a totally shit day today.... Looks like we must avoid horses that did well at Cheltenham as its taken a lot out of them and Aintree is an afterthought for many..... gonna bypass tomorrow as its an early start for me on GN day..
You have the trends for the National... so hopefully we'll have a result there..
good luck for tomorrow..
VH
Saturday 10 April 2010
Friday 9 April 2010
Aintree - Day Two
Not the greatest day yesterday, got out of Jail with Sir Harry Ormesher winning the last and What A Friend coming in too, so we should have a little money for today.
2.00 - John Smith's Top Novices' Hurdle
This should all be about Menorah (6/4f) who won the Supreme Novice's Hurdle at Cheltenham. I won't put you off him but surprise winners at Cheltenham don't often follow up at Aintree. I saw Escort'Men (11/4)hack up at Kempton and there must be more to come from the Nicholls/Walsh combination. La Sarrazine (11/2) seems to be well regarded and has avoided the limelight so far. He may be come up a little short but until we see it we can't really tell, the 4/1-9/2 generally around is far too short. General Miller (12/1) decided to depart at the first fence of the Festival. There was money for him that day and the bookies aren't giving too much away today. Outsider Washington Irvine (25/1) could be the forgotten horse, he didn't run at Cheltenham but is similar to La Sarazine. The former Group 1 flat racer needs to prove he can hack it at the highest level, 25/1 is overpricing him though. I may be tempted.
2.35 - Mildmay Novices' Chase
Burton Port (5/2f) is up and coming, a worthy favourite with an excellent 2nd in the RSA Chase. Ogee (9/2) was pricewised last time and he just failed to beat Chief Dan George and The Package in the William Hill Trophy. Both of these should be up there. Not really anything each-wayable. Khachaturian (12/1) is an honest enough front-runner, but is likely to set up the race for something else. I backed Door Boy (16/1) at Cheltenham, but he isn't suited to this imho.
3.10 - John Smith's Melling Chase
Forpadydeplaster (5/1) and Kalahari King (4/1f) renew rivalries here. Pady has beaten him twice and should come on for his Cheltenham 2nd, yet KK is favourite... hmmmm. KK does like Aintree, but he was seriously under par at Cheltenham with ground that should have suited. It definitely does today, but I'd rather be with Pady. Throw in Albertas Run (15/2), Poquelin (6/1), Monet's Garden (8/1) and Deep Purple (9/1) and you probably have the best race at the the meeting. There is nothing else to say really. Schinfdler's Hunt (16/1) was shite at Cheltenham but is a better horse than that day. Sit back and enjoy this race.
3.45 Topham Handicap Chase
Super, a 28 runner handicap to get my teeth into. With Scotsirish (20/1) being by far the best horse in the race, most of the field will be running from out of the handicap. I'm going to concentrate on the bottom 20 or so... just kidding. I'll start at the bottom and look to back 2-4 horses. Garleton, Oulart, Boomshakalaka, Pomme Tiepy, Commemoration Day and Gaora Lane are too far out of the handicap imho and I will leave them alone. Pak Jack (20/1) has had his moments in the past and has now got his ground. I certainly think he has a big run in him. Quilmar (22/1) is 6 but has plenty of experience, hasn't run on ground as fast as this, but if he goes on it is pretty interesting. Wee Robbie (20/1) has been running in some big races this season, this is more like his sort of race and I won't put you off. He runs better on Good-Soft but is ok on Good. Zacharova (100/1) doesn't do it in big fields, so should be ignored. Oodachee (16/1) was 2nd last year, he's now 11 and hasn't won any money this year, probably best watched.
You need experience of big fields and more than a little luck. A very hard race to pick the winner and I'm always a bottom of the handicap sort of guy, so apologies if something up the top comes along and wins but it shouldn't. I'm probably on Wee Robbie, Quilmar and Pak Jack.
4.20 - Sefton Novice's Hurdle
Right, lets get this out of the way first. I've followed Channinbar for about 6 months. The first time he placed at big odds, he then did bugger all at shorter odds, then he wins after I don't back him. I've then decided that he should be followed and he pulls-up. You out pal.... no more...... Channinbar hosed up at 20/1 yesterday.
I know I'm right, I just need to be right at the right time. So apologies if I channel all by pain into stupidly following Chimirey in this. He was 3rd at Cheltenham @ 33/1 and I was on, but it covered my other bets in the race. If he's come out of Cheltenham ok then he'll be up there. I'll give Western Leader (11/2) a thumbs up too, but i'm focussed on Chimirey here. Probably best to ignore my thoughts and back what you want. Chimirey WILL win a race at nice odds, let's hope its this one.
