Grand National 2012 - Entries

 1 Syncronised 8/1fav 

Trainer: Jonjo O'Neill Jockey: Tony McCoy

The Cheltenham Gold Cup winner heads the weights, however he was top-weight before he won it and is now “well-in” (ie the handicapper has rated him 167 if the weights for the National came out today). Of course that wouldn't help him in here as he'd still carry 11-10. He's also only had 9 Chase runs, but it would be lovely to see him win. Expect him to be running on through beaten horses if his Gold Cup exploits haven't taken their toll and he may sneak a place.

2 Ballabriggs 14/1 

T: Donald McCain J: Jason Magiuire

Last years winner. It seems that that win took it out of him last year and he's had a delayed preparation this year. This is not good news as his only run looked good before he ran out of puff in the run in. He'll come on for the run but it will be tough carrying this weight around Aintree.

3 Weird Al 40/1 

T: Donald McCain J; Timmy Murphy

Good horse, just short of top class, but has the scope to improve. Pulled-up in the Gold Cup but I don't see this as his thing and I'd rather he didn't run. Only 9 Chase starts and is carrying too much weight.

4 Calgary Bay 33/1 

T: Henrietta Knight J: Dominic Elsworth

Seems to have been around forever but is still only 9. Looks in good form with a Skybet Chase win at he end of January under his belt, but hasn't run since then and that is a negative for me. He fell last year whilst carrying 10-10 and I think he's now in the handicapper's grip (on 11-6) to ever win this.

5 Neptune Collonges 33/1 

T: Paul Nicholls J: Daryl Jacob

Decent horse who's a bit long in the tooth now. He's got 11-6 on his back and at has been off since his good 2^nd in the National Trial (behind Giles Cross) 56 days ago.

6 Alfa Beat 40/1 

T: John Joseph Mangan J: TBD

Failed to finish in his last 2 starts, but won a good handicap before that. At 8 years old he's a bit on the young side and is too highly rated to really be winning this but.....

7 Planet Of Sound 33/1 

T: Philip Hobbs J: Richard Johnson

Won a weak-ish Grade 1 at Punchestown 2 seasons ago, but has only had 2 runs this season, a good 2^nd in an average Hennessey and 3^rd in the Racingplus Chase. So he's in form but is a little high in the weights for me.

8 Black Apalachi 50/1 

T: Dessie Hughes J: Denis O'Regan

He's record in the National is FU2. Great numberplate!! Has won over these fences in the Becher Chase in 2008, however he's old, very old at 13 and his chance went 2 years ago. His only run this season was 2^nd in the Bobbyjo Chase behind Prince De Beauchene so can't be ruled out for a place, but he won't be carrying my money.

9 Deep Purple 66/1 

T: Evan Williams J: Jamie Moore

Won a 3m6f handicap at Sandown in December on his seasonal début but fell in the Racingplus Trophy. These are his only 2 runs this season, that and him being an 11yo carrying 11-3 make him less likely of a winner, but he can run well

10 Junior 12/1 

T: David Pipe J: Tom Scudamore

One of the favourites for this years renewal on the back of him hosing up in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last season and then a good 2^nd giving 22lbs to Ikorudu Road in the Grimthorpe Chase after 8 months off (winner won again since), but is far too inexperience to be winning this with just 8 Chases under his belt. Only 2 runs this season and whilst 11-2 is ok to carry round, he's far to short to back this year.

11 Chicago Grey 16/1 

T: Gordon Elliott J: TBD

Won the 4 miler at Cheltenham in 2011. But not so hot this season. Can't rule him out on that evidence but doesn't seem to love his racing as much this season when I've backed him. Not seen a racetrack for 56 days is a slight negative too.

12 Tatenen 100/1 

T: Richard Rowe J: Andrew Thornton

At his best over 2m5f, and certainly hasn't won over 3 miles or more. He's a little young (8yo) and has been off the track for 56 days.

13 According To Pete 40/1 

T: Malcolm Jefferson J: Harry Haynes

Really come good this year with 2 big handicap wins. He hits all the trends but is just out of the perfect age trend (11yo). Back him and you should get a good run for your money.

14 Seabass 20/1 

T: Ted Walsh J: Ms Katie Walsh

Irish raider, who hits all the trends, but his only 3m wins were in Point-to-Point races. He's in hot form over shorter and could either win or blow out. Worth backing at 20/1 but I'd stay clear if he's shorter.

15 Shakalakboomboom 25/1 

T: Nicky Henderson J: Barry Geraghty

2^nd in the Skybet Chase behind Calgary Bay last time but won a Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham in December. He fits all the major trends, but is just 8 years old and has only 9 Chases under his belt Has a good chance of making the frame at least.

