a lot better on a good batting pitch and bowl 100 times better here. I expect Flintoff (injured) and Panesar (pants) to drop out. That means they may play 6 batsmen (I hope not) or Onions, swing king and headline-writers dream (there's definitely 2 more Tests in them anyway) . Harmison is a shoo-in judging by the pie-chuckers of the 1st test. I'm hoping that Swann and Broad batting at 7 and 8 will be good enough....... ANYWAYS....... BARMY ARMY... BARMY ARMY *hic*
WSOP Main Event
I have a small problem. The 'November 9' are now set after 8 days of hard graft. It looks a great final table with the UK's James Akenhead, who got really unlucky to lose to Grant Hinkle http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fRaTnpd9mE and Jeff Shulman. The problem I have is a small 'fun' wager I had with a fellow contributor. He asked for 500/1 on Phil Ivey to win the Main Event. Piece of piss (66/1 was best price on t'internet) there are 6500 players after all.
Phil Ivey is one of the 'November 9'. FECK FECK FECK ........ Don't worry it's only for £2..... so I will be working doubly hard to make myself a grand in the hand here, just in case.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You work hard for 8 days, you get up to £20m in chips, one of the big stacks of the tournament and the cooler hits you full in the face...... harsh
Billy Kopp Eliminated in 12th Place ($896,730)
, Moon had first action and checked. He then called when Kopp bet 750,000. Again, nothing out of the ordinary yet. It was on the turn where everything went haywire. Moon checked again and drew a bet of 2.0 million from Kopp. Moon then check-raised to 6.0 million. Improbably, Kopp moved all in for about 20.0 million total. Even more improbably, Moon called! Kopp: Moon: Kopp looked like he wanted to cry when he saw Moon's hand. He knew that he was drawing dead and that Moon had him covered. Kopp had more than 80 big blinds to start the hand; with the river he had none. He didn't even wait for the river to come out, barreling out of the secondary feature table area as fast as he could. Moon is once again the chip leader with a whopping 45.0 million chips.
Wednesday 15 July 2009
Hmmmm
Not particularly happy with yesterday...... I gave 3 tips, only 1 placed (Kalasam). Monte Pattino ran his race, went for it 4f out and faded. Highly Acclaimed was in the top 4 but never was going to get a place.
The problem was I could have given 4 more tips and 3 of them won (the other was beaten by a head) .... No I didn't back them either. 7 bets on a tuesday is a bit much.
No I'm on betting tilt....... I wasn't going to put up any selections today, but have had a strop and backed 7... No reasons, no rivals no nothing, just 7 picks that won't win......
TILT BET 1 Uttoxeter 3.10 Psychiatrist @ 14/1 (Boylesports, Sportingbet, VCbet, Stan James)
TILT BET 2 Uttoxeter 4.10 Midnight Gold @ 14/1 (Coral, William Hill)
TILT BET 3 Uttoxeter 4.40 Photogenique @ 12/1 (Bet365, Boylesports, vcbet, PaddyPower, Ladbrokes)
TILT BET 4 Worcester 6.40 Alfie's Isle @ 12/1 (Totesport, vcbet, Coral)
TILT BET 5 Kempton 6.50 Shark Man @ 14/1 (Stan James)
TILT BET 6 Kempton 7.50 Ocean Legend @ 12/1 (spbet, vcbet, Coral, Stan James, Skybet)
TILT BET 7 Kempton 9.20 Sew'n'So Character @ 16/1 (vcbet)
Fingers crossed I get my money back.......
The problem was I could have given 4 more tips and 3 of them won (the other was beaten by a head) .... No I didn't back them either. 7 bets on a tuesday is a bit much.
No I'm on betting tilt....... I wasn't going to put up any selections today, but have had a strop and backed 7... No reasons, no rivals no nothing, just 7 picks that won't win......
TILT BET 1 Uttoxeter 3.10 Psychiatrist @ 14/1 (Boylesports, Sportingbet, VCbet, Stan James)
TILT BET 2 Uttoxeter 4.10 Midnight Gold @ 14/1 (Coral, William Hill)
TILT BET 3 Uttoxeter 4.40 Photogenique @ 12/1 (Bet365, Boylesports, vcbet, PaddyPower, Ladbrokes)
TILT BET 4 Worcester 6.40 Alfie's Isle @ 12/1 (Totesport, vcbet, Coral)
TILT BET 5 Kempton 6.50 Shark Man @ 14/1 (Stan James)
TILT BET 6 Kempton 7.50 Ocean Legend @ 12/1 (spbet, vcbet, Coral, Stan James, Skybet)
TILT BET 7 Kempton 9.20 Sew'n'So Character @ 16/1 (vcbet)
Fingers crossed I get my money back.......
Tuesday 14 July 2009
Tuesday update
Beverley 5.45
I've decide to add Kalasam (12/1, betfred, sportingbet, Coral) to the mix. 15 runner handicap, and top weight, however he's been running well over a mile and drops down to C6 today. Has drifted on course in his last 3 runs and I think he has an excellent chance here. Downside is the weight he's giving to all, but he's better than these IMHO. Bookies may have been too generous here.
I've decide to add Kalasam (12/1, betfred, sportingbet, Coral) to the mix. 15 runner handicap, and top weight, however he's been running well over a mile and drops down to C6 today. Has drifted on course in his last 3 runs and I think he has an excellent chance here. Downside is the weight he's giving to all, but he's better than these IMHO. Bookies may have been too generous here.
Must do better
Sunday was one of those days where I was trying to find a winner, in stead of one jumping out at me. The only selection I was happy with was That Man Fox who's type has won these races before. One of the 3 favs came out leaving 7 runners and our horse was backed (after the rule4) but ultimately blew up.
I couldn't place Thunder Rock at a distance I was confident he'd do well at, however the market backed him into 13/2 and I just had a feeling that he was in for a reason. He was out the back which I wasn't too happy about and was just about to push on in the back straight before a slow jump dropped him back. An average one at the next and he was done for the day.
Falcon's Tribute was nibbled to 17/2 but was eased when he wasn't going to place. He'll find a better race to win than this.
Today. Bit more confident about Monte Pattino (16/1 huge!!, Stan James), he runs at Beverley's 4.15. I liked his win LTO at Musselburgh and he's now stepped up 2 grades, but they've found his trip and this doesn't look the best of C4s. The favourite still hasn't won nor run in this Class and yet is 11/4f. I like Pseudonym (5/1), but Yonder's (4/1) 2 wins were at shorter and he's unproven at 2m+.
Southwell
8.40 Highly Acclaimed (12/1, general, so bet365, Boylesports, Stan James). Run here in June seemed to perk her up from distinctly average. Steps up to 1m for the first time today which should suit, and up in Grade too. The two favourites will be up there too, but the rest are borderline crap. Interesting.
If you can get that 16/1 on Monte Pattino I reckon he'll start half that. Fingers crossed for today.
I couldn't place Thunder Rock at a distance I was confident he'd do well at, however the market backed him into 13/2 and I just had a feeling that he was in for a reason. He was out the back which I wasn't too happy about and was just about to push on in the back straight before a slow jump dropped him back. An average one at the next and he was done for the day.
Falcon's Tribute was nibbled to 17/2 but was eased when he wasn't going to place. He'll find a better race to win than this.
Today. Bit more confident about Monte Pattino (16/1 huge!!, Stan James), he runs at Beverley's 4.15. I liked his win LTO at Musselburgh and he's now stepped up 2 grades, but they've found his trip and this doesn't look the best of C4s. The favourite still hasn't won nor run in this Class and yet is 11/4f. I like Pseudonym (5/1), but Yonder's (4/1) 2 wins were at shorter and he's unproven at 2m+.
Southwell
8.40 Highly Acclaimed (12/1, general, so bet365, Boylesports, Stan James). Run here in June seemed to perk her up from distinctly average. Steps up to 1m for the first time today which should suit, and up in Grade too. The two favourites will be up there too, but the rest are borderline crap. Interesting.
If you can get that 16/1 on Monte Pattino I reckon he'll start half that. Fingers crossed for today.
Sunday 12 July 2009
Not a bad little card today at Stratford.
3.30 Thunder Rock (12/1, tote, sportingbet, coral) can't seem to find his trip or indeed his discipline. Has run well back over fences the last two times after some disappointing hurdling performances. Today he back down to 2m1f after trying trips from 2m3f to 3m3f. He'll need to be a bit closer to the action today but he's a big old price in this and I'd rather be with him than against him.
