Twatter

Due to extreme times of busyness in my hectic schedule, I've decide to set up a twitter account to post tips within 146 characters via my iphone, I'll still talk shite on here, but at least I can relay my selections while on the road. They should all be up by noon if there are any.

I Am "TheValueHunter"

VH

Part Two

League One

The lower divisions has so much better value normally, especially when, as a Brentford supporter, you've kind of lived your life there. Maybe the odds-compilers are just lazy. Good, I like lazy, I'm one myself.

First of all, I've backed Brentford, Corals offered 14/1 for promotion, I can't turn that down, we've got more strikers than Arthur Scargill and i think we're better than the 9th we finished last season in a weaker division. Southampton should walk the division with Rickie Lambert banging in 25-30 goals. There is little else to say. On the handicaps Brentford probably offer the best value, but were tipped by the RP
so are now 10/1 (from 18/1) with Bet365. Coral's larger handicaps are a pain, but they aren't too far off in this division tbh and that is probably the best of the rest.

I've backed Yeovil, but wish I hadn't as they are unlikely to improve to much on last year, although they should be safe from promotion. The team that interests me is Walsall (+36, Bet365). I haven't backed them yet, they've lost some players in the summer but I still think Bet365 are wrong with it, I maybe wrong (heaven forbid) and will have to delve into their new signings brfore commiting more money to a 9 month portfolio.

League Two

This looks completely open with 3 favourites depending where you bet.
Morecambe are 20/1 (Stan James), they'll be disappointed with both their start to last season and their play-off performance, but in between they were one of the form sides and I expect them to be there or there abouts again. They are +14 with Betfred.


Torquay finished the season strongly but have now been pounced upon.... they are now 8/1 with Bet365 in the handicap market, I can't recommend them now. Burton Albion looked at home in theri debut season and in Sean Harrad they have a good young striker. I've backed both (obviously in handicap/top scorer markets, doh).


The best match bets I found to combine into multiples were at Ladbrokes nad Bet365

Ladbrokes
Brentford vs Rochdale
Carlisle vs Dagenham
Morecambe vs Bury
Torquay vs Lincoln

Bet365
Morecambe vs Bury
Walsall vs Rochdale
Southampton vs Sheff Wed

Working tomorrow so no tipping of winners for the Scoop6.

2010-11 Starts here

Is Paktalos still running, probably. I didn't see the race, so my TV is still in tact, very disappointing. So lets look forward to the new football season.

The Racing Post did their usual 72 page pullout on bets for the new season, not a bad write up, some of my bets were in there which is a bit shit.... I was very comforted that Mark Langdon, their best pundit, was on board, did you know he tipped Spain to win the World Cup.... well done Mark top tipping, very left-field tip, cheers. Surprisingly he didn't recommend Chelsea to win the Premiership, but went for Arsenal @ 7/1...   can't touch that one.

Premiership
As usual there is very little value in the outright market. Laying Man City at a ridiculous 7.0 is probably the best bet. There are some seriously deluded people out there. It could be a much tighter race this season and it may help the handicaps as I can't see the winner getting 90 points. 85 would be nearer the mark which puts a host of teams around +38 neading 47 pts to be in with a shout of wnning in the handicap market.

In the last 2 seasons. I've found the winner in Fulham and Birmingham.

The 3 teams I like this year are all underrated by the bookies. The best bet is Everton +24 (Coral, 15/1), +23 (Stan James, 14/1 and Ladbrokes 12/1) I've backed them with SJ as Corals handicaps are big, which means some other bugger has a big handicap behind them. Ladbrokes are the tightest, but SJ isn't too far behind on that. Everton had some bad injuries at the start of last season and they finished strongly. Assuming they improve on 61 pts, that puts them in the 85+ points range.

Stoke are hard to beat and +40 (Bet365, 15/1) or preferably +39 (Stan James, 18/1) is still pretty high, Blackburn are in the same boat, Sam Alladyce has made them hard to beat and they can improve from last years 50pts. They are +40 with Betfred @ 15/1.


Championship
I've already given Bristol City and Reading as my outsiders for the season. I'm still in love with Doncaster in the handicaps. They are just underrated by the bookies, although the RP has picked up on it this year. +26 with vcbet, +28 with Corals. Barnsley under Mark Robins were the form team just after he took over before falling away at the end of the season, They are also underrated at are worth a bet in the handicap, the RP has tipped them as well (great minds really DO think alike), +28 with Ladbrokes and +30 with Corals.

I rated Scunthorpe last year, but they look to have a stuggle on their hands after losing half of their team in the summer, they look doomed and I've taken relegation doubles alongside Dagenham & Redbridge and Rochdale, more about them later in part two.

Waffles for breakfast

Finally I get a nice relaxing morning and something to yak about. The World Cup is out of the way, what a pile of crap that was, football is on the whole.... SHIT.... overhyped by Sky, the BBC and the Sun.... I've been looking at some bets for the season and to be honest am struggling to find any value. I've backed Morecambe (20/1), Reading (14/1) and Bristol City (20/1) so far.  

Morecambe made such a sluggish start last season, no wins in the first 6 games or so, but still finished 4th. Unfortunately they got humped by Dagenham & Redbridge. Sammy McIlroy won't allow them to start slowly again and as long as the scars of that 6-0 thumping are healed, 20/1 is excellent value.

I've mainly backed Reading and Bristol City because of their managers. Brian McDermott took Reading from being relegation-threatened to playoff-chasing in half a season and the momentum of that should hold them in good stead. City have super Steve Coppell in charge and having snapped up David James, look to have the money behind to push for promotion. Coppell knows how to win the division and I expect the 20/1 to be shorter by the time the Racing Post pull-out arrives on wednesday. I've also backed those 2 for promotion at 4/1 and 6/1 respectively.

Horses now

I felt like I was in a bit better form in the last 2 weeks although Goodwood was tough for my type of betting, I'm just counting down the days to the proper racing starts, hopefully I have a bet today.

Chester 5.10
Paktolos (18/1, vcbet) is more of an all-weather horse, but ran well at York last weekend. In stall 2 here and is still a big price, I'm looking for a big run and expect a return on my money.

Back With A Bang

Hi there all,

Time to get back on the horse. A piss poor Aintree made up my mind to take May (and the rest of April) off. It's never a particularly profitable time for me, with the end of the jumps and the start of the flat/summer jumps. Good job too as you'd have lost a shitload. I'm still a bit hit and miss, but its Derby Day so I should take on a very open looking renewal at try and find the winner.

1.40 Vincent O'Brien Handicap.  

Arlequin (10/1) looks a good type for the opener. Won at York last month and although he's gone up 11lbs for that, there could be more to come. James Bethell has got his 3yo's firing after a tough winter and Phillip Robinson is in excellent form with 12 wins from 47 rides this season, top stuff by anyone's standards. I expect the 10/1 to disappear before the morning is out.

3.15 Investic Dash (Heritage Handicap)
Great race, lots of trouble in running and hopefully a big-priced winner. Moorhouse Lad (16/1, general) won at Musselburgh 5 weeks ago, this is tougher but this is a former Group 3 winner and can run well at a decent price, Brian Smart has an 18% strike-rate this season. I'm also sweet on Judge 'N' Jury (25/1, vcbet, Lad) who has been running under the radar recently after an excellent 2008 and some decent results last year. Phillip Robinson is on board this too.

4.00 Investec Derby

This doesn't look to be the greatest of renewals. It's probably best to stick to the horses at the top of the market as they have provided the winner over the last decade. Jan Vermeer (11/4f, William Hill), Midas Touch (7/1, Ladbrokes) and Bullet Train (15/2, Coral, Bet365, Skybet) look to have the credentials to be the winner but it looks a race to steer clear of to me. Of the bigger priced horses, Azmeel (12/1, general) looks to have improved as a 3yo and could make the frame. Ted Spread (33/1, general) improved LTO but would provide a massive shock if he won this. Rewilding would be a trendbreaker if he won this, but he looked pretty good on his UK debut and I wouldn't rule out. A horrible race this year and best to keep to fun stakes.

That's it I think, can't see much value in the last two races.


World Cup Bets

I've been looking at the Top Scorer markets for each team. The standout bet was Stanislav Sestak of Slovakia.  Slovakia are in Group F with Italy, Paraguay and New Zealand. Slovakia are no mugs and definitely have a chance of qualifying. But we don't care if they qualify or not, we just want our man to score the most goals for Slovakia. Sestak has 10 goals from 29 Caps. Not bad, but he scored almost half of their qualifying goals and ended the campaign with 6 goals in 6 games. and he was only on the field for 469 mins in those games.  He's 11/4 with sportingbet and Totesport.

