Friday 16 March 2012

Cheltenham Day 4 - Friday 16th March

Friday 16th March - Day 4

      1.30 - JCB Triumph Hurdle (4yo) – 2m1f – Grade 1
      The race for future Champion Hurdlers. In recent years the winner hasn't even been on the racecourse until the new year. Since the introduction of the Freed Winter 7 years ago, the winner has come from the first day of the betting, possibly meaning the days of big-priced winners have gone

10 Year Trends
10/10 Last run was between 20 and 55 days ago. I'm not sure I want do get rid of Asaid because he ran 19 days ago.
Removes: Dysios

9/10 Had run in 2-6 Hurdles. Zarkandar had raced only once last year so we don't want to be getting rid of too hastily
Removes: His Excellency

9/10 Have won last time out. Celestial Halo was 2nd, but had won their penultimate race.
Removes: Arctic Reach, Countrywide Flame, Hollow Tree, Mattoral, Ut De Sivola, Wingtips

9/10 Had won 50% or more of their Hurdles. All winners since the Fred Winter came into existence.
Removes: Dodging Bullets, Hisabaat

9/10 From a Group 1 sire. Soldatino (2010) was not, but the percentage play is to find one.
Removes: Baby Mix (fav), Urbain De Sivola

8/10 Had achieved a RP Rating of 127 or more. The last 7 achieved this so its getting stronger.
Removes: West Brit

7/10 A SP of not more than 9/1. The last 7 since the Fred Winter started in 2005.
Removes: Asaid

7/10 Had made his hurdling début after December 1st. The trend is for the winners to début later in the season, Zarkandar, just 3 weeks before this race. 7 of the last 8 debuted later rather than earlier. This will only be used to whittle down 6 horses into something more manageable.
Removes: Balder Succes,

Selections:
If we assume that Darroun (12/1) is too big in the betting, then we are left with 4.
all shorties.
The 2 that didn't win last time out are Sadler's Risk and Shadow Catcher and I'm leaving them off.
GRUMETI (7/1) seems to be a bit weak in the market this morning. Not sure why, he's pretty perfect but,
PEARL SWAN (7/1), who was disqualified last time we saw him, beat Grumeti earlier in the season.


      2.05 - Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle – 2m1f - Grade 3

Another great quality handicap to get my teeth into. I never pick the winner though, be warned. Master Of The Arts is a non-runner.

10 Year Trends
10/10 Had achieved a RP Hurdle rating of 129 or more on a Left-Handed course.
Removes: Ted Spread, Ifyouletmefinish, Ingleby Spirit and Court In Session.

9/10 Officially Rated between 128-144. Sporazene was 151 in 2004. Need to get these top rated horses beaten, they aren't set up to win.
Removes: Starluck, Clerk's Choice and Moon Dice.

9/10 Ran between 4 and 16 times over Hurdles. All at least 4 times. The last 9 fitted this stat.
Removes: Magnifique Etoile and Via Galilei.

9/10 Weight of less than 11-02. The last 8 were less than 11-00. However the bottom weight is 10-08, so I don't really want to be relying on it and will find something else to add for a removal.

9/10 Get rid of horses of bigger than 20/1. Silver Jaro (50/1) shocked punters 4 years ago. I will couple it with the weight-factor. Of course these sort of horses can place so I'm not ruling out a good run, it's just I want winners.
Removes: Ubi Ace, Desert Cry, The Bull Hayes, Dee Ee Williams, Alderwood, Lifestyle, Alarazi

8/10 Days off ranges from 13-68 days but the percentage is less than 37 days, but I want to take on horses out of the full zone to be sure.
Removes: Dirar and Snap Tie

7/10 5 and 6 year olds have won 7 of these. Certainly get rid of 10yo's or more.
Removes: Hell's Bay

Selections:
We have 8 runners to consider. Sailor's Warn (20/1) (11-05) is a little high in the weights. The same can be said of RAYA STAR (11/1), however he's a lot more consistent and won the Ladbroke Hurdle in December, and was 3rd in the Betfair Hurdle in February, the form being franked by Get Me Out Of Here and a running-on Zarkandar in the Champion Hurdle.
Local Hero (20/1) is German-Bred (0 wins from 64 in handicaps) and is no Raya Star.. out. Plan A (25/1) is a nice weight and was fav for the Fred Winter last year, so I won't rule him out of the places but has a few niggles trends-wise. If Paul Nicholls runners were in form (2 wins at fest and too many below-par runs) then Edgardo Sol (33/1) could be considered, but is now ignored.
The final 3 are all bets in my opinion.
Olofi (11/1), consistent this season and well fancied. But runs well without winning. Certainly one for the placepot .
REDARA (20/1) Been backed since yesterday and could be steamed a lot shorter later on. Has the perfect profile.
Citizenship (8/1) looks in great form and could be ahead of the handicapper. He's a worthy favourite, and a fair price, but Is too short for my each-way tendencies.
2 Bets but 4 fancies.