16 West End Rocker 14/1 

T: Alan King J: Wayne Hutchinson

Romped home in this season's Becher Chase (same fences) beating Niche Market by 22 lengths, but hasn't run since (133 days). Only having 2 runs to his name this season means he has to break 2 trends but any more rain will be in his favour.

17 On His Own 14/1 

T: Willie Mullins J: Ruby Walsh

Where to start? He's very inexperienced with just 6 Chase starts and is only 8. He did win the Thyestes Chase over at Gowran Park in January, but with only 2 runs this season and having been off since that win, he has it all to do on the trends. Ruby Walsh prefers him and he's halved in price. Pass over this year.

18 Always Right 28/1 

T: John Wade J: James Reveley

3^rd in last season's Scottish Grand National, pulled-up in last 2 starts (on soft & heavy ground). Has ability and can't be ruled out, although he's been off for a stat-busting 56 days.

19 Cappa Bleu 14/1 

T: Evan Williams J: Paul Moloney

Rarely raced and thus only has 6 Chase starts despite being a 10yo. Has ability and can be expected to run through beaten horses at the end. Will he win? Doubtful as he may have too much to do by then, but won the Foxhunters' at Cheltenham 3 years ago off a year break, so a 56 day break may not be the hardest trend to bust for him.

20 Rare Bob 40/1 

T: Dessie Hughes J: Bryan Cooper

This horse is the perfect trends match. However I really don't think he can win. He hasn't won at a trip for 3 years and isn't really in any sort of form. I'm taking half a mark off for that, however he does pass ALL the trends.

21 Mon Mome 50/1 

T: Venetia Williams J: Aidan Coleman

The winner when out of form in 2009, now he's really out of form with his seasonal numbers being 52PP0. He's 12 now and his best years are behind him. I hope he runs well but shouldn't be up there this time.

22 Organisedconfusion 25/1 

T: Arthur Moore J: Miss Nina Carberry

Busted a lot of trends by winning last season's Irish Grand National as a 6 year old. Will need to crack some more at 7 this year. It's the only trend he fails and he can win in future years, but must be ignored because he's so young.

23 The Midnight Club 33/1 

T: Willie Mullins J: TBD

Finishing a distant 9^th in the Gold Cup strangely move him up in the trends, however he really isn't the sort to be winning this. However he passes all the trends with the slight niggle being at he's 11 and just misses the sweet age of previous winners.

24 Treacle 20/1 

T: Tom Taaffe J: Andrew Lynch

3rd, 7 lengths behind Quel Esprit in the Irish Hennessy. He has a chance at a nice weight but has been off for 2 months and is now 11 so is ignored.

25 Arbor Supreme 66/1 

T: Jonjo O'Niell J: TBD

Fell in last years face when I fancied him. He's not run since December and only has 2 starts to his name this season. His last 3 runs give form figures of F-60 and clearly has it all to do this year.

26 Sunnyhillboy 16/1 

T: Jonjo O'Neill J: Richie McLernon

He's the perfect match. He won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham (due to go up 10lbs for it) and I hope it didn't take too much out of him, but with a month off he's got sufficient rest. He's got a very good chance if he back to his best.

27 Killyglen 16/1 

T: Stuart Crawford J: Robbie Power

Another with the perfect profile. His Down Royal win last month should have put him spot on and he's been running over Hurdles to keep him out of the handicappers spotlight.

28 Quiscover Fontaine 50/1 

T: Willie Mullins J: David Casey

He'll be lucky to make it round once. He's has only 7 Chase starts and has been off the track for 77 days. Throw in a lack of a win over 3 miles or more and that his 2 Chase wins won £7k in each and we don't have a National winner. Oh he's also a bit young at 8 years old too.

29 Tharawaat 125/1 

T: Gordon Elliott J: TBD

He's only 7 and is out of form with his season runs showing 13077. His biggest chase win was a £13k victory in October. He shouldn't be winning.

30 Always Waining 40/1 

T: Peter Bowen J: Tom O'Brien

He's the winner of the Topham Chase at this festival in the last 2 seasons. So he loves the course and loves the fences. He doesn't win anywhere else nowadays. His minor problems are that he's an 11yo who's not in winning form. He still has a chance, but I'd rather he was in better form than 409 in his last 3 runs. The '4' was in the Becher Chase behind West End Rocker on heavy ground.

31 Becauseicouldntsee 20/1 

T: Noel Glynn J: TBD

Ran a cracker behind Sunnyhillboy at Cheltenham. Fell in last years race, but his only win at 3m was in a Point-to-Point. His only Chase win was worth £10k in 2010 and is passed over due to that.

32 Le Beau Bai 40/1 

T: Richard Lee J: TBD

He fits all the trends but has been off the track for 56 days, a week to much according to our trends.

