JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE
2 Miles, 179 Yards - Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle
Overview
Good race to start off the day. One of the favourites usually wins, especially since the Fred Winter took the big field away. The Only big priced winners recently were the 1 raced types, like Pentland Hills and Burning Victory.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.4 stars
2021 ***** Quilixios (2/1)
2020 ***** Burning Victory (12/1)
2019 *** Pentland Hills (20/1)
2018 **** Farclas (9/1)
2017 **** Defi Du Seuil (5/2 fav)
2016 ***** Ivanovich Gorbatov (9/2 fav)
2015 ***** Peace And Co (2/1 fav)
2014 ***** Tiger Roll (10/1)
2013 ***** Our Conor (4/1)
2012 *** Countrywide Flame (33/1)
10-Year Trends
10/10 Had raced within the last 48 days.
9/10 Had an OR of 84+ on the flat, or did not race on the flat. [Pentland Hills (73)]
9/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 149. [OR 140+] [Pentland Hills (139]
9/10 Were rated within 6lbs of the RPR top rated. [Pentland Hills (21lbs)]
9/10 Had won at least 50% of their hurdles. [Farclas, twice was 2nd.]
9/10 Were from a flat Group 1 sire. [Exception: Our Conor was from Jeremy, a Group 2 sire]
8/10 Had won a Graded Hurdle or were 2nd in a Grade 1. [Ivanovich Gorbatov was, a 9 length, 4th in a Grade 1, Pentland Hills won his only start in a Maiden.]
8/10 Had raced over hurdles between 1 and 4 times. [Exceptions: 5 and 6 times]
8/10 Had won one of their last 2 starts. 6 won their last start. [Exceptions form was ‘23’ and ‘22’ ]
8/10 Had finished in the top 2 last time. [Exceptions: 3rd and 4th]
7/10 Made their hurdles début after November 9th. [Exceptions: Jul 16th, Oct 13th and Oct 15th]
Additionally
28 of the last 31 winners had at least 2 runs over hurdles.
22 of the last 28 winners had won last time out.
20 of the last 28 winners had won at least twice over hurdles.
Only 2 winners was rated lower than 80 on the flat since 1996.
12 of the last 17 winners (since the introduction of the Fred Winter) came from the first 4 in the betting.
Fate Of Favourites LSP: +3.00
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky Henderson 2-3-13
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 2-2-8
Willie Mullins (Ire) 1-6-24
Henry de Bromhead (Ire) 1-1-2
Joseph O’Brien (Ire) 0-1-3 and 1 winner under his father’s licence.
Paul Nicholls 0-2-16
Contenders
* Ages Of Man (200/1)
*** Doctor Parnassus (20/1)
***** Fil Dor (15/2)
**** Icare Allen (18/1)
*** Il Etait Temps (10/1)
*** Knight Salute (20/1)
* Koi Dodville (100/1)
* Lunar Power (25/1)
***** Pied Piper (5/2 fav)
**** Porticello (16/1)
** Teddy Blue (100/1)
***** Vauban (15/8 fav)
Conclusion
Looks a match on paper between Pied Piper and Vauban in the betting. Pied Piper beat Vauban’s on the latter’s debut, but Vauban’s is expected to reverse the form after a fairly impressive victory over Fil Dor at the Dublin Racing Festival. Back in 3rd was debutante, Il Etait Temps. He will come on for that massively and while 10/1 is about right, he’s definitely a player. In 5th was Icare Allen. He was going better than Fil Dor at one stage, but just faded away and the clattered the last. He could get closer, but probably isn’t going to win. Gary Moore’s Porticello is the best of the British runners. He did lose to Knight Salute on his 2nd run, but he did make a couple of errors. His next 2 runs were impressive and on this softer ground, he can make the frame. Knight Salute is 5 from 5 for Milton Harris. He doesn’t win by much and has a bit to find on the figures, but does have some course form to his name.
Update: The ground is now GOOD-SOFT. Porticello probably better on softer isn’t likely to be a bet now. I’ve switch to the once raced Il Etait Temps at an each way price.
Selections
IL ETAIT TEMPS e/w @ 12/1 (general, 4 paces at Bet365.)