    1. - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Spa Novices Hurdle – 3m – Grade 1

Berties Dream made a certain West London pub dust off their champagne selection a couple of years ago, hopefully we can find another winner this year. Strong trends but only 7 renewals so far.

7-Year Trends
7/7 Achieved an RP Rating of 139 or more. No need to worry about a few in this field.
Removes: American Spin, Benheir, Big Occasion, Dawn Commander, Fill The Power, Fox Appeal, Grand Vision, Hard To Swallow, Meister Eckhart, Sivola De Sivola, The Bosses Cousin, The Druids Nephew and Tour Des Champs

7/7 Had run in at least 3 Hurdles.
Removes: Rocky Creek with just 2 runs, however he does hit every other trend.

7/7 Finished Top 4 in a Graded Hurdle in his last run.
Removes: Lovcen and Sea Of Thunder

Selections:
We are left with 4 runners, who pass all the remaining trends.
Boston Bob (6/4) is a very short favourite, he isn't a bet but a likely winner.
2nd favourite Mount Benbulen (13/2) is short too and I expect him to run a big race.
BRINDISI BREEZE (11/1, bet365) is a good e/w bet, he's also 11/2 “without fav”
My e/w bet is IPSOS DU BERLAIS (20/1) (16/1 w/o fav) who was behind Boston Bob and Mount Benbulen at Navan but I remember Berties Dream being the same type.


    1. - Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase – 3m21/2f – Grade 1

It's going to be immense. Long Run should outstay Kauto Star up the hill IF he jumps well enough. There plenty of good but not great horses in this so lets try and find a bet.

10 Year Trends
10/10 Had between 2 and 5 seasonal runs
Removes: Burton Port and Diamond Harry
10/10 Has a Grade 1 Chase win
Removes: Carruthers, China Rock, Knockara Beau, Midnight Chase, The Giant Bolster, The Midnight Club, Time For Rupert and Weird Al
9/10 Rated within 8lbs of the Top Rated horse (Long Run 187)
Removes: Quel Esprit, Synchronised and What A Friend

Selections:
The 2 favourites remain. LONG RUN (2/1fav) to beat Kauto Star (7/2).
Weird Al and Synchronised would be e/w bets if 12/1 or bigger.
Bets:
DIAMOND HARRY (w/o big 2) 18/1e/w with PaddyPower.
WHAT A FRIEND (w/o Long Run) 20/1ew with Coral


      4.00 - Christies' Foxhunters' Chase – 3m21/2f – Class 2

The Gold Cup for amateur jockeys. No Baby Run this year. NR is Theatre Diva

10-Year Trends
10/10 Won at 3 miles or more.
Removes: Chapoturgeon (fav), Picaroon

9/10 Had an RPR of 130 or more.
Removes: Blackstaff, Bradley, Count Salzar, Enter Paradise, Not Before Eight, Rowdy Rampage, My Flora

9/10 Aged 6-10. Earthmover was 13 in 2004. 9/10 yo's have won 6.
Removes: Cloudy Lane, Eleazer, Keenan's Future

7/10 Rated within 11lbs of the RP Top Rated (Chapoturgeon).

6/10 Won last time out. 2 more were top 3. Serious consideration to remove horses that fail the last 2.
Removes: Herons Well, Surenaga

Selections:
10 left. Dumping Roulez Cool (not run for 2 years). Blackstaff (23lbs from Top Rated). With Paul Nicholls out of sorts, I have to leave Just Amazing out. Salsify (6/1cfav) is a little short to bet with but is perfect trends-wise. Turko was well thrashed by Chapoturgeon, and at 10 is going backwards. Boxer Georg has little for over 3 miles and is ignored too. Oscar Delta is out of form and is passed over. On The Fringe (9/1) is now a little short for e/w backers but is a contender. Now we have 2 e/w bets. MERCHANT ROYAL (14/1) and BARBERS SHOP (former Gold Cup hopeful) (14/1). Both are perfect and are a nice prices.


      4.40 - Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle – 2m41/2f – Class 2

Just 3 runnings of this but from limited trends, we can give a couple of tentative small e/ws.

