JCB
TRIUMPH HURDLE
2
Miles 179 Yards, Grade 1 4yo Hurdle
Last
10 Winners- average 4.2 stars
2018
*** Farclas (9/1)
2017
**** Defi Du Seuil (5/2 fav)
2016
***** Ivanovich Gorbatov (9/2 fav)
2015
***** Peace And Co (2/1 fav)
2014
***** Tiger Roll (10/1)
2013
**** Our Conor (4/1)
2012
*** Countrywide Flame (33/1)
2011
**** Zarkandar (13/2)
2010
**** Soldatino (6/1)
2009
***** Zaynar (11/2)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had raced within the last 55 days.
10/10
Had an OR of 84+ on the flat, or did not race on the flat.
10/10
Were rated within 6lbs of the RPR top rated.
10/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 149. [OR 140]
9/10
Had won at least 50% of their hurdle races. [Farclas,
2 seconds last year.]
9/10
Had raced over hurdles at least twice. 7 had run either 2 or 3 times.
[Zarkandar,
once]
8/10
Had won one of their last 2 starts. 6 won their last start.
[Exceptions form was ‘23’ and ‘22’ ]
8/10
Were from a flat Group 1 sire. [1 Exception was a Group 2 sire]
8/10
Made their hurdles début after November 9th. [Exceptions, Jul 16th
and
Oct 15th]
Additionally
27
of the last 28 winners had at least 2 runs over hurdles.
19
of the last 25 winners had won last time out.
19
of the last 25 winners had won at least twice over hurdles.
Only
1 winner was rated lower than 80 on the flat since 1996.
11
of the last 14 winners (since the introduction of the Fred Winter)
came from the first 4 in the betting.
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 3-4-16
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 2-1-8
Paul
Nicholls 1-2-16
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 0-6-19
Alan
King 0-2-15
Dermot
Weld (Ire) 0-2-2
Contenders
***
Adjali (20/1)
Been
placing in Graded Hurdles, needs more today
***
Authorizo (66/1)
3rd
in Grade 3 company last time, improvement required. Big price for a
Elliott/Kennedy combination.
*
Coeur Sublime (20/1)
Fell
when challenging in a Grade 2, then disappointing last time. Not got
a Grade 1 winning sire. Elliott/Russell combination.
*
Ecco (80/1)
6th
in the Adonis Hurdle on debut. Needs more here.
****
Gardens Of Babylon (11/1)
Behind
Sir Erec last time
but very well though of. Hard to see him turning it around here.
*
Hannon (40/1)
2nd
in a Grade 2 at Naas last time. Needs to improve, 1 star pretty harsh
here.
**
Nelson River (80/1)
6th
in the trial here. Did win a Class 2 before that, but others are
preferred.
*
Pentland Hills
(20/1)
Won
easily on debut. Fails lots of trends (1 run, ran 18 days ago, flat
rating, current APR), but most of those are because he has the 1 run.
If you fancy him, I won’t put you off.
***
Pic d’orthy (8/1)
Nicholls
purchase from France, yet to run over here. 2nd in a Grade 1 last
time out, but off since that run in November, and ground is an
unknown.
**
Quel Destin (9/1)
The
main British hope, Won a Grade 1 (beating Adjali).
Flat rating was poor and now on his 11th
hurdles run of his career. Goes on any ground
*
Runrized (50/1)
4th
on debut, hard to fancy.
***** Sir
Erec (10/11
fav)
Worthy
favourite, best flat horse in this for a while. No weaknesses so far.
**
Tiger Tap Tap (10/1)
Beaten
by Sir Erec twice,
beaten further the second time.
**
French Made (50/1)
Won
on debut. 2nd
and 3rd
have won since. Plenty of time to get a second run in, so that’s a
worry.
Conclusion
Difficult
to see anything beating Sir Erec. Of course, he hasn’t run
here before, but with a 6 length beating of Garden Of Babylon
last time and little else to get excited about in the field he should
be fine.
Selections
No
bet. Gardens Of Babylon each way, w/o Sir Erec @ 13/2
(skybet) or the straight forecast are all options for those who want
an interest.