4.55 - John Smitrh's Handicap Hurdle
Whinestone Boy (14/1) was secretly fancied for the National and this is a poor consolation. I think the bookies have shortened him up because they're afraid. Its not often I big up a favourite, but Cross Kennon (9/1f) does look a good think at an ok price, he's not each way able so I will try and find some value. Clova Island is stepped up to 3 miles. He's been my friend this season. 14/1 is a fair price but nothing exceptional in that respect. Wow I think I've found a decent thing at 25/1. Not sure why Dancing Dik is 25/1. Form at the distance, form on the ground, not got the Class 1 form but how many do. A good 2nd at Newcastle LTO could be the springboard for a shock. Definitely a placepot pick with the other 2.
5.30 National Hunt Flat Race
The 40/1 winner of the Cheltenham Bumper bashed up all the trends, none of those runners are here. I don't like short priced rookies. The bookies have all the form in the book and there is little value in them. Personally I think its a stay away race, especially if we have bookies money in the bank. A small cheeky bet on Lovey Dovey (22/1) may be preferred but I'm only saying it because I feel I have to say something. A win on Good ground is all we have to go on, but I'm happy to bet it to small stakes.
Selections:
2.00
Win: Menorah @ 13/8fav
E/W: Washington Irvine @ 25/1 (general)
2.35
Win: Burton Port @ 3/1fav (stan James)
E/W: Khachaturian @ 14/1 (Bet365, William Hill)
3.20
No Bet
3.45
E/W: Wee Robbie @ 20/1 (Bet365)
E/W: Quilimar @ 20/1 (Bet365, PaddyPower - both 5 places)
E:W: Pak Jack @ 20/1 (general, but get 5 places)
4.20
Win: Western Leader @ 11/2fav
E/W: Chimirey @ 12/1 (general, Bet365 and Ladbrokes are 1/4 odds)
4.55
Win: Cross Kennon @ 9/1fav (general)
E/W: Dancing Dik @ 25/1 (bet365, Coral)
E/W: Clova Island @ 14/1 (Bet365, Sportingbet, Coral)
5.30
E/W: Lovey Dovey @ 22/1 (Sportingbet, Coral)
Fingers crossed
VH
2.00 - John Smith's Top Novices' Hurdle
This should all be about Menorah (6/4f) who won the Supreme Novice's Hurdle at Cheltenham. I won't put you off him but surprise winners at Cheltenham don't often follow up at Aintree. I saw Escort'Men (11/4)hack up at Kempton and there must be more to come from the Nicholls/Walsh combination. La Sarrazine (11/2) seems to be well regarded and has avoided the limelight so far. He may be come up a little short but until we see it we can't really tell, the 4/1-9/2 generally around is far too short. General Miller (12/1) decided to depart at the first fence of the Festival. There was money for him that day and the bookies aren't giving too much away today. Outsider Washington Irvine (25/1) could be the forgotten horse, he didn't run at Cheltenham but is similar to La Sarazine. The former Group 1 flat racer needs to prove he can hack it at the highest level, 25/1 is overpricing him though. I may be tempted.
2.35 - Mildmay Novices' Chase
Burton Port (5/2f) is up and coming, a worthy favourite with an excellent 2nd in the RSA Chase. Ogee (9/2) was pricewised last time and he just failed to beat Chief Dan George and The Package in the William Hill Trophy. Both of these should be up there. Not really anything each-wayable. Khachaturian (12/1) is an honest enough front-runner, but is likely to set up the race for something else. I backed Door Boy (16/1) at Cheltenham, but he isn't suited to this imho.
3.10 - John Smith's Melling Chase
Forpadydeplaster (5/1) and Kalahari King (4/1f) renew rivalries here. Pady has beaten him twice and should come on for his Cheltenham 2nd, yet KK is favourite... hmmmm. KK does like Aintree, but he was seriously under par at Cheltenham with ground that should have suited. It definitely does today, but I'd rather be with Pady. Throw in Albertas Run (15/2), Poquelin (6/1), Monet's Garden (8/1) and Deep Purple (9/1) and you probably have the best race at the the meeting. There is nothing else to say really. Schinfdler's Hunt (16/1) was shite at Cheltenham but is a better horse than that day. Sit back and enjoy this race.
