Hope you all had a good Christmas... Now lets nail the bookies in 2009. Well Vegas was a bit up and down. The poker was excellent and the rest of the gambling was poor, but a great time was enjoyed by all regardless of the losses. I must give up the stupid games.. So no more Roulette, Pai Gow, 3 card poker or machines. Think I'll play some cash next time :-)
Looks a good couple of jumping cards today.
Newbury
2.10 Looks a race between Dave's Dream (4/5f) and China Gold (4/1). Both should improve for this. Now you know I don't bet shorter than 3/1 in general, so I think China Gold holds the value in this. This will be Dave's Dream's hardest test so far and I couldn't back him at odds on.
China Gold is overpriced.
2.45 A big race for Diamond Harry (8/11f). Massasoit (11/4, bluesq) will give him his biggest test so far. A race to watch methinks.
3.15 Royal Kicks was 12/1 with Paddy Power an hour ago, but I missed that and had to settle for 10/1. Being backed this morning and only Ladbrokes and Boylesports have him at 10/1. Think he will start 6/1ish. Suzy Smith seems to have found the answer and is well worth backing at this price.
3.50 I don't usually do bumpers, but Fabian The Fox is 25/1 with sportingbet, which is one of the most ridiculous prices of the year. Didn't do badly on debut and is 8/1 with bet365. Get on for a sporting e/w or back to lay bet.
Musselburgh
12.45 I fancy Seize (4/1) to bounce back from an average start to the season. Will relish the ground and is decent value in my book. Greenock is 25/1 and shouldn't be. I've had a small interest on its price.
2.55 Categorical (3/1f) looks to have a good chance here. The 100/30 has gone now and this is on the edge of value for me.
3.30 Kyber (7/2jf) needs to shake off Bolodenka (7/2jf) to gain a deserved win. Pretty impressive first hurdle start for nearly 2 years after a flat campaign. The winner Viper looks useful.
Thats it.. Nail sportingbet on Fabian The Fox please.
11.13 update: Fabian is 16/1 with sportingbet..... still overpriced, silly fools
Monday 29 December 2008
Thursday 27 November 2008
48 hours to go....
Newbury
12.25 Cornelia (20/1, PP, SJ) looks fairly decent. May struggle to overcome the favourite Over Sixty, but a place is up for grabs. Up in grade after a confidence boosting win over 2m (at tough Towcester). This is back up to 2m 5f on a flatter track, where she can place. *Update - price changed, now BP 16/1 with Skybet, sportingbet and Ladbrokes*
1.30 Sovereign Spirit (18/1, sportingbet) Best efforts at Fontwell, but again, take out the fav, Parlesotho and he'd have a chance. Again up in class, but wants 2m 5f and probably further later in the season.
A few other bets at decent win odds today are.
Newbury 3.15 Kerrys Girl (9/2, general) Up in class today, but steady improvement and I'll take a chance at a nice price.
Taunton 2.15 Sassanias (10/1, bet365, boylesports, skybet, 7 run) Not saying he'll win, but 10/1 is an awfully big price if you want to take on The Nightingale (1/6f).
Uttoxeter 3.05 Flemon Loon (11/2, sportingbet, skybet) Though his Sedgefield run LTO was pretty impressive and a run up to that standard again will do the business.
Uttoxeter 3.35 Bleu Run (9/2, general) New connections might have found him a decent race here. Impressive 4th LTO. Luccombe Bay may have the wins, but don't think they were against much.
Toodle pip, won't be a blog for the Hennessey on saturday. Will be quiet for the next 2 weeks, I'd imagine ;-)
12.25 Cornelia (20/1, PP, SJ) looks fairly decent. May struggle to overcome the favourite Over Sixty, but a place is up for grabs. Up in grade after a confidence boosting win over 2m (at tough Towcester). This is back up to 2m 5f on a flatter track, where she can place. *Update - price changed, now BP 16/1 with Skybet, sportingbet and Ladbrokes*
1.30 Sovereign Spirit (18/1, sportingbet) Best efforts at Fontwell, but again, take out the fav, Parlesotho and he'd have a chance. Again up in class, but wants 2m 5f and probably further later in the season.
A few other bets at decent win odds today are.
Newbury 3.15 Kerrys Girl (9/2, general) Up in class today, but steady improvement and I'll take a chance at a nice price.
Taunton 2.15 Sassanias (10/1, bet365, boylesports, skybet, 7 run) Not saying he'll win, but 10/1 is an awfully big price if you want to take on The Nightingale (1/6f).
Uttoxeter 3.05 Flemon Loon (11/2, sportingbet, skybet) Though his Sedgefield run LTO was pretty impressive and a run up to that standard again will do the business.
Uttoxeter 3.35 Bleu Run (9/2, general) New connections might have found him a decent race here. Impressive 4th LTO. Luccombe Bay may have the wins, but don't think they were against much.
Toodle pip, won't be a blog for the Hennessey on saturday. Will be quiet for the next 2 weeks, I'd imagine ;-)
Saturday 22 November 2008
Who want's to be a Multi-Millionaire?
The Scoop 6 rolls over again. Surely worth £2 of anyone's money to win £3m. I'll have a few pounds on it but won't go mad. The 6 races are
2.10 Lingfield
2.40 Lingfield
2.45 Haydock
3.20 Lingfield
3.30 Huntingdon
3.50 Lingfield
2.10 Lingfield
This doesn't look too bad to me, I've narrowed it down to 4 here :-) . Atlantic Star (9/2f), Beat The Bell (8/1), Swift Gift (9/1) and Ebraam (9/1). Markab looks to take them along but don't think he's good enough. My Gacho won this week, but isn't one to rely on. A big outsider is course specialist Fajr (28/1, Hills), who's won 7 of his 11 races around here.
2.40 Lingfield
A little bit tougher here. Only half a dozen here. I really think Secret Night (7/1) is pretty strong here. Jennie Jerome (6/1f) has a chance, but I think I'll leave that one out as she's only won 1 in 7 and makes her AW debut today. Everything else in single figures has a chance here and it's worth your while sticking to the front of the market.
2.45 Haydock
If Osako D'airy (4/1f) doesn't win, a few tickets will be torn up. He has a pretty decent chance but there are a few horses to threaten him. The Morning Line raving about Possol, but he steps up to 3m for the first time. Glasker Mill (9/1) and I Hear Thunder (14/1) look overpriced to me and should be up there. 2 horses who haven't hit the heights of a couple of years ago are Mon Mome (25/1) and Naunton Brook (16/1). Both shouldn't win, but can do if they fancy it.
3.20 Lingfield
I like the look of Bronze Cannon (5/1jf), who looked a class act 6 months ago. Need to refind it here. It's a pricewise horse, so It will probably be best if it didn't win. We don't want the £2 RP readers to still be in after 4 legs. Baharah (5/1jf) and Re Barolo (13/2) come next and have good chances. Harvest Queen (11/1) and Adjar (14/1) are the best of the outsiders.
3.30 Huntingdon
This is the acid test. I'll stick to which ones can't win. Er.... um.... none of them. They all have a chance.... arse. I won't put you off. The only horse above 16/1 that I would consider putting in is, Lowe Go (25/1). This should go to one of the top 9 in the betting .... hehe
3.50 Lingfield
A little easier if you are still in. Just Chief Editor (9/2) and Prohibit (5/1) for me. Will be opposing Ceremonial Jade (100/30f). Barry Dennis agrees with me and that's all I needed to know.
I'll add any other non-Scoop 6 fancies later on this morning if there are any.
Football
The footie did ok last week. Nice win for the Villa @ 7/1. Hope you were on. Carlsile, Derby and Darlo all won. Of course Spurs decided to play crap and Blackburn couldn't hold onto their Ht lead.
This week there is very little about. Man City (23/10, Hills) play Arsenal (11/8, VC, PP) and both teams offer value.
Backing Preston again. They are 10/11 (Betfred, Skybet) at home to Barnsley. After throwing away a 2 goal lead away at home to Southampton and busting all my trebles, I'm giving them 1 more chance.
Hereford (6/4, Skybet, PP, Coral, Lads) can beat Northampton. It's risky, but Hereford aren't that bad. Although Northampton are a tricky side to play against.
Scunthorpe (6/4, Skybet) are playing Leicester at home. Top of the table clash. Scunthorpe are a good side and Leicester are wobbling..... Get on..
A Skybet risky treble looks on the cards.
I had to double-take while going through the NFL handicaps. Miami are a 1pt favourite against the Patriots. Now the Fins are my team, and we all know Brady is out for the season, however surely the Pats should still be favs. Oh well, I've had a small interest. My Titans bet is looking good. 10/1 with extrabet to win the division, they host the Jets in a tough game this week. Hoping to close that one soon.
2.10 Lingfield
2.40 Lingfield
2.45 Haydock
3.20 Lingfield
3.30 Huntingdon
3.50 Lingfield
2.10 Lingfield
This doesn't look too bad to me, I've narrowed it down to 4 here :-) . Atlantic Star (9/2f), Beat The Bell (8/1), Swift Gift (9/1) and Ebraam (9/1). Markab looks to take them along but don't think he's good enough. My Gacho won this week, but isn't one to rely on. A big outsider is course specialist Fajr (28/1, Hills), who's won 7 of his 11 races around here.
2.40 Lingfield
A little bit tougher here. Only half a dozen here. I really think Secret Night (7/1) is pretty strong here. Jennie Jerome (6/1f) has a chance, but I think I'll leave that one out as she's only won 1 in 7 and makes her AW debut today. Everything else in single figures has a chance here and it's worth your while sticking to the front of the market.
2.45 Haydock
If Osako D'airy (4/1f) doesn't win, a few tickets will be torn up. He has a pretty decent chance but there are a few horses to threaten him. The Morning Line raving about Possol, but he steps up to 3m for the first time. Glasker Mill (9/1) and I Hear Thunder (14/1) look overpriced to me and should be up there. 2 horses who haven't hit the heights of a couple of years ago are Mon Mome (25/1) and Naunton Brook (16/1). Both shouldn't win, but can do if they fancy it.
3.20 Lingfield
I like the look of Bronze Cannon (5/1jf), who looked a class act 6 months ago. Need to refind it here. It's a pricewise horse, so It will probably be best if it didn't win. We don't want the £2 RP readers to still be in after 4 legs. Baharah (5/1jf) and Re Barolo (13/2) come next and have good chances. Harvest Queen (11/1) and Adjar (14/1) are the best of the outsiders.
3.30 Huntingdon
This is the acid test. I'll stick to which ones can't win. Er.... um.... none of them. They all have a chance.... arse. I won't put you off. The only horse above 16/1 that I would consider putting in is, Lowe Go (25/1). This should go to one of the top 9 in the betting .... hehe
3.50 Lingfield
A little easier if you are still in. Just Chief Editor (9/2) and Prohibit (5/1) for me. Will be opposing Ceremonial Jade (100/30f). Barry Dennis agrees with me and that's all I needed to know.
I'll add any other non-Scoop 6 fancies later on this morning if there are any.
Football
The footie did ok last week. Nice win for the Villa @ 7/1. Hope you were on. Carlsile, Derby and Darlo all won. Of course Spurs decided to play crap and Blackburn couldn't hold onto their Ht lead.
This week there is very little about. Man City (23/10, Hills) play Arsenal (11/8, VC, PP) and both teams offer value.
Backing Preston again. They are 10/11 (Betfred, Skybet) at home to Barnsley. After throwing away a 2 goal lead away at home to Southampton and busting all my trebles, I'm giving them 1 more chance.
Hereford (6/4, Skybet, PP, Coral, Lads) can beat Northampton. It's risky, but Hereford aren't that bad. Although Northampton are a tricky side to play against.
Scunthorpe (6/4, Skybet) are playing Leicester at home. Top of the table clash. Scunthorpe are a good side and Leicester are wobbling..... Get on..
A Skybet risky treble looks on the cards.
I had to double-take while going through the NFL handicaps. Miami are a 1pt favourite against the Patriots. Now the Fins are my team, and we all know Brady is out for the season, however surely the Pats should still be favs. Oh well, I've had a small interest. My Titans bet is looking good. 10/1 with extrabet to win the division, they host the Jets in a tough game this week. Hoping to close that one soon.
Saturday 15 November 2008
2 Mill up for grabs....
No time to talk today..... have some footie value in these 5..
Spurs @ Fulham @ 5/4
Blackburn vs Sunderland @ 11/10
Derby vs Sheff Wed @ evs
Carlisle vs Brighton @ 6/4
Darlington vs Lincoln @ 10/11
Also Aston Villa are 7/1 @ Skybet to win at Arsenal. Suddenly Arsenal are a great team again, I don't think so, they still have the same soft underbelly and Villa are solid with some decent players. Far too big.