RANDOX
HEALTH COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE
2
Miles 179 Yards, Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle
Overview
The
last 3 winners have come off of a break of at least 80 days. So we’ve
binned off that trend. 2 were trained by Dan Skelton, so we may still
need to factor it in for other trainers. The excellent Weatherby’s
Festival guide flagged up that 11 of the last 15 winners ran on the
flat, 8 of the last 10 (Ted Veale
starting out in bumpers but running
on the flat before winning this.) Wicklow
Brave went on to win a Group 1 on
the flat after winning here and isn’t included this trend.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.3 stars
2018
***** Mohaayed (33/1)
2017
** Arctic Fire (20/1)
2016
**** Superb Story (8/1)
2015
*** Wicklow Brave (25/1)
2014
***** Lac Fontana (11/1)
2013
***** Ted Veale (10/1)
2012
**** Alderwood (20/1)
2011
***** Final Approach (10/1)
2010
***** Thousand Stars (20/1)
2009
***** American Trilogy (20/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had ran in a handicap.
10/10
Had achieved a RPR of 139 or more on a Left-Handed course.
9/10
Had between 4 and 14 hurdle races. [Arctic
Fire (17)]
9/10
Were rated between 134 and 139 by the handicapper. [Arctic
Fire (158)]
9/10
Had finished in the top 4 in either of their last 2 starts. [Wicklow
Brave swerved
at the start and was pulled-up just 6 days previous.]
8/10
Had carried less than 11-01 [Exceptions
11-04
and 11-12]
8/10
Were aged either 5 or 6. [Exceptions 8 & 9yo]
8
/10 Ran on the flat..
7/10
Had at least 4 runs in the season.
7/10
Were top 2 in at least 40% of their seasonal hurdles runs. [7 of the
last 8]
Additionally
53
of the last 57 winners had carried less than 11-03.
52
of the last 58 winners were younger than 8.
The
last 23 winners had handicap experience. Thumbs
Up in
1993 the last not to.
20
of the last 25 winners has raced at least 4 times in the season.
18
of the last 24 winners had raced within the last 5 weeks.
Jockeys
claiming 5lbs or more are 0/65 in the last 17 renewals. 2 did placed
last year.
Horses
dropping down in trip are 1/71 in the last 17 renewals
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
4-9-69
6yo
4-7-78
7yo
0-8-56
8yo
2-2-28
9yo
0-3-16
10yo
0-1-10
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 4-5-26
Paul
Nicholls 2-1-15
Dan
Skelton 2-0-6
Tony
Martin (Ire) 1-1-4
Philip
Hobbs 0-6-14
Alan
King 0-2-7
Jonjo
O’Neill 0-2-9
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 0-2-12
Contenders
***
Mohaayed (28/1)
***
We Have A Dream (25/1)
***
Western Ryder (18/1)
**
Mr Adjudicator (12/1)
**
Ch’tibello (8/1)
****
Lisp (25/1)
***
Whiskey Sour (9/2
fav)
***
Leoncavallo (16/1)
**
Mister Fizz (100/1)
***
Mitchouka (40/1)
**
Pingshou (33/1)
****
Sternrubin (33/1)
***** Crooks
Peak
(11/1)
****
Capitaine (12/1)
***** Cut
The Mustard
(14/1)
***** Eclair
De Beaufeu
(10/1)
***** Due
Reward
(33/1)
****
Storm Rising (40/1)
**
Countister (16/1)
***
High Expectations (40/1)
***** Monsieur
Lecoq
(9/1)
***** Thistle
Do Nicely
(33/1)
***
Magic Dancer (33/1)
***
Brex Drago (66/1)
****
Ar Mest (33/1)
**
Chieftain’s Choice (100/1)
Conclusion
There’s
a big spread on the handicap. Plenty at the bottom don’t appear
good enough, while those at the top should be carrying too much
weight. Mohaayed won last year, but this looks a fair bit
tougher. Of those at the top of the market, Whiskey Sour is
weak on the trends but with Willie Mullins in charge he has to be
respected. Ch’tibello has won a Scottish Champion Hurdle.
He’s also has a wind operation and is trained by Dan Skelton, who’s
has 2 of the last 3 winners (Mullins the other). The favourites look
strong this year. We could pick 10 in this and not find the winner,
so 1 selection today.
Selections
ECLAIR
DE BEAUFEU @ 12/1, bet365, William Hill 5 places.