5.10 That Man Fox (22/1, sportingbet, skybet) is well overpriced in this. 8 runners so watch out for another non-runner but the bookies have missed this one off the radar. He hasn't run for a year but if he's going to land the cash this is probably the race to do it in.
Southwell
3.55 Falcon's Tribute (12/1, bet365, betfred, sportingbet) is overpriced at 12/1 in this but it is a little competative. I wasn't going to put it up but I won't be happy if she wins and I haven't put it up here. She needs to build on her penultimate start after disappointing LTO. Tentative selection.
No Ashes rant today, the scorecard says it all......
3.30 Thunder Rock (12/1, tote, sportingbet, coral) can't seem to find his trip or indeed his discipline. Has run well back over fences the last two times after some disappointing hurdling performances. Today he back down to 2m1f after trying trips from 2m3f to 3m3f. He'll need to be a bit closer to the action today but he's a big old price in this and I'd rather be with him than against him.
5.10 That Man Fox (22/1, sportingbet, skybet) is well overpriced in this. 8 runners so watch out for another non-runner but the bookies have missed this one off the radar. He hasn't run for a year but if he's going to land the cash this is probably the race to do it in.
Southwell
3.55 Falcon's Tribute (12/1, bet365, betfred, sportingbet) is overpriced at 12/1 in this but it is a little competative. I wasn't going to put it up but I won't be happy if she wins and I haven't put it up here. She needs to build on her penultimate start after disappointing LTO. Tentative selection.
No Ashes rant today, the scorecard says it all......
Saturday 11 July 2009
A Bet Free Day and Ashes Rants
Thursday's race didn't turn out as I'd hoped. Little bits of everything and lots of nothing. Arcano won (pah). Red Jazz was 3rd but not at the e/w price and Reignier was 4th... (at an e/w price). Tawaabb was the horse that was punted (12s --> 8s) but that doesn't matter as it finished 7th.
Racing Post Update:
I don't miss you at all
Today's racing is excellent, which is a shame because I can't find a tasty big priced winner for you. If in doubt leave it out and all that, let's keep our winnings for another day. And you may as well leave the Scoop 6 alone too as it won't be won this week.
The Ashes:
Can't say I'm impressed with England at all.
First of all they pick Panesar when he can't bat, field or now bowl. With Flintoff not 100% it was gonna be a risk to have only 3 seamers.
Their next faux pas was that ridiculous nightwatchman crap. Just who is he protecting?!?!?!? So Prior now has to hit boundaries coz he is protecting Anderson, when it should be the other way round and of course Prior gets out. Stupid Strauss. 400 is the MINIMUM on that pitch, 550 looks the par score and England are behind the 8 ball again. The should escape this time thanks to it being played in the wettest city in the universe however they didn't bother trying to save the Lord's Test in 2005. Do you remember play on sunday not starting til about 4pm and with dark clouds everywhere and rain set for tomorrow. England managed to lose 5 wickets in about 35 mins with some of the worst batting ever witnessed outside Frimley Green under-9's (when 3 players had Chicken-Pox), Giles and Jones being particularly dumb.
Oh where was I, that was it, moaning about English Cricket (I've just remembered another rant about the 2006-07 series - What do you mean it was never played, so we only need to draw this series to retain the Ashes then.... Sky being one of the worst culprits, and they made me stay up all night for Adelaide for that 'performance' :-) ), but anyway......
Thirdly, yes the ball was doing a bit on thursday but why oh why do England's batsman think that this is a Twenty/20 match..... This is Test cricket , the pinnacle of your life mate, stop sweeping balls that can't be swept KP and play every ball on its merits.... Hauritz is spinning the ball more on day 1 than our two will be on days 2, 3, & 4 and he's shit.
So the pitch looks benign, you wait til England bat.. The snakes in the pitch will all come out as per usual when England are in. The Aussie attack looks particularly average (but better than ours). Shame we can't concentrate for more than a session.
Rant of the Week: Shane Warne is playing in the World Series of Poker Main Event. He's dumped off 200k in chips in about an hour so he'll be back in the studio very soon. Perhaps he'll remember his history a bit better. His quote that Cardiff doesn't deserve the 1st Test *whinge*, it's traditional that it should go to Lord's *whine*. England are running scared *blah*.
Piss of Warnie... Get your facts right. Yes England haven't beaten you lot since 1934 at headquarters, yet this is the complete list of 5/6 Test Ashes series that the 1st Test has been played at Lord's:
1977
2005
THAT'S IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!..... 1 series before 2005.....
If you want I'll reel off the rest....
Nottingham 1899, 1905, 1921, 1926, 1930, 1934, 1938, 1948, 1953, 1956, 1964, 1981
Birmingham 1902, 1909, 1961, 1975, 1997, 2001
Manchester 1968, 1972, 1993
Leeds 1985, 1989.
There you go you baldie freak of nature..... *Love you really*... Just don't mess with history, especially my history....
The West Indies are on strike... Tino 'Windows' Best is leading their attack vs Banglandesh. Ho ho ho. Looks like Stanford really stuffed them over if they aren't paying their players. You wouldn't really know considering how lazy-arsed they were in the Test series vs England. By the looks of it maybe a couple of them won't get back in....
That's it for now.... ;-) *phew*
Racing Post Update:
I don't miss you at all
Today's racing is excellent, which is a shame because I can't find a tasty big priced winner for you. If in doubt leave it out and all that, let's keep our winnings for another day. And you may as well leave the Scoop 6 alone too as it won't be won this week.
The Ashes:
Can't say I'm impressed with England at all.
First of all they pick Panesar when he can't bat, field or now bowl. With Flintoff not 100% it was gonna be a risk to have only 3 seamers.
Their next faux pas was that ridiculous nightwatchman crap. Just who is he protecting?!?!?!? So Prior now has to hit boundaries coz he is protecting Anderson, when it should be the other way round and of course Prior gets out. Stupid Strauss. 400 is the MINIMUM on that pitch, 550 looks the par score and England are behind the 8 ball again. The should escape this time thanks to it being played in the wettest city in the universe however they didn't bother trying to save the Lord's Test in 2005. Do you remember play on sunday not starting til about 4pm and with dark clouds everywhere and rain set for tomorrow. England managed to lose 5 wickets in about 35 mins with some of the worst batting ever witnessed outside Frimley Green under-9's (when 3 players had Chicken-Pox), Giles and Jones being particularly dumb.
Oh where was I, that was it, moaning about English Cricket (I've just remembered another rant about the 2006-07 series - What do you mean it was never played, so we only need to draw this series to retain the Ashes then.... Sky being one of the worst culprits, and they made me stay up all night for Adelaide for that 'performance' :-) ), but anyway......
Thirdly, yes the ball was doing a bit on thursday but why oh why do England's batsman think that this is a Twenty/20 match..... This is Test cricket , the pinnacle of your life mate, stop sweeping balls that can't be swept KP and play every ball on its merits.... Hauritz is spinning the ball more on day 1 than our two will be on days 2, 3, & 4 and he's shit.
So the pitch looks benign, you wait til England bat.. The snakes in the pitch will all come out as per usual when England are in. The Aussie attack looks particularly average (but better than ours). Shame we can't concentrate for more than a session.
Rant of the Week: Shane Warne is playing in the World Series of Poker Main Event. He's dumped off 200k in chips in about an hour so he'll be back in the studio very soon. Perhaps he'll remember his history a bit better. His quote that Cardiff doesn't deserve the 1st Test *whinge*, it's traditional that it should go to Lord's *whine*. England are running scared *blah*.
Piss of Warnie... Get your facts right. Yes England haven't beaten you lot since 1934 at headquarters, yet this is the complete list of 5/6 Test Ashes series that the 1st Test has been played at Lord's:
1977
2005
THAT'S IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!..... 1 series before 2005.....
If you want I'll reel off the rest....
Nottingham 1899, 1905, 1921, 1926, 1930, 1934, 1938, 1948, 1953, 1956, 1964, 1981
Birmingham 1902, 1909, 1961, 1975, 1997, 2001
Manchester 1968, 1972, 1993
Leeds 1985, 1989.
There you go you baldie freak of nature..... *Love you really*... Just don't mess with history, especially my history....
The West Indies are on strike... Tino 'Windows' Best is leading their attack vs Banglandesh. Ho ho ho. Looks like Stanford really stuffed them over if they aren't paying their players. You wouldn't really know considering how lazy-arsed they were in the Test series vs England. By the looks of it maybe a couple of them won't get back in....