The value bet is at Coral, where they are offering 28/1 on there being no scorer for Switzerland. Now Switzerland can easily fail to score in 3 games, they are pretty average. Spain and Chile should cause them all sorts of problems and their game against Honduras is the 3rd of the group where nil points and nil goals could already be on the cards. This is at altitude and Honduras are no mugs.

Mexico (13/8, bet365) should see off South Africa in the opening game and South Korea (21/10, bet365) can beat Greece the next day at a decent price. South Korea are my dark horses to qualify in Group B.

Aintree -Day Three

a totally shit day today.... Looks like we must avoid horses that did well at Cheltenham as its taken a lot out of them and Aintree is an afterthought for many.....  gonna bypass tomorrow as its an early start for me on GN day..

You have the trends for the National... so hopefully we'll have a result there..


good luck for tomorrow..
VH

Aintree - Day Two

Not the greatest day yesterday, got out of Jail with Sir Harry Ormesher winning the last and What A Friend coming in too, so we should have a little money for today.

2.00 - John Smith's Top Novices' Hurdle

This should all be about Menorah (6/4f) who won the Supreme Novice's Hurdle at Cheltenham. I won't put you off him but surprise winners at Cheltenham don't often follow up at Aintree. I saw Escort'Men (11/4)hack up at Kempton and there must be more to come from the Nicholls/Walsh combination. La Sarrazine (11/2) seems to be well regarded and has avoided the limelight so far. He may be come up a little short but until we see it we can't really tell, the 4/1-9/2 generally around is far too short. General Miller (12/1) decided to depart at the first fence of the Festival. There was money for him that day and the bookies aren't giving too much away today. Outsider Washington Irvine (25/1) could be the forgotten horse, he didn't run at Cheltenham but is similar to La Sarazine. The former Group 1 flat racer needs to prove he can hack it at the highest level, 25/1 is overpricing him though. I may be tempted.


2.35 - Mildmay Novices' Chase

Burton Port (5/2f) is up and coming, a worthy favourite with an excellent 2nd in the RSA Chase. Ogee (9/2) was pricewised last time and he just failed to beat Chief Dan George and The Package in the William Hill Trophy. Both of these should be up there. Not really anything each-wayable. Khachaturian (12/1) is  an honest enough front-runner, but is likely to set up the race for something else. I backed Door Boy (16/1) at Cheltenham, but he isn't suited to this imho.


3.10 - John Smith's Melling Chase

Forpadydeplaster (5/1) and Kalahari King  (4/1f) renew rivalries here. Pady has beaten him twice and should come on for his Cheltenham 2nd, yet KK is favourite... hmmmm. KK does like Aintree, but he was seriously under par at Cheltenham with ground that should have suited. It definitely does today, but I'd rather be with Pady. Throw in Albertas Run (15/2), Poquelin (6/1), Monet's Garden (8/1) and Deep Purple (9/1) and you probably have the best race at the the meeting. There is nothing else to say really. Schinfdler's Hunt  (16/1) was shite at Cheltenham but is a better horse than that day. Sit back and enjoy this race.


3.45 Topham Handicap Chase

Super, a 28 runner handicap to get my teeth into. With Scotsirish (20/1) being by far the best horse in the race, most of the field will be running from out of the handicap. I'm going to concentrate on the bottom 20 or so... just kidding. I'll start at the bottom and look to back 2-4 horses. Garleton, Oulart, Boomshakalaka, Pomme Tiepy, Commemoration Day and Gaora Lane are too far out of the handicap imho and I will leave them alone. Pak Jack (20/1) has had his moments in the past and has now got his ground. I certainly think he has a big run in him. Quilmar (22/1) is 6 but has plenty of experience, hasn't run on ground as fast as this, but if he goes on it is pretty interesting. Wee Robbie (20/1) has been running in some big races this season, this is more like his sort of race and I won't put you off. He runs better on Good-Soft but is ok on Good. Zacharova (100/1) doesn't do it in big fields, so should be ignored. Oodachee (16/1) was 2nd last year, he's now 11 and hasn't won any money this year, probably best watched.

You need experience of big fields and more than a little luck. A very hard race to pick the winner and I'm always a bottom of the handicap sort of guy, so apologies if something up the top comes along and wins but it shouldn't. I'm probably on Wee Robbie, Quilmar and Pak Jack.

4.20 - Sefton Novice's Hurdle

Right, lets get this out of the way first. I've followed Channinbar for about 6 months. The first time he placed at big odds, he then did bugger all at shorter odds, then he wins after I don't back him. I've then decided that he should be followed and he pulls-up. You out pal....   no more...... Channinbar hosed up at 20/1 yesterday.
I know I'm right, I just need to be right at the right time. So apologies if I channel all by pain into stupidly following Chimirey in this. He was 3rd at Cheltenham @ 33/1 and I was on, but it covered my other bets in the race. If he's come out of Cheltenham ok then he'll be up there. I'll give Western Leader (11/2) a thumbs up too, but i'm focussed on Chimirey here. Probably best to ignore my thoughts and back what you want. Chimirey WILL win a race at nice odds, let's hope its this one.

4.55 - John Smitrh's Handicap Hurdle

Whinestone Boy (14/1) was secretly fancied for the National and this is a poor consolation. I think the bookies have shortened him up because they're afraid. Its not often I big up a favourite, but Cross Kennon (9/1f) does look a good think at an ok price, he's not each way able so I will try and find some value. Clova Island is stepped up to 3 miles. He's been my friend this season. 14/1 is a fair price but nothing exceptional in that respect. Wow I think I've found a decent thing at 25/1. Not sure why Dancing Dik is 25/1. Form at the distance, form on the ground, not got the Class 1 form but how many do. A good 2nd at Newcastle LTO could be the springboard for a shock. Definitely a placepot pick with the other 2.

5.30 National Hunt Flat Race

 The 40/1 winner of the Cheltenham Bumper bashed up all the trends, none of those runners are here. I don't like short priced rookies. The bookies have all the form in the book and there is little value in them. Personally I think its a stay away race, especially if we have bookies money in the bank. A small cheeky bet on Lovey Dovey (22/1) may be preferred but I'm only saying it because I feel I have to say something. A win on Good ground is all we have to go on, but I'm happy to bet it to small stakes.

Selections:
2.00
Win: Menorah @ 13/8fav
E/W: Washington Irvine @ 25/1 (general)

2.35
Win: Burton Port @ 3/1fav (stan James)
E/W: Khachaturian @ 14/1 (Bet365, William Hill)

3.20
No Bet

3.45
E/W: Wee Robbie  @ 20/1 (Bet365)
E/W: Quilimar @ 20/1 (Bet365, PaddyPower - both 5 places)
E:W: Pak Jack @ 20/1 (general, but get 5 places)

4.20
Win: Western Leader @ 11/2fav
E/W: Chimirey @ 12/1 (general, Bet365 and Ladbrokes are 1/4 odds)

4.55
Win: Cross Kennon @ 9/1fav (general)
E/W: Dancing Dik @ 25/1 (bet365, Coral)
E/W: Clova Island @ 14/1 (Bet365, Sportingbet, Coral)

5.30
 E/W: Lovey Dovey @ 22/1 (Sportingbet, Coral)

Fingers crossed
VH

Aintree - Day One

The last good stuff of the year as far as I'm concerned. The Aintree Festival. Lots of value around normally as Cheltenham winners are horribly short for winning at the races they've been aimed for and some are put in here as an afterthought. There are some exceptions of course and the first is in the first race.

2.00 Liverpool Hurdle
Big Buck's will win off level weights, but at 1/3 he should do. World Hurdle runner-up Time For Rupert is a non-runner, so if there's any value to be had it's elsewhere. Tidal Bay flopped at Cheltenham, but has always preferred Aintree. He's 5/1 so you are getting your money back if he places, and that is of little interest to me. I've followed Bouggler (16/1) and I like him, but he looks one for next season. There are other winners around, but look best watched. If I have a bet it will be on Kayf Aramis (25/1) or (8/1 w/o Big Buck's). He's solid and runs on any ground and will be gunning for a place. Whether he's good enough to do that is a different matter but if I have a bet it will be on him.

