Tuesday 10 April 2018

Grand National 2018 - Horse Ratings

RANDOX HEALTH GRAND NATIONAL
4 Miles 2 Furlongs, 74 Yards, Grade 3 Handicap Chase


   1   Blaklion  (12/1)     ***
Travelled so well last year before fading into 4th, carrying 10lbs more this year, so has to be avoided i'm afraid.

  2  Anibale Fly  (12/1)     ***
Came from a mile back to claim 3rd in the Gold Cup. 9lbs "well in" after that (ie if the race was re-weighted, he'd carry top weight (2lbs more, and all the others 7lb less in this instance). He doesn't feel like a National horse as as he's only 8 he has time on his side to be one.

  3  The Last Samuri  (22/1)  ****
2nd in 2016, before lumping top weight around to 16th last year. A bit less to carry this year, but still too much. 

  4  Valseur Lido  (100/1)  ***
Ran just 16 days ago, I don't like that, weight is a little too high and all form at between 2m4 and 3m.

  5  Total Recall  (12/1)  ****
Was going ok in the Gold Cup before falling 4 out, previously he looked a good winner of the old Hennessey (now Ladbrokes Trophy). Was thrown in at the weights that day, but could be the one high in the weights that runs the best. He has only 9 chase starts, so a bit of leeway can be given, but as he's fallen twice in those 9 runs something to prove.

  6  Alpha Des Obeaux  (40/1)  *
8th in a Irish National (2017). More starts (7) this season than we want. Plenty of negatives, including no form (but in Grade 1s & 2s), no form at a trip and no big chase win mark him down.

  7  Perfect Candidate  (80/1)  ****
Pulled up last year, raced keenly and faded. Carries 3lbs less this year and nothing really wrong with him in many departments. Off for 69 days is a worry for him though and has place chances at best.

  8  Shantou Flyer  (33/1)  ****
Best run at Cheltenham last time. Probably didn't do himself justice last year when pulled up. He was only 7 at the time and maybe better this year. Has 24 chase starts behind him and 7 this season, that seems quite a lot and on balance is passed over.

  9  Tenor Nivernais  (125/1)  **
Well down the field last year and likely to struggle this year too.

10  Carlingford Lough  (50/1)  **
Grade 1 Chase winner over 3 miles. Not a bad weight for this, but age may have caught up with him now (he's 12).

11  Tiger Roll  (14/1)  *****
Won the Cross Country at Cheltenham. Stays all day, and is perfect on trends. However, no experience of the fences and pulled-up in his Irish National run last year (after winning at Cheltenham) is a worry.

12  Regal Encore  (33/1)  ****
Ran well for a staying on 8th last year, 3rd in the Ladbrokes Trophy behind Total Recall and can't be ruled out of making the frame. Worry is he won't stay and will be ridden to get the trip rather than threaten to win.

13  Vieux Lion Rouge  (33/1)  *****
Form not as strong as last year and that prevents him being perfect. Nice weight and has won over the fences. 7th and 6th in the last 2 renewals so sure to go well. Shortlisted again.

14  Chase The Spud  (40/1)  *****
Won the Midlands National last season, but last 2 runs have been pretty disappointing (albeit on heavy ground). Stays all day and shouldn't be 66/1. GB-Breds don't have a great record in the race (Rule The World, the only once since 2001)

15  Warriors Tale  (50/1)  **
Not good enough to win this type of race, considering stayer Chase The Spud is bigger in price, quite ridiculous really.

16  Seeyouatmidnight  (14/1)  **
They squeezed a run into him 3 weeks ago after being off all season, that's not good preparation and thus only has 9 starts over fences. 3rd in 2016's Scottish National so, maybe next season.

17  Gas Line Boy  (28/1)  ****
Won the Sefton Handicap over these fences in December, previously was 5th here last year and staying on when hampered at the last, no chance with the winner. Unseated the rider at the first in 2015. He's now 12, so slightly too old, been off for 98 days, so too long and and carries 3lbs more this season.

18  The Dutchman  (25/1)  ****
Just 8 starts, and only an 8 year old. Good winner of the Peter Marsh Handicap, but pulled up in the Grand National Trial and this looks a year or two too early for him.

19  Pleasant Company  (33/1)  **
9th last year, Failed loads of trends then and does now. Just 9 chase starts and only 2 disappointing runs this season.

20  Ucello Conti  (20/1)  ***
6th in 2016 and unseated at Becher's on the 2nd circuit in 2017. Just 2 starts this season and still hasn't stepped up into the good staying chaser some thought he would. I won't rule out, but he won't make my shortlist this year.

21  Saint Are  (66/1)  ***
2nd in 2015, behind Many Clouds, and then 10th in 2016, before a staying on 3rd last season. He's now 12 and only has 2 starts (both pulled up) this season. His chance may have gone, but place chances.

22  Raz De Maree  (25/1)  ****
Welsh National Winner at 13 years old (rescheduled in January so had his birthday). Hasn't run since (98 days). 8th in this back in 2014 and unlucky to unseat last year. I can't have him now and he will be a very bad trends buster for me if he did win.

23  I Just Know  (22/1)  ****
Would be the lowest RPR-rated winner for quite a while, but could have more to offer after his last chase win over 3m 6f (£16k race). Just the 10 starts and Sue Smith won this with the previous lowest RPR-rated winner in Auroras Encore

24  Virgilio  (80/1)  ****
Off for 4 months (had a wind operation). Not done too much in his career so far and nothing over a trip, so has to be ignored.

25  Baie Des Iles  (18/1)  ****
Stamina aplenty, but he's only 7 and isn't good enough this year, keep an eye out for him in future renewals.

26  Maggio  (100/1)  ****
He's now 13, and only 1 try over the fences (10th in the 2015 Topham). Stamina an issue and is easily opposed despite ticking all the other boxes.

27  Pendra  (100/1)  ***
Just 2 runs since his 13th in the 2016 renewal. A really good comeback run at Cheltenham last year and a not so hot return this season. Has to be ignored but a nagging doubt remains that he could be a threat.