That's it for now.... ;-) *phew*
Thursday 9 July 2009
Just the one
Newmarket
2.00 Barry Hills runs Red Jazz (8/1) here (Michael is on board). On the face of it, 7th at Royal Ascot behind the extremely impressive Canfield Cliffs isn't too much to shout about, but that was a good race. I'm not sure I could say the same about this one. 8/1 looks good value. 2 horses at larger prices that should run well are Tawaabb (12/1) and Reignier (16/1, bluesq). These filled the places in the 5f Group 2 race at Royal Ascot. Tawaabb was fancied, Reignier wasn't. Both step up to 6f today and are worth following. We don't know much about Arcano's win on debut, but he's got to be worth opposing in this contest.
And that's it. One race with a little value today. Don't want to sway you one way or the other on how to approach it, so I won't...
Good luck
2.00 Barry Hills runs Red Jazz (8/1) here (Michael is on board). On the face of it, 7th at Royal Ascot behind the extremely impressive Canfield Cliffs isn't too much to shout about, but that was a good race. I'm not sure I could say the same about this one. 8/1 looks good value. 2 horses at larger prices that should run well are Tawaabb (12/1) and Reignier (16/1, bluesq). These filled the places in the 5f Group 2 race at Royal Ascot. Tawaabb was fancied, Reignier wasn't. Both step up to 6f today and are worth following. We don't know much about Arcano's win on debut, but he's got to be worth opposing in this contest.
And that's it. One race with a little value today. Don't want to sway you one way or the other on how to approach it, so I won't...
Good luck
Wednesday 8 July 2009
Thank You Racing Post
Today, the Racing Post online goes members only for £9.99 a month. Not bad value to be honest at 33p a day, however it will now save me a lot of money as I won't have to read their drivel about why my selections can't win and so I can't be put off backing them.
Right, it's the first day of Newmarket's July meeting. No need to go mad, it's not Royal Ascot or anything, we lose enough money at these things anyway, however my selection in the first is also thre RP's spotlight selection here.
Newmarket
1.30 Would have been First City but the price has gone in from 14/1. Shame thought it would be a good day today.
In fact ther eis very little around, maybe with all the rain it's a good thing to lay it off for a day or two. 3 days without a bet, most unusual. Still we have a much bigger fish to fry, bring on the Aussies. All I ask for is that the 1st Test is better than the last one in 2005, which was a day of highs and lows. I'm just about to take the phone off the hook and settle down at 10am for 7 weeks of pleasure.
Right, it's the first day of Newmarket's July meeting. No need to go mad, it's not Royal Ascot or anything, we lose enough money at these things anyway, however my selection in the first is also thre RP's spotlight selection here.
Newmarket
1.30 Would have been First City but the price has gone in from 14/1. Shame thought it would be a good day today.
In fact ther eis very little around, maybe with all the rain it's a good thing to lay it off for a day or two. 3 days without a bet, most unusual. Still we have a much bigger fish to fry, bring on the Aussies. All I ask for is that the 1st Test is better than the last one in 2005, which was a day of highs and lows. I'm just about to take the phone off the hook and settle down at 10am for 7 weeks of pleasure.
Monday 6 July 2009
woot 2
Chorizo won @ 13/2. There was a rule 4 of 20p on the 12/1 we got, but very happy with that. That other stupid 7/2 shot, Lucky Buddha, didn't.. But another day in the black is good. If you backed any of the other horses mentioned yesterday, well Cobo Bay was 2nd @ 11/2 (from 12/1) and Intersky Music won (Bob Mountain another NR)...
Racing is truly shite today, so not bets til tomorrow. However Resurge runs again at Windsor tonight. 15/8f is too short although he has another decent chance. We got him at his price and he won't be that for a while.
Racing is truly shite today, so not bets til tomorrow. However Resurge runs again at Windsor tonight. 15/8f is too short although he has another decent chance. We got him at his price and he won't be that for a while.
Sunday 5 July 2009
not worth bothering about - grrrr
This was going to be a decent day with all of them winning of course, but withing the time it takes to witter on for ages, its all gone a bit Pete. Ho hum, I'll leave it up for you.
Ayr
2.10 A 3yo handicap with no previous winners in the field. The horse with IMHO, the best performance so far is Lucky Buddha (7/2 from 4/1), who's 3rd at Newcastle in C5 was pretty decent. Not a great run last time, but has the opportunity to score today in a weaker looking race. The 7/2 on offer is on the lower limits of my betting, but it still offers a bit of value.
4.40 Was going to be Cobo Bay, but while 16/1 was good value with skybet, that price has now change to 12/1 so I am having a hissy fit, no bet
Market Rasen
3.20 This looks a pretty decent race with lots of horses in 'form'. This gives a great opportunity of Michael's Dream (12/1) to sneak in under the rader. In decent nick himself, he's offered at a huge price here. Hi Dancer (4/1jf) is runnig over hurdles for the first time in ages, can't quite understand why they would bother tbh. Intersky Music (4/1jf) and Bob Mountain (6/1) look likely threats to our pick, but I really can't see him out of the frame here. Michael's Dream is now a NR..... sigh.......
3.50 A good race here. Tempsford (3/1f) looks a solid favourite. There are a couple of ew picks that are backable. Leopold (16/1) offers us a nice price on a very consistent horse and I think will go well, the excellent claimer Ryan Mania is on board. Not sure whether to split stakes with Chorizo (12/1). Price is ok and could upset the applecart. Scratch that. Leopold now a NR... Chorizo will have to be the selection...
What a waste of time that was.
Ayr
2.10 A 3yo handicap with no previous winners in the field. The horse with IMHO, the best performance so far is Lucky Buddha (7/2 from 4/1), who's 3rd at Newcastle in C5 was pretty decent. Not a great run last time, but has the opportunity to score today in a weaker looking race. The 7/2 on offer is on the lower limits of my betting, but it still offers a bit of value.
4.40 Was going to be Cobo Bay, but while 16/1 was good value with skybet, that price has now change to 12/1 so I am having a hissy fit, no bet
Market Rasen
3.20 This looks a pretty decent race with lots of horses in 'form'. This gives a great opportunity of Michael's Dream (12/1) to sneak in under the rader. In decent nick himself, he's offered at a huge price here. Hi Dancer (4/1jf) is runnig over hurdles for the first time in ages, can't quite understand why they would bother tbh. Intersky Music (4/1jf) and Bob Mountain (6/1) look likely threats to our pick, but I really can't see him out of the frame here. Michael's Dream is now a NR..... sigh.......
3.50 A good race here. Tempsford (3/1f) looks a solid favourite. There are a couple of ew picks that are backable. Leopold (16/1) offers us a nice price on a very consistent horse and I think will go well, the excellent claimer Ryan Mania is on board. Not sure whether to split stakes with Chorizo (12/1). Price is ok and could upset the applecart. Scratch that. Leopold now a NR... Chorizo will have to be the selection...
What a waste of time that was.
Friday 3 July 2009
Woot
Great 7 length win for Resurge on monday....... our only bet of the day....
3 days of downtime on the t'internet has resulted in a lack of activity at this end. There may have been some bets today but its a little late to do it so the next update will be on sunday morning.
3 days of downtime on the t'internet has resulted in a lack of activity at this end. There may have been some bets today but its a little late to do it so the next update will be on sunday morning.
Monday 29 June 2009
I don't Like Mondays
Very happy with yesterday.... 2 winners from 3 selections. Piste won @ 4/1, I hope you used one of the guaranteed odds bookies (bet365, Hills, Boylesports, Paddys or Stan James). Midnight Cruiser won @ 6/1 (from 9/1). Leleyf was beaten by an unexposed type :-p
There is very little today. One selection at Windsor tonight (I can't get winners at Windsor) is in the 8.10. I can ignore Roly Poly (16/1) and Blowhole (40/1). Rio Guru (16/1) has gone backwards from a promising start last year. Quince (16/1) has had to drop down in Class to get any prize money and is back up to C4.
The favourite, Racing Hero (10/11f), has obvious chances on his handicap debut, but is not my choice here. Pelham Crescent (11/1, coral) is a decent horse but still hasn't won away from the AW or Bath (hat-trick there in April/May). Poor at Sandwon LTO.
Buddy Holly (10/1, Hills) is a horse I fancied and landed the money at Kempton 12 days ago. Not a good run 3 days ago and the ground looks too fast for him.
Trans Siberian (10/1) seems to like Windsor (1 win & 2 places from 5 runs) and is worth considering but Resurge (12/1) who tackles 1m2f for the first time (been staying on well after some shoddy starts) after finding C2/C3 races a little too hot this . The good to firm ground will suit him and if he can get off to a decent start has a good chance of getting in the money.
So Resurge is my pick. Don't take less than 12/1.
