Grand National contenders rated

Lord Windermere 9-11-10 ***

Gold Cup winner in 2014, but disappointed in this year's. Definitely stays a trip, but unproven over 4 miles and will be lumbering top weight around here.

Many Clouds 8-11-9 **

Won the Hennessey well, but would have expected better than 6th in the Gold Cup on soft ground he prefers. Unproven over 4 miles and has a big weight here. Although 8-year olds have won many Nationals, the 10 year record is 0-71, so that's a negative at the moment.

Unioniste 7-11-6 **

Decent 3 miler, just shy of top class. Only 7 (no 7yo has placed in last 10 years, no winner since WW2). Plenty of weight for such a young horse and off the track for slightly too long.

Rocky Creek 9-11-3 ***

Ran really well last year before running out of puff and finished 5th. Geared all season to go better this year, however still no win past 3m or place form over further. Well in at the weights after good Betbright Chase win last time, but place chance likely at best.

First Lieutenant 10-11-3 ****

Ticks a lot of boxes but doesn't really look the type to win this. No win for 2 years and looks like your typical out of form 3 miler who won't get round.

Balthazar King 11-11-2 ****

2nd last year where his prep included the Cheltenham Cross Country (won). This year they've wrapped him in cotton wool and hasn't run since December. Bad decision I'm afraid. Does go well 'fresh', but place chance on good ground at best.

Shutthefrontdoor 8-11-2 **

The likely favourite in Tony McCoy's last National. Won the Irish National in 2014, but has plenty of negatives as well. Firstly this 8-year old's only had 6 Chase starts and has been off for 152 days having won his only race this season.

Pineau De Re 12-11-0 ****

Last years winner. Now a 12 year old and higher in the weights. Although he could win, it's more likely he'll finish just outside the money. Place at best.

Ballycasey 8-10-13 ***

8yo out of form 21/2 miler, with only 9 chase starts. Can't be trusted.

Spring Heeled 8-10-12 ***

2 runs this year, beaten quite a way in both. Cheltenham winner last season, but this 8-yo might

find it tough out there.

Rebel Rebellion 10-10-12 ****

Yet to win over 3 miles under rules and has 7 runs this season. A flaky 4 star. Pulled-up!

Dolatulo 8-10-11 ***

Just 8 years old. Won a 22k chase is a minor blemish, but lack of form at a staying trip a big concern.

Mon Parrain 9-10-11 ****

Could be anything, can't string 2 good runs together. Similar to Dolatulo but older. Ground will be fine for him.

Carlito Brigante - NON RUNNER

Night In Milan 9-10-9 *****

Perfect on the trends.... Ground is fine. No experience of Aintree fences only worry and Best RPR of 149 is a tick below what the last 8 winners had achieved.

Rubi Light 10-10-9 ****

Basically a 2 & 1/2 miler. Ticks lots of boxes, but shouldn't be winning this.

The Druids Nephew 8-10-9 ****

Good win at Cheltenham and has 10lbs in hand here. He is only 8 and a technical minus 2nd over 3m31/2f

Cause Of Causes 7-10-9 ****

Good win in the 4 miler at Cheltenham, but form hardly franked in the Irish National. He's only 8 and is American-bred (although can't be many runners who were)

Godsmejudge 9-10-8 *****

Ticks all the right boxes, but not in form at all this season, beaten 100 lengths last 2 starts.

1st and 2nd in last 2 Scottish Nationals, so is well respected if back to old form on ground he'll love.

Al Co 10-10-8 *****

Won the Scottish National last year. Pulled-up over these fences in December, but primed to run his race after 2 runs over hurdles last time. Denis O'Regan rides after Jamie Moore broke his leg last week.

Monbeg Dude 10-10-7 *****

Will stay all day, but needs softer ground as he's a bit one-paced. Hold-up tactics not great for a national winner as proved last year in 'a staying-on past beaten horses' 7th. Likely same again.

Corrin Wood 8-10-7 **

Just 7 runs over fences and off for 84 days not ideal. Only an 8yo with just an £11k win to his name and no staying chase form to his name. Avoid.

The Rainbow Hunter 11-10-7 ***

Yet to win past 3 miles 1/2f, including failing to get past fence 9 in 2 runs in this. UK-bred with only 1 run (pulled-up) this season.

Saint Are 9-10-6 ****

Off for slightly longer than the last 10 winners, but nothing to worry about, and 3rd in a 3m31/2f Chase not the worst negative in the world. 3rd in the Becher Chase and 9th in this 2 years ago.

Across The Bay 11-10-6 ****

Very unlucky last year when carried off the course by a loose horse when going well. Ran on for 14th in the end, but badly out of form this year.