28  Buywise  (66/1) ****
Won a Veteran's Handicap on his last chase run (first win for nearly 4 years). 12th in this in 2016. Always leaves himself too much to do and there are safer and more fun bets out there.

29  Childrens List  (100/1)  **
Just 4 starts, 2 this season and just a £6k win to his name. Stamina in pedigree, but not shown it in his fledgling chase career so far. Won't be winning this season

30  Lord Windermere  (66/1)  **
Gold Cup Winner in 2014, not shown it since and is now 12. Pulled-up here in 2015, before running surprising well for 7th last season. Just the one run this season and is ignored.

31  Captain Redbeard  (22/1)  ***
Gradually stepping up in trip, but nothing over this far. 6th in December's Sefton well behind Gas Line Boy and this looks like it's a bit too early for him. Maybe next year.

32  Houblon Des Obeaux (40/1)  ***
Been around forever (38 chase starts) but he's still only 11. 10th last year, runs ok in these staying chases, but always finds a few too good.

33  Bless The Wings  (66/1)  ***
Getting old now (13) and has 46 starts. Been running in Cross Country Chases nowadays, but was pulled-up in the Irish National, just 12 days ago.

34  Milansbar  (33/1)  *****
Been much better since the turn of the year, winning the Betfred Classic at Warwick and a nice 2nd in the Midlands National last month. Perfect on trends, but am worried that he's had 4 tough runs in 2018. Bryony Frost would make it a fairytale win.

35  Final Nudge  (50/1)  ***
Not done too much so far (£10k win), 3rd in the Welsh National. Needs a bit more to win this, this year.

36  Double Ross  (100/1)  **
Done ok over the fences (2 5ths over shorter and pulled-up in this in 2016). Still no win over 3 miles or more and at 12, he can't be winning now.

37  Road To Riches (66/1)  ***
25lbs down on his peak rating after his stellar season in 2014/15. But all form at 3 miles or so and been poor for a while now. Only run over a trip was last time when he pulled up in the Punchestown National Trial. Scope to improve on that and has the back-class to win off a featherweight if in the mood.

38  Thunder And Roses (80/1)  ****
Irish National winner in 2015 (beat Rule The World). Hasn't completed on either of his starts over these fences, but had excuses on both runs. Latest form is PFF (including the Irish National 12 days ago) so something to prove at the moment. 

39  Delusionofgrandeur (100/1)  ***
Staying form but at a lower level (£8k win), just 8 so could be ready for next season.

40  Walk In The Mill (100/1)  **
No form at this sort of trip and not good enough at the moment either. 



With the course currently heavy, we may have to include horses that have failed trends. We need horses that will stay and prefer a softer surface.
Tiger Roll is unproven on it, so I'm tending to swerve his perfect trends.
Vieux Lion Rouge jumps the fences, but prefers better ground, though he'll handle soft. Wait and see on that one.
Raz De Maree is 13, but won the Welsh National in January and has been kept off since. I don't like his age, but he'll be fresh and will stay.
Seeyouatmidnight has just the one start this season, he's placed in a Scottish National and handles heavy ground. He has to enter calculations.
Chase The Spud won the Midlands National, but 2 pulled ups on heavy since are a worry, however he can't be dismissed.
Milansbar has been consistent but has had 4 tough runs in the calendar year. Ground will be fine.

It'll be attritional and the fences will be slowly jumped toward the end. It will be a strange one, I hope the trends hold up, but these are my 4 to follow, 2 trends horses, 2 purely on the conditions.


SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT (16/1, Blacktype, 888, 14/1 general)
RAZ DE MAREE (25/1, general)
MILANSBAR (33/1, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Betbright, Betway)
CHASE THE SPUD (50/1 Betbright, 40/1 Bet365)


If you're going to the shops, I'm sure Paddy Power will have the most places, the rest of the high street will be pretty poor, so do it online if you can. Plenty of 6 places available, and 5 places everywhere else and probably best odds guaranteed. Oh and take a price in the shops, most will be shortened throughout the day.


Fingers crossed.





Monday 9 April 2018

Grand National 2018 - Trends Analysis


Last years winner, One For Arthur, was a pretty good fit on the trends. He was off the track for 84 days, the longest since at least 1988.  Every other winner since then had raced within 56 days. I took him off my 'shortlist' after the jockey wanted to sit out the back and pick off the field. My take on that was 'dodge lots of falling horses and need tons of luck'. But he did it well.

Once again we have a pretty strong set of trends to start off with.



Age - Horses aged 8-12.

No horse outside of this age range has won a Grand National since 1940 when Bogskar (aged 7) took the honours. The last horse older than 12 was Sergeant Murphy (aged 13) who won in 1923. Horses younger than 7 are now prevented from competing, they couldn't win anyway and need protecting from over-enthusiastic trainers and owners.
The last 10 winners were all aged between 8 and 11 years old. Amberleigh House won well as a 12 year old in 2004, the only one that old since 1995, however horses outside the 8-11 age range have just 2 places from 63 runners in the last 10 years.

10 Year Trends (won-placed-runners)
aged 6/7  0-0-28
aged 8     2-6-63
aged 9     3-12-117
aged 10   2-6-101
aged 11   3-3-53
aged 12   0-1-26
aged 13   0-1-7
aged 14   0-0-2



Distance Win - Winning form over at least 3 miles, preferably 3m1f+
Rule The World was a maiden when winning in 2016. He has finished 2nd in the Irish Grand National the season before, so had no stamina problems, just race winning ones.

Previously on Grand National blog:
*Not since Gay Trip won the race in 1970 has the winner previously not won a race over at least 3 miles. It seems logical that if you haven't won a race at 3 miles or more, you won't win one at 4m 21/2f.   *Apart from 2016.

To go a bit further, 14 of the previous 15 winners had won a chase over 3m 1f, and 11 of the last 14 had a top 3 finish over 3m 21/2f or further. The fences may be 'easier' and the distance 'shorter' (one through moving the start 200yds and the other when all racecoures were remeasured) but stamina is still extremely important at a marathon trip.