Update: vcbet has just gone 14/1.
There is very little today. One selection at Windsor tonight (I can't get winners at Windsor) is in the 8.10. I can ignore Roly Poly (16/1) and Blowhole (40/1). Rio Guru (16/1) has gone backwards from a promising start last year. Quince (16/1) has had to drop down in Class to get any prize money and is back up to C4.
The favourite, Racing Hero (10/11f), has obvious chances on his handicap debut, but is not my choice here. Pelham Crescent (11/1, coral) is a decent horse but still hasn't won away from the AW or Bath (hat-trick there in April/May). Poor at Sandwon LTO.
Buddy Holly (10/1, Hills) is a horse I fancied and landed the money at Kempton 12 days ago. Not a good run 3 days ago and the ground looks too fast for him.
Trans Siberian (10/1) seems to like Windsor (1 win & 2 places from 5 runs) and is worth considering but Resurge (12/1) who tackles 1m2f for the first time (been staying on well after some shoddy starts) after finding C2/C3 races a little too hot this . The good to firm ground will suit him and if he can get off to a decent start has a good chance of getting in the money.
So Resurge is my pick. Don't take less than 12/1.
Update: vcbet has just gone 14/1.
Sunday 28 June 2009
Sunday is a day of rest....
Yesterday.
Trumpet Lily, punted in a little to 9/2, but didn't challenge.
King Of The Moors was 3rd :)
Binfield was a NR and a few more left Hallindal as one of 6 horses and unplaced.
Ours was average.
Whirlijig was 2nd
Lilly Blue and the other thing Montoya wotsit did bugger all.
Not quite the consistency I'd hoped for and a slight loss on the day.
Sunday looks pretty quiet. Can't see any each way selections at the moment, there may be a few win bets. When I say 'win bets' I actually mean bored bets. It's probably a day to swerve, but as I'm doing bugger all at the moment, I'll stick some bets up :-D
Windsor
2.55 Piste (7/2) has a good draw and is getting there. Looks a fairly weak renewal. Dancing Wave could be his biggest danger.
3.25 The Hills partnership runs Legislate (9/4jf) in this, but is too short for a value hunter. I liked the look of Midnight Cruiser's run at Sandown in April and he is upped in trip here, however the 9/1 offered by Stan James looks a tad on the large side. He is the value here.
4.00 Thanks RP, blurt out the usual claptrap... .'exposed' and 'vulnerable', the usual bollocks trotted out about a horse that's run a few times. For example Leleyf (8/1) is it's prime target for this boring vitriol with 5 runs. They love picking on horses like this and always plump for something (for example Existentialist) that has run crap but might improve....... The numbers don't add up.. It was crap last time... FACT.... last.... FACT..... led for a bit, then finished last, so fuck the draw...... Oh I feel much better now....
Leleyf won on it's first 2 starts, has significantly been upped in class since and has it's good-firm ground today. It's only run 5 times, yet is now cast aside like a used rubber and thrown in the bin, not that I'm advocating using condoms more than once.... yeuch. Anyways, Leleyf has the form in the book and at 8/1 is a good price in this. (Of course there might be something less exposed in the line up...zzzzzzzzzz)
I'm going for a lie down after that..... Fucking Racing Post.......
Trumpet Lily, punted in a little to 9/2, but didn't challenge.
King Of The Moors was 3rd :)
Binfield was a NR and a few more left Hallindal as one of 6 horses and unplaced.
Ours was average.
Whirlijig was 2nd
Lilly Blue and the other thing Montoya wotsit did bugger all.
Not quite the consistency I'd hoped for and a slight loss on the day.
Sunday looks pretty quiet. Can't see any each way selections at the moment, there may be a few win bets. When I say 'win bets' I actually mean bored bets. It's probably a day to swerve, but as I'm doing bugger all at the moment, I'll stick some bets up :-D
Windsor
2.55 Piste (7/2) has a good draw and is getting there. Looks a fairly weak renewal. Dancing Wave could be his biggest danger.
3.25 The Hills partnership runs Legislate (9/4jf) in this, but is too short for a value hunter. I liked the look of Midnight Cruiser's run at Sandown in April and he is upped in trip here, however the 9/1 offered by Stan James looks a tad on the large side. He is the value here.
4.00 Thanks RP, blurt out the usual claptrap... .'exposed' and 'vulnerable', the usual bollocks trotted out about a horse that's run a few times. For example Leleyf (8/1) is it's prime target for this boring vitriol with 5 runs. They love picking on horses like this and always plump for something (for example Existentialist) that has run crap but might improve....... The numbers don't add up.. It was crap last time... FACT.... last.... FACT..... led for a bit, then finished last, so fuck the draw...... Oh I feel much better now....
Leleyf won on it's first 2 starts, has significantly been upped in class since and has it's good-firm ground today. It's only run 5 times, yet is now cast aside like a used rubber and thrown in the bin, not that I'm advocating using condoms more than once.... yeuch. Anyways, Leleyf has the form in the book and at 8/1 is a good price in this. (Of course there might be something less exposed in the line up...zzzzzzzzzz)
I'm going for a lie down after that..... Fucking Racing Post.......
Saturday 27 June 2009
another frustrating day
First of all the good stuff
Avon River won (SP of 5/1)... missed the finish as some pesky customers wanted serving.... meh.
Now the not so good stuff. I do hope you all betfaired for some decent profit.
Lady Bluesky 25/1 --> 8/1 but did bugger all.
Ellmau 12/1 --> 9/2. Part one done...... Unfortunately Ellmau burst through the stalls causing a false start according to the RP. I couldn't see through the gloom, but when they restarted Ellmau was withdrawn, so gamble not landed.
Wiggy Smith 12/1 --> 5/2fav. A strange betting heat with Wiggy Smith going from outsider to favourite (after 2 withdrawals). With this now a 6 runner race, we already know what's going to happen, so yes Wiggy is 3rd...
All in all some amazing value prices, but no profit.... 2 days of immense frustration at this end and I'm sure we will get one soon. Keep the faith.
Saturday
I'm not going to trawl through all the big races today but pick out the best value if its there. Newcastle is now soft going.
3.10 Hits Only Vic is into 12/1 now from a lot bigger earlier due to him being one of the few with decent soft form.
Newmarket
4.35 Trumpet Lily (7/1, boylesports) looks too big in this 1m handicap.
5.05 King Of The Moors (14/1, Coral) gets his ground for the first time in a while today and is recommended. Hasn't hit the heights of his Hamilton win last September, and is dropped down to 7f for the first time in an eternity, but should be up there at the start and in the mix at the end.
Windsor 5.10 Neither Hallingdal (12/1) nor Binfield (22/1, Coral) sholud be as big as they are, but this is pretty competative, so either small stakes advised or some Betfair action required.
Doncaster 7.05 Ours (12/1, Stan James) should be snapped up before someone else does.
7.40 Whirlijig (14/1, Bet365, PP, SJ) is back on the flat after running on the flat (bumper style). Has place chances at a big price.
Lingfield 6.15 Really crap race. Lilly Blue (12/1, Bet365, Boylesports, SJ) showed enough at Wolverhampton LTO to get something here. Manolito Montoya (22/1, William Hill) has done bugger all so far, but should like the step up to 1m4f.
Ours is my best bet of the day I think... laters
Friday 26 June 2009
disappointed
Yesterday could have been so good but ends up frustrating as usual.
Moon Sister cruised up on the rail and had nowhere to go. I don't think Darryl Holland did it very well tbh, but once he knew there was no gap, he eased him into last place. Moon Sister started at 15/2 (from 20/1) so job done as far as I'm concerned. Follow this filly next time.
Mayfair's Future SP'd at 5/1 (from 14/1) and managed to get 2nd, 3 lengths behind the worthy winner.
Slightly down on the day, but I'm happy with both selections.
Today there's a few more bets, but nothing as strong as yesterday's two.
Doncaster
4.00 2-yo races aren't my thing usually, but Avon River (13/2, betfred, sportingbet) hasn't really put a foot wrong in his last 2 races, winning his Maiden in May and then stepping up in Class and Distance last time at the Derby meeting. Up in trip again and overpriced considering he's a Hannon horse.
Newcastle
7.55 Why is Lady Bluesky (25/1, vcbet, skybet), a former bumper winner running in 7f flat races? This is a crap race, Silk Trail (evsf) and Kammaan (3/1) will be in the frame, but the 3rd favourite, Riley Queen Bee (4/1) is nothing special and the rest are awful, putting Lady Bluesky in the hunt for a place. Not a big bet, but 2/1 for the place isn't too bad in this race.