McCOY CONTRACTORS COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE
2 Miles, 179 Yards - Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle
Overview
Looks like you won’t find a winner for years and years in this. But Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton have won 6 of the last 7.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.9 stars
2021 *** Belfast Banter (33/1)
2020 **** Saint Roi (11/2 fav)
2019 *** Ch’tibello (12/1)
2018 ***** Mohaayed (33/1)
2017 *** Arctic Fire (20/1)
2016 ***** Superb Story (8/1)
2015 *** Wicklow Brave (25/1)
2014 ***** Lac Fontana (11/1)
2013 ***** Ted Veale (10/1)
2012 *** Alderwood (20/1)
10-Year Trends
10/10 Were aged between 5 and 8.
9/10 Had finished in the top 3 in either of their last 2 starts. [Exception: Wicklow Brave swerved at the start and was pulled-up just 6 days previous.]
9/10 Had less than 2 Handicap Hurdle wins, the. [Exception: Alderwood had 2 in 2012]
8/10 Had achieved a RPR of 139 or more on a Left-Handed course. [Exceptions: 130 & 132]
8/10 Had between 2 and 4 runs since August. Exceptions: 0 and 6]
8/10 Were top 2 in at least 40% of their seasonal hurdles runs. [Exceptions: 0% and 25%]
8/10 Were rated between less than 145 by the handicapper. [Excetptions: Arctic Fire (158) and Ch’tibello (146)]
7/10 Had less than 13 hurdle races. [Exceptions: 14, 17, 19]
7/10 Had carried less than 11-03 [Exceptions 11-4, 11-5 and 11-12]
7/10 Started on the flat.
7/10 Ran in a Graded Hurdle.
Additionally
55 of the last 60 winners had carried less than 11-03.
54 of the last 61 winners were younger than 8.
24 of the last 25 winners had handicap experience.
22 of the last 28 winners has raced at least 4 times in the season.
19 of the last 27 winners had raced within the last 5 weeks.
Jockeys claiming 5lbs or more are 0/74 in the last 20 renewals.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 3-11-75
6yo 4-9-69
7yo 0-6-57
8yo 3-2-29
9yo 0-2-14
10yo 0-1-9
11yo 0-0-1
Fate Of Favourites LSP: -5.50
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 3-8-34
Dan Skelton 3-0-10
Tony Martin (Ire) 1-1-4
Paul Nicholls 1-1-16
Philip Hobbs 0-3-14
Nicky Henderson 0-3-16
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 0-2-16 (and Denise Foster (Ire) 0-2-3)
Alan King 0-2-8
Contenders
**** Call Me Lyreen (40/1)
**** My Mate Mozzie (22/1)
**** Tritonic (33/1)
**** Ballyadam (50/1)
** Felix Desjy (80/1)
**** Dysart Diamond (80/1)
**** Faivoir (66/1)
***** First Street (20/1)
**** Cask Mate (50/1)
**** I Like To Move It (12/1)
**** Jesse Evans (25/1)
**** Farout (40/1)
***** West Cork (10/1)
*** Irascible (40/1)
*** State Man (3/1)
**** Colonel Mustard (7/1)
**** Suprise Package (11/1)
*** Top Bandit (16/1)
***** Cormier (33/1)
**** Gua Du Large (33/1)
*** Eclair De Beaufeu (40/1)
**** Tax For Max (25/1)
*** Bua Boy (66/1)
***** Broomfield Burg (16/1)
*** Stepney Causeway (100/1)
*** Tempo Chapter Two (40/1)
Conclusion
Lets start with the Mullins horses. He doesn’t really plot them, they usually fall into Novices just short of Supreme Novice Hurdle class and older horses who’ve dropped off the top level. Dan Skelton does plot his horses for this. Once they get their handicap mark, he’s happy to put them away for longer.
Starting with the favourite, State Man. He doesn’t fare well on the trends as he’s never run in a handicap and without any big Graded Hurdle runs to boost his RPR, it’s lower than many winners. He was brought over from France with the Supreme in mind, but he fell on his Mullin’s debut. He’s too short for me, but should make the frame.
Farout has been running in some hot Grade 1s and this may suit him better. He would want the ground to dry out to at least some good-soft in the description.