Tranquil Sea 13-10-5 **

Veteran 2 & 1/2 miler and has just the 1 run this season. Avoid.

Oscar Time 14-10-5 *****

Now 14 years old, so unlikely to improve on his 2 places in this race in 2011 & 2013. Age his only negative though and won the Becher Chase in December so still has it, but place chance at very best and more likely 8th or 9th.

Bob Ford 8-10-4 ****

Would be the lowest rated winner on RPR for many a year, but has lots of ticks. He's an 8yo with a £21k Chase win to his name, so only minor negatives there. Ffos Las marathon win flattering as only real finisher (2nd initially refused and miles behind) Heart says no, head says no, trends say maybe.

Super Duty 9-10-4 **

9 chase starts and no win past 2m5f. Just 2 runs this year and only a £12k win to his name.

Hard to see him featuring this year.

Wyck Hill 11-10-4 *****

Thorough stayer and certainly not the worst 50/1 shot you will ever see. Only 2 runs this year and

may just want the ground softer these days. Don't throw away that sweepstake ticket.

Gas Line Boy 9-10-4 *****

Stepped up to marathon trips this season but no Hurdles prep like many winners with this their main target. Didn't last the Welsh National on bad ground, so this likelier to suit. has a chance.

Chance Du Roy 11-10-4 ***

6th last season, and now a year stronger. Just 2 runs this year a worry and just off too long

for ideal and 'out of form' (5th twice not the worst runs you'll see). 6th again seems about right.

Portrait King 10-10-3 ****

Just a £21k win to his name and a chase RPR of 145 would make him the worst rated winner of the decade. That's all his negatives, but just 1 win in last 3 years.

Owega Star 8-10-3 **

No win at 3 miles yet, another bad RPR rating and just a £10k win to his name, and no form over a trip. No chance.

River Choice 12-10-3 **

Very similar failings to Owega Star. Its a no from me.

Court By Surprise 10-10-3 ***

Off for 154 days, with just 2 runs this season and rated 145 on RPR. Ground a plus for him though.

Alvarado 10-10-3 ***

Stayed on for 4th after being held-up last year. Think he needs to be 'up there' to win. Obviously targeting this race, but just 1 run this season a major negative and still the same minor negatives (£28k win, form not 'great', not top 3 in 3m4f race).

Soll 10-10-2 ***

Only 2 runs since August (did run in France in May). No decent form in marathons, UK-Bred and just an £18k win to his name are his negatives, but in good form with ground that will suit and 7lbs well in with the handicapper. Better than his 3 stars suggests. Place chance.

Ely Brown 10-10-2 ***

Tough to see him troubling the business end of the race. Just 4 starts over fences, 1 run this season

(pulled-up 70 days ago), no form at a rip and just an £18k win to his name.

Royale Knight 9-10-2 ****

Trainer won this last year. Would be the worst rated winner for many a year B.RPR 140 and UK-bred with just a £16k win to his name. Could run well, but not good enough to win. Ground will be fine.

CONCLUSION

Of the 2 perfect horses, NIGHT IN MILAN (33/1) will also like the ground, whereas Monbeg Dude would prefer a bit more cut and is likely to be held-up whih isn't ideal.

AL CO (33/1) is basically perfect, French-breds (once a negative) have won 3 of the last 6 after none in 100 years before 2009.

GODSMEJUDGE (20/1) out of form, but goes well this time of year on this sort of ground and has to be considered although 20/1 is about right for him.

GAS LINE BOY (66/1) is one at a price who could go well for a place.

Good luck and don't forget to take a price on your selections.

Grand National 2015 - Trends Analysed

Grand National 2015 - Trends Analysed

Grand National Analysis

Last year was great and terrible for me. With the likelihood of heavy rain coming in - it didn't - I went for soft ground horses, when in fact my faster ground horses would have finished 1st, 2nd, 4th and 6th. On closer inspection PINEAU DE RE was happy in any ground, but didn't carry my money. This year will be Tony McCoy's last Grand National ride and if he wins probably his last ride anywhere. Shutthefrontdoor will start off one of the shortest and poorest value favourites in donkey's years.

Anyway lets get on with the show.
 

The following trends are strong and should be adhered to.

Aged 8-12
No horse outside of this age range has won a Grand National since 1940 when Bogskar (aged 7) took the honours. The last horse older than 12 was Sergeant Murphy (aged 13) who won in 1923. Horses younger than 7 are now prevented from competing, they couldn't win anyway and need protecting from over-enthusiastic trainers and owners.
The last 3 winners were 11, and the last 10 winners were all aged between 9 and 11 years old. We can't rule out the 8 and 12 year olds, but they can't afford to miss too many trends.
Only one 8 year-old has won the race since 1992, Bindaree, in 2002. Amberleigh House won well as a 12 year old in 2004, the only one that old since 1995.

