Grand National - Horse by Horse

1. Don't Push It (9/1fav). Last years winner and new favourite. Carries too much weight and is out of form this year.
2. Tidal Bay (40/1). Too much weight, but may be staying on late on for a place.
3. What A Friend (14/1). 4th in Gold Cup. Grade 1 winner last year, but surely carrying too much weight. Would be a fairytale for Sir Alex.
4. Vic Venturi (50/1). Always looked the right sort to win and should be up at the front, but too high in the weights now and out of form. Place prospects if he gets round.
5. Majestic Concorde (33/1). Hasn't run for 3 months and too inexperienced for this, and I haven't even menitoned the weight its carrying. Avoid
6. Or Noir De Somoza (66/1). French raider. No run for 11 weeks and too high in the weights and hasn't won over 3 miles... Avoid!!
7. Dooneys Gate (66/1). No run for 66 days and has won a decent race yet. Possible place prospects, but unlikely.
8. Big Fella Thanks (18/1). 6th, 2 years ago when too young, then 4th last year. Should be up there but form figures of 2P44 this seson will have to be improved on to win this.
9. The Tother One (80/1). Only 3 runs this season is a negative and with no run for 10 weeks, will have to be ultra-fit to win.
10. Ballabriggs (18/1). Geared towards this race all season. Only 3 seasonal runs (all in 2011) is the main negative but a big run expected.

11. The Midnight Club (11/1). Ruby Walsh on board, but is inexperienced. Only 2 runs this season is big negative.
12. Niche Market (22/1). looks the sort to win this, not in form but excuses for that (all good Class 1s). Pulled Up last year, but Irish GN winner in 2009.
13. Silver By Nature (18/1). Won the GN trial at Haydock but only 3 runs this season. Big chance if he can overcome that trend.
14. BACKSTAGE (NAP) (14/1). The most perfect horse in the race. Now all he has to do is WIN. Trainer won this in 2007 and jockey won in 1999.
15. Chief Dan George (50/1). Nice horse, fell at Cheltenham early on. A little on old side but good place chances.
16. Calgary Bay (40/1). Was decent a couple of years ago but not the same horse since. Off track for 10 weeks is his only negative.
17 Killyglen (66/1). Another perfect horse, only problem is he hasn't done too much and his last win was at this meeting 2 years ago.
18. Oscar Time (14/1). 2nd in last season's Irish National, only 10 Chase starts barely gets him in and only 3 runs this season.. Better prospects elsewhere.
19. Quinz (18/1). Good looking horse and may win it next year, but too inexperienced to win this...probably
20. Becauseicouldntsee (33/1). Not good enough even without being inexperienced and without a run in 3 months. Add his only 3m win was in a Point to Point in Ireland and we have an early faller in the making.... if it wins, I'll eat my proverbial hat.

21. Comply Or Die (66/1). 2008 winner and 2009 R/Up. 12th last year and 12yo now. Likely to finish but far behind the winner.
22. Quolibet (200/1). An inexperienced horse that hasn't won over 3 miles. Pray you don't get this in the sweepstake.
23. Grand Slam Hero (100/1). Surely outclassed, and ran plenty of times over the summer. Off the track for 2 months rounds off why he can't win.
24. State Of Play (33/1). Placed in both his Grand National runs. Not run since then and fitness taken on trust. No reason why he can't be up there, but he can't win it can he?
25. King Fontaine (100/1). Trend perfect (just) and a good 5th at Cheltenham. Only 9 Chase starts (4 wins) means he's inexperienced and only won an £18,000 race. Place chances?
26. In Compliance (66/1). Was potentially a very good horse a couple of years ago, but off track with injuries. Better over 2 1/2m and not this slog.
27. Hello Bud (40/1). Won the Becher Chase in November (over these fences) and former winner of Scottish GN. 5th in last year's GN. But 13yo now, so that rules him out and only 3 runs this season (off track 12 weeks) big negatives on top.
28. West End Rocker (33/1). Won't rule this one out. Fits all the trends, but 3 runs this season a small negative.
29. Santa's Son (200/1). Might finish around Christmas time. No wins over 3 miles and 7 runs this season is over the optimum.
30. Bluesea Cracker (25/1). No female winner since 1951, but she did win the Irish GN last season @ 25/1 so trip should be ok. 3 runs since and out of the frame each time is not what a Grand National winner looks like though.