8.25 Ellmau's 12/1 (bet365) is far too huge for this horse. They are out of line and you should be able to lay this off @ 8/1 nearer the off. Will need to get back to his Southwell win of last autumn, however this step back up in trip will suit. Handsome Falcon (3/1f) is a decent favourite but I hope Ellmau rediscovers his best today.
Newmarket
8.40 Wiggy Smith is probably my bet of the day at Betfred's outstanding 12/1. His disappointing run last time may have inflated his price today and I'm happy to back him. His price should be about 4/1 in my book. Really can't understand it myself. "Ground may be a concern" says the Racing Post.. Its Good ground FFS... He 6 wins have come on GS (1), GF (2) and Good (3).. Jeeesuzzzzzzzzz
Moon Sister cruised up on the rail and had nowhere to go. I don't think Darryl Holland did it very well tbh, but once he knew there was no gap, he eased him into last place. Moon Sister started at 15/2 (from 20/1) so job done as far as I'm concerned. Follow this filly next time.
Mayfair's Future SP'd at 5/1 (from 14/1) and managed to get 2nd, 3 lengths behind the worthy winner.
Slightly down on the day, but I'm happy with both selections.
Today there's a few more bets, but nothing as strong as yesterday's two.
Doncaster
4.00 2-yo races aren't my thing usually, but Avon River (13/2, betfred, sportingbet) hasn't really put a foot wrong in his last 2 races, winning his Maiden in May and then stepping up in Class and Distance last time at the Derby meeting. Up in trip again and overpriced considering he's a Hannon horse.
Newcastle
7.55 Why is Lady Bluesky (25/1, vcbet, skybet), a former bumper winner running in 7f flat races? This is a crap race, Silk Trail (evsf) and Kammaan (3/1) will be in the frame, but the 3rd favourite, Riley Queen Bee (4/1) is nothing special and the rest are awful, putting Lady Bluesky in the hunt for a place. Not a big bet, but 2/1 for the place isn't too bad in this race.
8.25 Ellmau's 12/1 (bet365) is far too huge for this horse. They are out of line and you should be able to lay this off @ 8/1 nearer the off. Will need to get back to his Southwell win of last autumn, however this step back up in trip will suit. Handsome Falcon (3/1f) is a decent favourite but I hope Ellmau rediscovers his best today.
Newmarket
8.40 Wiggy Smith is probably my bet of the day at Betfred's outstanding 12/1. His disappointing run last time may have inflated his price today and I'm happy to back him. His price should be about 4/1 in my book. Really can't understand it myself. "Ground may be a concern" says the Racing Post.. Its Good ground FFS... He 6 wins have come on GS (1), GF (2) and Good (3).. Jeeesuzzzzzzzzz
Thursday 25 June 2009
2 good bets for thursday
Apex ran well for the majority yesterday before fading late on. I'll keep a look out for him next time.
2 horses I think are ridiculous prices today are
Newcastle
5.00 Moon Sister (20/1, boylesports, sportingbet). Ok, first of all this is now down to 8 runners, so you are obviously taking a risk about another coming out, but this is a decent horse and he shouldn't be 20/1 (Hills are 9/1). Her main rivals are Gripsholm Castle (7/4f) and Lady Jane Digby (9/4), but this is a good trading opportunity with real place claims.
Kempton
6.10 Mayfair's Future (14/1, bet365). Wow, what a load of dross in this Class 6 donkeyfest. Again another overpriced horse compared to the market. If it doesn't make the frame, I'll give it up. Den Maschine (5/1, skybet, vc, bet365) is a worthy rival.
That's all folks...
2 horses I think are ridiculous prices today are
Newcastle
5.00 Moon Sister (20/1, boylesports, sportingbet). Ok, first of all this is now down to 8 runners, so you are obviously taking a risk about another coming out, but this is a decent horse and he shouldn't be 20/1 (Hills are 9/1). Her main rivals are Gripsholm Castle (7/4f) and Lady Jane Digby (9/4), but this is a good trading opportunity with real place claims.
Kempton
6.10 Mayfair's Future (14/1, bet365). Wow, what a load of dross in this Class 6 donkeyfest. Again another overpriced horse compared to the market. If it doesn't make the frame, I'll give it up. Den Maschine (5/1, skybet, vc, bet365) is a worthy rival.
That's all folks...
Wednesday 24 June 2009
Wednesday e/w
Well Stoneacre Lad didn't offer much in the profit department. I tuned in to see him hit the reverse gear after what looked like a good first half of the race. pfft
Not much 'value' around today.
Kempton 8.50
Apex (25/1, general). This was a good horse in 2007. It hasn't run for 21 months now, so as always fitness has to be taken on trust. Martin Hill has a small stable and theoretically this is the best rated horse he has. These are the types of horses that only win if you don't back them (of course), so I have to include him for the day.
Not much 'value' around today.
Kempton 8.50
Apex (25/1, general). This was a good horse in 2007. It hasn't run for 21 months now, so as always fitness has to be taken on trust. Martin Hill has a small stable and theoretically this is the best rated horse he has. These are the types of horses that only win if you don't back them (of course), so I have to include him for the day.
Monday 22 June 2009
Monday
Not much value around today......
3.15 Lingfield
Stoneacre Lad (12/1) has the ability to win this, certainly to get a place and I'd be disappointed if he didn't. His record of 0/11 (place record) over the past year is crap, but this could be the perfect race for him.
He won a Class 1, Listed race at Kempton last year and has consistently been running in C1/C2 ever since. His C3, 4th at York 10 days ago should have got him up for this one.
Tom Queally is on board who got him to win a Class 2 at Ascot in 2007, This is a Class 3 that he should really be winning on his ability.
3.15 Lingfield
Stoneacre Lad (12/1) has the ability to win this, certainly to get a place and I'd be disappointed if he didn't. His record of 0/11 (place record) over the past year is crap, but this could be the perfect race for him.
He won a Class 1, Listed race at Kempton last year and has consistently been running in C1/C2 ever since. His C3, 4th at York 10 days ago should have got him up for this one.
Tom Queally is on board who got him to win a Class 2 at Ascot in 2007, This is a Class 3 that he should really be winning on his ability.
Sunday 21 June 2009
Trainers to follow
Richard Fahey's record this season has been pretty immense. Since March, he's sent out 369 flat runners with a 18.4% strike rate with a LSP of +£92 to a £1 stake or ROI of 125% (although this is boosted by a 66/1 at Ascot in Cosmic Sun).
If we concentrate on his top 3 jockeys his record improves even more.
Paul Hanagan 181 rides, 33 wins, ROI 133%
T Hamilton 65 rides, 12 wins, ROI 120%
Fred Tylicki 38 rides, 12 wins, ROI 229%
Hanagan has 4 rides this week for Fahey. Smarterthanutyhink, Bo McGinty and Starla Dancer at Beverley, Tuesday and William Morgan at Carlisle, Wednesday.
Tylicki rides Swinbrook at Newcastle, Friday.
Hamilton rides Starla Dancer at Hamilton, Thursday (if he runs).
The Barry Hills/ Richard Hills combination has also been pretty strong.
Since the start of the year Richard has ridden 20 horses for his father and has 8 wins. for a ROI of 256%. Michael Hills makes a profit too. 110 rides, 26 wins for 120% ROI.
So backing the Hills/Hills blindly gives a sound profit. However Barry Hills stats were immense in April/May and have tailed off a little, but after his successful Royal Ascot its certainly worth backing him in the big races.
Richard Hills record in Class 1 or 2 races is pretty hot, 6/14 with an ROI of 317%.
Michael Hills has 10/45, SR of 22% and ROI of 168%.
Michael Hills has 6 rides this week for Barry.
The final trainer to look at is Mark Johnston who has a fantastic record for getting his horses back to winning form after a break.
Horses tend to keep their fitness for a cetain period of time, about a month is generally the latest before they drop off. Johnston's record this year is 12/51 runners and a SR of 23.50%, generating an ROI of 134%. If you only look at his handicap runners his record is 10/38, SR of 26% and an ROI of 153%
His record after 90+ days off is pretty decent. 8/35 runs for an SR of 22.9% and returns of 116%, pretty decent back after a 3 month break.
Combining handicaps with 90+ days off and we have a 30% SR (167% ROI), his record being 7/23.
If you want to ge one step further his record for handicap 2 or 3 yo's male horses since March is as follows:
5/13, SR of 38.5% and a ROI of 232%, but that's getting a bit too fancy.
back Fahey with P Hanaghan, F Tylicki or T Hamilton on board.
back Michael or Richard Hills especially, riding for their father, especially in Class 1 or 2 races.
back Mark Johnston's horses in handicaps if they have been off for 90 days.
night.