2.35 4yo Novices' Hurdle
This looks a race for the favourites and escpecially horses that have run at Cheltenham with 9/10 winners running there and also finishing in the top 2 in either of their last 2 starts (8/10)

Sanctuaire (2/1f) was one of the few favourites to win at Cheltenham, although he was punted heavily on course to do so. He's a little short although a worthy favourite. He beat Notus De La Tour (17/2) by about 9 lengths that day. He's weighted to get closer today and will be up there. Barizan ran superbly for me/us the other week, nailed over the last but he kept plugging on anfter his tired error at the final fence. Now he's 6/1, he's not worth backing but I'll be cheering him on. Super Kenny (5/1) has been talked about for a while and won nicely on his belated debut last month. I can't find an each-way alternative so its not really a betting race for me.

3.10 Totesport Bowl
Imperial Commander (11/10) is the the horse of the day (unfair on Big Buck's perhaps), but the press and bookies are keen to get him beat. Calgary Bay (18/1) is Pricewise's tip. The horse that I would be interested in is What A Friend (100/30), who missed Cheltenham to win this. Nacarat (9/2) and Carruthers (14/1) have had hard front-running races recently and are targets for the others

3.45 Foxhunter's Chase
The top 3 in the market has provided 9/10 winners over the last decade. The biggest priced winner was 8/1 in that time.

Baby Run is looking for the Foxhunter double and I expect him to run really well, but 7/2 is no price in a 21 runner field. The horse that was 3rd that day @ 66/1 was Reach For The Top. I think that was a really good performance and he's still available at 18/1 today. I think that could be excellent value as Baby Run could be targetted by the others if he front runs.

4.20 Red Rum Handicap Chase
A really competative race with a number reopposing each other after a super Grand Annual race won by outsider Pigeron Island. He's happy to run as muh as possible so a 3 week break is no problem, however I have no idea how he won that day and It probably says a lot for the opposition. He's now 8/1 and can't be worth it at that price.
The Grand Annual provides a few winners of this and you won't find many big-priced winners either, so stick to the single figure prices. Consigliere (15/2fav) was unlucky in that race and I'd rather be with him but he's carrying a chunky weight. Safari Journey (8/1) is 8lbs better off today but is priced up accordingly. Nikola (16/1) isn't weighted that favourably but was out of the handicap last time. If he races a bit better this time he may be produced later as he blew up after a mistake 3 out. Chapoturgeon (9/1) has been done up like a kipper by the handicapper and he's still in his grip. He's a very good horse but it will take a fantastic performance carrying top weight here. I'd be suprised if anything else wins this, but if it does I'm not confident of finding it. Safari Journey is a tentative pick.

4.55 Manifesto Novices' Handicap Chase
The Nightingale (11/4) ran well at Kempton (beating Othermix) and missed Cheltenham. It will take a lot to beat Somersby (11/8f) though as he could have beaten an idling Sizing Europe in the Arkle with another 50 yards. Mad Max (11/2) is too short although he was travelling well (was 4th) in the same race before blundering badly coming round the back turn. He battled back well but isn't as good as the other two. Hey Big Spender (8/1) blundered at Cheltenham, while Othermix (22/1) was finishing 2nd, he's as honest as they come but must be outclassed here.

5.30 Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle
Ainama (5/1fav) disappointed at Cheltenham, he's better than that but is short enough for a horse who hasn't won for 7 races. A very competative handicap, I'm looking for something low down the handicap that didn't run at Cheltenham. Majaales  (16/1) won comfortably last weekend and I'm fairly keen on him although he should be better next season. Maraafeq (22/1) has won his last 2 races, but this is tougher as you would expect, I think he'll be up there.

Of those Cheltenham horses, Silverhand (11/1) could be considered unlucky after being hampered when he was about to get in the mix, but 11/1 isn't e/w for me so I will pass him over. Sir Harry Ormesher (18/1) was 7th in that race but was another doing his best towards the end, a better ride today could se him up and abouts. Pascha Bere (40/1) had it all to do last time. He's a better horse than that, and I want to see him a bit closer today. The horse I'm going to recommend is Pagan  Starprincess (28/1). She's veey consistent, runs on any ground and is on a decent weight here. First time headgear applied today. In a cometative race I think she could do us proud. Pascha Bere's price is too big at 40/1 but is much more speculative.

Selections (my win bets are @ 3/1 or more and each-way bets @ 12/1 or more in 7+ runner races
2.00
WIn: Big Buck's 1/3fav
breaking news only 7 runners so  no e/w bet on Kayf Aramis

2.35
No Bet

3.10
Win: What A Friend @ 100/30 (Bet365)

3.45
E/W: Reach For The Top @ 18/1 (Bet365, Stan James)
4 places available 16/1 (sportingbet) 1/5 odds and 14/1 PaddyPower, Skybet 1/4odds

4.20
Win: Safari Joutrney @ 8/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, VCBet, Bet365) small stakes advised

4.55
Win: Somersby @ 11/8fav

5.30
E/W: Pagan Starprincess @ 25/1 (general)
Other possible E/W: Sir Harry Ormesher @ 20/1 (sportingbet); Marafeeq @22/1 (spbet, SJ), Majaales @ 16/1 (general), Pascha Bere @ 40/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, VCBet, Bet365), South O'The Border @ 33/1 (gen)

Good Luck
VH

Grand National Trends - Class and all the others

34 was it?

Class
Right. Class is important. Party Politics (1992) was the last horse that hadn't won a race worth £17,000 to the winner.

Horses without the right class to win this are: King John's Castle, Abbeybraney, Flintoff, Oodachee, Officer De Reserve.

This leaves 29.

Big Race Performance
It has come to light from a fellow bettor that since 1989 (yes that bloody Little Polveir buggered up some nice trends that year)... where was I... yes...  Since 1989, every winner has done well in a big race. Where big race is a top 3 finish in one of the National Nationals...  Irish, Welsh or Scottish. A top 5 finish in the Henessey at Newbury, a top 2 finish over the big Aintree fences or had at least won 3 Chases over 3m (incl. 1 over 3m4+). I've had a look and its competely true, so it seems a good place to start.

Out:
Don't Push It, Cloudy Lane, Nozic, Ballyholland, Can't Buy Time, Beat The Boys, Preists Leap, Snowy Morning, Big Fella Thanks, Ellerslie George, Conna Castle, Ballyfitz, Arbor Supreme, Royal Rosa, Chief Dan George and Offshore Account

Great 16 gone, 13 remain and Ballytrim isn't going to run so a nice round 12 left.

Finally, the Racing Post records only go back 20 years, so the following 2 trends are at least good for the last 20 years. They are: every winner has run between 16-49 days ago and every winner has finished in the top3 at least once in its last 3 races, proving they are in some sort of form.

We can now get rid of the following:
State Of Play (133 days)
Irish Raptor (126 days)
Ollie Magern (form of 467)
Hello Bud (form U87)
My Will (form 757)

Hurray, we now have 7 horses that fit all the trends and I will go through any negatives they have

7 Comply Or Die (22/1, William Hill)
Winner in 2008 and Runner-up in 2009. Is borderline carrying 11-05 round Aintree and never one to show great form in the build-up to the race, but write him off at your peril. Timmy Murphy chose him over The Package today.

9 Niche Market (18/1, Bet365, Totesport, William Hill)
Can't find fault with him really. Ran a superb 3rd in this season's Henessey and was 2nd in the AON Chase in February. Only 9th at Cheltenham behind Chief Day George, The Package, Offshore Account and Ollie Magern, however he made a couple of mistakes while beaten. Will have to carry 11-04 round here and there may be one or two too good.

11 Dream Alliance (40/1, Bet365, Betfred, William Hill, Ladbrokes)
Another carrying a little too much than is ideal. Could be the fairytale winner of the National as his owners are from a working men's club in a small village in Wales and have signed up to a deal to make a film of the horse after he came back from terrible injuries to win the Welsh National at Christmas. Also ran a solid 2nd to Denman in the 2007 Henessey.

24 Character Building (20/1, Betfred, Sportingbet, coral, Ladbrokes)
The perfect horse at the perfect weight. Won The Kim Muir at Cheltenham in 2009, however his 2 runs this seson have hardly set the world alight. Was 12th In the William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham, even behind Niche Market. He was bought last week by the same people who bought Party Politics 3 days before his 1992 win.

26 Eric's Charm (50/1, general)
Being 12yo is a bit of a negative but at least he's in form, winning his last 2 races, including a Veteran's Handicap in March, beating Knowhere.

36 Mr Pointment (125/1, Sportingbet)
What can I say. A former Paul Nicholls Grand National Ante-Post Favourite in 2008. This horse has gone backwards ever since he was leading that race until fence 24 (pulled-up going backwards). Ran in the Gold Cup, but only 2 runs in the last 16 months has got to be a big negative. If he comes back to his form of 2007 then he may have a chance, but I would personally avoid him like the plague.

