Friday 8 April 2011

Grand National - Horse by Horse

1. Don't Push It (9/1fav). Last years winner and new favourite. Carries too much weight and is out of form this year.
2. Tidal Bay (40/1). Too much weight, but may be staying on late on for a place.
3. What A Friend (14/1). 4th in Gold Cup. Grade 1 winner last year, but surely carrying too much weight. Would be a fairytale for Sir Alex.
4. Vic Venturi (50/1). Always looked the right sort to win and should be up at the front, but too high in the weights now and out of form. Place prospects if he gets round.
5. Majestic Concorde (33/1). Hasn't run for 3 months and too inexperienced for this, and I haven't even menitoned the weight its carrying. Avoid
6. Or Noir De Somoza (66/1). French raider. No run for 11 weeks and too high in the weights and hasn't won over 3 miles... Avoid!!
7. Dooneys Gate (66/1). No run for 66 days and has won a decent race yet. Possible place prospects, but unlikely.
8. Big Fella Thanks (18/1). 6th, 2 years ago when too young, then 4th last year. Should be up there but form figures of 2P44 this seson will have to be improved on to win this.
9. The Tother One (80/1). Only 3 runs this season is a negative and with no run for 10 weeks, will have to be ultra-fit to win.
10. Ballabriggs (18/1). Geared towards this race all season. Only 3 seasonal runs (all in 2011) is the main negative but a big run expected.
11. The Midnight Club (11/1). Ruby Walsh on board, but is inexperienced. Only 2 runs this season is big negative.
12. Niche Market (22/1). looks the sort to win this, not in form but excuses for that (all good Class 1s). Pulled Up last year, but Irish GN winner in 2009.
13. Silver By Nature (18/1). Won the GN trial at Haydock but only 3 runs this season. Big chance if he can overcome that trend.
14. BACKSTAGE (NAP) (14/1). The most perfect horse in the race. Now all he has to do is WIN. Trainer won this in 2007 and jockey won in 1999.
15. Chief Dan George (50/1). Nice horse, fell at Cheltenham early on. A little on old side but good place chances.
16. Calgary Bay (40/1). Was decent a couple of years ago but not the same horse since. Off track for 10 weeks is his only negative.
17 Killyglen (66/1). Another perfect horse, only problem is he hasn't done too much and his last win was at this meeting 2 years ago.
18. Oscar Time (14/1). 2nd in last season's Irish National, only 10 Chase starts barely gets him in and only 3 runs this season.. Better prospects elsewhere.
19. Quinz (18/1). Good looking horse and may win it next year, but too inexperienced to win this...probably
20. Becauseicouldntsee (33/1). Not good enough even without being inexperienced and without a run in 3 months. Add his only 3m win was in a Point to Point in Ireland and we have an early faller in the making.... if it wins, I'll eat my proverbial hat.
21. Comply Or Die (66/1). 2008 winner and 2009 R/Up. 12th last year and 12yo now. Likely to finish but far behind the winner.
22. Quolibet (200/1). An inexperienced horse that hasn't won over 3 miles. Pray you don't get this in the sweepstake.
23. Grand Slam Hero (100/1). Surely outclassed, and ran plenty of times over the summer. Off the track for 2 months rounds off why he can't win.
24. State Of Play (33/1). Placed in both his Grand National runs. Not run since then and fitness taken on trust. No reason why he can't be up there, but he can't win it can he?
25. King Fontaine (100/1). Trend perfect (just) and a good 5th at Cheltenham. Only 9 Chase starts (4 wins) means he's inexperienced and only won an £18,000 race. Place chances?
26. In Compliance (66/1). Was potentially a very good horse a couple of years ago, but off track with injuries. Better over 2 1/2m and not this slog.
27. Hello Bud (40/1). Won the Becher Chase in November (over these fences) and former winner of Scottish GN. 5th in last year's GN. But 13yo now, so that rules him out and only 3 runs this season (off track 12 weeks) big negatives on top.
28. West End Rocker (33/1). Won't rule this one out. Fits all the trends, but 3 runs this season a small negative.
29. Santa's Son (200/1). Might finish around Christmas time. No wins over 3 miles and 7 runs this season is over the optimum.
30. Bluesea Cracker (25/1). No female winner since 1951, but she did win the Irish GN last season @ 25/1 so trip should be ok. 3 runs since and out of the frame each time is not what a Grand National winner looks like though.
31. That's Rhythm (150/1). Off the track for 4 months and has yet to win a decent quality Chase. Add in form of 059 in his last 3 starts and you can see why he won't be taking home any money this time.
32. Surface To Air (100/1). 1 run since Jun 2008 (when he won the Summer National at Uttoxeter (4m1f). This is only his 5th Chase start. These are stunning negatives. Might be a contender if he had more experience.
33. Piraya (200/1). Out of form and doesn't stay more than 3 miles let alone this. 13th last year about a lap behind.
34. Can't Buy Time (100/1). Tony McCoy doesn't fancy him even though he does fit many of the trends. Badly out of form, so winning this would be a huge shock. Avoid!!
35. Character Building (33/1). Nina Carberry on board and a grey. Likely to start shorter than this at 4.15 tomorrow with all those housewives on it. A staying on 7th last year. Now an 11yo, a slight negative, but that's it's only negative so may get placed if raced closer to the pace.
36. Ornais (125/1). Too inexperienced after being off the track for over 2 years until Feb. Can't win.
37. Arbor Supreme (20/1). 2nd to The Midnight Club in Feb. Hits all the trends apart from having 4+ runs this season. Decent place claims.
38. Royal Rosa (100/1). A 12yo now and retiring after the race. Would be a fairytale end to a decent career, but off for 3 months rules the old git out of the running.
39. Skippers Brig (33/1). Beat Ballabriggs and Chief Dan George last time but that was completely different to this. Not won a Chase worth £17,000 or more is a big negative, and only 3 runs this season is not good either. May get a place.
40. Golden Kite (80/1). Hits all the major trends, but has run 7 times since last April. Would be a shock if he won, but there are worse horses out there.

