Scottish Grand National (Handicap Chase) – 4m 1/2f (Grade 3)

 Recently retired Merigo wins for the 2nd time.

Overview

2 weeks after we found a 66/1 winner of the Grand National in Auroras Encore we concentrate on the Scottish season finale at Ayr.

Auroras was a 5-star until I finalised my write up, when I found I'd included 2 weight-based stats and then tightened up a couple of bands to get rid of some definite non-winners. He was a very decent 3-star and we put him up as a lively outsider. We also had Teaforthree (3^rd) and Rare Bob (5^th). Oscar Time (4*) was 4^th @ 66/1 too.

Onto the Scottish version. Auroras Encore was an unlucky 2^nd last year in this but is now top weight after his Aintree heroics. Red Rum did the double some while ago and remains the last to do so. I don't expect Auroras Encore to follow up here.

The trends aren't as strong here as you would think for a 4m race, however there are plenty of things you need to to have achieved in my opinion to be successful in any distance handicap, especially on forecast heavy ground. Novice Beshabar won 2 years ago and confounded half of the trends. I doubt it will be repeated this season. Iris De Balme (66/1) won from 26lbs out of the handicap in 2008 but did achieve lots of the things you want in a probable winner.

10-year Trends

10/10 Aged between 8 and 11. Similar to the Grand National.

10/10 Ran within the last 57 days. Race fit please.

9/10 Top 6 in a handicap last time out, most at Cheltenham. Exception 2^nd in a Novice Chase.

9/10 Had won a Chase over 3 miles or more.

9/10 Had between 3 and 6 runs in the season. All had 3-7 runs.

9/10 Carried less than 10-10 in weight.

8/10 Officially Rated between 124 and 143.

8/10 Had between 10 and 24 Chases under their belt.

8/10 Had achieved a RP Rating of 137 or more over at least 3m1f.

8/10 Had won a Chase worth at least £15,000.

7/10 Had won a Class 2 Chase or better.

Contenders

Auroras Encore    16/1   ***

Looks like the handicapper has stopped him winning any more races. Aintree was his season and can't be backed here with confidence on bad ground. This will be his 9^th run of the season (7 since November)

Lion Na Bearnai   33/1   **

Irish National winner last season. So stamina not an issue, however he's only raced once this season (pulled-up) and is carrying too much weight.

Silver By Nature   33/1   **

Just 1 race in 2 years. Has long distance form on heavy that season, but too high in the weights and would take a lot to get him fit for this.

Our Mick    16/1   *

Still no win over 3 miles and is carrying too much weight. He's a 7yo with only 2 starts this season. Ran well at Cheltenham, but running well isn't winning.

Always Right    12/1   ****

Last seen winning at Kelso in a listed race, he was 3^rd in this 2 years ago. Older and wiser now and ticks many of the boxes a winner should, however I don't want my horses carrying 11-7 in heavy ground.

Rival D'Estruval    13/2f   ***

Favourite, but I don't want to be with a Novice Chaser with little experience of a big slog (fell in the 4m at Cheltenham), this high in the weights. His owners also had Merigo (2010 & 2012 winner)

Garleton   40/1   **

Too old, too high in the weights, etc. Never won at a level considered good enough to take this. 6^Th lasy year and will do well to match that.

Knockara Beau   25/1   ***

Pulled up last year, and there are too many slight doubts in his profile. Too high in the weights and is passed over.

Godsmejudge   10/1   **

There are worse 2-star horses around. He a Novice, but got a nice 3^rd in the 4m race at Cheltenham. But as a 7yo he's got it all to do to overcome his inexperience. Too high in the weights for me.

Rose Of The Moon   25/1   ***

Novice who hasn't achieved half what Godsmejudge has, yet is 1 star better off. Mainly due to the weight factor (only 10-13 plus another 3 off from his jockey) and he's a year older

Problema Tic   25/1   ***

Decent 4^th at Aintree, but most of his form is on good ground. Has won on soft but only over 2½m. Only a 7yo, his time may come in a year or two.

Tour Des Champs   33/1   **

The only 6 year old to have won since the race was first run at Ayr in 1966 was Earth Summit (1994) so he has it all to do. Its not as if he has everything else going for him either, so is easily overlooked.

Bradley   20/1   ***

I'm sure he's got a big race in him, but he keeps making too many mistakes. I don't like it that we haven't seen him since January, but there is little else to fault him on. His lack of race wins at this level is also counting against him, but he's almost a 4-star horse. Apprentice takes off a handy 7lbs as well.