The 6 Scoop 6 races are
Cheltenham 2.00
Cheltenham 2.35
Wetherby 2.55
Cheltenham 3.10
Wetherby 3.25
Cheltenham 3.45
2.00 Cheltenham
Looks like you'll need to chose from, Halcon Generlardais, Joe Lively, Parsons Legacy, Comply Or Die and Flintoff. Joe Lively for me
2.35 Cheltenham
19 of last 25 winner have come from first 4 in the betting. So at the moment, you are looking at Silverburn, Barbers Shop, Imperial Commander and Bible Lord. Don't rule out Ouzbeck and Ashley Brook and Private Be are lively outsiders.
2.55 Wetherby
Rakalackey and Gold Heart look strong. Outsiders, Super Road Train, Trisons Star and Morgan Be could shock.
3.10 Cheltenham
I really fancy Copsale Lad (20/1, skybet) to cause an upset. Reckon there could be a big old winner in this race.
3.25 Wetherby
Knockavilla, Pay Attention, Heavenly Chorus or Good Spirit.
3.45 Cheltenham
Sunnyhillboy, Hernando Royal, Keki Buku or Oldrik.
Laters,
VH
Spurs @ Fulham @ 5/4
Blackburn vs Sunderland @ 11/10
Derby vs Sheff Wed @ evs
Carlisle vs Brighton @ 6/4
Darlington vs Lincoln @ 10/11
Also Aston Villa are 7/1 @ Skybet to win at Arsenal. Suddenly Arsenal are a great team again, I don't think so, they still have the same soft underbelly and Villa are solid with some decent players. Far too big.
The 6 Scoop 6 races are
Cheltenham 2.00
Cheltenham 2.35
Wetherby 2.55
Cheltenham 3.10
Wetherby 3.25
Cheltenham 3.45
2.00 Cheltenham
Looks like you'll need to chose from, Halcon Generlardais, Joe Lively, Parsons Legacy, Comply Or Die and Flintoff. Joe Lively for me
2.35 Cheltenham
19 of last 25 winner have come from first 4 in the betting. So at the moment, you are looking at Silverburn, Barbers Shop, Imperial Commander and Bible Lord. Don't rule out Ouzbeck and Ashley Brook and Private Be are lively outsiders.
2.55 Wetherby
Rakalackey and Gold Heart look strong. Outsiders, Super Road Train, Trisons Star and Morgan Be could shock.
3.10 Cheltenham
I really fancy Copsale Lad (20/1, skybet) to cause an upset. Reckon there could be a big old winner in this race.
3.25 Wetherby
Knockavilla, Pay Attention, Heavenly Chorus or Good Spirit.
3.45 Cheltenham
Sunnyhillboy, Hernando Royal, Keki Buku or Oldrik.
Laters,
VH
Saturday 1 November 2008
Oh what a wonderful morning
Yes, its here, real racing starts today.
A quick word on the last blog... Please ignore any 'value' laying Chelsea, they are obviously far too good for most teams.... Thanks...
Stimulation won, Shaweel did not, 4th every time I back him unfortunately.
Ascot
1.35 The first of the Scoop 6 races. I think Ladbrokes are out of line with their 7/1 quote about Blue Bajan. Definitely overpriced. The market probably has it spot on with Font (7/2) and The Polomoche (11/2). A horse I follow, Leslingtaylor is 14/1 for this but is best watched on this occasion. Blue Bajan has it all in his favour today at a nice price. Nail the Magic Sign for their foolishness.
1.35 The horse to look at here is Air Force One (3/1f), who should be one for your Ten To Follow lists. A nice horse who's jumping has improved every race. I'll have my beady eye on Abragante (5/1) too as he was a decent chaser last season. 2 horses is this that have an interesting past are Charlie's Future (20/1) & Out The Black (22/1). Check out the finish to their race at Exeter 2 years ago.
http://www.attheraces.com/form.aspx?raceid=123751&meetingid=&date=2006-10-31&ref=form&refsite=
I was on Doc Row and walked out the betting shop in disgust and missed it... lol
Charlie's Future has the edge in their clashes but is running in a Class 2 for the first time today. Out The Black actually has C&D form, loves the ground, has won in this class before. Could be a big priced outsider to be honest. hmmmmm....
Newmarket
2.10 Looks a good but tough 2yo race on paper. A quick guess from me. Either Burgundy Ice (5/1f) and Rosy Mantle (6/1). Dream In Waiting (25/1, Lads) is a big price and could offer some value.
3.20 Typical big old Scoop 6 handicap. I'm not going to waffle about all the chances. Zero Tolerance (20/1, Skybet) is the 2005 & 2006 winner. Has run pretty decently this season and is my value pick.
3.55 Can Bankable (11/4f, Lads, Sky) end this run... 5 seconds in a row, including a 2nd to Charlie Farnsbarns last time. Actually I think he has things in his favour today and he gets a thumbs up from me.
Wetherby
3.00 Very open race. Can only rule out the 2 outsiders. Petitfour (3/1) and Mobaasher (11/4f) are up and coming staying hurdlers, whilst Lough Derg (8/1) and Faasel (13/2, SJ) are the more wise stayers who haven't quite done the buisiness on a consistent basis. So ideally the 2 youngsters can start a new world order to challenge Inglis Drever for the World Hurdle.
There's very little e/w value floating around today, only a few 8/1 shots, but not big enough to recommend. Kauto Star runs at Down Royal today and the Scoop6 will be well worth winning today. Now for some football.
I earmarked 7 value selections today. I wouldn't put them into anything bigger than trebles.
Burnley vs Norwich (17/20, Betdirect/SJ)
Preston vs Southampton (4/5, general)
Huddersfield vs Crewe (5/6, Coral)
Stockport vs Carlisle (evs), betfred, Hills, PP)
Dag & Red vs Acrrington (4/5, general)
Exeter vs Chester (4/5, PP)
Shrewsbury vs Luton (4/5, bet365, Coral, SJ, Skybet)
have fun
A quick word on the last blog... Please ignore any 'value' laying Chelsea, they are obviously far too good for most teams.... Thanks...
Stimulation won, Shaweel did not, 4th every time I back him unfortunately.
Ascot
1.35 The first of the Scoop 6 races. I think Ladbrokes are out of line with their 7/1 quote about Blue Bajan. Definitely overpriced. The market probably has it spot on with Font (7/2) and The Polomoche (11/2). A horse I follow, Leslingtaylor is 14/1 for this but is best watched on this occasion. Blue Bajan has it all in his favour today at a nice price. Nail the Magic Sign for their foolishness.
1.35 The horse to look at here is Air Force One (3/1f), who should be one for your Ten To Follow lists. A nice horse who's jumping has improved every race. I'll have my beady eye on Abragante (5/1) too as he was a decent chaser last season. 2 horses is this that have an interesting past are Charlie's Future (20/1) & Out The Black (22/1). Check out the finish to their race at Exeter 2 years ago.
http://www.attheraces.com/form.aspx?raceid=123751&meetingid=&date=2006-10-31&ref=form&refsite=
I was on Doc Row and walked out the betting shop in disgust and missed it... lol
Charlie's Future has the edge in their clashes but is running in a Class 2 for the first time today. Out The Black actually has C&D form, loves the ground, has won in this class before. Could be a big priced outsider to be honest. hmmmmm....
Newmarket
2.10 Looks a good but tough 2yo race on paper. A quick guess from me. Either Burgundy Ice (5/1f) and Rosy Mantle (6/1). Dream In Waiting (25/1, Lads) is a big price and could offer some value.
3.20 Typical big old Scoop 6 handicap. I'm not going to waffle about all the chances. Zero Tolerance (20/1, Skybet) is the 2005 & 2006 winner. Has run pretty decently this season and is my value pick.
3.55 Can Bankable (11/4f, Lads, Sky) end this run... 5 seconds in a row, including a 2nd to Charlie Farnsbarns last time. Actually I think he has things in his favour today and he gets a thumbs up from me.
Wetherby
3.00 Very open race. Can only rule out the 2 outsiders. Petitfour (3/1) and Mobaasher (11/4f) are up and coming staying hurdlers, whilst Lough Derg (8/1) and Faasel (13/2, SJ) are the more wise stayers who haven't quite done the buisiness on a consistent basis. So ideally the 2 youngsters can start a new world order to challenge Inglis Drever for the World Hurdle.
There's very little e/w value floating around today, only a few 8/1 shots, but not big enough to recommend. Kauto Star runs at Down Royal today and the Scoop6 will be well worth winning today. Now for some football.
I earmarked 7 value selections today. I wouldn't put them into anything bigger than trebles.
Burnley vs Norwich (17/20, Betdirect/SJ)
Preston vs Southampton (4/5, general)
Huddersfield vs Crewe (5/6, Coral)
Stockport vs Carlisle (evs), betfred, Hills, PP)
Dag & Red vs Acrrington (4/5, general)
Exeter vs Chester (4/5, PP)
Shrewsbury vs Luton (4/5, bet365, Coral, SJ, Skybet)
have fun
Saturday 18 October 2008
about time too.
I do have a saturday off and I couldn't get a ticket to Aldershit. There is some excellent racing today though..... so I thought I'd bother to get off my arse and type some words.
Champions Day at Newmarket and a decent card at Cheltenham.
I had a 
(:bangheadsmile:) moment from yesterday. Note to self, when a horse you love and respect is running, don't ignore it. BACK IT. I'd already won on Charlie Farnsbarns as a 2 year old, at 25/1 and a 66/1 2nd to Authorised. He ran decently last week and he goes and bloody wins yesterday @ 50/1.... Sorry for the pause, I had to wipe a tear from my eye at the lost beer money...
(:bangheadsmile:) moment from yesterday. Note to self, when a horse you love and respect is running, don't ignore it. BACK IT. I'd already won on Charlie Farnsbarns as a 2 year old, at 25/1 and a 66/1 2nd to Authorised. He ran decently last week and he goes and bloody wins yesterday @ 50/1.... Sorry for the pause, I had to wipe a tear from my eye at the lost beer money...Righto...
Newmarket
2.05
Looks a good start to the day at Newmarket. I will probably go for Stimulation (5/1f) as he has the conditions to suit today and his Major contenders prefer it softer. Major Cadeaux (6/1, sportingbet) is one and last year's winner Al Qasi (14/1) another.
2.35
Now, let's get this nailed before I forget. Back Shaweel (12/1). Nice horse who won if you remember when I missed him. Rip Van Winkle (15/8f) looks opposable, and I will be. Nothing else to say really. Shaweel, Shaweel, Shaweel, Shaweel
3.10
The feature race of the day and it looks to be between 3 horses. New Approach (8/5f, sportingbet) is an obvious favourite, however he isn't my cup of tea with all the shenanigans that come with him. French raiders have an excellent record and the race and Russian Cross (4/1, SJ, tote) comes here in excellent form. Of the others, Pipedreamer (7/1, spbet, Sky, tote) has been running well without winning and looks to have the same fate again. Of the e/w priced runners, Traffic Guard (16/1, sportingbet) looks to be a few points overpriced as he ran New Approach close and can make the frame.
3.50
The Cesarewitch, a cracking race to end the season. The Morning Line tells me to ignore any horses drawn lower than 17. That's fine by me. I fancy Liberate (drawn 24), there's a little 9/1 floating around, but I expect that to go. Asker Tau (5/1) has won his last 5 but is drawn in 14. Bulwark (50/1) is one of those horses who only wins when you don't have the cash down and is drawn in a snug 21. Other drawn high and prominent in the betting are Arc Bleu (9/1 tote) and Gee Dee Nen (10/1). To be honest it's unbelievably open, so I can't dissuade you from backing anything. Last Year's winner is Leg Spinner (25/1), trouble is he's out of form, not greatly drawn and is up 10lbs on last year's win. One more in good form, but is drawn on the wrong side is Hits Only Vic (25/1).In his last 9 runs he's record is 11122211. Worth a punt?
5.35
A little value here if you believe that jockeys make awful tipsters. I do. Frankie is on Veracity (7/2f, Ladbrokes) here. I prefer stablemate Sagara (8/1, sky) at that price.
Cheltenham
3.25 Good race, a few out for the first time, but I don't think we should be worried about that. Patman Du Charmil (7/1) will drag them around and smash them into the ground... probably.
Fier Normand (13/2f, pagebet), can't have him myself. Think he should be watched today.