31. That's Rhythm (150/1). Off the track for 4 months and has yet to win a decent quality Chase. Add in form of 059 in his last 3 starts and you can see why he won't be taking home any money this time.
32. Surface To Air (100/1). 1 run since Jun 2008 (when he won the Summer National at Uttoxeter (4m1f). This is only his 5th Chase start. These are stunning negatives. Might be a contender if he had more experience.
33. Piraya (200/1). Out of form and doesn't stay more than 3 miles let alone this. 13th last year about a lap behind.
34. Can't Buy Time (100/1). Tony McCoy doesn't fancy him even though he does fit many of the trends. Badly out of form, so winning this would be a huge shock. Avoid!!
35. Character Building (33/1). Nina Carberry on board and a grey. Likely to start shorter than this at 4.15 tomorrow with all those housewives on it. A staying on 7th last year. Now an 11yo, a slight negative, but that's it's only negative so may get placed if raced closer to the pace.
36. Ornais (125/1). Too inexperienced after being off the track for over 2 years until Feb. Can't win.
37. Arbor Supreme (20/1). 2nd to The Midnight Club in Feb. Hits all the trends apart from having 4+ runs this season. Decent place claims.
38. Royal Rosa (100/1). A 12yo now and retiring after the race. Would be a fairytale end to a decent career, but off for 3 months rules the old git out of the running.
39. Skippers Brig (33/1). Beat Ballabriggs and Chief Dan George last time but that was completely different to this. Not won a Chase worth £17,000 or more is a big negative, and only 3 runs this season is not good either. May get a place.
40. Golden Kite (80/1). Hits all the major trends, but has run 7 times since last April. Would be a shock if he won, but there are worse horses out there.

Grand National Trends 2011

We all know by now that the winner of the Grand National hits certain trends year after year and isn't the "lottery" we are told it is. Lets start with an easy one.


Age:
The Grand National horses need to have stamina and a little speed to win, younger horses don't have the stamina built up yet and the older horses get round but far too slowly, so thats why the since 1940, 8-12 year olds have won every race.
The last 7 year old to win was Bogskar in 1940. The last 13 year old was Sergeant Murphy in 1923. In fact the last 6 winners were aged 9-10, but for now we want horses aged 8-12.
Bye Bye to Quinz (7), Quolibet (7), Hello Bud (13)

Stamina:
The last horse without a win at 3 miles or more was Gay Trip in 1970. If you haven't won at 3 miles, how do you win at 4 1/2 miles.
Laters Or Noir De Somoza,  In Compliance, Santa's Son, Piraya



Class:
Right. Class is important. Party Politics (1992) was the last horse that hadn't won a race worth £17,000 to the winner. Horses must have some sort of 'Big Race' form. Bad horses don't win.
Horses not good enough are  Dooneys Gate, Becauseicouldn'tsee,  Grand Slam Hero, That's Rhythm
and Skippers Brig

Form:
You must have some sort of form to win the National. The last 21 winners had at least a Top 3 finish in one of their last 3 runs.
This now rules out last year's winner Don't Push It, Vic Venturi, Big Fella Thanks, Niche Market, Bluesea Cracker and Can't Buy Time

Fitness:
The last 21 winners all had a race under their belts within the last 49 days. Horses from a longer lay off are sharp enough for this race.
Out go Majestic Concorde, The Tother One, Calgary Bay, State Of Play and Royal Rosa.


Experience:
You need to have jumped a fair few fences to win the National. I'm going to say 9 races or more. This rules out the favourite The Midnight Club, Surface To Air and Ornais

Weight:
Finally we get to the tricky one. Weight.  Horses carrying more than 11 stone just couldn't win the National but that was when you had lots of horses running off bottom weight of 10 stone. Now that the quality of runners has improved, and the bottom weights are bigger than 10-00, 11-00+ winners are coming into it. This years bottom weight is 10-02, which is lower than normal and no horse has won carrying more than 11-05 since Red Rum in 1977. So rule out horses carrying more than 11-05.
Good-bye to Tidal Bay and What A Friend, far too good for this race.

This leaves us with 12 good chances. I want to get that down to something manageable so I'm going to add another stat in.

Winners of this race have raced at least 4 times in the season. Horses with an interupted campaign just aren't able to tun to the best of their ability and are founds wanting at the end.
Out go horses with 3 runs Ballabriggs, Silver By Nature, Oscar Time, Comply Or Die, West End Rocker and Arbor Supreme. Golden Kite has actually run 'too many' times but a few of them were in the summer and he's border line. He's also 100/1 or so, so unlikely to win.

Back to the Age thing. I really want to be on the side of 9 & 10yo's. So reluctantly I'm chucking out Chief Dan George and Character Building, who are both 11.

This leaves 3 horses who have 'perfect' profiles...
Backstage (14/1, Stan James & William Hill), Killyglen (66/1, Bet365, Skybet, Vcbet, Coral) and King Fontaine (100/1, totesport)

There you have it.....  12 on the list and 3 shortlisted 'winners'.
Most bookies online are going 5 places. vcbet are 6 places. Avoid Betfred, Coral and William Hill as they are all paying 4 (I imagine Ladbrokes will too). If you are betting in the shop, please take a price at the counter. Most of the time it will be bigger than the Starting Price.

Good luck