He should go well and has to be considered.

33 State Of Play 50/1 

T: Evan Williams J: Noel Fehily

Has placed in the last 3 Nationals, despite being off the track for long periods before each race. This will be his seasonal début again this year and is now 12 so if he was going to win, he'd have done it by now. Can he place again is a more pertinent question.

34 Swing Bill 80/1 

T: David Pipe J: TBD

He Pulled-Up in the Becher Chase and was well down the field in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham. He's raced too many times this season for my liking, I'm not too worried that this 11yo has “only” won a £15k Chase, but I'll be looking elsewhere

35 Postmaster 66/1 

T: Tim Vaughan J: TBD

Has picked up some small prize money recently, but has only won a £10k Chase so far and looks out of his depth here. However he passes the other trends and is rated a 4 star.

36 Giles Cross 16/1 

T: Victor Dartnall J: Paddy Brennan

The ground has softened at Aintree and with more rain to come his price has plummeted now he's in the race as he loves the marathon chases in bottomless ground. He's been off for 56 days but his record this year is Southern National (1^st), Welsh National (2^nd), Grand National Trial (1^st) and placed in a previous Eider Chase, Welsh National and Midlands National so is well respected.

37 Midnight Haze 125/1 

T: Kim Bailey J: TBD

Has a chance of some place money if he can get the run of the race, however he's only had 2 runs this season and his best win was only a Class 3 Handicap worth £7k, better value elsewhere.

38 Vic Venturi 66/1 

T: Dessie Hughes J: TBD

Similar to Black Apalachi, if he was going to win the race he would have done so by now. Failed to finish through no fault of his own in the last 2 renewals but only managed to clear 3 fences in total.

He's been off for 62 days and if getting a little long in the tooth.

39  In Compliance 150/1 

T: Dessie Hughes J: Leighton Aspell

Decent horse in his day but beset by injury problems. Now 12, he was never a National Horse with his best form over 21/2miles and coupled with him only having 2 runs this season can easily be dismissed.

40 Viking Blond 100/1 

T: Nigel Twiston-Davies J: TBD

Very inexperienced 7 year old (5 Chase runs) and his only win was a Novice Chase worth £3k. Off for 56 days as well after missing Cheltenham. Maybe another year.

--------------------- HORSES ABOVE THIS LINE ARE GUARANTEED A RUN ---------------------

41 Hello Bud 80/1 

T: Nigel Twiston-Davies J: Sam Twiston-Davies

Old war-horse who's now 14, but will happily bowl around up front looking like the winner before fading in the final quarter of the race. Previous Scottish National Winner in 2009 and Becher Chase winner in 2010. He was 5^th in 2010 and Pulled-Up last year. Not the horse he was and has finished 5U654 this season.

42 Neptune Equester 150/1 

T: Brian Ellison J: TBD

Lost his way in the winter after a productive summer, faster ground may be the key as he was punted into 11/2 for the Grimthorpe but ran badly. He's officially rated ”not good enough to win this” and misses the £17k win stat by “only” winning a £16k Chase at Haydock in November.

43 Any Currency 80/1 

T: Martin Keighley J: Alain Cawley

Not won since 2009 which was his best result (worth £12k), his last 3 runs are P47 and isn't good enough to win and he's also been off since January's Argento Chase at Cheltenham.

44 Our Island 150/1 

T: Tim Vaughan J: TBD

Probably the worst horse in the race for National purposes. He's 7. Only rated 130. Has 7 Chases, this season, under his belt. Is out of form (658). Hasn't won a Chase so far, so his 3m+ form is over hurdles.

45 Abbeybraney 150/1 

T: George Bewley J: Ryan Mania

Rated 128, his only Chase win was a Novice Chase in 2009 worth £9k. He's now 11 and doesn't look like improving now.

46 Smoking Aces 150/1 

T: Tom Taaffe J: TBD

Rated 128, he's been out of the money in his last 3 (064) starts and if that isn't enough he “only” won a £15k Chase and is a little young being 8.

47 Ballyvesey 150/1 

T: Peter Bowen J: TBD

Rated 125, this 7yo also hasn't won over 3 miles or more and his biggest win was only £3k. He hasn't been seen for a “huge 50 days”.

HORSES RATED BY CHANCE OF WINNING

 The perfect profile and I expect a big run

SUNNYHILLBOY (16/1) and KILLYGLEN (16/1)

 Solid horses who have a good chance

Giles Cross (16/1), Chicago Grey (16/1), Seabass (20/1), Shakalakaboomboom (25/1), The Midnight Club (33/1), According To Pete (40/1), Rare Bob (40/1), Le Beau Bai (40/1)

 A place run is possible, but I'd be surprised if they won.