ALBERT
BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
(REGISTERED
AS THE SPA NOVICES’ HURDLE)
2
Miles 7 Furlongs, 213 Yards, Grade 1 Novice Hurdle
Overview
A
very nice winner for us last year, Grade 2 winners with plenty of
hurdling experience still seems to be the way to go. Avoid those with
just 2 runs.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.0 stars
2018
***** Kilbricken Storm (33/1)
2017
***** Penhill (16/1)
2016
**** Unowhatimeanharry(11/1)
2015
***** Martello Tower (14/1)
2014
* Very Wood (33/1)
2013
***** At Fishers Cross (11/8 fav)
2012
**** Brindisi Breeze (7/1)
2011
**** Bobs Worth (15/8 fav)
2010
** Berties Dream (33/1)
2009
***** Weapons Amnesty (8/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had raced over hurdles at least 3 times.
10/10
Hadn't run for at least 27 days. Last 10 winners had also ran within
the last 78.
9/10
Were aged between 6 and 8. [Very
Wood (5yo)]
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 150 or more. [Very
Wood (143)]
9/10
Were rated within 12lbs or the RP Top Rated. [Very
Wood (18)]
9/10
Had placed at Cheltenham during the season (4 won) or had been
running in Ireland (4). [Brindisi
Breeze an
exception]
8/10
Had won at 3 miles. [Exceptions won over 2m41/2f]
8/10
Had won a Graded Hurdle. [Exceptions both Irish trained]
8/10
Had finished top 3 in a Grade 1 or 2 Hurdle last time. [Exceptions
were 4th
and won a Class 2 Handicap]
Additionally
13
of the 14 winners were aged 5-7.
13
of the 14 winners finished top 4 in a Grade 1 or 2 hurdle last time.
13
of the 14 winners had won over 2m4f+.
12
of the last 13 winners finished in the top 3 last time.
12
of the 14 winners had run in a 3m Hurdle.
11
of the last 13 winners had won a Graded Hurdle.
34
of the 42 placed horses finish in the top 2 last time.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
1-3-37
6yo
5-12-94
7yo
3-2-33
8yo
1-3-13
9yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 1-4-30
Nicky
Henderson 1-3-12
Colin
Tizzard 1-1-7
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 0-2-5
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-2-9
Contenders
**
Allaho (15/2)
Just
2 Hurdle starts and a 5 year old. 2 reasons to oppose him here.
**
Ask Ben (22/1)
Beaten
10 lengths by Lisnagor
Oscar, hard
to see a turnaround here.
**
Aye Aye Charlie (40/1)
Been
found wanting in last 2 races, this is much tougher.
**
Birchdale (5/1
fav)
Only
2 runs and a 5 years old, who hasn’t won this far under rules.
***
Cap York (25/1)
Won
a handicap last time, beaten by Derrinross
and Defi Bleu the
time before.
****
Commander Of Fleet (15/2)
Form
over shorter, but better profile in this than some. He’s only 5 as
well.
*
Darlac (100/1)
2nd
behind Alsa Mix once,
bad runs since on this sort of ground.
***** Derrinross
(10/1)
Improving,
won a Grade 2 over 3 miles last time. Never run on good/soft.
*
Dickie Diver (8/1)
Very
short for a 2 raced novice over 2m 3f in Class 4 hurdles, will like
the ground better than many in this.
***
Dinons (12/1)
All
going well with 5 wins in a row. He was pretty unlucky last time in
Grade 3 company, doing well to stand up and finished 7th.
Ground won’t be a problem, but lack of good Graded form in the
book.
*
Dorrels Pierji
(40/1)
Looks
like this is too far for him and is easily ignored.
**
First Approach (33/1)
Found
wanting in Graded company as has to be ignored.
***** Lisnagor
Oscar
(13/2)
Everything
points to a big run today and the ground is fine for him.
*
Minella
Indo
(40/1)
Yet
to win on his only 2 starts. 2nd
behind Allaho
in a Grade 3, so going the right way, but needs more experience.
***
Nadaitak (33/1)
Won
a Grade 2 over 3 Miles on Good ground. 3 good runs all at Doncaster
and only a 5 year old.
***
Rhinestone (12/1)
Bumper
fancy last year, you don’t get many of them in this. Good 2nd
behind Commander Of Fleet
in Grade 1 last time, but this is further and harder.
**
Rockpoint (33/1)
Grade
2 winner (beating Lisnagor
Oscar) here over
3 miles in December. Disappointing since, but both of those on good
ground. Had 12 starts, but that is a good thing in this. Enters
equation. Colin Tizzard, 0 winners at the meeting so far, last year
was the same and 50 mins later he had 2.