One horse in form, but has to step up on what he's done in the summer is Alphabetical (14/1). Wouldn't rule out, but should find this a lot tougher than Fontwell Park. Private Be (9/1, betfred) has to prove he can finish races first. Patman for me I think.
Kelso
3.15 One to watch today is Kalahari King. He's 4/5 but did good things at the tail end of the season. Could be one for your Ten To Follow lists if he cruises up today on his chase debut.
Weekend Footie
Middlesbrough looks a big 11/2 to beat Chelsea today. On their day they turn over the big sides regularly and Gareth Southgate's got them moulded into a team that's hard to beat. Chelsea are superb but have so many injuries that you can't stick them onto your bankers section. you can get 18/1 on the Smoggies winning 1-0, & 28/1 on 2-1. Worth a fiver?
Bolton to beat Blackburn @ 6/4 (Hills). Hmm, Bolton are back to their winning ways and Blackburn haven't really fired under Ince. 6/4 looks a big price on that basis. Could boost the old accumulator if it comes in.
Man City @ Newcastle @ 6/4 (Boyle, SJ, Betdirect) on Monday. Can JFK save Newcastle? They haven't scored whilst he's watched them :-) . Could be a 2-2 draw, but Man City look a little bit of value here.
Shrewsbury vs Bournemouth @ 4/5. Well they did lose to Port Vale (13/2) last week, but surely the Shrews ain't gonna let it happen twice. Bournemouth, are decent on their day, but @ 4/5 (sky, Bluesq) hopefully it won't be today.
Right that's it, a bacon sarnie for me...
Wednesday 17 September 2008
One bet tonight.
In the midst of the silly season so I'm wary of putting up too many selections. The 2 on monday ran on towards the end of their races without threatening the commentator. It may be worth following them again next time out. Please remind me lol..
Both my footie bets came in..... which was nice.
Today I may have found a bet. In the Kempton 7.50 runs Best Selection and he is 20/1 with Ladbrokes and 16/1 generally around. Now he's never won... hmmm, but is a nice horse who's been picking up some place money on the all-weather recently. The handicapper has dropped him to his lowest ever rating today after his 4th LTO over what I think was a 'strange' distance for him of 2m 1f . He's back over a mile and a half today and is too big to let pass without a value each way... Here's hoping for an under the radar touch from the Mongan's.
Both my footie bets came in..... which was nice.
Today I may have found a bet. In the Kempton 7.50 runs Best Selection and he is 20/1 with Ladbrokes and 16/1 generally around. Now he's never won... hmmm, but is a nice horse who's been picking up some place money on the all-weather recently. The handicapper has dropped him to his lowest ever rating today after his 4th LTO over what I think was a 'strange' distance for him of 2m 1f . He's back over a mile and a half today and is too big to let pass without a value each way... Here's hoping for an under the radar touch from the Mongan's.
Monday 15 September 2008
I can't get on..
I can't get on at Leicester today... Sporting Bet let me have a measly £6.06 ew on Mr Snowballs.. I wouldn't mind if they offered me the rest at reduced odds or moved the price in but its still 33/1 there... ho hum the price of success I suppose.... ps Blue Square have started it too... I thought better of a big firm Mr BS..... anyways
Leicester
2.30 Mr Snowballs is 33/1 with sportingbet. Now this horse is overpriced. I'm loathed to rush into 2 year olds, especially after 2 runs, but there is very little in this race and after a decent debut on soft at Windsor, if he runs to the standard he set there he should make the frame at a nice price.
The Lucky last at Musselburgh is where we go for our 2nd bet of the day. Some 16/1 is on offer from Ladbrokes for Summer Lodge and that should be taken. The RP says its not the most straightforward of horses and its never won on the flat before..... ner ner ner... I don't care about that crap... All I know is it's pretty well overpriced. 2 runs this season and 2 3rds. Ground suits, trip suits and I can't find a negative that says it won't run into a place today.
Leicester
2.30 Mr Snowballs is 33/1 with sportingbet. Now this horse is overpriced. I'm loathed to rush into 2 year olds, especially after 2 runs, but there is very little in this race and after a decent debut on soft at Windsor, if he runs to the standard he set there he should make the frame at a nice price.
The Lucky last at Musselburgh is where we go for our 2nd bet of the day. Some 16/1 is on offer from Ladbrokes for Summer Lodge and that should be taken. The RP says its not the most straightforward of horses and its never won on the flat before..... ner ner ner... I don't care about that crap... All I know is it's pretty well overpriced. 2 runs this season and 2 3rds. Ground suits, trip suits and I can't find a negative that says it won't run into a place today.
Saturday 13 September 2008
St Leger Day
The final classic of the season is here.. Fantastic..... Means the jumps are just around the corner..... :-)
Who's gonna win the big one....... Sorry can't answer that. Think it will be between 3 horses and there's nothing original in any of them. Frozen Fire (5/2f) looks the pick of them and is a fair price. Look Here (4/1) should prove a worthy challenger and Doctor Fremantle (7/1) has come in for some support this week. Sorry for the nothingness of the post but I can't pick 20/1 winners when they won't win.
And that's it..... No bets today, as its been for the week. No edge, nothing. The bookies finally catch up with me and there has been little value floating around. Bring on the proper racing.
Had a quick scan on the footie and in the Prem, Aston Villa away at Spurs look a big price. The bookies still think Spurs are a BIG team.... They are not...... Villa (11/4, sportingbet) are pretty huge here. Spurs have a Bent, Pavlichenko and Fraser Campbell up front. This strike force isn't going to strike fear into the hearts of Villa's defenders, not yet anyway.
In the championship, Watford are still trying to shake off their hangover. They didn't look too hot on TV the other week even thuogh they won. They are away at Sheff Wed (6/4) today and this will be a tough game for them. Sheff Wed look too big for and should be backed with bet365 or skybet.
Who's gonna win the big one....... Sorry can't answer that. Think it will be between 3 horses and there's nothing original in any of them. Frozen Fire (5/2f) looks the pick of them and is a fair price. Look Here (4/1) should prove a worthy challenger and Doctor Fremantle (7/1) has come in for some support this week. Sorry for the nothingness of the post but I can't pick 20/1 winners when they won't win.
And that's it..... No bets today, as its been for the week. No edge, nothing. The bookies finally catch up with me and there has been little value floating around. Bring on the proper racing.
Had a quick scan on the footie and in the Prem, Aston Villa away at Spurs look a big price. The bookies still think Spurs are a BIG team.... They are not...... Villa (11/4, sportingbet) are pretty huge here. Spurs have a Bent, Pavlichenko and Fraser Campbell up front. This strike force isn't going to strike fear into the hearts of Villa's defenders, not yet anyway.
In the championship, Watford are still trying to shake off their hangover. They didn't look too hot on TV the other week even thuogh they won. They are away at Sheff Wed (6/4) today and this will be a tough game for them. Sheff Wed look too big for and should be backed with bet365 or skybet.
Sunday 31 August 2008
Wet Wet Wet
Benandoner ran ok yesterday but no money in the bank. Today looks decidedly shit and wet.
The only piece of value against a short favourite I can offer is Mister Wiseman. He runs in the 4.30 at Newton Abbot. For One Night Only will probably win but the rest are pretty average. Mister Wiseman's problem is his trainer doesn't know what to run him over.... or indeed just to run him over. 16/1 or better offers value but there will be better bets this year.
The only piece of value against a short favourite I can offer is Mister Wiseman. He runs in the 4.30 at Newton Abbot. For One Night Only will probably win but the rest are pretty average. Mister Wiseman's problem is his trainer doesn't know what to run him over.... or indeed just to run him over. 16/1 or better offers value but there will be better bets this year.
Saturday 30 August 2008
Short and Sweet
Cross The Line was punted into 15/2 on monday.... Ran like a pig of course. Oh well.
A short post today just to highlight any thing over-priced.
Sandown
3.10 Benandoner (40/1 Stan James, Betdirect, Boylesports) looks overpriced to me. the spotlight waffles about him not getting 1m2f, but I think he ran into trouble then. He likes good ground, which he gets today and could shock at a massive price.
4.05 Piscean (10/1) drops down in grade today and has a great chance to add to his win earlier in the month. I just hope he isn't in need of a break.
Chester
5.05 Thewhirlingdervish (10/1). Just as I was wrining this, bluesq's standout price of 12/1 was clipped, so he's now not a viable bet at 10/1.
Not too much to get excited about all in all. I fancy Sunderland @ 11/8 look a standout price with Paddy Power against poor tired old Manchester City......
ttfn
A short post today just to highlight any thing over-priced.
Sandown
3.10 Benandoner (40/1 Stan James, Betdirect, Boylesports) looks overpriced to me. the spotlight waffles about him not getting 1m2f, but I think he ran into trouble then. He likes good ground, which he gets today and could shock at a massive price.
4.05 Piscean (10/1) drops down in grade today and has a great chance to add to his win earlier in the month. I just hope he isn't in need of a break.
Chester
5.05 Thewhirlingdervish (10/1). Just as I was wrining this, bluesq's standout price of 12/1 was clipped, so he's now not a viable bet at 10/1.
Not too much to get excited about all in all. I fancy Sunderland @ 11/8 look a standout price with Paddy Power against poor tired old Manchester City......
ttfn
Monday 25 August 2008
Bank Holiday blues?
Best bet of the day.
Kempton 5.40
Cross The Line is a former C&D winner who looks like he could land a touch for his owners today. I think the 25/1 with Stan James/Betdirect should be snaffled asap. Priti Fabulous is out now and I'll be disappointed if he's not in the frame.
on the weekend, Borderlescott won (even though I said he wouldn't lol) and I can't believe I missed Shaweel @ 16/1, which I reccommended in July... Massive oversight, just didn't see him in the line-up.... gutted. Askar Tau beat Ollie George, Jazacosta placed. Copperwood was backed into 3rd fav but didn't offer much.
Onto the footie Rochdale were crap, however Sheff Utd and Bury made up for that. Carlisle couldn't quite make the treble....
Off to poker later, so this is a quick one. Get on.
edited 20 mins later..... 25/1 gone... 22/1 sportingbet or 20/1 Ladbrokes . 16/1 elsewhere.
Kempton 5.40
Cross The Line is a former C&D winner who looks like he could land a touch for his owners today. I think the 25/1 with Stan James/Betdirect should be snaffled asap. Priti Fabulous is out now and I'll be disappointed if he's not in the frame.
on the weekend, Borderlescott won (even though I said he wouldn't lol) and I can't believe I missed Shaweel @ 16/1, which I reccommended in July... Massive oversight, just didn't see him in the line-up.... gutted. Askar Tau beat Ollie George, Jazacosta placed. Copperwood was backed into 3rd fav but didn't offer much.
Onto the footie Rochdale were crap, however Sheff Utd and Bury made up for that. Carlisle couldn't quite make the treble....
Off to poker later, so this is a quick one. Get on.
edited 20 mins later..... 25/1 gone... 22/1 sportingbet or 20/1 Ladbrokes . 16/1 elsewhere.
Friday 22 August 2008
It's York, Jim! But not as we know it
Typical England.... same old rubbish and they still cock up your bets. Only you in-running punters managed to lock in a profit on wednesday, with the rest of us trying to recork the champers at 9.52pm. Ho-hum.... And Imperial Skylight turns in one of the unluckier performances of the week. Twice squeezed when going for a gap and nudged off-ballance when going round the outside, the horse ran on past beaten horses to take 3rd only to be nabbed on the line in a photo. Impressive debutant here though (in fact 1st and 2nd were making their bow).
And onto friday. I won't be around the weekend, so will have to find some beer money today. York is at Newmarket I think, maybe Newbury and possibly in Hong Kong at the Olympics (well you never know).
I'm ignoring the first 2 races and will start with the 1.30.
Newmarket
1.30 Looks on paper to be fairly open and I';m actually agreeing with the RP on this. Roly Boy looks to have the best chance and is a decent price @ 6/1. Obviously the bookies disagree as I think he should start shorter than this. 2 yo's are not really my field so I will look for a bigger price too.
Jazacosta (11/1, Ladbrokes) beat Roly Boy LTO and whilst Roly Boy was thought to be unlucky that day, Jazacosta is a nice price. River Captain is a non-runner and I think these 2 are the only ones to follow in this race.
2.05 I guess Kevin Manning won't make the same errors on Lush Lashes (13/10, sportingbet) this time :-). Should win, no value though. Michita (7/2) is a nice horse and is likely to cause problems. Passage Of Time's (9/2) is a big threat too. I'm far too tentative here. Cape Amber (33/1) is going backwards. Dar Re Mi (9/1) is as honest as they come and can't be ruled out. Allegretto (20/1) actually offers the best value of the lot, shame its only 6 runners. All in all its a race to watch. If I was there, I'd back Lush Lashes to beat Passage Of Time and Allegretto in forecasts.