3-Year Trends
3/3 All 3 were 5 or 6 years olds. I can definitely remove any older than 7.
Removes: I'msingingtheblues, Like minded, Wolf Moon, Gormanstown Cuckoo, Art Professor

3/3 Officially Rated between 133-137. Tight I know, but it's a start.
Removes: Molotof (145)

3/3 Pre-race RP Rating of 137 or more
Removes: Toner D'Oudairies, Arab League, Oscar Nominee, Rigidity

3/3 Raced between 3-9 times over Hurdles. Get rid of exposed types.
Removes: Attaglance, Pateese, Street Entertainer, Ski Sunday, Bocciani (also German-bred)

Selections:
9 left. A couple of e/w bets hopefully. Tornado Bob is too high for handicaps at Cheltenham, (even with 3lbs claimed) Empire Levant is a Nicholls horse so is left alone. Bourne (11/2) won easily last time and can still be ahead of the handicapper, but is too short for me even if he is a good thing.
Headgear is a no-no in festival handicaps (except Pipe), so out go Knight Pass
Nigel Twiston-Davies has terrible handicap record (3 wins in 75), so bye-bye to Changing Times
I'm going to look towards Nicky Henderson as he's got the golden arm this week. He runs OPEN HEARTED (14/1) who fits the bill (also has Molotof and Oscar Nominee). David Pipe runs DAN BREEN (20/1) who is in form (good 2nd last time). The other two are Grandads House (16/1) and Make A Track (14/1) who are good for the placepot.
Low stakes please!!!! :-D


5.15 - Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Handicap) – 2m1/2f – Grade 3

The get out stakes. Had the 1st, 3rd and 4th in the trifecta last year. Hmmmmm.
French Opera keeps a lot of Henderson horses low in the handicap, so watch out for them. French Opera won't be winning though even with 5lbs off his back, every other
horse will be carrying less than 11 stone.

10-Year Trends
10/10 A win at 2m1f or more is essential
Removes: Toubab

10/10 Carrying less than 11 stone.
Removes: French Opera

9/10 Ran in less than 13 Chases. Always a decent cut-off for handicaps here. Certainly not more than 20, Oiseau De Nuit last year (who stays in)
Removes: Cornas (21), Renard (22) and De Boitron (27)

7/10 No more than 4 runs since August
7/10 A Course winner
7/10 Has festival form

Removing horses that fail all 3 of these.
Removes: King Edmund, Tara Royal, Lucky William and Ultimate

Other Considerations:
Non UK, French or Irish-Bred horses don't win Cheltenham handicaps,
Removes: Bellvano (Ger) and Idarah (USA)

Blinkers:
Kumbeshwar ran superbly at the festival last year but..... blinkers for Alan King.. out!!

Free World and Norther Bay are running from out of the handicap so I will let them go (although 3 winners did defy it)

Astracad is a Twiston-Davies horse (bad handicap record), so is ignored.

Selections:
Kid Cassidy (6/1fav)is too short and has no Cheltenham experience. Last years winner Oiseau De Nuit (14/1) with 28 runs, can run well but is no 40/1 shot this year. I have to oppose.
TANKS FOR THAT (14/1) is Henderson/Geraghty so could be shorter come the start as people look for a winner. He should be on the shortlist. ANQUETTA (28/1) is the Henderson 2nd string but still hits all the trends you need, add to placepot. SLIEVEARDAGH (14/1) is ultra-consistent in Ireland and although has no course form has to be considered. ERADICATE (14/1) complete the hatrick of Henderson horses, but I've thought a lot about him all season and he's RP Top Rated if you like that sort of stuff. That's 4 for the lucky last..... I hope we don't need it.




Thursday 15 March 2012

Cheltenham Day 3 - Thursday 15th March

Thursday 15th March - Day 3

      1.30 - Jewson Novices' Chase (Golden Miller Chase) – 2m4f – Grade 2

It's inception last year hasn't turned out to be a particularly strong with Noble Prince and Wishfull Thinking not living up to star billing. If we take what Nopbel Prince has shown before thd race as a marker, then we hopefully can point to something

Noble Prince had:
Won a Chase over 2m4f
Ran to a RP Chase Rating of 156+
Was Placed in a Grade 1 Chase
Aged 7
Had run in 3 or more chases
Had won that season
Was Top 2 in all Chase finishes that season

On this evidence we have narrowed the field down to PEDDLERS CROSS (7/2fav). Not original but he is the best horse in the race and isn't a bad price. Yesterdays genius, Nicky Henderson, runs SOLIX (8/1) and I certainly won't be putting you off him. There is not a lot at a big each-way price that I fancy so if you go for those 2 against the field hopefully you may get a decent run for your money.