*
Stoney Mountain
(25/1)
2nd
and 3rd
in Grade Hurdles
**
Also Mix (50/1)
Grade
2 winner over 2m 4f, yet to run over this far. Well behind Champ last
time..
**
Salsaretta (20/1)
Unseated
last time, but not seen anything to suggest she can win this.
Conclusion
Purely
looking for Graded winners over 3 miles or so that have run in at
least 3 races, we have: Commander Of Fleet (2m6), Derrinross,
Lisnagar Oscar, Nadaitak and Rockpoint. With
Derrinross’s form on softer I’ll take him out. 2
favourites and 2 33/1 shots.
Selections
ROCKPORT
@ 33/1, skybet, betvictor,
betway 4 places
NADAITAK
@ 33/1, Ladbrokes, Betway,
betfret/tote, betvictor, 4 places
MAGNERS
CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE
3
Miles 2 Furlongs, 70 Yards, Grade 1 Chase
Overview
Native
River
improved on his 3rd
in 2017 to outstay Might
Bite
in an epic duel. The latter has been poor all season and that race
may have left its mark as it does on many a horse in this attritional
contest. Native
River
has come out of it ok and heads there with a chance of completing
back to backs for the first time since Best
Mate’s
hat-trick.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.5 stars
2018
**** Native River (5/1)
2017
***** Sizing John (7/1)
2016
***** Don Cossack (9/4 fav)
2015
***** Coneygree (7/1)
2014
*** Lord Windermere (20/1)
2013
***** Bobs Worth (11/4 fav)
2012
***** Synchronised (8/1)
2011
***** Long Run (7/2 fav)
2010
*** Imperial Commander (7/1)
2009
***** Kauto Star (7/4 fav)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had a Grade 1 Chase win under their belt. 9 at 3 miles or more.
10/10
Were aged between 6 and 9 years old.
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 172+ for this race. [Lord
Windermere (161)]
9/10
Had won a chase over 3 miles or more. [Imperial
Commander won
a 3m PtP.]
9/10
Had raced between 2 and 5 times that season. [Exceptions, once only]
8/10
Had recorded a seasonal Graded Chase win. [Exceptions were 2nd
and
6th
in
Grade 1’s]
8/10
Had won last time out. [Exceptions 5th
and
6th
in
a Grade 1.]
8/10
Were rated within 12lbs of the RP Top Rated. [Exceptions, 15 &
24lbs]
8/10
Had been placed at a previous festival, 5 in the RSA Chase. [1
exception fell, the other hadn’t been to the festival]
7/10
Had less than 11 Chase starts. [Exceptions 12, 18 & previous
winner, 20 ]
Additionally
27
of the last 31 winners were top 4 last time
25
of the last 28 winners had raced at least twice that season.
23
of the last 25 winners were aged 7 to 9.
The
last 18 winners had all won a Grade 1 Chase.
18
of the last 20 winners had won that season.
17
of the last 19 winners had an OR of 166 or more.
16
of the last 18 winners were all from the front 3 in the betting.
16
of the last 18 winners had finished top 2 last time.
17
of the last 21 winners were placed at a previous festival.
14
of the last 17 winners had been off for 65 days or less.
13
of the last 18 winners had finished top two at a festival
14
of the last 27 winners were second season chasers.
93
of the last 96 horses beaten in the race, were beaten again. [Native
River (3rd
in 2017), Kauto
Star (regaining
the trophy) and See
More Business (c/o)]
No
horse aged 11 or more has won since 1969.
Only
3 horses have won with less than 6 Chase starts since 1963.
No
winner has run on heavy ground in his winning season this century.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
1-1-3
7yo
1-7-20
8yo
4-3-38
9yo
4-4-40
10yo
0-3-17
11yo
0-2-9
12yo
0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 2-3-10
Paul
Nicholls 1-4-21
Jonjo
O’Neill 1-2-6
Colin
Tizzard 1-1-4
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 0-5-16
David
Bridgwater 0-2-4
Contenders
***
Al Boum Photo (16/1)
Would
have won the Champion Novice last season but for an aberration by the
jockey, quiet campaign this time around. Ground could be a concern.
Should be shorter in the market.
