Benandoner ran ok yesterday but no money in the bank. Today looks decidedly shit and wet.
The only piece of value against a short favourite I can offer is Mister Wiseman. He runs in the 4.30 at Newton Abbot. For One Night Only will probably win but the rest are pretty average. Mister Wiseman's problem is his trainer doesn't know what to run him over.... or indeed just to run him over. 16/1 or better offers value but there will be better bets this year.
Sunday 31 August 2008
Saturday 30 August 2008
Short and Sweet
Cross The Line was punted into 15/2 on monday.... Ran like a pig of course. Oh well.
A short post today just to highlight any thing over-priced.
Sandown
3.10 Benandoner (40/1 Stan James, Betdirect, Boylesports) looks overpriced to me. the spotlight waffles about him not getting 1m2f, but I think he ran into trouble then. He likes good ground, which he gets today and could shock at a massive price.
4.05 Piscean (10/1) drops down in grade today and has a great chance to add to his win earlier in the month. I just hope he isn't in need of a break.
Chester
5.05 Thewhirlingdervish (10/1). Just as I was wrining this, bluesq's standout price of 12/1 was clipped, so he's now not a viable bet at 10/1.
Not too much to get excited about all in all. I fancy Sunderland @ 11/8 look a standout price with Paddy Power against poor tired old Manchester City......
ttfn
A short post today just to highlight any thing over-priced.
Sandown
3.10 Benandoner (40/1 Stan James, Betdirect, Boylesports) looks overpriced to me. the spotlight waffles about him not getting 1m2f, but I think he ran into trouble then. He likes good ground, which he gets today and could shock at a massive price.
4.05 Piscean (10/1) drops down in grade today and has a great chance to add to his win earlier in the month. I just hope he isn't in need of a break.
Chester
5.05 Thewhirlingdervish (10/1). Just as I was wrining this, bluesq's standout price of 12/1 was clipped, so he's now not a viable bet at 10/1.
Not too much to get excited about all in all. I fancy Sunderland @ 11/8 look a standout price with Paddy Power against poor tired old Manchester City......
ttfn
Monday 25 August 2008
Bank Holiday blues?
Best bet of the day.
Kempton 5.40
Cross The Line is a former C&D winner who looks like he could land a touch for his owners today. I think the 25/1 with Stan James/Betdirect should be snaffled asap. Priti Fabulous is out now and I'll be disappointed if he's not in the frame.
on the weekend, Borderlescott won (even though I said he wouldn't lol) and I can't believe I missed Shaweel @ 16/1, which I reccommended in July... Massive oversight, just didn't see him in the line-up.... gutted. Askar Tau beat Ollie George, Jazacosta placed. Copperwood was backed into 3rd fav but didn't offer much.
Onto the footie Rochdale were crap, however Sheff Utd and Bury made up for that. Carlisle couldn't quite make the treble....
Off to poker later, so this is a quick one. Get on.
edited 20 mins later..... 25/1 gone... 22/1 sportingbet or 20/1 Ladbrokes . 16/1 elsewhere.
Kempton 5.40
Cross The Line is a former C&D winner who looks like he could land a touch for his owners today. I think the 25/1 with Stan James/Betdirect should be snaffled asap. Priti Fabulous is out now and I'll be disappointed if he's not in the frame.
on the weekend, Borderlescott won (even though I said he wouldn't lol) and I can't believe I missed Shaweel @ 16/1, which I reccommended in July... Massive oversight, just didn't see him in the line-up.... gutted. Askar Tau beat Ollie George, Jazacosta placed. Copperwood was backed into 3rd fav but didn't offer much.
Onto the footie Rochdale were crap, however Sheff Utd and Bury made up for that. Carlisle couldn't quite make the treble....
Off to poker later, so this is a quick one. Get on.
edited 20 mins later..... 25/1 gone... 22/1 sportingbet or 20/1 Ladbrokes . 16/1 elsewhere.
Friday 22 August 2008
It's York, Jim! But not as we know it
Typical England.... same old rubbish and they still cock up your bets. Only you in-running punters managed to lock in a profit on wednesday, with the rest of us trying to recork the champers at 9.52pm. Ho-hum.... And Imperial Skylight turns in one of the unluckier performances of the week. Twice squeezed when going for a gap and nudged off-ballance when going round the outside, the horse ran on past beaten horses to take 3rd only to be nabbed on the line in a photo. Impressive debutant here though (in fact 1st and 2nd were making their bow).
And onto friday. I won't be around the weekend, so will have to find some beer money today. York is at Newmarket I think, maybe Newbury and possibly in Hong Kong at the Olympics (well you never know).
I'm ignoring the first 2 races and will start with the 1.30.
Newmarket
1.30 Looks on paper to be fairly open and I';m actually agreeing with the RP on this. Roly Boy looks to have the best chance and is a decent price @ 6/1. Obviously the bookies disagree as I think he should start shorter than this. 2 yo's are not really my field so I will look for a bigger price too.
Jazacosta (11/1, Ladbrokes) beat Roly Boy LTO and whilst Roly Boy was thought to be unlucky that day, Jazacosta is a nice price. River Captain is a non-runner and I think these 2 are the only ones to follow in this race.
2.05 I guess Kevin Manning won't make the same errors on Lush Lashes (13/10, sportingbet) this time :-). Should win, no value though. Michita (7/2) is a nice horse and is likely to cause problems. Passage Of Time's (9/2) is a big threat too. I'm far too tentative here. Cape Amber (33/1) is going backwards. Dar Re Mi (9/1) is as honest as they come and can't be ruled out. Allegretto (20/1) actually offers the best value of the lot, shame its only 6 runners. All in all its a race to watch. If I was there, I'd back Lush Lashes to beat Passage Of Time and Allegretto in forecasts.
