Cheltenham Day 1, 2011

CHELTENHAM DAY 1, Tuesday 15^th March 2011

1.30 Stan James Supreme Novices' Hurdle

2m ½f, Grade 1, £100,000

Trends:
10/10 Won at least 50% of Hurdle starts
9/10 RPR of at least 132
9/10 Raced within the last 45 days
9/10 Won last race
8/10 Rated within 12lbs of RPR Top Rated (Cue Card)

(5/5) Magen's Star, Spirit Son

(4/5) Al Ferof, Gibb River, Rathlin, Recession Proof, Sprinter Sacre, Zaidpour, Marsh Warbler

Betting: Cue Card 5/2fav, Spirit Son 6/1, Al Ferof 10/1, Sprinter Sacre 10/1, Zaidpour 10/1, Recession Proof 11/1,

Others: Magen's Star 22/1, Gibb River 25/1, Marsh Warbler 25/1, Rathlin 50/1

Cue Card fails 2 of the trends, having been beaten by Champion Hurdle favourite last time. I don't think that's fair, I'm more concerned that he hasn't run for 3 months. He should still be the best horse in the race.

Spirit Son has done nothing wrong and hits all 5 trends, however Nicky Henderson hasn't won this since 1992, this could be his best chance and there must be more to come from Spirit Son.

Magen's Star, a mare hits all the trends but surely isn't good enough for this.

Al Ferof, runner-up to Cue Card in last year's Bumper ,isn't good enough in my eyes and is far too short now.

Recession Proof, impressive winner at Newbury hasn't done anything wrong, but whether he 'gets' Cheltenham is an unknown as all his runs have been on flat tacks.

Zaidpour was the great Irish hope but disappointed in his last 2 runs.

Sprinter Sacre needs to improve to win this, and is another Henderson horse.

Gibb River has a squeak each way at a price, but I'm not at all confident. The 3^rd Henderson horse.

Overall, there are no each-way bets advised here. I think Cue Card will win if he's fit enough, and the places filled by Spirit Son and Recession Proof.

Bets:

win: Cue Card, 5/2

2.05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase

2m, Grade 1, £130,000

Trends:10/10 SP not bigger than 9/1.
10/10 Aged 5-8
9/10 Finished in top 2 in all completed Chases (10/10 top 3)
9/10 Rated within 12lbs of the RPR Top-Rated
9/10 RPR of at least 145
9/10 A Best RPR Hurdle rating of at least 143
8/10 3-5 runs over fences
8/10 Won a Novice Chase over 2m-2m1f

(8/8) Finian's Rainbow, Medermit

(7/8) Captain Chris, Ghizao, Realt Dubh

Betting: Medermit 3/1fav, Ghizao 4/1, Finian's Rainbow 5/1, Captain Chris 8/1, Realt Dubh 9/1

The Arkle, for 2m Novice Chasers, seems to go to one of the horses at the front of the betting and the trends don't disagree.

I think Captain Chris is better over further and am surprised he was entered in this.

Finian's Rainbow has won every race but hasn't beaten anything of note in any of them.

Realt Dubh is better with cut in the ground.

Which leaves Medermit and Ghizao to battle it out. I'm with Medermit as Ghizao hasn't run this year. Still looking for that big each-way selection, can't find one, maybe in the handicaps later.

Bets:

win: Medermit, 3/1

2.40 Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase

3m 110y, Grade 3, £75,000

(formally the William Hill Trophy)

Trends:
10/10 Aged 7-10 (no horse aged 11+ placed since 1997)
10/10 Carried less than 10-13
10/10 OR of 129-143 (no winner rated 150+ since 1983)
9/10 Won over 3m or more
9/10 Finished in top 3 in either of last 2 starts

9/10 Top 4 finish last time. (The first 3 in 2010 had all won LTO (from 5 horses)
8/10 No more than 11 chases

(7/7) Adams Island, Slippers Percy

(6/7) Bensalem, Sunnyhillboy, The Rainbow Hunter, Wolf Moon

Betting: Bensalem 6/1jfav, Sunnhillboy 6/1jfav, Great Endeavour 7/1, Reve De Sivola 10/1

Others: Wolf Moon 14/1, Blazing Bailey 14/1Adams Island 20/1, The Rainbow Hunter 25/1, Chief Dan George 25/1, Slippers Percy 66/1

The trends are suggesting you are looking for a horse that has form over 3 miles, carrying less than 11 stone and isn't exposed. But I don't think Slippers Percy, Adams Island and Wolf Moon (from out of the handicap) are good enough.