***
Anibale Fly (22/1)
3rd
last year, 4th
in the Grand National, 2 runs over shorter this season, but is the
ground drying up for him to be at his best.
***** Bellshill
(10/1)
3rd
in the RSA 2 years ago, went for the Irish Grand National last year
and was going really well before just running out of puff and jumping
left impeding some horses. Came of age in the Punchestown Gold Cup
and has to be on any shortlist today.
****
Bristol De Mai (22/1)
He
probably is a Haydock or early season horse now, having started well
and not gone on the last couple of seasons. 21 Chase starts now and a
feeling at Cheltenham isn’t his course. Fell in the King George and
is passed over today.
****
Clan Des Obeaux (5/1)
Shock
winner of the King George, but looked like a Gold Cup winner since
then. 13 starts and a lack of placed Festival form his only
negatives.
**
Definitily Red (66/1)
Flat-track
horse who falls short at the highest level, 6th
last year after struggling early on.
*
Double
Shuffle
(150/1)
Shock
2nd
in the King George in 2017, as he didn’t look a 3 mile horse, good
2nd
at Kempton last time (top weight), but hasn’t won a Grade 1 and a
bit exposed now. 150/1 though… thats a big price.
***
Elegant Escape (14/1)
Welsh
National winner, would have caught Frodon (won yesterday) in another
50 yards last time albeit over a trip Frodon was trying for the first
time. Stays all day but must worry that the ground won’t play to
his strengths now.
***
Invitation Only (33/1)
Thyestes
winners have to be respected, but thy don’t win this. Lacks the
class of some of the others and looks stables 4th string.
***** Kemboy
(10/1)
Won
the ‘Savills’ Chase at Christmas, off since but ground will be
fine and he has a great chance.
***
Might Bite (12/1)
Ran
really well last year, but as with many it looks like its left its
mark as he has struggled this season, hard to see him featuring, but
had a wind operation since his 7th
in the King George.
****
Native River (9/2)
3rd
and 1st
in the last 2 runnings. Hasn’t won this season (3rd
in King George) , but had run well. Thorough stayer on heavy and
ground could be too quick now.
****
Presenting Percy (4/1
fav)
What
can you say, unconvention trainer, trains horse unconventionally. 1
run this year over hurdles (good win). Won at last 2 festivals,
including the RSA Chase. Got to go close.
****
Thistlecrack (16/1)
Back
to near his best with 2nd
in the King George, however he is now 11 (no winner since 1969).
*
Yala
Enki
(150/1)
3rd
in Welsh National, well beaten last time, can’t fancy at the
highest level.
***
Shattered Love (28/1)
JLT
winner for us last year, does get 7lbs off for the girls, but 34
lengths behind Kemboy at Christmas
Conclusion
The
ground could be going against Native River. Not going to put you off
Presenting Percy or Clan Des Obeaux, but there are 2
horses in behind who should also be in the reckoning. Kemboy
and Bellshill. Both about 10/1 and done all that can be asked
of your usual winner. Al Boum Photo for each-way players.
Selections
BELLSHILL
@ 12/1, Betway, 4 places
AL
BOUM PHOTO @ 16/1. Skybet,
betvictor, betfred/tote 4 places
ST
JAMES’S PLACE FOXHUNTER CHALLENGE CUP OPEN HUNTERS’ CHASE
3
Miles 2 Furlongs, 70 Yards, Class 2 Chase
Overview
The
trends have taken a battering with older horses coming to the fore.
I’ve restructured it to make it more releveant. It’s still not
perfect. Anyway, back to the race. It remains to be seen whether
Pacha Du Polder
can make a hat-trick. I wouldn’t bet against it.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.4 stars
2018
*** Pacha Du Polder (25/1)
2017
*** Pacha Du Polder (16/1)
2016
*** On The Fringe (13/8 fav)
2015
***** On The Fringe (6/1)
2014
***** Tammys Hill (15/2)
2013
***** Salsify (2/1 fav)
2012
**** Salsify (7/1)
2011
**** Zemsky (33/1)
2010
**** Baby Run (9/2 jt fav)
2009
* Cappa Bleu (11/2)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Sire or DamSire’s Stamina Index was 12.0 or more
9/10
Had won over 3 miles or more. [Pacha
Du Polder was
3rd
in
2016]
9/10
Had achieved a rating of 134+ over fences. [Cappa
Bleu no
runs under rules]
9/10
Top 3 last time out. [On
The Fringe,
7th]
9/10
Had run within the last 41 days. The last 8, 20-41. [ Exception off
for at least 320 days had been Point-to-Pointing.
