Thursday 7 April 2016

Grand National Contenders Rated

Many Clouds     8/1fav     ****
Last years victor and a worthy favourite this year, lots of boxes ticked, must go close, but has a star lopped off because low-weights are still favoured.

Silviniaco Conti     12/1     ***
Classy multiple Grade 1 winner at 3 miles, but yet to prove his stamina at marathon trips and again has a big weight to carry.

First Lieutenant     40/1     ***
lots of miles on the clock now and not your typical staying type, 16th last year a good 90 lengths behind the winner, hard to see him getting any closer this year.

Wonderful Charm     50/1     **
Only 1 run this season for this 8 year old, since pulling up in his only try at an extended trip in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown, a major surprise if he won this.

Ballynagour     66/1     ***
Not a guaranteed stayer at 3 miles and has been continually beaten over that trip this season, avoid.

O’Faolains Boy     33/1     ***
Had injury problems since his RSA Chase victory 2 years ago at Cheltenham, 7th in the Gold Cup and this looks a bit too early in his career to be winning this.

Gilgamboa     66/1     ***
Yet to win at 3 miles and another to ignore.

On His Own     50/1     ***
This 12 year old could have won the Cheltenham Gold Cup 2 years ago, powers on the wain since and has fallen in both attempts in this race in 2012, 2013.

The Druids Nephew     16/1     *****
Has an excellent chance in my opinion. Fell on landing last year 5 fences out when going the best. A little too highly rated than most historical winners, but only carries 11 stone with some talented horses running above him.

Troilo D’Alene     33/1     ****
Former Hennessy Gold Cup Winner (2013) and still only a 9 year old, however pulled-up 2 years ago and was off the track for a year until January and so only has 2 runs this season.

Rocky Creek     66/1     ****
Out of sorts this season and chance probably went 2 years ago when 5th (lead 3 fences out before fading). 17th last year. 4 stars is generous.

Sir Des Champs     40/1     ****
Classy Grade 1 winner in his pomp (2nd in 2013 Gold Cup), just not firing now at that level. Never raced past the Gold Cup distance either. Off the track for 63 days not ideal.

Holywell     16/1     *****
Excellent 2nd in the 3 mile handicap at Cheltenham, which is a good preperation race for this. Usually a good jumper and has a chance although not tried a marathon trip before.

Shutthefrontdoor     20/1     ****
5th last year was excellent considering he had just 7 Chase runs under his belt. Trouble is he's only raced twice this season and his only Chase was tailed off before pulling up. Place chance at best.

Soll     50/1     ****
7th and 9th in this so knows how to get round, excuses last year, but isn't getting any younger and any chance may have gone.

Buywise     66/1     ***
This is the Buywise story, he gets held-up because he can't jump, then as he gets into a jumping rhythm he moves through the field to finish an unlucky 2nd, 3rd or 4th. He's been off for 70 days and hasn't won past 2m7f yet. Paul Moloney (placed in the last 7 Grand Nationals) is on board, so he may have a place chance. 

Boston Bob     25/1     ****
Out of sorts for 2 years before winning the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February. Talented, but could have achieved much more. Stamina to prove and only 2 runs since a July run in the Galway Plate (13th, always behind).

Aachen     100/1     ***
He's a 12yo who's basically a 3 miler, and his biggest win was in December for (£25k) although that was over 3m2f. Beaten 120 lengths in his last 2 starts. He's also British-bred (last win 2001, Red Marauder). 

Morning Assembly     25/1     ***
Back from almost 2 years off in January, on the right track in 4th behind Holywell, but untested past 3 miles 1 and has just the 8 Chases so far and biggest win is £20k.

Double Ross     80/1     ***
If he wins, he will be the new Gay Trip. No win past 2m5f. usually front runs and runs out of puff in 3 mile races, may have to be held-up here.

Goonyella     20/1     *****
Perfect 5 stars. Midlands Grand National winner last season, then 2nd in the Scottish National a month later. Had a couple of hurdles spins, so this has been his aim all season. However only 9th in only spin over these fences in December. 

Ucello Conti     25/1     ***
French horse, now trained by National winning trainer Gordon Elliott, Just 3 runs for him and decent runs the last 2 times stepped up to 3 miles, however 79 days off, and obviously untested at a trip. Can't rule out, as his trainer had the golden touch in handicaps at Cheltenham, but would be an unusual winner.

Unioniste     33/1     *****
Fell at the 5th last year, the only time he's not completed in a 28 race career. Won a 3m2f 4 runner affair in February, so not much form at a trip, ticks lots of boxes, hmmm just doesn't look the National type to me.

Le Reve     50/1     ****
No win past 3 miles yet, but a decent performance in the Bet365 Gold Cup, could plod into a place, but unlikely to win.

Gallant Oscar     20/1     ****
No staying Chase form, no form recently either, shouldn't be good enough and a lucky 4 stars horse.

Onenightinvienna     50/1     **
Just 4 chase starts and yet to win over 3 miles. Difficult to see the 7 year-old novice featuring.

