Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders' H'cap Chase) – Class 2 – 3m 11/2f

Can Same Difference (right) win back to back renewals.

Overview:

Strong trends, but weight not so much an issue this year. Should be able to find something competitive.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Were rate within 8lbs of the RPR top rated horse.

10/10 Had run over 3 miles or more last time.

10/10 Had won a Chase.

10/10 Had run within 78 Days.

9/10 Were rated officially between 124 and 140.

9/10 Aged between 7 and 9.

8/10 Had won a Chase over at least 3 miles.

8/10 Finished in the top 3 last time.

7/10 Had run in fewer than 12 chases. The last 7 winners.

Additionally

15 of the last 20 winners were aged 8 or 9.

The last 13 winners had run over 3 miles or more last time out.

Ireland haven't won this in the last 30 renewals.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 0-0-1

6yo 0-2-15

7yo 2-9-53

8yo 2-3-55

9yo 5-8-48

10yo 1-7-33

11yo 0-0-15

12yo 0-0-10

13yo 0-1-4

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.1 stars

Roberto Goldback 18/1 **

Too old and too high in the weights, probably. Trip/Ground are fine, but at 12 he's is TOO old.

Tranquil Sea 20/1 **

Form of his win in a Veteran's chase not working out (Time For Rupert flopped) and is also 12.

Twirling Magnet 14/1 ****

Off for 131 days is not good. But avoided bad ground in the meantime. Won here on the ground and the distance in the autumn. Chance.

Our Father 20/1 ***

All wins on softer, looks a bit of a plodder who wants further. First time blinkers *shrug*

Buddy Bolero 16/1 *****

Not a great run on good ground in December, so trust will have to taken on that. First time blinkers are on.

Same Difference 18/1 ****

Won last year, and now only 4lbs higher. Ground will be fine and can run another big race.

Indian Castle 13/2fav ***

Ground, trip, course no problem, but is only 6. All winners in the last 10 have come from at least 3 miles last time, however with the bad ground around, maybe they wanted him to get a run in and not kill him.

Cause Of Causes 15/2 **

How short is this one. 6 year old, no win in 7 chases and only ever won at about 2 miles. Good run last time at 3 miles though but fails many trends.

Lost Glory 40/1 ***

Trip fine,ground fine, but very poor last 2 on good ground. Off for 89 days as well.

Swing Bill 40/1 **

He must want further (2 good runs in Grand National), but too old (13) and too exposed and off for 3 months.

Spring Heeled 16/1 *****

Out of form on conditions that should suit. No wins past 2m5 either.

Dursey Sound (NR)

Balnaslow 10/1 *****

Only point-to-point form at this distance, but place chances on his latest form.

Saint Are 40/1 ***

Don't think he's a 3 miler at Cheltenham, and off for nearly 4 months.

Mumbles Head 66/1 **

13 year old, who's been off for ages. Ground/trip fone, but not run at Cheltenham since him bumper days.

Fine Parchment 50/1 *

Doesn't look good enough at 11yo and exposed, but has form on ground and trip this season but last time wasn't inspiring.

Pickamus 66/1 ***

Trip/ground fine, but humped last time and record at Cheltenham doesn't inspire confidence for this 11yo.

There's No Panic 16/1 ****

Off the track for 96 days is a negative, but isn't too bad and is shortlisted.

Night Alliance 33/1 *****

Perfect on the trends. Pulled-Up last time on heavy, but has a chance today.

Tabhachtach 33/1 **

looks about ½ mile too far for him. No thanks.

Gas Line Boy 33/1 ****

85 days off not great, loos short of expereince, and well humped last time. No ins on ground this fast either.

Quinz 33/1 **

Too old now and no wins for 3 years.

Hunting Party 25/1 ***

Don't think he'll get the trip

Problema Tic 33/1 ***

Out of form. Should get the trip on the ground, but has had it this season and flopped. Also off for a tad too long.

Conclusions

Narrowed it down to 5 for the shortlist.

SAME DIFFERENCE (18/1, bet365, 5 pl) is weighted to repeat the feat or at least get pretty close.

THERE'S NO PANIC (16/1, bet365, 5pl) has been off for long than any of the last 10 winners, but has a chance if he's fit.

NIGHT ALLIANCE (33/1, Bet365, Stan James, 5pl) is perfect, but needs to bounce back today, but at 33/1 its a chance we can take.

Balnaslow (10/1) is too short to bet e/w, so just a watching brief there.

Indian Castle (13/2fav) is also too short but is placepot material.

Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase – Grade 3 – 2m 41/2f

Carrickboy, now a non-runner today, wins easily at 50/1 last year.