      2.05 - Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) – 3m - Listed

Uber-competative staying handicap hurdle in which Buena Vista (10/1) goes for the hat-trick. Right lets look for something for the frame at least.

10-Year Trends
10/10 Officially Rated less than 142.
Removes: Restless Harry, Ashkazar, Our Father, Russian War, Pettifour, Rick, Sergent Guib's and Sir Kezbah

9/10 Aged 6-9, or are Beuna Vista..
Removes: Catch Me, Houblon Des Obeaux, Reindeer Dippin, and Kayf Aramis

9/10 Days since last run 20-48 or are Buena Vista
Removes: Sonovic, and Cantlow

9/10 Won a Class 3 hurdle. The last 6 have.
Removes: Pineau De Re, Barwell Bridge

9/10 Weight. 9 winners carried less than 11-02. The last 5 carried less than 10-10. And I will need to use this if I have too many contenders at the end.

9/10 Had winning form between 2m4 and 2m6. The last 7 winners had won over this shorter distance.
Removes: Scotsbrook Cloud

Selections:
7 left to pick from. Going to dump Bellflower Boy and the hattrick-seeking Buena Vista as they are a bit too exposed, not that exposed types can't or don't win. Prince Erik has a good profile, but is well out of sorts this season. Palace Jester and Thehillofuineach have form on softer ground and I have to dump them. CAPE TRIBULATION (20/1) is really interesting here and used to be well fancied in certain quarters. He has a good profile and is a very nice price. The other standout horse is ACROSS THE BAY (25/1), McCain and Maguire have had a good festival and this is a nice price.


      2.40 - Ryanair Chase – 2m5f – Grade 1

I'd already decided who I was backing in this a while ago. But I will go through the trends anyway. Realt Dubh is a non-runner.

7 Year Trends
7/7 Best RP Rating of 158+

7/7 OR of 152 or more
Removes: Little Josh

7/7 Course winner. Could be broken this year as some big horses have failed this.
Removes: Kalahari King, Medermit, Riverside Theatre, Rubi Light, Somersby, Blazing Tempo

7/7 Aged less than 11 or is Albertas Run (won the last 2)

7/7 Top 2 in his either of his last 2 finishes.
Removes: Forpadydeplasters, Great Endeavour

Selections:
I'm ruling out Albertas Run (10/1). Hes been off for 145 days and is now 11. I backed him 2 years ago at a ridiculous 14/1, I hope he runs well but not with my money. Noble Prince (7/1) is drifting to a nice price, but the form of last years Jewson isn't working out well and lost to Big Zeb twice this season. 2 left. CAPTAIN CHRIS (12/1) looks huge if everything lands right for him and I will sugest him each-way. The horse I really fancy at 20/1 is POQUELIN. Loves the course and was 2nd 2 years ago. Also nice to see him not lumping a huge weight around in a handicap.


      3.20 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle – 3m – Grade 1
Big Buck's goes for his 4th World Hurlde and 16th straight win. We all want him to win, but its my job to find somwthing else. Lets be honest right now. He should win and I won't be oposing him in the outright market.

10 Year Trends
10/10 Top 2 last time out.
Removes: Carlito Brigante, Five Dream, Mourad, Thousand Stars

10/10 Less than 5 runs since August.
Removes: Mikael D'Haguenet

10/10 No Irish-Bred/trained winner.
Removes: Cross Kennon, Oscar Whisky, Voler La Vedette

10/10 Top 2 in every season's hurdle run
Removes: Dynaste (and So Young was 6th in May so is allowed a bit of lee-way)

10/10 No horse wearing headgear has won.

9/10 Have run to a RP Rating of 165 or more.
Removes: Smad Place and So Young

Selections: BIG BUCK'S (8/11fav). Best horse and lets hope he wins. I have to have a bet and it will be SMAD PLACE (16/1 without Big Buck's), who definitely has a chance of a top 4 place. If Voler La Vedette (9/1) was longer in the same market, then she would also be a bet.

      4.00 - Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase) – 2m5f – Grade 3
Lovely Handicap Chase with some strong trends. 2 non-runners, Rebel Du Marquis and Jack The Giant.