2.35 Great, a 2yo race in a massive field. Not for me, I'm afraid. Fitz Flyer (14/1, Sportingbet) offers the best value in the race if you are a nutter.
3.05 The market isn't giving much away here. It will be a cracking race. Equiano (9/2) looks good. Kingsgate Native (5/1) could follow up his Golden Jubilee win, I just don't like missing big prices and backing them after the fact. So I won't touch him on principle, pah. Borderlescott (12/1) will place but not win and Dandy Man (11/1) will frustrate like nomal. Captain Gerrard (9/1) can't be ruled out either. All in all, Borderlescott's consistancy allows me to back him e/w.
Half-Time...
3.40 Um, good luck.
4.10 Another good race, another hard race. I want to be against Earlsmedic (5/2 fav), far too short for a value hunter. So lay him. Obe Brave (16/1, boylesports, bluesq) and John Keats (10/1, Hills) if i had to stick my neck out. Hopefully I will find a big price winner to justify the waffle written here today.
4.40 Good, a short priced favourite to get beat. Trouble is I don't think Bellomi (10/11) can be beat. Averoo (12/1) and Royal Applord (16/1, sportingbet) are the only realistic e/w options in this race and with Spin Again (4/1, vcbet, sportingbet) also in the mix there isn't a standout betting opportunity here either. No bet, unless you're backing the favourite. :-o
5.15 Askar Tau (3/1, sportingbet) might give a little value to the rest of the field here. Whilst he's a good horse this is much more competative, and squeak of a betting opportunity here. Ollie George (14/1, bluesq, betdirect, sportingbet) is the one I'm going to take a chance with. No tips in tips box, but has my stamp of approval.
5.45 This race isn't going to get you out of trouble if you've done your dough. I'm sure there's a big price winner out there, but I can't see it and I won't lead you away from your 'guess'. Avoid outsider Multahab (50/1) *dothscap*... Oh ok... Royal Envoy (25/1, surprise surprise its sportingbet, my favorite bookies) New stable and if fit after 3 months off can go close.
Newbury
1.45 Saxford (16/1) is in a race with 2 short-priced favourites and it allows his price to be artificailly large. Spin Cycle (16/1, bluesq) can also take advantage of the odds. I'll be disappointed if one of these doesn't get into the frame.
Bath
8.00 Copperwood will win one day, I'm convinced. And I won't be on. And he'll land a right touch. He is priced up at 33/1 (Hills and Betfred) and they don't often get their horses wrong. But there's something nagging at me to put something on him. I don't know....... My head says no, my heart says yes. Lets toss a coin.... Heads it is, back him....... only at 33/1 mind.. If you can't get on, don't get on.
All in all there's a lot of chat and little substance. Hopefully I can put you towards some winners or placepot selections. It's a tough old day. Copperwood is the best value of the day, couldn't get the full bet on with Betfred unfotunately, I prefer the smaller meetings where I can spot the horses primed for a touch.
Tuesday 19 August 2008
40/1 shot in the 2.00 Brighton
Brighton 2.00
There is a value horse today, although it is definitely not the strongest of bets, Imperial Skylight (40/1, Coral, Hills) is pretty big. Not the worst horse in the world in a fairly weak contest it could be worth a couple of quid each way. I had a couple of nice results at the weekend with this type of punting (unfortunately a heavy night's poker and Brentford playing prevented me from blogging Nabeeba and Beaver Patrol) so I have to put it up at a big price.
There is a value horse today, although it is definitely not the strongest of bets, Imperial Skylight (40/1, Coral, Hills) is pretty big. Not the worst horse in the world in a fairly weak contest it could be worth a couple of quid each way. I had a couple of nice results at the weekend with this type of punting (unfortunately a heavy night's poker and Brentford playing prevented me from blogging Nabeeba and Beaver Patrol) so I have to put it up at a big price.
York OFF
Sorry for the infrequency, but the horses have been shite on the days I've had off. Now I have the time and York's first day is rained off.... bad scenes..
Very little at Brighton today, but I think a bad day for favourite backers and a good day for placepot backers. The two meetings tonight are bloody awful.
I'm prettty patriotic and am loving the Olympics, however England's footballers never offer any value. Probably best to stay away from friendlies too, but I'm a value-hunter which means I can only offer unpatriotic bets. Bet365 are offering 9/2 on the Czech Republic, wednesday night. Something for the other Brits to get their teeth into I'm sure. And then all the scorers and correct score markets offer great value too. The Czech's to win 2-1 is 22/1 with bluesq *shrug*.
Just had a little look at the weekend's football too... Plenty of value, West Ham @ Man City (9/4) for example, but nothing too concrete in the Premiership after only 1 week.
The value, as always, is where the bookies are weak, ie the Football League and Non-League (where I'm also weak) lol. However Mr Edge knows his non-League stuff and hopefully he'll send a few Blue Square punts my way. But I know the lower leagues and reckon there are some tasty aways this week.
You can get 11/8 (betfred, 365) on Sheffield United to win at Blackpool. Excellent value surely. United's firepower make this a good thing IMO. Doncaster come down to London this weekend in a make or break match for both teams. We'll find out whether 'the richest club in the world', QPR are the real deal (pfft) or whether Donny (15/4) are good enough to bring home the bacon on my tip in 'Division 2'. Not a bet. Hmmm, nope no bet.
In Division 3, Carlisle (6/4) also should get something from a trip to Leyton Orient this saturday. They crushed them in the corresponding fixture last season and are a much better side than the O's.
Bury (10/11, skybet) to beat Morecambe, at Gigg Lane, looks nailed on too. Anyone that can beat Brentford must be good ;-). Money talks in football especially with bookmakers and mug punters. Quite why Rochdale are 3/1 (bet365) to win at an overrated Bradford baffles me. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd take Rochdale at this price every day of the week. They are no mugs and are my *Harry Hill* 'value punt of the week'. */Harry Hill*
I'll be back tomorrow weather-permitting, but am currently enjoying the Madison madness of Wiggins and Cavendish.
