Monday 13 March 2017

Cheltenham Festival - 2017 - Day One

DAY ONE

Skybet Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Grade 1 - 2m 87y

Overview
The first race of a gruelling but fantastic 4 days and one that a lot less predictable than it was 20 years ago, where big priced winners were the norm. Latterly horses at the front of the market have prevailed, but not necessarily favourites. There are still plenty of jollies who don’t fit the profile and get turned over, Dunguib and Cue Card spring to mind. This year Melon could be that jolly.

10-year Trends
10/10 Had won over 2 miles. The last 6 had won over 2m1/2f or further.
10/10 Had won at least 50% of their hurdles.
10/10 Had run between 2 and 5 times over hurdles
10/10 Had run less than 11 times in total in their career.
  9/10 Had achieved an Adjusted Racing Post Rating (RPR) of at least 146. [Ebazayan, only 121 in 2007]. All had an Official Rating (OR) of 139+ or hadn't yet achieved a rating.
  9/10 Were aged 5 or 6. [Captain Cee Bee was aged 7 in 2008]
  9/10 Had won last time out (LTO). [Menorah, 2nd in 2010]
  8/10 Had run within the last 59 days. [Exceptions 80 and 115 days]
  8/10 Were rated within 13lbs of the Top RPR.
  8/10 Were not flat-bred horses. [The last 8 winners]
  7/10 Had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Hurdle. 7 of the last 8 winners had achieved this. The exceptions had not run in one, (winning a Class 2 Hurdle) and the other 2, an Irish Maiden Hurdle.

Additionally
38 of the last 42 winners were aged 5 or 6.
Only one 4-year old has won in the last 42 years [Hors La Loi III in 1999]
20 of the last 22 winners had run within the last 68 days.
17 of the last 22 winners had run within the last 45 days.
18 of the last 20 winners had won last time.
No horses who had run on the flat have been placed since 2008.

Ages (Win-Place-Runs)
4yo 0-1-4
5yo 4-12-81
6yo 5-6-64
7yo 1-1-18
8yo 0-0-4
9yo 0-1-1

Trainers (Win-Place-Runs)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 4-2-22
Nicky Henderson 1-9-19
Henry De Bromhead (Ire) 0-1-2
Alan King 0-1-4

Contenders - 10 year trends - winner averaged 4.5 stars
Ballyandy 3/1 ****
Won the Betfair Hurdle last time and has to go close in this. Worry that race doesn’t throw up many winners.
Beyond Conceit 20/1 ***
Hasn’t done much wrong in both starts, but needs to step up massively here, place chance if doing so. Flat-breds have a poor recent record though.
Bunk Off Early 6/1 ****
Looked the winner at the last at Leopardstown last time, but was beaten on the run in. Has a chance, but Cheltenham’s hill is unforgiving. Flat-bred another negative.
Capital Force 66/1 ***
Slow start to career before winning an 18 runner maiden at Thurles last time, form of that not too hot, but ticks plenty of boxes for his price.
Cilaos Emery 20/1 ****
Turned over at odds-on last time, if he’d won that, he’d be a 5/1 shot. If he wins this, get on Mick Jazz on friday.
Crack Mome 10/1 ****
Form not working out well from his last race, likely to find a few too good here as well.
Elgin 25/1 ****
Flat-bred. Beaten River Wylde (gave 3lbs for 3 length defeat), could run well again, but that last defeat was only 17 days ago.
Glaring 66/1 *
Should be outclassed here.
High Bridge 16/1 ***
Progressive but at too low a level to win this surely. Place chance if stepping up.
Labaik 40/1 **
Refused to race 4 time in last 7 races, and that’s before he’s heard the Cheltenham Roar.
Magna Cartor 100/1 *
Exposed 7yo plodder, won’t be finishing this.
Melon 11/4f ***
Will have to overcome plenty of negatives. Didn’t beat that much in his only hurdles start either, if he wins, he wins
Pingshou 50/1 **
Clattered the last with every chance in Listed contest last time. Could run better than his price suggests.
River Wylde 8/1 *****
Perfect on my trends, however the Dovecote win was only 17 days ago, and that’s why they have a bad record here.