3.45 Topham Handicap Chase
Super, a 28 runner handicap to get my teeth into. With Scotsirish (20/1) being by far the best horse in the race, most of the field will be running from out of the handicap. I'm going to concentrate on the bottom 20 or so... just kidding. I'll start at the bottom and look to back 2-4 horses. Garleton, Oulart, Boomshakalaka, Pomme Tiepy, Commemoration Day and Gaora Lane are too far out of the handicap imho and I will leave them alone. Pak Jack (20/1) has had his moments in the past and has now got his ground. I certainly think he has a big run in him. Quilmar (22/1) is 6 but has plenty of experience, hasn't run on ground as fast as this, but if he goes on it is pretty interesting. Wee Robbie (20/1) has been running in some big races this season, this is more like his sort of race and I won't put you off. He runs better on Good-Soft but is ok on Good. Zacharova (100/1) doesn't do it in big fields, so should be ignored. Oodachee (16/1) was 2nd last year, he's now 11 and hasn't won any money this year, probably best watched.
You need experience of big fields and more than a little luck. A very hard race to pick the winner and I'm always a bottom of the handicap sort of guy, so apologies if something up the top comes along and wins but it shouldn't. I'm probably on Wee Robbie, Quilmar and Pak Jack.
4.20 - Sefton Novice's Hurdle
Right, lets get this out of the way first. I've followed Channinbar for about 6 months. The first time he placed at big odds, he then did bugger all at shorter odds, then he wins after I don't back him. I've then decided that he should be followed and he pulls-up. You out pal.... no more...... Channinbar hosed up at 20/1 yesterday.
I know I'm right, I just need to be right at the right time. So apologies if I channel all by pain into stupidly following Chimirey in this. He was 3rd at Cheltenham @ 33/1 and I was on, but it covered my other bets in the race. If he's come out of Cheltenham ok then he'll be up there. I'll give Western Leader (11/2) a thumbs up too, but i'm focussed on Chimirey here. Probably best to ignore my thoughts and back what you want. Chimirey WILL win a race at nice odds, let's hope its this one.
4.55 - John Smitrh's Handicap Hurdle
Whinestone Boy (14/1) was secretly fancied for the National and this is a poor consolation. I think the bookies have shortened him up because they're afraid. Its not often I big up a favourite, but Cross Kennon (9/1f) does look a good think at an ok price, he's not each way able so I will try and find some value. Clova Island is stepped up to 3 miles. He's been my friend this season. 14/1 is a fair price but nothing exceptional in that respect. Wow I think I've found a decent thing at 25/1. Not sure why Dancing Dik is 25/1. Form at the distance, form on the ground, not got the Class 1 form but how many do. A good 2nd at Newcastle LTO could be the springboard for a shock. Definitely a placepot pick with the other 2.
5.30 National Hunt Flat Race
The 40/1 winner of the Cheltenham Bumper bashed up all the trends, none of those runners are here. I don't like short priced rookies. The bookies have all the form in the book and there is little value in them. Personally I think its a stay away race, especially if we have bookies money in the bank. A small cheeky bet on Lovey Dovey (22/1) may be preferred but I'm only saying it because I feel I have to say something. A win on Good ground is all we have to go on, but I'm happy to bet it to small stakes.
Selections:
2.00
Win: Menorah @ 13/8fav
E/W: Washington Irvine @ 25/1 (general)
2.35
Win: Burton Port @ 3/1fav (stan James)
E/W: Khachaturian @ 14/1 (Bet365, William Hill)
3.20
No Bet
3.45
E/W: Wee Robbie @ 20/1 (Bet365)
E/W: Quilimar @ 20/1 (Bet365, PaddyPower - both 5 places)
E:W: Pak Jack @ 20/1 (general, but get 5 places)
4.20
Win: Western Leader @ 11/2fav
E/W: Chimirey @ 12/1 (general, Bet365 and Ladbrokes are 1/4 odds)
4.55
Win: Cross Kennon @ 9/1fav (general)
E/W: Dancing Dik @ 25/1 (bet365, Coral)
E/W: Clova Island @ 14/1 (Bet365, Sportingbet, Coral)
5.30
E/W: Lovey Dovey @ 22/1 (Sportingbet, Coral)
Fingers crossed
VH
Thursday 8 April 2010
Aintree - Day One
The last good stuff of the year as far as I'm concerned. The Aintree Festival. Lots of value around normally as Cheltenham winners are horribly short for winning at the races they've been aimed for and some are put in here as an afterthought. There are some exceptions of course and the first is in the first race.