Tax For Max hasn’t been seen since July, where Farout beat him, hard to fancy but Mullins can get them ready off 232 day breaks. Tempo Chapter Two, not quite the same as State Man, but another who’s yet to run in a handicap. First win last time, can out run his odds.
Dysart Diamond has disappointed recently after a busy campaign. Probably shouldn’t be that price, but more solid options out there.
Dan Skelton has 3 running, firstly I don’t think Stepney Causeway will be doing the business.
West Cork does tick the boxes of a likely winner. Winner of the Greatwood Hurdle here (old course) in November, he got an injury while finishing 5th at Ascot a month later. Off since and primed for a big run.
Favoir is a big price, probably too high in the ratings for this though. Was chasing before going back to hurdles in last 2 runs and not a plot.
Of the rest, Gordon Elliott’s Eclair De Beaufeu deserves a mention. Fell at the last in the lead (wouldn’t have won) in this 2 years ago, before coming back for 4th last year. He’s 3lbs less this year. He’s badly out of form, but maybe the course sparks him back. Call Me Lyreen won well last time, but has taken a huge hit by the handicapper and with top weight (good claimer on board) may find some too good. Felix Desjy too old now. Top Bandit (Davy Russell rides) is 4 from 5 in Novice Hurdles, including here in October. Ground probably needs to dry out, but can run well.
Suprise Package (beaten 18 lengths by Lyreen Legend in February) won the Imperial Cup at the weekend by quite a long way. Gets a 5lb penalty and can run well if coming out of the race.
On balance, the Irish horses are the ones to concentrate on. I mean even the best British hope is West Cork.
Selections
WEST CORK e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365, 7pl)
TOP BANDIT e/w @ 16/1 (Betfair 7pl, 14/1 Bet365, 7pl)
ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
(REGISTERED AS THE SPA NOVICES’ HURDLE)
2 Miles, 7 Furlongs, 213 Yards - Grade 1 Novice Hurdle
Overview
Some nice big winners in this race (for us too). And some hotpots turned over.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.6 stars
2021 ***** Vanillier (14/1)
2020 ***** Monkfish (5/1)
2019 *** Minella Indo (50/1)
2018 ***** Kilbricken Storm (33/1)
2017 ***** Penhill (16/1)
2016 ***** Unowhatimeanharry (11/1)
2015 ***** Martello Tower (14/1)
2014 *** Very Wood (33/1)
2013 ***** At Fishers Cross (11/8 fav)
2012 ***** Brindisi Breeze (7/1)
10-Year Trends
10/10 Had last raced between 27 days and 78 days ago.
10/10 Had won over 3 miles (including Point-to-Points). 4 won Graded Hurdles.
9/10 Had raced over hurdles at least 3 times. [Exception: Minella Indo, twice]
9/10 Had won at Cheltenham during the season or had been running in Ireland. [Exception: Brindisi Breeze.]
9/10 Had finished top 2 in a Graded Hurdle. [Exception: Monkfish won a 7k Maiden]
8/10 Were aged between 6 or 7. [Exceptions: 5 and 8 year olds]
8/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of 151 or more. [Exceptions: 143 & 147.] 8/10 OR 140+
8/10 Were rated within 11lbs or the RP Top Rated. [Exceptions: 13lbs and 18lbs]
8/10 Sire Index of at least 11.6f. [Exceptions: 9.9 & 10.7]
Additionally
16 of the 17 winners were aged 5-7.
16 of the 17 winners had won over 2m4f+.
14 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 3 last time.
15 of the 17 winners had run in a 3m Hurdle.
13 of the 17 winners finished top 4 in a Grade 1 or 2 hurdle last time.
11 of the last 16 winners had won a Graded Hurdle.
