JCB
TRIUMPH HURDLE
2
Miles 179 Yards, Grade 1 4yo Hurdle
Overview
Pentland
Hills
bust all the trends last year (most due to his only run being 18 days
before). I didn’t rule him out thankfully, but the sad death of Sir
Erec
put a dampener on the day for all those involved in racing.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.5 stars
2019
** Pentland Hills (20/1)
2018
**** Farclas (9/1)
2017
***** Defi Du Seuil (5/2 fav)
2016
***** Ivanovich Gorbatov (9/2 fav)
2015
***** Peace And Co (2/1 fav)
2014
***** Tiger Roll (10/1)
2013
***** Our Conor (4/1)
2012
**** Countrywide Flame (33/1)
2011
***** Zarkandar (13/2)
2010
***** Soldatino (6/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had raced within the last 49 days.
9/10
Had an OR of 84+ on the flat, or did not race on the flat.
[Pentland
Hills
(73)]
9/10
Were rated within 6lbs of the RPR top rated.
[Pentland
Hills
(21lbs)]
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 149. [OR 140]
[Pentland
Hills
(139]
9/10
Had won at least 50% of their hurdle races. [Farclas,
2 seconds last year.]
8/10
Had won
a Grade 1 or 2 Hurdle or were 2nd
in a Grade 1. [Ivanovich
Gorbatov
was, a 9 length, 4th
in a Grade 1, Pentland
Hills
won his only start in a Maiden]
8/10
Had raced over hurdles at least twice. 6 had run either 2 or 3 times.
[Zarkandar
and
Pentland Hills,
once]
8/10
Had won one of their last 2 starts. 6 won their last start.
[Exceptions form was ‘23’ and ‘22’ ]
8/10
Were from a flat Group 1 sire. [1 Exception was a Group 2 sire]
8/10
Made their hurdles début after November 9th. [Exceptions, Jul 16th
and
Oct 15th]
Additionally
27
of the last 29 winners had at least 2 runs over hurdles.
20
of the last 26 winners had won last time out.
19
of the last 26 winners had won at least twice over hurdles.
Only
2 winners was rated lower than 80 on the flat since 1996.
11
of the last 15 winners (since the introduction of the Fred Winter)
came from the first 4 in the betting.
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Paul
Nicholls 1-2-19
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 0-5-20
Joseph
O’Brien (Ire) 0-1-3 and 1 under his father’s licence
Alan
King 0-1-13
Contenders
Conclusion
Allmankind,
Aspire
Tower,
Goshen
and Solo
all set the standard here, Solo
is top rated and has had the most recent run of the 4. You’d like
to see Allmankind
run since Christmas and Aspire
Tower,
since his final flight fall. Sir
Psycho
seems awfully short on what he’s done so far. Never
do Nothing,
at a big price, has won a Grade 2, but hasn’t been seen since
before Christmas, so fitness would have to be taken on trust. The
filly, Burning
Victory
has one start, they threw her into a Grade 3 first time, and she won.
Can’t put you off any at the top of the market, with preference for
Solo
and Goshen
and e/w Burning
Victory.
Selections
BURNING
VICTORY @ 16/1, Bet365,
Betfair/Paddy Power
RANDOX
HEALTH COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE
2
Miles 179 Yards, Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle
Overview
The
last 4 winners have come off of a break of at least 80 days. 3 were
trained by Dan
Skelton.
He
runs only Mohaayed
(won
in 2018). He’s dropped down the handicap and is 3lb higher than 2
years ago and has had a wind operation. Done.. yeah? Ok, maybe Willie
Mullins then.
We’d best go through all the horses, before coming back and backing
one of these trainers.
Last
10 Winners- average 4.4 stars
2019
*** Ch’tibello
(12/1)
2018
***** Mohaayed (33/1)
2017
*** Arctic Fire (20/1)
2016
***** Superb Story (8/1)
2015
*** Wicklow Brave (25/1)
2014
***** Lac Fontana (11/1)
2013
***** Ted Veale (10/1)
2012
***** Alderwood (20/1)
2011
***** Final Approach (10/1)
2010
***** Thousand Stars (20/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had ran in a handicap.
9 placed.
10/10
Had achieved a RPR of 139 or more on a Left-Handed course.
10/10
Were aged between
5 and
8.
9/10
Had finished in the top 4 in either of their last 2 starts. [Wicklow
Brave swerved
at the start and was pulled-up just 6 days previous.]