2.00 Liverpool Hurdle
Big Buck's will win off level weights, but at 1/3 he should do. World Hurdle runner-up Time For Rupert is a non-runner, so if there's any value to be had it's elsewhere. Tidal Bay flopped at Cheltenham, but has always preferred Aintree. He's 5/1 so you are getting your money back if he places, and that is of little interest to me. I've followed Bouggler (16/1) and I like him, but he looks one for next season. There are other winners around, but look best watched. If I have a bet it will be on Kayf Aramis (25/1) or (8/1 w/o Big Buck's). He's solid and runs on any ground and will be gunning for a place. Whether he's good enough to do that is a different matter but if I have a bet it will be on him.
2.35 4yo Novices' Hurdle
This looks a race for the favourites and escpecially horses that have run at Cheltenham with 9/10 winners running there and also finishing in the top 2 in either of their last 2 starts (8/10)
Sanctuaire (2/1f) was one of the few favourites to win at Cheltenham, although he was punted heavily on course to do so. He's a little short although a worthy favourite. He beat Notus De La Tour (17/2) by about 9 lengths that day. He's weighted to get closer today and will be up there. Barizan ran superbly for me/us the other week, nailed over the last but he kept plugging on anfter his tired error at the final fence. Now he's 6/1, he's not worth backing but I'll be cheering him on. Super Kenny (5/1) has been talked about for a while and won nicely on his belated debut last month. I can't find an each-way alternative so its not really a betting race for me.
3.10 Totesport Bowl
Imperial Commander (11/10) is the the horse of the day (unfair on Big Buck's perhaps), but the press and bookies are keen to get him beat. Calgary Bay (18/1) is Pricewise's tip. The horse that I would be interested in is What A Friend (100/30), who missed Cheltenham to win this. Nacarat (9/2) and Carruthers (14/1) have had hard front-running races recently and are targets for the others
3.45 Foxhunter's Chase
The top 3 in the market has provided 9/10 winners over the last decade. The biggest priced winner was 8/1 in that time.
Baby Run is looking for the Foxhunter double and I expect him to run really well, but 7/2 is no price in a 21 runner field. The horse that was 3rd that day @ 66/1 was Reach For The Top. I think that was a really good performance and he's still available at 18/1 today. I think that could be excellent value as Baby Run could be targetted by the others if he front runs.
4.20 Red Rum Handicap Chase
A really competative race with a number reopposing each other after a super Grand Annual race won by outsider Pigeron Island. He's happy to run as muh as possible so a 3 week break is no problem, however I have no idea how he won that day and It probably says a lot for the opposition. He's now 8/1 and can't be worth it at that price.
The Grand Annual provides a few winners of this and you won't find many big-priced winners either, so stick to the single figure prices. Consigliere (15/2fav) was unlucky in that race and I'd rather be with him but he's carrying a chunky weight. Safari Journey (8/1) is 8lbs better off today but is priced up accordingly. Nikola (16/1) isn't weighted that favourably but was out of the handicap last time. If he races a bit better this time he may be produced later as he blew up after a mistake 3 out. Chapoturgeon (9/1) has been done up like a kipper by the handicapper and he's still in his grip. He's a very good horse but it will take a fantastic performance carrying top weight here. I'd be suprised if anything else wins this, but if it does I'm not confident of finding it. Safari Journey is a tentative pick.
4.55 Manifesto Novices' Handicap Chase
The Nightingale (11/4) ran well at Kempton (beating Othermix) and missed Cheltenham. It will take a lot to beat Somersby (11/8f) though as he could have beaten an idling Sizing Europe in the Arkle with another 50 yards. Mad Max (11/2) is too short although he was travelling well (was 4th) in the same race before blundering badly coming round the back turn. He battled back well but isn't as good as the other two. Hey Big Spender (8/1) blundered at Cheltenham, while Othermix (22/1) was finishing 2nd, he's as honest as they come but must be outclassed here.
5.30 Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle
Ainama (5/1fav) disappointed at Cheltenham, he's better than that but is short enough for a horse who hasn't won for 7 races. A very competative handicap, I'm looking for something low down the handicap that didn't run at Cheltenham. Majaales (16/1) won comfortably last weekend and I'm fairly keen on him although he should be better next season. Maraafeq (22/1) has won his last 2 races, but this is tougher as you would expect, I think he'll be up there.
