RANDOX HEALTH GRAND NATIONAL
4 Miles 2 Furlongs, 74 Yards, Grade 3 Handicap Chase
1 Blaklion (12/1) ***
Travelled so well last year before fading into 4th, carrying 10lbs more this year, so has to be avoided i'm afraid.
2 Anibale Fly (12/1) ***
Came from a mile back to claim 3rd in the Gold Cup. 9lbs "well in" after that (ie if the race was re-weighted, he'd carry top weight (2lbs more, and all the others 7lb less in this instance). He doesn't feel like a National horse as as he's only 8 he has time on his side to be one.
3 The Last Samuri (22/1) ****
2nd in 2016, before lumping top weight around to 16th last year. A bit less to carry this year, but still too much.
4 Valseur Lido (100/1) ***
Ran just 16 days ago, I don't like that, weight is a little too high and all form at between 2m4 and 3m.
5 Total Recall (12/1) ****
Was going ok in the Gold Cup before falling 4 out, previously he looked a good winner of the old Hennessey (now Ladbrokes Trophy). Was thrown in at the weights that day, but could be the one high in the weights that runs the best. He has only 9 chase starts, so a bit of leeway can be given, but as he's fallen twice in those 9 runs something to prove.
6 Alpha Des Obeaux (40/1) *
8th in a Irish National (2017). More starts (7) this season than we want. Plenty of negatives, including no form (but in Grade 1s & 2s), no form at a trip and no big chase win mark him down.
7 Perfect Candidate (80/1) ****
Pulled up last year, raced keenly and faded. Carries 3lbs less this year and nothing really wrong with him in many departments. Off for 69 days is a worry for him though and has place chances at best.
8 Shantou Flyer (33/1) ****
Best run at Cheltenham last time. Probably didn't do himself justice last year when pulled up. He was only 7 at the time and maybe better this year. Has 24 chase starts behind him and 7 this season, that seems quite a lot and on balance is passed over.
9 Tenor Nivernais (125/1) **
Well down the field last year and likely to struggle this year too.
10 Carlingford Lough (50/1) **
Grade 1 Chase winner over 3 miles. Not a bad weight for this, but age may have caught up with him now (he's 12).
11 Tiger Roll (14/1) *****
Won the Cross Country at Cheltenham. Stays all day, and is perfect on trends. However, no experience of the fences and pulled-up in his Irish National run last year (after winning at Cheltenham) is a worry.
12 Regal Encore (33/1) ****
Ran well for a staying on 8th last year, 3rd in the Ladbrokes Trophy behind Total Recall and can't be ruled out of making the frame. Worry is he won't stay and will be ridden to get the trip rather than threaten to win.
13 Vieux Lion Rouge (33/1) *****
Form not as strong as last year and that prevents him being perfect. Nice weight and has won over the fences. 7th and 6th in the last 2 renewals so sure to go well. Shortlisted again.
14 Chase The Spud (40/1) *****
Won the Midlands National last season, but last 2 runs have been pretty disappointing (albeit on heavy ground). Stays all day and shouldn't be 66/1. GB-Breds don't have a great record in the race (Rule The World, the only once since 2001)
15 Warriors Tale (50/1) **
Not good enough to win this type of race, considering stayer Chase The Spud is bigger in price, quite ridiculous really.
16 Seeyouatmidnight (14/1) **
They squeezed a run into him 3 weeks ago after being off all season, that's not good preparation and thus only has 9 starts over fences. 3rd in 2016's Scottish National so, maybe next season.
17 Gas Line Boy (28/1) ****
Won the Sefton Handicap over these fences in December, previously was 5th here last year and staying on when hampered at the last, no chance with the winner. Unseated the rider at the first in 2015. He's now 12, so slightly too old, been off for 98 days, so too long and and carries 3lbs more this season.
18 The Dutchman (25/1) ****
Just 8 starts, and only an 8 year old. Good winner of the Peter Marsh Handicap, but pulled up in the Grand National Trial and this looks a year or two too early for him.
19 Pleasant Company (33/1) **
9th last year, Failed loads of trends then and does now. Just 9 chase starts and only 2 disappointing runs this season.
20 Ucello Conti (20/1) ***
6th in 2016 and unseated at Becher's on the 2nd circuit in 2017. Just 2 starts this season and still hasn't stepped up into the good staying chaser some thought he would. I won't rule out, but he won't make my shortlist this year.
21 Saint Are (66/1) ***
2nd in 2015, behind Many Clouds, and then 10th in 2016, before a staying on 3rd last season. He's now 12 and only has 2 starts (both pulled up) this season. His chance may have gone, but place chances.
22 Raz De Maree (25/1) ****
Welsh National Winner at 13 years old (rescheduled in January so had his birthday). Hasn't run since (98 days). 8th in this back in 2014 and unlucky to unseat last year. I can't have him now and he will be a very bad trends buster for me if he did win.