44 Knowhere (100/1, general)
Unlikely to get in and will be one of the reserves until Friday if he doesn't. Anoother 12yo who could get a place if he ran up to his best form.

There you have it, the 7 alleged winners of the Grand National, I will try and write up a couple of lines on all 40 runners if I have time.

Currently there are a number of bookies running to 5 places. They are Bet365, Boylesports, VCbet, Bluesq and Paddy Power. On the day the bookies may stretch to 6 places so it may be worth looking out for those at http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/grand-national, however the bookies that only pay 4 places may well have better prices so its a bit of a trade off.

The first day of the Aintree meeting starts tomorrow. If I fancy anything it will be up before noon.

Good Luck!!
VH

Grand National Trends - Stamina

46 horses remain... On monday we lost 10 horses at the 5-day declaration stage.

Notre Pere (too much weight), Deutchsland (age), Dooneys Gate (experience), Anothercoppercoast and Cossack Dancer (OR below 135) were already out.

Air Force One, Chelsea Harbour, Equus Maximus, Lennon and Razor Royale reduce the 'winners' to 41.

The last horse to have not previously won at 3 miles or more was Gay Trip in 1970. Every winner since has winning experience at 3 miles or more. Obviously this is a 4 1/2m race so stamina is very important.

Of the remaining 41 horses, Made In Taipan, Pablo Du Charmil, Maljimar, Cerium (5th last year), Faasel, Duers and Pak Jack have not won a race over 3 miles.

Both Ballyholland and Conna Castle have 3m Point To Point wins and stay in for now.

34 remain.

With all the rain around some of the horses I'd have backed on better ground can run and win (or lose) now its a bit wetter.

The only value bet I'm having is on Rimsky (2.45 Newbury). Rimsky's problem is he doesn't win very often. He hasn't won for over 2 years, but he's been slogging it out over these longer distances in all sorts of ground and looks a fair each way bet at 16/1 for a place.

First Day of the "Flat Season" *boo*

With just Aintree to come, the end of the season is nearly upon us, and then the boring Flat season starts. Having had a pretty poor week since saturday (thursdays ran poorly and I won't blame the ground this time), I'm thinking of keeping my powder dry until then. And when Aintree is out of the way, staying away some more. The old adage about the stock market was "Sell in May and go away, come back in September", well I won't go to those extremes, but May is usually a proper shit month with dodgy summer jumps horses out and the start of the flat season with horses you have no idea are fit or not. It may be a month for laying short-priced favourites, especially 2-3yos, but we'll see.

3.10 Lincoln Handicap
This is the Blue Riband event and heralds the start of  the new yawn.. sorry... dawn. Its a 1m handicap over Doncaster's straight mile. The 2.00 Spring Mile, for horses who couldn't get into this race, could have a huge bearing over the draw bias, so watch this race for clues.

The race was ran at Redcar (2006) and Newcastle (2007) while Doncaster was being redeveloped.

The 10 year trends are fairly strong clues to the winner.

Aged 4-6 (10/10)
Actually, being 4-5 yo is stronger as they have won 8/10, but we'll keep 6yo in for now.
Out: Advanced (7) and Collateral Damage (7).

Carrying 9st or less (9/10)
Weight is deinitely an issue with only 1 winner lumping more than 9st. Extraterrestrial's jockey carries a 7lb claim, so he is ok.
Out: Mia's Boy, Penitent (fav), Dubai's Touch, Vitznau, Smokey Oakey

A win over 1 mile (9/10)
Obviously if you haven't won over a mile, its gonna be hard to win this over a mile. The only hope you may have is if you are an unexposed horse upping trip. However we will remove those because we are nasty buggers. I will leave in those who have won at more than 1m but not 1m.
Out: Harrison George, Ishetoo, Prime Exhibit.
Albaqaa has won over 9f and 10f and Full Toss has wins between 9-11f.

Rule out exposed horses (8/10)
You want up and coming horses not those in the grip of the handicapper. Horses with 15 or fewer runs have won 8/10 renewals.
Out: Albaqaa (22), Lang Shining (18) Full Toss (23), Huzzah (24), Kaolak (19), Mister Hardy (33)

Horse with ticks in all the boxes
4/4 Mull Of Killough (11/1), Tiger Reigns (12/1), Viva Vettori (18/1) and Reve De Nuit (80/1)
Also
3/4 Extraterrestrial, Lang Shining, Huzzah, Kaolak, Mister Hardy, Prime Exhibit

The ground is soft, and of the 10 horses above,

Mull Of Killough (0) Never run on worse than Good ground.
Reve De Nuit (0) All 4 runs have been on the All Weather
Lang Shining (1/1) Won a 17 runner affair at Newbury in 2008. His only run on soft.
Tiger Reigns (2/2) Won both runs on soft however Michael Dods thinks this has come 2 weeks too soon.
Huzzah (0/3)
Kaolak (0/1)
Mister Hardy (1/4)
Viva Vettori (0/1) Great AW form, but unproven on soft. Only run was 3rd on debut @ 40/1
Prime Exhibit (0/2)

If you want to ignore the trends, Collateral Damage (16/1) has 5 wins and 3 places from 10 runs on soft.

If I'm going to go for one, it's going to be Viva Vettori, however I'd like to know what happens at 2pm and I'll be in the pub by then.

Dodgy tips up next..

Grand National Trends - Weight and Official Rating

"Weight stops trains" apparently, I don't necessarily agree.... however in the Grand National It is almost probably true. The best horses carry the most weight and are the classiest horses in the race, but they carry too much to win and having to lug between 12-22 lbs more than the horses at the bottom of the handicap over 4m4f is going to take its toll....

Red Rum won the race 3 times and was 2nd on the other 2 occasions. He's the ony horse since 1957 to carry more than 11st 5lbs and win the race. Only 1 horse (Hedgehunter, 11-01) has won carrying more than 11st since Corbiere (11-03) in 1983.

There is now more of a problem. Until recently the National didn't attract the quality of horses it does now, 100+ entries are the norm now. Previously there would be fewer entries and horses would get in at 10 stone and plenty would run from "out of the handicap" (ie rated to carry less than the minimum weight of 10 stone) (Bobbyjo, 1999 and Lord Gyllene, 1997 won this way). Now the bottom weight will carry about 10-07, 10-06 or so and the difference between top and bottom weights is around 5-6lbs closer. We now have to raise the weights that the winner could possibly carry by the same 5-6lbs. Thankfully this ties in well with the Official Rating this year.

The winners of the Grand National have all been within the OR of 135-153 since 1989 (bar 1). Now that is a fairly huge range but it rules out the good and crap horses. Royal Athlete won off 155, that was pretty amazing as he only carried 10-06, so he was rated 18lbs less than the top weight, Master Oats (OR 173). This years race has Madison Du Berlais (11-10, OR 158) and Notre Pere (11-10, OR 158) and 4 other horses carrying more than 11-05 and happily their OR is also 154+. Almost perfect. The 'crap' horses won't get in but we still need to get rid of them.

Out
Carrying more than 11-05 (OR of 154+) (6 horses)
Madison Du Berlais, Notre Pere, Mon Mome, Black Apalachi, Joe Lively, Vic Venturi

Official Rating less than 135 (10 horses)
King's Advocate, Anothercoppercoast, Merigo, Chiaro, According To John, Lorum Leader, Over The Creek, Cossack Dancer, Wee Robbie, Offaly

If Madison Du Berlais and Notre Pere both don't run, Mon Mome will become the new top weight and carry 11-10, and every horse will move up 3lbs in weight and we may have to revisit this.

Ideally you should still be looking at horses carrying 11st or less in the race but we don't want to rule out a possibly winner

46 horses remain. Next I think we'll try to knock out horses who haven't won over 3 miles. After all if you haven't won at 3 miles or more, how can you win at 4m4f.

Value bet

Ayr 2.10

Odds-on favourite Meridiam City looks nailed on for this, however he's too short at 4/9. Interesting each-way steal is Flaming Thistle, who has, on paper, had 2 disappointing runs. However he improved from his debut run with a decent 6th, last time and the good ground will suit him better. Flaming Thistle is available at 14/1 from bet365, hopefully you can get some too.

Grand National Trends - Age and Experience

The Grand National is just over 2 weeks away and now is the time to whittle the 75 (current) entries down to something more managable like 5. I'm sure this is written every year, but the GN is the most unique race in the world. Its a handicap run over the extremes of 4m4f and 30 pretty tough fences with a probable field of 40 runners. You need luck, skill and a horse with a good engine, but the same things seem to happen year by year. Today we are going to take out horses whose proflie hasn't won for a pretty long time.