Mister Marker   20/1   ***

Another with lots of little crosses in all the right boxes. However, as he's off the track a little too long (just 1 run in a year), is ok, but not ideal, weight-wise, and hasn't won at Class 2 or a race worth £15k. The odd one can be forgiven, but when they all add up, you get a horse that isn't ready to win this race.

Rigadin De Beauchene   20/1   *****

My first strong fancy. Smacks all the trends hard, but was pulled-up last time out, but he he did clobber 2 fences on the way round that and is easily forgiven that. Needs to step back up though.

Nuts N Bolts    16/1   **

Too young (7yo) and this Novice Chaser doesn't look a stayer just yet (just 2 chases at 3m1f). Looks out of his depth.

Big Occasion   8/1   ***

Another 6yo who should be overlooked. But he won the Midlands National over basically this trip on heavy so could be a big threat. Jockey takes off a useful 7lbs again. The race was only 5 weeks ago and it could well have left a mark on him. At 8/1 he's short enough to leave alone.

Relax   33/1   ***

Blundered at Cheltenham, so needs to brush up on his jumping. Doesn't look good enough at this distance and is overlooked.

Fill The Power   25/1   **

Never won on soft or worse nor over 3m or more. He's also 7. That is all.

Neptune Equester   16/1   *****

Hits all the major trends, but yet to win a Class 2 Chase. 3 runs this year and 2 wins, but they were over Hurdles and he flopped in the Grand National Trial at Haydock. Needs to step up again to win this.

Pentiffic   50/1   **

Just missed out on the Grand National by a place. Pulled-Up at Ascot the day after. Yet to prove he wants a marathon and is ignored.

Monsieur Cadou   16/1   ****

Only fails the minor trends, and has won a couple of races this season at 3m4f. Didn't seem to beat too much, however that isn't his fault and has place chances (or better).

Cool Operator   40/1   ***

Pulled-up in the Midlands National and just doesn't look the right sort of horse to win this.

Rebeccas Choice   20/1   ****

2^nd to Big Occasion in the Midlands National. That may have taken its toll, but that run came 4 weeks after another slog in February, so is a tough cookie. 7 runs this season isn't ideal and hasn't achieved much Class-wise or RPR-wise, but is foolish to ignore completely.

Lively Baron    33/1   *****

Steady sort who won't pull up many trees. I don't see the winner when I look at his profile, but the Scottish National throws up winners like this every so often. Worth taking a chance at the price, as his only 'blemish' is the Racing Post haven't rated him 137 over 3m1f or more (135 only). Lovely low weight and handles the ground over these distances.

Captain Americo   50/1   **

7lbs out of the handicap and hasn't won for 12 races. On the plus side is that he's consistent in marathons and could plod round into a place.

Conclusions

I keep changing my mind, but something has to win. Best to stick with the trends horses and RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE (20/1 general, boylesports pay 5 places) looks to have a stronger look about him than LIVELY BARON (33/1, totesport, Betfred, William Hill) but that is factored into the price. Although Neptune Equester (16/1) is also a top-rated horse, his price is now a bit skinny and while he has some sort of form on the ground, his trainer thinks he's better on better ground. Of the 4-stars, Always Right is too high in the weights, but I won't put you off Monsieur Cadou (16/1 Coral, William HIll) or Rebeccas Choice (20/1, general, Boyle and PaddyPower paying 5 places) if you fancy them. 2 bets only, but maybe 2 more for the combintion tricast.

Grand National winner?

John Smith's Grand National Handicap Chase – Grade 2 – 4m 31/2f

Horse                                      Age-Wgt (st-lbs) Odds Winning Chance

Imperial Commander     12-11-10     16/1    **

Gold Cup winner of 2010, who has had terrible injury problems since. Great comeback run in January but he's a 12yo carrying top weight and has just that run this season.

What A Friend                10-11-09     50/1    **

Seldom seen now and regressing from the Grade 1 winner he was a couple of years ago. Carrying too much weight, he was pulled-up last year.

Weird Al                         10-11-08      50/1   ***

A Grade 1 winner, who doesn't look the type to win this. Ran poorly this season and carries too much weight.

Quel Esprit                      9-11-07      50/1   **

A little inexperienced (just 9 chases), but a Grade 1 Chase winner last season. His only run was a disappointing 4th of 4 in February. The last of the 'big' weights.