8/10
Had between 4 and 14 hurdle races. [Arctic
Fire (17)
and Ch’tibello
(19)]
8/10
Were rated between 134 and 139 by the handicapper. [Arctic
Fire (158)
and Ch’tibello
(146)]
8/10
Ran on the flat.
7/10
Had carried less than 11-01 [Exceptions
11-4,
11-5 and 11-12]
7/10
Had at least 4 runs in the season.
7/10
Were top 2 in at least 40% of their seasonal hurdles runs.
Additionally
53
of the last 58 winners had carried less than 11-03.
52
of the last 59 winners were younger than 8.
The
last 24 winners had handicap experience. Thumbs
Up in
1993 the last not to.
21
of the last 26 winners has raced at least 4 times in the season.
18
of the last 25 winners had raced within the last 5 weeks.
Jockeys
claiming 5lbs or more are 0/71 in the last 18 renewals.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
3-10-71
6yo
4-8-72
7yo
0-6-61
8yo
3-2-28
9yo
0-3-15
10yo
0-1-11
11yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 4-6-30
Dan
Skelton 3-0-8
Paul
Nicholls 2-1-16
Philip
Hobbs 0-6-16
Nicky
Henderson 0-3-18
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 0-2-15
Contenders
Conclusion
I
think my trends are wrong. This is a changing handicap. Ive got
Aramon,
a Grade 1 winner in his novice campaign, last season, rated as no
chance and a load of donkeys at the bottom, only getting a stone from
him rated much higher. Aramon’s
problem is its
his handicap debut, inexperience of the big fields. He’s been poor
this season (why he’s in a handicap) but still. He’s a bit of
Arctic
Fire
about him, but he’s no Arctic
Fire.
Saint
Roi
is favourite, he’s had 3 runs, and won 1 maiden. I can’t have
him, what’s he done to warrant such high esteem. My trends aren’t
that bad, are they? Righto, Mohaayed.
I just don’t think he’s the right fit any more, he’s just a bit
more exposed, a bit more out of form. He could have had a wind-op 2
years ago before winning, just to make sure he was more likely to
win. I just don’t know. 2 I would like on board though are.
Stolen
Silver,
Grade 2 winner 2 runs ago, before a creditable 8th
in the Betfair Hurdle (handicap debut). He was also 2nd
to Chantry House (3rd
Supreme) earlier in the season. Thatsy
is Elliott/Russell, so expect it to shorten in the day. Another who’s
last run could’ve been better, but you need luck in running in big
handicaps and there no-one better than Davy Russell at finding them.
Russell wasn’t on his last 2 races and must go close today.
Selections
STOLEN
SILVER @ 14/1, bet365, Skybet (6pl)
THATSY
@ 12/1, general. 6 places around.
ALBERT
BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
(REGISTERED
AS THE SPA NOVICES’ HURDLE)
2
Miles 7 Furlongs, 213 Yards, Grade 1 Novice Hurdle
Overview
The
6th
double figure SP winner in a row. A trends-buster in
Minella Indo,
who hadn’t shown too much in either of his 2 hurdles starts.
Last
10 Winners- average 3.6 stars
2014
* Minella
Indo (50/1)
2018
***** Kilbricken Storm (33/1)
2017
***** Penhill (16/1)
2016
**** Unowhatimeanharry(11/1)
2015
***** Martello Tower (14/1)
2014
* Very Wood (33/1)
2013
***** At Fishers Cross (11/8 fav)
2012
**** Brindisi Breeze (7/1)
2011
**** Bobs Worth (15/8 fav)
2010
** Berties Dream (33/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Hadn't run for at least 27 days. Last 10 winners had also ran within
the last 78.
9/10
Had raced over hurdles at least 3 times. [Minella
Indo,
twice]
9/10
Were aged between 6 and 8. [Very
Wood (5yo)]
9/10
Had placed at Cheltenham during the season (4 won) or had been
running in Ireland (4). [Brindisi
Breeze an
exception]
8/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 150 or more. [Very
Wood (143)
& Minella
Indo
(147)]
8/10
Were rated within 12lbs or the RP Top Rated. [Very
Wood (18)
& Minella
Indo
(13)]
8/10
Had won at 3 miles (including Point-to-Points). [Exceptions won over
2m41/2f]
7/10
Had won a Graded Hurdle. [Exceptions all
Irish trained]
7/10
Had finished top 3 in a Grade 1 or 2 Hurdle last time. [Exceptions
were 4th
(Grade
2), won a Class 2 Handicap and 2nd
in a Grade 3]
Additionally
14
of the 15 winners were aged 5-7.