Thursday 7 August 2008
It's back.... Olympic Diving at its best.
Ooooh, I am bloody knackered.... 5 days work (that's about 60 hrs before you ask) ....... but a day at the cricket beckons tomorrow and England in the box seat. There may or may not be a post on saturday depending on 'technical' issues on saturday morning.
The football and Olympics starting gives us some other opportunities to bet on too...
I like paying particular interest to the divisional handicap markets. Last year Portsmouth, Stoke, Plymouth, Leyton Orient and Rochdale proving extremely profitable.
Premier League
Looks like the bookies aren't allowing much to get away this season.
Outright:
Manchester United look to have a little problem on their plates this year
Ronaldo out for the first 6 weeks
No squad improvement
Tough start to the season
Away from home the weekend after Champion's League games.
Meanwhile Chelsea look decent preseason and Deco's quality will unlock defences that they couldn't do previously. Of the 2 Chelsea @ 15/8 are the team to back at the start. Man Utd should drift at the start and must be bigger than 6/4 'in-running'.
Arsenal and Liverpool will have to wait some more.
Handicap Betting:
Little to get excited about this year. Fulham look ok at +46 (skybet) and if they get 44 points will definitely get placed. They look a better outfit than last year and are my tip.
Match Bets
I do like my match bets and missed out on a 5 timer on the last weekend of the season (Blackburn vs Villa) This season I want to be against Newcastle and West Ham, and Portsmouth and Boro look to have improved their squads in the summer. Not much else to get excited about in this division.
Portsmouth to bt Newcastle @ 8/11 (totesport)
Middlesbrough to bt West Ham @ 10/11 (totesport)
Championship:
Open as usual. Want to get right down to it. Birmingham, of the favourites, look the best equipped, however their manager hasn't done it and I can't be solid at such a short price. Clinton Morrison's gone from Palace today. Colin knows what he's doing and I think Palace @ 14/1 (skybet, William Hill) can continue the momentum of last season. Sheffield United fans must be tearing their hair out at their board after the obvious failure of Bryan Robson. Kevin Blackwell undid a lot of the bad work and made them the form side of the 2nd half of the season. I think they are very backable @ 12/1 (Boyle, PP, Skybet, Coral).
Handicap Bets:
Stoke last year punished out of line bookies and having seen Dave Penney's Doncaster over the last couple of seasons, I adore their football. The play-off NAP versus Leeds, this team could surprise so many. James Coppinger is a star in the making and the +29 Betfred are offering should be nabbed in double quick time. Plymouth are big again (+30, Hills), but aren't as strong this year. Don't be surprised if Swansea (+24, bet365) are better than their handicap too.
Match Bets:
Sheff Utd to bt Sheff Wed @ 1/2 (bet365)
Plymouth to bt Southampton @ 10/11 (bet365)
Doncaster to bt Barnsley @ 8/11 (bet365)
Palace to bt Charlton @ 8/11 (Bet365, William Hill)
Swansea to bt Cardiff @ 5/4 (bet365)
Preston to bt Burnley @ 5/6 (William Hill)
Birmingham to bt QPR @ 10/11 (Betfred)
Doncaster to bt Plymouth @ evs (betfred)
Sheff Utd to bt Wolves @ evs (Blue Sq)
Doncaster to beat Sheff Wed @ 6/5 (Blue Sq)
League 1:
Is Gary McAllister the man to lead Leeds to the title. Dunno. If he is then 3/1 is a steal. Not sure who else is going to take if from them if they aren't. Certainly not Leicester (5/1). No Experience... A Completely differnt league to the Championship and this is proved year in year out as the Forests, Man City's, QPR, Sheff Wed fail to acclimatise to the less cultured football on offer. Huddersfield have made some decent signings and finished the season strongly. 16/1 (Betfred, Coral, Skybet) seems fair. Leeds should win the title.
Handicaps:
Oldham (+18, Betfred) look pretty good value here, nothing much else on offer.
Match Bets:
Leicester have no experience of 'Division 3' and are very opposable at the 5/1 for the title. Leeds should beat them comfortably. Northampton finished the season strongly and are worth backing against a Millwall side that look weaker this season. John Sheridan have made some decent signings and look nailed on @ 8/11 to dominate Millwall.
Leeds to bt Leicester @ 4/6 (bet365, Blue Sq, Stan James)
Northampton to bt Milwall @ 10/11 (bet365)
Oldham to bt Millwall @ 8/11 (Totesport)
League 2:
Shrewsbury have been hammered into 8/1 fav (from 25/1) and offer no value but have made use of Joe Hart's windfall money. I fancy Rochdale (12/1, Betfred, Ladbrokes) to get 'promoted', yes promoted.... Rochdale and promoted in the same sentence... Bradford... nah, Darlington out of form. Gillingham (11/1) are interesting, it shouldn't take them long to get into the swing of things. Notts County and Bury (33/1) need to be more consistant but have the personnel to be in the mix.
Handicap:
Notts County +20 (bet365). Grimsby were hot and cold last season but have signed the best centre-half in the division, so at (+18) this is pretty decent value. Will need to be more consistent at home though. Bury (+18) finished the season strongly and Andy Bishop (20/1) is value for top scorer.
Match Bets: I want to get on the side of Bury and Notts County in some lop-sided bets here. Accrington look safe this season thanks to the 3 teams on negative points but won't offer much. Barnet look weaker and must be opposed too.