Cappa Bleu (14/1), Treacle (20/1), Organisedconfusion (25/1), Always Right (28/1), Always Waining (40/1), Alfa Beat (40/1), Postmaster (66/1), Deep Purple (66/1)

 A Top 10 finish will be a bonus

Synchronised (8/1fav), Junior (12/1), West End Rocker (14/1), Ballabriggs (14/1), Becauseicouldntsee (20/1), Planet Of Sound (33/1), Weird Al (40/1), Black Apalachi (50/1), Mon Mome (50/1), State Of Play (50/1), Vic Venturi (66/1), Swing Bill (80/1), Hello Bud (80/1), Tatenen (100/1), Midnight Haze (125/1), Abbeybraney (150/1)

 Will do well to get round.

On His Own (14/1), Calgary Bay (33/1), Neptune Collonges (33/1), Quiscover Fontaine (50/1), Arbor Supreme (66/1), Any Currency (80/1), Viking Blond (100/1), Tharawaat (125/1), Our Island (150/1), Neptune Equester (150/1), Smoking Aces (150/1), Ballyvasey (150/1), In Compliance (150/1)

Irish Grand National 2012

The Irish Grand National is a Grade A Handicap run over 3m5f at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday. Whilst the trends aren't as strong as in the British Grand National, we still have a good set of trends to analyse.

10-Years Trends
10/10     Every winner carried less than 10-13 in weight. Yes weight is important in marathon trips and we have to dismiss the top weights here.
10/10     Every winner was rated between 121 and 136 by the official handicapper. This will rule out those bad horses at the bottom of the racecard.
10/10     Every winner had won a Chase over 2m5f or more. 8 had won over 3 miles or more. Some trainers run 2 milers in this and they can't win. I'd rather my horses had won over 3 miles. Organisedconfusion (2011) and Hear The Echo (2008) had only won over 2m5f, so we have to treat with caution.

10/10     Every winner had raced in less than 12 Chases, no exposed chasers please.
10/10     Every winner had previously run to a RP Chase Rating of 135 or more.
10/10     Every winner had won a Chase on a Right-Handed course
9/10     Most winners had run in a Handicap Chase worth £42,000 or more. Numbersixvalvede (2005) had contested a £34,000 chase. Horses that win this have to be thought of as a decent standard of Chaser.
9/10     Had contested a 3 mile Chase. You'd think this was a given, but surprisingly not. 6 year-old Organisedconfusion did not.
9/10     Had run within the last 51 days. 7 weeks. Fitness is key in these races and only Hear The Echo was off for 87 days.
9/10     Were aged 6-9yo. Granit D'estruval (2004) was 10. Organisedconfusion was 6. 8 of the winners were 7-9yos, although 6yos have won one and placed twice from only 9 qualifiers.

Trainers:
Michael Hourigan (0-6-12) has an excellent record, with 6 of his horses getting place money from only 12 entrants. Arthur Moore (1-3-14) and Dessie Hughes (1-3-17) are the best trainers with a win. Ferdy Murphy and Jonjo O'Neill both have a win and a place from 4 entrants form over the North Sea.

Removals:
Carrying more than 10-13:
Removes: Roi Du Mee, Magnaminity, Osana, Allee Garde, Catch Me, Lastoftheleaders and Western Charmer

Rated out of the 121-136 band:
Removes: Aigle D'Or and Gift Of Dgab

Failed to win a Chase over 2m5f or more:
Removes: Four Commanders, Prince Erik, Shakervilz, Whatuthink, Whodoyouthink, Deal Done, Out Now and Raptor


Ran in more than 12 Chases:
Leanne, The Last Derby, Paddy Pub and Saddlers Storm

Best RP Chase Rating of less than 135:
Glam Gerry

Failed to win a Chase on a Right-Handed Course
Alfie Sherrin and Start Me Up

Also Consider removing these:
Not run in a Handicap Chase worth £42,000 or more:
Lion Na Bearnai, Ninetieth Minute.
Not run in a 3m Chase:
Ninetieth Minute
Last Ran more than 51 days ago:
Groody Hill and Cross Appeal
Aged 10 or more:
Lion Na Bearnai

Entries:
***** Perfect trendswise and must be seriously considered
SOME TARGET (25/1), ARABELLA BOY (25/1). Both are better on softer ground and the bet may be for Cross Appeal who is decent on all ground conditions, however the horses that have acted on faster ground basically aren't good enough to win the event.