36 of the 49 placed horses finish in the top 2 last time.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 1-3-32
6yo 6-12-106
7yo 2-4-30
8yo 1-1-10
9yo 0-0-1
Fate Of Favourites LSP: -6.63
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 2-4-31
Colin Tizzard 1-2-12
Henry De Bromhead 1-1-4
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 0-4-8
Nigel Twiston-Davies 0-2-7
Nicky Henderson 0-2-13
Contenders
** Ballygriffincottage (33/1)
**** Bardenstown Lad (18/1)
*** Brorson (100/1)
*** Classic Getaway (28/1)
**** Eric Bloodaxe (33/1)
Falcon Eight NON-RUNNER
***** Ginto (3/1)
*** Good Time Jonny (16/1)
*** Green Book (40/1)
***** Hillcrest (11/4 fav)
** Idas Boy (80/1)
** Mahler Mission (66/1)
**** Minella Cocooner (11/1)
*** Ramillies (33/1)
**** Shantreusse (12/1)
* Stag Horn (20/1)
*** The Nice Guy (14/1)
*** The Real Whacker (100/1)
*** Where It All Began (150/1)
Conclusion
I like Graded form and lots of experience in this race. The best 2 horses on the trends are also the two favourites. Hillcrest and Ginto. They are excellent horses.
Hillcrest is a chaser in the making. He won a Grade 2 last time on heavy over 3 miles. Bred to stay all day, his jumping will need to improve. I think on balance he looks the likely winner
Ginto has won at the top level, but at only 2m 4f. He’s only had 3 runs. He was edging towards the Ballymore until this was made easier by Minella Crooner’s injury.
Of the other Graded winners, Eric Bloodaxe’s run last time was too bad to be true (beaten 73 lengths by Minella Cocooner. He’s had 4 runs and would likethe ground to stay the same please.
Minella Cocooner won at the Dublin Racing Festival. They may have run him in the Ballymore but his stablemate Minella Crooner got injured. He’s by Flemensfirth and should stay 3 miles. He’s only had 3 starts, so is inexperienced.
Green Book won a Grade 3, but was thrashed by Hillcrest last time. He’ll want the ground to dry here.
Mahler Mission won the Grade 2 River Don last time. That has been a poor trial for this and is passed over.
Shantreusse won a Grade 3 last time. He’s only had 3 runs, but both his wins were fairly impressive. Softer ground is not a problem.
Stag Horn has only 2 starts. His Graded 2 win was over 2m5f and isn’t sure to stay.
Bardenstown Lad has been running at a low level for John McConnell, including a win here in October. He’s drifted to a nice price in the last few days.
Selection
SHANTREUSSE e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365, 5pl)
BOODLES CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE
3 Miles, 2 Furlongs, 70 Yards - Grade 1 Chase
Overview
Could be a cracker. Second season chasers have an excellent record and horse usually beaten once, get beaten again.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.2 stars
2021 *** Minella Indo (9/1)
2020 ***** Al Boum Photo (100/30 fav)
2019 *** Al Boum Photo (12/1)
2018 ***** Native River (5/1)
2017 ***** Sizing John (7/1)
2016 **** Don Cossack (9/4 fav)
2015 ***** Coneygree (7/1)
2014 *** Lord Windermere (20/1)
2013 ***** Bobs Worth (11/4 fav)
2012 **** Synchronised (8/1)
10-Year Trends
10/10 Were aged between 7 and 9 years old.
9/10 Had a Grade 1 Chase win under their belt. 8 at 3 miles or more. [Exception: Minella Indo, Grade 2 win, 2nd in a Grade 1 by just a length]
9/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of 172+ for this race. [OR 164] [Lord Windermere (161, OR152)]
8/10 Were rated within 12lbs of the RP Top Rated. [Exceptions: Lord Windermere, 24lbs]
9/10 Had won a chase over 3 miles or more. [Exception: Al Boum Photo ran out at the last, whilst the likely winner]
8/10 Had won last time out. [Exceptions 5th and 6th in a Grade 1.]
8/10 Had less than 11 Chase starts. [Exceptions 12 & 18]
8/10 Had recorded a seasonal Graded Chase win. [Exceptions: 6th in a Grade 1, and a Listed winner on only run.]
7/10 Had raced fewer than 4 times that season. [Exceptions, 4, 4 & 5] 2 Had fallen on their penultimate start, so probably needed to get a run into their charges.
7/10 Had been placed at a previous festival, 4 in the RSA Chase. [2 exceptions fell, the other hadn’t been to the festival]
Additionally
30 of the last 34 winners were top 4 last time
18 of the last 21 winners had finished top 2 last time.