10 Year Trends
10/10 Won a Class 3 Chase
Removes: Schindlers Gold and The Cockney Mackem, (Mad Moose only won a Hurdle)

10/10 Won a race over 2m3f to 2m5f.
Removes: Crack Away Jack

10/10 Did not run in either Cheltenham's Paddy Power Gold Cup or Atlantic4 Gold Cup (in December) that season.
Removes: Matuhi, Finger on the Pulse, Divers, Holmwood Legend, Salut Flo and Fine Parchment

9/10 Finished in the top 5 last time out. All 8 of the last winners were in some sort of form.
Removes: Tartak, Gilbarry, Mad Moose, Charingworth, Glam Gerry and Radetsky March (his only fail).

9/10 Had taken part in at least 3 and no more than 15 Chases. Mister McGoldrick shocked the field with 33 Chases @ 66/1, 4 years ago.
Removes: Life Of A Luso (18 runs) (also out of the handicap). Kilcrea Asla (17) (also faild a couple of other)

8/10 A weight under 10-11 is desirable, but no winner carried more than 11-7.
Removes: Giorgio Quercus

Selections:
Of the 4 left, GANSEY (40/1) is 10, but that doesn't stop 3 winners in the last 10 years, but isn't ideal, however 40/1 is a huge price and just for that he's in my book. Hector's Choice (12/1) is a little high in the weights for me but I definitely won't put you off backing him. Notus De La Tour (14/1) is ultra-consistent and Connor O'Farrell takes off 3lbs. I expect him to be in the mix. My little star NICEONEFRANKIE (10/1) has got in and has been backed off the boards since yesterday morning (was 25/1). He's now not an e/w price but he is almost a perfect fit for this off a featherweight too.


4.40 - Fulke Walwyn/Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (for Amateur Riders) – 3m11/2f – Class 2

Tough handicap to end the day. I think I ruled out 1... lol... Non-runner is The Sawyer leaving 23.

10 Year Trends
10/10 Were rated within 8lbs of the RP top Rated (Summery Justice 155)
Removes: Your Busy, Brackloon High and Gurtacrue

10/10 Ran over 3 miles or more last time out.
Removes: Becauseicouldntsee, Benbane Head, The Hollinwell, Slippers Percy and Piraya

10/10 Were Officially Rated between 124- and 140
Removes: Up The Beat, Exmoor Ranfger and Sunnyhillboy

9/10 Aged 7-9 years old. The last 7. Certainly not older than 10.
Removes: Swing Bill and Faasel

8/10 Had won at 3 miles or more. The last 6 winners had.
Removes: Frontier Spirit, Fredo and Time For Spring
8/10 Top 3 run in one of his last 2 runs, unless trained by Martin (and possibly David) Pipe
Removes: Be There In Five.

Selections:
To be honest, as I said previously this is so open and think I definitely ruled out 5. I'm left with 6 after applying the trends.
Mostly Bob (18/1) has a course win this season and a 7lb claimer on board.
Midnight Appeal (14/1) has chances after being ultra-consistent this season. Blinkers worked well the first time, last time out. Blinkered horses don't have a good record in Cheltenham handicaps (unless David Pipe puts them on)
START ME UP (16/1). Don't discount. Comes over from Ireland and has a good record under Nina Carberry
Adams Island (20/1). 1st-time blinkers might fire him up, but they have a poor record at the festival.
SUMMERY JUSTICE (16/1) (RP top rated). A little inexperience, but stable in good form and is preferred.
SONA SASTA (22/1) is my hunch. Low weight but David Pipe has a really good strkie rate in handicaps at the festival and is the man to apply the blinkers at the right time.

Wednesday 14 March 2012

Cheltenham Day 2 - Wednesday 14th March

Wednesday 14th March - Day2

A quick note about yesterday, 2 easy odds-on winners are not to be bragged about. 2 placed horses, but no winner and a break-even day for the blog. Today does not get any easier.

1.30 - Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Novices' Chase (for Amateur Riders) - 4m - Class 2

The longest race at the festival and certainly not the sort of race you want if you need a good start to the second day. I had Old Benny (9/1) and Poker De Sivola (14/1) in the last few years but the trends have taken a battering in between with Tricky Tickster and Chicago Grey popping up. I've had a look and to be honest I've halved the field. Not good enough. Hopefully the winner is in there and I will pick out  an each-way selection

10 Year Trends
Before I cross some off...  Most of the 10 year trends are imperfect thanks to one horse..... Butlers Cabin in 2007. He then went and won the Irish National in April of the same year. Nice stepping stone.

10/10     At least 3 Chase starts. I don't think this is a great place to begin with only 1 or 2 Chase runs under you belt, so it seems a logical place to start and rule out a few. Harry The Viking actually passes every stat apart from this, so you could allow him it off, but it's still going against 10 years of facts (even Butler's Cabin).
Removes: Ben's Folly, Bob N You, Daffern Seal, Harry The Viking (jfav) and Soll are too inexperienced.