Dag & Red to bt Accrington @ 5/6 (bet365, Blue Sq, Stan James)
Bury to bt Barnet @ 11/10 (bet365)
Notts County to bt Chester @ 4/6 (bet365)
Aldershot to bt Port Vale @ 5/4 (Ladbrokes)
Grimsby to bt Lincoln @ 6/5 (Ladbrokes)
Chesterfield to bt Darlington @ evs (Stan James)
Notts County to bt Barnet @ 5/6 (Stan James)
Bury to bt Morecambe @ 5/6 (Stan James)
Lincoln to bt Barnet @ 5/6 (totesport)
Notts County to bt Morecambe @ 4/5 (totesport)
A quick word on the mighty Bees..... 20/1 is a little big and I've taken some, I think we need another year, but it isn't a strong division this season and I'd rather be on our side than against us :-)
right must get some shut-eye for the cricket, ......night all
The football and Olympics starting gives us some other opportunities to bet on too...
I like paying particular interest to the divisional handicap markets. Last year Portsmouth, Stoke, Plymouth, Leyton Orient and Rochdale proving extremely profitable.
Premier League
Looks like the bookies aren't allowing much to get away this season.
Outright:
Manchester United look to have a little problem on their plates this year
Ronaldo out for the first 6 weeks
No squad improvement
Tough start to the season
Away from home the weekend after Champion's League games.
Meanwhile Chelsea look decent preseason and Deco's quality will unlock defences that they couldn't do previously. Of the 2 Chelsea @ 15/8 are the team to back at the start. Man Utd should drift at the start and must be bigger than 6/4 'in-running'.
Arsenal and Liverpool will have to wait some more.
Handicap Betting:
Little to get excited about this year. Fulham look ok at +46 (skybet) and if they get 44 points will definitely get placed. They look a better outfit than last year and are my tip.
Match Bets
I do like my match bets and missed out on a 5 timer on the last weekend of the season (Blackburn vs Villa) This season I want to be against Newcastle and West Ham, and Portsmouth and Boro look to have improved their squads in the summer. Not much else to get excited about in this division.
Portsmouth to bt Newcastle @ 8/11 (totesport)
Middlesbrough to bt West Ham @ 10/11 (totesport)
Championship:
Open as usual. Want to get right down to it. Birmingham, of the favourites, look the best equipped, however their manager hasn't done it and I can't be solid at such a short price. Clinton Morrison's gone from Palace today. Colin knows what he's doing and I think Palace @ 14/1 (skybet, William Hill) can continue the momentum of last season. Sheffield United fans must be tearing their hair out at their board after the obvious failure of Bryan Robson. Kevin Blackwell undid a lot of the bad work and made them the form side of the 2nd half of the season. I think they are very backable @ 12/1 (Boyle, PP, Skybet, Coral).
Handicap Bets:
Stoke last year punished out of line bookies and having seen Dave Penney's Doncaster over the last couple of seasons, I adore their football. The play-off NAP versus Leeds, this team could surprise so many. James Coppinger is a star in the making and the +29 Betfred are offering should be nabbed in double quick time. Plymouth are big again (+30, Hills), but aren't as strong this year. Don't be surprised if Swansea (+24, bet365) are better than their handicap too.
Match Bets:
Sheff Utd to bt Sheff Wed @ 1/2 (bet365)
Plymouth to bt Southampton @ 10/11 (bet365)
Doncaster to bt Barnsley @ 8/11 (bet365)
Palace to bt Charlton @ 8/11 (Bet365, William Hill)
Swansea to bt Cardiff @ 5/4 (bet365)
Preston to bt Burnley @ 5/6 (William Hill)
Birmingham to bt QPR @ 10/11 (Betfred)
Doncaster to bt Plymouth @ evs (betfred)
Sheff Utd to bt Wolves @ evs (Blue Sq)
Doncaster to beat Sheff Wed @ 6/5 (Blue Sq)
League 1:
Is Gary McAllister the man to lead Leeds to the title. Dunno. If he is then 3/1 is a steal. Not sure who else is going to take if from them if they aren't. Certainly not Leicester (5/1). No Experience... A Completely differnt league to the Championship and this is proved year in year out as the Forests, Man City's, QPR, Sheff Wed fail to acclimatise to the less cultured football on offer. Huddersfield have made some decent signings and finished the season strongly. 16/1 (Betfred, Coral, Skybet) seems fair. Leeds should win the title.
Handicaps:
Oldham (+18, Betfred) look pretty good value here, nothing much else on offer.
Match Bets:
Leicester have no experience of 'Division 3' and are very opposable at the 5/1 for the title. Leeds should beat them comfortably. Northampton finished the season strongly and are worth backing against a Millwall side that look weaker this season. John Sheridan have made some decent signings and look nailed on @ 8/11 to dominate Millwall.
Leeds to bt Leicester @ 4/6 (bet365, Blue Sq, Stan James)
Northampton to bt Milwall @ 10/11 (bet365)
Oldham to bt Millwall @ 8/11 (Totesport)
League 2:
Shrewsbury have been hammered into 8/1 fav (from 25/1) and offer no value but have made use of Joe Hart's windfall money. I fancy Rochdale (12/1, Betfred, Ladbrokes) to get 'promoted', yes promoted.... Rochdale and promoted in the same sentence... Bradford... nah, Darlington out of form. Gillingham (11/1) are interesting, it shouldn't take them long to get into the swing of things. Notts County and Bury (33/1) need to be more consistant but have the personnel to be in the mix.
Handicap:
Notts County +20 (bet365). Grimsby were hot and cold last season but have signed the best centre-half in the division, so at (+18) this is pretty decent value. Will need to be more consistent at home though. Bury (+18) finished the season strongly and Andy Bishop (20/1) is value for top scorer.
Match Bets: I want to get on the side of Bury and Notts County in some lop-sided bets here. Accrington look safe this season thanks to the 3 teams on negative points but won't offer much. Barnet look weaker and must be opposed too.