VH
If we concentrate on his top 3 jockeys his record improves even more.
Paul Hanagan 181 rides, 33 wins, ROI 133%
T Hamilton 65 rides, 12 wins, ROI 120%
Fred Tylicki 38 rides, 12 wins, ROI 229%
Hanagan has 4 rides this week for Fahey. Smarterthanutyhink, Bo McGinty and Starla Dancer at Beverley, Tuesday and William Morgan at Carlisle, Wednesday.
Tylicki rides Swinbrook at Newcastle, Friday.
Hamilton rides Starla Dancer at Hamilton, Thursday (if he runs).
The Barry Hills/ Richard Hills combination has also been pretty strong.
Since the start of the year Richard has ridden 20 horses for his father and has 8 wins. for a ROI of 256%. Michael Hills makes a profit too. 110 rides, 26 wins for 120% ROI.
So backing the Hills/Hills blindly gives a sound profit. However Barry Hills stats were immense in April/May and have tailed off a little, but after his successful Royal Ascot its certainly worth backing him in the big races.
Richard Hills record in Class 1 or 2 races is pretty hot, 6/14 with an ROI of 317%.
Michael Hills has 10/45, SR of 22% and ROI of 168%.
Michael Hills has 6 rides this week for Barry.
The final trainer to look at is Mark Johnston who has a fantastic record for getting his horses back to winning form after a break.
Horses tend to keep their fitness for a cetain period of time, about a month is generally the latest before they drop off. Johnston's record this year is 12/51 runners and a SR of 23.50%, generating an ROI of 134%. If you only look at his handicap runners his record is 10/38, SR of 26% and an ROI of 153%
His record after 90+ days off is pretty decent. 8/35 runs for an SR of 22.9% and returns of 116%, pretty decent back after a 3 month break.
Combining handicaps with 90+ days off and we have a 30% SR (167% ROI), his record being 7/23.
If you want to ge one step further his record for handicap 2 or 3 yo's male horses since March is as follows:
5/13, SR of 38.5% and a ROI of 232%, but that's getting a bit too fancy.
back Fahey with P Hanaghan, F Tylicki or T Hamilton on board.
back Michael or Richard Hills especially, riding for their father, especially in Class 1 or 2 races.
back Mark Johnston's horses in handicaps if they have been off for 90 days.
night.
VH
Thursday 18 June 2009
Thursday's Royal Ascot
Very truncated message tonight.. No time, same likely tomorrow too.
2.30 - Norfolk Stakes
Monsieur Chevalier (13/8f) should win, but Yogaroo's 2 stablemates have hosed up in races on tues and weds, so he is now a big danger. Star Rover's (66/1) got decent form to get a place at huge odds, but ran averagely in tuesday's race.
3.00 - Ribblesdale Stakes
This revolves around 3 fillies. Leocorno (15/8f) hasn't done anything wrong so far, but has a tough race with Take The Hint (3/1) and Flying Cloud (9/1) challenging. Can't really split them.
3.45 - Gold Cup
Yeats (9/4f) has won this for the last 3 years. But he ran fairly pooly on his last run and no 8yo has won this for 90 years.
Geordieland (3/1) was runner-up the last 2 years and is also an 8yo. Patkai (10/3) is the up and coming horse that Geordieland beat last time.
Veracity (7/1) may get a place but probably won't win.
4.20 - Britannia Stakes
30 runner race. Should be sticking to horses drawn high or low.
The race today was won by those drawn low, so it could pay to stick with Brief Encounter (8/1) (drawn 6), Satwa Laird (40/1) (drawn 3) or River Captain (14/1) (drawn 2). Desert Creek (13/2f) is drawn the other side in 26.
4.55 - Hampton Court Stakes
Freemantle (5/4f) looks a good horse, but could be turned over by Monitor Closely (7/1). On Our Way (28/1) is an e/w shot.
5.30 - King George V Stakes
Quite a few at big prices to chose from. Again I'm going to stay fairly low on the draw as they definitely have an advantage.
I really fancy London Bridge (16/1) (drawn 8). Lasso The Moon (20/1) is drawn nicely in 6.
Those drawn a little higher are Dubai Crest in 10 (40/1), Chiberta King in 11 (9/1) and Takaatuf in 12 (20/1).
2.30 - Norfolk Stakes
Monsieur Chevalier (13/8f) should win, but Yogaroo's 2 stablemates have hosed up in races on tues and weds, so he is now a big danger. Star Rover's (66/1) got decent form to get a place at huge odds, but ran averagely in tuesday's race.
3.00 - Ribblesdale Stakes
This revolves around 3 fillies. Leocorno (15/8f) hasn't done anything wrong so far, but has a tough race with Take The Hint (3/1) and Flying Cloud (9/1) challenging. Can't really split them.
3.45 - Gold Cup
Yeats (9/4f) has won this for the last 3 years. But he ran fairly pooly on his last run and no 8yo has won this for 90 years.
Geordieland (3/1) was runner-up the last 2 years and is also an 8yo. Patkai (10/3) is the up and coming horse that Geordieland beat last time.
Veracity (7/1) may get a place but probably won't win.
4.20 - Britannia Stakes
30 runner race. Should be sticking to horses drawn high or low.
The race today was won by those drawn low, so it could pay to stick with Brief Encounter (8/1) (drawn 6), Satwa Laird (40/1) (drawn 3) or River Captain (14/1) (drawn 2). Desert Creek (13/2f) is drawn the other side in 26.
4.55 - Hampton Court Stakes
Freemantle (5/4f) looks a good horse, but could be turned over by Monitor Closely (7/1). On Our Way (28/1) is an e/w shot.
5.30 - King George V Stakes
Quite a few at big prices to chose from. Again I'm going to stay fairly low on the draw as they definitely have an advantage.
I really fancy London Bridge (16/1) (drawn 8). Lasso The Moon (20/1) is drawn nicely in 6.
Those drawn a little higher are Dubai Crest in 10 (40/1), Chiberta King in 11 (9/1) and Takaatuf in 12 (20/1).
Wednesday 17 June 2009
No milk today
Very poor day (Ascot excepted).
Yesterday was also frustrating.
Hurlingham should have won, [rant] only his jockey thought he'd run up the fence into a gap that disappeared.[/rant]
Atlantic Beach was 4th but had every chance.
Galant Eye was backed off the boeards into 9/1 but never struck a blow. Well done if you traded that one.
Past Heratage was 3rd, behind the winner Just Like That
so 4pts down on the day. Still you will save some money today as the cards don't offer much for me.
Yesterday was also frustrating.
Hurlingham should have won, [rant] only his jockey thought he'd run up the fence into a gap that disappeared.[/rant]
Atlantic Beach was 4th but had every chance.
Galant Eye was backed off the boeards into 9/1 but never struck a blow. Well done if you traded that one.
Past Heratage was 3rd, behind the winner Just Like That
so 4pts down on the day. Still you will save some money today as the cards don't offer much for me.
Tuesday 16 June 2009
Wednesday's Royal Ascot
A quick recap of tuesday...
Paco Boy does stay. super run, Gladitorus was very disapointing.
Scenic Blast won as did Mastercraftsman who looked beat 1/2 a furlong from the finish, but came back superbly to beat Delegator.
Canford Cliffs hosed up too and is the horse to beat in the 2,000 Guineas next season.
Gala Evening was 4th for a nice e/w return.
And Little Scotland was 4th, so you got a payout with totesport or bet365, but not elsewhere. Yet I give mentions to the 2nds and 3rd in Di Steffano and Fratellino.. oh well. hope someone got lucky
Just a little over 2pts profit for the meeting. Happy with Gala Evening's run. Shame about Little Scotland. That cost me the placepot. Hope you took 4 places @ 14/1.
Right, onto Wednesday
2.30 Jersey Stakes - 7f for 3yo
A tricky renewal here. The winner usually comes from the top of the betting. Indicating Infiraad (5/1f) having a cracking chance. The Hills/Hills combination has been hot in recent weeks, but I don't think he's done too much in his 2 wins this term. Loch Linnhe (6/1) needs to step up for his debut win in May, and I'm happy to take him on too. Richard Hills prefers the favourite to stablemate Ouqba (10/1) although he is third top-rated. The joint top-rated horses, Gallagher (9/1) and Donativum (10/1), both decent 2-yo's. This is Gallagher's 1st run of the season and it remains to be seen whether he has trained on. Donativum ran poorly on his seasonal bough and I can't be with him. Dettori chooses Ashram (10/1) who disappointed in the Guineas. This should suit better but I'm not convinced. One that does fit the trends at a bigger price is Instalment (25/1, Stan James), however his record over 7f is 0-3, and looks a 6f horse.