Weight Carried
Only 3 horses since 1983 had carried more than 11 stone 1lb. Those 3 have come since 2010, possibly due to the fences being a bit easier and the race shorter. However in the last 5 renewals, very few horses with weight were up there at the business end.

In 2013 only 1 horse within 50 lengths carried more than 11st.
In 2014 only 1 horse within 115 lengths carried more than 11st.
In 2015 only 1 horse within 90 lengths carried more than 11st. Excluding the winner.
In 2016 no horse within 147 lengths carried more than 11st 1lb. The ground was soft.
In 2017 no horse within 66 lengths carried more than 11st 1lb.

In total, just 4 horses were within 468 lengths of the winner in the last 5 years. So low weights are still preferred.


Race Fitness - Must have run within the previous 56 days
One For Arthur was off for 84 days. As we said above, every winner was off for a maximum of 56 days since at least 1988. Training methods are better now, so maybe something will win after even further off soon, but it will still pay to side with race fit horses.

Rough Quest had a break of only 16 days in 1996.



Form - Had finished in the first 3 in one of his last 3 starts.
Every horse needs to be in some sort of form, not necessarily winning form as we don't want that pesky handicapper finding us out do we. Even the hopelessly out of form 100/1 shot, Mon Mome, in 2009, managed a 2nd in the January of that year. Of course Auroras Encore (2013) wasn't placed in his previous 7 races to throw that out of the window but he'd run well in some decent Graded Handicaps. His last form was the previous April with a quality 2nd in the Scottish National. All other winners since 1988 had top 3 form.



Experience - Have run in at least 9 Chases
Horses need good jumping experience to win the Grand National. Every winner since Miinnehoma (9 Chase races) in 1994 has run in at least 10 Chases. You may want to give those with 9 races under their belt, the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't want to be affording others the same.



Class - Have won a chase worth at least £29,000
You still need to be classy enough to win the National. Bad horses still don't win. The horses at the lower end of the handicap will need to be scrutinised for this trend. Pineau De Reu won a £13,000 race, so leeway can be given if they tick most of the other boxes, but every other winner since Party Politics in 1992 had won a £17,000 Chase. (Apart from Rule The World, who ran in 7 chases worth £40k or more, and possibly would have won the Galway Plate if he hadn't stumbled between the last 2 fences).



Season Runs - Have raced between 3 and 6 times since August
Missed prep races, setbacks in training, bad planning and over-raced horses will find it tough to win the Grand National. Miinnehoma had only 2 races in the 1993-94 season before his win. Every winner since has had 4-6 runs, until Ballabriggs (with 3) broke that, but was so strong on all the other trends he was a must bet. We are looking for horses that have been kept ticking over throughout the season without going over the top.



Conclusion: Winning Profile
Aged 8-12
Won over more than 3 miles
Top 3 finish in a 3¼ mile Chase
Last run between 20-84 days ago
9+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £13k to the winner
Between 3-6 runs since August

If you want to refine it further


'Perfect' Profile
Aged 8 to 11
Won a 3m 1f Chase
Top 3 in a 3m 4f+ Chase
Carrying less than 11-02
Last run between 20-56 days ago
10+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £29k to the winner
Between 4-6 runs since August


Lastly, the last few years, Bet365 have been giving half of total stakes back on each way bets (up to £125). You must have had an account with them by the the wednesday to qualify. There's no guarantee that they will do the same this year, but it's worth opening an account with them if you don't have one already.


Good Luck

Tuesday 27 February 2018

2018 Cheltenham Festival - Day Four

JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE
2 Miles 179 Yards, Grade 1 4yo Hurdle


Overview
A very small field and a likely fast pace, should be a cracker of a race to start off the final day of Cheltenham. The trends are pretty strong and favourites have a good record.


Last 10 Winners- average 4.2 stars
2017  ****    Defi Du Seuil (5/2 fav)
2016  *****  Ivanovich Gorbatov (9/2 fav)
2015  *****  Peace And Co (2/1 fav)
2014  *****  Tiger Roll (10/1)
2013  ****    Our Conor (4/1)
2012  ***      Countrywide Flame (33/1)
2011  ****    Zarkandar (13/2)
2010  ****    Soldatino (6/1)
2009  *****  Zaynar (11/2)
2008  ***      Celestial Halo (5/1)


10-Year Trends
10/10 Had raced within the last 55 days.
10/10 Had won at least 50% of their hurdle races.
10/10 Had an OR of 84+ on the flat, or did not race on the flat.
  9/10 Were rated within 6lbs of the RPR top rated. [Celestial Halo (11lb)]
  9/10 Had raced over hurdles at least twice. 7 had run either 2 or 3 times. [Zarkandar, once]
  9/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 149. [Celestial Halo (145)]
  9/10 Had won one of their last 2 starts. 6 won their last start. [Countrywide Flame (2nd,3rd]
  8/10 Were from a flat Group 1 sire. [1 Exception was a Group 2 sire]
  8/10 Made their hurdles début after November 9th. [Exceptions, Jul 16th and Oct 15th]


Additionally
26 of the last 27 winners had at least 2 runs over hurdles.
19 of the last 24 winners had won last time out.
19 of the last 24 winners had won at least twice over hurdles.
Only 1 winner was rated lower than 80 on the flat since 1996.
11 of the last 13 winners (since the introduction of the Fred Winter) came from the first 4 in the betting.


Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky Henderson 3-4-15
Paul Nicholls 2-2-18
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 1-1-7
Willie Mullins (Ire) 0-4-16
Alan King 0-3-15
Dermot Weld (Ire) 0-2-2


Contenders
***      Farclas (15/2)
2 seconds in his career so far, (just behind Mr Adjudicator last time), but both in Graded races. Better than his 3 stars and don't rule out.

*          Gumball (50/1)
Started the season well, but found out at this level.

***      Mr Adjudicator (8/1)
Wasn't great on the flat, but now a Grade 1 winner. Not a Group winning sire marks him down.  

*****  Redicean (6/1)
3 from 3. Much better jumping last time in a Grade 2. Perfect on trends, but all 3 runs at Kempton (right-handed, flat track), so slight concerns about Cheltenham and although won on soft twice, last run was on good ground.