Dag & Red to bt Accrington @ 5/6 (bet365, Blue Sq, Stan James)
Bury to bt Barnet @ 11/10 (bet365)
Notts County to bt Chester @ 4/6 (bet365)
Aldershot to bt Port Vale @ 5/4 (Ladbrokes)
Grimsby to bt Lincoln @ 6/5 (Ladbrokes)
Chesterfield to bt Darlington @ evs (Stan James)
Notts County to bt Barnet @ 5/6 (Stan James)
Bury to bt Morecambe @ 5/6 (Stan James)
Lincoln to bt Barnet @ 5/6 (totesport)
Notts County to bt Morecambe @ 4/5 (totesport)
A quick word on the mighty Bees..... 20/1 is a little big and I've taken some, I think we need another year, but it isn't a strong division this season and I'd rather be on our side than against us :-)
right must get some shut-eye for the cricket, ......night all
Saturday 2 August 2008
the rest of some depressing cards
With little on offer at Goodwood we need to find something elsewhere. First lets get the 2 Newmarket Scoop6 races out of the way.
2.55
Harold Bluetooth is Barry's Bismarck and I'm not so sure. 9/4 (bet365, sportingbet) looks a little big. If Gross Prophet (10/1) wins I may have to give it all up. I've backed this donkey more than I should have and he's disappointed on every occasion. A 2nd 2 runs ago broke his sequence of duck eggs but this dodgy geezer must be laid. I guess Non Sucre (28/1) just hasn't trained on from being a decent 2yo. Blinkers re-applied today and they may spark him again as they did last season. If you take Emperors Jade and Writingonthewall out of the equation you still have some decent chances. Nezami (16/1, bluesq, betfred) hasn't done much this season, but I won't rule him out for place chances. I'm wafling again so Harald to beat Kalahari Gold (9/2) with Non Sucre/Nezami and in a speculative tricast!!!
3.30
7 runners unfortunately, so Yarqus (12/1) misses out on a e/w bet. Redesignation (2/1f) is napped by Spotlight, which is good coz Trans Siberian (5/1, Coral) could just get left in front enough to win this.
Doncaster
3.25 Looks the type of race with some e/w value. Trouble is knowing what to suggest. Avoiding the outsider. We have 5 horses at e/w prices. Capricorn Run (25/1) has been written off by Spotlight. Likes All-Weather, needs further, bad draw, up 8lbs.... zzzzzzzz ...ok, he might not win, but he's dropping down the weights and could be worth watching in the coming weeks. (lets hope its not today). Ann Stokels' Pawan (16/1, sportingbet) is big considering he's been running well. Ann's riding gets tons of criticism, but can't be ruled out at spbet's ridiculous price. Somnus (16/1, vcbet) is also at a big price, but opens seasonal account here today and may need the run. Worth watching for a market move, but vcbet have made him value. Hammadi (20/1) found only Loch Jipp (100/1) behind him in June, but is better than that, and with Tajdeef (11/4f) also running poorly there this race is wide open. Don't worry as I've mentioned most of the field here, I won't claim bragging rights when Capricorn Run beats Pawan by a nose.
4.00
Checklow (8/11f) can be beaten :-). No run for 3 months and with the St Leger coming up need to get fit.
Hamilton
7.35 Border Tale (20/1, Skybet) is a dual purpose horse, who's been getting better over hurdles. Back in flat handicaps for the forst time in 15 months and could have snuck past the odds compilers. Runs off 50 today, 8lb less than last time and though he's not my best ever 20/1 shot, he's worth mentioning as overpriced. Astrodome (3/1) looks very beatable indeed.
8.35 Has always started a big price, but Forzarzi (16/1, Stan James/betdirect) won't have better chances to break his duck. This looks a pretty weak race and he offers a little e/w value with some backwards -looking horses here.
All in all, very little around today and it may be worth taking a day off to watch a very close Test match...
My All-sports statistician, Mr Edge, recommends Warrington to beat Leeds tonight. Leeds had a tough ask last week in their loss to St Helens and Warrington are in pretty decent form. The bookies make Leeds slight favs and they go 11/10 (StanJames, Ladbrokes) on the Wolves.
2.55
Harold Bluetooth is Barry's Bismarck and I'm not so sure. 9/4 (bet365, sportingbet) looks a little big. If Gross Prophet (10/1) wins I may have to give it all up. I've backed this donkey more than I should have and he's disappointed on every occasion. A 2nd 2 runs ago broke his sequence of duck eggs but this dodgy geezer must be laid. I guess Non Sucre (28/1) just hasn't trained on from being a decent 2yo. Blinkers re-applied today and they may spark him again as they did last season. If you take Emperors Jade and Writingonthewall out of the equation you still have some decent chances. Nezami (16/1, bluesq, betfred) hasn't done much this season, but I won't rule him out for place chances. I'm wafling again so Harald to beat Kalahari Gold (9/2) with Non Sucre/Nezami and in a speculative tricast!!!
3.30
7 runners unfortunately, so Yarqus (12/1) misses out on a e/w bet. Redesignation (2/1f) is napped by Spotlight, which is good coz Trans Siberian (5/1, Coral) could just get left in front enough to win this.
Doncaster
3.25 Looks the type of race with some e/w value. Trouble is knowing what to suggest. Avoiding the outsider. We have 5 horses at e/w prices. Capricorn Run (25/1) has been written off by Spotlight. Likes All-Weather, needs further, bad draw, up 8lbs.... zzzzzzzz ...ok, he might not win, but he's dropping down the weights and could be worth watching in the coming weeks. (lets hope its not today). Ann Stokels' Pawan (16/1, sportingbet) is big considering he's been running well. Ann's riding gets tons of criticism, but can't be ruled out at spbet's ridiculous price. Somnus (16/1, vcbet) is also at a big price, but opens seasonal account here today and may need the run. Worth watching for a market move, but vcbet have made him value. Hammadi (20/1) found only Loch Jipp (100/1) behind him in June, but is better than that, and with Tajdeef (11/4f) also running poorly there this race is wide open. Don't worry as I've mentioned most of the field here, I won't claim bragging rights when Capricorn Run beats Pawan by a nose.