I'm going to look at 2 horses to take them on with. Ocean's Minstrel (16/1) is improving with every run. His win at the Derby meet was decent enough and should bowl along in front from his low draw and his proven stamina can get him in the mix. Total Gallery (25/1, Lads) comes from a 5f race at Haydock against older horses, but both his excellent 6f wins also indicated (by way of in-running comments) that 6f is his limit. His trainer reckons he's a 5f horse, so I'm a little perplexed as to why he would run him at 7f for the first time and not the King's Stand over 5f on tuesday. A conundrum indeed, Watson.
Selection - Ocean's Minstrel (16/1 e/w, bet365, betfred).
3.05 Windsor Forest Stakes - 1m for Fillies
Looks a straight shootout between Lush Lashes (13/8f) who finally got some deserved wins at the end of last season, and Heaven Sent (5/2f). A 3rd horse to throw into the equation is Eva's Request (9/1, vcbet, Ladbrokes), however will like it a bit wet in the morning as she has no form on good-firm. Difficult decision. If the ground softens, then I'd take a punt on Eva's Request, but can't make a decision until then.
No selection
3.45 Prince Of Wales' Stakes - 1m2f
Never be afraid of foreign horses.. They usually end up a bigger price than they are entitled to be due to good old English xenophobia. Now the 2 with impressive French form are Vision D'Etat (7/2, vcbet) and Never On Sunday (4/1). Both excellent horses with results to match. Favourite Tartan Bearer (7/4f) of course has his chances but I'm not keen. I'd be happy to back Twice Over (8/1) but he doesn't win too much either.
Selection - Never On Sunday (4/1) as his stable is in form and Vision D'Etat may want further.
4.20 Royal Hunt Cup (Handicap) - 1m
30 runners up the straight mile. We must avoid horses drawn in the middle say 9-21 as thay have an awful record of even getting in the frame. Forgotten Voice (9/2f), great draw, great form, great chance. Far too short for me, remember handicap good thing Bankable from last year!!!
A few of these have won me money so I mustn't get sentimental over them. I could mull for hours over most of the field but this is a good trends race so if we combine form and stats we can only come up with one horse from 30. Mia's Boy (14/1). The draw is good and he is always there or there abouts. Ryan Moore rides him today and I'm pretty hopeful.
Selection - Mia's Boy (14/1, bet365 - 5places) Others to pay 5 places are totesport, boylesports, paddypower and stan james.
4.55 Queen Mary Stakes - 5f for 2y0 Filles
Another race where bare form and trends lead to only 2 selections. Don't Tell Mary (9/2, vcbet, Ladbrokes) and Misheer (11/1, vcbet, bluesquare). The favourite, Rose Blossom (4/1f), doesn't impress me too much.
Selection - Split stakes between Don't Tell Mary (9/2) and Misheer (11/1).
5.30 Sandringham Handicap - 1m for 3yo Fillies
Tough race to finish. I do like the top 2 in the market on Photographic (5/1f) and Moneycantbuymelove (15/2). Some of the would be challenger have somew good form on soft. But it ain't soft, so they are too risky. Sigh. Leave it alone is the best advice I can give.
Selection - Moneycantbuymelove (15/2) and Photographic (5/1f.
So that's that. Mia's Boy is my best bet, very little to be too confident about in the other races. I'll try and find some winners at the other meetings but that will probably be nearer 1pm if I make it at all.
Publish Post
Tuesday's tips
Not too much else around today.
Thirsk
4.35 Not a bad little race here and Hurlingham (6/1, William Hill) seems a little on the large side. Consistent whenever he runs, I think 1m4f is his best distance and is worth backing at 6/1.
5.10 Atlantic Beach (9/2f, Lads, vc) is my selection. There aren't many who look to progressive this season. Stevie Gee (11/2) hasn't hit the heights of 2008 in his 4 runs this season. Two at bigger prices to make the frame could be Legal Eagle (12/1, Hills), who ran well at Doncaster and is dropped back down in Grade and Rasaman (14/1, general), who has good course form, however hasn't won at 6f for 3 years but I was impressed with his last race over 6f at Hamilton last week against some good horses.
Newton Abbot
6.45 Galant Eye (33/1, bet365, Paddypower) hasn't run for 14 months, but I'm more than happy to back him if he can get back to the form of his win here 3 years ago (yes he's only run 3 times since then). a bit of rain would go amiss, but I'll take the good ground. I fully expect him to start 16/1, so Betfair me up.
7.45 Past Heritage (7/1, general) is my pick. Fitness taken on trust, however I'm always happy to back them after a few months off especially in a weak renewal such as this. Just Like That (3/1f) his likeliest rival.
Thirsk
4.35 Not a bad little race here and Hurlingham (6/1, William Hill) seems a little on the large side. Consistent whenever he runs, I think 1m4f is his best distance and is worth backing at 6/1.
5.10 Atlantic Beach (9/2f, Lads, vc) is my selection. There aren't many who look to progressive this season. Stevie Gee (11/2) hasn't hit the heights of 2008 in his 4 runs this season. Two at bigger prices to make the frame could be Legal Eagle (12/1, Hills), who ran well at Doncaster and is dropped back down in Grade and Rasaman (14/1, general), who has good course form, however hasn't won at 6f for 3 years but I was impressed with his last race over 6f at Hamilton last week against some good horses.
Newton Abbot
6.45 Galant Eye (33/1, bet365, Paddypower) hasn't run for 14 months, but I'm more than happy to back him if he can get back to the form of his win here 3 years ago (yes he's only run 3 times since then). a bit of rain would go amiss, but I'll take the good ground. I fully expect him to start 16/1, so Betfair me up.
7.45 Past Heritage (7/1, general) is my pick. Fitness taken on trust, however I'm always happy to back them after a few months off especially in a weak renewal such as this. Just Like That (3/1f) his likeliest rival.
Monday 15 June 2009
Re-Launch for Royal Ascot
Right, I really have to pull my finger out.... This will have some sort of bollocks on it at least 3 times a week..... I promise....
We will start with an analysis of the first day of Royal Ascot as it has been requested by one loyal follower....
2.3o Queen Anne Stakes - 1 mile
Does Paco Boy (7/2) stay a mile? I don't think he does, this should prove it one way or the other. Gladitorus (5/2f) should reproduce his Dubai wins here and if he does will be the one to beat. Main Aim (9/2) tries a mile for the first time. A really decent horse over 7f, but I just don't know if he'll stay so I'm staying away. Alexandros (8/1) put Paco Boy and Aqlaam (10/1) to the sword last time out, but that was on softer. Mac Love (50/1) won well last time out and a good 4th (50/1) the time before that. If they go too quick, then he could be staying on past beaten horses for a place.
Selection - Gladitorus 5/2f (Ladbrokes, Coral, Stan James, vcbet)
3.05 King Stand Stakes - 5f
The talking horse here is Amour Propre (7/2), well I heard nothing else from the Racing Press in the last 2 weeks. Yup, the way he won the Palace House stakes was very impressive and he should be on everyone's shortlist. Scenic Blast (3/1f) is the Australian jolly. The Aussies have a great record in this race and he has to be seriously considered. Borderlescott (10/1) is a punter's favourite, not that he wins very much. A perennial bridesmaid in so many races, so place possiblities at best. The last 2 I'm considering are Fleeting Spirit (9/2) and Tax Free (11/1). Fleeting Spirit has been away for 8 months, but can go well fresh and If he's up to his form can threathen the status quo. Tax Free is an e/w shot . Personally I can't see him winning but could make the frame.
Selection - Can't split them, so 1/2 pt on Amour Propre 7/2 and Scenic Blast 3/1f.
3.45 St James Palace Stakes - 1m for 3yo
Mastercraftsman (9/10f) is the best horse here judging by his destruction of the field in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. that was on soft ground but has won on good-firm. Delegator (9/2) gets his ground to turn the tables, but really has it all to do. Soul City (22/1) followed the favourite home in 3rd and is value. Evasive (5/1) needs to find something to reverse form here but isn't without hope if he strips fitter for his 2,000 Guineas 6th.
Selection - Mastercraftsman 9/10f (vcbet) and Soul City 22/1 (vcbet).
4.20 Coventry Stakes - 6f for 2yo
Trends-wise this is pretty straight-forward. The winner will come from either, Canford Cliffs (2/1f), No Hubris (11/2) or Red Jazz (8/1). FACT.