**        Saldier (12/1)
French recruit for Willie Mullins, 2nd string here. Just the 1 Hurdle run so far but won it on heavy.

**        Sayo (50/1)
Another Mullins with 1 hurdle start and win on bad ground.

***      Sussex Ranger (22/1)
3 decent hurdle runs, then back on the all-weather. Strange. Won on good and soft, but 2nd on heavy in Grade 1. Bit to find here, but place chance.

****    Apple's Shakira (7/4fav)
She's a worth favourite, with 3 wins here (on soft) and 2 of the Grade 2's. Sire is not of the standard of the usual winner.

***      Stormy Ireland (11/2)
Very easy winner on first start over here on heavy, but not run since, surely another run would have improved his chance.


Conclusion
Difficult to go against the favourite, but Redicean looked excellent last time, albeit on good ground. Farclas and Mr Adjudicator bring over the best form from Ireland.


Selections
No bet from me, market has it right, no each way play either. 




RANDOX HEALTH COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE
2 Miles 179 Yards, Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle


Overview
Arctic Fire killed the trends last year. He did finish runner-up to Faugheen in a Champion Hurdle, so maybe we'll let those into the shortlist next time. Hold-up horses are best as they go licketty split.


Last 10 Winners- average 4.3 stars
2017  *          Arctic Fire (20/1)
2016  ****    Superb Story (8/1)
2015  ***      Wicklow Brave (25/1)
2014  *****  Lac Fontana (11/1)
2013  *****  Ted Veale (10/1)
2012  *****  Alderwood (20/1)
2011  *****  Final Approach (10/1)
2010  *****  Thousand Stars (20/1)
2009  *****  American Trilogy (20/1)
2008  *****  Silver Jaro (50/1)


10-Year Trends
10/10 Had ran in a handicap.
  9/10 Had between 4 and 14 hurdle races. [Arctic Fire (17)]
  9/10 Were rated between 132 and 139 by the handicapper. [Arctic Fire (158)]
  9/10 Had achieved a RPR of 136 or more on a Left-Handed course. The last 9 winners, 139+.
  9/10 Had finished in the top 4 in either of their last 2 starts. [Wicklow Brave swerved at the start and was pulled-up just 6 days previous.]
  8/10 Had carried less than 11-01 [Wicklow Brave (11-04) and Arctic Fire (11-12)]
  8/10 Were aged either 5 or 6. [Exceptions 8 & 9yo]
  7/10 Had raced within the last 54 days.
  7/10 Had at least 4 runs in the season.
  7/10 Were top 2 in at least 40% of their seasonal hurdles runs.


Additionally
52 of the last 56 winners had carried less than 11-03.
51 of the last 57 winners were younger than 8.
The last 22 winners had handicap experience. Thumbs Up in 1993 the last not to.
19 of the last 24 winners has raced at least 4 times in the season.
18 of the last 23 winners had raced within the last 5 weeks.
Jockeys claiming 5lbs or more are 0/63 in the last 15 renewals
Horses dropping down in trip are 1/68 in the last 16 renewals


Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
  5yo 5-8-66
  6yo 3-7-77
  7yo 0-11-62
  8yo 2-1-28
  9yo 0-2-17
10yo 0-1-8
11yo 0-0-1


Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 4-4-22
Paul Nicholls 2-1-15
Tony Martin (Ire) 1-2-5
Philip Hobbs 0-7-15
Alan King 0-2-7
Jonjo O’Neill 0-2-10
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 0-2-10


Contenders
***      Bleu Et Rouge (10/1)
****    Jenkins (33/1)
***      Ivanovic Gorbatov (22/1)
**        Tigris River (50/1)
****    Lagostovegas (20/1)
***      Le Richebourg (40/1)
***      A Hare Breath (22/1)
***      Sandsend (14/1)
****    Remiluc (50/1)
****    Sternrubin (50/1)
**        Moon Racer (20/1)
****    Brelade (33/1)
*****  Meri Devie (14/1)
****    Whiskey Sour (14/1)
***      Divin Bere (40/1)
****    Flying Tiger (12/1)
***      All Set To Go (100/1)
****    Chesterfield (20/1)
*****  Spiritofthegames (20/1)
*****  Ben Dundee (14/1)
*****  Mohaayed (33/1)
****    Smaoineamh Alainn (16/1)
****    Duca De Thaix (9/1fav)
****    William H Bonney (25/1)



Conclusion/Shortlist
Duca De Thaix ticks plenty of boxes, but handicap debutants have a bad record in this. Meri Devie ticks boxes aplenty, but has been thrashed by Duca De Thaix. Flying Tiger won the Fred Winter last year and we have to like that, goes on any ground. Spiritofthegames was 3rd behind Kalashnikov in the Betfair Hurdle, so that's working out ok. Dan Skelton isn't clicking at the moment though. Ben Dundee is perfect on trends and has the Elliott/Russell combination with him. Needs to bounce back from average run last time. Finally William H Bonney like Cheltenham and can get closer to Spiritofthe games after an 8th in the Betfair Hurdle, he hasn't won for a while though and he may just finish out of the money. My three against the field are:


Selections
FLYING TIGER (11/1, general)
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES (12/1e/w, general, Skybet, Paddypower 6pl)
BEN DUNDEE (16/1 e/w, sportingbet, 14/1 Paddypower, 6pl)

My limit is 12/1 before I go e/w, happy to back 3 to win or each way.






ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
(REGISTERED AS THE SPA NOVICES’ HURDLE)
2 Miles 7 Furlongs, 213 Yards, Grade 1 Novice Hurdle


Overview
Penhill became the first Albert Bartlett horse to win the Stayers Hurdle yesterday. This race gives off more Gold Cup winners. 4 of the last 5 winners had 6 or more hurdles runs, so experience over talent for this, which is bad news for favourite Santini.