Grand National Trends 2011



We all know by now that the winner of the Grand National hits certain trends year after year and isn't the "lottery" we are told it is. Lets start with an easy one.


Age:
The Grand National horses need to have stamina and a little speed to win, younger horses don't have the stamina built up yet and the older horses get round but far too slowly, so thats why the since 1940, 8-12 year olds have won every race.
The last 7 year old to win was Bogskar in 1940. The last 13 year old was Sergeant Murphy in 1923. In fact the last 6 winners were aged 9-10, but for now we want horses aged 8-12.
Bye Bye to Quinz (7), Quolibet (7), Hello Bud (13)

Stamina:
The last horse without a win at 3 miles or more was Gay Trip in 1970. If you haven't won at 3 miles, how do you win at 4 1/2 miles.
Laters Or Noir De Somoza,  In Compliance, Santa's Son, Piraya



Class:
Right. Class is important. Party Politics (1992) was the last horse that hadn't won a race worth £17,000 to the winner. Horses must have some sort of 'Big Race' form. Bad horses don't win.
Horses not good enough are  Dooneys Gate, Becauseicouldn'tsee,  Grand Slam Hero, That's Rhythm
and Skippers Brig

Form:
You must have some sort of form to win the National. The last 21 winners had at least a Top 3 finish in one of their last 3 runs.
This now rules out last year's winner Don't Push It, Vic Venturi, Big Fella Thanks, Niche Market, Bluesea Cracker and Can't Buy Time

Fitness:
The last 21 winners all had a race under their belts within the last 49 days. Horses from a longer lay off are sharp enough for this race.
Out go Majestic Concorde, The Tother One, Calgary Bay, State Of Play and Royal Rosa.


Experience:
You need to have jumped a fair few fences to win the National. I'm going to say 9 races or more. This rules out the favourite The Midnight Club, Surface To Air and Ornais

Weight:
Finally we get to the tricky one. Weight.  Horses carrying more than 11 stone just couldn't win the National but that was when you had lots of horses running off bottom weight of 10 stone. Now that the quality of runners has improved, and the bottom weights are bigger than 10-00, 11-00+ winners are coming into it. This years bottom weight is 10-02, which is lower than normal and no horse has won carrying more than 11-05 since Red Rum in 1977. So rule out horses carrying more than 11-05.
Good-bye to Tidal Bay and What A Friend, far too good for this race.

This leaves us with 12 good chances. I want to get that down to something manageable so I'm going to add another stat in.