4.00
Checklow (8/11f) can be beaten :-). No run for 3 months and with the St Leger coming up need to get fit.
Hamilton
7.35 Border Tale (20/1, Skybet) is a dual purpose horse, who's been getting better over hurdles. Back in flat handicaps for the forst time in 15 months and could have snuck past the odds compilers. Runs off 50 today, 8lb less than last time and though he's not my best ever 20/1 shot, he's worth mentioning as overpriced. Astrodome (3/1) looks very beatable indeed.
8.35 Has always started a big price, but Forzarzi (16/1, Stan James/betdirect) won't have better chances to break his duck. This looks a pretty weak race and he offers a little e/w value with some backwards -looking horses here.
All in all, very little around today and it may be worth taking a day off to watch a very close Test match...
My All-sports statistician, Mr Edge, recommends Warrington to beat Leeds tonight. Leeds had a tough ask last week in their loss to St Helens and Warrington are in pretty decent form. The bookies make Leeds slight favs and they go 11/10 (StanJames, Ladbrokes) on the Wolves.
One more day...
Not a great day yesterday. The Graig WAS last lol but started at 8/1. But gutted about Little Pete (into 17/2) who led 100 yards out before losing by a nose to Piscean who i've backed previously without success (naturally) ... Our Faye was a non-runner.
Goodwood
205
I expect this to go to one of the favourites. Deep Winter (9/2) looks a nice horse but is beatable. Important for the Scoop6/Placepot to get it out of the frame. Not sure it will be that poor. Of the rest, Wikaala (10/1) looks a little too big in the betting but is tempremental. Palmerin (25/1, Hills) offers an e/w alternative but all in all there isn't a bet here.
2.40
Can't see why Perfect Stride (2/1f) is so short. Looks a talking horse to me. River Proud (7/2) has better credentials. Tanya reckons Stubbs Art (5/1) will hose up if it runs. i'm not so sure and neither is anyone else. The rest of them have chances and I won't put you off backing any of the next 3, Alexandros (10/1), Atlantic Sport (11/1) and Duntulm (10/1) who are artificially big due to the favourite.
3.15
Lush Lashes (2/1, skybet) offers much better value than the 2.40 favourite. At least she's done the business. Halfway To Heaven (9/2, Coral, partybets) will give her most to do. Passage Of Time (13/2) surely hasn't got her softer ground and can't be backed. I fancy Majestic Roi (22/1, skybet) to run a big race and is definitely some e/w value.
3.50
The big one, The Steward's Cup. Good luck :0). Ok Anything can win. Borderlescott (12/1, partybets) won this 2 years ago, but can't get his head in front but 12/1 is fair. John Francome doesn't think Prime Defender (8/1) can win as he don't think he'll like Goodwood, that's good enough for me and he's too short anyway. The Morning Line was actually pretty decent today, Not sure it was Big Mac or birds shitting on Thommo. Yes it was the birds. Knot In Wood's been in fantastic form and 10/1 is a fair price. Barney McGrew (16/1, sportingbet) has already been clipped this morning and offers little value on form. King's Apostle (14/1) hasn't been mentioned anywhere and can't be ruled out. E/W I recommend Bentong @ 25/1 as a little value and Orpsie Boy (33/1) is consistent.
4.25
2yo race with a few newcomers, get Holyrood out of the money the only aim.
5.00
Another 2yo race, but a little more to go on. Ideally getting the favourite out of the frame is the aim and there is opportunity. Tishtar (7/2, partybets) is possibly the only one to command some respect and with the tipsbox giving 8 tips to Finnegan McCool (11/2) and Golden Rosie (11/2) the sheep will surely follow. Fault (6/1) steps up to 6f for the first time but is a danger if he gets it. Ideally we'd get 3 big prices in the places and the placepot is sorted. Not a great betting proposition but could make or break the dividend. Stop waffling.
5.35
Looks a good race, shame the market has it spot on. I like Count Ceprano (11/1), but I'd want bigger to back him. No bets.
Goodwood
205
I expect this to go to one of the favourites. Deep Winter (9/2) looks a nice horse but is beatable. Important for the Scoop6/Placepot to get it out of the frame. Not sure it will be that poor. Of the rest, Wikaala (10/1) looks a little too big in the betting but is tempremental. Palmerin (25/1, Hills) offers an e/w alternative but all in all there isn't a bet here.
2.40
Can't see why Perfect Stride (2/1f) is so short. Looks a talking horse to me. River Proud (7/2) has better credentials. Tanya reckons Stubbs Art (5/1) will hose up if it runs. i'm not so sure and neither is anyone else. The rest of them have chances and I won't put you off backing any of the next 3, Alexandros (10/1), Atlantic Sport (11/1) and Duntulm (10/1) who are artificially big due to the favourite.
3.15
Lush Lashes (2/1, skybet) offers much better value than the 2.40 favourite. At least she's done the business. Halfway To Heaven (9/2, Coral, partybets) will give her most to do. Passage Of Time (13/2) surely hasn't got her softer ground and can't be backed. I fancy Majestic Roi (22/1, skybet) to run a big race and is definitely some e/w value.
3.50
The big one, The Steward's Cup. Good luck :0). Ok Anything can win. Borderlescott (12/1, partybets) won this 2 years ago, but can't get his head in front but 12/1 is fair. John Francome doesn't think Prime Defender (8/1) can win as he don't think he'll like Goodwood, that's good enough for me and he's too short anyway. The Morning Line was actually pretty decent today, Not sure it was Big Mac or birds shitting on Thommo. Yes it was the birds. Knot In Wood's been in fantastic form and 10/1 is a fair price. Barney McGrew (16/1, sportingbet) has already been clipped this morning and offers little value on form. King's Apostle (14/1) hasn't been mentioned anywhere and can't be ruled out. E/W I recommend Bentong @ 25/1 as a little value and Orpsie Boy (33/1) is consistent.