Conclusions
There are cracks in the armour of evey horse apart from River Wylde (8/1) but I’m a little worried about a hard race just 17 days ago. Ballyandy (3/1) won the Betfair Hurdle, but that’s his only hurdle win and should be in the mix. Melon is too short for me, having run what looks a poor maiden, (2nd beaten 4 times since). ELGIN (28/1, Ladbrokes) will be closer to River Wylde on levels this time, again a 17 day break isn’t ideal, but at that price he doesn’t have to win. High Bridge (16/1) needs to step up, but was 6th in the bumper and has won easily this season, his rider can’t claim the 7lbs allowance in this, but is 4/4 on the horse (1/5 other riders). Plenty of offer for the first race of the festival, possibly extra places as well, shop around.


Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase – Grade 1 - 2m

Overview
In recent years this has become a race to watch rather than bet in with 4 odds-on favourites hosing up with little opposition and in small fields so little opportunity of an each-way bet. Altior bids to extend that record. He should win if he completes.

10-year Trends
10/10 Top 2 in all Chase finishes.
10/10 Had run within the last 80 days.
10/10 Were not flat-bred.
  9/10 Aged 6 or 7 years old. Five older horses aged 9 or older have failed to make the frame. [Sizing Europe was 8 years old in 2010.]
  9/10 An Adjusted RPR of 160 or more. (10/10 OR 147+ or unrated.) [Exception: Western Warhorse 148]
  9/10 Rated within 6lbs of the RPR Top Rated. [Exception: Western Warhorse (23lbs) in 2014]
  9/10 Ran to a Hurdles rating of 143 or more. [Exception: Western Warhorse 130]
  8/10 Had 3-5 Chase starts. Both exceptions less.
  8/10 Had won last time. [Exceptions were 2nd in Grade 1 and Class 2 Chases]
  8/10 Won a Novice Chase between 2m and 2m3f. Exceptions won at 2m4f and 2m41/2f.
  8/10 Had a course win or had a top 4 finish at a previous festival.

Additionally

28 of the last 30 winners had finished 1st or 2nd on their last start.
24 of the last 26 winners started at 9/1 or less.
17 of the last 19 winners had not unseated/fallen in their chase career.
15 of the last 17 winners had a hurdles rating of 142+,

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
  5yo 0-3-10
  6yo 3-3-30
  7yo 6-8-46
  8yo 1-3-15
  9yo 0-0-3
10yo 0-0-1
12yo 0-0-1

Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky Henderson 2-3-10
Willie Mullins (Ire) 2-1-9
Henry de Bromhead (Ire) 1-1-3

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.6 stars.
A Hare Breath 40/1 **
Lightly-raced for a 9 year old, but behind Forest Bihan and Cloudy Dream in Graded company last time.
Altior 2/7f *****
Cleary wouldn’t look out of place in the Champion Chase tomorrow, should win barring a fall.
Charbel 10/1 ***
Followed Altior home twice this season, and was 5th behind him in the Supreme Novices Hurdle last year. Could be the 2nd best in the race, however been absent since early December isn’t a positive.
Cloudy Dream 16/1 ****
Not rated highly over hurdles and beaten by Forest Bihan last time (giving weight). Place chance at best.
Forest Bihan 20/1 ****
Beat a couple of these, has place chances. Never run at Cheltenham is a small worry.
Ordinary World 40/1 ***
Need to look elsewhere.
Royal Caviar 14/1 ***
Fell at the last when challenging in Irish Arkle. Not sure that form is up to much and he has too many slight negatives to justify my backing.
Some Plan 20/1 ****
Was left alone in the Irish Arkle, but he’s 9 now and is passed over.
Three Stars 66/1 *
Just the one star here, not up to scratch.

Conclusions
ALTIOR (2/7fav) is clearly going to win if he stands up. However we have 9 runners and an each-way race. FOREST BIHAN (20/1) has solid each-way claims although he hasn’t run at the course before.

Ultima Handicap Chase – Grade 3 – 3m 1f

Overview
The first handicap of the meeting and although some the handicaps have started to see a large compression of the weights, this one is holding up quite well. Only one favourite has won recently. Don’t look for horses who’s best form is over shorter than 3 miles and young chasers have an excellent record so keep away from the exposed olduns.