Overview

Usually a shock, so good luck with finding a winner. Trends are pretty strong, but lots of horses pass the majority. Hopefully with the ground good, we can rule out a few.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had won at least a Class 3 Chase.

10/10 Had won over at least 2m3f.

9/10 Hadn't run in either of that season's Cheltenham Gold Cup Handicaps.

9/10 Had less than 17 Chase starts.

9/10 Had run within the last 42 days.

9/10 Officially Rated btween 128-139.

8/10 Had finished in the top 5 last time.

8/10 Carried less than 10-11.

8/10 Aged between 6 and 9.

7/10 Had run at a previous festival.

Additionally

24 of the last 26 winners were rated less than 142.

18 of the last 22 winners had a top 4 finish last time out.

18 of the last 22 winners had raced at a previous festival.

12 of the last 13 winners were at double-figure odds.

Only 1 Irish trained winner since 1951.

Only 1 of the last 15 winners had run more than 16 times over fences.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup winner (in November) hasn't won this in the last 20 years.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 0-1-3

6yo 2-4-21

7yo 2-2-37

8yo 3-13-63

9yo 1-5-37

10yo 1-4-33

11yo 1-1-16

12yo 0-0-3

13yo 0-2-3

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.5 stars

Champion Court 14/1 **

Decent horse, just shy of the top grade. Top weight even a 7lb claimer won't help too much. Grouns will be fine.

Johns Spirit 10/1 ***

Paddy Power winner, which isn't a good thing giving the handicapper a chance to kill you. Off for 89 days isn't good either, but trip ground and course are fine. Place chances.

Colour Squadron 17/2fav **

NO wins in 6 chases, yet the RP tip him for this. He'll run well, but always finds one too good.

Tap Night 12/1 ***

Not won at this class. Bound to find a couple too good.

Third Intention 16/1 *****

High OR, but weight is fine, Looks to want further to be honest, especially on this ground. Is a 5 star horse on the trends though.

Ballynagour 16/1 ***

Not run since the Paddy Power. Don't like that. Disappointed when 8^th last year (started favurite) and unproven on the ground.

Tatenen 33/1 ***

Everything looks in his favour, but at 10 yo I want to look elsewhere. Winning form is over 2m or 2m6 and is well exposed now.

Bless The Wings 25/1 ****

Been running averagely on bad ground. Drop back will suit but unproven on the ground. First time blinkers may find a bit of improvement here.

Carrickboy (NR)

.

Bennys Mist 33/1 ****

Most wins are on heavy, so even though he's good on the trends, will have to be left alone.

Sraid Padraig 9/1 ****

Another with most wins on heavy and been off for over 3 months now. Too short.

King Edmund 50/1 ****

Exposed 11yo. On the plus side the ground is fine.

Wetak 33/1 ****

2 wins on Very Soft at 2m2. Fail

Nadiya De La Vega 20/1 ****

Needs to step back in trip after poor run last time. Trip and ground are good and has a chance. First time visor on could make all the difference.

Firth Of The Clyde 20/1 ****

Not won past 2m2 and ground unknown.

Shangani 20/1 *****

Few penalised horses win at the festival. He's the only horse perfect at the trends, but this ground is a worry.

Mr Cracker 66/1 *****

Flopped the last 4 times. Has won on the ground, but also ran badly twice, if this is a handicap coup, then it's well disguised.

Giorgio Quercus 20/1 *****

Trip and ground are fine, but Cheltenham is not. Off for 108 days , so the 5-star horse is left alone.

Act Of Kalanisi 50/1 ****

Not won a Chase past 2m, but ground will help.

Sew On Target 25/1 ****

Low level form at trip and form. Place chances, but shouldn't be winning.

Gallox Bridge 100/1 ****

Only hurdle form at the trip and ground. Probably shouldn't be 100/1, but probably won't' place either.

Tartak 33/1 ***

Off for 11 weeks, races over further these days, but could roll back the years.

Highway Code 40/1 ****

Another off a while, and unproven at trip.

Christopher Wren 66/1 ****

No Chase wins over this distance, dry ground will help him, each way possiblities carrying 9 stone 9lbs perhaps.

Conclusions

The trends are not helping. NADIYA DE LA VEGA (25/1 skybet, 5pl) has lots in his favour. The first time visor could make all the difference. I may back some other later, but this is a small stakes race.

Ladbrokes World Hurdle – Grade 1 - 3m

Solwhit was a worthy winner last year, but missed this years through injury.