List of entries:

Age
The Grand National has been run since 1840 and in this time the age of the winning horses has varied between 5 and 15. However 5yo aren't allowed to run any more and now that the race is hugely competative, no horse younger than 8 has won since 1940 when Bogskar triumphed. Sergeant Murphy (aged 13) won the race in 1923. Every winner in the last 69 years has been aged between 8-12.

In the last 10 years there have been 39 horses aged 6-7 & 13+ and none have placed, not one. Young horses haven't built up the required stamina to win this race, older horses have the stamina, but are on the downgrade and aren't fast enough to compete at the top end. In fact 12yo horses have a poor record as well, just 1 win and 1 place from 29 runners. Amberleigh House (12) won in 2004, but he was trained by Ginger McCain (Red Rum's trainer) and had a much better profile than many 12yo's. I will keep in 12yo but they should generally be opposed.

The best ages for a winner is 9 and 10, having won 11 of the last 14 races. This year we can scratch out a number of horses, including Cheltenham Gold Cup flop and former favourite, Tricky Trickster.

Out (9 horses)
6yo Galant Nuit
7yo Tricky Trickster, Deutschland, Piraya, The Package, Palypso De Creek, Belon Gale, Pomme Tiepy
13yo Silver Birch (2007 winner)

Experience
Horses that win the Grand National have to have experience of jumping fences. Obviously horses that are younger won't have that experience, if you think that Tricky Trickster has raced only 6 times over fences, you'll know what a strange over-hyped favourite he was for this race.

Miinnehoma (1994) won the Grand National on his 10th chase start. Even that is quite unusual, since then, the minimum amount has been 10, but for this case I will keep in the 9s just in case the horses run again in the next 2 weeks.

Out (4 horses)
Horses with less than 9 chase starts:
Backstage (8), Dooneys Gate (6), Whinestone Boy (6), Treacle (8). We've already lost Tricky Trickster (6), Deutchland (8), The Package (8), Galent Nuit (8) and Belon Gale (7), but this is double bubble if you like.

Horses with 9 chase starts:
Ballyfitz, Equus Maximus, Abbeybraney, Offaly.
These can be considered for removal and hopefully we'll find other trends to remove them later.

There is no upper limit to the amount of races a horse has, although they'll generally be older and more exposed and probably in the handicapper's grip. Monty's Pass (41) and Amberleigh House (34) have to most in the last 20 years.

62 horses left, next time, we'll address the weight trend.

Sweating out a hangover

No bets today....


Stuck at work with a couple of placepots as my only source of entertainment, anyone got a cure for too much Guinness and Champers.

Cheltenham Aftermath

I hope you had a good day yesterday with Barazan (14/1, 2nd) and Bertie's Dream winning @ 33/1. Carruthers got done on the line by Mon Mome , so we only got 1 bet in (instead of all 3).

I hope you can forgive the spelling mistakes as I had to put out the blog asap  Had a look tomorrow and can fancy L'Aventure @ 25/1 to win the Midands National. I believe I backed Russian Trigger to win last years. L'Aventure is a pain in the arse, but I know she can win, whether it's this race is debatable. Her price is too big, but that's not a guarantee..

I'd rather keep my powder dry , but value is value...

Cheltenham Day Four

Cheltenham Day Four

The final day and an ok day yeterday, Alberta's Run winning @ 14/1 (was 20/1) and a placed horse in every race.

Managesd to have a computer crash this morning so am well behind. Am just going to put up the best trends horses and my selections.

1.30  JCB Triumph Hurdle

Trends:

10/10 Last run between 19-55 days

10-10 Between 2-6 run

  9/10 Won LTO

  9/10 Won at least half of hurdle runs

  9/10 By a Group 1 flat winning sire

  8/10 RPR of at least 123

6/6 Advisor, (13/2) Alavain (9/2), Carlito Brigante (4/1f)

5/6 Olofi (12/1) , Pitoni (16/1), Soldatino (11/2), Blue Nymph (66/1)

Pricewise has tipped Olofi (20/1 into 12/1) I still want to be with him but he offers no value. Think he will steam into about 9/1. A case can easily be made for all three of the trend horses and I think they will all be up there. I'm going to back a huge priced horse to break them up. Its Barizan (28/1). He's got good form at this level, at Cheltenham and is good on all ground.

Selections:

E/W: Barizan @ 28/1 (general)

2.05 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

Trends:

9/10 4-16 Hurdle runs

9/10 OR of 128-144

9/10 Carrying less than 11-02

9-10 Ran less than 36 days ago

9/10 Not run at a previous festival

9/10 SP shorter than 20/1

Also: 17/30 placed horses were 25/1 or bigger

Unfortunatly these trends took too much time to do, so I've skipped them. You should avoid the top 4 on the racecard as they are carrying too much weight. The Racing Post say that Bellvano (10/1), Tawaagg (12/1), Eradicate (12/1), Tito Bustillo and Inventor (25/1) have strong trends, with Tito Bustillo (9/1fav) their call.

I've followed Oldrik for the last 2 runs where he was 5th (placed with bet365) and 2nd. He doesn't win too much now and is 11/1 so not an e/w price for me. Very competative market, 7 horses 12/1 or shorter, big e/w selections aplenty. Marodima (50/1) carries too much weight but really shouldn't be the price he is. I'd hope for a place, but can't guarantee a good run. Pasha Bere (50/1) carries no weight and is ultra-consistent, is another big price and Keki Buku (40/1) is a much better horse than this price, but has disappointed at Cheltenham in his 3 runs. Basically there may well be a big priced winner here but bets should be at the minimum.

Selections:

Win:  Oldrik @ 11/1 (bet365) [e/w if 12/1+]

E/W:  Keki Buku @ 40/1

E/W: Pasha Bere  @ 50/1

Poss E/W: Marodima @ 50/1 (general)

2.40  Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

(registered as The Spa Novices' Hurdle)

Trends:

5/5 RPR of 139 or more

5/5 2m5f+ win

5/5 At least 3 run over hurdles

5/5 Was in the top 2 LTO in a Graded Hurdle

4/5 Aged 6-7

Only 5 runnings of this, so trents not too strong, but a few have 5/5

Enterprise Park (9/1), Restless Harry (17/2), Shinrock Paddy (9/1), Tell Massini (9/2fav), Wayward Prince (66/1), Premier Victory (28/1)

A good race here, I've fancied Restless Harry for this for ages but Tell Massini and Fionnegas are big dangers. Cappa Bleu won the Foxhunter's last year, but hasn't shown the same form this year. One horse I'm amazed is as big as 50/1 is Berties Dream. I think he's done nothing much wrong to deserve such a big price, you never know. Another in decent form is Silver Kate who definitely gets the trip. Quel Esprit fell on wednesday and is obviously fine after that, but I though his real chance was then and not now.

Selections:

Win: Restless Harry @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes, Bet365, VCbet)

E/W: Silver Kate @ 20/1 (general)

E/W: Berties Dream @ 50/1 (Ladbrokes, Bet365, VCbet)

3.20 Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase

Sod the trends, if you are interested, Kauto Star, Denman, Cooldine and Tricky Trickster are the best.

Kauto Star should win, I did think that Carruthers (66/1) is a big price but you're only aiming at 1 place at best, and he should be swamped by others coming round the bend. However he's 12/1 to win in the w/o big 2 market, and 33/1 w/o Kauto Star. This is a better e/w sleection

WIn: Kauto Star @ 8/11f

E/W w/o Big 2: Carruthers @ 14/1 (Sportingbet)

E/W w/o Kauto Star; Carruthers @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.00  Christie's Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup

Trends:

10/10 Won at 3m or more

  9/10 RPR of 128 or more

  9/10 Last run within 12-33 days

  8/10 Aged 10 or less

5/5 Southwestern (33/1), Turthen (16/1) and Chestnut Annie (28/1)

4/5 Amicelli (33/1), Roulez Cool (4/1fav)

Roulez Cool (4/1fav) is probably a worth favourite, he's to short to back but should be in your placepots. I really fancy Chestnut Annie (28/1) in this, she could spring a surprise at a huge price. Robber's Glen (25/1), Turthen (16/1) and Trust Fund (8/1) are others to consider

Selections:

E/W: Chestnut Annie @ 28/1 (bet365)

E/W: Robber's Glenn @ 25/1 (Bluesq, Sportingbet)

E/W: Turthen @ 16/1 (general)

4.40  Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey's Handicap Hurdle

The first race was last year, so no trends. I saw Clova Island  win at Kempton last month and am happy that he can carry that form into this race. Fairyland is Pricewised today and is a shame as he was backable at that price, now I'm not so sure. Not value, but still an each way price. Balthazar King has decent statsin all the right areas. How dodgepot Ashkazar is favourite is beyond me, gone backwards in the last 2 seasons.