9/10
Had raced over at least 17 races in career. [Exception: Cappa
Bleu
with just 4 Point-to Points]
8/10
Were aged between 7 and 10. [Both exceptions won were former winners,
both aged 11]]
7/10
Had not achieved an OR of 141 or more in their career. [Exceptions,
the last 3 years including 2 former winners]
7/10
Started their career in either Point-to-Points or Hunter Chases.
[Exceptions, 2 flat runners and a bumper]
7/10
Were rated within 9lbs of the Adjusted RPR. [Including the last 6]
Additionally
24
of the last 25 winners had won under rules.
25
of the last 29 winners started their career in Point to Points or
Hunter Chases.
24
of the last 28 winners were aged 10 or less.
24
of the last 33 winners had won last time.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
0-0-3
7yo
2-0-17
8yo
2-4-33
9yo
1-6-41
10yo
3-5-50
11yo
2-5-48
12yo
0-1-33
13yo
0-0-8
14yo
0-0-3
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Enda
Bolger (Ire) 2-1-6
Rodger
Sweeney (Ire) 2-0-4
Paul
Nicholls 2-1-14
Colin
McBratney (Ire) 0-2-3
Warren
Greatrex 0-2-4
James
J Mangan (Ire) 0-2-4
Philip
Rowley 0-2-5
Contenders
**
Ardkilly Witness
(150/1)
Aged
13 and shouldn’t be good enough.
**
Asockastar
(66/1)
Ground
in his favour. 11 year old and not good enough on what we’ve seen.
**
Balnaslow
(40/1)
12
now, but runs pretty well here. 7th
last year before winning at Aintree.
***
Caid Du Berlais (7/1)
Ran
12 days ago, 5th
last year. Short enough in market.
*
Chosen
Dream
(50/1)
Not
rated as good as your usual winner, better on better ground.
****
Coastal Tiep (33/1)
Form
in small fields, pulled up here in December.
**
Cousin Pete (33/1)
11
year old lightly raced. Hard to fancy today.
*
Dont Do
Mondays (150/1)
Pulled
up 12 days ago, can’t see this 12 year old featuring.
*
Double
Whammy
(80/1)
13
year old. Off for 292 days. Sire Index a bit low but has won over
3m6f.
***** Haymount
(18/1)
Was
with Willie Mullins recently, no form to speak of and while he’s a
5 star, trainer need to get him going from the start. Gina Andrews
has won at the Festival.
****
Hazel Hill (5/1)
Being
11 is a worry, but in winning form on differing ground.
***
Just Cause (100/1)
Shouldn’t
be good enough, not winning in Hunter Chases softer than this.
**
One Conemara (150/1)
Another
not winning and is 11.
**
Pacha Du Polder (16/1)
Won
the last 2 years. Only 5th
(55 lengths behind Road To Rome)
last time, be a fool to dismiss but age will catchup with him one
day.
***** Road
To Rome
(15/2)
Bang
in form, top Gold Cup winning amateur on board.
*
Samanntom
(80/1)
11yo.
Bang out of form until good 2nd
to Ucello
Conti
last time. Shouldn’t be good enough though.
***** Shantou
Flyer
(15/2)
Proper
Graded horse in his day. Put on the shortlist.
***
Some Are Lucky (50/1)
Shouldn’t
stay and one to oppose.
**
Southfield Theatre (40/1)
Another
good horse in his day, but form of PP3P puts you off. Now he’s 11.
***
Stand Up And Fight (9/2
jt fav)
Irish
raider. Won last time, but P4P is a worry (4th
was last of 4), yet he was a 4 length 2nd
to Al Boum Photo (Gold Cup hopeful) over Graded Hurdles just 2 years
ago.
***
Sybarite (100/1)
Aged
13 now and well beaten recently.
*
Timewaitsfornoone
(40/1)
Off
for a while now, well beaten by Caid
Du Berlais
when last seen and just 3 runs in career. May be one for next year.
*
Top
Wood
(33/1)
Pulled
up in only run of this season. 2nd
last year, so respected but he’s now 12.
****
Ucello Conti (9/2
jt fav)
Places
or doesn’t finish, won the last 2 though. 11 year old now.