10-year Trends
10/10 Aged between 7 and 10 years old.
10/10 OR no bigger than 148.
10/10 Won over 2 miles 71/2 furlongs or more.
  9/10 Had run between 2 and 5 times that season.
  9/10 Had achieved a Chase RPR of 143.
  8/10 Carried no more than 11-03 in weight.
  8/10 Had run within the last 47 days.
  7/10 Finished in the top 3in one of the last 2 starts. 2 winners were unplaced in decent Hurdle races last time.
  7/10 Had run less than 10 times over fences.

Additionally
The last 18 winners were aged between 7 and 10.
14 or the last 17 winners were official rated no more than 143, however the last 3 winners were above this indicating a sea-change in this race.
Only two horses aged 11 or more have placed since 1997.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
  6yo 0-3-14
  7yo 3-11-43
  8yo 4-1-50
  9yo 1-9-50
10yo 2-2-30
11yo 0-2-22
12yo 0-0-4
13yo 0-0-1

Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Jonjo O'Neill 3-1-13
David Pipe 2-3-15
Neil Mulholland 1-1-4
Alan King 1-1-9
Colin Tizzard 1-0-7
Gary Moore 0-1-4
Paul Nicholls 0-1-10
Venetia Williams 0-1-14

Contenders –10 year trends - winner averaged 3.8 stars.
Un Temps Pour Tout 12/1 ***
Last years winner, up 7lbs this year and that will probably stop him.
Noble Endeavour 7/1f ***
Another too high in the weights, opposable at the price.
Theatre Guide 25/1 **
Can’t see him troubling the judges in this.
Clarcam 50/1 *
Not good enough any more, certainly not over this far.
Viconte Du Noyer 33/1 **
Pulled-up last time and too high in the weights for this after winning a big handicap here in November.
Annacotty 50/1 **
Out of form.
The Young Master 20/1 ***
Think last year was his best chance when 3rd. Place chance possible.
Label Des Obeaux 16/1 ****
Only a 6 year old, but has place claims.
Holywell 14/1 ***
2nd last year, but completely out of form this season. This is his time of year though.
Junction Fourteen 33/1 ***
Distance worries and has been off for 4 months.
The Druids Nephew 10/1 **
Just the one start this year is a worry and I’ll bypass him this year.
Ibis Du Rheu 12/1 ****
Only 3 chase starts, so the fact that he hasn’t won over this far can be fudged as he’s done ok in defeat.
Measureofmydreams 20/1 ***
Form figures of F0-P means he’s easy to ignore.
Buywise 33/1 *
Has to be left alone until he finds some form.
Coologue 50/1 *****
Big price for a C&D winner this season, drops to within 4lbs of that winning mark, Charlie Longsdon’s never won at the festival, in fact just 1 place from 52 runners.
Caid Du Berlais 25/1 ****
Yet to win this far over fences. Disappointing in his last 3 runs, frame a possibility.
Henri Parry Morgan 12/1 *****
Looked the part in the past, but hasn’t completed in 3 of his last 5 Chases. Huge amount to be taken on trust with 24 runners.
Singlefarmpayment 15/2 *****
No faults here. Brought down when getting into the race last time. Big chance here, but price is about right.
Pilgrims Bay 25/1 ****
Only ran 17 days ago, in a tough Grade 3 handicap. Too soon?
Go Conquer 25/1 ***
Form over shorter, not good enough to win this.
Antony 50/1 ***
Not good enough here surely.
A Good Skin 33/1 ****
A good 2nd in the Kim Muir last year, however Tom George still hasn’t won at the festival (0-8-54), has place chances but is out of form.
Vintage Clouds 25/1 ***
Hasn’t won over this far but some good performances in defeat, this possibly too early in his career.
Vic De Touzaine 40/1 **
Form over shorter and is easily ignored.

Conclusions
Singlefarmpayment (15/2) is fairly priced, but no more. The each-way selection is IBIS DU RHEU (12/1, WHill 5pl) who is a novice with the bare 3 chase starts and won the Martin Pipe Hurdle last year.. One at a huge price is COOLOGUE (50/1, bet365 5pl), who was a C&D winner this season, although his record in Class 1’s isn’t too great.


Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy – Grade 1 – 2m1/2f

Overview
The last 2 winners, Faugheen and Annie Power are injured, the race looks wide open but not a vintage renewal. I think we can find reasons out why each horse can and can’t win and it looks an intriguing puzzle.

10-year Trends
10/10 Had won at the distance.
  9/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of 166 or more.
  9/10 Were rated within 8lbs of the RP Top Rated horse.
  9/10 Had between 5 and 12 Hurdle runs. [Exception: Hurricane Fly (19) was a previous winner.]
  9/10 Had won a Class 1 Hurdle that season, 6 won a Grade 1, 1 won a Grade 2 and 2 won a Listed race. Last year Annie Power had a single prep race before winning.
  8/10 Had run within the last 51 days. All ran within 79 days.
  8/10 Were aged between 6 and 8 years old. One exception was a previous winner. No horse aged 10 or more since Sea Pigeon in 1980 & 1981.
  8/10 Had won a Grade 1 Hurdle.
  7/10 Had won last time out. Exceptions were, 2nd, 3rd and 4th in Graded Hurdles.

Additionally
27 of the last 33 winners had won last time.
25 of the last 27 winners had won that season.
22 of the last 26 winners were from the first 5 in the betting.
21 of the last 25 winners had placed at a previous festival.
20 of the last 29 winners had won at Cheltenham.
The only 5-year-old to win since 1985 was Katchit in 2008.
Since 1951, only 4 winners were 9 or older. Only 2 winners were aged 10+
No reigning Supreme Novice Winner has won since 1971.
Since 1993, 2 winners had not run in that calendar year.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
  5yo 1-6-29
  6yo 3-6-33
  7yo 4-1-23
  8yo 1-4-16
  9yo 1-2-7
10yo 0-0-4
11yo 0-1-4
12yo 0-0-2
13yo 0-0-1

Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 4-4-14
Nicky Henderson 2-7-21
Alan King 1-0-6
Nigel Twiston-Davies 0-2-5
David Pipe 0-1-3

Contenders – –10 year trends - winner averaged 3.6 stars.
Brain Power 15/2 ****
Won 2 big handicaps this season, but in general handicappers don’t win Cheltenham Grade 1’s. Off for 87 days a negative, but could be more to come.
Buveur D’Air 4/1 ****
The Supreme Hurdle 3rd, switched from a Novice Chase career after this race fell apart. A.RPR of only 163 is short for the usual winner of this the drying ground isn’t is his favour.
Ch’Tibello 33/1 **
Shouldn’t be good enough to feature here.
Cyrus Darius 40/1 *
Not good enough for this.
Footpad 20/1 ***
A mixed campaign from the Triumph 3rd. Likely to be held-up and place chances at best.
Moon Racer 10/1 *
Novice Hurdler, given his chance as he’s had injury problems. David Pipe can get them fit after a break, but he’ll need to improve hugely to win this.
My Tent Or Yours 16/1 *
2nd in this twice, hasn’t been winning this season and is now 10 years old.
Petit Mouchoir 7/1 *****
Only 8th in last years Supreme Novice Hurdle, so he may not like the course. Likely to lead from the front so they’d better not give him too much of a lead. Perfect trendswise, but did fall in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle.
Sceau Royal 33/1 **
12th in the Triumph Hurdle last year, then won the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton, but hasn’t gone on since, may come into it if the ground dries out.
The New One 14/1 ***
Had his chance in last 3 years, no stand-out runner this year, but should find one or two too good.
Wicklow Brave 33/1 *
Off since he ran in the Melbourne Cup on 1st November. Would be an unusual routh for a winner of this.
Yanworth 3/1F *****
Might hit a flat spot in running but always responds to pressure, might like to be nearer the inside rail this year. Honest as they come and should be there or there abouts.

Conclusions
A really open contest and certainly not one to invest too much money in. Yanworth (3/1fav) could be a fantastic price come the end of the race or the worst favourite in the race for a while. He hits all the trends, but it’s Mark Walsh’s first sit on him after Barry Geraghty’s injury. I expect PETIT MOUCHOIR (7/1) to be allowed to bowl along in front, and if he settles well he could take some pegging back, and he is a tentative selection in this. Footpad (20/1) may be ridden to get in the places, but can’t win. All in all it’s not a vintage renewal and don’t be too surprised at the result.