13
of the 15 winners finished top 4 in a Grade 1 or 2 hurdle last time.
14
of the 15 winners had won over 2m4f+.
13
of the last 14 winners finished in the top 3 last time.
13
of the 15 winners had run in a 3m Hurdle.
11
of the last 14 winners had won a Graded Hurdle.
35
of the 43 placed horses finish in the top 2 last time.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
1-5-38
6yo
5-11-100
7yo
3-2-31
8yo
1-2-11
9yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 1-4-32
Nicky
Henderson 1-3-14
Henry
De Bromhead 1-1-3
Colin
Tizzard 1-1-9
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 0-3-7
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-2-8
Contenders
Conclusion
Lets
start by concentrating on the Graded form. We’ll assume Minella
Indo
(also with 2 runs) was a blip! Monkfish,
Sempo,
Cobbler’s
Way,
no Graded win, not for me, let them win. Thyme
Hill,
the best horse in the Ballymore if Envoi
Allen
was winning the Supreme, is in the slog. He’s not a slogger, he’s
better than that. His Graded successes (3 of them) are all at the
Ballymore distance. There’s plenty in here that can out stay him
and I’m not confident. Drying conditions will suit, but hmmm.
Redford
Road
has a Grade 2, here (new Course) over 3 miles under his belt. Its his
only try at the distance, but he was poor last time over shorter and
those in both races have hardly franked the form. Its a race for big
priced winners, so don’t rule him out. Harry
Senior
should stay, but that’s taken on trust. He won a Ballymore Trial
here, before bottling a race v
Envoi Allen
too. Fury
Road
will be popular for Elliott/Russell, but was beaten by Latest
Exhibition
at the Dublin Festival. He has loved it since stepping up to 2m4f and
then 2m6f last time and ticks most boxes.
This
is a race for the experienced, get the job done, no frills brigade.
This is a job for RAMSES
DE TEILLEE,
Older than your average winner, but you don’t get many like him in
this. 2nd
in the Welsh Grand National, 3 wins over fences and he made his
hurdles debut in December 2016. He’s won all 3 starts back over
hurdles, including 2 Grade 2s. He probably hasn’t beaten too much
but he stays all day and will be a popular winner.
Selection
RAMSES
DE TEILLEE @
14/1 e/w , William Hill (3 places) or 12/1 general (4 places)
MAGNERS
CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE
3
Miles 2 Furlongs, 70 Yards, Grade 1 Chase
Overview
We
bagged the winner last year, and he’s had the same preparation
this season. Its hard to go back to back, let’s see if he can.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.2 stars
2019
*** Al
Boum Photo (12/1)
2018
***** Native River (5/1)
2017
***** Sizing John (7/1)
2016
**** Don Cossack (9/4 fav)
2015
***** Coneygree (7/1)
2014
*** Lord Windermere (20/1)
2013
***** Bobs Worth (11/4 fav)
2012
**** Synchronised (8/1)
2011
***** Long Run (7/2 fav)
2010
*** Imperial Commander (7/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had a Grade 1 Chase win under their belt. 8 at 3 miles or more.
10/10
Were aged between 6 and 9 years old.
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 172+ for this race.[OR 164] [Lord
Windermere (161/OR152)]
8/10
Had won a chase over 3 miles or more. [Imperial
Commander won
a 3m PtP., Al
Boum Photo
ran out at the last whilst a
likely winner]
8/10
Had raced fewer
than 4
times that season. [Exceptions, 4
& 5]
8/10
Had won last time out. [Exceptions 5th
and
6th
in
a Grade 1.]
8/10
Were rated within 12lbs of the RP Top Rated. [Exceptions, 15 &
24lbs]
8/10
Had less than 11 Chase starts. [Exceptions 12, 18 & previous
winner, 20 ]
7/10
Had recorded a seasonal Graded Chase win. [Exceptions were 2nd
&
6th
in
a Grade 1, and a Listed winner on only run.]
7/10
Had been placed at a previous festival, 4 in the RSA Chase. [2
exceptions fell, the other hadn’t been to the festival]
Additionally
28
of the last 32 winners were top 4 last time
24
of the last 26 winners were aged 7 to 9.
25
of the last 29 winners had raced at least twice that season.
The
last 19 winners had all won a Grade 1 Chase.