9/10     9 winners had finished Top 2 in a 3mile Chase in their infancy. another logical event to scale down the field over 4 miles.
Removes: Allee Garde (jfav), Leggy Lad, State Benefit and Our Victoria

9/10     Won over 3 miles. Doesn't reduce the field by any but its there.

9/10     Top 5 last time. You could allow horses some wriggle room here but some sort of top 2 form in it's last 2 runs would be nice. Cottage Oak is one such beast and is expunged from our shotlist.
Removes: Cottage Oak

8/10     were 7 or 8 years old. They do provide most of the runners, but other ages are W2 Pl6 from 74 runners and it's the percentage call to look at this narrow band.

There are other trends to partially take into account but in the end I had 10 horses that can win this. I really don't want to take them apart on a bit of nothing and be left without the winner. The "perfect"  horses are as follows: Blenheim Brook (20/1), Court Red Handed (66/1) and Universal Soldier (14/1). 
I'm going to look for a little quality from my selections and pick horses that are within 12lbs of the RP Top Rated (Teaforthree).
Selections: 
Teaforthree (7/1). I'm happy to recommend this for the placepot. I like the way he's gone about things, he does tick every box, but I don't really like 4 milers coming into the race off an 18 day break. He'd be in the book if was a nice each-way price that is for sure.
UNIVERSAL SOLDIER does tick all the boxes and I want to be onside at a nice each-way price. 14/1 is good for me and he will carry my money tomorrow.
Alfie Spinner (9/1) is pretty consistant and he's also one for the placepot for me.
Court Red Handed (66/1). Fits all the trends, but isn't really good enough on all known form.
Blenheim Brook (20/1) also fits all the trends but all his runs are in tiny field so don't be impressed ny all those twos.
Of the rest, if you are looking for Four Commanders (11/1, Irish steamer of the day) ,Iron Chancellor (33/1) and Our Island (33/1), I don't think they are good enough to win but have place chances.
My e/w bet is Universal Soldier, but only as a tentative pick. Good Luck!!!


2.05 - Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle - 2m5f - Grade 1

I'm not going to beat about the bush. I do only see 2 horses winning and i'm not going to give anything too extreme.

10 Year Trends
10/10     5 and 6 year old's hold sway, winning all 10.. Most runners are that age though. 5 4yo's have raced and none have placed yet. 3 7yo's have placed (from 29 runners) and older horses are 0-0-5.
Removes: Balderdash, Fiulin, Natural High, Sunny Ledgend and Secret Edge.

9/10     9 Winners have run to a RPR of 142 or more before the race. This hopefully is a great stat here as it kills all but 5 of the chances. Woop woop.. The only horse not to get to that rating was Fiveforthree (2008) who had only run in 1 Hurdle beforehand. The 1 hurdle stat (also for Galileo in 2002) gives us the excuse to chop off a lot of horses with some of the trends. So the following are either running over hurdles for the 2nd time or haven't hit the heady heights of 142 with the Racing Post.
Removes: Brass Tax, Close House, Cotton Mill, Double Ross, Felix Yonger, Make Your Mark, Nagpur, Nelson's Bridge and The Tracy Shuffle

5 are left. 
9/10    Had won 50% of all hurdles. Massinis Maguire (a 20/1 shock winner in 2007 did not) and this will rule out Batonnier (8/1) and Sous Les Cieux (13/2). They have decent place chances, but are not for me.

3 against the Field. Beneficient (20/1) was a shock 50/1 winner, beating Sous Les Criux last time at Leopardstown and he won't get the soft lead he did then. That's what everyone says and it seems to be reflected in the price, but this looks weak and i think he deserves some respect. The 2 against the field are SIMONSIG (5/2fav) who looks very very solid indead and with Fingal Bay out, should seriously be considered. MONKSLAND is the 2nd favourite (11/2) and looks the part too trendswise. He hasn't beaten too much but you can only beat whats in front of you and has improved for every race.



2.40 - RSA  Chase - 3m1/2f - Grade 1

This looks to revolve around the super novice Grands Crus but has to break a 10 year trend of having a run within the last 53 days. Newbury's abandonment forced him to miss his engagement, however he is the best horse here and should win. But I don't want to remove horses just because they were denied a run through bad weather. So horses will be failing 2 trends.