26 of the last 28 winners were aged 7 to 9.
27 of the last 31 winners had raced at least twice that season.
20 of the last 21 winners had all won a Grade 1 Chase.
21 of the last 23 winners had won that season.
20 of the last 22 winners had an OR of 166 or more.
17 of the last 21 winners were all from the front 3 in the betting.
19 of the last 24 winners were placed at a previous festival.
15 of the last 19 winners had been off for 65 days or less.
15 of the last 20 winners had finished top two at a festival
16 of the last 30 winners were second season chasers.
111 of the last 114 horses beaten in the race, were beaten again. [Native River (3rd in 2017), Kauto Star (regaining the trophy) and See More Business (c/o)]
No horse aged 11 or more has won since 1969.
Only 3 horses have won with less than 6 Chase starts since 1963.
No winner has run on heavy ground in his winning season this century.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo 0-1-2
7yo 2-8-23
8yo 6-6-38
9yo 2-4-44
10yo 0-1-13
11yo 0-0-7
12yo 0-0-2
Fate Of Favourites LSP: +1.33
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 2-6-26
Nicky Henderson 1-4-12
Colin Tizzard 1-2-11
Jonjo O’Neill 1-1-4
Henry de Bromhead (Ire) 1-1-6
Tony Martin (Ire) 0-2-2
David Bridgwater 0-2-4
Contenders
**** Al Boum Photo (12/1)
Twice winner, 3rd last year, age catches us all eventually
**** A Plus Tard (11/4 fav)
Lost last year, lost last time. Should make the frame, but not in first.
*** Asterion Forlonge (25/1)
Always makes an error, and you can’t make an error in this.
* Aye Right (100/1)
Outclassed handicapper, who doesn’t win very much.
**** Chantry House (18/1)
Never taken to him. Dreadful in his win last time. Surely he can’t win this.
***** Galvin (4/1)
Outstayed A Plus Tard at Christmas and won the “4 miler” last year. He’s had 12 chases (just a tick over perfection) and should go close.
**** Minella Indo (6/1)
Champion. Been average this year, has the race taken it’s toll on him or is he just waiting to come back to the place he loves. Time will tell
***** Protektorat (10/1)
Great on the trends, but did spent a 2nd season over hurdles and Gold Cup winners go chasing straight away.
*** Royale Pagaille (14/1)
Poor here last year, just not top level.
* Santini (50/1)
2nd 2 years ago. Out of form and overlooked today.
***** Tornado Flyer (12/1)
I didn’t think he stay the King George Trip, Do I think he’ll stay this. Well I think he can. I’m certain he’ll be ridden out the back. But the pace may not be as frenetic here and he may have too much to do if he relaxes too much.
Conclusion
I really like Galvin. But if the ground dries and they just don’t come back to him, he won’t win. Stays all day and I’m hoping he’ll power up the hill in the last 50 and nab, A Plus Tard or Minella Indo or Protektorat. If Tornado Flyer is with him, it could be a hell of a finish.
Selections
GALVIN @ 4/1 (Bet365, William Hill, Betfred)
TORNADO FLYER e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365, William Hill, 4pl)
ST JAMES’S PLACE FESTIVAL CHALLENGE CUP
OPEN HUNTERS’ CHASE
3 Miles, 2 Furlongs, 70 Yards - Class 2 Chase
Overview
The amateur’s Gold Cup. Lots of favourites win and lots of outsiders win. A tough race to crack.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.3
stars
2021 *** Porlock Bay (16/1)
2020 *** It Came To Pass (66/1)
2019 ***** Hazel Hill (7/2 fav)
2018 ***** Pacha Du Polder (25/1)
2017 **** Pacha Du Polder (16/1)
2016 ***** On The Fringe (13/8 fav)
2015 ***** On The Fringe (6/1)
2014 ***** Tammys Hill (15/2)
2013 ***** Salsify (2/1 fav)
2012 *** Salsify (7/1)
10-Year Trends
10/10 Sire or DamSire’s Stamina Index was 13.7f or more.
10/10 Had run within the last 53 days.
10/10 Had raced over at least 17 races in career.