19
of the last 21 winners had won that season.
17
of the last 20 winners had an OR of 166 or more.
17
of the last 19 winners had finished top 2 last time.
16
of the last 19 winners were all from the front 3 in the betting.
17
of the last 22 winners were placed at a previous festival.
14
of the last 18 winners had been off for 65 days or less.
13
of the last 18 winners had finished top two at a festival
15
of the last 28 winners were second season chasers.
97
of the last 100 horses beaten in the race, were beaten again. [Native
River (3rd
in 2017), Kauto
Star (regaining
the trophy) and See
More Business (c/o)]
No
horse aged 11 or more has won since 1969.
Only
3 horses have won with less than 6 Chase starts since 1963.
No
winner has run on heavy ground in his winning season this century.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
1-1-3
7yo
2-7-22
8yo
4-4-37
9yo
3-3-38
10yo
0-3-19
11yo
0-2-8
12yo
0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 2-3-10
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 1-5-20
Jonjo
O’Neill 1-1-4
Nigel
Twiston-Davies
1-1-4
Colin
Tizzard 1-1-7
Paul
Nicholls 0-3-17
David
Bridgwater 0-2-4
Contenders
Conclusion
This
looks a cracking renewal, and I’d say that all bar 2 could win. I
was worried that the perfect horse, Delta
Work,
wouldn’t get his ground, but its gonna be a dry day and he needs to
see good-soft in the going description for me to recommend. Al
Boum Photo
has had the same season as last year, but without the blips and
should run well again. But winning Gold Cups does take it out of you.
Presenting
Percy
has actually had a proper season for once and will be up and around.
Clan
Des Obeaux
is a year stronger and can improve on last year. Santini still hasn’t
won a Grade 1, yet is 2nd
favourite. Lostintranslation,
disappointing in the King George has had a wind-op and can’t be
ruled out. Monalee will plod on and stays. Bristol De Mai’s 3rd
last year was excellent, but I can’t see him there this year. Of
course I haven’t even mentioned Kemboy, last years 1st
fence faller. He had a great season last year (bar this). His not
looked his old self in 2 runs (Delta Work beat him in both), but
still has ability, maybe Aintree is his track though. Chris’s Dream
could be the fly in the ointment, but hasn’t done it at the highest
level so far.
Selections
DELTA
WORK
@ 5/1, Coral, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Bet365
ST
JAMES’S PLACE FOXHUNTER CHALLENGE CUP
OPEN
HUNTERS’ CHASE
3
Miles 2 Furlongs, 70 Yards, Class 2 Chase
Overview
The
Gold Cup for amateur jockeys. There are classier horses running in it
now, though like last year a classy Hunter Chaser can
still win. Hazel
Hill
became the 5th
ten year old (or older) in a row to win, after younger horses had
dominated for a bit and aged has never been a barrier to success with
Earthmover
winning aged 13 just in
2004.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.0 stars
2019
***** Hazel
Hill (7/2 fav)
2018
**** Pacha Du Polder (25/1)
2017
*** Pacha Du Polder (16/1)
2016
**** On The Fringe (13/8 fav)
2015
***** On The Fringe (6/1)
2014
***** Tammys Hill (15/2)
2013
***** Salsify (2/1 fav)
2012
*** Salsify (7/1)
2011
**** Zemsky (33/1)
2010
**** Baby Run (9/2 jt fav)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Sire or DamSire’s Stamina Index was 12.0 or more. The last 9
winners (13.1f)
10/10
Had achieved a rating of 134+ over fences.
10/10
Had run within the last 53 days.
10/10
Had raced over at least 17 races in career.
9/10
Had won over 3 miles or more. [Pacha
Du Polder
(2016) was
3rd
over
3m3f]
9/10
Top 3 last time out. [On
The Fringe,
7th]
9/10
Were aged between 8 and 11. [Salsify
was 7.]
7/10
Started their career in either Point-to-Points or Hunter Chases.
[Exceptions, 2 flat runners and a bumper]
7/10
Were rated within 9lbs of the Adjusted RPR. [Including the last 7]
Additionally
25
of the last 26 winners had won under rules.
41
of the last 43 winners were aged 11 or less.
26
of the last 30 winners started their career in Point to Points or
Hunter Chases.