Big Fella Thanks            11-11-06     40/1  ****

4^th and then 7^th in this race. Would be amazed if he then came back and won, but does hit all the main trends but is too high in the weights realistically.

Seabass                          10-11-06     11/1   ***

Katie Walsh became the best lady in National history with her 3^rd last year. The 110 yard decrease in distance will be in his favour as he blew up when looking the winner over the last. Careful build-up this season after winning all 5 races last year. Just 2 runs not ideal, and still not won under rules over 3 miles. Punished for last years performance by the handicapper and is thus too high in the weights.

Roberto Goldback          11-11-06     33/1  ****

Honest horse who won a decent handicap in the autumn. A bit too high in the weights for me and this trip may be too far for him, however he passes the main trends.

Sunnyhillboy                   10-11-04     16/1  ***

Back for more, after a superb 2^nd last year. Hiked up the weights for that and he missed the Gold Cup through a bad scope on the morning of the race (official story). Last year he won at Cheltenham, this year he missed it and that absence is a big negative. A 5^th and Pulled-Up in his 2 runs and is a little too high in the weights. I think his race was last year, but place chances are up for grabs.

Ballabriggs                     12-11-04    20/1  ****

Race winner of 2011. Didn't look like he'd win last year, but ran superbly for 6^th. A little lower in the weights this year, but he's now 12 years old. Place chances.

Teaforthree                     9-11-03     14/1  *****

Welsh National runner-up at Christmas, but a disappoint 10^th in the National Trial at Haydock last time. He passes all the trends, but is a little high in the weights.

Across The Bay             9-11-02      33/1  ****

7^th in the Welsh National, before recording a fine Hurdle success in February. His biggest Chase win (£20k) isn't perfect and might be better served over shorter distances.

Join Together                8-11-02      16/1  **

A little on the young side and inexperienced to boot. Very high in the weights for what he's achieved and is easily passed over. On the plus side he was 2^nd in this year's Becher Chase over these fences.

Colbert Station             9-11-01       12/1  ***

Tony McCoy's preference. It would be a huge feat to win with just 5 Chase starts behind him. Not been seen for 2 months and looks good at about 3 miles. On the plus side Ted Walsh knows how to win a National and if you can get past his inexperience, he could be a player.

Forpadydeplasterer    11-11-00       66/1  ****

Former Arkle Chase winner who never went on. Famous for finishing 2^nd 8 times in 8 completions, he's nowhere near that consistent now. This is a big step up in trip for him but he does tick a lot of boxes. His 3m Chase win looks the limit of his talents though.

On His Own                  9-11-00        7/1f  ***

Favourite, but he was better treated last year when he fell (was going well). Only has 7 Chase starts behind him and only been seen once since last year's race.

Joncol                         10-10-13        50/1  *****

Another Grade 1 winner who hasn't fulfilled his promise. (no win in 18 months). Passes all the trends, but unproven past 3 miles.

Balthazar King             9-10-12        20/1  ***

Definitely a contender if he is over his injury problems, but off the track for 5 months and only 2 races this year are negatives. Will stay all day if he's race fit.

Cappa Bleu                 11-10-11         12/1  ***

4^th last year, but still slightly inexperienced (9 Chases). Only 2 runs this season, and his Foxhunters win 4 years ago at Cheltenham remains his biggest prize. Similar place chances this year for this ultra-consistent runner.

Oscar Time                 12-10-11         66/1  ****

A little old (12yo) for perfection. Absolutely no form in the book (last win 2009) and a fortunate 4* horse. But he does pass all but one of the trends.

Always Waining          12-10-10         40/1  ***

Won the Topham Chase (over these fences) 3 years in a row and connections must want him to take his chance before its too late (he's 12). He does have a 3m Chase win behind him, well behind him as it was 6 seasons ago. 2m5f looks his distance and is overlooked.

Tatenen                        9-10-10         66/1  **

Unseated last year, but he is not a National horse and is still waiting for a 3 mile Chase win as is out of form.

Treacle                       12-10-09         33/1  ***

I short-listed him last year but decided there were better bets. Now 12 and had just 2 runs this year. Did win last time, but doesn't look a stayer in this.

Lost Glory                   8-10-08         66/1  **

Inexperienced 8 year old, off the track for 6 months and hasn't won a race worth at least £17k. He is in form and the drier the ground the better.

Swing Bill                  12-10-08          66/1  ***

10^th last year, he's now 12 and still hasn't won a race bigger than £15k in his career. Can't imagine he'll improve now.