10/10 Had achieved a Racing Post Rating of 133+ over fences in their career.
9/10 Were aged between 8 and 11. [Exception: Salsify was 7.]
8/10 Top 3 last time out. [Exceptions: 7th & P/up]
8/10 Had won over 3 miles or more. [Exceptions: placed over further than 3 miles.]
7/10 Started their career in either Point-to-Points or Hunter Chases. [Exceptions: 2 flat runners and French Hurdler]
7/10 Had an A.RPR of 139 or more. [Exceptions: 126, 132, 135]. 9/10 O/R of 134+
7/10 Were rated within 9lbs of the Adjusted RPR. [Exceptions: 14lbs, 20lbs, 29lbs]
Additionally
27 of the last 28 winners had won under rules.
43 of the last 45 winners were aged 11 or less.
27 of the last 32 winners started their career in Point to Points or Hunter Chases.
25 of the last 36 winners had won last time.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo 0-0-3
7yo 1-0-12
8yo 1-3-25
9yo 1-4-35
10yo 2-4-41
11yo 3-3-40
12yo 0-2-30
13yo 0-0-6
14yo 0-0-2
Fate Of Favourites LSP: +0.13
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Enda Bolger (Ire) 2-2-9
Paul Nicholls 2-1-14
Rodger Sweeney (Ire) 2-0-4
Philip Rowley 1-2-6
Kelly Morgan 0-2-3
Colin McBratney (Ire) 0-2-3
Willie Mullins (Ire) 0-2-3
Warren Greatrex 0-2-4
Contenders
*** Back Bar (80/1)
***** Billaway (2/1)
**** Bob And Co (13/2)
**** Cousin Pascal (11/1)
*** Desire De Joie (66/)
* Don Bersy (80/1)
**** Dubai Quest (10/1)
* Fumet D’oudairies (25/1)
*** It Came To Pass (33/1)
*** Lord Schnitzel (25/1)
** Mighty Stowaway (33/1)
*** Monbeg Chit Chat (50/1)
*** Overworkdunderpaid (33/1)
** Point The Way (100/1)
**** Pont Aven (11/1)
** Premier Magic (18/1)
* Rewritetherules (150/1)
*** Senior Lombardy (66/1)
***** Winged Leader (11/2)
Zamparelli NON RUNNER
Conclusion
Billaway just can’t get his head in front here. Bob And Co unseated last year. Cousin Pascal won the Aintree equivalent, that was over shorter. Winged Leader should run well having slammed Billaway last time. If you are behind in your tipping competition, Senor Lombardy is improving every run and should outrun his big odds.
Selections
WINGED LEADER @ 11/2 (General)
MRS PADDY POWER MARES’ CHASE
(REGISTERED AS THE LIBERTINE MARES’ CHASE)
2 Miles, 4 Furlongs, 127 Yards - Grade 2 Mares’ Chase
Overview
Making its debut last season. It was won by 2nd favourite, Colreevy, trained by Willie Mullins. No real surprise. The front 3 in the market finished in the top 3.
Trends
We used similar trends to the Ryanair Chase. Colreevy’s trends are here too.
Top 2 in one of their last 2 finishes – Won all 3 Chase starts.
Distance Win - Yes
A.RPR of 163+ - 166
Within 6lbs of RPR Top Rated – Rated within 2lbs.
Less Than 5 runs since October – 3 Runs
Aged 7-9 – Aged 8
Days Since last Race <83 – 51 Days
Less than 15 Chase starts – 3 Chase Starts
Won a Graded Chase – Won a Novice Grade 1
Festival Run - 5th in the Mares Novice Hurdle and 7th in the Bumper.
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo 0-0-1
7yo 0-1-2
8yo 1-0-3
9yo 0-0-3
10yo 0-1-2
Fate Of Favourites LSP: -1.00
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 1-1-4
Mrs Denise Foster (Ire) 0-1-1 [G Elliott (Ire)]
Contenders
**** Concertista (9/2)
**** Scarlet And Dove (22/1)
***** Elimay (9/4)
*** Maid O’Malley (150/1)
***** Mount Ida (2/1 fav)
** Pink Legend (33/1)
**** Vienna Court (14/1)
*** Zambella (12/1)
Conclusion
The 2 best teams on ratings are the perfect horses, they are both short in the market. I’ve a feeling I maybe throwing money away picking an outsider, so best watch this one. Concertista would be the best horse in the field, but only 2 starts over fences and mistakes in each victory.