10 Year Trends
10/10     Did not come from the flat
10/10     Finished Top 2 last time out
Removes: Walkon
10/10     Had raced withing the last 53 days.
10/10     Ran in a Grade Chase
Removes:Join Together
10/10     Had run in 3-8 Chases
9/10      Were rated within 14lbs of the RP Top Rated horse
Removes: Call The Police, Canningron Brook and First Lieutenant
9/10      No more than 16 runs in whole career
Removes: Mr Moonshine
9/10      Were aged 7 or 8 year old. Chapoturgeon was 5. Avoid horses older than 8. (Call The Police)

Selection:
Bob's Worth (4/1) hits all the trends. He's not set the world alight this year but loves Cheltenham and hosed up in the Albert Bartlett last year. Too short for me
GRANDS CRUS (11/8fav) off for 79 days, has to crack that trend to win, but he should do and I'm on his side.
LAMBRO (25/1) hits many of the trends, he's not quite good enough according to the Racing Post but may run a big race. I can't recommend him as a bet though.


3.20 Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase - 2m - Grade 1

Doesn't look to be much depth to the Champion Chase this year and the top 3 in the market, especially Sizing Europe, looks to have it wrapped up between them.

10 year Trends
10/10     All have won over the extended 2m1f.
10/10     All had at leasy 8 Chases under their belt
Removes: Finians Rainbow
10/10     Have less than 4 seasonal runs.
Removes: Gauvain, Sizing Europe and Wishfull Thinking
9/10     Rated within 10lbs of the RP Top Rated
9/10     Aged 5-9. This goes against the 2 former champions, but I would not worry too much about that.       Moscow Flyer came back and won at 11.
Removes: I'm So Lucky (fails the last 2 trends)
9/10     Had run a RPR of at least 166 pre-race.
Removes: Realt Dubh (also not within 10lbs of Sizing Europe
9/10     Had won a Grade 1 Chase. 4 of the field have Grade 2 wins under their belt but need to improve to win this one. They are Kauto Stone and (Gauvain, I'm So Lucky and Wishfull Thinking)
8/10     Had won a Graded Chase last time, this would knock out every horse bar, Sizing Europe,

Selections:
Sizing Europe doesn't fil all of the trends this year but is the best horse in the race, however he doesn't offer any value to me. I like BIG ZEB and he was travelling really well vs Sizing last time before losing by a false margin of 15 lenghs on heavy ground. This better ground will suit both but it will be a lot closer today. Finians Rainbow is a hype horse who won't get up the hill. I'm not confident that anything else is a banker each-way each-way. Wishfull Thinking can't do anything right and has ability on his day, but hasn't had one of those this season. Kauto Stone may win a race, but probably next season.


4.00 Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) - 2m5f - Grade 3
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A Competative 28 runners and with the bottom weight being 10-05, I wouldn't be ruling out too much at the top of the handicap, however the winner is usually plotted to win and horses on 11-03 or more aren't really plotted with. No 100% solid trends, so i will be looking for 2 fails before removing from my bets.

10 Year Trends:
9/10     Won at 2m2 to 2m6f
9/10     Won a Class 3 Hurdle or better.
Removes: Abergavenney
9/10     Racing weight is under 11-03 Sky's The Limit is one of only 3 Top-Weights to win a handicap in the last 10 years. (the other 2 in the Cross Country)
Removes:  Get Me Out Of Here
9/10     Aged 5-7. Burntoakboy was 9 in 2007. Horses 8+ are 1-6-85 in this race.
Removes: Cockney Trucker, Shoreacres and Dare Me
9/10     Off the track for a month or more. Plots, plots and more plots...
Removes: Carlito Brigante, Third Intention, Final Approach, Megastar, Consigliere and Poole Master
9/10     OR of 128-144. Monkerhostin was 147 in 2004.
Removes: Featherbed Lane
9/10     Had won in the season. All of the last 9 had a seasonal win under their belts.
Removes: Stonemaster, Silverhand and Son Of Flicka
8/10     At least 5 hurdle runs, and not more than 9 please.
Removes: Balgarry
8/10     Top 6 in his last race if possible. 8 of last 9. Spirit River in 2010 was unplaced LTO,
Removes:Golan Way