Winners of this race have raced at least 4 times in the season. Horses with an interupted campaign just aren't able to tun to the best of their ability and are founds wanting at the end.
Out go horses with 3 runs Ballabriggs, Silver By Nature, Oscar Time, Comply Or Die, West End Rocker and Arbor Supreme. Golden Kite has actually run 'too many' times but a few of them were in the summer and he's border line. He's also 100/1 or so, so unlikely to win.

Back to the Age thing. I really want to be on the side of 9 & 10yo's. So reluctantly I'm chucking out Chief Dan George and Character Building, who are both 11.

This leaves 3 horses who have 'perfect' profiles...
Backstage (14/1, Stan James & William Hill), Killyglen (66/1, Bet365, Skybet, Vcbet, Coral) and King Fontaine (100/1, totesport)

There you have it.....  12 on the list and 3 shortlisted 'winners'.
Most bookies online are going 5 places. vcbet are 6 places. Avoid Betfred, Coral and William Hill as they are all paying 4 (I imagine Ladbrokes will too). If you are betting in the shop, please take a price at the counter. Most of the time it will be bigger than the Starting Price.

Good luck

Tuesday 15 March 2011

Cheltenham Day 1, 2011



CHELTENHAM DAY 1, Tuesday 15th March 2011

1.30 Stan James Supreme Novices' Hurdle
2m ½f, Grade 1, £100,000

Trends:
10/10 Won at least 50% of Hurdle starts
9/10 RPR of at least 132
9/10 Raced within the last 45 days
9/10 Won last race
8/10 Rated within 12lbs of RPR Top Rated (Cue Card)

(5/5) Magen's Star, Spirit Son
(4/5) Al Ferof, Gibb River, Rathlin, Recession Proof, Sprinter Sacre, Zaidpour, Marsh Warbler

Betting: Cue Card 5/2fav, Spirit Son 6/1, Al Ferof 10/1, Sprinter Sacre 10/1, Zaidpour 10/1, Recession Proof 11/1,
Others: Magen's Star 22/1, Gibb River 25/1, Marsh Warbler 25/1, Rathlin 50/1

Cue Card fails 2 of the trends, having been beaten by Champion Hurdle favourite last time. I don't think that's fair, I'm more concerned that he hasn't run for 3 months. He should still be the best horse in the race.
Spirit Son has done nothing wrong and hits all 5 trends, however Nicky Henderson hasn't won this since 1992, this could be his best chance and there must be more to come from Spirit Son.
Magen's Star, a mare hits all the trends but surely isn't good enough for this.
Al Ferof, runner-up to Cue Card in last year's Bumper ,isn't good enough in my eyes and is far too short now.
Recession Proof, impressive winner at Newbury hasn't done anything wrong, but whether he 'gets' Cheltenham is an unknown as all his runs have been on flat tacks.
Zaidpour was the great Irish hope but disappointed in his last 2 runs.
Sprinter Sacre needs to improve to win this, and is another Henderson horse.
Gibb River has a squeak each way at a price, but I'm not at all confident. The 3rd Henderson horse.

Overall, there are no each-way bets advised here. I think Cue Card will win if he's fit enough, and the places filled by Spirit Son and Recession Proof.

Bets:
win: Cue Card, 5/2



2.05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
2m, Grade 1, £130,000

Trends:10/10 SP not bigger than 9/1.
10/10 Aged 5-8
9/10 Finished in top 2 in all completed Chases (10/10 top 3)
9/10 Rated within 12lbs of the RPR Top-Rated
9/10 RPR of at least 145
9/10 A Best RPR Hurdle rating of at least 143
8/10 3-5 runs over fences
8/10 Won a Novice Chase over 2m-2m1f

(8/8) Finian's Rainbow, Medermit
(7/8) Captain Chris, Ghizao, Realt Dubh

Betting: Medermit 3/1fav, Ghizao 4/1, Finian's Rainbow 5/1, Captain Chris 8/1, Realt Dubh 9/1

The Arkle, for 2m Novice Chasers, seems to go to one of the horses at the front of the betting and the trends don't disagree.
I think Captain Chris is better over further and am surprised he was entered in this.
Finian's Rainbow has won every race but hasn't beaten anything of note in any of them.
Realt Dubh is better with cut in the ground.
Which leaves Medermit and Ghizao to battle it out. I'm with Medermit as Ghizao hasn't run this year. Still looking for that big each-way selection, can't find one, maybe in the handicaps later.