Selections: (back them all with bet365, giving 5 places, best prices and guaranteed prices)

E/W: Clove Island @ 16/1

E/W: Fairyland @ 16/1

E/W: Balthazar King @ 20/1

5.15  Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup Handicap

Trends:

9/10 OR between 130-143

9/10 Maximum of 12 chase runs

9/10 Carrying less than 10-12

9/10 No older than 9

8/10 No more than 4 runs since August

Also the winner is usually less than 9/1 SP, but as we have 10/1 co-favourites at the moment, that is up in the air, might be worth looking for horses than are being backed.

5/5 You're The Top (8/1fav), Fighting Chance (12/1), Safari Journey (16/1)

4/5 Nomechecki (25/1), Pepsyrock (20/1), Tramantano (66/1), Beggar's Cap (16/1), Nikola (40/1)

Need to pick a lower weight. Hard to see Free World winning as he can't even win in small fields, unless he needs lots of horses around him. You're The Top looks a wortyh favourite. I really can't find a decent bet here, and am happy to pass over the get out stakes.

Selections:

No bet (officially)

That's it, the end of a great meeting for me, and the bookies but not for those favourite backers and Racing Post readers..... good, remember the only way to beat the bookies is to back when the odds are in your favour.

all the best

VH

Cheltenham Day Three

Cheltenham Day Three

Big Buck's above,he may lose. Dunguib and Master Minded were previous incumbents of the poisoned chalice. Personally I don't think he can, whereas the others were too short.

Not a great day for the blog yesterday. 1 winner. I had a good day as I was backing lots of other stuff. I try to only put the best bets up here rather than back the 3-4 horses e/w that I actually do. This isn't working. Cue Card won for me yesterday, a 4yo busted the bumper trend and it was not Irish either. I had the exacta up with Al Ferof, paid almost double the CSF @ £619.50 (compared to £334). I always find the CSF only pays better if the favourite is in the frame (esp the the winner) but the exacta pays hugely if outsiders are involved. Anyway onwards and upwards.

1.30  Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase

Trends:
Only 5 runnings here so trends are there to be broken.

5/5 OR of 123-135 (4 were 133-135)

5/5 Carrying less than 10-13

5/5 Top 2 LTO

5/5 Top 4 in all completed jump starts

5/5 Only 1 win over jumps (!!)

4/5 Won over 2m4f or further

This is a problem race, firstly the field is skewed so that only 2 horses are rated at 135 or less and both of these are carrying less than 10-13. So basically this looks pretty competative and its almost worth ignoring.

Kings Forest (20/1) (bottom weight) has all 6, but we need to delve a bit further.

Tanks For That (25/1) (2nd botom weight) has 5/6.

Nicanor and The Midnight Club has 4/6 and this is more like it. but both aren't market leaders. Copper Bleu would have 4 if you want to count his PTP win at 2m4f+. The rest are 2s and 3s. Rivaliste (7/1fav) has only 2 which is probably not good.

Of the maret principles, Hey Big Spender (10/1) could be the one to follow here. Although pretty high in the weights, he had good Cheltenham form and has won twice at this distance. A longer price could be The Midnight Club (22/1) who could fight it out for a place in this competative event.  One leftfield selection that I'll probably will back is Door Boy @ 33/1 who could run a big race.

Win: Hey Big Spender @ 10/1 (general)

E/W: The Midnight Club @ 22/1 (Stan James), Door Boy @ 33/1 (Stan James)

2.05  Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle

Trends:

10/10 Aged 6  to 9

9/10 Class 3 win or higher

9/10 Last raced between 20-42 days.

9/10 Carrying less than 11-03

8/10 A win at 2m4f-2m6f

8/10 Between 6-15 hurdle runs

Looking to avoid those top weights, distance wins at a good class is imperative as is hurdling experience. Not worried about the Days Since Raced as that could be more luck than judgement.

5/6 South O' The Border (40/1), Chamirey (33/1), Cross Kennon (25/1), Silk Affair (33/1), Special Occasion (100/1)

Also Alfie Sherrin (7/2fav) and Fredo (20/1) (both won at 2m7f) and Palypso De Creek (33/1) (decent win in France) can also be included. However Alfie Sherrin looks too inexperienced for this and Fredo is exposed.

As you can see from the prices, the trends analysis point to a big priced winner.

Looking for a big price here, plumping for Palypso De Creek. I'll also be hving a closer look at Don't Push It who's price it too also big for this. He had a touch of class about him when he feels like it. Chamirey is unproven on the ground and might be worth looking at for market moves.

E/W Palypso De Creek @ 33/1 (Lad, Bet365, VCbet, Spodds); Don't Push It @ 28/1 (Lad, Bet365, VCbet, Spodds) ; Chamirey @ 33/1 (Lad, VCbet, Bet365)

2.40  Ryanair Chase

(Registered as the Festival Trophy Chase)

Trends:

Another new race with only 5 years of trends. They are very very strong though and I expect the winner to be one of them.

5/5  RPR of 158+. Every horse passes this one

5/5 OR of 152+ . Again, every horse passes.

5/5 Has won at Cheltenham

5/5 Won or placed in a PaddyPower Gold Cup (in Nov) or a Boylesports Gold Cup (in Dec)

5/5 From the top 3 in the betting

5/5 4 or fewer runs since October. All pass this stat.

The only horses in the field that have placed in either of the Gold Cups are also the top 3 in the betting, Poquelin 7/2fav, Tranquil Sea (9/2) and Barbers Shop (6/1). Barbers Shop hasn't won at Cheltenham, so that leaves the other two.

Win: Poquelin  @ 3/1 (general); Barber's Shop @ 6/1 (general)

As an afterthought, I'm backing Alberta's Run @ 16/1

3.20  Ladbrokes World Hurdle

Trends:

10/10 Top 2 LTO

10/10 No more than 4 runs since August

  9/10 Aged 6-8

  9/10 In the Top 2 in all hurdles this season

  9/10 8-20 hurdle runs

  9/10 Won a Graded hurdle

  8/10 Pre-race RPR of 164+

7/7 Big Buck's 8/11fav

6/7 Tidal Bay (15/2), Karabak (9/1)

Not difficult that the top3 in the betting are strongest in the trends

E/W: Time For Rupert @ 20/1 is the value, but I'd probably watch it.

4.00  Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase

Trends:

10/10 Won a Class 3 or better

  9/10 Won over 2m3f-2m5f

  9/10 Raced within 41 days

  9/10 Was Top 5 LTO

  9/10 Raced over fences between 4-15 times

  8/10 Carrying 11st or less

  8/10 Aged younger than 10

  8/10 Raced at a previous Cheltenham Festival

Horse with all 8 trends are

8/8 Sunnyhill Boy (10/1) and My Petra (20/1)

7/7 Song Of Songs (9/1), Made In Taipan (33/1),  Martys Mission (33/1), Great Endeavour (25/1), Victorias Groom (50/1)

Song Of Songs hasn't won at the required distance which is a huge worry. Made In Taipan is carrying too much weight and Martys Misson hasn't got festival experience.

I need value in this and I'm not having any win bets. Short and sweet, but I'm going for my perennial favourite Private Be.... Hew doesn't win much but he's in the form of his life and is too big a price. Other horses of interest are Victorias Groom and From  Dawn To Dusk. Purely form a trends perspective My Petra  could do the business, but I have doubts.

E;:W Private Be @ 25/1 (general), Victorias Groom @ 33/1 (general), From Dawn To Dusk @ 25/1 (general)

4.40  Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup

Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)

Trends: 

10/10 Rated within 8lbs of the RPR Top-rated

10/10 Aged 7-10

  9/10 3m+ run LTO

  9/10 A Handicap Chase win

  8/10 OR less than 129

  8/10 Carrying 11-00 or less

  8/10 Top 3 in either of the last 2 races

  8/10 3m+ win

The OR and weight stat, rules out all bar Ma Yahab (fails the wieght) and Burren Legend. So we can basically ignore that stat for this renewal.