10 Year Trends (won-placed-runners) 
aged 6/7  0-0-25

aged 8     0-7-71

aged 9     3-11-103

aged 10   4-6-105

aged 11   3-5-67

aged 12   0-1-28

aged 13   0-0-9

aged 14   0-0-2

No horse outside the 8-12 age range has even placed in 10 years from 36 runners  

Winning form over at least 3 miles
Not since Gay Trip won the race in 1970 has the winner previously not won a race over at least 3 miles. It seems logical that if you haven't won a race at 3 miles or more, you won't win one at 4m 31/2f.

To go a bit further, all of the previous 11 winners had won a chase over 3 miles, 1 furlong and 10 of the last 11 winners had finished top 3 in a 3½ mile+  Chase, with Neptune Collonges (the exception) winning a 3¼ m Chase.

Carrying less than 11st 6lbs
The best horse in the race will carry the biggest weight, but they don't often win the Grand National. It's a huge burden to lump nearly 12 stone around 41/2 miles and it takes it toll.

Last year, only 1 horse that carried more than 11 stone got within 115 lengths on the winner. The year before 1 horse got within 50 lengths.

The bottom weights are back to near 10 stone and I still think this is a good stat to adhere to. I'm still tempted to say that 11 stone is the cut-off, but I'm only ruling out horses above that line if they've failed other trends. A good line to take is to rule out horses that carry more than 14lbs more than the bottom weight (this year 10-02). So the cut off is 11-02, though to be on the safe side rule out the top 3 on the racecard).

Grand National hero Red Rum (twice) was the last horse previous to Neptune Collonges (2012) horse to carry more than 11-05 in the National and win and before that Sundew in 1957.

Officially Rated between 136-155
This trend will rule out many of the horses that the previous one does, but also catches out those really crap horses that used to run at the bottom of the handicap but now rarely get in the race, and can be used to dump these horses at the first declaration stage. Neptune Collonges was rated 157, but this stat dumps the bottom weights this time. This year there are unlikely to be any horses rated this low.



Must have run within the previous 56 days
Was 49 days, but Neptune Collonges was 7 days longer and leeway can be given. I don't want anything with more than 70 days. I want race fit horses. I don't want Shutthefrontdoor and Balthazar King (2nd last year) as they've both been off for well over 100 days.

 

Rough Quest had a break of only 16 days in 1996.

Horses need to be race fit to win this and horses start losing their edge after a long break, either enforced or otherwise. We want a horse that is ready to race and ready to win.


Had finished in the first 3 in one of his last 3 starts.
Every horse needs to be in some sort of form, not necessarily winning form as we don't want that pesky handicapper finding us out do we. Even the hopelessly out of form 100/1 shot, Mon Mome, in 2009, managed a 2nd in the January of that year. Of course Auroras Encore wasn't placed in his previous 7 races to throw that out of the window but he'd run well in some decent Graded races. His last form was the previous April with a quality 2^nd in the Scottish National. 
 


Have run in at least 9 Chases
Horses need good jumping experience to win the Grand National. Every winner since Miinnehoma (9 Chase races) in 1994 has run in at least 10 Chases. You may want to give those with 9 races under their belt, like Ballycasey and Super Duty, the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't want to be affording Shutthefrontdoor (6) or Ely Brown (4) the same.



Have won a chase worth at least £29,000
You still need to be classy enough to win the National. Bad horses still don't win. The horses at the lower end of the handicap will need to be scrutinised for this trend. Last years winner won a £13,000 race, so leeway should be given if they tick most of the other boxes.



Have raced between 3 and 6 times since August
Missed prep races, setbacks in training, bad planning and over-raced horses will find it tough to win the Grand National. Miinnehoma had only 2 races in the 1993-94 season before his win. Every winner since has had 4-6 runs, until Ballabriggs (with 3) broke that, but was so strong on all the other trends he was a must bet. Favourite Shutthefrontdoor (1 run in November) and Balthazar King (1 run in December) will need to overcome this negative.



Conclusion: Winning Profile
Aged 8-12
Won over more than 3 miles
Top 3 finish in a 3¼ mile Chase

Carrying less than 11-07
OR between 137-157
Last run between 20-56 days ago
9+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £13k to the winner
Between 3-6 runs since August 

If you want to refine it further Perfect Profile
Aged 9 to 11
Won a 3m1f Chase
Top 3 in a 3m4f+ Chase

Carrying less than 11-02
Last run between 20-56 days ago
10+ Chases

Won a race worth more than £29k to the winner
Between 4-6 runs since August


Good Luck