Of those Cheltenham horses, Silverhand (11/1) could be considered unlucky after being hampered when he was about to get in the mix, but 11/1 isn't e/w for me so I will pass him over. Sir Harry Ormesher (18/1) was 7th in that race but was another doing his best towards the end, a better ride today could se him up and abouts. Pascha Bere (40/1) had it all to do last time. He's a better horse than that, and I want to see him a bit closer today. The horse I'm going to recommend is Pagan Starprincess (28/1). She's veey consistent, runs on any ground and is on a decent weight here. First time headgear applied today. In a cometative race I think she could do us proud. Pascha Bere's price is too big at 40/1 but is much more speculative.
Selections (my win bets are @ 3/1 or more and each-way bets @ 12/1 or more in 7+ runner races
2.00
WIn: Big Buck's 1/3fav
breaking news only 7 runners so no e/w bet on Kayf Aramis
2.35
No Bet
3.10
Win: What A Friend @ 100/30 (Bet365)
3.45
E/W: Reach For The Top @ 18/1 (Bet365, Stan James)
4 places available 16/1 (sportingbet) 1/5 odds and 14/1 PaddyPower, Skybet 1/4odds
4.20
Win: Safari Joutrney @ 8/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, VCBet, Bet365) small stakes advised
4.55
Win: Somersby @ 11/8fav
5.30
E/W: Pagan Starprincess @ 25/1 (general)
Other possible E/W: Sir Harry Ormesher @ 20/1 (sportingbet); Marafeeq @22/1 (spbet, SJ), Majaales @ 16/1 (general), Pascha Bere @ 40/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, VCBet, Bet365), South O'The Border @ 33/1 (gen)
Good Luck
VH
2.00 Liverpool Hurdle
Big Buck's will win off level weights, but at 1/3 he should do. World Hurdle runner-up Time For Rupert is a non-runner, so if there's any value to be had it's elsewhere. Tidal Bay flopped at Cheltenham, but has always preferred Aintree. He's 5/1 so you are getting your money back if he places, and that is of little interest to me. I've followed Bouggler (16/1) and I like him, but he looks one for next season. There are other winners around, but look best watched. If I have a bet it will be on Kayf Aramis (25/1) or (8/1 w/o Big Buck's). He's solid and runs on any ground and will be gunning for a place. Whether he's good enough to do that is a different matter but if I have a bet it will be on him.
2.35 4yo Novices' Hurdle
This looks a race for the favourites and escpecially horses that have run at Cheltenham with 9/10 winners running there and also finishing in the top 2 in either of their last 2 starts (8/10)
Sanctuaire (2/1f) was one of the few favourites to win at Cheltenham, although he was punted heavily on course to do so. He's a little short although a worthy favourite. He beat Notus De La Tour (17/2) by about 9 lengths that day. He's weighted to get closer today and will be up there. Barizan ran superbly for me/us the other week, nailed over the last but he kept plugging on anfter his tired error at the final fence. Now he's 6/1, he's not worth backing but I'll be cheering him on. Super Kenny (5/1) has been talked about for a while and won nicely on his belated debut last month. I can't find an each-way alternative so its not really a betting race for me.
3.10 Totesport Bowl
Imperial Commander (11/10) is the the horse of the day (unfair on Big Buck's perhaps), but the press and bookies are keen to get him beat. Calgary Bay (18/1) is Pricewise's tip. The horse that I would be interested in is What A Friend (100/30), who missed Cheltenham to win this. Nacarat (9/2) and Carruthers (14/1) have had hard front-running races recently and are targets for the others
3.45 Foxhunter's Chase
The top 3 in the market has provided 9/10 winners over the last decade. The biggest priced winner was 8/1 in that time.
Baby Run is looking for the Foxhunter double and I expect him to run really well, but 7/2 is no price in a 21 runner field. The horse that was 3rd that day @ 66/1 was Reach For The Top. I think that was a really good performance and he's still available at 18/1 today. I think that could be excellent value as Baby Run could be targetted by the others if he front runs.
4.20 Red Rum Handicap Chase
A really competative race with a number reopposing each other after a super Grand Annual race won by outsider Pigeron Island. He's happy to run as muh as possible so a 3 week break is no problem, however I have no idea how he won that day and It probably says a lot for the opposition. He's now 8/1 and can't be worth it at that price.