OLBG (David Nicholson) Mares’ Hurdle – Grade 2 – 2m 31/2f

Overview
Willie Mullins’ record is sublime, with 7 wins from 9 (and should have won 2 years ago too). He has a lot less horses to shuffle around this season after Gigginstown Stud moved all their horses out of the yard. Vroum Vroum Mag and Limini will take all the beating.

9-year 'Trends'
9/9 Aged between 5 and 10 years old. [5-7 is the sweet spot, with Quevega winning 3 times aged 8-10]
9/9 Raced between 4 and 17 times over Hurdles. [4-10 hurdles with Quevega and a lucky Glenn’s Melody had more]
9/9 Rated within 23lbs of RP Top Rated. [4lbs looks more like it with 7/9 in that area]
8/9 Won over 2m4f or more. [Whiteoak won over 2m1f]
8/9 Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 156.
8/9 Had won a race worth £12k. [Whiteoak won a £6k race, 7/9 had won £28k or more.]
8/9 Won last time.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
  4yo 0-0-3
  5yo 2-1-24
  6yo 1-6-45
  7yo 3-5-39
  8yo 1-4-28
  9yo 1-1-8
10yo 1-0-3

Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 8-1-12
Alan King 0-1-5
Jessica Harrington (Ire) 0-1-6
.
Contenders– 9 year trends winner averaged 4.6 stars
Apple’s Jade 5/1 ****
Easily beaten by Limini last time, but has beaten Vroum Vroum Mag this year, should be there or there abouts.
Bon Chic 66/1 *
Plodding handicapper off since August.
Briery Queen 33/1 **
Suggestion is that she will fall short but close for ties with Lifeboat Mona off level weights.
Colin’s Sister 25/1 ****
Improving all the time, and could be the best British novice mare at the moment. Each-way chance here.
Debdebdeb 66/1 *
Has a bit to find with the British horses, let alone the Irish.
Hidden Identity 150/1 *
No win for over 3 years, no chance.
Indian Stream 50/1 **
Novice Chaser, unlikely winner here.
Jer’s Girl 8/1 ***
Not been at the races this season, but probably needs the step back up to 2m4f.
Lifeboat Mona 12/1 *****
Hits all the trends, maybe the best hope of the British.
Limini 5/4 *****
Likely to add to Willie Mullins roll of honour, but value must lie elsewhere.
Midnight Jazz 25/1 **
Gave Vroum Vroum Mag a big scare at Doncaster, that could be the best she can be.
Midnight Tour 66/1 **
Shouldn’t be good enough to challenge.
Miss Crick 66/1 **
Another without a chance.
Pass The Time 66/1 *
Been not winning over sticks, fences and on Tapeta at Newcastle, won’t be winning here too.
Rock On The Moor 50/1 *
Beaten by a few of these previously
Rons Dream 33/1 ****
9th last year, needs further need to be a bit closer to use her stamina at the end.
The Organist 50/1 ***
Been Novice Chasing, and would be surprise winner here.
Vroum Vroum Mag 2/1 *****
Last years winner, not as impressive this year, but should still be there at the finish.

Conclusions
The market has about right at the top of the market. I full expect Limini or Vroum Vroum Mag to win. Betting preference is for COLIN’S SISTER (33/1, Stan James) who is improving for every run. Worth checking out in any ‘without Limini/VVM’ markets or bookies with an extra place.


JT McNamara National Hunt Challenge Cup
(Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase) – Listed – 4m

Overview
The nature of the race has changed from a race for 2nd rate plodders to one where classy future champions compete (Gold Cup fav Native River was 2nd last year). That’s because penalties for Graded wins were removed in 2010. The lowest A.RPR for the winner since has been 154 (5 of the 6 159+), before 2010 it was in the 130s and early 140s.