Conclusion
Not
everyone’s cup of tea, Favourites looks sturdy.
Selections
ROAD
TO ROME @ 8/1 general
HAYMOUNT
@ 22/1, 188bet, 3 places. 16 general, 4 places.
JOHNNY
HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL
CHALLENGE
CUP HANDICAP CHASE
2
Miles 62 Yards, Grade 3 Handicap Chase
Overview
Another
race where the trends have take a battering. Recent winners are
carrying more weight, are happy to have been off the track since the
turn of the year and had been due to run in the previous year’s
renewal. We are still looking for unexposed types with 3-5 season
runs who’ve been running well without winning in the year in
addition.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.4 stars
2018
*** Le Prezien (15/2)
2017
*** Rock The World (10/1)
2016
***** Solar Impulse (28/1)
2015
**** Next Sensation (16/1)
2014
*** Savello (16/1)
2013
***** Alderwood (3/1 fav)
2012
***** Bellvano (20/1)
2011
*** Oiseau Du Nuit (40/1)
2010
***** Pigeon Island (16/1)
2009
**** Oh Crick (7/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had won over 2 miles 1 furlong or more.
10/10
Were aged between 6 and 9 years old.
9/10
Had raced less than 13 times over fences. [Oiseau
Du Nuit,
20 runs]
8/10
Finished in the top 3 in one of their last 2 completed races.
8/10
Had raced at a previous festival.
8/10
Hadn’t won this season. [both exceptions won Novice Chases]
7/10
Carried less than 11-01. [The last 6 did carry over 10-10]
7/10
Were officially rated between 138 and 147. [The last 8 rated 138-150]
7/10
Had raced between 3 & 5 times since August.
Additionally
19
of the last 20 winners had raced less than 13 times over fences.
18
of the last 19 winners were aged 10 or less.
15
of the last 19 winners had carried under 11-01 (incl claimers)
22
of the last 28 winners had raced within 45 days.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-1-5
6yo
2-2-23
7yo
2-10-48
8yo
3-7-53
9yo
3-2-41
10yo
0-3-29
11yo
0-3-15
12yo
0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Paul
Nicholls 2-0-16
Nicky
Henderson 1-7-25
Michael
Scudamore 1-1-3
Jessica
Harrington (Ire) 1-1-5
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 1-1-9
Colin
Tizzard 1-1-10
Alan
King 1-1-10
Kerry
Lee 0-2-2
Noel
Meade (Ire) 0-2-2
Arthur
Moore (Ire) 0-2-4
David
Pipe 0-2-8
Venetia
Williams 0-2-13
Contenders
**
Forest Bihan (22/1)
*
Gino
Trail
(16/1)
**
Le Prezien (10/1)
**
Magic Saint (9/2
fav)
**
Bun Doran (14/1)
***
Diakali (28/1)
****
Tree Of Liberty (25/1)
****
Whatswrongwithyou (8/1)
***
Caid Du Lin (20/1)
*
The
Flyingportrait (40/1)
***
Top Gamble (20/1)
**
Champagne At Tara (33/1)
***
Mind’s Eye (9/1)
***
Mr Medic (25/1)
****
Theo (33/1)
**
Marracudja (16/1)
**
Croco Bay (66/1)
****
Not Another Muddle (13/2)
****
Brelan D’As (14/1)
***
All Set To Go (50/1)
Conclusion
No
4 stars. We have the top 3 from last years renewal back. That is
usually top form so Le Prezien, Gino Trail and Top
Gamble bring that to the table. Age and weight are against their
chances this season. Brelan Da’s was behind Siruh Du Lac
(won yesterday) over a trip too far in January, back down in trip he
won another Novice Chase and looks a solid option. Not Another
Muddle, is short enough for Gary Moore (just 2 wins in last 3
weeks). Theo has been
unplaced in Grade 2 chases this season, but the handicapped looks to
have him in his grip still. Whatswrongwithyou
has a similar Novice profile to Brelan Da’s
(who beat him earlier in season) Brelan Da’s now 9lbs better off.
For not winning, Tree Of Liberty is
still harshly treated. Magic Saint won
last time, up 7lbs for that. Still progressive, but would have got in
without that rise. Bun Doran ran well (6th
) in this 2 years ago, but is too high in the Weights.