The Grand Annual provides a few winners of this and you won't find many big-priced winners either, so stick to the single figure prices. Consigliere (15/2fav) was unlucky in that race and I'd rather be with him but he's carrying a chunky weight. Safari Journey (8/1) is 8lbs better off today but is priced up accordingly. Nikola (16/1) isn't weighted that favourably but was out of the handicap last time. If he races a bit better this time he may be produced later as he blew up after a mistake 3 out. Chapoturgeon (9/1) has been done up like a kipper by the handicapper and he's still in his grip. He's a very good horse but it will take a fantastic performance carrying top weight here. I'd be suprised if anything else wins this, but if it does I'm not confident of finding it. Safari Journey is a tentative pick.
4.55 Manifesto Novices' Handicap Chase
The Nightingale (11/4) ran well at Kempton (beating Othermix) and missed Cheltenham. It will take a lot to beat Somersby (11/8f) though as he could have beaten an idling Sizing Europe in the Arkle with another 50 yards. Mad Max (11/2) is too short although he was travelling well (was 4th) in the same race before blundering badly coming round the back turn. He battled back well but isn't as good as the other two. Hey Big Spender (8/1) blundered at Cheltenham, while Othermix (22/1) was finishing 2nd, he's as honest as they come but must be outclassed here.
5.30 Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle
Ainama (5/1fav) disappointed at Cheltenham, he's better than that but is short enough for a horse who hasn't won for 7 races. A very competative handicap, I'm looking for something low down the handicap that didn't run at Cheltenham. Majaales (16/1) won comfortably last weekend and I'm fairly keen on him although he should be better next season. Maraafeq (22/1) has won his last 2 races, but this is tougher as you would expect, I think he'll be up there.
Of those Cheltenham horses, Silverhand (11/1) could be considered unlucky after being hampered when he was about to get in the mix, but 11/1 isn't e/w for me so I will pass him over. Sir Harry Ormesher (18/1) was 7th in that race but was another doing his best towards the end, a better ride today could se him up and abouts. Pascha Bere (40/1) had it all to do last time. He's a better horse than that, and I want to see him a bit closer today. The horse I'm going to recommend is Pagan Starprincess (28/1). She's veey consistent, runs on any ground and is on a decent weight here. First time headgear applied today. In a cometative race I think she could do us proud. Pascha Bere's price is too big at 40/1 but is much more speculative.
Selections (my win bets are @ 3/1 or more and each-way bets @ 12/1 or more in 7+ runner races
2.00
WIn: Big Buck's 1/3fav
breaking news only 7 runners so no e/w bet on Kayf Aramis
2.35
No Bet
3.10
Win: What A Friend @ 100/30 (Bet365)
3.45
E/W: Reach For The Top @ 18/1 (Bet365, Stan James)
4 places available 16/1 (sportingbet) 1/5 odds and 14/1 PaddyPower, Skybet 1/4odds
4.20
Win: Safari Joutrney @ 8/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, VCBet, Bet365) small stakes advised
4.55
Win: Somersby @ 11/8fav
5.30
E/W: Pagan Starprincess @ 25/1 (general)
Other possible E/W: Sir Harry Ormesher @ 20/1 (sportingbet); Marafeeq @22/1 (spbet, SJ), Majaales @ 16/1 (general), Pascha Bere @ 40/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, VCBet, Bet365), South O'The Border @ 33/1 (gen)
Good Luck
VH
Grand National Trends - Class and all the others
34 was it?
Class
Right. Class is important. Party Politics (1992) was the last horse that hadn't won a race worth £17,000 to the winner.
Horses without the right class to win this are: King John's Castle, Abbeybraney, Flintoff, Oodachee, Officer De Reserve.
This leaves 29.
Big Race Performance
It has come to light from a fellow bettor that since 1989 (yes that bloody Little Polveir buggered up some nice trends that year)... where was I... yes... Since 1989, every winner has done well in a big race. Where big race is a top 3 finish in one of the National Nationals... Irish, Welsh or Scottish. A top 5 finish in the Henessey at Newbury, a top 2 finish over the big Aintree fences or had at least won 3 Chases over 3m (incl. 1 over 3m4+). I've had a look and its competely true, so it seems a good place to start.
Out:
Don't Push It, Cloudy Lane, Nozic, Ballyholland, Can't Buy Time, Beat The Boys, Preists Leap, Snowy Morning, Big Fella Thanks, Ellerslie George, Conna Castle, Ballyfitz, Arbor Supreme, Royal Rosa, Chief Dan George and Offshore Account
Great 16 gone, 13 remain and Ballytrim isn't going to run so a nice round 12 left.
Finally, the Racing Post records only go back 20 years, so the following 2 trends are at least good for the last 20 years. They are: every winner has run between 16-49 days ago and every winner has finished in the top3 at least once in its last 3 races, proving they are in some sort of form.