Saint Are                    7-10-08          50/1  ***

I didn't think he'd win the 3m Handicap Chase here last year and he did. So he's already tucked me up big time. He's 7, so has it all to prove, especially at this distance.

Chicago Grey           10-10-07          14/1  *****

Perfect. Though he was losing interest in his races in the last year but had a good win in Ireland last time. Former winner of the 4 mile race at Cheltenham 2 years ago, he was brough down last year at fence 5 while carrying 10-13. 10-07 is a lovely weight.

Quiscover Fontaine   9-10-07          50/1  **

Yet to win over 3 miles and completely out of form. If you get this in the sweepstake, buy another horse.

Rare Bob                 11-10-06          25/1  *****

Perfect trendswise, but I'm not certain he will get the trip. Brought down by State Of Play (with Chicago Grey) last year. Bryan Cooper is gonna be a great jockey and that's a plus.

The Rainbow Hunter 9-10-06         66/1  **

Consistent, but only seems to run in small fields. This looks a little hot for him and I don't think he's good enough over this distance. Place chance at a price.

Becauseicouldntsee 10-10-06        66/1  ***

Has a chance on his 2^nd to Sunnyhillboy last year at Cheltenham, before falling at the Canal Turn. Yet to win over fences at 3 miles or more. Out of form but could be getting there afte good 5^th at Cheltenham.

Harry The Viking       8-10-06        50/1  **

Inexperienced out of form chaser, who may win this in a couple of years, but form of PP90 this season doesn't instill confidence.

Mr Moonshine           9-10-05        80/1  **

No win over the bigger obstacles and only ran 17 days ago after a busy campaign. This looks to hot for him.

Mumbles Head         12-10-04     150/1  **

12 year old thats never really been good enough. His form in the summer was decent and he wouldn't mind the ground drying out.

Ninetieth Minute      10-10-03       66/1  **

Not as good over fences as he was over hurdles, and has yet to win over the required 3 miles. Not good enough.

Auroras Encore        11-10-03       80/1  ***

Not really in form, but has been running in some hot handicaps. Has place chances at a massive price if he can get round.

Tarquinius                10-10-02     100/1  **

Very busy since the Autumn (11 races) and really not good enough at this extreme distance.

Any Currency          10-10-00     100/1  **

The distance shouldn't be a problem, but whether he'll be at the sharp end to trouble the judges is a different matter. Slow and steady and wants better ground.

Major Malarky       10-10-00     100/1  **

Another plodder. Won't mind the distance but shouldn't be fast enough.

Soll                             8-10-00       40/1  *

9^th in the Welsh National, He's very inexperienced. This may set him up for next year, but he won't be winning this one

Viking Blond              8-10-00     100/1  **

Another who's just 8, but more experienced. A stayer in the making, this may come too soon for him. Hasn't won for 18 months.

Reserves:

Pentiffic 10-10-00 100/1 **

Mortimers Cross 12-10-00 250/1 **

Out of the handicap:

Major Malarkey (1lb), Soll (2lbs), Viking Blond (3lbs), Pentiffic (6lbs), Mortimers Cross (8lbs)

Conclusions:

The are 4 top rated horses. 2 are genuine stayers. TEAFORTHREE (14/1) and CHICAGO GREY (14/1) have 4 mile winning form in the book. They will be up there with a clear round. The other 2 are more risky. Rare Bob (25/1) has no winning form on better than soft, but has place form on good He could run into a place and is considered. Joncol (50/1) has only raced once on ground better than soft and is opposed. Ballabriggs (20/1) will love the ground and if he's not too old at 12 could be the first to regain the title for 36 years. At a massive price Auroras Encore (80/1) could surprise a few people.

2 main bets. I hope I don't talk you out of the winner.

Grand National Analysis 2013

Grand National Analysis

Neptune Collonges wins the closest National in history. Sunnyhillboy is back for more

A nose is all that separated a perfect trends horse, Sunnyhillboy, from lots of backslapping and self-congratulations. He didn't win. Neptune Collonges did. He carried 11 stone 6lbs, the biggest since Red Rum and we have to seriously consider the way the handicapper is rating the horses. The top weighted horses are being let in off lenient marks to even up the race... That is his job after all. I still don't want big weights for my horses, but we have to consider them from now on.

The following trends are strong and should be adhered to.