2.35 Great, a 2yo race in a massive field. Not for me, I'm afraid. Fitz Flyer (14/1, Sportingbet) offers the best value in the race if you are a nutter.
3.05 The market isn't giving much away here. It will be a cracking race. Equiano (9/2) looks good. Kingsgate Native (5/1) could follow up his Golden Jubilee win, I just don't like missing big prices and backing them after the fact. So I won't touch him on principle, pah. Borderlescott (12/1) will place but not win and Dandy Man (11/1) will frustrate like nomal. Captain Gerrard (9/1) can't be ruled out either. All in all, Borderlescott's consistancy allows me to back him e/w.
Half-Time...
3.40 Um, good luck.
4.10 Another good race, another hard race. I want to be against Earlsmedic (5/2 fav), far too short for a value hunter. So lay him. Obe Brave (16/1, boylesports, bluesq) and John Keats (10/1, Hills) if i had to stick my neck out. Hopefully I will find a big price winner to justify the waffle written here today.
4.40 Good, a short priced favourite to get beat. Trouble is I don't think Bellomi (10/11) can be beat. Averoo (12/1) and Royal Applord (16/1, sportingbet) are the only realistic e/w options in this race and with Spin Again (4/1, vcbet, sportingbet) also in the mix there isn't a standout betting opportunity here either. No bet, unless you're backing the favourite. :-o
5.15 Askar Tau (3/1, sportingbet) might give a little value to the rest of the field here. Whilst he's a good horse this is much more competative, and squeak of a betting opportunity here. Ollie George (14/1, bluesq, betdirect, sportingbet) is the one I'm going to take a chance with. No tips in tips box, but has my stamp of approval.
5.45 This race isn't going to get you out of trouble if you've done your dough. I'm sure there's a big price winner out there, but I can't see it and I won't lead you away from your 'guess'. Avoid outsider Multahab (50/1) *dothscap*... Oh ok... Royal Envoy (25/1, surprise surprise its sportingbet, my favorite bookies) New stable and if fit after 3 months off can go close.
Newbury
1.45 Saxford (16/1) is in a race with 2 short-priced favourites and it allows his price to be artificailly large. Spin Cycle (16/1, bluesq) can also take advantage of the odds. I'll be disappointed if one of these doesn't get into the frame.
Bath
8.00 Copperwood will win one day, I'm convinced. And I won't be on. And he'll land a right touch. He is priced up at 33/1 (Hills and Betfred) and they don't often get their horses wrong. But there's something nagging at me to put something on him. I don't know....... My head says no, my heart says yes. Lets toss a coin.... Heads it is, back him....... only at 33/1 mind.. If you can't get on, don't get on.
All in all there's a lot of chat and little substance. Hopefully I can put you towards some winners or placepot selections. It's a tough old day. Copperwood is the best value of the day, couldn't get the full bet on with Betfred unfotunately, I prefer the smaller meetings where I can spot the horses primed for a touch.
Tuesday 19 August 2008
40/1 shot in the 2.00 Brighton
Brighton 2.00
There is a value horse today, although it is definitely not the strongest of bets, Imperial Skylight (40/1, Coral, Hills) is pretty big. Not the worst horse in the world in a fairly weak contest it could be worth a couple of quid each way. I had a couple of nice results at the weekend with this type of punting (unfortunately a heavy night's poker and Brentford playing prevented me from blogging Nabeeba and Beaver Patrol) so I have to put it up at a big price.
There is a value horse today, although it is definitely not the strongest of bets, Imperial Skylight (40/1, Coral, Hills) is pretty big. Not the worst horse in the world in a fairly weak contest it could be worth a couple of quid each way. I had a couple of nice results at the weekend with this type of punting (unfortunately a heavy night's poker and Brentford playing prevented me from blogging Nabeeba and Beaver Patrol) so I have to put it up at a big price.
York OFF
Sorry for the infrequency, but the horses have been shite on the days I've had off. Now I have the time and York's first day is rained off.... bad scenes..
Very little at Brighton today, but I think a bad day for favourite backers and a good day for placepot backers. The two meetings tonight are bloody awful.
I'm prettty patriotic and am loving the Olympics, however England's footballers never offer any value. Probably best to stay away from friendlies too, but I'm a value-hunter which means I can only offer unpatriotic bets. Bet365 are offering 9/2 on the Czech Republic, wednesday night. Something for the other Brits to get their teeth into I'm sure. And then all the scorers and correct score markets offer great value too. The Czech's to win 2-1 is 22/1 with bluesq *shrug*.
Just had a little look at the weekend's football too... Plenty of value, West Ham @ Man City (9/4) for example, but nothing too concrete in the Premiership after only 1 week.
The value, as always, is where the bookies are weak, ie the Football League and Non-League (where I'm also weak) lol. However Mr Edge knows his non-League stuff and hopefully he'll send a few Blue Square punts my way. But I know the lower leagues and reckon there are some tasty aways this week.
You can get 11/8 (betfred, 365) on Sheffield United to win at Blackpool. Excellent value surely. United's firepower make this a good thing IMO. Doncaster come down to London this weekend in a make or break match for both teams. We'll find out whether 'the richest club in the world', QPR are the real deal (pfft) or whether Donny (15/4) are good enough to bring home the bacon on my tip in 'Division 2'. Not a bet. Hmmm, nope no bet.
In Division 3, Carlisle (6/4) also should get something from a trip to Leyton Orient this saturday. They crushed them in the corresponding fixture last season and are a much better side than the O's.
Bury (10/11, skybet) to beat Morecambe, at Gigg Lane, looks nailed on too. Anyone that can beat Brentford must be good ;-). Money talks in football especially with bookmakers and mug punters. Quite why Rochdale are 3/1 (bet365) to win at an overrated Bradford baffles me. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd take Rochdale at this price every day of the week. They are no mugs and are my *Harry Hill* 'value punt of the week'. */Harry Hill*
I'll be back tomorrow weather-permitting, but am currently enjoying the Madison madness of Wiggins and Cavendish.
Thursday 7 August 2008
It's back.... Olympic Diving at its best.
Ooooh, I am bloody knackered.... 5 days work (that's about 60 hrs before you ask) ....... but a day at the cricket beckons tomorrow and England in the box seat. There may or may not be a post on saturday depending on 'technical' issues on saturday morning.
The football and Olympics starting gives us some other opportunities to bet on too...
I like paying particular interest to the divisional handicap markets. Last year Portsmouth, Stoke, Plymouth, Leyton Orient and Rochdale proving extremely profitable.
Premier League
Looks like the bookies aren't allowing much to get away this season.
Outright:
Manchester United look to have a little problem on their plates this year
Ronaldo out for the first 6 weeks
No squad improvement
Tough start to the season
Away from home the weekend after Champion's League games.
Meanwhile Chelsea look decent preseason and Deco's quality will unlock defences that they couldn't do previously. Of the 2 Chelsea @ 15/8 are the team to back at the start. Man Utd should drift at the start and must be bigger than 6/4 'in-running'.
Arsenal and Liverpool will have to wait some more.
Handicap Betting:
Little to get excited about this year. Fulham look ok at +46 (skybet) and if they get 44 points will definitely get placed. They look a better outfit than last year and are my tip.
Match Bets
I do like my match bets and missed out on a 5 timer on the last weekend of the season (Blackburn vs Villa) This season I want to be against Newcastle and West Ham, and Portsmouth and Boro look to have improved their squads in the summer. Not much else to get excited about in this division.
Portsmouth to bt Newcastle @ 8/11 (totesport)
Middlesbrough to bt West Ham @ 10/11 (totesport)
Championship:
Open as usual. Want to get right down to it. Birmingham, of the favourites, look the best equipped, however their manager hasn't done it and I can't be solid at such a short price. Clinton Morrison's gone from Palace today. Colin knows what he's doing and I think Palace @ 14/1 (skybet, William Hill) can continue the momentum of last season. Sheffield United fans must be tearing their hair out at their board after the obvious failure of Bryan Robson. Kevin Blackwell undid a lot of the bad work and made them the form side of the 2nd half of the season. I think they are very backable @ 12/1 (Boyle, PP, Skybet, Coral).
Handicap Bets:
Stoke last year punished out of line bookies and having seen Dave Penney's Doncaster over the last couple of seasons, I adore their football. The play-off NAP versus Leeds, this team could surprise so many. James Coppinger is a star in the making and the +29 Betfred are offering should be nabbed in double quick time. Plymouth are big again (+30, Hills), but aren't as strong this year. Don't be surprised if Swansea (+24, bet365) are better than their handicap too.
Match Bets:
Sheff Utd to bt Sheff Wed @ 1/2 (bet365)
Plymouth to bt Southampton @ 10/11 (bet365)
Doncaster to bt Barnsley @ 8/11 (bet365)
Palace to bt Charlton @ 8/11 (Bet365, William Hill)
Swansea to bt Cardiff @ 5/4 (bet365)
Preston to bt Burnley @ 5/6 (William Hill)
Birmingham to bt QPR @ 10/11 (Betfred)
Doncaster to bt Plymouth @ evs (betfred)
Sheff Utd to bt Wolves @ evs (Blue Sq)
Doncaster to beat Sheff Wed @ 6/5 (Blue Sq)
League 1:
Is Gary McAllister the man to lead Leeds to the title. Dunno. If he is then 3/1 is a steal. Not sure who else is going to take if from them if they aren't. Certainly not Leicester (5/1). No Experience... A Completely differnt league to the Championship and this is proved year in year out as the Forests, Man City's, QPR, Sheff Wed fail to acclimatise to the less cultured football on offer. Huddersfield have made some decent signings and finished the season strongly. 16/1 (Betfred, Coral, Skybet) seems fair. Leeds should win the title.
Handicaps:
Oldham (+18, Betfred) look pretty good value here, nothing much else on offer.
Match Bets:
Leicester have no experience of 'Division 3' and are very opposable at the 5/1 for the title. Leeds should beat them comfortably. Northampton finished the season strongly and are worth backing against a Millwall side that look weaker this season. John Sheridan have made some decent signings and look nailed on @ 8/11 to dominate Millwall.
Leeds to bt Leicester @ 4/6 (bet365, Blue Sq, Stan James)
Northampton to bt Milwall @ 10/11 (bet365)
Oldham to bt Millwall @ 8/11 (Totesport)
League 2:
Shrewsbury have been hammered into 8/1 fav (from 25/1) and offer no value but have made use of Joe Hart's windfall money. I fancy Rochdale (12/1, Betfred, Ladbrokes) to get 'promoted', yes promoted.... Rochdale and promoted in the same sentence... Bradford... nah, Darlington out of form. Gillingham (11/1) are interesting, it shouldn't take them long to get into the swing of things. Notts County and Bury (33/1) need to be more consistant but have the personnel to be in the mix.
Handicap:
Notts County +20 (bet365). Grimsby were hot and cold last season but have signed the best centre-half in the division, so at (+18) this is pretty decent value. Will need to be more consistent at home though. Bury (+18) finished the season strongly and Andy Bishop (20/1) is value for top scorer.
Match Bets: I want to get on the side of Bury and Notts County in some lop-sided bets here. Accrington look safe this season thanks to the 3 teams on negative points but won't offer much. Barnet look weaker and must be opposed too.
Dag & Red to bt Accrington @ 5/6 (bet365, Blue Sq, Stan James)
Bury to bt Barnet @ 11/10 (bet365)
Notts County to bt Chester @ 4/6 (bet365)
Aldershot to bt Port Vale @ 5/4 (Ladbrokes)
Grimsby to bt Lincoln @ 6/5 (Ladbrokes)
Chesterfield to bt Darlington @ evs (Stan James)
Notts County to bt Barnet @ 5/6 (Stan James)
Bury to bt Morecambe @ 5/6 (Stan James)
Lincoln to bt Barnet @ 5/6 (totesport)
Notts County to bt Morecambe @ 4/5 (totesport)
A quick word on the mighty Bees..... 20/1 is a little big and I've taken some, I think we need another year, but it isn't a strong division this season and I'd rather be on our side than against us :-)
right must get some shut-eye for the cricket, ......night all
The football and Olympics starting gives us some other opportunities to bet on too...
I like paying particular interest to the divisional handicap markets. Last year Portsmouth, Stoke, Plymouth, Leyton Orient and Rochdale proving extremely profitable.
Premier League
Looks like the bookies aren't allowing much to get away this season.