Selections
NO BET
MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’
HANDICAP HURDLE
2 Miles, 4 Furlongs, 56 Yards - Class 2 Handicap Hurdle
Overview
Irish winners abound and David Pipe can’t win his Dad’s race. Gordon’s won 2 and Willie’s won 3 of the last 8.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.0 stars
2021 *** Galopin Des Champs (8/1)
2020 **** Indefatigable (25/1)
2019 *** Early Doors (5/1)
2018 ***** Blow By Blow (11/1)
2017 ***** Champagne Classic (12/1)
2016 *** Ibis Du Rheu (14/1)
2015 ***** Killultagh Vic (7/1)
2014 ***** Don Poli (12/1)
2013 **** Salubrious (16/1)
2012 *** Attaglance (20/1)
10-Year Trends
10/10 Had an A.RPR of at least 143 or more. All had achieved an RPR of 137+ previously
10/10 Were aged either 5 to 7.
9/10 Had run within the last 47 days. [Exception; Early Doors, 77 days]
9/10 Were 1st/2nd season hurdlers. [Exception: Ibis Du Rheu had 2 late runs in France before moving to Paul Nicholls]
9/10 Had won over 2m2f or further. [Exceptions: Early Doors won over 2m1/2f]
9/10 Had run in a Graded Hurdle. [Exception: Attaglance in 2012]
8/10 Had finished in the top 3 last time. [Exceptions: 5th and 6th (Grade 1)]
8/10 Had less than 9 hurdles starts. [All below 14 starts]
8/10 Had run over further in their careers. 2M 5f+.
Additionally
43 of the 52 horses in the top 4 were 1st/2nd season hurdlers.
David Pipe is 0/23 in the race named after his father. [1 place]
Horses in headgear are 1/64. [Blow By Blow broke the duck in 2018]
Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 3-9-59
6yo 5-14-82
7yo 2-5-45
8yo 0-1-27
9yo 0-0-11
10yo 0-0-6
11yo 0-0-1
Fate Of Favourites LSP: -10.00
Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 3-3-22
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 2-6-20
Paul Nicholls 2-2-20
Joseph O’Brien (Ire) 1-2-6
Nigel Twiston-Davies 0-2-6
Philip Hobbs 0-2-10
Contenders
** The Very Man (40/1)
***** Hollow Games (7/1)
*** Adamantly Chosen (7/1)
** Five O’Clock (14/1)
*** Grand Jury (22/1)
***** The Goffer (16/1)
*** Decimation (25/1)
* Earlofthecotswolds (40/1)
* Ilikedwayurthinkin (22/1)
* Langer Dan (11/2)
**** Banbridge (12/1)
** Hes A Hardy Bloke (16/1)
**** Chemical Energy (10/1)
*** Au Fleuron (25/1)
**** Cobblers Dream (16/1)
** I A Connect (20/1)
** Quinta Do Mar (50/1)
**** Freedom To Dream (22/1)
*** Perfect Attitude (50/1)
** Herbiers (50/1)
* Lucky Max (66/1)
Reserve Tank NON RUNNER
* Silver Sheen (80/1)
** Bigz Belief (125/1)
**** Party Business (40/1)
Conclusion
One star, Langer Dan was touched off last year, this year he’s 2lbs higher for that. Yes, he’s only run once this season, a pipe-opener for this. At least he’s short in the market and I can pass him over but he can go close again. The Goffer does look interesting. Trained by Gordon Elliott and winning a Grade 3 last time. Hollow Games, also trained by Elliott must have an excellent chance, 3rd in behind the Minella’s at the Dublin racing festival, he’s high in a ‘handicap’ in name only. In the same race, Freedom to Dream, was 12 lengths behind. He ran out of puff over the 2m 6f and may appreciate as shorter trip.
Selection
THE GOFFER e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365, Unibet, Betfred all 6pl)