Aged 8-12
No horse outside of this age range has won a Grand National since 1940 when Bogskar (aged 7) took the honours. The last horse older than 12 was Sergeant Murphy (13yo) who won in 1923.

The actual sweet spot for Grand National winners is either 9 or 10 year olds. 8 year-olds haven't really developed the stamina reserves to win over 41/2 miles, and horses older than 10 are on the downgrade and whilst they have sufficient stamina, may lack the pace to go on and win.

Only one 8 year-old has won the race since 1992, Bindaree, 11 years ago.
Two 11 year olds - Red Marauder, in 2001, and Neptune Collonges, last year, have won since 1994.
Amberleigh House won well as a 12 year old in 2004, the only one that old since 1995.

10 Year Trends (won-placed-runners)

aged 6/7  0-0-29

aged 8     0-7-73

aged 9     3-10-104

aged 10   5-6-95

aged 11   1-7-71

aged 12+ 1-0-35

As you can see, the sweet spot is still 9 or 10 years old. No youngster has placed and only Amberleigh House has placed as a 12yo.


Winning form over at least 3 miles
Not since Gay Trip won the race in 1970 has the winner previously not won a race over at least 3 miles. It seems logical that if you haven't won a race at 3 miles or more, you won't win one at 41/2 miles (ps this year it's 4m 31/2f).


Carrying less than 11st 6lbs
The best horse in the race will carry the biggest weight, but they don't often win the Grand National. It's a huge burden to lump nearly 12 stone around 41/2 miles and it takes it toll. Last year, Neptune Collonges managed it with 11-06. It's become easier to carry a big weight around thanks to some leniency by the handicapper.

The bottom weights are back to 10 stone and I still think this is a good stat to adhere to. I'm still tempted to say that 11 stone is the cut-off, but I'm only ruling out horses above that line if they've failed other trends.

Grand National hero Red Rum (twice) was the previous horse to carry more than 11-05 in the National and win. Before that it was Sundew in 1957.

Officially Rated between 136-155
This trend will rule out many of the horses that the previous one does, but also catches out those really crap horses that used to run at the bottom of the handicap but now rarely get in the race, and can be used to dump these horses at the first declaration stage. Neptune Collonges was rated 157, but we are dumping the bottom weights this time.


Must have run within the previous 56 days
Was 49 days, but Neptune Collonges break was 7 days longer and lee-way can be give. I don't want anything with more than 70 days. I want race fit horses.

Rough Quest had a break of only 16 days in 1996.

Horses need to be race fit to win this and horses start losing their edge after a long break, either enforced or otherwise. We want a horse that is ready to race.


Had finished in the first 3 in one of his last 3 starts.
Every horse needs to be in some sort of form, not necessarily winning form as we don't want that pesky handicapper finding us out do we. Even the hopelessly out of form 100/1 shot, Mon Mome, in 2009, managed a 2nd in the January of that year.


Have run in at least 9 Chases
Horses need good jumping experience to win the Grand National. Every winner since Miinnehoma (9 Chase races) in 1994 has run in at least 10 Chases. You may want to give those with 9 races under their belt, like Cappa Bleu, the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't want to be affording Colbert Station (5) the same.


Have won a chase worth at least £29,000
You still need to be classy enough to win the National. Bad horses still don't win. Every winner in the last 10 years has won a Chase worth at least this amount of money. The horses at the lower end of the handicap will need to be scrutinised for this trend. Horses that have won a £17k-£28k Chase may be given a little le-way as Bindaree (2002) has just dropped off the end


Have raced between 3 and 6 times in the season
Missed prep races, setbacks in training, bad planning and over-raced horses will find it tough to win the Grand National. Miinnehoma had only 2 races in the 1993-94 season before his win. Every winner since has had 4-6 runs, until Ballabriggs (with 3) broke that, but was so strong on all the other trends he was a must bet.

Officially Rated at least 138

Numbersixvalverde (under-the radar Irish raider) and Silver Birch (injury problems) were rated 138. Horses lower probably aren't good enough.

Conclusions:
Winning Profile
Aged 9-12
Won over more than 3 miles
Carrying less than 11-07
OR between 138-157
Last run between 20-56 days ago
Top 3 finish in his last 3 runs
9+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £17k to the winner
Between 3-6 runs that season

If you want to refine it further

Perfect Profile
Aged 9 or 10
Carrying less than 11-01
10+ Chases

Won a race worth more than £29k to the winner
Between 4-6 runs that season

Good Luck