Sunnyhillboy is a nice weight but is unproven beyond 2m 5f.

Great Endeavour beat Sunnyhillboy in the Byrne Plate last year but is carrying too much weight and again is unproven at the distance.

Bensalem seemed to get lost over fences and is a very short price for this

Reve De Sivola good hurdler, average chaser IMHO.

Blazing Bailey is the best horse in the race, but can't lug top weight and win this... well I don't think so anyway

Chief Dan George won last year but carries too much weight now and is an 11yo which goes against him

The horse I'm interested in is The Rainbow Hunter. Unlucky at Sandown last time when beaten in the run in (that's why he's not 7/7 in the trends), he has a nice weight and is definitely value. I'm a little worried about his lack of 'Class' but he's only had 5 races of the big obstacles and is open to improvement

Bet:

E/W: The Rainbow Hunter, 25/1

3.20 Stan James Champion Hurdle

2m ½f, Grade 3, £370,000

Trends:10/10 Ran within last 51 days
9/10 Aged 6-9
9/10 10-25 runs over hurdles
9/10 Pre-race RPR of at least 156

8/10 Won a Grade 1 Hurdle or Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle
8/10 Top Speed figure of at least 152
8/10 Rated within 7lbs of the RPR Top-rated
8/10 Won LTO

(8/8) Hurricane Fly

(7/8) Peddlers Cross

Betting: Menorah 4/1jfav, Hurricane Fly 4/1jfav, Peddlers Cross 9/2, Oscar Whisky 9/1, Dunguib 10/1, Khyber Kim 12/1

I can't decide what to do. My heart says Peddlers Cross, head says Hurricane Fly and there's Menorah too.

Hurricane Fly is classy, but only beats Solwhit and Thousand Stars, so far. His sire is Montjeu, who has never had a winner at Cheltenham and of course he's never run in the UK.

I really fancy Peddlers Cross to be honest and can't find fault in his form. If Cue Card wins the first then Menorah will start favourite after beating him in December but I think he's short enough already. If Hurricane Fly wins then Thousand Stars come into the reckoning as an each way bet.

Of the others, Dunguib would be a threat if it was softer and he was in better form, Oscar Whisky is too short, Khyber Kim seems to have lost his way but could be worth backing in-running as he will be held-up. Mille Chief has a bit of class about him but this could be too soon in his career for him. Overturn will make it a pacy race and it will be the best race of the festival. Enjoy, whoever you back.

Bets:

Win: Peddlers Cross, 9/2

4.00 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase

3m 7f, £40,000

Trends:6^th year of this race, so trends are not to be over-analysed.
6/6 Winners were trained in Ireland (4 by Enda Bolger)

6/6 Won over 3 miles or more

6/6 OR of 126+
5/6 Won at least 1 of their last 2 outings (last year's winner, A New Story didn't)
5/6 Won a Cross Country race either at Cheltenham or Punchestown (last year's winner hadn't)

(5/5) Garde Champetre

(4/5) L'Ami, A New Story, Another Jewel

Betting: Garde Champetre 5/1fav, L'Ami 13/2, Maljimar 13/2, Sizing Australia 8/1, A New Story 11/1, Another Jewel 16/1, Gullible Gordon 16/1

What a horrible race his is this year. Last year I picked out A New Story just before the race, this year I'm going to spend no time at all on this race as I can't find an edge.

Garde Champetre should be up there and is probably the worthy favourite, no-one else has winning form and only 4 horses have won a big Cross-Country at Cheltenham or Punchestown.