6/8 Shillingstone (8/1), Ballabriggs (7/1fav) and Ma Yahab (25/1),

5/8 Nostringsattached (12/1),  Khachaturian (16/1), Boychuk (20/1), I'moncloudnine (16/1)

You really still want a horse with a lower weight, which should count out Ballabriggs, however I'm not going to make that decision here. I really like Gallent Nuit as my idea of the winner. The ground should be ok with a bit of rain over night. Of the longer priced ones, Ma Yahab (low weight) is interesting and good value. I'moncloudnine has something about him but hasn't race in this Class before.

Win: Gallent Nuit @ 9/1 (Lad, Coral, VCbet, Bet365)

E/W Ma Yahab @ 25/1 (general); I'moncloudnine @ 20/1 (sportingbet, 16/1 bet365 5places)

Have fun :-)

Cheltenham Day Two

Cheltenham Day Two

Well, I'm more than happy with my first day at Cheltenham, a bigwinner in the first set me up for the day and later on the week. A morning punt on A New Story @ 33/1 came good. Pricewise managed a great day and followers of the 2nd best Value Hunter are quids in. Right, after a day on the lash, I'm writing this with a clear head (thank you egg and bacon sandwich and sugary cuppa). Thankfull the first 2 days were already on the laptop. The next two aren't so a bit of graft tonight and the next 2 days will be in order.

1.30   140th Year Of The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase)

A great start to the card, and plenty of chances here. Of the favourites, none are particularly opposable, I don't think Mobaasher or Pettifour are going to last the distance but they both are good horses on good ground whereas other aren't proven on it.

The others all have their reasons to be backed. I'd rather be with Massasoit (10/1), but there must be some value floating around.

Youngstown fits the trends nicely and I do expect a big run from him. He's certainly overpriced @ 50/1 (vcbet).

Trends:
9/10 3 or more runs over fences
9/10 Finished 1st or 2nd in a 3m+ chase
9/10 Top 4 finish LTO (exception unplaced in a C1 H'cap)
9/10 Aged 6-8
8/10 1st or 2nd on any of last 2 starts
7/10 Won a chase/hurdle over 3m+

Not a great trends race, but Synchronised (non-runner), Fabalu (16/1), Massasoit (10/1), Mobaasher (10/1), Poker De Sivola (18/1) and Youngstown (50/1) are all 6/6. Those with 5/6 are Abbeybraney (9/1), Pettifour (12/1), Presenting Forever (16/1), Pennek (33/1), Cast Cada (40/1), Gentle Ranger (40/1) and Noarad De Verzee (40/1).

Selections:
Win: Massasoit @ 10/1
E/W: Youngstown @ 50/1 (vcbet)


2.05   Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (registered as The Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle)

Trends:
10/10 Aged 5 or 6
  9/10 Pre-race RPR of 142+
  9/10 Finished 1st or 2nd in all completed starts over hurdles
  9/10 Won at least half of all hurdle runs
  9/10 Had won over 2m4+
  8/10 Rated within 11lbs of the RPR top-rated

Good trends race and the three that stand out are:
6/6 Quel Esprit (7/2 fav), Rite Of Passage (4/1), Peddlers Cross (6/1)
5/6 Ghizao (20/1), Summit Meeting (12/1)

Looks to be one of the market leaders, very little form on good ground to go on, I think Quel Esprit is a good think but is far too short. I don't think Rite Of Passage has done anything exceptional and will be against him today. Peddlers Cross's wins are all on softer ground and he'd be an unknown quantity on the good ground. Reve De Sivola is one I'd want to be on the side of, 11/1 is fair enough, but I think I want it each way. Finian's Rainbow is too short at 6/1, but has a chance. The e/w selection could come in the shape of The Knoxs (33/1), plenty of scope for improvement and he's 2 wins have come on Soft and Good-Firm.

Selections:
Win: Peddler's Cross @ 7/1 (VCbet, Bet365, William HIll)
E/W: The Knoxs @ 33/1, Reve De Sivola (if 12/1 or bigger)

2.40 RSA Chase

Trends:
10/10 Didn't race on the flat
10/10 1st or 2nd LTO
10/10 Last run 24-53 days ago
10/10 RPR of 141+
10/10 At least 3 runs over fences
  9/10 Rated within 14lbs of the RPR Top-rated
  9/10 Between 9 and 12 chase/hurdle runs

Most of the are pretty good with the trends, so it will be tough just using the trends..
5/6  Burton Port, (12/1) Diamond Harry (13/2), Little Josh (66/1), Punchestowns (5/2jfav), Weapon's Amnesty  (9/1), Long Run (5/2jfav)

Should be between Long Run and Punchestowns. However I'm backing Diamond Harry as he seems to be the forgotton horse and is 13/2.

Selections:
Win: Diamond Harry @ 13/2 (generl) and if Long Run goes 3/1 I'll probably back him too.

3.20  Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase

Trends:
10/10 Won over 2m 1f 110y+
  9/10 At least 8 chase runs
  9/10 Rated within 10lbs of the RPR Top-rated
  9/10 Course winner
  9/10 No Older than 9yo
  8/10 Pre-race RPR of 167+
  8/10 Won Graded Chase LTO

6/7 Master Minded (10/11fav)
5/7 Big Zeb (11/1), Golden Silver (66/1), Twist Magic (15/2)

I'm going against Master Minded with Kalahari King as he's a super horse on the good ground, and this will be a tough race for MM. Twist Magic doesn't like Cheltenham and must be ignored.

Selections:
Win: Kalahari King @ 9/2 (general)


4.00 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle

Trends:
10/10 Won over hurdles between 2m2f and 2m6f
  9/10 Top 6 finish LTO
  9/10 Won in Class 3 or better
  8/10 Carried no more than 11st
  8/10 Aged 6/7
  8/10 No more than 16 runs over hurdles
  8/10 No run for at least 39 days
  8/10 Won a race that season

8/8 Gold Award (33/1)
7/8 Hampshire Express (20/1), Sir Harry Ormesher (14/1), Lake Legend (20/1)


Gold Award is Pricewised I think, it's still 33/1 and is good value. I wanted to back Deutschland each-way, but he's been backed all week and isn't huge value but must go close. I was against Quantitativeeasing when he was beaten last time and I'm against him today.

Selections:
Win: Deutschland @ 9/1 (Bet365, betfred, vcbet, William Hill)
E/W: Gold Award @ 33/1 (Lad, WH, VC, Bet365);

4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle

Trends:
Only 5 runnings of this, and a couple of them are a bit shaky as well
5/5 OR of 124-133
5/5 Didn't win their first 2 hurdle starts (?!?!)
5/5 By a Sire who won a Group 1 on the flat
5/5 RPR of 112+ (that every horse by miles)
5/5 Won LTO, exception beaten in Grade 2 hurdle

5/5 Fin Vin De Leu (28/1), Bothy (14/1), Sanctuaire (13/2jfav), Ned Of The Hill (40/1), Hunterview (17/2)

Nasty handicap. Small Stakes Advised. No write up as I'm running late.

Selections:
E/W: Bocamix @ 50/1 (bet365 and 5 places too)
E/W: Fin Vin De LEu @ 28/1 (bet365)

5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race)

Trends:
10/10 Won a Bumper with 14 or more runners
10/10 Aged 5 or 6
  9/10 Irish-bred
  8/10 Pre-race RPR of 121+
  8/10 Won a Bumper worth £4,000+

Just 4 with all 5 stats.
5/5 Bubbly Bruce (66/1), Dare Me (25/1), Shannon Spirit (25/1), Tavern Times (10/1).
Al Ferof (10/1) and Carpincho (66/1) are the only otheres to have the 10/10 stat regarding a win in a big field. Al Ferof isn't Irish-bred, and Carpincho looks outclassed.

Selections:
Win: Al Ferof @ 10/1 (general)
E/W: Dare Me @ 25/1 ( bet365, 4 places)

Thats it today, took a while, hoping to be a bit earlier tomorrow, well It'll have to be as I'm at work by noon.

Good Luck

Cheltenham Day One

1.30Spinal Research Supreme Novices' Hurdle
4yo+, 2m 110y, Class 1 (Grade 1)


A match-up on paper between the superstar in the making, Dunguib and Get Me Out Of Here. If you were looking for me to unravel a 33/1 shot to take them on, then you will have to wait for another race. The only thing that could go against them is the ground. It is currently Good/Soft (Good in places), but drying out. Dunguib's only defeat was on better ground (in his only run). Get Me Out Of Here has won on his only try. If, and it's a big IF, something is going to beat them, then Menorah (12/1) is good enough can handle drying ground.