23 I Just Know (22/1) ****
Would be the lowest RPR-rated winner for quite a while, but could have more to offer after his last chase win over 3m 6f (£16k race). Just the 10 starts and Sue Smith won this with the previous lowest RPR-rated winner in Auroras Encore.
24 Virgilio (80/1) ****
Off for 4 months (had a wind operation). Not done too much in his career so far and nothing over a trip, so has to be ignored.
25 Baie Des Iles (18/1) ****
Stamina aplenty, but he's only 7 and isn't good enough this year, keep an eye out for him in future renewals.
26 Maggio (100/1) ****
He's now 13, and only 1 try over the fences (10th in the 2015 Topham). Stamina an issue and is easily opposed despite ticking all the other boxes.27 Pendra (100/1) ***
Just 2 runs since his 13th in the 2016 renewal. A really good comeback run at Cheltenham last year and a not so hot return this season. Has to be ignored but a nagging doubt remains that he could be a threat.
28 Buywise (66/1) ****
Won a Veteran's Handicap on his last chase run (first win for nearly 4 years). 12th in this in 2016. Always leaves himself too much to do and there are safer and more fun bets out there.
29 Childrens List (100/1) **
Just 4 starts, 2 this season and just a £6k win to his name. Stamina in pedigree, but not shown it in his fledgling chase career so far. Won't be winning this season
30 Lord Windermere (66/1) **
Gold Cup Winner in 2014, not shown it since and is now 12. Pulled-up here in 2015, before running surprising well for 7th last season. Just the one run this season and is ignored.
31 Captain Redbeard (22/1) ***
Gradually stepping up in trip, but nothing over this far. 6th in December's Sefton well behind Gas Line Boy and this looks like it's a bit too early for him. Maybe next year.
32 Houblon Des Obeaux (40/1) ***
Been around forever (38 chase starts) but he's still only 11. 10th last year, runs ok in these staying chases, but always finds a few too good.
33 Bless The Wings (66/1) ***
Getting old now (13) and has 46 starts. Been running in Cross Country Chases nowadays, but was pulled-up in the Irish National, just 12 days ago.
34 Milansbar (33/1) *****
Been much better since the turn of the year, winning the Betfred Classic at Warwick and a nice 2nd in the Midlands National last month. Perfect on trends, but am worried that he's had 4 tough runs in 2018. Bryony Frost would make it a fairytale win.
35 Final Nudge (50/1) ***
Not done too much so far (£10k win), 3rd in the Welsh National. Needs a bit more to win this, this year.
36 Double Ross (100/1) **
Done ok over the fences (2 5ths over shorter and pulled-up in this in 2016). Still no win over 3 miles or more and at 12, he can't be winning now.
37 Road To Riches (66/1) ***
25lbs down on his peak rating after his stellar season in 2014/15. But all form at 3 miles or so and been poor for a while now. Only run over a trip was last time when he pulled up in the Punchestown National Trial. Scope to improve on that and has the back-class to win off a featherweight if in the mood.
38 Thunder And Roses (80/1) ****
Irish National winner in 2015 (beat Rule The World). Hasn't completed on either of his starts over these fences, but had excuses on both runs. Latest form is PFF (including the Irish National 12 days ago) so something to prove at the moment.
39 Delusionofgrandeur (100/1) ***
Staying form but at a lower level (£8k win), just 8 so could be ready for next season.
40 Walk In The Mill (100/1) **
No form at this sort of trip and not good enough at the moment either.
With the course currently heavy, we may have to include horses that have failed trends. We need horses that will stay and prefer a softer surface.
Tiger Roll is unproven on it, so I'm tending to swerve his perfect trends.
Vieux Lion Rouge jumps the fences, but prefers better ground, though he'll handle soft. Wait and see on that one.
Raz De Maree is 13, but won the Welsh National in January and has been kept off since. I don't like his age, but he'll be fresh and will stay.
Seeyouatmidnight has just the one start this season, he's placed in a Scottish National and handles heavy ground. He has to enter calculations.
Chase The Spud won the Midlands National, but 2 pulled ups on heavy since are a worry, however he can't be dismissed.
Milansbar has been consistent but has had 4 tough runs in the calendar year. Ground will be fine.
It'll be attritional and the fences will be slowly jumped toward the end. It will be a strange one, I hope the trends hold up, but these are my 4 to follow, 2 trends horses, 2 purely on the conditions.
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT (16/1, Blacktype, 888, 14/1 general)
RAZ DE MAREE (25/1, general)
MILANSBAR (33/1, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Betbright, Betway)
CHASE THE SPUD (50/1 Betbright, 40/1 Bet365)
If you're going to the shops, I'm sure Paddy Power will have the most places, the rest of the high street will be pretty poor, so do it online if you can. Plenty of 6 places available, and 5 places everywhere else and probably best odds guaranteed. Oh and take a price in the shops, most will be shortened throughout the day.
Fingers crossed.