4.25
2yo race with a few newcomers, get Holyrood out of the money the only aim.
5.00
Another 2yo race, but a little more to go on. Ideally getting the favourite out of the frame is the aim and there is opportunity. Tishtar (7/2, partybets) is possibly the only one to command some respect and with the tipsbox giving 8 tips to Finnegan McCool (11/2) and Golden Rosie (11/2) the sheep will surely follow. Fault (6/1) steps up to 6f for the first time but is a danger if he gets it. Ideally we'd get 3 big prices in the places and the placepot is sorted. Not a great betting proposition but could make or break the dividend. Stop waffling.
5.35
Looks a good race, shame the market has it spot on. I like Count Ceprano (11/1), but I'd want bigger to back him. No bets.
Friday 1 August 2008
the other meetings
Thirsk
3.50
Amicable Terms (9/4f) is napped by the RP. Brilliant!!! Will be artificially short so I can find some value. Offshore Anna is a horse I've followed after her debut. Promise on her 3rd next time @ 18/1 and pushed on again last week (2nd). 5/1 today and can break her duck, however there is a little bit of value in Martingrange Lass (40/1) who looked like she has a race in her in the future. i'm on here because she could start a lot shorter. Not a tip of nap proportions but back to lay possiblities here. Get the 40/1 at bluesquare if you can. I have so it probably won't be there in a bit.
Bangor
2.30 Duke Of Touraine's short price offers some each-way thievery and if Tyrur Ted (10/1) ever gets to race the he offers some value. At even bigger prices but not guaranteed are Caltire (18/1) and Persistant (28/1). Nail those bookies...
Haydock
8.55 The Graig (20/1, Ladbrokes) is ridiculously big. Ladbrokes have made a rick and should be punished. He may come last, I don't care. He shouldn't be 20/1... EVER.
That's All Folks
3.50
Amicable Terms (9/4f) is napped by the RP. Brilliant!!! Will be artificially short so I can find some value. Offshore Anna is a horse I've followed after her debut. Promise on her 3rd next time @ 18/1 and pushed on again last week (2nd). 5/1 today and can break her duck, however there is a little bit of value in Martingrange Lass (40/1) who looked like she has a race in her in the future. i'm on here because she could start a lot shorter. Not a tip of nap proportions but back to lay possiblities here. Get the 40/1 at bluesquare if you can. I have so it probably won't be there in a bit.
Bangor
2.30 Duke Of Touraine's short price offers some each-way thievery and if Tyrur Ted (10/1) ever gets to race the he offers some value. At even bigger prices but not guaranteed are Caltire (18/1) and Persistant (28/1). Nail those bookies...
Haydock
8.55 The Graig (20/1, Ladbrokes) is ridiculously big. Ladbrokes have made a rick and should be punished. He may come last, I don't care. He shouldn't be 20/1... EVER.
That's All Folks
Goodwood day 63
Very happy with wednesdays tipping, giving Baddam and Love Galore, both at 16/1. Shaweel was nudged out of the frame on the line. Howdigo also placed. Went out of the placepot in Leg 4 (had the 4th) which would have paid out more than the £950 it did. If you got Mujood, you got a 2nd, if you chose Monkey Glas you got a good run but no cash...
The 4.50 @ Perth produced a very similar result to the day before with Eightfifysix (2nd) beating Fourpointone (3rd). both going down to a very good winner in Valerius. Northern Spy was backed into 8/1 before playing up before the race (according to RP) and running crappy. Worth watching out for again.
Goodwood
215
A nice little opener but i can't find an edge. I've never backed Sixties Icon (11/4), can't quite put my finger on it probably coz he's never offered the value or maybe the Morning Line/Racing Post have fawned over him like a newborn. Of the two I'd prefer Tranquil Tiger (5/1, sportingbet, partybets) who's a gutsy horse but I won't be having a bet in this. Stotsford (6/1) can't get in the frame this season and Galactic Star (5/1) split Sixties Icon and Tranquil Tiger in May and will be up there again. Lion Sands (11/1, bluesq) offers the best e/w value but not quite at an e/w price. :-(
250
a nice big handicap, so lets find a nice e/w bet. Express Wish (15/2f) is too short so avoid. The next half dozen or so just aren't backable in the 10-12 bracket even if they have decent chances. I want bigger in this size field. Having a quick lok at the trends suggest that there won't be a winner bigger than 10/1 (0/10) and Dandy Nicholls won the race 4 times in a row, but hasn't won for 6 years. So we're looking at a steamer in the market that will start @ 10/1.
Both Northern Dare (10/1) and Harrison George (10/1) have been nibbled this morning and both have their merits, I prefer the former of the two. Pusey Street Lady (28/1, bluesq) would be my tentative value selection but would like some more rain and I can't see it being soft enough for her. So all in all, not a betting proposition again...