****   Don't rule out. Has a good e/w chance.
Groody Hill (10/1jfav), CROSS APPEAL (14/1)

***1/2  Just can't recommend a bet, but if they won, I wouldn't be surprised.
Four Commanders (10/1jfav), Ninetieth Minute (14/1), Alfie Sheerin (14/1) Start Me Up (20/1), Paddy Pub (25/1), Lion Na Bearnai (33/1), The Last Darby (50/1),

***     Don't think they can win, but place money is not out of the question.
Glam Gerry (20/1), Magnaminity (28/1), Leanne (28/1), Shakervilz (28/1), Prince Erik (33/1), Saddler's Storm (33/1)

**       Will do well to get round
Allee Garde (14/1),  Raptor (33/1), Roi Du Mee (40/1), Whatuthink (50/1)

*         Has no chance.
Lastoftheleaders (16/1), Aigle D'Or (20/1), Catch Me (20/1), Western Charmer (20/1), Gift Of Dgab (25/1),  Out Now (25/1), Deal Done (33/1), Osana (40/1),  Whodoyouthink (50/1)

Grand National 2012 - Trends analysis

The Grand National is the easiest horse race to find a big-priced winner in..!!. that's because the same sort of horses win it every year.It's true, this year looks a pretty good renewal with some very good horses including the Gold Cup winner, Synchronised, heading the weights at the moment and with Ballabriggs, last years champ, back for more.

Every winner has conformed to the following trends since Miinnehoma won for comedian Freddie Star in 1993.


Aged 8-12
No horse outside of this age range has won a Grand National since 1940 when Bogskar (aged 7) took the honours. The last horse older than 12 was Sergeant Murphy (13yo) who won in 1923. This year, horses younger than 7 years old are banned from taking part. It's a sensible approach as they are too young and inexperienced to run well over the course and distance.

The actual sweet spot for Grand National winners is either 9 or 10 year olds. 8 year-olds haven't really developed the stamina reserves to win over 41/2 miles, and horses older than 10 are on the downgrade and whilst they have sufficient stamina, may lack the pace to go on and win.

Only one 8 year-old has won the race since 1992, Bindaree (in 2002).
The only 11 year old since 1994 was Red Marauder in 2001 in the race with only 4 finishers on heavy ground.
Amberleigh House won well as a 12 year old in 2004, the only one that old since 1995.

The bottom line is 13 of the last 16 winners were aged 9 or 10 years old. They are generally at their peak at this age and have the correct balance of speed and stamina to win the race. Don't rule out the 8 year olds or 11/12 year olds until the shortlist needs trimming some more.



Winning form over at least 3 miles
Not since Gay Trip won the race in 1970 has the winner previously not won a race over at least 3 miles. It seems logical that if you haven't won a race at 3 miles or more, you won't win one at 41/2 miles.


Carrying less than 11st 6lbs
The best horse in the race will carry the biggest weight, but they don't often win the Grand National. It's a huge burden to lump nearly 12 stone around 41/2 miles and it takes it toll. Grand National hero Red Rum (1977) was the last horse to carry more than 11-05 in the National and win. It was his 3rd win at the age of 12 and was a superb performance. In fact Red Rum (12-00 in 1974) is the only horse since Sundew in 1957 to lump more than 11-05 around the course in a winning cause. Since Phil Smith (handicapper) compressed the weights (top weight carries 11-10 now) and the race has attracted better quality horses, the bottom weights now carry a little more weight than they used to. The cut-off for this trend was 11-00, when the bottom weights carried just 10-00 or 10-01, but now that horse no. 40 maybe carrying 10-04 to 10-06, we have to up the weight a winning horse may carry so we don't miss him. We caught Don't Push It in 2010, who carried 11-05 to win because of this (but I ruled him out as he was so out of form). The next trend runs parallel with this one.


Officially Rated between 136-155
This trend will rule out many of the horses that the previous one does, but also catches out those really crap horses that used to run at the bottom of the handicap but now rarely get in the race, and can be used to dump these horses at the first declaration stage.



Must have run within the previous 49 days
It works so far, you may want to let off horses that are within a few days of this upper end of this. Rough Quest had a break of only 16 days in 1996 and Hedgehunter, the 49 days for the trend. Horses need to be race fit to win this and horses start losing their edge after a long break, either enforced or otherwise. We want a horse that is ready to race. State Of Play is hard to get right so his connections just take his chance in the race and he's finished 4th (109 days off) in 2009, 3rd (133d) in 2010 and 4th (364d) last year. If he'd been fitter for the race he'd have won one of them.


Had finished in the first 3 in one of his last 3 starts.
Every horse needs to be in some sort of form, not necessarily winning form as we don't want that pesky handicapper finding us out do we. Even the hopelessly out of form Mon Mome, in 2009, managed a 2nd in the January of that year.


Have run in at least 9 Chases
Horses need good jumping experience to win the Grand National. Every winner since Miinnehoma (9 Chase races) in 1994 has run in at least 10 Chases. You may want to give those with 9 races under their belt, like Synchronised, the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't want to be affording Junior (8) the same.