We can now get rid of the following:
State Of Play (133 days)
Irish Raptor (126 days)
Ollie Magern (form of 467)
Hello Bud (form U87)
My Will (form 757)
Hurray, we now have 7 horses that fit all the trends and I will go through any negatives they have
7 Comply Or Die (22/1, William Hill)
Winner in 2008 and Runner-up in 2009. Is borderline carrying 11-05 round Aintree and never one to show great form in the build-up to the race, but write him off at your peril. Timmy Murphy chose him over The Package today.
9 Niche Market (18/1, Bet365, Totesport, William Hill)
Can't find fault with him really. Ran a superb 3rd in this season's Henessey and was 2nd in the AON Chase in February. Only 9th at Cheltenham behind Chief Day George, The Package, Offshore Account and Ollie Magern, however he made a couple of mistakes while beaten. Will have to carry 11-04 round here and there may be one or two too good.
11 Dream Alliance (40/1, Bet365, Betfred, William Hill, Ladbrokes)
Another carrying a little too much than is ideal. Could be the fairytale winner of the National as his owners are from a working men's club in a small village in Wales and have signed up to a deal to make a film of the horse after he came back from terrible injuries to win the Welsh National at Christmas. Also ran a solid 2nd to Denman in the 2007 Henessey.
24 Character Building (20/1, Betfred, Sportingbet, coral, Ladbrokes)
The perfect horse at the perfect weight. Won The Kim Muir at Cheltenham in 2009, however his 2 runs this seson have hardly set the world alight. Was 12th In the William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham, even behind Niche Market. He was bought last week by the same people who bought Party Politics 3 days before his 1992 win.
26 Eric's Charm (50/1, general)
Being 12yo is a bit of a negative but at least he's in form, winning his last 2 races, including a Veteran's Handicap in March, beating Knowhere.
36 Mr Pointment (125/1, Sportingbet)
What can I say. A former Paul Nicholls Grand National Ante-Post Favourite in 2008. This horse has gone backwards ever since he was leading that race until fence 24 (pulled-up going backwards). Ran in the Gold Cup, but only 2 runs in the last 16 months has got to be a big negative. If he comes back to his form of 2007 then he may have a chance, but I would personally avoid him like the plague.
44 Knowhere (100/1, general)
Unlikely to get in and will be one of the reserves until Friday if he doesn't. Anoother 12yo who could get a place if he ran up to his best form.
There you have it, the 7 alleged winners of the Grand National, I will try and write up a couple of lines on all 40 runners if I have time.
Currently there are a number of bookies running to 5 places. They are Bet365, Boylesports, VCbet, Bluesq and Paddy Power. On the day the bookies may stretch to 6 places so it may be worth looking out for those at http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/grand-national, however the bookies that only pay 4 places may well have better prices so its a bit of a trade off.
The first day of the Aintree meeting starts tomorrow. If I fancy anything it will be up before noon.
Good Luck!!
VH
Class
Right. Class is important. Party Politics (1992) was the last horse that hadn't won a race worth £17,000 to the winner.
Horses without the right class to win this are: King John's Castle, Abbeybraney, Flintoff, Oodachee, Officer De Reserve.
This leaves 29.
Big Race Performance
It has come to light from a fellow bettor that since 1989 (yes that bloody Little Polveir buggered up some nice trends that year)... where was I... yes... Since 1989, every winner has done well in a big race. Where big race is a top 3 finish in one of the National Nationals... Irish, Welsh or Scottish. A top 5 finish in the Henessey at Newbury, a top 2 finish over the big Aintree fences or had at least won 3 Chases over 3m (incl. 1 over 3m4+). I've had a look and its competely true, so it seems a good place to start.
Out:
Don't Push It, Cloudy Lane, Nozic, Ballyholland, Can't Buy Time, Beat The Boys, Preists Leap, Snowy Morning, Big Fella Thanks, Ellerslie George, Conna Castle, Ballyfitz, Arbor Supreme, Royal Rosa, Chief Dan George and Offshore Account
Great 16 gone, 13 remain and Ballytrim isn't going to run so a nice round 12 left.
Finally, the Racing Post records only go back 20 years, so the following 2 trends are at least good for the last 20 years. They are: every winner has run between 16-49 days ago and every winner has finished in the top3 at least once in its last 3 races, proving they are in some sort of form.