330
A much bigger winner expected here just need to find some likely types. I backed Dhaular Dhar (16/1) in saturday's 2nd but steps up to a mile today. Won at Chester over a mile last season, but 7f is perfect. Badly drawn today. Masaalek (11/2) IS well drawn and worthy favourite, but wouldn't back it with stolen money at that price. Cape Hawk (11/1) is also well drawn and I fancy it's worth backing, but never like e/ws at less than 12/1, though with 1/4 odds available I guess it isn't soooo bad. Of the other well drawn horses, Dubai's Touch (10/1) looks like he already has his draw factored into his price coz he ain't "all that". Fifteen Love (6/1) is NO VALUE at all, and Huzzah (25/1, sportingbet) is a lovely horse (yes, I backed his win at Chester hehe) and I wouldn't put you off him at all at 25s... super price. At humungous prices and not terribly drawn in 8 & 9 are Regal Parade (20/1) and Vitznau (33/1, bluesq, skybet). Regal Parade beat the in-form Dhaular Dhar at Ascot and is a consistant sort who I expect to make the palces. Vitznau good 4th to Little White Lie at Epsom gives some confidence and he's a tough little cookie at a mouthwatering price. all in all its about time we had a bet and Regal Parade (20/1, boylesports 1/3 odds) and Vitznau look the e/w good things here. Huzzah is value but only at the 25/1 with sportingbet.
405
2yo races are not really my thing, so I can safely skip it. Oh Saxford (8/1, Ladbrokes) if i was there. do it in a toteswinger bet with Prolific (26/5, sportingbet).
440
Ditto.....
515
Fancied Our Faye (20/1, Ladbrokes, Hills) for a few races now and of course I was working when he won @ 12/1 last time. Very consistant and just the type to do something in this. Of the favs, Visit (13/5, sportingbet) is a bit short for a horse that always finds one too good. Red Dune (11/2, totesport) is nicely drawn and is one for the shortlist and Cheyenne Star (7/1, Vcbet, Ladbrokes, Hills), has the draw to overcome here and a topweight, but is star quality. all in all I'm with Our Faye at a tasty price.
550
Little Pete (16/1, Ladbrokes) looks a huge price considering he's a good horse. I'm ignoring his last run at Ascot as he was badly drawn. Lots of short priced horses that Pete can beat and I think he's a decent bet. Chartist (12/1) isn't quite the value of Little Pete, but another who's last run should be ignored and to concentrate on his consistant place record this season.
The 4.50 @ Perth produced a very similar result to the day before with Eightfifysix (2nd) beating Fourpointone (3rd). both going down to a very good winner in Valerius. Northern Spy was backed into 8/1 before playing up before the race (according to RP) and running crappy. Worth watching out for again.
Goodwood
215
A nice little opener but i can't find an edge. I've never backed Sixties Icon (11/4), can't quite put my finger on it probably coz he's never offered the value or maybe the Morning Line/Racing Post have fawned over him like a newborn. Of the two I'd prefer Tranquil Tiger (5/1, sportingbet, partybets) who's a gutsy horse but I won't be having a bet in this. Stotsford (6/1) can't get in the frame this season and Galactic Star (5/1) split Sixties Icon and Tranquil Tiger in May and will be up there again. Lion Sands (11/1, bluesq) offers the best e/w value but not quite at an e/w price. :-(
250
a nice big handicap, so lets find a nice e/w bet. Express Wish (15/2f) is too short so avoid. The next half dozen or so just aren't backable in the 10-12 bracket even if they have decent chances. I want bigger in this size field. Having a quick lok at the trends suggest that there won't be a winner bigger than 10/1 (0/10) and Dandy Nicholls won the race 4 times in a row, but hasn't won for 6 years. So we're looking at a steamer in the market that will start @ 10/1.
Both Northern Dare (10/1) and Harrison George (10/1) have been nibbled this morning and both have their merits, I prefer the former of the two. Pusey Street Lady (28/1, bluesq) would be my tentative value selection but would like some more rain and I can't see it being soft enough for her. So all in all, not a betting proposition again...
330
A much bigger winner expected here just need to find some likely types. I backed Dhaular Dhar (16/1) in saturday's 2nd but steps up to a mile today. Won at Chester over a mile last season, but 7f is perfect. Badly drawn today. Masaalek (11/2) IS well drawn and worthy favourite, but wouldn't back it with stolen money at that price. Cape Hawk (11/1) is also well drawn and I fancy it's worth backing, but never like e/ws at less than 12/1, though with 1/4 odds available I guess it isn't soooo bad. Of the other well drawn horses, Dubai's Touch (10/1) looks like he already has his draw factored into his price coz he ain't "all that". Fifteen Love (6/1) is NO VALUE at all, and Huzzah (25/1, sportingbet) is a lovely horse (yes, I backed his win at Chester hehe) and I wouldn't put you off him at all at 25s... super price. At humungous prices and not terribly drawn in 8 & 9 are Regal Parade (20/1) and Vitznau (33/1, bluesq, skybet). Regal Parade beat the in-form Dhaular Dhar at Ascot and is a consistant sort who I expect to make the palces. Vitznau good 4th to Little White Lie at Epsom gives some confidence and he's a tough little cookie at a mouthwatering price. all in all its about time we had a bet and Regal Parade (20/1, boylesports 1/3 odds) and Vitznau look the e/w good things here. Huzzah is value but only at the 25/1 with sportingbet.
405
2yo races are not really my thing, so I can safely skip it. Oh Saxford (8/1, Ladbrokes) if i was there. do it in a toteswinger bet with Prolific (26/5, sportingbet).
440
Ditto.....
515
Fancied Our Faye (20/1, Ladbrokes, Hills) for a few races now and of course I was working when he won @ 12/1 last time. Very consistant and just the type to do something in this. Of the favs, Visit (13/5, sportingbet) is a bit short for a horse that always finds one too good. Red Dune (11/2, totesport) is nicely drawn and is one for the shortlist and Cheyenne Star (7/1, Vcbet, Ladbrokes, Hills), has the draw to overcome here and a topweight, but is star quality. all in all I'm with Our Faye at a tasty price.
550
Little Pete (16/1, Ladbrokes) looks a huge price considering he's a good horse. I'm ignoring his last run at Ascot as he was badly drawn. Lots of short priced horses that Pete can beat and I think he's a decent bet. Chartist (12/1) isn't quite the value of Little Pete, but another who's last run should be ignored and to concentrate on his consistant place record this season.
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