25
of the last 34 winners had won last time.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
0-0-3
7yo
1-0-16
8yo
2-3-32
9yo
1-6-41
10yo
3-5-47
11yo
3-5-55
12yo
0-2-31
13yo
0-0-8
14yo
0-0-3
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Enda
Bolger (Ire) 2-1-7
Paul
Nicholls 2-1-13
Philip
Rowley 1-2-6
Kelly Morgan 0-2-2
Contenders
Conclusion
There
doesn’t look much value in the market. Minella
Rocco
(2nd
in 2017 Gold Cup) obviously is the class angle here. He was bigger in
the week, and does seem to save his best running for here (won the 4
Miler the year before). He’s perfect on the trends and should go
close. But. He couldn’t ever jump well, probably why he’s gone
Hunter Chasing. The slower pace of that probably suits him, he may
not get that here. Since that Gold Cup his record was 4P4F59PPPP8.
Hazel
Hill
is now12 and was beaten by Minella
Rocco
last time. That’s on the old side, but he still fares well on the
trends and I wouldn’t put you off. Billaway
and Staker
Wallace
are 2 prominent in the market. I’m absolutely certain because of
who is on board. Billaway
beat Staker Wallace last time, giving weight, so I’ve no idea why
the last named is just 6/1. Purely the Jamie Codd factor. Must be.
Both are unproven over the Gold Cup distance and are short enough.
Shantou
Flyer
was 2nd
last year, and could be a year stronger, he’s 2 from 2 this season
and should run well again.. An each way angle could be Caid
Du Berlais,
but he’s had his chances in this and failed to deliver. Don
Poli
(3rd
in a Gold Cup and festival winner) could be the each way. Ran in the
Grand National last year, but might not be the same horse any more,
though he’s won both his races this season. 2 at massive prices, Mr
Mercurial
for trainer/owner/jockey/bottle-washer, will like better ground, he’s
a little old but does stay. Sausalito
Sunrise,
also 12, does have staying form on the course, but is a bit hit and
miss. Stick with the one-two from last year.
Selections
HAZEL
HILL
@ 6/1, Boylesports
SHANTOU
FLYER
@ 15/2, Ladbrokes, Coral, 888bet, Boylesports
JOHNNY
HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL
CHALLENGE
CUP HANDICAP CHASE
2
Miles 62 Yards, Grade 3 Handicap Chase
Overview
The
best race for previous festival and especially previous Grand Annual
form. Croco Bay won as a 12
year old, off for a year @ 66/1. Trends buster. But he had fallen and
finished 5 in 2016/2017. We go again.
Last 10 Winners- average 3.5 stars
2019
*** Croco
Bay
(66/1)
2018
*** Le Prezien (15/2)
2017
*** Rock The World (10/1)
2016
***** Solar Impulse (28/1)
2015
**** Next Sensation (16/1)
2014
*** Savello (16/1)
2013
**** Alderwood (3/1 fav)
2012
**** Bellvano (20/1)
2011
*** Oiseau Du Nuit (40/1)
2010
*** Pigeon Island (16/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had won over 2 miles 1 furlong or more.
9/10
Were aged between 6 and 9 years old. [Croco
Bay
was 12]
9/10
Had raced at a previous festival. [5
in this race, plus another who was a NR]
8/10
Had raced less than 13 times over fences. [Oiseau
Du Nuit (20)
and Croco
Bay
(25)]
8/10
Finished in the top 3 in one of their last 2 completed races.
8/10
Hadn’t won this season. [both exceptions won Novice Chases]
8/10
Were officially rated between 138 and 147. [The last 9 rated 138-150]
8/10
Hadn’t raced more
than
4
times since August.
7/10
Carried less than 11-03. [Exceptions: 11-8, 11-6, 11-5]
Additionally
19
of the last 21 winners had raced less than 13 times over fences.
18
of the last 20 winners were aged 10 or less.
16
of the last 20 winners had carried under 11-01 (incl claimers)
22
of the last 29 winners had raced within 45 days.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-1-6
6yo
1-1-17
7yo
2-10-47
8yo
3-9-61
9yo
3-2-40
10yo
0-2-28
11yo
0-3-14
12yo
1-0-4
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Paul
Nicholls 2-1-16
Nicky
Henderson 1-6-24
Michael
Scudamore 1-1-3
Jessica
Harrington (Ire) 1-1-5
Colin
Tizzard 1-1-10
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 1-0-8
Noel
Meade (Ire) 0-2-2
Arthur
Moore (Ire) 0-2-3
Kerry
Lee 0-2-5
David
Pipe 0-2-7
Venetia
Williams 0-2-13
Alan
King 0-1-9
Contenders
Conclusion
Horses
without a season win (in handicaps) have a great record, hide that
form boys. There’s lots to dislike about every single one of the
buggers. Someone will win. Chosen
Mate
is 2nd
favourite for Elliott/Russell. He’s a novice, which is fine but he
has no festival form and all the previous winners had won over an
extended 2 miles. He’s flopped when doing this. His 11 length 3rd
to Melon
(2nd
Marsh yesterday) may boost the form, but I’m still worried about
the finish. Favourite Greaneteen,
for Paul Nicholls is up and coming, but winning lower level
handicaps, doesn’t prepare you for the manic pace of this race. One
for the future? Maybe next year with festival form in the book.