Outright:
Manchester United look to have a little problem on their plates this year
Ronaldo out for the first 6 weeks
No squad improvement
Tough start to the season
Away from home the weekend after Champion's League games.
Meanwhile Chelsea look decent preseason and Deco's quality will unlock defences that they couldn't do previously. Of the 2 Chelsea @ 15/8 are the team to back at the start. Man Utd should drift at the start and must be bigger than 6/4 'in-running'.
Arsenal and Liverpool will have to wait some more.
Handicap Betting:
Little to get excited about this year. Fulham look ok at +46 (skybet) and if they get 44 points will definitely get placed. They look a better outfit than last year and are my tip.
Match Bets
I do like my match bets and missed out on a 5 timer on the last weekend of the season (Blackburn vs Villa) This season I want to be against Newcastle and West Ham, and Portsmouth and Boro look to have improved their squads in the summer. Not much else to get excited about in this division.
Portsmouth to bt Newcastle @ 8/11 (totesport)
Middlesbrough to bt West Ham @ 10/11 (totesport)
Championship:
Open as usual. Want to get right down to it. Birmingham, of the favourites, look the best equipped, however their manager hasn't done it and I can't be solid at such a short price. Clinton Morrison's gone from Palace today. Colin knows what he's doing and I think Palace @ 14/1 (skybet, William Hill) can continue the momentum of last season. Sheffield United fans must be tearing their hair out at their board after the obvious failure of Bryan Robson. Kevin Blackwell undid a lot of the bad work and made them the form side of the 2nd half of the season. I think they are very backable @ 12/1 (Boyle, PP, Skybet, Coral).
Handicap Bets:
Stoke last year punished out of line bookies and having seen Dave Penney's Doncaster over the last couple of seasons, I adore their football. The play-off NAP versus Leeds, this team could surprise so many. James Coppinger is a star in the making and the +29 Betfred are offering should be nabbed in double quick time. Plymouth are big again (+30, Hills), but aren't as strong this year. Don't be surprised if Swansea (+24, bet365) are better than their handicap too.
Match Bets:
Sheff Utd to bt Sheff Wed @ 1/2 (bet365)
Plymouth to bt Southampton @ 10/11 (bet365)
Doncaster to bt Barnsley @ 8/11 (bet365)
Palace to bt Charlton @ 8/11 (Bet365, William Hill)
Swansea to bt Cardiff @ 5/4 (bet365)
Preston to bt Burnley @ 5/6 (William Hill)
Birmingham to bt QPR @ 10/11 (Betfred)
Doncaster to bt Plymouth @ evs (betfred)
Sheff Utd to bt Wolves @ evs (Blue Sq)
Doncaster to beat Sheff Wed @ 6/5 (Blue Sq)
League 1:
Is Gary McAllister the man to lead Leeds to the title. Dunno. If he is then 3/1 is a steal. Not sure who else is going to take if from them if they aren't. Certainly not Leicester (5/1). No Experience... A Completely differnt league to the Championship and this is proved year in year out as the Forests, Man City's, QPR, Sheff Wed fail to acclimatise to the less cultured football on offer. Huddersfield have made some decent signings and finished the season strongly. 16/1 (Betfred, Coral, Skybet) seems fair. Leeds should win the title.
Handicaps:
Oldham (+18, Betfred) look pretty good value here, nothing much else on offer.
Match Bets:
Leicester have no experience of 'Division 3' and are very opposable at the 5/1 for the title. Leeds should beat them comfortably. Northampton finished the season strongly and are worth backing against a Millwall side that look weaker this season. John Sheridan have made some decent signings and look nailed on @ 8/11 to dominate Millwall.
Leeds to bt Leicester @ 4/6 (bet365, Blue Sq, Stan James)
Northampton to bt Milwall @ 10/11 (bet365)
Oldham to bt Millwall @ 8/11 (Totesport)
League 2:
Shrewsbury have been hammered into 8/1 fav (from 25/1) and offer no value but have made use of Joe Hart's windfall money. I fancy Rochdale (12/1, Betfred, Ladbrokes) to get 'promoted', yes promoted.... Rochdale and promoted in the same sentence... Bradford... nah, Darlington out of form. Gillingham (11/1) are interesting, it shouldn't take them long to get into the swing of things. Notts County and Bury (33/1) need to be more consistant but have the personnel to be in the mix.
Handicap:
Notts County +20 (bet365). Grimsby were hot and cold last season but have signed the best centre-half in the division, so at (+18) this is pretty decent value. Will need to be more consistent at home though. Bury (+18) finished the season strongly and Andy Bishop (20/1) is value for top scorer.
Match Bets: I want to get on the side of Bury and Notts County in some lop-sided bets here. Accrington look safe this season thanks to the 3 teams on negative points but won't offer much. Barnet look weaker and must be opposed too.
Dag & Red to bt Accrington @ 5/6 (bet365, Blue Sq, Stan James)
Bury to bt Barnet @ 11/10 (bet365)
Notts County to bt Chester @ 4/6 (bet365)
Aldershot to bt Port Vale @ 5/4 (Ladbrokes)
Grimsby to bt Lincoln @ 6/5 (Ladbrokes)
Chesterfield to bt Darlington @ evs (Stan James)
Notts County to bt Barnet @ 5/6 (Stan James)
Bury to bt Morecambe @ 5/6 (Stan James)
Lincoln to bt Barnet @ 5/6 (totesport)
Notts County to bt Morecambe @ 4/5 (totesport)
A quick word on the mighty Bees..... 20/1 is a little big and I've taken some, I think we need another year, but it isn't a strong division this season and I'd rather be on our side than against us :-)
right must get some shut-eye for the cricket, ......night all
Saturday 2 August 2008
the rest of some depressing cards
With little on offer at Goodwood we need to find something elsewhere. First lets get the 2 Newmarket Scoop6 races out of the way.
2.55
Harold Bluetooth is Barry's Bismarck and I'm not so sure. 9/4 (bet365, sportingbet) looks a little big. If Gross Prophet (10/1) wins I may have to give it all up. I've backed this donkey more than I should have and he's disappointed on every occasion. A 2nd 2 runs ago broke his sequence of duck eggs but this dodgy geezer must be laid. I guess Non Sucre (28/1) just hasn't trained on from being a decent 2yo. Blinkers re-applied today and they may spark him again as they did last season. If you take Emperors Jade and Writingonthewall out of the equation you still have some decent chances. Nezami (16/1, bluesq, betfred) hasn't done much this season, but I won't rule him out for place chances. I'm wafling again so Harald to beat Kalahari Gold (9/2) with Non Sucre/Nezami and in a speculative tricast!!!
3.30
7 runners unfortunately, so Yarqus (12/1) misses out on a e/w bet. Redesignation (2/1f) is napped by Spotlight, which is good coz Trans Siberian (5/1, Coral) could just get left in front enough to win this.
Doncaster
3.25 Looks the type of race with some e/w value. Trouble is knowing what to suggest. Avoiding the outsider. We have 5 horses at e/w prices. Capricorn Run (25/1) has been written off by Spotlight. Likes All-Weather, needs further, bad draw, up 8lbs.... zzzzzzzz ...ok, he might not win, but he's dropping down the weights and could be worth watching in the coming weeks. (lets hope its not today). Ann Stokels' Pawan (16/1, sportingbet) is big considering he's been running well. Ann's riding gets tons of criticism, but can't be ruled out at spbet's ridiculous price. Somnus (16/1, vcbet) is also at a big price, but opens seasonal account here today and may need the run. Worth watching for a market move, but vcbet have made him value. Hammadi (20/1) found only Loch Jipp (100/1) behind him in June, but is better than that, and with Tajdeef (11/4f) also running poorly there this race is wide open. Don't worry as I've mentioned most of the field here, I won't claim bragging rights when Capricorn Run beats Pawan by a nose.
4.00
Checklow (8/11f) can be beaten :-). No run for 3 months and with the St Leger coming up need to get fit.
Hamilton
7.35 Border Tale (20/1, Skybet) is a dual purpose horse, who's been getting better over hurdles. Back in flat handicaps for the forst time in 15 months and could have snuck past the odds compilers. Runs off 50 today, 8lb less than last time and though he's not my best ever 20/1 shot, he's worth mentioning as overpriced. Astrodome (3/1) looks very beatable indeed.
8.35 Has always started a big price, but Forzarzi (16/1, Stan James/betdirect) won't have better chances to break his duck. This looks a pretty weak race and he offers a little e/w value with some backwards -looking horses here.
All in all, very little around today and it may be worth taking a day off to watch a very close Test match...
My All-sports statistician, Mr Edge, recommends Warrington to beat Leeds tonight. Leeds had a tough ask last week in their loss to St Helens and Warrington are in pretty decent form. The bookies make Leeds slight favs and they go 11/10 (StanJames, Ladbrokes) on the Wolves.
2.55
Harold Bluetooth is Barry's Bismarck and I'm not so sure. 9/4 (bet365, sportingbet) looks a little big. If Gross Prophet (10/1) wins I may have to give it all up. I've backed this donkey more than I should have and he's disappointed on every occasion. A 2nd 2 runs ago broke his sequence of duck eggs but this dodgy geezer must be laid. I guess Non Sucre (28/1) just hasn't trained on from being a decent 2yo. Blinkers re-applied today and they may spark him again as they did last season. If you take Emperors Jade and Writingonthewall out of the equation you still have some decent chances. Nezami (16/1, bluesq, betfred) hasn't done much this season, but I won't rule him out for place chances. I'm wafling again so Harald to beat Kalahari Gold (9/2) with Non Sucre/Nezami and in a speculative tricast!!!
3.30
7 runners unfortunately, so Yarqus (12/1) misses out on a e/w bet. Redesignation (2/1f) is napped by Spotlight, which is good coz Trans Siberian (5/1, Coral) could just get left in front enough to win this.
Doncaster
3.25 Looks the type of race with some e/w value. Trouble is knowing what to suggest. Avoiding the outsider. We have 5 horses at e/w prices. Capricorn Run (25/1) has been written off by Spotlight. Likes All-Weather, needs further, bad draw, up 8lbs.... zzzzzzzz ...ok, he might not win, but he's dropping down the weights and could be worth watching in the coming weeks. (lets hope its not today). Ann Stokels' Pawan (16/1, sportingbet) is big considering he's been running well. Ann's riding gets tons of criticism, but can't be ruled out at spbet's ridiculous price. Somnus (16/1, vcbet) is also at a big price, but opens seasonal account here today and may need the run. Worth watching for a market move, but vcbet have made him value. Hammadi (20/1) found only Loch Jipp (100/1) behind him in June, but is better than that, and with Tajdeef (11/4f) also running poorly there this race is wide open. Don't worry as I've mentioned most of the field here, I won't claim bragging rights when Capricorn Run beats Pawan by a nose.
4.00
Checklow (8/11f) can be beaten :-). No run for 3 months and with the St Leger coming up need to get fit.
Hamilton
7.35 Border Tale (20/1, Skybet) is a dual purpose horse, who's been getting better over hurdles. Back in flat handicaps for the forst time in 15 months and could have snuck past the odds compilers. Runs off 50 today, 8lb less than last time and though he's not my best ever 20/1 shot, he's worth mentioning as overpriced. Astrodome (3/1) looks very beatable indeed.
8.35 Has always started a big price, but Forzarzi (16/1, Stan James/betdirect) won't have better chances to break his duck. This looks a pretty weak race and he offers a little e/w value with some backwards -looking horses here.
All in all, very little around today and it may be worth taking a day off to watch a very close Test match...
My All-sports statistician, Mr Edge, recommends Warrington to beat Leeds tonight. Leeds had a tough ask last week in their loss to St Helens and Warrington are in pretty decent form. The bookies make Leeds slight favs and they go 11/10 (StanJames, Ladbrokes) on the Wolves.
One more day...
Not a great day yesterday. The Graig WAS last lol but started at 8/1. But gutted about Little Pete (into 17/2) who led 100 yards out before losing by a nose to Piscean who i've backed previously without success (naturally) ... Our Faye was a non-runner.
Goodwood
205
I expect this to go to one of the favourites. Deep Winter (9/2) looks a nice horse but is beatable. Important for the Scoop6/Placepot to get it out of the frame. Not sure it will be that poor. Of the rest, Wikaala (10/1) looks a little too big in the betting but is tempremental. Palmerin (25/1, Hills) offers an e/w alternative but all in all there isn't a bet here.