Last 10 Winners- average 4.1 stars
2017  *****  Penhill (16/1)
2016  ****    Unowhatimeanharry (11/1)
2015  *****  Martello Tower (14/1)
2014  *          Very Wood (33/1)
2013  *****  At Fishers Cross (11/8 fav)
2012  ****    Brindisi Breeze (7/1)
2011  *****  Bobs Worth (15/8 fav)
2010  **        Berties Dream (33/1)
2009  *****  Weapons Amnesty (8/1)
2008  *****  Nenuphar Collonges (9/1)


10-Year Trends
10/10 Had raced over hurdles at least 3 times.
10/10 Hadn't run for at least 27. Last 10 winners had also ran within the last 78 days.
  9/10 Were aged between 6 and 8. [Very Wood (5yo)]
  9/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of 146 or more. [Very Wood (143)]
  9/10 Were rated within 12lbs or the RP Top Rated. [Very Wood (18)]
  9/10 Had placed at Cheltenham during the season (4 won) or had been running in Ireland (4). [Brindisi Breeze an exception]
  8/10 Had won at 3 miles. [Bertie's Dream (2m41/2), and Very Wood won a 3m PtP.]
  8/10 Had won a Graded Hurdle. [Exceptions both Irish trained]
  7/10 Had finished top 2 in a Grade 2 Hurdle last time. [2 exceptions were 3rd and 4th, Uknowotimeanharry was a handicapper]


Additionally
12 of the 13 winners were aged 5-7. Aged 8+ were 0/21.
12 of the 13 winners finished top 4 in a Grade 2 hurdle last time.
12 of the 13 winners had won over 2m4f+.
11 of the 12 winners finished in the top 3 last time.
11 of the 13 winners had run in a 3m Hurdle.
10 of the last 12 winners had won a Graded Hurdle.

8 of the 13 winners started in the top 5 in the betting.
32 of the 39 placed horses finish in the top 2 last time.


Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 1-4-37
6yo 5-11-87
7yo 3-3-38
8yo 1-2-13
9yo 0-0-1


Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 1-4-28
Charles Byrnes (Ire) 1-1-4
Nicky Henderson 1-1-8
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 0-2-4
Paul Nicholls 0-2-7
Nigel Twiston-Davies 0-2-8


Contenders
*          Ballyward (22/1)
Just 2 runs so far and looks outclassed.

**        Beyond The Law (40/1)
7 runs, but nothing this far and has to be ignored here.

****    Calett Mad (16/1)
Very experienced, 15 runs over hurdles and fences. I feel Graded form for Graded events is the tiebreaker and he doesn't have that after all this time.

****    Chef Des Obeaux (11/2)
Boxes ticked, but British winners tend to run in one of the trials for this, so that's a negative.


****    Chris's Dream (8/1)
Easy Grade 3 winner last time, might find one or two too good, but has to to be respected.


**        Crucial Role (100/1)
Been running at Class 3 and hard to see him troubling the scorers here.


*          Dortmund Park (16/1)
Going to be popular (Elliott/Russell). Disappointing last time when fancied and that kills him on trends. Should be better than that, but unraced beyond 2m6, thought shaped as if he would stay, don't dismiss.


****    Enniscoffey Oscar (25/1)
Grade 2 winner last time on soft, no course form though and all other runs were on better ground. Big price though.


****    Fabulous Saga (33/1)
Bad run last time, Graded winner (twice) over 3 mile on heavy and shouldn't be 33/1.


*****  Kilbricken Storm (50/1)
Grade 2 winner 2 runs ago. Put in his place over 2m4 last time by Poetic Rhythm. Another big priced horse, though Colin Tizzard's horses hardly sparking at festival.


**        Mr Whipped (28/1)
Grade 2 winner over shorter, beaten in step up in trip. He's 5 and in these attritional contditions I'd prefer something proven at distance and older.


**        Mulcahys Hill (50/1)
Form over shorter, don't think he'll stay the trip.


*          Ok Corral (12/1)
Form over shorter and at a lower level. Sire stats say he should stay, but is the festival the place to test it.

*          Paisley Park (33/1)
Beaten by Mr Whipped over shorter. Ignore.


****    Poetic Rhythm (14/1)
Grade 1 winner over shorter. Stamina in pedigree and has 7 hurdles runs. If one could step up, he could be the one, or did he bottle a race against Samcro.


*          Real Steel (25/1)
5yo, well beaten at the top level over 2 mile.


*          Robin Waters (50/1)
5yo. Wins over shorter at a lower level.


****    Santini (4/1fav)
Classy Grade 2 winner, beat Black Op last time (form is good). Just 2 hurdles runs and has to be taken on. Both wins over shorter, but likely to stay, just could be outbattled by dour stayers.


**        Talkischeap (25/1)
Winning at a lower level, but could improve, but with so many proven horses in this, one to pass over.


***     Tower Bridge (25/1)
Outsider of 7 when beating a few of these last time. He's just 5, on balance there are better horses here.

Conclusion
Important to stress that hurdles experience and Graded form is very important. Its gonna be a slog for these young horses, so Graded 3 mile form is what I'm looking for. We are taking on the favourite.


Selections
ENNISCOFFEY OSCAR (22/1, William Hill, 4pl)
FABULOUS SAGA (33/1, William Hill, PaddyPower, 4pl)
KILBRICKEN STORM (50/1, William Hill, Paddypower, 4pl)






TIMICO CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE
3 Miles 2 Furlongs, 70 Yards, Grade 1 Chase


Overview
The trends won't sort out too many as there are plenty of good horses in this. But the horses running on heavy and horses beaten in a Previous Gold Cup additionals may be important. Not an outstanding year and doubts about every horse.