Selections: 11 left. First of all the perfect profile comes from FIRST FANDANGO (33/1) who also has a claimer on board for Tim Vaughan and has 10 stone on his back. Of the others, former winner, Spirit River is interesting, but has been off the track for 110 days. He's 20/1. Tenor Nivernais (33/1) Saphir River (40/1)and Bally Legend (66/1) look a little exposed for this but still have place claims. If Veiled (28/1) was in better form from either of his runs this season then I could heartilly recommend, but doesn't and I'm against.
David Pipe handicap horses should always be respected at the festival. Star Of Angels (33/1) is 8 years old though and I do want to be agianst the older horses. ACT OF KALINISI (18/1) ticks a lot of boxed, hasn't won this year, but is in good form His trainer, Dr Richard Newland, has won this and I want to be onside.
Knight Pass looks a little inexperienced, having only 4 hurdle runs. He may run well but no horse this inexperienced has won this and is opposed. The final horse is CAPE DUTCH (18/1). His trainer John Ferguson has set the world alight in his first season as a jumps trainer and this ticks most of the boxes. Has 5 seasonal runs to his name, but they are all solid and the bare 10 stone he's going to be carrying gives him a great chance. Hopefully I've pointed you towards the winner... Good luck, you will need it.


4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle - 2m1/2f - Grade 3

Seven year of trends for this 4yo Handicap Hurdle, Pricewise has catapulted one of my fancies to the top of the market but more of that later.

7 Year Trends (removals will fail 2)
7/7     Didn't win in his first season on the flat. Hadn't won in first 2 starts ofer hurdles. A muddling stat that rules out half the field
7/7     Was from a Group 1 winning flat sire.
Removes: Kapga De Cerisy, Arnaud, Moujik Borget and Ulck Du Lin
7/7     Good enough to have a flat rating of 85 or more (if he qualified)
Removes: Sportsmaster, Kie, Kazlian, Dark And Dangerous, Une Artiste, Royal Bonsai, Chill
7/7    Officially Rated between 115-133 (ignored as the top rated is only 5lbs higher than this)
6/7     Not more than 5 Hurdle runs. Gaspara had 10 in 2007.
Removes:  One Cool Shabra (12)
5/7     Had won last time out (other 2 ran in tough Graded Hurdle)
Removes: Soliwery, Ardlui, Blue Cannon


Selections:
VENDOR (5/1fav) is an obvious choice and for favourite backers has the right profile to win this. On the drift thanks to GORGEOUS SIXTY (8/1), he is now a nice price. Sixty is pricewise and had halved in price this morning. he was 8th in a Grade 1 last time and looks perfectly suited for this. My each-way pick is EDEYMI (16/1) who is a little high in the weights but is entitled to be there or there abouts. Others that I've rejected but can't be ruled out are. Argocat (20/1) wasn't good enough on the flat. Colebrook (80/1) wasn't either and looks a little exposed now. Bat Masterson (25/1) was 3rd in a Grade 2 race last time, but looks exposed and wasn't good enough on the flat. Lemon Drop Red (28/1) is another average flat runner but is US-bred and they have a poor handicap record at Cheltenham. High Samana (50/1) isnt good enough.
Jackies Solitaire (25/1) has too many doublts in a few boxes to be considered.


5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard NH Flat Race)


10 Year Trends
10/10      Won a Bumper with 13 or more runners.
Removes: Champagne Fever, Glenwood Present, Many Clouds, Piano Concerto, Pique Sous, The Romford Pele, Vilage Vic, Yes Way Hosay, Horatio Hornblower, Jezki, New Year's Eve and Virginia Ash
9/10     Only Cue Card was 4 years old. So each horse must be taken on merit nowadays.
9/10     Won last time.The last 8 have so its worth siding with.
Removes: Ifandbutwhynot.
8/10     Pre-race RP Rating of 118 or more.Cue Card and Cousin Vinny had only 1 race though.
8/10     Had won a Bumper worth £4,000 or more. The last 2 did not so this must be ignored.
7/10     Irish-bred.. Not the last 2 years, open your mind....
7/10     A month off is helpful but not necessary.

Selections:
7 are left from the 20. Circular Quay (40/1) has the same trend misses as Cue Card and can't be ruled out. But more is required (obviously) on a faster surface. Clonban Lad (20/1) is a strange one as he has only won a bumper with 11 runners, but has a point-to-point victory in a large field. Should be struck off but I don't want to take him out with a funny profile. Form is on heavy and soft so will need to prove he can take to faster ground. MOSCOW MANNON (15/2) has the perfect profile and I expect a good run for your money. Favourite New Year's Eve (6/1) has a terrible profile and he's lay material. Royal Guardsman (8/1) has a good profile but is too short for me compared to MM, and a 4th at Aintree to SIR JOHNSON (12/1) means my money is leaning towards him. COOL GEORGE (28/1) is a 4yo with just 1 run, very Cue Card-esque and is an each-way pick. Finally The New One (12/1) is 4, but hits all the other trends. He's a little short for a 4yo and although he's won both starts, the form doesn't look great and while he can run well, I won't include him