2.40
Can't see why Perfect Stride (2/1f) is so short. Looks a talking horse to me. River Proud (7/2) has better credentials. Tanya reckons Stubbs Art (5/1) will hose up if it runs. i'm not so sure and neither is anyone else. The rest of them have chances and I won't put you off backing any of the next 3, Alexandros (10/1), Atlantic Sport (11/1) and Duntulm (10/1) who are artificially big due to the favourite.
3.15
Lush Lashes (2/1, skybet) offers much better value than the 2.40 favourite. At least she's done the business. Halfway To Heaven (9/2, Coral, partybets) will give her most to do. Passage Of Time (13/2) surely hasn't got her softer ground and can't be backed. I fancy Majestic Roi (22/1, skybet) to run a big race and is definitely some e/w value.
3.50
The big one, The Steward's Cup. Good luck :0). Ok Anything can win. Borderlescott (12/1, partybets) won this 2 years ago, but can't get his head in front but 12/1 is fair. John Francome doesn't think Prime Defender (8/1) can win as he don't think he'll like Goodwood, that's good enough for me and he's too short anyway. The Morning Line was actually pretty decent today, Not sure it was Big Mac or birds shitting on Thommo. Yes it was the birds. Knot In Wood's been in fantastic form and 10/1 is a fair price. Barney McGrew (16/1, sportingbet) has already been clipped this morning and offers little value on form. King's Apostle (14/1) hasn't been mentioned anywhere and can't be ruled out. E/W I recommend Bentong @ 25/1 as a little value and Orpsie Boy (33/1) is consistent.
4.25
2yo race with a few newcomers, get Holyrood out of the money the only aim.
5.00
Another 2yo race, but a little more to go on. Ideally getting the favourite out of the frame is the aim and there is opportunity. Tishtar (7/2, partybets) is possibly the only one to command some respect and with the tipsbox giving 8 tips to Finnegan McCool (11/2) and Golden Rosie (11/2) the sheep will surely follow. Fault (6/1) steps up to 6f for the first time but is a danger if he gets it. Ideally we'd get 3 big prices in the places and the placepot is sorted. Not a great betting proposition but could make or break the dividend. Stop waffling.
5.35
Looks a good race, shame the market has it spot on. I like Count Ceprano (11/1), but I'd want bigger to back him. No bets.
Goodwood
205
I expect this to go to one of the favourites. Deep Winter (9/2) looks a nice horse but is beatable. Important for the Scoop6/Placepot to get it out of the frame. Not sure it will be that poor. Of the rest, Wikaala (10/1) looks a little too big in the betting but is tempremental. Palmerin (25/1, Hills) offers an e/w alternative but all in all there isn't a bet here.
2.40
Can't see why Perfect Stride (2/1f) is so short. Looks a talking horse to me. River Proud (7/2) has better credentials. Tanya reckons Stubbs Art (5/1) will hose up if it runs. i'm not so sure and neither is anyone else. The rest of them have chances and I won't put you off backing any of the next 3, Alexandros (10/1), Atlantic Sport (11/1) and Duntulm (10/1) who are artificially big due to the favourite.
3.15
Lush Lashes (2/1, skybet) offers much better value than the 2.40 favourite. At least she's done the business. Halfway To Heaven (9/2, Coral, partybets) will give her most to do. Passage Of Time (13/2) surely hasn't got her softer ground and can't be backed. I fancy Majestic Roi (22/1, skybet) to run a big race and is definitely some e/w value.
3.50
The big one, The Steward's Cup. Good luck :0). Ok Anything can win. Borderlescott (12/1, partybets) won this 2 years ago, but can't get his head in front but 12/1 is fair. John Francome doesn't think Prime Defender (8/1) can win as he don't think he'll like Goodwood, that's good enough for me and he's too short anyway. The Morning Line was actually pretty decent today, Not sure it was Big Mac or birds shitting on Thommo. Yes it was the birds. Knot In Wood's been in fantastic form and 10/1 is a fair price. Barney McGrew (16/1, sportingbet) has already been clipped this morning and offers little value on form. King's Apostle (14/1) hasn't been mentioned anywhere and can't be ruled out. E/W I recommend Bentong @ 25/1 as a little value and Orpsie Boy (33/1) is consistent.
4.25
2yo race with a few newcomers, get Holyrood out of the money the only aim.
5.00
Another 2yo race, but a little more to go on. Ideally getting the favourite out of the frame is the aim and there is opportunity. Tishtar (7/2, partybets) is possibly the only one to command some respect and with the tipsbox giving 8 tips to Finnegan McCool (11/2) and Golden Rosie (11/2) the sheep will surely follow. Fault (6/1) steps up to 6f for the first time but is a danger if he gets it. Ideally we'd get 3 big prices in the places and the placepot is sorted. Not a great betting proposition but could make or break the dividend. Stop waffling.
5.35
Looks a good race, shame the market has it spot on. I like Count Ceprano (11/1), but I'd want bigger to back him. No bets.
Friday 1 August 2008
the other meetings
Thirsk
3.50
Amicable Terms (9/4f) is napped by the RP. Brilliant!!! Will be artificially short so I can find some value. Offshore Anna is a horse I've followed after her debut. Promise on her 3rd next time @ 18/1 and pushed on again last week (2nd). 5/1 today and can break her duck, however there is a little bit of value in Martingrange Lass (40/1) who looked like she has a race in her in the future. i'm on here because she could start a lot shorter. Not a tip of nap proportions but back to lay possiblities here. Get the 40/1 at bluesquare if you can. I have so it probably won't be there in a bit.
Bangor
2.30 Duke Of Touraine's short price offers some each-way thievery and if Tyrur Ted (10/1) ever gets to race the he offers some value. At even bigger prices but not guaranteed are Caltire (18/1) and Persistant (28/1). Nail those bookies...
Haydock
8.55 The Graig (20/1, Ladbrokes) is ridiculously big. Ladbrokes have made a rick and should be punished. He may come last, I don't care. He shouldn't be 20/1... EVER.
That's All Folks
3.50
Amicable Terms (9/4f) is napped by the RP. Brilliant!!! Will be artificially short so I can find some value. Offshore Anna is a horse I've followed after her debut. Promise on her 3rd next time @ 18/1 and pushed on again last week (2nd). 5/1 today and can break her duck, however there is a little bit of value in Martingrange Lass (40/1) who looked like she has a race in her in the future. i'm on here because she could start a lot shorter. Not a tip of nap proportions but back to lay possiblities here. Get the 40/1 at bluesquare if you can. I have so it probably won't be there in a bit.
Bangor
2.30 Duke Of Touraine's short price offers some each-way thievery and if Tyrur Ted (10/1) ever gets to race the he offers some value. At even bigger prices but not guaranteed are Caltire (18/1) and Persistant (28/1). Nail those bookies...
Haydock
8.55 The Graig (20/1, Ladbrokes) is ridiculously big. Ladbrokes have made a rick and should be punished. He may come last, I don't care. He shouldn't be 20/1... EVER.
That's All Folks
Goodwood day 63
Very happy with wednesdays tipping, giving Baddam and Love Galore, both at 16/1. Shaweel was nudged out of the frame on the line. Howdigo also placed. Went out of the placepot in Leg 4 (had the 4th) which would have paid out more than the £950 it did. If you got Mujood, you got a 2nd, if you chose Monkey Glas you got a good run but no cash...
The 4.50 @ Perth produced a very similar result to the day before with Eightfifysix (2nd) beating Fourpointone (3rd). both going down to a very good winner in Valerius. Northern Spy was backed into 8/1 before playing up before the race (according to RP) and running crappy. Worth watching out for again.
Goodwood
215
A nice little opener but i can't find an edge. I've never backed Sixties Icon (11/4), can't quite put my finger on it probably coz he's never offered the value or maybe the Morning Line/Racing Post have fawned over him like a newborn. Of the two I'd prefer Tranquil Tiger (5/1, sportingbet, partybets) who's a gutsy horse but I won't be having a bet in this. Stotsford (6/1) can't get in the frame this season and Galactic Star (5/1) split Sixties Icon and Tranquil Tiger in May and will be up there again. Lion Sands (11/1, bluesq) offers the best e/w value but not quite at an e/w price. :-(
250
a nice big handicap, so lets find a nice e/w bet. Express Wish (15/2f) is too short so avoid. The next half dozen or so just aren't backable in the 10-12 bracket even if they have decent chances. I want bigger in this size field. Having a quick lok at the trends suggest that there won't be a winner bigger than 10/1 (0/10) and Dandy Nicholls won the race 4 times in a row, but hasn't won for 6 years. So we're looking at a steamer in the market that will start @ 10/1.
Both Northern Dare (10/1) and Harrison George (10/1) have been nibbled this morning and both have their merits, I prefer the former of the two. Pusey Street Lady (28/1, bluesq) would be my tentative value selection but would like some more rain and I can't see it being soft enough for her. So all in all, not a betting proposition again...
330
A much bigger winner expected here just need to find some likely types. I backed Dhaular Dhar (16/1) in saturday's 2nd but steps up to a mile today. Won at Chester over a mile last season, but 7f is perfect. Badly drawn today. Masaalek (11/2) IS well drawn and worthy favourite, but wouldn't back it with stolen money at that price. Cape Hawk (11/1) is also well drawn and I fancy it's worth backing, but never like e/ws at less than 12/1, though with 1/4 odds available I guess it isn't soooo bad. Of the other well drawn horses, Dubai's Touch (10/1) looks like he already has his draw factored into his price coz he ain't "all that". Fifteen Love (6/1) is NO VALUE at all, and Huzzah (25/1, sportingbet) is a lovely horse (yes, I backed his win at Chester hehe) and I wouldn't put you off him at all at 25s... super price. At humungous prices and not terribly drawn in 8 & 9 are Regal Parade (20/1) and Vitznau (33/1, bluesq, skybet). Regal Parade beat the in-form Dhaular Dhar at Ascot and is a consistant sort who I expect to make the palces. Vitznau good 4th to Little White Lie at Epsom gives some confidence and he's a tough little cookie at a mouthwatering price. all in all its about time we had a bet and Regal Parade (20/1, boylesports 1/3 odds) and Vitznau look the e/w good things here. Huzzah is value but only at the 25/1 with sportingbet.
405
2yo races are not really my thing, so I can safely skip it. Oh Saxford (8/1, Ladbrokes) if i was there. do it in a toteswinger bet with Prolific (26/5, sportingbet).
440
Ditto.....
515
Fancied Our Faye (20/1, Ladbrokes, Hills) for a few races now and of course I was working when he won @ 12/1 last time. Very consistant and just the type to do something in this. Of the favs, Visit (13/5, sportingbet) is a bit short for a horse that always finds one too good. Red Dune (11/2, totesport) is nicely drawn and is one for the shortlist and Cheyenne Star (7/1, Vcbet, Ladbrokes, Hills), has the draw to overcome here and a topweight, but is star quality. all in all I'm with Our Faye at a tasty price.
550
Little Pete (16/1, Ladbrokes) looks a huge price considering he's a good horse. I'm ignoring his last run at Ascot as he was badly drawn. Lots of short priced horses that Pete can beat and I think he's a decent bet. Chartist (12/1) isn't quite the value of Little Pete, but another who's last run should be ignored and to concentrate on his consistant place record this season.
The 4.50 @ Perth produced a very similar result to the day before with Eightfifysix (2nd) beating Fourpointone (3rd). both going down to a very good winner in Valerius. Northern Spy was backed into 8/1 before playing up before the race (according to RP) and running crappy. Worth watching out for again.
Goodwood
215
A nice little opener but i can't find an edge. I've never backed Sixties Icon (11/4), can't quite put my finger on it probably coz he's never offered the value or maybe the Morning Line/Racing Post have fawned over him like a newborn. Of the two I'd prefer Tranquil Tiger (5/1, sportingbet, partybets) who's a gutsy horse but I won't be having a bet in this. Stotsford (6/1) can't get in the frame this season and Galactic Star (5/1) split Sixties Icon and Tranquil Tiger in May and will be up there again. Lion Sands (11/1, bluesq) offers the best e/w value but not quite at an e/w price. :-(
250
a nice big handicap, so lets find a nice e/w bet. Express Wish (15/2f) is too short so avoid. The next half dozen or so just aren't backable in the 10-12 bracket even if they have decent chances. I want bigger in this size field. Having a quick lok at the trends suggest that there won't be a winner bigger than 10/1 (0/10) and Dandy Nicholls won the race 4 times in a row, but hasn't won for 6 years. So we're looking at a steamer in the market that will start @ 10/1.
Both Northern Dare (10/1) and Harrison George (10/1) have been nibbled this morning and both have their merits, I prefer the former of the two. Pusey Street Lady (28/1, bluesq) would be my tentative value selection but would like some more rain and I can't see it being soft enough for her. So all in all, not a betting proposition again...