Bets:
win: Medermit, 3/1



2.40 Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase
3m 110y, Grade 3, £75,000
(formally the William Hill Trophy)

Trends:
10/10 Aged 7-10
(no horse aged 11+ placed since 1997)
10/10 Carried less than 10-13
10/10 OR of 129-143
(no winner rated 150+ since 1983)
9/10 Won over 3m or more
9/10 Finished in top 3 in either of last 2 starts
9/10 Top 4 finish last time. (The first 3 in 2010 had all won LTO (from 5 horses)
8/10 No more than 11 chases

(7/7) Adams Island, Slippers Percy
(6/7) Bensalem, Sunnyhillboy, The Rainbow Hunter, Wolf Moon

Betting: Bensalem 6/1jfav, Sunnhillboy 6/1jfav, Great Endeavour 7/1, Reve De Sivola 10/1
Others: Wolf Moon 14/1, Blazing Bailey 14/1Adams Island 20/1, The Rainbow Hunter 25/1, Chief Dan George 25/1, Slippers Percy 66/1

The trends are suggesting you are looking for a horse that has form over 3 miles, carrying less than 11 stone and isn't exposed. But I don't think Slippers Percy, Adams Island and Wolf Moon (from out of the handicap) are good enough.
Sunnyhillboy is a nice weight but is unproven beyond 2m 5f.
Great Endeavour beat Sunnyhillboy in the Byrne Plate last year but is carrying too much weight and again is unproven at the distance.
Bensalem seemed to get lost over fences and is a very short price for this
Reve De Sivola good hurdler, average chaser IMHO.
Blazing Bailey is the best horse in the race, but can't lug top weight and win this... well I don't think so anyway
Chief Dan George won last year but carries too much weight now and is an 11yo which goes against him
The horse I'm interested in is The Rainbow Hunter. Unlucky at Sandown last time when beaten in the run in (that's why he's not 7/7 in the trends), he has a nice weight and is definitely value. I'm a little worried about his lack of 'Class' but he's only had 5 races of the big obstacles and is open to improvement

Bet:
E/W: The Rainbow Hunter, 25/1



3.20 Stan James Champion Hurdle
2m ½f, Grade 3, £370,000

Trends:10/10 Ran within last 51 days
9/10 Aged 6-9
9/10 10-25 runs over hurdles
9/10 Pre-race RPR of at least 156
8/10 Won a Grade 1 Hurdle or Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle
8/10 Top Speed figure of at least 152
8/10 Rated within 7lbs of the RPR Top-rated
8/10 Won LTO

(8/8) Hurricane Fly
(7/8) Peddlers Cross

Betting: Menorah 4/1jfav, Hurricane Fly 4/1jfav, Peddlers Cross 9/2, Oscar Whisky 9/1, Dunguib 10/1, Khyber Kim 12/1

I can't decide what to do. My heart says Peddlers Cross, head says Hurricane Fly and there's Menorah too.

Hurricane Fly is classy, but only beats Solwhit and Thousand Stars, so far. His sire is Montjeu, who has never had a winner at Cheltenham and of course he's never run in the UK.
I really fancy Peddlers Cross to be honest and can't find fault in his form. If Cue Card wins the first then Menorah will start favourite after beating him in December but I think he's short enough already. If Hurricane Fly wins then Thousand Stars come into the reckoning as an each way bet.
Of the others, Dunguib would be a threat if it was softer and he was in better form, Oscar Whisky is too short, Khyber Kim seems to have lost his way but could be worth backing in-running as he will be held-up. Mille Chief has a bit of class about him but this could be too soon in his career for him. Overturn will make it a pacy race and it will be the best race of the festival. Enjoy, whoever you back.

Bets:
Win: Peddlers Cross, 9/2



4.00 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase
3m 7f, £40,000

Trends:6th year of this race, so trends are not to be over-analysed.
6/6 Winners were trained in Ireland (4 by Enda Bolger)
6/6 Won over 3 miles or more
6/6 OR of 126+
5/6 Won at least 1 of their last 2 outings (last year's winner,
A New Story didn't)
5/6 Won a Cross Country race either at Cheltenham or Punchestown (last year's winner hadn't)
(5/5) Garde Champetre
(4/5) L'Ami, A New Story, Another Jewel

Betting: Garde Champetre 5/1fav, L'Ami 13/2, Maljimar 13/2, Sizing Australia 8/1, A New Story 11/1, Another Jewel 16/1, Gullible Gordon 16/1

What a horrible race his is this year. Last year I picked out A New Story just before the race, this year I'm going to spend no time at all on this race as I can't find an edge.