Last 10 Winners- average 4.6 stars
2017  *****  Sizing John (7/1)
2016  *****  Don Cossack (9/4 fav)
2015  *****  Coneygree (7/1)
2014  ***      Lord Windermere (20/1)
2013  *****  Bobs Worth (11/4 fav)
2012  *****  Synchronised (8/1)
2011  *****  Long Run (7/2 fav)
2010  ***      Imperial Commander (7/1)
2009  *****  Kauto Star (7/4 fav)
2008  *****  Denman (9/4)


10-Year Trends
10/10 Had a Grade 1 Chase win under their belt. 9 at 3 miles or more.
10/10 Were aged between 6 and 9 years old.
  9/10 Had raced between 2 and 5 times that season. [Bobs Worth (1)]
  9/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of 172+ for this race. [Exception Lord Windermere (161)]
  9/10 Had won a chase over 3 miles or more. [plus Imperial Commander won a 3m PtP.]
  8/10 Had less than 11 Chase starts. [Kauto Star (20) reclaimed his crown and Don Cossack (18)]
  8/10 Had recorded a seasonal Graded Chase win. [Exceptions were 2nd and 6th in Grade 1’s]
  8/10 Had won last time out. [Exceptions 5th and 6th in a Grade 1.]
  8/10 Were rated within 12lbs of the RP Top Rated. [Exceptions, 15 & 24lbs]
  8/10 Had been placed at a previous festival, 5 in the RSA Chase. [1 exception fell, the other hadn’t been to the festival]


Additionally
26 of the last 30 winners were top 4 last time
25 of the last 27 winners had raced at least twice that season.
22 of the last 24 winners were aged 7 to 9.
The last 17 winners had all won a Grade 1 Chase.
17 of the last 19 winners had won that season.
16 of the last 18 winners had an OR of 166 or more.
15 of the last 17 winners were all from the front 3 in the betting.
16 of the last 20 winners were placed at a previous festival.
15 of the last 17 winners had finished top 2 last time.
13 of the last 16 winners had been off for 65 days or less.
12 of the last 17 winners had finished top two at a festival
14 of the last 26 winners were second season chasers.
89 of the last 91 horses beaten in the race, were beaten again. [only Kauto Star and See More Business (c/o)] No horse beaten in their first Gold Cup this century has come back and won.
No horse aged 11 or more has won since 1969.
Only 3 horses have won with less than 6 Chase starts since 1963.
No winner has run on heavy ground in his winning season this century.


Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
  6yo 1-1-3
  7yo 1-8-20
  8yo 4-3-38
  9yo 4-3-32
10yo 0-3-21
11yo 0-2-9
12yo 0-0-3


Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Paul Nicholls 2-6-23
Nicky Henderson 2-2-9
Jonjo O’Neill 1-2-7
Willie Mullins (Ire) 0-5-12
David Bridgwater 0-2-4


Contenders
**       American (33/1)
Supplemented, but he's fragile and they are taking their chance while they can. 8 lenghts behind Definitely Red last time and same expected again.


**       Anibale Fly (33/1)
Not good enough and ground concerns.

**       Bachasson (33/1)
Unproven over 3 miles and not good enough on what we've seen

****   Definitly Red (12/1)
Only won a Grade 2 Chase, but the conditions will suit. Will stay and has a chance in this renewal.

****   Djakadam (33/1)
Hasn't won in his three goes at this. Runs well, but he's had his chance.

***** Edwulf (16/1)
Collapsed at the end of the 4 miler last year. Lazarus-like comeback in life and career as he went on to win the Irish Gold Cup in February. He may have been a bit lucky (Killultagh Vic fell when looking the winner), but has stamina to boot and tick all the boxes.

***     Killultagh Vic (10/1)
Talented, but makes a big mistake regularly (well 3 runs, 2 big mistakes). Risky prospect, but no surprise if he wins.

***** Might Bite (4/1fav)
Perfect on his trends. Best horse in the race, but 2 runs at Cheltenham and 2 wanders all over the place. Different track to his RSA triumph, but plenty of space to wander over the last. The bookies will be out to get him and I don't think he'll start favourite.

****   Native River (5/1)
Taken a while to get over his Gold Cup exertions last year, just the one run not ideal, and it was hardly a race. Have to oppose even though he's a thorough stayer and ground no problems.

***** Our Duke (5/1)

His run on heavy was over 2m4, so not as bad as it could have been. Beat novice Presenting Percy (won weds) giving him 7lbs and I reckon he'll start favourite.

***     Outlander (33/1)
Too old now and doesn't seem to get Cheltenham, running below par last year.

***** Road To Respect (12/1)
Would have been a bet on better ground. If the winds blew hard and it went good/soft in places he's come into the equation. Won a handicap impressively here last year but sire stats say he'll struggle to stay in the conditions.

**       Saphir Du Rheu (100/1)
Excellent 5th last season, but not good enough at the end of the day.

***     Tea For Two (100/1)
Fell early last year, not good enough to win, but if the race fell apart could place. There are better horses out there for that job, so is passed over.

***     Total Recall (22/1)
Wildcard, stays and conditions are fine. He's not at the level of the normal winner and shouldn't be up there, but I can't rule out.


Conclusion
Wide open, of the shorties, Our Duke is probably the most solid, but he has to jump more consistently. I think there's a shock coming.


Selections
DEFINITELY RED (12/1e/w, Paddypower, 4pl)
EDWULF (18/1, Boylsspots, Betway, 4pl)
ROAD TO RESPECT (if good/soft in description) (min 12/1 ew)





ST JAMES’S PLACE FOXHUNTER CHALLENGE CUP OPEN HUNTERS’ CHASE
3 Miles 2 Furlongs, 70 Yards, Class 2 Chase


Overview
The last 2 years have been awful for the trends, maybe we are experiencing a change, with bigger trainers bringing in some formerly half decent chasers (like Pacha Du Polder) to challenge. Pacha Du Polder shouldn't have been 16/1 last year. He should have won the year before if Victoria wasn't on board. 


Last 10 Winners- average 3.7 stars
2017  *          Pacha Du Polder (16/1)
2016  *          On The Fringe (13/8 fav)
2015  *****  On The Fringe (6/1)
2014  *****  Tammys Hill (15/2)
2013  *****  Salsify (2/1 fav)
2012  *****  Salsify (7/1)
2011  *****  Zemsky (33/1)
2010  ****    Baby Run (9/2 jt fav)
2009  ***      Cappa Bleu (11/2)
2008  ***      Amicelli (33/1)


10-Year Trends
  9/10 Had won over 3 miles or more. [Pacha Du Polder was 3rd in 2016]
  9/10 Were aged between 7 and 10. [On The Fringe won again aged 11]
  9/10 Had achieved a rating of 134+ over fences. [Cappa Bleu no runs under rules]
  9/10 Top 3 last time out. [On The Fringe, 7th]
  8/10 Had between 4 and 14 Chases.[On The Fringe won again with 18 starts, Pacha Du Polder (25)]
  8/10 Had not achieved an OR of 141 or more in their career. [On The Fringe went up to 147 and then Pacha Du Polder (150)]
  8/10 Had run within the last 41 days. The last 8, 20-41 in fact. The 2 exceptions off for at least 252 days had been Point-to-Pointing.
  7/10 Started their career in either Point-to-Points or Hunter Chases. [Exceptions, 2 flat runners and a bumper]


Additionally
23 of the last 24 winners had won under rules.
25 of the last 28 winners started their career in Point to Points or Hunter Chases.
24 of the last 27 winners were aged 10 or less.
24 of the last 32 winners had won last time.


Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
  6yo 0-0-3
  7yo 2-0-16
  8yo 2-5-35
  9yo 2-6-43
10yo 3-4-50
11yo 1-4-47
12yo 0-1-31
13yo 0-0-7
14yo 0-0-3


Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Enda Bolger (Ire) 2-1-5
Rodger Sweeney (Ire) 2-0-4
Paul Nicholls 1-1-11
Colin McBratney (Ire) 0-2-3
Warren Greatrex 0-2-4
James J Mangan (Ire) 0-2-4
Alan Hill 0-2-5


Contenders
***     Balnaslow (22/1)
Ran well last year, Derek O'Connor on board. Fails on experience and age, but has to enter consideration.



****   Barel Of Laughs (28/1)
Now 12, so the excellent third last year at 100/1 is unlikely to be repeated.




***** Burning Ambition (7/2fav)
Worthy favourite and has Jamie Codd on board.




***     Caid Du Berlais (14/1)
Was a decent chaser, so must be included if the trends are on the change, but is at a hunting yard now rather than a big trainer. Rarely raced in this ground must be a worry.

****   Cousin Pete (50/1)
Nice on trends, but isn't really good enough on what we've seen

***     Foxrock (8/1)



Didn't qualify last year (was ante-post favourite). Another good Chaser of the not so distant past. Don't ignore.

***     Grand Vision (20/1)
Have to rule out as he's 12 and not sure he'll stay.

**       Minella For Value (33/1)
12yo, ground may have gone against him as well.

**       On The Fringe (16/1)
Brilliant 4th (aged 12) for the former champion last year, but I'll oppose this teenager.

***     Pacha Du Polder (18/1)
The champion, no reason why he can't do it again, well there is. No Bryony Frost on this year and he's now 11. 

***     Premier Portrait (100/1)
Not great last year and now older.

**       Saddlers Encore (100/1)
Inexperienced, too inexperienced for this.

***     Shantou Magic (125/1)
Outclassed and too old.

*         Shotavodka (50/1)
Another decent old chaser, better over shorter, but I won't rule out.

***** Sir Jack Yeats (22/1)
Perfect on trends. Ground is ok. 7yo is a little young, but they do win.

*         Top Wood (50/1)
Beaten a long way this year, plenty of fails.

**       Unioniste (20/1)
Could be the new Pacha Du Polder, Nicholls trained. Been winning by plenty this year. 9th in the Kim Muir last year show some class is still there.

*         Vincitore (200/1)
Awful and doesn't like the ground.

**       Virak (14/1)
Was a decent chaser, but Unioniste thrashed him last time.

***     Volnay De Thaix (25/1)
Was running to a high standard until this season, can't rule out.

****   Warden Hill (66/1)
Best running on better ground, better bets out there.

***     Wells De Lune (40/1)
Won on heavy, but over shorter and has to be opposed.

**      Wonderful Charm (7/1)
2nd last year and another of those former decent chasers. Big chance again.

***     Young Hurricane (40/1)
Been running well, but on good ground. He's 12 as well.


Conclusion
Obviously its an amateur Gold Cup, so we're not going too mad here. The favourites shouldn't be dismissed, but I'll have a couple against the field.


Selections
SIR JACK YEATS (25/1 ew, Paddypower, 4pl)
UNIONISTE (16/1 ew, Paddypower, Skybet, 4pl)






MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’
HANDICAP HURDLE
2 Miles 4 Furlongs, 56 Yards, Class 2 Handicap Hurdle


Overview
Interesting consistent stats from the 9 winnings, we're looking for 2nd season hurdlers who may turn out to be classy, but basically are owned by Gigginstown Stud and trained by Gordon Elliott. 


Last 9 Winners- average 4.7 stars
2017  ****    Champagne Classic (12/1)
2016  ****    Ibis Du Rheu (14/1)
2015  *****  Killultagh Vic (7/1)
2014  *****  Don Poli (12/1)
2013  *****  Salubrious (16/1)
2012  *****  Attaglance (20/1)
2011  ****    Sir Des Champs (9/2 fav)
2010  *****  Pause And Clause (14/1)
2009  *****  Andytown (25/1)


9-Year Trends
9/9 Were aged either 5 or 6.
9/9 Were officially rated between 133 and 143.
9/9 had achieved an RPR of at least 136.
9/9 had less than 14 hurdles starts.
9/9 Had run within the last 52 days.
9/9 Carried a weight within 10lbs of the bottom weight.
8/9 Were 1st/2nd season hurdlers. [Ibis Du Rheu had 2 late runs in France before moving to Paul Nicholls]
8/9 Had won over 2m21/2f [Sir Des Champs had only won over 2m1/2f]
8/9 Had finished in the top 3 in one of their last two starts. [Pause And Clause was out of the frame on all 4 runs that season]


Additionally
27 of the 36 horses in the top 4 were 1st/2nd season hurdlers.
David Pipe is 0/18 in the race named after his father
Horses in headgear are 0/44.


Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
  4yo 0-1-1
  5yo 3-7-56
  6yo 6-9-70
  7yo 0-7-42
  8yo 0-2-25
  9yo 0-0-8
10yo 0-0-6
12yo 0-0-1


Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins (Ire) 3-2-14
Paul Nicholls 2-4-17
Nicky Henderson 1-4-22
Gordon Elliott (Ire) 1-3-10
Nigel Twiston-Davies 0-2-6
Philip Hobbs 0-2-14


Contenders
****   Blow By Blow (14/1)
****   Sire Du Berlais (10/1)
*         Flaxen Flare (66/1)
*         Dream Berry (28/1)
****   Early Doors (11/1)




***** No Hassle Hoff (50/1)
****   Brelan D'As (33/1)
****   Tommy Rapper (28/1)
****   Brillaire Momento (40/1)
***     Coer De Lion (33/1)
***     Carter McKay (16/1)
****   Dilire D'Estruval (40/1)
*         Mr Big Shot (16/1)
***     Arthington (66/1)
***** Flawless Escape (15/2jfav)
****   Diese De Bieffres (8/1)
****   Lough Derg Spirit (28/1)
****   Burrows Saint (18/1)
***** Melrose Boy (18/1)
***** Deal D'Estruval (15/2jfav)
****   Poppy Kay (66/1)
***     Discorama (40/1)
****   Brave Eagle (40/1)



Conclusion
You want a horse to come from off the pace, both Gordon Elliott's horses on my shortlist, Blow By Blow and Flawless Escape like to be prominent, but hopefully they'll be ridden with more restraint. Deal D'Estruvsal, at the top of the market looks to have a good chance, and will probably be held-up for a run. The 2 UK horses are Tommy Rapper (Dan Skelton is not in hot form) and Melrose Boy (Harry Fry). At the prices I'm siding with Melrose Boy (as a e/w bet) and Flawless Escape (owners).


Selections
FLAWLESS ESCAPE (15/2, Unibet, Blacktype)
MELROSE BOY (18/1 ew, Ladbrokes, Coral, 5pl)






JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL
CHALLENGE CUP HANDICAP CHASE
2 Miles 62 Yards, Grade 3 Handicap Chase


Overview
A plot race where previous renewals provide the best guide for winners. Usually you want pure chasers, but if the ground is soft, stamina may be important. It looks a dry day and if the ground does dry, we should be looking at the pure 2 milers and that's what I'm going to concentrate on.



Last 10 Winners- average 4.2 stars
2017  ***      Rock The World (10/1)
2016  *****  Solar Impulse (28/1)
2015  ****    Next Sensation (16/1)
2014  ***      Savello (16/1)
2013  *****  Alderwood (3/1 fav)
2012  *****  Bellvano (20/1)
2011  ***      Oiseau Du Nuit (40/1)
2010  *****  Pigeon Island (16/1)
2009  ****    Oh Crick (7/1)
2008  *****  Tiger Cry (15/2)


10-Year Trends
10/10 Had won over 2 miles 1 furlong or more.
  9/10 Had raced less than 13 times over fences. [Oiseau Du Nuit, 20 runs]
  9/10 Were aged between 6 and 9 years old. [Tiger Cry (10)]
  8/10 Finished in the top 3 in one of their last 2 completed races.
  8/10 Had raced at a previous festival.
  8/10 Hadn’t won this season. [both exceptions won Novice Chases]
  8/10 Carried less than 11-01. [Exceptions 11-05 and 11-06]
  7/10 Had raced within the last 54 days. [Exceptions, all the last 3 years (104, 92, 146)]
  7/10 Were officially rated between 129 and 143.
  7/10 Had run less than 5 times since August.


Additionally
18 of the last 19 winners had raced less than 13 times over fences.
17 of the last 18 winners were aged 10 or less.
15 of the last 18 winners had carried under 11-01 (incl claimers)
22 of the last 27 winners had raced within 45 days.


Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)
  5yo 0-2-5
  6yo 2-2-23
  7yo 1-10-44
  8yo 3-8-76
  9yo 3-3-43
10yo 1-2-28
11yo 0-2-12
12yo 0-0-1


Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky Henderson 1-7-26
Arthur Moore (Ire) 1-2-5
Michael Scudamore 1-1-3
Jessica Harrington (Ire) 1-1-3
Nigel Twiston-Davies 1-1-9
Colin Tizzard 1-1-10
Alan King 1-1-10
Paul Nicholls 1-1-15
Noel Meade (Ire) 0-2-2
David Pipe 0-2-7
Venetia Williams 0-2-12


Contenders
****   Garde La Victoire (33/1)
***     Forest Bihan (28/1)
***     Rock The World (25/1)
*         Gino Trail (33/1)
***     Vaniteux (12/1)
****   North Hill Harvey (9/1)
****   Le Prezien (16/1)
***     Don't Touch It (10/1)
***     Top Gamble (14/1)
****   Valdez (25/1)
****   Dolos (18/1)
***     Sizing Platinum (50/1)
***     Eastlake (33/1)
***** Some Plan (25/1)
***** Three Stars (20/1)
****   Townshend (25/1)
***     Dresden (40/1)
***     Foxtail Hill (25/1)
****   Bouvreuil (14/1)
***     The Game Changer (20/1)
****   Theinval (14/1)
***** Born Survivor (28/1)
***     Bright New Dawn (66/1)
***     Doitforthevillage (33/1)




Conclusion/Shortlist
Last years winner Rock The World is 3lbs higher in the weights this year, but can't be ruled out. drying ground would help him. North Hill Harvey could have run in the Arkle, he could be good enough carrying 11-8 (bottom weight is 10-11), but Dan Skelton is out of form and he likes to be pushing the pace. Le Prezien (8th last year) is a little too high in the weights this time. Dolos is only 5, but they can't be ruled out, he's high in the weights but could run well. Some Plan is the sort that could have been plotted for this, but he's 10 now which is a negative. The 2 with nicer profiles are Theinval and Townshend. Theinval runs off the same mark as last year's 3rd. He's a nice price and a dry day will suit. Willie Mullins' Townshend also could have run in the Arkle, he's a nice weight and could have been plotted for this after realising he wasn't good enough for the Arkle.


Selections
THEINVAL (18/1, Boylesports 4pl), 16/1 general, 5pl)
TOWNSHEND (22/1 Ladbrokes, 5pl)


GOOD LUCK, HOPE YOU HAD A FUN FESTIVAL