Selections
BRELAN
DA’S @ 12/1, marathonbet, 4 places
MARTIN
PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’
HANDICAP
HURDLE
2
Miles 4 Furlongs, 56 Yards, Class 2 Handicap Hurdle
Overview
Gordon
Elliott’s horse have to be respected, well Gigginstown’s horses.
He has Dallas Des Pictons and Defi Bleu.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.5 stars
2017
**** Champagne Classic (12/1)
2016
**** Ibis Du Rheu (14/1)
2015
***** Killultagh Vic (7/1)
2014
***** Don Poli (12/1)
2013
***** Salubrious (16/1)
2012
***** Attaglance (20/1)
2011
**** Sir Des Champs (9/2 fav)
2010
***** Pause And Clause (14/1)
2009
***** Andytown (25/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Were officially rated between 133 and 144.
10/10
Had achieved an RPR of at least 136.
10/10
Had run within the last 52 days.
10/10
Carried a weight within 10lbs of the bottom weight.
9/10
Were aged either 5 or 6.
9/10
Had less than 10 hurdles starts.
9/10
Were 1st/2nd
season hurdlers. [Exception, Ibis
Du Rheu had
2 late runs in France before moving to Paul Nicholls]
9/10
Had finished in the top 3 in one of their last two starts. [Pause
And Clause was
out of the frame on all 4 runs that season]
Additionally
31
of the 40 horses in the top 4 were 1st/2nd
season hurdlers.
David
Pipe is 0/19 in the race named after his father. [1 place]
Horses
in headgear are 1/48. [Blow
By Blow
broke the duck last year]
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo
0-1-1
5yo
3-9-65
6yo
6-10-75
7yo
1-7-49
8yo
0-2-26
9yo
0-0-9
10yo
0-0-6
12yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 3-2-17
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 2-4-14
Paul
Nicholls 2-4-18
Nicky
Henderson 1-4-25
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-2-6
Philip
Hobbs 0-2-15
Contenders
*
Early
Doors
(7/1)
**
Acapella Bourgeois
(14/1)
**
If You Say Run
(20/1)
*
Mr
Antolini
(25/1)
****
Getareason
(12/1)
****
Dallas
Des Pictons (7/2
fav)
***
Coolanly (33/1)
***
Style De Garde (28/1)
****
Defi Bleu
(12/1)
****
Pym
(16/1)
**
Daybreak Boy
(16/1)
*
Garo
De Juilley
(40/1)
**
Discordantly
(18/1)
**
Cartwright
(11/1)
*
Mount
Mews
(28/1)
**
Big Time Dancer
(18/1)
****
Le Musee
(40/1)
**
Not That Fuisse
(25/1)
*
Sakhee’s
City
(66/1)
**
Doctor Dex
(33/1)
*
Burrows
Park
(28/1)
***
Casa Tall (50/1)
*
Kapgarry
(66/1)
**
Champagne Court
(40/1)
Conclusion
Hold
up horses fare well and with limited trends it went to 5 and6 year
olds. Blow By Blow lead most of the way and was a 7 year old. Blow By
Blow was Gigginstown, so perhaps they can be afforded whatever
exceptions you like. Dallas Des Pictons and Defi Bleu
are both rated highly and could probably be backed blind. The weights
are spread out and every winner has been within 10lbs of the bottom
weight. As no winner has come from under 11 stone and the bottom 7
are lower than 135 I think it’s best to stick with those nearer the
top off the card. We still want to be on the side of the lightly
raced types though. Le Musee has handicap form tied in with
Champ (2nd
wednesday), however he needs softer ground. Pym was a
fancied bumper prospect last season, but didn’t live up to that
hype. Ran well at the course earlier in a Grade 2. Nicky Henderson’s
had plenty of darts at this though and hasn’t won since Andytown in
2009. Defi Bleu has been 2nd and 3rd in
Graded races. He’ll be better on this ground. Dallas Des
Pictons, looks good to me. Not perfect because of the bottom
weight stat. Ignore that. Getareason for Willie Mullins, has
Graded Novice form, worry is that those winners haven’t fired at
the festival.
Dallas
Des Pictons is already the red hot favourite. 7/2 in a
competitive handicap isn’t my game, he’s a worthy favourite,
however.
Selections
DEFI
BLEU @ 16/1, William Hill, betvictor, Blacktype, 5 places
GETAREASON
@ 14/1, Skybet 6 places