Overview

Big Buck's goes for his 5^th win in this, Annie Power steps up to 3 miles for the first time. It's a match. Can something else come out of the pack? Trends are strong but skewed towards just 2 winners.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Finished in the top 2 last time.

10/10 Less than 5 runs since August.

10/10 Top 2 in all hurdle runs that season.

10/10 Had previous festival experience.

10/10 Aged between 6 and 9.

9/10 Had achieve a RPR of at least 165.

8/10 Had won a Graded Hurdle over 3 miles or more.

8/10 Had run in between 8 and 20 hurdle races. (Big Buck's last 2 wins excepted)

Additionally

17 of the last 20 winners had run in the previous year's festival.

10 of the last 12 winners had won a Graded Hurdle over 3 miles or more.

No Champion Hurdle contender has won since 1992.

No winner was out of the top 2 in the previous year's renewal since 1981.

The last 26 winners finished in the top 4 last time.

The last 14 winners finished in the top 2 last time.

The last 13 winners came from the top 4 in the betting.

No 5-year old has ever won.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 0-3-8

6yo 3-7-30

7yo 2-3-35

8yo 2-1-29

9yo 3-4-22

10yo 0-2-8

11yo 0-0-5

13yo 0-0-1

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.5 stars

At Fishers Cross 9/1 ***

Some terrible jumping early in the season from the leading staying novice last season. Better last time, but still beat by a 66/1 shot. Only run on Good/Soft (or better) was a Novice win at Aintree last year, so ground unproven.

Big Buck's 4/1 **

I was happy with his comeback run, 3^rd behind At Fishers Cross and Knockara Beau. Some we're not.

Still the best 3 miler out there. But not going to be better than he was aged 11. Not 10yo has placed in last 10 years and fails loads of trends in this (some a bit iffier than others.) Ground is fine.

Celestial Halo 33/1 **

Second last year at a huge price, place chances I'm sure but very poor last time and is a little too old now. Ground an unknown.

Mala Beach 100/1 ***

Looks outclassed, nd no form on ground.

Medinas 50/1 ****

Coral Cup winner last year. Probably not good enough to win but consistent and ground is fine. 50/1 is a massive price.

More Of That 10/1 ***

Hasn't beaten much so far and not guaranteed to stay. Ground will be perfect if he does.

Reve De Sivola 50/1 **

Should be up there as he's an out and out stayer, but they might leave him behind this year. 50/1 for a Grade 2 3 mile winner at Cheltenham is a little ridiculous though.

Rule The World 10/1 ****

Nothing to suggest he'll get the trip and he's never run on ground this fast. Decent on the trends though.

Salubrious 28/1 ***

Paul Nicholls only winner at last years' festival. Everything is fine for him, but beaten by Reve De Sivola and More Of That this year. Place chance at a price.

Zarkandar 14/1 ****

Beaten by Annie Power and also steps up to 3 miles for the first time. If he stays he has the quality to do something. Will need the ground to stay good.

Annie Power 7/4fav ***

With her 7lb allowance, she's the top rated horse here. Unproven on the ground, but will need it to get the trip. Less experience than all winners and fails others obviously because she's trying 3m for the first time.

Quevega (NR)

Conclusions:

No perfect horses this year, so trends will be broken. Looks like a match between Annie Power (7/4fav) and BIG BUCK'S (4/1). However at the prices, I have to side with the big man. Each-way, MEDINAS (66/1, boylesports) is huge and I'm tempted. He's 16/1 (w/o Annie And Buck's at bet365) and 22/1 (w/o Annie).

Ryanair Festival Trophy Chase – Grade 1 – 2m 4f

Cue Card misses this year's festival with injury.

Overview:
 Looks a decent renewal with some up and coming 2nd season chasers. There are some dodgy characters here too who will need to bounce back. Cue Card would have gone for the Gold Cup if he'd not been injured, even though I though he'd walk this.

9-Year Trends

9/9 Had an Adjusted RPR of 165 or more. Best RPR of 158+.

9/9 OR of 152 or more.

9/9 Aged 10 or younger.

9/9 Had finished top 2 in one of their last 2 Chase finishes.

8/9 Had won at the distance.

8/9 Had won at the course. 6 Runners up had too.

8/9 Had less than 5 runs since October.

7/9 Had finished in the top 3 last time out. The 2 that did not ran in a King George.

7/9 Had run between 5 and 17 times over fences. 1 with 22 Chases had won before.

Additionally

8 of the 9 winners started at 6/1 or shorter.

5 of the 6 winners since an upgrade to Grade 1 in 2008 had already won a Grade 1 Chase.

5 of the 6 winners since the upgrade had run in the King George VI Chase.