10-Year Trends
10/10 Had raced over fences at least 3 times.
  9/10 Had finished in the top 2 in a Chase over at least 2 miles 71/2 furlongs.
  9/10 Had achieved a hurdles rating of 121 in their career.
  9/10 Had finished in the top 5 last time.
  9/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of 135 or better. [The last 6 154+]
  9/10 Were aged between 6 and 8 years old. [Exception: 9yo Midnight Prayer (2014)]
  8/10 Had been off the track for between 24 and 78 days.
  8/10 Had won over at least 3 miles in any sphere.
  8/10 Had finished in the top 2 in one of their last 2 starts.
  8/10 Had raced in a Graded Chase. [Exceptions won Class 2 & 3 Chases]

Additionally
The last 14 winners had at least 3 starts over fences.
11 of the last 15 winners had finished in the top 2 last time.
Since 1989, only two 5 or 6 year olds had won the race (2009 and 2016)
All 9 horses aged 10 and above were unplaced in the last 10 years.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
  6yo 2-2-26
  7yo 4-9-71
  8yo 3-7-5
  9yo 1-2-22
10yo 0-0-7
12yo 0-0-2

Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Alan King 2-1-9
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 2-0-4
Willie Mullins (Ire) 1-2-10
Rebecca Curtis 1-0-4
Nigel Twiston-Davies 1-0-7
David Pipe 0-2-7
Nicky Henderson 0-1-3
Paul Nicholls 0-1-7

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.3 stars
A Genie In Abottle 5/1jf *****
Jamie Codd rides, so that is a massive plus. He’s perfect on the trends, but I don’t like the form too much.
Arbre De Vie 20/1 ****
Found one too good in each of his chase starts this season, one to leave off the short-list here.
Arpege D’Alene 12/1 *****
Will have to bounce back from a disappointing run last time behind Bigbadjohn and Flintham, and Paul Nicholls doesn’t have much success in this.
Ballycross 40/1 ***
Shouldn’t be good enough here.
Bells ‘N’ Banjos 33/1 ***
Won both starts, but only at shorter and will need to improve massively here.
Beware The Bear 8/1 ****
Also on both starts, but crucially not a third. Could be good enough, but unproven at the top level.
Bigbadjohn 14/1 *****
Needs to cut out the odd jumping error, but strong at the finish, beating Flintham and Arpege D’Alene at Ascot last time.
Champers On Ice 8/1 ****
Thought he’d go for the Ultima Handicap earlier. He’s short enough for this and I’ll pass him over.
Dancing Shadow 25/1 *****
Will certainly stay the trip, but is he good enough.
Edwulf 5/1jf ****
Trip is a big unknown and he only ran 16 days ago. At the price he is left alone although Derek O’Connor rides him.
Flintham 20/1 *****
Doesn’t win ofter and outbattled by Bigbadjohn last time. Place chance possible.
Haymount 16/1 ***
Shouldn’t be good enough here.
Kerrow 33/1 ****
Another who shouldn’t be troubling anyone at the end.
Martello Tower 14/1 ***
Former Albert Bartlett winner, hasn’t been pulling up trees so far.
Missed Approach 33/1 ****
Tipped up at the first 17 days ago, so we can put a line through that, not really done enough for me.
Tiger Roll 20/1 ****
Former hurdle winner here, consistent but has been off for 134 days.
What A Moment 66/1 ***
Not good enough.
Calett Mad 25/1 ****
Backing a 5 year old over 4 miles IS a little mad, won’t be carrying my money.

Conclusions
Extremely hard race to predict as this will be the first attempt at 4 miles for most of the field. Jamie Codd and Derek O’Connor (plus Katie Walsh & Patrick Mullins) are excellent amateur pilots and must be respected but the price is factored in. An each-way bet on BIGBADJOHN (14/1, bet365 4places), seems like the value call here.


Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase – Listed – 2m 41/2f

Overview
The tightest handicap at the festival, so much so, it’s probably better to think of it as a level weights race. It was just a 4lb gap between top and bottom last year. Because horses have such a small band to hit to get a run, lots of the winners have been in form, 8 had finished top 2 on their last completion. I’ve abandoned any weight-related trend and found that all 10 winners had won a Class 3+ race of any kind, it doesn’t rule out many runners but is better than ruling out none.