L'Ami is good but not as good as the favourite

Sizing Australia can't beat either of these.

Maljimar is far too short without a win past 2m5f.

A New Story is up 6lbs on last year's win and is a third of the price. Has a chance, but not going to carry my money this year.

Another Jewel was on my shortlist last year but is out of form. He's only win was in the Punchestown Cross Country Chase 14 months ago.

Gullible Gordon is English trained, by Paul Nicholls, and that is a terrible statistic to break. English trainers are 0/50 in the race and Nicholls 0/12. But he has a win this season over 3m3f and if he gets round has place chances.

Bets: (tentative)

E/W: Gullible Gordon, 16/1

4.40 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

2m 4f, Grade 2, £70,000

Quevega has won both renewals of this and is 11/10 fav again.

Betting: Quevega evsfav, Sparky May 9/2, L'Accordioniste 10/1, Banjaxed Girl 14/1, La Vecchia Scuola 22/1, Alasi 33/1

Can't really oppose Quevega, but I will as she's too short for my liking.

Sparky May is also quality, I expect them to both be in the money.

But I've followed Banjaxed Girl and think she's pretty honest. Maybe the fact that Carole's Legacy (who beat her at Kempton) decides to race in the old William Hill Trophy at 2.40 suggests that Quevega will be too good. However I certainly think a place position is up for grabs.

Alasi was beaten by Banjaxed Girl at Sandown and crushed by Sparky May at Ascot which shows that we shouldn't be looking too far down the betting.

L'Accordioniste is unproven past 2m1f and I don't want her here.

Betting: (tentative)

E'W: Banjaxed Girl, 16/1

5.15 Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase

2m 4½ f, Listed Race, £80,000

(formerly the Jewson Novices' Chase run on the thursday)

Trends:
Only 6 renewals.

6/6 Carrying less than 11-02 (no qualifiers this year)

6/6 Top 2 LTO

6/6 Top 4 in all completed jump starts

6/6 Only 1 win over jumps (!!)

5/6 OR of 133-139 (only Divers (132) and Songe (140) miss this)

5/6 Won over 2m2f or further

(5/6) Definity, On Borrowed Wings, Rougham

(4/6) American Trilogy, Osric, Premier Sagas, Quo Video, Tharawaat, Tullamore Dew

Betting: Definity 7/1fav, Tullamore Dew 9/1, Quantitativeeasing 9/1, Divers 10/1, On Borrowed Wings 11/1,

Others: Premier Sagas 16/1, Tharawaat 16/1, Swing Bill 16/1, American Trilogy 18/1, Nadiya De La Vega 20/1, Rougham 20/1, Osric 22/1, Quo Video 80/1

The trends this year are fairly pointless. All horses carry over 11-03. Most are within the OR bracket. And with only 6 renewals I don't want to limit myself to Top 2 LTO etc. I want my horse to have won over 2m2f though, that's for certain.

Definity is a worthy favourite and definitely got stamina in abundance. Nicholls/Walsh combination probably cuts 2-3 pts off his odds though.

Tullamore Dew had my money last year, but that was 80/1+, can't say he'll be carrying it this year as he hasn't beaten too much chasing so far, but we know he handles the course.

Quantitativeeasing has his pick of 5 races and chose this one so connection must think it's his best chance but I opposed him last year and am against him again at the top level.

On Borrowed Wings could be an e/w bet if he goes to 12/1 or bigger in the morning, but at 11/1 isn't in my portfolio.

Rougham beat Osric last time but I think he needs more, not sure I want a front-runner here either.

Nadiya De La Vega was all the rage in the autumn, but was found wanting at this trip and is opposed.

Tharawaat hasn't done much wrong since Christmas but hsn't beaten much either.

Quo Video is surely outclassed

Swing Bill impressed me, whe beating a few Cheltenham sorts in February at Wincanton and a good 3^rd behind Fine Parchment and Tail Of The Bank at Newbury last time could have put him in the frame for this. I definitely want to be on him at 16/1.

Bets:

Win: Definity, 7/1

E/W: Swing Bill 16/1

fingers crossed

VH