5 of the 6 winners since the upgrade were rated 162+ on official ratings.

5 of the 6 winners since the upgrade were rated 171+ by the Racing Post.

5 of the 6 winners since the upgrade were rated within 3lbs of the RPR top rated.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

6yo 1-2-5

7yo 1-3-10

8yo 2-6-27

9yo 2-4-26

10yo 3-2-13

11yo 0-1-10

12yo 0-0-3

13yo 0-0-1

Contenders – 9 year trends winner averaged 4.2 stars

Al Ferof 5/1 *****

Best on the trends, tough race last time. Hope he's got that out of his system.

Benefficient 4/1 ****

Won us some cash last year, not yet won at distance, but give him a chance, he won over a furlong shorter last year. Chance, but short enough in market on ground he's not won on.

Boston Bob 11/1 **

All to prove now after coming up short this year. Should have won the RSA last year and looks a 3 miler. Think they'll go to fast for him.

Cantlow (NR)

Dynaste 7/2fav *****

Decent favourite, his 5^th last time is a fail, but that was in the King George, so we'll forgive him that. Everything looks in his favour.

Hidden Cyclone 10/1 ***

Could have run in the Champion Chase. No course/distance win and inexperience on drying ground. Rathlin turned him over in similar conditions in the Galway festival.

Hunt Ball 25/1 ***

Surely his time has gone, on his best form he'd have a chance on this ground, but can't have him here.

Kauto Stone 50/1 *

Frustrating, as he's is talented, but has to be passed over here.

Medermit 33/1 **

1 race in 2 years, but ground will suit. Quirky.

Menorah 8/1 *****

Hits the trends, and ground will suit. But only 1 run this season and is he quite good enough.

Rajdhani Express 25/1 ****

Won the novice handicap last year and ran ok in the Paddy Power Chase, but off since then and this will be a big ask. Open to improvement though and ground is fine.

Rathlin 20/1 **

Twice the price of Hidden Cyclone, but conditions should suit better. If you forgive his last 2 runs on bad ground, he has an each-way squeak.

Conclusions:

Not sure I can find an each way here. Looks between AL FEROF (5/1) and DYNASTE (7/2fav) to me. Rathlin (20/1) might outrun his price but surely can't win.

Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) – Listed - 3m

Holywell wins last years at 25/1

Overview

Limited trends on offer and nothing too concrete. This renewal has a compressed handicap, so the top weights should be ok.

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had run within the last 61 days.

9/10 Were aged between 6 and 9. [Buena Vista retained his title aged 10]

8/10 Had won a Class 3 hurdle. [Oulart won 9k Ir race]

8/10 Carried less than 10-12 in weight.

8/10 Had won over 3 miles or more.

8/10 Officially rated between 129 and 142.

Additionally

9 of the last 18 winners had won last-time out from only 20% of runners.

6 of the last 8 winners were aged 8 or older.

The last 13 winners were rated lower than 143.

The last 10 winners were 10/1 or bigger, including 2 50/1 winners.

Only 1 5yo has won in the history of the race.

Only 1 of the last 17 winners had won it's qualifying race.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 0-5-22

6yo 2-7-48

7yo 1-7-59

8yo 3-8-52

9yo 3-1-23

10yo 1-1-15

11yo 0-0-13

12yo 0-0-1

13yo 0-1-2

Contenders – 10 year trends winner averaged 4.1 stars

Fingal Bay 7/1jfav ***

Would be one of the highest rated winners, but has a chance due to the compressed weights. The trends are punishing him twice, so has a chance.

Southfield Theatre 25/1 ***

Not won a Class 3 yet, so a bit high in the weights for me.

Quartz De Thaix 50/1 **

Struggled on the winter ground, but, at 10, looks too old.

Trustan Times 33/1 ***

Not won this season, needs to get back to how he beat Holywell 2 years ago off top weight in a good handicap but better groun should help.

Jetson 12/1 ***

Ground should be against him here.

Seefood 14/1 *

Not won at distance or class yet. Decent 2^nd last time though, but doesn't win much and has been off for 75 days.

Mickie 28/1 ***

She could have run in the Mares Hurdle, so is respected. Dour stayer who might get outpaced here.

Grand Vision 14/1 *****

Consistent, but wins are few and far between. Not won on faster than good/soft.

On The Bridge 16/1 ****

Off the track for 146 days, so I will pass him over with no 3 mile win over hurdles (2m7f). Ground is fine.

Pineau De Re 33/1 ***

Too old and no class/dist win over hurdles.

If In Doubt 7/1jtfav ****

Favourite with no win over this far. Close form with Fingal Bay.