Selection - none or all 3.
4.55 Ascot Stakes (Handicap) - 2m4f
Last Year's winner, Missoula (20/1) runs again and is 2lbs lower this year but doesn't seem to be in anywhere near to winning this at the moment. Kayf Aramis (7/1f) hosed up 2 runs ago, but disappointed LTO at Goodwood, but that probably came too soon. A solid favourite. Sesenta (9/1) hasn't put a foot wrong in last 2 starts and has the profile to take this. Probably not a great race from a punters prospective. There are few no-hopers in this (100/1 shot Valentino Rossi being an exception). Even Gala Evening (25/1) has a realistic chance in this, and if the rain was to come I'd consider Fire And Rain (28/1).
Selection - Gala Evening (25/1) at a push.
5.30 Windsor Castle Stakes - 5f for 2yo
Not really the kind of race to get you out of trouble. 100/1 shot Flashman's Papers won it last year for John Best. George Baker rides George Baker (33/1) for George Baker and it ran an ok 3rd at 33/1 last time. Mick Channon has a good record and saddles Di Stefano (33/1). Mister Mannanan (4/1f) has the profile of a winner and Angel's Pursuit (5/1) has won well on his only start so far. But I'm going to have to find a big priced horse for you. Fratellino (40/1) has some decent form in the book, but looks too exposed to win this. Star Rover (12/1) is a possibility but I can't help think he isn't classy enough to win. Dancing Freddie (50/1, stan james) also needs to come on again. Little Scotland (16/1, Ladbrokes, vcbet) has a good draw and is racing here instead of the fillies race.
Selection - Nothing much. Star Rover 12/1 and Little Scotland 16/1 against the field if I have to stick my neck out.
totesport and bet365 are offering 4 places @ 1/4 odds. Boylesports and skybet only offer 3 places @ 1/5 odds.
The rest of the days racing should be reviewed later.
Friday 3 April 2009
Aintree Day 2
2.00
This is all about American Trilogy (11/4f, sportingbet), the impressive Cheltenham winner. He should win as this looks a fairly average field. He 'should' win.
2.35
Herecomesthetruth (9/4f, sportingbet) goes for a five-timer today and is a worthy favourite here. I thought that Massini's Maguire (5/2) ran like he's ready for the step up to 3m1f at Cheltenham (3rd behind Cooldine) but of the two Herecomesthetruth looks more solid. This looks tough for Shining Gale (13/2, sportingbet), who will win races at a lower level. Siegemaster (10/1) is a horse who I've followed over in Ireland for a bit. I backed him at Cheltenham where he fell whilst up with the pace. I expect him to come on and challenge here if he jumps well.
3.10
RIP Exotic Dancer, who died of a heartattack in his stable after a fine run yesterday.
I'm hoping that Voy Por Ustedes (13/8f, vcbet) will do what he did last year and win at Aintree after a disappointing Cheltenham. He's the best horse here. Tidal Bay (11/2, vcbet, Ladbrokes, Coral) needs to put his Cheltenham display behind him and is best watched. Of the e/w chances, Petit Robin (12/1, spbet, Bluesq) looks the most likely. Brierius (22/1) is dropped down in trip by over half a mile and I would prefer him over 3m.
3.45
28 runners and the best horse to back is the favourite.....pants. Lots of 'Grand National' rejects in here over 2m5f... Hmmm. Anyways Ping Pong Sivola (15/2f, spbet) should be in your placepot, but I wouldn't be backing him at that price. Mr Pointment (9/1) is hard to recommend and Gwanako (8/1) only wins if I don't back him ( I haven't) . I back New Little Bric @ 40/1 where he runs crap and he then hoses up at 14/1 next time. He's 14/1 here and I wouldn't back him with stolen money. Oodachee (22/1) was decent at Cheltenham and if you ignore that, he's got conditions to suit here. Looks like a great race... to watch.
4.20
Ah, A battle of the Cheltenham Novices. The race where I got Chief Dan George @ 40/1, 2 years ago as Wichita Lineman and Massini's Maguire went hammer and tongs all the way round only for CDG to plod along and take them in the run-in... Great scenes... The 3rd that day??? Imperial Commander, winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Ryanair Chase this season for £210k. Anyway back to business. I'd love to tell you who's going to win but I can't, best to watch some future chase winners in action. Mikael D'Haugenet's fine run 3 weeks ago makes Karabak (9/4f, William Hill) the favourite. He should be suited by this trip, but I didn't think he ran a great race there, he has something to prove. Pride Of Dulcote looks too big at 11/2 considering he only lost to Weapons Amnesty (11/2) by 1/2 length at Cheltenham. The better ground is in his favour and is my selection. Unchartered territory for According To Dick (9/1, blusq) and is ignored.
4.55
I've never rated Aigle D'or (13/2f) and I'm not going to start now. Piriya (25/1) was awful at Cheltenham, I'm loathed to give him another chance in a competative race like this. A race to leave methinks. Not even a token e/w selection. :-(
5.30
Mare's Bumper. Morning Supreme (7/2f) was 5th at Cheltenham (behind the very impressive Dunguib) and now races against the girls. Should win, but something always comes along and you should be in the pub by now anyway....
NAP 2.00 American Trilogy
NB 3.10 Voy Por Ustedes
This is all about American Trilogy (11/4f, sportingbet), the impressive Cheltenham winner. He should win as this looks a fairly average field. He 'should' win.
2.35
Herecomesthetruth (9/4f, sportingbet) goes for a five-timer today and is a worthy favourite here. I thought that Massini's Maguire (5/2) ran like he's ready for the step up to 3m1f at Cheltenham (3rd behind Cooldine) but of the two Herecomesthetruth looks more solid. This looks tough for Shining Gale (13/2, sportingbet), who will win races at a lower level. Siegemaster (10/1) is a horse who I've followed over in Ireland for a bit. I backed him at Cheltenham where he fell whilst up with the pace. I expect him to come on and challenge here if he jumps well.
3.10
RIP Exotic Dancer, who died of a heartattack in his stable after a fine run yesterday.
I'm hoping that Voy Por Ustedes (13/8f, vcbet) will do what he did last year and win at Aintree after a disappointing Cheltenham. He's the best horse here. Tidal Bay (11/2, vcbet, Ladbrokes, Coral) needs to put his Cheltenham display behind him and is best watched. Of the e/w chances, Petit Robin (12/1, spbet, Bluesq) looks the most likely. Brierius (22/1) is dropped down in trip by over half a mile and I would prefer him over 3m.
3.45
28 runners and the best horse to back is the favourite.....pants. Lots of 'Grand National' rejects in here over 2m5f... Hmmm. Anyways Ping Pong Sivola (15/2f, spbet) should be in your placepot, but I wouldn't be backing him at that price. Mr Pointment (9/1) is hard to recommend and Gwanako (8/1) only wins if I don't back him ( I haven't) . I back New Little Bric @ 40/1 where he runs crap and he then hoses up at 14/1 next time. He's 14/1 here and I wouldn't back him with stolen money. Oodachee (22/1) was decent at Cheltenham and if you ignore that, he's got conditions to suit here. Looks like a great race... to watch.
4.20
Ah, A battle of the Cheltenham Novices. The race where I got Chief Dan George @ 40/1, 2 years ago as Wichita Lineman and Massini's Maguire went hammer and tongs all the way round only for CDG to plod along and take them in the run-in... Great scenes... The 3rd that day??? Imperial Commander, winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Ryanair Chase this season for £210k. Anyway back to business. I'd love to tell you who's going to win but I can't, best to watch some future chase winners in action. Mikael D'Haugenet's fine run 3 weeks ago makes Karabak (9/4f, William Hill) the favourite. He should be suited by this trip, but I didn't think he ran a great race there, he has something to prove. Pride Of Dulcote looks too big at 11/2 considering he only lost to Weapons Amnesty (11/2) by 1/2 length at Cheltenham. The better ground is in his favour and is my selection. Unchartered territory for According To Dick (9/1, blusq) and is ignored.
4.55
I've never rated Aigle D'or (13/2f) and I'm not going to start now. Piriya (25/1) was awful at Cheltenham, I'm loathed to give him another chance in a competative race like this. A race to leave methinks. Not even a token e/w selection. :-(
5.30
Mare's Bumper. Morning Supreme (7/2f) was 5th at Cheltenham (behind the very impressive Dunguib) and now races against the girls. Should win, but something always comes along and you should be in the pub by now anyway....
NAP 2.00 American Trilogy
NB 3.10 Voy Por Ustedes
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