We can now get rid of the following:
State Of Play (133 days)
Irish Raptor (126 days)
Ollie Magern (form of 467)
Hello Bud (form U87)
My Will (form 757)
Hurray, we now have 7 horses that fit all the trends and I will go through any negatives they have
7 Comply Or Die (22/1, William Hill)
Winner in 2008 and Runner-up in 2009. Is borderline carrying 11-05 round Aintree and never one to show great form in the build-up to the race, but write him off at your peril. Timmy Murphy chose him over The Package today.
9 Niche Market (18/1, Bet365, Totesport, William Hill)
Can't find fault with him really. Ran a superb 3rd in this season's Henessey and was 2nd in the AON Chase in February. Only 9th at Cheltenham behind Chief Day George, The Package, Offshore Account and Ollie Magern, however he made a couple of mistakes while beaten. Will have to carry 11-04 round here and there may be one or two too good.
11 Dream Alliance (40/1, Bet365, Betfred, William Hill, Ladbrokes)
Another carrying a little too much than is ideal. Could be the fairytale winner of the National as his owners are from a working men's club in a small village in Wales and have signed up to a deal to make a film of the horse after he came back from terrible injuries to win the Welsh National at Christmas. Also ran a solid 2nd to Denman in the 2007 Henessey.
24 Character Building (20/1, Betfred, Sportingbet, coral, Ladbrokes)
The perfect horse at the perfect weight. Won The Kim Muir at Cheltenham in 2009, however his 2 runs this seson have hardly set the world alight. Was 12th In the William Hill Trophy at Cheltenham, even behind Niche Market. He was bought last week by the same people who bought Party Politics 3 days before his 1992 win.
26 Eric's Charm (50/1, general)
Being 12yo is a bit of a negative but at least he's in form, winning his last 2 races, including a Veteran's Handicap in March, beating Knowhere.
36 Mr Pointment (125/1, Sportingbet)
What can I say. A former Paul Nicholls Grand National Ante-Post Favourite in 2008. This horse has gone backwards ever since he was leading that race until fence 24 (pulled-up going backwards). Ran in the Gold Cup, but only 2 runs in the last 16 months has got to be a big negative. If he comes back to his form of 2007 then he may have a chance, but I would personally avoid him like the plague.
44 Knowhere (100/1, general)
Unlikely to get in and will be one of the reserves until Friday if he doesn't. Anoother 12yo who could get a place if he ran up to his best form.
There you have it, the 7 alleged winners of the Grand National, I will try and write up a couple of lines on all 40 runners if I have time.
Currently there are a number of bookies running to 5 places. They are Bet365, Boylesports, VCbet, Bluesq and Paddy Power. On the day the bookies may stretch to 6 places so it may be worth looking out for those at http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/grand-national, however the bookies that only pay 4 places may well have better prices so its a bit of a trade off.
The first day of the Aintree meeting starts tomorrow. If I fancy anything it will be up before noon.
Good Luck!!
VH
Tuesday 6 April 2010
Grand National Trends - Stamina
46 horses remain... On monday we lost 10 horses at the 5-day declaration stage.
Notre Pere (too much weight), Deutchsland (age), Dooneys Gate (experience), Anothercoppercoast and Cossack Dancer (OR below 135) were already out.
Air Force One, Chelsea Harbour, Equus Maximus, Lennon and Razor Royale reduce the 'winners' to 41.
The last horse to have not previously won at 3 miles or more was Gay Trip in 1970. Every winner since has winning experience at 3 miles or more. Obviously this is a 4 1/2m race so stamina is very important.
Of the remaining 41 horses, Made In Taipan, Pablo Du Charmil, Maljimar, Cerium (5th last year), Faasel, Duers and Pak Jack have not won a race over 3 miles.
Both Ballyholland and Conna Castle have 3m Point To Point wins and stay in for now.
34 remain.
Notre Pere (too much weight), Deutchsland (age), Dooneys Gate (experience), Anothercoppercoast and Cossack Dancer (OR below 135) were already out.
Air Force One, Chelsea Harbour, Equus Maximus, Lennon and Razor Royale reduce the 'winners' to 41.
The last horse to have not previously won at 3 miles or more was Gay Trip in 1970. Every winner since has winning experience at 3 miles or more. Obviously this is a 4 1/2m race so stamina is very important.
Of the remaining 41 horses, Made In Taipan, Pablo Du Charmil, Maljimar, Cerium (5th last year), Faasel, Duers and Pak Jack have not won a race over 3 miles.
Both Ballyholland and Conna Castle have 3m Point To Point wins and stay in for now.
34 remain.
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