Have won a chase worth at least £17,000
You still need to be classy enough to win the National. Bad horses still don't win. Every winner has won a Chase worth at least this amount of money. The horses at the lower end of the handicap will need to be scrutinised for this trend.


Have raced between 3 and 6 times in the season
Missed prep races, setbacks in training, bad planning and over-raced horses will find it tough to win the Grand National. Ballabriggs has only the 1 run since last year's win and this isn't good enough. He had a very hard race last year and it may have taken a while for him to be in the shape to race, but he's only had the one run this season and faded after looking the winner in the run in. He'll benefit for the run but he'll need a lot more with a heavy weight to lump round too. Miinnehoma had only 2 races in the 1993-94 season before his win. Every winner since has had 4-6 runs, until Ballabriggs (with 3) broke that, but was so strong on all the other trends he was a must bet.


Conclusion:
Winning Profile
Aged 8-12
Won over more than 3 miles 
Carrying less than 11-05
OR between 136-155
Last run between 16-49 days ago
Top 3 finish in his last 3 runs
9+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £17k to the winner
Between 3-6 runs that season

If you want to refine it further

Perfect Profile
Aged 9 or 10
Carrying less than 11-01
10+ Chases
Between 4-6 runs that season

These are the trends that sort the Winners from the also-rans. Horse do wind-up in the places that fail some of the trends. We want to find the winner, even if we are backing each-way.

Good luck, i'll be back next week  to go through the entrants at the 5 day declaration stage.

Cheltenham Day 4 - Friday 16th March

Friday 16th March - Day 4

1.30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle (4yo) – 2m1f – Grade 1
The race for future Champion Hurdlers. In recent years the winner hasn't even been on the racecourse until the new year. Since the introduction of the Freed Winter 7 years ago, the winner has come from the first day of the betting, possibly meaning the days of big-priced winners have gone

10 Year Trends

10/10 Last run was between 20 and 55 days ago. I'm not sure I want do get rid of Asaid because he ran 19 days ago.

Removes: Dysios

9/10 Had run in 2-6 Hurdles. Zarkandar had raced only once last year so we don't want to be getting rid of too hastily

Removes: His Excellency

9/10 Have won last time out. Celestial Halo was 2^nd, but had won their penultimate race.

Removes: Arctic Reach, Countrywide Flame, Hollow Tree, Mattoral, Ut De Sivola, Wingtips

9/10 Had won 50% or more of their Hurdles. All winners since the Fred Winter came into existence.

Removes: Dodging Bullets, Hisabaat

9/10 From a Group 1 sire. Soldatino (2010) was not, but the percentage play is to find one.

Removes: Baby Mix (fav), Urbain De Sivola

8/10 Had achieved a RP Rating of 127 or more. The last 7 achieved this so its getting stronger.

Removes: West Brit

7/10 A SP of not more than 9/1. The last 7 since the Fred Winter started in 2005.

Removes: Asaid

7/10 Had made his hurdling début after December 1^st. The trend is for the winners to début later in the season, Zarkandar, just 3 weeks before this race. 7 of the last 8 debuted later rather than earlier. This will only be used to whittle down 6 horses into something more manageable.

Removes: Balder Succes,

Selections:

If we assume that Darroun (12/1) is too big in the betting, then we are left with 4.

all shorties.

The 2 that didn't win last time out are Sadler's Risk and Shadow Catcher and I'm leaving them off.

GRUMETI (7/1) seems to be a bit weak in the market this morning. Not sure why, he's pretty perfect but,

PEARL SWAN (7/1), who was disqualified last time we saw him, beat Grumeti earlier in the season.

2.05 - Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle – 2m1f - Grade 3

Another great quality handicap to get my teeth into. I never pick the winner though, be warned. Master Of The Arts is a non-runner.

10 Year Trends

10/10 Had achieved a RP Hurdle rating of 129 or more on a Left-Handed course.

Removes: Ted Spread, Ifyouletmefinish, Ingleby Spirit and Court In Session.

9/10 Officially Rated between 128-144. Sporazene was 151 in 2004. Need to get these top rated horses beaten, they aren't set up to win.

Removes: Starluck, Clerk's Choice and Moon Dice.

9/10 Ran between 4 and 16 times over Hurdles. All at least 4 times. The last 9 fitted this stat.

Removes: Magnifique Etoile and Via Galilei.

9/10 Weight of less than 11-02. The last 8 were less than 11-00. However the bottom weight is 10-08, so I don't really want to be relying on it and will find something else to add for a removal.

9/10 Get rid of horses of bigger than 20/1. Silver Jaro (50/1) shocked punters 4 years ago. I will couple it with the weight-factor. Of course these sort of horses can place so I'm not ruling out a good run, it's just I want winners.