The Last Samurai     10/1     ****
Backed into 2nd fav after a 10 length beating of the The Druids Nephew, in the Grimthorpe Chase. No experience of a trip, but not failed to disappoint over 3m2f so far, so more to come. Only 8 chase starts so far his only negative.

Kruzlinin     25/1     **
10th 2 years ago, when a 7yo. Won at 3 miles, but not further and no place form at a trip. Olny won a 12k race so far and has just the 2 runs this season after a year out. 

Rule The World     50/1     ***
2nd in last year's Irish National, but no runs at that distance before or since. 0/13 in his career must mean a place is the best he can hope for.

Just A Par     50/1     *****
Perfect trends. Won the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown last April staying on strongly, so the distance won't be a problem, but struggled this season, beaten over 80 lengths in his 3 races and a run just 18 days ago to get a run into him and possibly some confidence back after some indifferent jumping.

Katenko     66/1     ***
Badly out of form lately, and just 1 win at 3 miles so far, best to leave alone, lucky to be 3 stars.

Vics Canvas     66/1     ****
He's 13 now, so he can't win, although he was an excellent 2nd to Just a Par at Sandown, but nothing shown this year as age may have caught up with him.

Black Thunder     66/1     **
Not shown anything so far this season, and chase wins over a bare 3 miles are getting me excited, his biggest chase win just £17k.

Ballycasey     80/1     ****
Brought down early last year, but he's basically a 21/2m horse, and really shouldn't be 4 stars. An unlikely finisher.

Hadrian’s Approach     66/1     ****
Just one run in a year, stamina no problems, but all his 3 runs since winning the Bet365 Gold Cup 2 years ago have been disappointing.

Vieux Lion Rouge     66/1     **
Just a 7yo novice with 6 starts. Not this year.

Pendra     66/1     **
Not really the national type, been around for ages but just 9 starts over fences, and off for 4 months.

Saint Are     16/1     *****
Perfect trendswise, 2nd last year, and should have an excellent chance if the ground dries out. Bit worried that he was risked in a Cross-Country chase at Cheltenham, then disappointed in the Becher Chase back here. Bounced back at Doncaster last time.

Home Farm     100/1     **
No 3 mile form and just 2 starts this season. Biggest win is £13k and nothing to write home about form-wise in his lst 3 starts.

The Romford Pele     50/1     *****
Not sure he'll be suited by this stiffer test, but has won over 3m2f and may run on into a place if he can avoid the trouble out the back.

Reserves
Bishops Road     33/1     *****
Shame he hasn't go in, but is first reserve until tomorrow morning. Ran throughout the summer, so only 2 runs since August, but all winning form is on soft or heavy. Romped home in the National Trial at Haydock (heavy ground) in first run at a trip. If hedoes get in, I don't think the price will last as punters will latch onto trainer Kerry Lee, who has already won some big races this season (incl Welsh National) in her first season training after taking over from her dad, Richard.

Knock House     100/1     ***
Decent 4th in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham, but little staying form and as a 7 year old, with an £11k win to his name, may be another year.

Perfect Candidate     66/1     ****
Has been tackling staying chases this season with mixed success, hasn't really achived too much and has just a £12k chase win to his name/

Maggio     150/1     ***
Not shown to be good enough so far and no form past 3 miles.

Another grand national where the weather is changeable, currently its soft with a bit of good to soft, but there is rain forecast on friday night, but dry most of the rest of the time. I expect it will be similar to now.

Shortlist
It's very hard to crab anyone choosing Many Clouds (8/1fav), as he's a very good chance of following up with back to back wins, however 8/1 is too short for me, although he may appear in some combination bets. The Druids Nephew (16/1), was going well last year before falling, I think he can run well again. Sir Des Champs (40/1) has stamina doubts, and prefers softer ground, so he's not on my radar. Holywell (16/1) will like better ground, so that has to put him in doubt with the current forecasts. Soll (50/1) will like soft, but isn't good enough anymore. Goonyella (20/1) has run well on soft and good at marathon trips even if his trainer says he wants the rain. Unioniste (33/1) struggles in big fields, but does like any ground. The Last Samurai (10/1) looks on the upgrade, but is a little inexperienced for the usual winner, especially at this price, he's another for the the combi-tricast. Just A Par (50/1) blows hot a cold, but needs better ground anyway. Saint Are (16/1) goes ok on soft ground, but I think good/soft is better for him, he loves Aintree. The Romford Pele (50/1) ticks a lot of boxes, but does prefer better ground. He may get a place.

My each-way bets

THE DRUIDS NEPHEW (16/1, general)
GOONYELLA (20/1, general)
SAINT ARE (16/1, general)

Make sure you get 5 places online. If you are going to the betting shop, ask for the price, Paddy Power should do 5 places on the high street, possibly betfred, but they might not have the best price.