330
A much bigger winner expected here just need to find some likely types. I backed Dhaular Dhar (16/1) in saturday's 2nd but steps up to a mile today. Won at Chester over a mile last season, but 7f is perfect. Badly drawn today. Masaalek (11/2) IS well drawn and worthy favourite, but wouldn't back it with stolen money at that price. Cape Hawk (11/1) is also well drawn and I fancy it's worth backing, but never like e/ws at less than 12/1, though with 1/4 odds available I guess it isn't soooo bad. Of the other well drawn horses, Dubai's Touch (10/1) looks like he already has his draw factored into his price coz he ain't "all that". Fifteen Love (6/1) is NO VALUE at all, and Huzzah (25/1, sportingbet) is a lovely horse (yes, I backed his win at Chester hehe) and I wouldn't put you off him at all at 25s... super price. At humungous prices and not terribly drawn in 8 & 9 are Regal Parade (20/1) and Vitznau (33/1, bluesq, skybet). Regal Parade beat the in-form Dhaular Dhar at Ascot and is a consistant sort who I expect to make the palces. Vitznau good 4th to Little White Lie at Epsom gives some confidence and he's a tough little cookie at a mouthwatering price. all in all its about time we had a bet and Regal Parade (20/1, boylesports 1/3 odds) and Vitznau look the e/w good things here. Huzzah is value but only at the 25/1 with sportingbet.
405
2yo races are not really my thing, so I can safely skip it. Oh Saxford (8/1, Ladbrokes) if i was there. do it in a toteswinger bet with Prolific (26/5, sportingbet).
440
Ditto.....
515
Fancied Our Faye (20/1, Ladbrokes, Hills) for a few races now and of course I was working when he won @ 12/1 last time. Very consistant and just the type to do something in this. Of the favs, Visit (13/5, sportingbet) is a bit short for a horse that always finds one too good. Red Dune (11/2, totesport) is nicely drawn and is one for the shortlist and Cheyenne Star (7/1, Vcbet, Ladbrokes, Hills), has the draw to overcome here and a topweight, but is star quality. all in all I'm with Our Faye at a tasty price.
550
Little Pete (16/1, Ladbrokes) looks a huge price considering he's a good horse. I'm ignoring his last run at Ascot as he was badly drawn. Lots of short priced horses that Pete can beat and I think he's a decent bet. Chartist (12/1) isn't quite the value of Little Pete, but another who's last run should be ignored and to concentrate on his consistant place record this season.
Wednesday 30 July 2008
the best of the rest
Perth
4.50 The 2 horses that ran last night are running here again and i think they are worth looking at again. Eight Fifty Six (16/1, Hills) gets a 7lb pull (including his claimer) on Fourpointone (18/1, Hills) for being beaten 3l last night. So the first mentioned is my e/w selection here.
Kempton
8.30 The Fifth Member (9/2, Paddy, Hills) (dual winner here in the last 5 weeks), ran well for place money at Goodwood yesterday. Looks a solid sort and I expect he'll challenge again. I'm tempted by Northern Spy (16/1, Paddys), too big a price IMHO and whilst he is nothing more than a speculative punt, he's got the armoury to run a good race and a rather interesting price.
Paddy Power now offer guaranteed odds on all internet prices. Not that my e/w selections ever drift, but if they do it's worth using them.
4.50 The 2 horses that ran last night are running here again and i think they are worth looking at again. Eight Fifty Six (16/1, Hills) gets a 7lb pull (including his claimer) on Fourpointone (18/1, Hills) for being beaten 3l last night. So the first mentioned is my e/w selection here.
Kempton
8.30 The Fifth Member (9/2, Paddy, Hills) (dual winner here in the last 5 weeks), ran well for place money at Goodwood yesterday. Looks a solid sort and I expect he'll challenge again. I'm tempted by Northern Spy (16/1, Paddys), too big a price IMHO and whilst he is nothing more than a speculative punt, he's got the armoury to run a good race and a rather interesting price.
Paddy Power now offer guaranteed odds on all internet prices. Not that my e/w selections ever drift, but if they do it's worth using them.
Glorious
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Finally a little ME time... A day off and nothing planned. You haven't missed much, although I'd have given you the Exacta 0f £525 for saturday's Heritage Handicap, but who wants to hear about that.
Righto, on to more pressing matters and Glorious Goodwood... Yesterday was pretty decent stuff but no edge at this end and I reckon there's more of the same today.
2.15
This looks a cracking race, but its hard to pick a value horse and is one to leave alone. At the head of the market we have Som Tala (15/2), La Vecchia Scuola (8/1), Mudawin (10/1), Tomina (11/1) and Daylami Dreams (12/1). Off all of those 5, Tomina doesn't justify such a short price having never won above Class 5 (This is C2), but the others offer good chances but not too much value. If I had to have a bet, a small interest on Baddam @ 16/1 (vcbet, skybet) would be the order of the day.
2.50
2 year olds.... nice..... Especially nice that they have a favourite that hasn't won yet as well.. and Sayif looks beatable, but is only going to be beaten by something less short, so got to find something. If i had to stick my neck out, it would be nearer to Gladstone's than Spart..er... Christiano's, then Lord Shankill (6/1) offers a little of the old V-word..... There is a horse at 20/1 (Ladbrokes) that is far too big on what he's shown so far but Shaweel just should not be that price. Whether he takes to the track is a different matter, but @ 20/1 you don't need to own QPR to get a decent return.
3.30
Henry should win and with 6 runners there no e/w for me. The only chink in his armour could be the track, but only Tariq can handle that and I don't think he's good enough.
4.05
On the face of it another tough handicap, but I've a feelin' in me bones that a biggie will win this and it could be a nice placepot cracker. Howdigo (20/1) is the bottom weight (my favs) and looks the type to improve for this. Another bred for this step up in trip is Love Galore (18/1 bet365) and the booking of Johnny Murtagh is a good sign. The 3rd selection is Always Bold (14/1) . Trip could be on the short-side according to Spotlight but isn't one to cast away yet.
4.40
I wasn't convinced by Lee Miller LTO, but he got me up a nice placepot so I won't be too harsh on him, whether he justifies favouritism here is questionable. Perfect Star (14/1) was a good thing last year and returns after a year out. If he wasn't top weight, I'd consider it, but can't justify putting the money down. One to watch in the market as he must be in decent shape to come straight here. Reccomended Farley Star (20/1) in my first blog entry and ran a creditable 5th. Should be there-or-there-abouts this time as well. Algarade (15/2) could be the answer here.
5.15
Victoria Sponge (5/2) would be a normal lay on my 2 yo system (more another time), but this looks weak. A Goodwood Class 2 Maiden looks a strange place to give a horse its debut, I reckon the owners want a decent day out on the champers personally and have badgered the trainer to stick him in. Avoid as a betting proposition, stick the fav in with a couple of market steamers for your placepot.
5.50
Looks like an important lucky last for most punters. Firestreak (11/4, paddys) and We'll Come (3/1) look good shouts. Flawed Genius (3/1) looks too short given what he's done. Therefore a possible e/w steal here. (You) Need to decide between, Monkey Glas (16/1) and Mujood (16/1). who can both make the frame and can even win the thing.
I'll sort out the other cards in a bit.
Tuesday 22 July 2008
A quick update whilst I'm around.
Bangor-On-Dee
8.00
Ease The Way is 12/1 in most places and I reckon this is extremely good value.... As long as we get the 8 runners I expect it to be in the frame.... I;d rate this more as a 4/1 shot in my system and I recommend a bet here.
8.30
Powers And Soda (20/1 William Hill) was 4th to Yellow Flag LTO and probably isn't going to beat it this time... however he's still not too bad a horse and the 20/1 is pretty good e/w value here....
9.00
Possible e/w value here in the shape of Brochrua @ 20/1. Also watch out for a market move for one of the bottom weights, Beauty One (14/1). Not run for 14 months, but making debut for new yard with an in form trainer and also in 1st time blinkers. Much more competative here so no mortgage jobbie.
Right, Off to take in the scenes in St. Aines tonight as Brentford pay visit to the Swans.....
Bangor-On-Dee
8.00
Ease The Way is 12/1 in most places and I reckon this is extremely good value.... As long as we get the 8 runners I expect it to be in the frame.... I;d rate this more as a 4/1 shot in my system and I recommend a bet here.
8.30
Powers And Soda (20/1 William Hill) was 4th to Yellow Flag LTO and probably isn't going to beat it this time... however he's still not too bad a horse and the 20/1 is pretty good e/w value here....
9.00
Possible e/w value here in the shape of Brochrua @ 20/1. Also watch out for a market move for one of the bottom weights, Beauty One (14/1). Not run for 14 months, but making debut for new yard with an in form trainer and also in 1st time blinkers. Much more competative here so no mortgage jobbie.
Right, Off to take in the scenes in St. Aines tonight as Brentford pay visit to the Swans.....
Sunday 20 July 2008
I could tell you the story about the £10 treble that won £138,000....
not too shabby a first tipping post....
Autograph Hunter came 3rd .... noice... and Snoopy Loopy was a 20/1 winner in the big race, McEvoy was placed 4th.
Typically my 'watch and see' at Lingfield, Tabulate wins (was 33/1).... not a bean on it of course.....
Sunday is a work day, and luckily the racing looks too competative for me to get into... GOOD.... i hate betting at work, too time consuming on my phone and usually miss the prices anyway, and i feel oh so guilty when I win and you lot don't .... hehe
I shall sit and watch Greg Norman win the Open, Lewis win the GP and SA win the cricket. Oh shit no I won't .. no Sky.... piss.... Oh well my dabble on SA @ 11/8 looks like coming home. Shame I missed the 12/1 on Ashwell Prince for the series..... pfft..
Little bit of poker on Pokerstars tonight, 7th in a 45 runner jobbie. Usual donk out AQ vs KQ... Flop KAK.... ironic eh....
Time for bed.... Lots of customers to service tomorrow...
Autograph Hunter came 3rd .... noice... and Snoopy Loopy was a 20/1 winner in the big race, McEvoy was placed 4th.
Typically my 'watch and see' at Lingfield, Tabulate wins (was 33/1).... not a bean on it of course.....
Sunday is a work day, and luckily the racing looks too competative for me to get into... GOOD.... i hate betting at work, too time consuming on my phone and usually miss the prices anyway, and i feel oh so guilty when I win and you lot don't .... hehe
I shall sit and watch Greg Norman win the Open, Lewis win the GP and SA win the cricket. Oh shit no I won't .. no Sky.... piss.... Oh well my dabble on SA @ 11/8 looks like coming home. Shame I missed the 12/1 on Ashwell Prince for the series..... pfft..
Little bit of poker on Pokerstars tonight, 7th in a 45 runner jobbie. Usual donk out AQ vs KQ... Flop KAK.... ironic eh....
Time for bed.... Lots of customers to service tomorrow...
Saturday 19 July 2008
Lincolnshire welcomes Cavey Wavey
Ripon doesn't look great from a value POV today. Salsa Star and Heaven Or Hell are the best 2 yo's in the first 2 races and I'm not trying to get them beat in the placepot.
A little value in the 4.00, where it wouldn't be a surprise to see Laterly (9/2) win at the expense of Celt.
Market Rasen
2.05 The 1st Scoop6 race. A couple in here that have won me money. Up in class the both of them. Wizard Of Us (14/1) was 20/1 when winning LTO :-) an and Moon Star (20/1) is tough as they come. Get the favourite beat in this and you're laughing. Sporazene (15/2) could be the one. Irish Horse, Eye Candy (16/1) comes over with some excellent winter form over the fences, but hasn't run over hurdles for a couple of years whehe he wasn't that great. Strange, a market move for this will be interesting... keep em peeled.
2.40 Horrible race tbh. Stick in a couple of market principles and Galley Slave (16/1) with Hills which looks over priced considering most of these are destinined for worse things.
3.10 Ladino is a NR, shame.... Ursis and That Look are probables but Cold Mountain (7/1) Hills looks pretty overpriced.
3.40 The last Scoop 6, i doubt it will be won. Oumeyade must be the unluckiest horse alive, falling (when he couldn't lose) taking the wrong course (when he couldn't lose), but has come back with some nice wins since. Funnily enough I'm against it here and want it battered into the ground by Captain Caveman. I spotted William Butler @ 16/1, 4 races ago. 4 wins later and he is everybody's darlin'. Piss off and find your own horses. 2 big ones against the field, Snoopy Loopy (20/1) and McEvoy (18/1). Best race of the afternoon.... oh yes.... now if only the Teen Angels were coming round to sit on my... sofa?... yes, sofa.