Garde Champetre should be up there and is probably the worthy favourite, no-one else has winning form and only 4 horses have won a big Cross-Country at Cheltenham or Punchestown.
L'Ami is good but not as good as the favourite
Sizing Australia can't beat either of these.
Maljimar is far too short without a win past 2m5f.
A New Story is up 6lbs on last year's win and is a third of the price. Has a chance, but not going to carry my money this year.
Another Jewel was on my shortlist last year but is out of form. He's only win was in the Punchestown Cross Country Chase 14 months ago.
Gullible Gordon is English trained, by Paul Nicholls, and that is a terrible statistic to break. English trainers are 0/50 in the race and Nicholls 0/12. But he has a win this season over 3m3f and if he gets round has place chances.

Bets: (tentative)
E/W: Gullible Gordon, 16/1



4.40 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle
2m 4f, Grade 2, £70,000

Quevega has won both renewals of this and is 11/10 fav again.

Betting: Quevega evsfav, Sparky May 9/2, L'Accordioniste 10/1, Banjaxed Girl 14/1, La Vecchia Scuola 22/1, Alasi 33/1

Can't really oppose Quevega, but I will as she's too short for my liking.
Sparky May is also quality, I expect them to both be in the money.
But I've followed Banjaxed Girl and think she's pretty honest. Maybe the fact that Carole's Legacy (who beat her at Kempton) decides to race in the old William Hill Trophy at 2.40 suggests that Quevega will be too good. However I certainly think a place position is up for grabs.
Alasi was beaten by Banjaxed Girl at Sandown and crushed by Sparky May at Ascot which shows that we shouldn't be looking too far down the betting.
L'Accordioniste is unproven past 2m1f and I don't want her here.

Betting: (tentative)
E'W: Banjaxed Girl, 16/1



5.15 Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase
2m 4½ f, Listed Race, £80,000
(formerly the Jewson Novices' Chase run on the thursday)

Trends:
Only 6 renewals.
6/6 Carrying less than 11-02 (no qualifiers this year)
6/6 Top 2 LTO
6/6 Top 4 in all completed jump starts
6/6 Only 1 win over jumps (!!)
5/6 OR of 133-139 (only Divers (132) and Songe (140) miss this)
5/6 Won over 2m2f or further

(5/6) Definity, On Borrowed Wings, Rougham
(4/6) American Trilogy, Osric, Premier Sagas, Quo Video, Tharawaat, Tullamore Dew

Betting: Definity 7/1fav, Tullamore Dew 9/1, Quantitativeeasing 9/1, Divers 10/1, On Borrowed Wings 11/1,
Others: Premier Sagas 16/1, Tharawaat 16/1, Swing Bill 16/1, American Trilogy 18/1, Nadiya De La Vega 20/1, Rougham 20/1, Osric 22/1, Quo Video 80/1

The trends this year are fairly pointless. All horses carry over 11-03. Most are within the OR bracket. And with only 6 renewals I don't want to limit myself to Top 2 LTO etc. I want my horse to have won over 2m2f though, that's for certain.

Definity is a worthy favourite and definitely got stamina in abundance. Nicholls/Walsh combination probably cuts 2-3 pts off his odds though.
Tullamore Dew had my money last year, but that was 80/1+, can't say he'll be carrying it this year as he hasn't beaten too much chasing so far, but we know he handles the course.
Quantitativeeasing has his pick of 5 races and chose this one so connection must think it's his best chance but I opposed him last year and am against him again at the top level.
On Borrowed Wings could be an e/w bet if he goes to 12/1 or bigger in the morning, but at 11/1 isn't in my portfolio.
Rougham beat Osric last time but I think he needs more, not sure I want a front-runner here either.
Nadiya De La Vega was all the rage in the autumn, but was found wanting at this trip and is opposed.
Tharawaat hasn't done much wrong since Christmas but hsn't beaten much either.
Quo Video is surely outclassed
Swing Bill impressed me, whe beating a few Cheltenham sorts in February at Wincanton and a good 3rd behind Fine Parchment and Tail Of The Bank at Newbury last time could have put him in the frame for this. I definitely want to be on him at 16/1.

Bets:
Win: Definity, 7/1
E/W: Swing Bill 16/1


fingers crossed
VH