Trends:
10/10 Won on at least 50% of Hurdle starts
9/10 Pre-race RPR of at least 132
9/10 Raced within the last 45 days
9/10 Won last race
8/10 Rated within 8lbs of RPR Top Rated
7/10 Contested a Graded race

Also:
11/20 Were won by Irish-trained horses
The last winner with just 1 run was 1992

Only 2 horses have ticks in all the boxes, Dunguib (evsfav) and Get Me Out Of Here (5/1) and the market suggests it's a two-horse race too.

Selections
Win: Dunguib (evs, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Sportingbet)
Win (w/o Dunguib) Get Me Out Of Here (9/4, Stan James, Bet365, Sportingodds, Bluesq)
Each-Way: Menorah (12/1, totesport, Stan James, Sportingbet, VCbet)



2.05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
5yo+, 2m, Class 1 (Grade 1)

A good looking renewal of the Arkle, it's best sticking to the favourites in the market. The one nagging doubt I have with Captain Cee Bee, is his jumping. He fell in his penultimate start and the only reason he's favourite ahead of Sizing Europe was because “he would have beaten him”. I'm not so sure and Sizing Europe looks better value of the two. The Arkle usually goes to an up and coming youngster, but this year is different as we have plenty of older Champion Hurdle types trying their luck over the fences this season. A week ago, I was tempted to back Sports Line at a nice each-way price, but he's come in for tons of support since then and is only 8/1 and his best runs have been on softer. I really want to tip up Osana, but he hasn't done enough for me this season, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him run into a place though...... Argggh.... Sizing Europe, that's it done. No going back. But Sports Line is the weeks steamer..... oohhh

Selections:
Win: Sizing Europe (11/2, PaddyPower, Coral, SportingBet)
Win: Sports Line (if he drifts to 10/1+)

Trends:
10/10 SP not bigger than 11/1.
9/10 Aged 5-7
9/10 Finished in top 2 in all completed Chases (10/10 top 3)
9/10 Rated within 12lbs of the RPR Top-Rated
9/10 Pre-race RPR of at least 144
9/10 A Best RPR Hurdle rating of at least 143
8/10 3-5 runs over fences
8/10 Won a Novice Chase over 2m-2m1f

The Arkle is race for young Novice Chasers over 2 miles. This year we have a some very good older ex-hurdlers in here which may distort the age stat. However the horses that fit the most trends are: Captain Cee Bee (3/1fav), Sizing Europe (11/2), Riverside Theatre (8/1) all having 7/8. Those with 6/8 are Osana (16/1) and Somersby (4/1). Sports Line (8/1) won an Irish Chase (not Novice) and could also be included with (6/8).


2.40 William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase
5yo+, 3m 1f, Class 1 (Grade 3)

A definite trends race. Therefore we can ignore everything but The Package. That's true, but I've already given you none of that value that I crave. This time yesterday, Ogee was 20/1. Someone's must have been reading by notes, as he's now 11/1 and would have been my bet. One horse that is nicely weighted for this and almost fits the trends is Nenuphar Collonges and I think he's a bit of value here. Last of all, New Alco: not run for 2 years, if it wins, I did mention it.

Selections:
Win: The Package @ 13/2,
Win: Ogee @ 11/1 (William Hill, PaddyPower, Sportingbet) or e/w @ 12/1+
E/W: Nenuphar Collonges @ 22/1 (Vcbet, Ladbrokes, Stan James)

Trends:
10/10 Aged 7-10
10/10 Carried less than 10-13
10/10 OR of 127-143.
9/10 Won over 3m or more
9/10 Finished in top 3 in last 2 starts
8/10 SP between 5/1 and 8/1
8/10 No more than 11 chases
8/10 Ran no more than 4 times in the season

The Package (13/2) hits all the right notes.
Those with 7/8 are Bensalem (11/2fav), Theatrical Moment (12/1), Ogee (11/1) and Chief Dan George (33/1).


3.20 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle
4yo+, 2m 110y, Class 1

The handicaps are easy compared to these quality races. I could give you 5 and still miss the winner Khyber Kim. KK has done very little over the years and then bang, 2 big wins this season and he's still not favourite. Go Native, Solwhit, Zaynar and Medermit might have something to say about that and we haven't even mentioned the 1st/2nd/3rd from last year, it really wouldn't surprise me to see 6 jumping the last in a line...Right enough blathering, save that for the Morning Line/Racing Post. Lets find the winner. Solwhit's negatives are 1) being scoped twice in the last week. 2) Hasn't run at Cheltenham, 3) Likes soft ground. Lets get rid of all the rubbish. The main worry is the scoping as that's bound to put off any horse this close before a race. Facts are Solwhit has good form on the good ground and not having run at Cheltenham isn't a disadvantage until you know you can't run there. Khyber Kim is the one who's form on softer is exceptional and might find it all a bit quick.
{Stop waffling, Editor}

Go Native is now too short, I'm afraid. The market is all over the place, so make sure you get guaranteed prices with the bookies (most do online, and Paddys do in their shops). Bet365 are also matching the best price on every horse until sunday, as well as GP and their 4/1+ C$ offer, where they will match your stake on the next TV race if you have a 4/1+ winner). {Waffling, Ed}

I really don't want you to be put off anything in this so I'm actually going to say no bet, well no win selection. Hand on heart, I will probably have a bit on Solwhit @ 13/2+, but that may change tomorrow.

Selection:
no bet {What!! after all that, Ed}

Trends:
10/10 Ran within last 51 days
9/10 Aged 6-9
9/10 10-25 runs over hurdles
9/10 Won a Grade 1 Hurdle or Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle
9/10 Pre-race RPR of at least 156
8/10 Previous festival winner
8/10 Top Speed figure of at least 152
8/10 Rated within 7lbs of the RPR Top-rated
8/10 Won LTO

Also
Only 1 winner (Hardy Eustace) had unplaced form in his season's figures.
Only 3 winners in the last 30 years hadn't run since the turn of the year.

Go Native (9/2fav) is the only horse that hits all 9 trends.
Those with 8/9 are , Solwhit (13/2), Khyber Kim (8/1) and Celestial Halo (9/1)
7/9 are Punjabi (15/2), Medermit (9/1), and Zaynar (10/1)



4.00 Glenfarclas Handicap Cross Country Chase
5yo+, 3m 7f, Class 2

The Irish benefit race, where Enda Bolger trains the first 3 home. Probably.... Let's not beat around the bush, Garde Champetre and L'ami should be battling it out at the end with Sizing Australia 3rd. Lets try and find the each way. Monkerhostin is interesting now that he's won again this year. The 16/1 is very tempting. A horse I backed last time was Tawnies (and got the forecast up). It's 66/1 here. That was over 2m2f which was too short for him. This is probably a bit too far, but keep a lookout for him in other races.

Selections:
Win: Garde Champetre @ 9/4 (Sportingbet)
E/W: Monkerhostin @ 16/1 (Skybet, Ladbrokes)

Trends:
Only in existence for 5 years, however what can be gather from such a small sample is
5/5 Winners were trained in Ireland (4 by Enda Bolger)
5/5 Won at least 1 of their last 2 outings
5/5 Won a Cross Country race either at Cheltenham or Punchestown
5/5 Won over 3 miles or more
5/5 OR of 126-129 and no more than 10-13 or were Top-Weight

Garde Champetre (9/4fav) hits all 5 trends, not surprising as he's won the last 2 of these. Only 3 other horses have won a Cross Country Chase, L'Ami (7/2), Heads onthe Ground (33/1) and Another Jewel (20/1) (who is the only horse to hit 4/5 trends). Only 3 other horses have won in 1 of their last 2 runs as well, making this another likely win for Garde Champetre.


4.40 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle
4yo+, 2m 4f, Class 1 (Grade 2)

This should be a shootout between the two market principles. They both have possible negatives, Quevega hasn't raced since she won this last year and Voler La Vedette, pulls quite hard in her races and might not enjoy Cheltenham, she's also the Pricewise horse, so you know there's no value in her now. There's value in Quevega @ 2/1 now she's drifted and that is the win bet.
There is definitely some e/w value in the race if you don't fancy these 2. Easter Legend has been cut from 33/1 to 18/1

Selections:
Win: Quevega @ 2/1 (general
E/W: Easter Legend @ 18/1 (bet365, Paddypower, William Hill); Aura About You @ 40/1 (bet365); Amber Brook @ 40/1 (Betfred, Sportingbet, Bluesq, Stan James)

Trends:
This race is only 2 years old. Both winners were 5yo if that is any help. Last year's winner Quevega (5/4fav) is this years hotpot, but hasn't had a run since that win. Voler La Vedette (5/2) is her main market rival, while the inaugural winner, Whiteoak has been retired to stud.