4.15 Southern Regent (3/1) offers alittle value. Places should be filled by the 3 favs and no shocks here.
4.50 Open looking race, stearing clear of Mey Clouds your only mission.
5.10 Double Mead (9/4) a worthy favourite. Not a bet though at that price.
A quick scout about for tonight, nothing at Haydock, but Lingfield looks more interesting.
5.50 Autograph Hunter (25/1) http://www.ladbrokes.com/ , www.skybet.com . Not a lot in this and i think this one may have got under the radar. I think 25/1 e/w is a cracking price, it won't last long.
6.20 Very competative and a few big priced horses not without a chance. Every-so-often Tabulate tables a good run. This looks like her best chance for ages if she wants it. 33/1 with Hills, but i'd rather watch for signs of improvement here (without her in the frame) and nail the bookies next time. I don't like backing top-weights and Green Pirate (20/1) has this problem. I wouldn't be surprised to see a good run.
My only e/w bet is
Lin5.50 Autograph Hunter @ 25/1.
Not So Lucky 31*
Nmk3.05 Kal Barg @ 11/2
MR3.10 Cold Mountain @ 7/1
Nmk3.35 Cape @ 13/2
Rip4.00 Laterly @ 9/2
MR4.15 Southern Regent @ 3/1
If you're spending £31 on a L31... half your bets are losers after 1 loss. I'd rather load the stakesat the front end.
£3 singles (5 bets = £15)
£1 doubles (10 bets = £10)
50p trebles (10 bets = £5)
25p four-folds (5 bets = £1.25)
25p five-fold (1 bet = 25p )
Just a quick note. http://www.bet365.com/ , http://www.stanjames.com/, http://www.betdirect.com/ offer guaranteed odds on all UK horse racing. Especially useful when backing short-priced favourites, which invariably drift when the market opens.
Stan James look to have bought out www.betterbet.com this week.
titles are for wimps....
Ah, my favourite betting day, where quality shines through in the big races.... and i don't win.
Well, I've missed the Channel 4's Boring Line thanks to a combination of oversleeping - GOOD and Sky not working - BAD . The show where pompous fools pat each other on the back whist never tipping anything outside the top 4 in the betting..... grrrrrr. There are a couple of exceptions, in the excellent John Francome and Tanya who likes a nice e/w pick and isn't afraid to say it. More ranting over the weeks I'm sure.... Right onto the betting..
Newmarket
1.30 Liberation Spirit (7/4) looks a pretty good favourite here but I don't like that so lets delve a little deeper. Andaman Sunset (5/1) beat Orchestration (12/1) as a 2yo, however hasn't gone on to better things this season. Orchestration hasn't run since and his delayed absence is interesting. His trainer is sending him down to the home of racing and he must think he has a chance. Definitely one for your placepot, whether he's solid enough to consider backing is a tricky one. I'd probably want bigger than 12/1 currently on offer from http://www.skybet.com/
2.00 Lake Windemere is another solid favourite in Division II of this race. Nothing else springs to mind.
2.35 Dar Re Mi is a quality horse, and http://www.ladbrokes.com/ 's 11/4 will look a huge price if he wins (the 3yo's get 12-15lbs over the older horses). Ronaldsay (8/1) is in form and is a danger. Folk Opera to make the frame. Can't have Arthur's Girl or Icon Project and i rate Pentatonic (12/1) to beat those.
3.05 Kal Barg (11/2) looks an outstanding price here stepping up to a mile.
3.35 If Cape (13/2) gets the luck, he'll win, if he doesn't he won't. FACT with added TRUE :D
4.10 2yo races... whoopie doo... great for the placepot... not. I don't do 'breeding bollox', if I'm at the races i'll do the paddock, but not from my armchair. I do like my trends though and only 1 double-figure drawn winner in the last 10. Worth noting... The favourites (with a run) all have decent draws.
4.45 Fregate Island (9/2jf) looks a tempting price. However has too much seconditis to be certain
5.15 Not in the placepot, a really competative handicap, time for a beer.
Leg1 Liberation Spirit, Orchestration
Leg2 Lake Windermere + 1
Leg3 Dar Re Mi, Ronaldsay
Leg4 Kal Barg
Leg5 Cape
Leg6 3 of the low drawn horses.
Not a great placepot, really need the favourites out of the frame in the first 2. Could put in another in the 3rd leg for protection. 24 lines is cheap enough.
Newbury
1.50 Nasty little race for placepot purposes, but if we can get Oratory out of the frame it will be an excellent start. Awinnersgame and upto any 4 of the other chances (except Kaiser Willie) in the placepot.
2.20 Corrybrough looks an excellent 3yo, but we must get him beat if the placepot is to pay. Stick in 2 others as insurance, Balthazaar's Gift is one, Strike The Deal isn't.
2.50 Not the most difficult Scoop6 race ever (that's next). Maghya (7/2f) has finished in the top 2 in every race she's run. The 2 2nd favs, Fragrancy and Lindelaan should be around. A bigger priced possible winner is Farley Star (12/1) now that she has some Class 2 experience.
3.25 Wow, good luck hehe...... no, ok.... Penny's Gift (3/1) is far too short... Stick in 4 others at the top of the market and hope for the best.... byeeee....
3.55 Can't put you off any. This is bloody tough and I wish you good luck in your quest, sir.
4.30 Is Bankable (13/8f), Bankable??. Beaten by the draw last time as they forgot they actually could have used the other side of the track. This time he should hose up. If he doesn't then the placepot is gonna be huge. Stick him in with 2 others. Halicarnasus (16/1) (http://www.bluesq.com/ , http://www.sportingbet.com/ ) backed last time has a chance and Wise Dennis (20/1) is class. Making his return this season after a sucessful stint in Dubai. Last year he won on his seasonal bow.
5.00 Looks a nice opportunity for Calculating (13/2) http://www.williamhill.com/ . All wins on AW but this looks a better race for him. The underrated Davie Probert on baord takes off 7lbs.
Leg1 Awinnersgame + 4
Leg2 Corrybrough, Balthazaar's Gift
Leg3 Maghya
Leg4 4 picks
Leg5 4 picks
Leg6 Bankable
Had to cut down and hope the bankers do the bizz. 160 lines, ideally another in legs 2,3 & 5. Possibly cut one off leg 1 to compensate.
knackered..... more later possibly... but the crickets on, the golf's on and i'm hungry...
Well, I've missed the Channel 4's Boring Line thanks to a combination of oversleeping - GOOD and Sky not working - BAD . The show where pompous fools pat each other on the back whist never tipping anything outside the top 4 in the betting..... grrrrrr. There are a couple of exceptions, in the excellent John Francome and Tanya who likes a nice e/w pick and isn't afraid to say it. More ranting over the weeks I'm sure.... Right onto the betting..
Newmarket
1.30 Liberation Spirit (7/4) looks a pretty good favourite here but I don't like that so lets delve a little deeper. Andaman Sunset (5/1) beat Orchestration (12/1) as a 2yo, however hasn't gone on to better things this season. Orchestration hasn't run since and his delayed absence is interesting. His trainer is sending him down to the home of racing and he must think he has a chance. Definitely one for your placepot, whether he's solid enough to consider backing is a tricky one. I'd probably want bigger than 12/1 currently on offer from http://www.skybet.com/
2.00 Lake Windemere is another solid favourite in Division II of this race. Nothing else springs to mind.
2.35 Dar Re Mi is a quality horse, and http://www.ladbrokes.com/ 's 11/4 will look a huge price if he wins (the 3yo's get 12-15lbs over the older horses). Ronaldsay (8/1) is in form and is a danger. Folk Opera to make the frame. Can't have Arthur's Girl or Icon Project and i rate Pentatonic (12/1) to beat those.
3.05 Kal Barg (11/2) looks an outstanding price here stepping up to a mile.
3.35 If Cape (13/2) gets the luck, he'll win, if he doesn't he won't. FACT with added TRUE :D
4.10 2yo races... whoopie doo... great for the placepot... not. I don't do 'breeding bollox', if I'm at the races i'll do the paddock, but not from my armchair. I do like my trends though and only 1 double-figure drawn winner in the last 10. Worth noting... The favourites (with a run) all have decent draws.
4.45 Fregate Island (9/2jf) looks a tempting price. However has too much seconditis to be certain
5.15 Not in the placepot, a really competative handicap, time for a beer.
Leg1 Liberation Spirit, Orchestration
Leg2 Lake Windermere + 1
Leg3 Dar Re Mi, Ronaldsay
Leg4 Kal Barg
Leg5 Cape
Leg6 3 of the low drawn horses.
Not a great placepot, really need the favourites out of the frame in the first 2. Could put in another in the 3rd leg for protection. 24 lines is cheap enough.
Newbury
1.50 Nasty little race for placepot purposes, but if we can get Oratory out of the frame it will be an excellent start. Awinnersgame and upto any 4 of the other chances (except Kaiser Willie) in the placepot.
2.20 Corrybrough looks an excellent 3yo, but we must get him beat if the placepot is to pay. Stick in 2 others as insurance, Balthazaar's Gift is one, Strike The Deal isn't.
2.50 Not the most difficult Scoop6 race ever (that's next). Maghya (7/2f) has finished in the top 2 in every race she's run. The 2 2nd favs, Fragrancy and Lindelaan should be around. A bigger priced possible winner is Farley Star (12/1) now that she has some Class 2 experience.
3.25 Wow, good luck hehe...... no, ok.... Penny's Gift (3/1) is far too short... Stick in 4 others at the top of the market and hope for the best.... byeeee....
3.55 Can't put you off any. This is bloody tough and I wish you good luck in your quest, sir.
4.30 Is Bankable (13/8f), Bankable??. Beaten by the draw last time as they forgot they actually could have used the other side of the track. This time he should hose up. If he doesn't then the placepot is gonna be huge. Stick him in with 2 others. Halicarnasus (16/1) (http://www.bluesq.com/ , http://www.sportingbet.com/ ) backed last time has a chance and Wise Dennis (20/1) is class. Making his return this season after a sucessful stint in Dubai. Last year he won on his seasonal bow.
5.00 Looks a nice opportunity for Calculating (13/2) http://www.williamhill.com/ . All wins on AW but this looks a better race for him. The underrated Davie Probert on baord takes off 7lbs.
Leg1 Awinnersgame + 4
Leg2 Corrybrough, Balthazaar's Gift
Leg3 Maghya
Leg4 4 picks
Leg5 4 picks
Leg6 Bankable
Had to cut down and hope the bankers do the bizz. 160 lines, ideally another in legs 2,3 & 5. Possibly cut one off leg 1 to compensate.
knackered..... more later possibly... but the crickets on, the golf's on and i'm hungry...
Introduction... :wave:
Welcome to what will hopefully be an informative blog on the betting thoughts of myself and valued contributers.
Firstly, let me introduce myself. I'm a.. ahem 30-something male.... working in the bookmaking industry and having spent the first few gambling years making losses - some too big to remember :-/ - but have managed to turn my losses into decent profits by searching out the value. I won't be producing 'tips' here as such, but will post my betting thoughts for you to absorb and follow if you wish. My main interest is in backing (and laying) horses and betting on football and cricket. I particularly back e/w @ 12/1 or more (hence the value), or back shorter-priced horses in doubles and trebles. I also have the odd dabble in placepots when bored and do too many silly bets for my own good.
For my sins, I'm a huge Brentford fan and follow the mighty 'Sex in the County Championship. I also have another passion in poker and will from time to time unload my bad beats onto the unsuspecting public... ie YOU. Please be understanding and don't yawn!!
Signing off..... ps I hate saturday racing.... you have been warned
Firstly, let me introduce myself. I'm a.. ahem 30-something male.... working in the bookmaking industry and having spent the first few gambling years making losses - some too big to remember :-/ - but have managed to turn my losses into decent profits by searching out the value. I won't be producing 'tips' here as such, but will post my betting thoughts for you to absorb and follow if you wish. My main interest is in backing (and laying) horses and betting on football and cricket. I particularly back e/w @ 12/1 or more (hence the value), or back shorter-priced horses in doubles and trebles. I also have the odd dabble in placepots when bored and do too many silly bets for my own good.
For my sins, I'm a huge Brentford fan and follow the mighty 'Sex in the County Championship. I also have another passion in poker and will from time to time unload my bad beats onto the unsuspecting public... ie YOU. Please be understanding and don't yawn!!
Signing off..... ps I hate saturday racing.... you have been warned
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