If the ground goes heavy, or good/soft or better, then I may have to revise the selections, but all 3 should be comfortable on any ground.

good luck

Monday 4 April 2016

Grand National 2016 - Trends Analysis

Many Clouds burst plenty of trends last year, mainly the weight he carried (11st 9lbs), and therefore his Official Rating (160).  Red Rum (12st) in 1974 is the only horse to carry more than 11-09, although the top weight is now 11-10. However, only one of the 14 behind Many Clouds carried more than 11 stone. He was also the first 8 year old to win since Bindaree in 2002. Only 2 8yo's have won since Party Politics in 1992. Many Clouds could easily be the first horse since Red Rum to win back to back Nationals.

We will again try to find the winner and maybe a forecast/tricast for the race using the methods that seem to apply year on year.



Age - Horses aged 8-12.
No horse outside of this age range has won a Grand National since 1940 when Bogskar (aged 7) took the honours. The last horse older than 12 was Sergeant Murphy (aged 13) who won in 1923. Horses younger than 7 are now prevented from competing, they couldn't win anyway and need protecting from over-enthusiastic trainers and owners.
Now 9 of the last 10 winners were all aged between 9 and 11 years old. Amberleigh House won well as a 12 year old in 2004, the only one that old since 1995, however horses outside the 8-11 age range have just 1 place from 65 runners in the last 10 years (Oscar Time (4th) in 2013).

10 Year Trends (won-placed-runners)
aged 6/7  0-0-25
aged 8     1-6-63
aged 9     2-12-104
aged 10   4-7-107
aged 11   3-4-61
aged 12   0-1-28
aged 13   0-0-9
aged 14   0-0-3



Distance Win - Winning form over at least 3 miles, preferably 3m1f+
Not since Gay Trip won the race in 1970 has the winner previously not won a race over at least 3 miles. It seems logical that if you haven't won a race at 3 miles or more, you won't win one at 4m 21/2f.

To go a bit further, all of the previous 12 winners had won a chase over 3m1f, and 9 of the last 12 had a top 3 finish over 3m 21/2f or further. The fences may be 'easier' and the distance 'shorter' (one through moving the start 200yds and the other when all racecoures were remeasured) but stamina is still extremely important at a marathon trip.



Weight Carried
Many Clouds bashed this one up last year, however I still want to be on horses carrying less weight, as most in behind him were carrying 11 stone or less. But we now can't rule out any horse, with 3 of the last 6 winners carrying a weight that for the previous 25 renewals of the race was impossible to win with.

In 2013 only 1 horse within 50 lengths carried more than 11st.
In 2014 only 1 horse within 115 lengths carried more than 11st.
In 2015 only 1 horse within 90 lengths carried more than 11st.



Race Fitness - Must have run within the previous 56 days
Was 49 days, but Neptune Collonges (2012) was 7 days longer and lee-way can be given. I can only find data going back to 1989 and every winner has run within 56 days.

Rough Quest had a break of only 16 days in 1996.

Horses need to be race fit to win this and horses start losing their edge after a long break, either enforced or otherwise. We want a horse that is ready to race and ready to win.



Form - Had finished in the first 3 in one of his last 3 starts.
Every horse needs to be in some sort of form, not necessarily winning form as we don't want that pesky handicapper finding us out do we. Even the hopelessly out of form 100/1 shot, Mon Mome, in 2009, managed a 2nd in the January of that year. Of course Auroras Encore wasn't placed in his previous 7 races to throw that out of the window but he'd run well in some decent Graded races. His last form was the previous April with a quality 2nd in the Scottish National.
 


Experience - Have run in at least 9 Chases
Horses need good jumping experience to win the Grand National. Every winner since Miinnehoma (9 Chase races) in 1994 has run in at least 10 Chases. You may want to give those with 9 races under their belt, the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't want to be affording others the same.



Class - Have won a chase worth at least £29,000
You still need to be classy enough to win the National. Bad horses still don't win. The horses at the lower end of the handicap will need to be scrutinised for this trend. Pineau De Reu won a £13,000 race, so leeway can be given if they tick most of the other boxes, but every other winner since Party Politics in 1992 had won a £17,000 Chase.



Season Runs - Have raced between 3 and 6 times since August
Missed prep races, setbacks in training, bad planning and over-raced horses will find it tough to win the Grand National. Miinnehoma had only 2 races in the 1993-94 season before his win. Every winner since has had 4-6 runs, until Ballabriggs (with 3) broke that, but was so strong on all the other trends he was a must bet. We are looking for horses that have been kept ticking over throughout the season without going over the top.


Conclusion: Winning Profile
Aged 8-12
Won over more than 3 miles
Top 3 finish in a 3¼ mile Chase
Last run between 20-56 days ago
9+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £13k to the winner
Between 3-6 runs since August

If you want to refine it further

Perfect Profile
Aged 8 to 11
Won a 3m1f Chase
Top 3 in a 3m4f+ Chase
Carrying less than 11-02
Last run between 20-56 days ago
10+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £29k to the winner
Between 4-6 runs since August


Good Luck