Removes: Ubi Ace, Desert Cry, The Bull Hayes, Dee Ee Williams, Alderwood, Lifestyle, Alarazi

8/10 Days off ranges from 13-68 days but the percentage is less than 37 days, but I want to take on horses out of the full zone to be sure.

Removes: Dirar and Snap Tie

7/10 5 and 6 year olds have won 7 of these. Certainly get rid of 10yo's or more.

Removes: Hell's Bay

Selections:

We have 8 runners to consider. Sailor's Warn (20/1) (11-05) is a little high in the weights. The same can be said of RAYA STAR (11/1), however he's a lot more consistent and won the Ladbroke Hurdle in December, and was 3^rd in the Betfair Hurdle in February, the form being franked by Get Me Out Of Here and a running-on Zarkandar in the Champion Hurdle.

Local Hero (20/1) is German-Bred (0 wins from 64 in handicaps) and is no Raya Star.. out. Plan A (25/1) is a nice weight and was fav for the Fred Winter last year, so I won't rule him out of the places but has a few niggles trends-wise. If Paul Nicholls runners were in form (2 wins at fest and too many below-par runs) then Edgardo Sol (33/1) could be considered, but is now ignored.

The final 3 are all bets in my opinion.

Olofi (11/1), consistent this season and well fancied. But runs well without winning. Certainly one for the placepot .

REDARA (20/1) Been backed since yesterday and could be steamed a lot shorter later on. Has the perfect profile.

Citizenship (8/1) looks in great form and could be ahead of the handicapper. He's a worthy favourite, and a fair price, but Is too short for my each-way tendencies.

2 Bets but 4 fancies.

40. - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Spa Novices Hurdle – 3m – Grade 1

Berties Dream made a certain West London pub dust off their champagne selection a couple of years ago, hopefully we can find another winner this year. Strong trends but only 7 renewals so far.

7-Year Trends

7/7 Achieved an RP Rating of 139 or more. No need to worry about a few in this field.

Removes: American Spin, Benheir, Big Occasion, Dawn Commander, Fill The Power, Fox Appeal, Grand Vision, Hard To Swallow, Meister Eckhart, Sivola De Sivola, The Bosses Cousin, The Druids Nephew and Tour Des Champs

7/7 Had run in at least 3 Hurdles.

Removes: Rocky Creek with just 2 runs, however he does hit every other trend.

7/7 Finished Top 4 in a Graded Hurdle in his last run.

Removes: Lovcen and Sea Of Thunder

Selections:

We are left with 4 runners, who pass all the remaining trends.

Boston Bob (6/4) is a very short favourite, he isn't a bet but a likely winner.

2^nd favourite Mount Benbulen (13/2) is short too and I expect him to run a big race.

BRINDISI BREEZE (11/1, bet365) is a good e/w bet, he's also 11/2 “without fav”

My e/w bet is IPSOS DU BERLAIS (20/1) (16/1 w/o fav) who was behind Boston Bob and Mount Benbulen at Navan but I remember Berties Dream being the same type.

20. - Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase – 3m21/2f – Grade 1

It's going to be immense. Long Run should outstay Kauto Star up the hill IF he jumps well enough. There plenty of good but not great horses in this so lets try and find a bet.

10 Year Trends

10/10 Had between 2 and 5 seasonal runs

Removes: Burton Port and Diamond Harry

10/10 Has a Grade 1 Chase win

Removes: Carruthers, China Rock, Knockara Beau, Midnight Chase, The Giant Bolster, The Midnight Club, Time For Rupert and Weird Al

9/10 Rated within 8lbs of the Top Rated horse (Long Run 187)

Removes: Quel Esprit, Synchronised and What A Friend

Selections:

The 2 favourites remain. LONG RUN (2/1fav) to beat Kauto Star (7/2).

Weird Al and Synchronised would be e/w bets if 12/1 or bigger.

Bets:

DIAMOND HARRY (w/o big 2) 18/1e/w with PaddyPower.

WHAT A FRIEND (w/o Long Run) 20/1ew with Coral

4.00 - Christies' Foxhunters' Chase – 3m21/2f – Class 2

The Gold Cup for amateur jockeys. No Baby Run this year. NR is Theatre Diva

10-Year Trends

10/10 Won at 3 miles or more.

Removes: Chapoturgeon (fav), Picaroon

9/10 Had an RPR of 130 or more.

Removes: Blackstaff, Bradley, Count Salzar, Enter Paradise, Not Before Eight, Rowdy Rampage, My Flora

9/10 Aged 6-10. Earthmover was 13 in 2004. 9/10 yo's have won 6.