Vics Canvas 50/1 ****

Too old and little form at the distance.

Uncle Jimmy 20/1 *****

All winning for on soft ground, but ran well on good as well. Each way chance.

Top Wood 20/1 *****

Another you couldn't rule out but won his qualifier and they usually get stung by the handicapper. Each way chance though. 1^St time tongue-tie today.

Mister Dillon 25/1 *****

Big chance of a place here, no negatives really.

Lie Forrit (NR)

Pateese 50/1 *****

Not been winning much, and certainly not on good ground. Fits all the trends though.

First Fandango 66/1 *****

Badly out of form, but ground will suit. Need to improve even if he's perfect trends-wise.

Cross Kennon 40/1 ****

Gives his all, but too old now.

Utopie Des Bordes 25/1 *****

Ground will suit, but not really in form.

Crowning Jewel 25/1 ****

Not won at the distance but has run well. Ground will suit and has an each-way chance.

Broadway Buffalo 25/1 ****

Will like the ground, but needs to up his performances so far.

Josies Orders 12/1 *****

No win on good so far but has won on good/soft and is in good form. Claimer takes off 5 for Jonjo.

So Fine 28/1 ****

Off the track for 3 months, but has run well this season here and the ground will be perfect. Chance if fit.

Conclusions

Very very competitive, a couple of tentative each-way selections are. CROWNING JEWEL (25/1) and SO FINE (28/1), both at the bottom of the handicap. Could throw in Josies Order (12/1) and Uncle Jimmy (20/1) as well, but lets limit the stakes. 90% of the field has a chance here.

JLT (Golden Miller) Novices' Chase – Grade 2 – 2m 4f

Benefficient (right) beats Dynaste. They renew rivalries in today's 3rd race.

Overview

Only 3 years to look at, but there are a few things the winners had in common. We can use a bit of common sense with some of these.

3-Year Trends

All 3 winners had:-

Won at least a Grade 2 Chase or were 2^nd in a Grade 1.

Won over at least 2m4f.

Achieved a RPR of 151 or more. Adjusted RPR of 161 or more.

Aged 6 or 7.

Had at least 3 Chase runs.

Were Top 2 in all their Chase runs.

Had achieved a season win.

Had run within the last 53 days.

Were in the top 4 all season.

Additionally

7 of the 9 top 3 finishers had won last time out.

6 of the 12 top 4 finishers had run well in a festival handicap hurdle.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 0-0-1

6yo 1-0-12

7yo 2-5-17

8yo 0-1-3

9yo 0-0-1

Contenders

Captain Ocana 500/1 *

Looks outclassed

Double Ross 14/1 ****

Double handicap winner here this season, so deserves some respect. No winner was as old as this, but e/w chance here on ground he likes.

Felix Yonger 7/2fav ****

Top rated in this, but I thought he'd be better in the Arkle. Again, he's 8, which can be forgiven and has a decent chance but the ground may be a little quick.

Mozoltov 20/1 ****

He's also 8. Was the stable no1 in the Arkle, when 3^rd to Trifolium and Felix Yonger. Ground is an unknown but how good is the form? Is a big price though.

Off The Ground 25/1 **

Not won at a level that all other winner have so far, and only distance success was over hurdles. Also 8 years old and off for 89 days.

Oscar Whisky 6/1 ****

Now 9, but the best 2m4f runner in the field, over hurdles. Hasn't done too much wrong so far, but not been too convincing either. His duels with Tarquin De Seuil may be key.

Sizing Gold 12/1 **

Consistent at a lower level in his 2 runs so far, but is this too hot for him.

Taquin De Seuil 9/1 *****

Is the perfect horse if you are happy with the trends, I am and he has a good chance, ground is ok.

Uxizandre 28/1 ***

Plenty to prove after flopping last time, this is a lot hotter.

Wonderful Charm 11/2 ****

Gave Oscar Whisky 8lbs for a short defeat, and is well respected. Off for 3 months is a doubt but will like the ground, and should be in the mix.

Djakadam 10/1 **

Only 2 runs and not up to the level so far, but looks better stepped up in trip. He's only 5 so is a bit younger than the winners, one for the future.

Vukovar 9/1 *

Done nothing so far, but better up in trip, he's 5 with just 2 jumps and is jet to win as far as this on ground as fast as this, pass.

Conclusions

Interesting renewal with no shortie taking a chunk out of the market. TAQUIN DE SEUIL (9/1) is the trends horse and has to be a pick. Each way, DOUBLE ROSS (14/1) is in form and course, distance and going is fine.