10-year Trends
10/10 Aged under 10. Horses aged 6 or 7 have won 9 of the 12 renewals.
10/10 Had won at least a Class 3 Chase or Hurdle.
  9/10 Had finished in the top 3 last time they completed.
  9/10 Had raced over fences between 3 and 6 times.
  9/10 Had last run within the last 45 days.
  9/10 Hadn't won more than 2 chases. [Exception Hunt Ball won 6 as he went 50lbs up the ratings.]
  8/10 Had won over at least 2 ½ miles.
  8/10 Had not run in a Graded Chase so far. [Exceptions were 2nd and fell in a Grade 2]
  7/10 Finished top 4 in all completed chases.

Additionally
Only 1 horse that carried a penalty ran into a place.
Since the start, 6 and 7 year olds have won 9 from 139 runners, all other ages are 4 from 96.
Horses in first time head-gear have placed 5 times in the last 8 renewals.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
  5yo 1-2-17
  6yo 3-9-42
  7yo 4-8-75
  8yo 1-7-43
  9yo 1-4-18
10yo 0-0-3

Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Ferdy Murphy 2-0-4
Nicky Henderson 1-3-14
Philip Hobbs 1-1-10
Paul Nicholls 1-1-12
Rebecca Curtis 1-0-3
Nigel Twiston-Davies 0-2-6
Tom George 0-2-7
Willie Mullims (Ire) 0-1-2
Colin Tizzard 0-1-5
Charlie Longsdon 0-1-8
Jonjo O'Neill 0-1-8

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.0 stars
Zamdy Man 25/1 ***
Yet to win at the distance but couldn’t be in better form.
Last Goodbye 20/1 ****
78 days off is a negative in this and has been running on softer.
Double W’s 16/1 ****
Not won at the distance yet, place claims
Mixboy 20/1 ***
Up 13lbs for his last win, ensures he gets into the race, but off for 70 days.
Foxtail Hill 6/1f **
Bad at the trends as most runner don’t win Grade 3’s and still get in this, but this is a race where the shape of the trends are evolving and I can’t rule him out just yet.
Hammersley Lake 16/1 ****
A few minor negatives on the card, not ruled out wholly on those.
Captain Redbeard 20/1 *****
Nothing too sparkling about his profile, even if it is perfect.
Templehills 33/1 *****
Jumping errors in 3 of his 5 starts have put paid to those races. He’s won the other 2 (with mistakes) including beating Vibrato Valtat (ran in Tingle Creek) out of novice company. If he can put in a good round of jumping he has a chance.
Bun Doran 16/1 ****
Trainer Tom George’s record is poor and he may want some rain.
Killiney Court 25/1 ***
135 days off and more than 2 chase wins are negatives.
Its’afreebee 9/1 ****
First time headgear does do well in this race and he wears cheek-pieces here. Did well to get dropped to 139 after a poor run last time, not perfect but worth considering.
Powersbomb 25/1 *****
Passes the trends, but not a stellar chasing career so far. Oppose.
Tully East 16/1 ****
Flattering 2nd last time and isn’t my cup of tea.
Relentless Dreamer 25/1 *
Lots of negatives and probably want further.
Deans Road 25/1 ****
Off for nearly 6 months, surely there are fitter horses.
Gold Present 10/1 ***
Tough race 17 days ago, ground will suit.
Two Taffs 12/1 *****
Unsuitable trip/going last time to keep his mark at 139, Davy Russell on board. This maiden is interesting. Unproven at course.
Sizing Tennessee 20/1 **
Trying and failing at the distance. Too hot for him here, though first time blinkers on today.
All Hell Let Loose 22/1 ****
282 days off. That’s a long time.
Burtons Well 20/1 ****
Not run on ground this fast, but has a chance.

Conclusions

The last 2 winners were maidens and that is an interesting angle to look at in such a tight handicap. Horses with more than 2 chase wins don’t have a great record, perhaps they’ve hit their peak in the handicap and are passed by horses with greater scope who are growing into their career. TWO TAFFS (12/1, skybet) fits that description. He’s a safer proposition than Templehills (33/1). Burtons Well (20/1) and Its’afreebee (9/1) for the frame.