Removes: Cloudy Lane, Eleazer, Keenan's Future

7/10 Rated within 11lbs of the RP Top Rated (Chapoturgeon).

6/10 Won last time out. 2 more were top 3. Serious consideration to remove horses that fail the last 2.

Removes: Herons Well, Surenaga

Selections:

10 left. Dumping Roulez Cool (not run for 2 years). Blackstaff (23lbs from Top Rated). With Paul Nicholls out of sorts, I have to leave Just Amazing out. Salsify (6/1cfav) is a little short to bet with but is perfect trends-wise. Turko was well thrashed by Chapoturgeon, and at 10 is going backwards. Boxer Georg has little for over 3 miles and is ignored too. Oscar Delta is out of form and is passed over. On The Fringe (9/1) is now a little short for e/w backers but is a contender. Now we have 2 e/w bets. MERCHANT ROYAL (14/1) and BARBERS SHOP (former Gold Cup hopeful) (14/1). Both are perfect and are a nice prices.

4.40 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle – 2m41/2f – Class 2

Just 3 runnings of this but from limited trends, we can give a couple of tentative small e/ws.

3-Year Trends

3/3 All 3 were 5 or 6 years olds. I can definitely remove any older than 7.

Removes: I'msingingtheblues, Like minded, Wolf Moon, Gormanstown Cuckoo, Art Professor

3/3 Officially Rated between 133-137. Tight I know, but it's a start.

Removes: Molotof (145)

3/3 Pre-race RP Rating of 137 or more

Removes: Toner D'Oudairies, Arab League, Oscar Nominee, Rigidity

3/3 Raced between 3-9 times over Hurdles. Get rid of exposed types.

Removes: Attaglance, Pateese, Street Entertainer, Ski Sunday, Bocciani (also German-bred)

Selections:

9 left. A couple of e/w bets hopefully. Tornado Bob is too high for handicaps at Cheltenham, (even with 3lbs claimed) Empire Levant is a Nicholls horse so is left alone. Bourne (11/2) won easily last time and can still be ahead of the handicapper, but is too short for me even if he is a good thing.

Headgear is a no-no in festival handicaps (except Pipe), so out go Knight Pass

Nigel Twiston-Davies has terrible handicap record (3 wins in 75), so bye-bye to Changing Times

I'm going to look towards Nicky Henderson as he's got the golden arm this week. He runs OPEN HEARTED (14/1) who fits the bill (also has Molotof and Oscar Nominee). David Pipe runs DAN BREEN (20/1) who is in form (good 2^nd last time). The other two are Grandads House (16/1) and Make A Track (14/1) who are good for the placepot.

Low stakes please!!!! :-D

5.15 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Handicap) – 2m1/2f – Grade 3

The get out stakes. Had the 1^st, 3^rd and 4^th in the trifecta last year. Hmmmmm.

French Opera keeps a lot of Henderson horses low in the handicap, so watch out for them. French Opera won't be winning though even with 5lbs off his back, every other

horse will be carrying less than 11 stone.

10-Year Trends

10/10 A win at 2m1f or more is essential

Removes: Toubab

10/10 Carrying less than 11 stone.

Removes: French Opera

9/10 Ran in less than 13 Chases. Always a decent cut-off for handicaps here. Certainly not more than 20, Oiseau De Nuit last year (who stays in)

Removes: Cornas (21), Renard (22) and De Boitron (27)

7/10 No more than 4 runs since August

7/10 A Course winner

7/10 Has festival form

Removing horses that fail all 3 of these.

Removes: King Edmund, Tara Royal, Lucky William and Ultimate

Other Considerations:

Non UK, French or Irish-Bred horses don't win Cheltenham handicaps,

Removes: Bellvano (Ger) and Idarah (USA)

Blinkers:

Kumbeshwar ran superbly at the festival last year but..... blinkers for Alan King.. out!!

Free World and Norther Bay are running from out of the handicap so I will let them go (although 3 winners did defy it)

Astracad is a Twiston-Davies horse (bad handicap record), so is ignored.

Selections:

Kid Cassidy (6/1fav)is too short and has no Cheltenham experience. Last years winner Oiseau De Nuit (14/1) with 28 runs, can run well but is no 40/1 shot this year. I have to oppose.

TANKS FOR THAT (14/1) is Henderson/Geraghty so could be shorter come the start as people look for a winner. He should be on the shortlist. ANQUETTA (28/1) is the Henderson 2^nd string but still hits all the trends you need, add to placepot. SLIEVEARDAGH (14/1) is ultra-consistent in Ireland and although has no course form has to be considered. ERADICATE (14/1) complete the hatrick of Henderson horses, but I've thought a lot about him all season and he's RP Top Rated if you like that sort of stuff. That's 4 for the lucky last..... I hope we don't need it.