The
horse I’m picking is the best on trends, but you’d be worried
about the trainers form. 1 win in the last 25 or so this month. Alan
King doesn’t get the horses he used to. He’s just 1 place from 9
runners in the last ten years in this. Lisp
is a good young novice chaser. He ws 5th
in the County Hurdle last season. I’d be more sure if he had a
different trainer. There isn’t too much Grand Annual form this
season, Croco
Bay,
Gino
Trail
and Theinval
have the best. The
last 2 should have won in their youth. Caid
Du Lin
and Marracudja
raced last season, maybe they can do better this time. Us
And Them
was 2nd
in he Arkle last season, but has been awful this year. He could come
alive here again.
Selections
LISP
@ 7/1, general
MARTIN
PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’
HANDICAP
HURDLE
2
Miles 4 Furlongs, 56 Yards, Class 2 Handicap Hurdle
Overview
Usually
the Gigginstown benefit gig. They have Column of Fire and
Assemble. It’s been a good race with some Grade 1 winners of
the future.
Last 10 Winners- average 4.2 stars
2019
** Early Doors (5/1)
2018
**** Blow By Blow (11/1)
2017
***** Champagne Classic (12/1)
2016
**** Ibis Du Rheu (14/1)
2015
***** Killultagh Vic (7/1)
2014
***** Don Poli (12/1)
2013
***** Salubrious (16/1)
2012
**** Attaglance (20/1)
2011
**** Sir Des Champs (9/2 fav)
2010
**** Pause And Clause (14/1)
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Were officially rated between 134 and 145.
10/10
Had achieved an RPR of at least 137.
9/10
Had run within the last 52 days. [Early
Doors,
77 days]
9/10
Carried a weight within 10lbs of the bottom weight. [Early
Doors,
19lbs]
9/10
Were aged either 5 or 6. [Blow
By Blow
was 7]
9/10
Had less than 10 hurdles starts.
[All below 14 starts]
9/10
Were 1st/2nd
season hurdlers. [Exception, Ibis
Du Rheu had
2 late runs in France before moving to Paul Nicholls]
9/10
Had finished in the top 3 in one of their last two starts. [Pause
And Clause was
out of the frame on all 4 runs that season]
Additionally
35
of the 44 horses in the top 4 were 1st/2nd
season
hurdlers.
David
Pipe is 0/19 in the race named after his father. [1 place]
Horses
in headgear are 1/53. [Blow
By Blow
broke the duck last year]
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo
0-1-1
5yo
3-9-65
6yo
6-11-77
7yo
1-6-50
8yo
0-2-25
9yo
0-0-9
10yo
0-0-6
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 3-2-19
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 2-5-17
Paul
Nicholls 2-3-18
Joseph
O’Brien (Ire) 1-1-2
Nicky
Henderson 0-4-25
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-2-7
Philip
Hobbs 0-2-13
Contenders
Conclusion
With
the trends throwing up 5 perfect horses, its probably best to have
that as the short-list. I’m adding in Pileon too, he fails
by 1 the Best RPR stat and has one of the best jockeys in the race in
Ben Jones. The other is Jonjo O’Neill jr on favourite, Front
View, who I’d have preferred
to have won over a bit further than he has (beaten by Five
O’Clock over 2m5 last time).
The
2 Gigginstown
horses, Column
Of Fire
and Assemble
have better form on softer ground, and I think if its good-soft at
the end of the day, we won’t see them at their best. The
list has become shorter.
Pileon’s,
one weakness. No experience of a big field, so far. He could be fine,
but we don’t know.
Escaria
Ten has won over 3 miles on heavy, so he may find this a bit
tough.
We
now have 2 horses, the aforementioned Five O’Clock
and Espoir De Romay.
Both won’t mind the drying conditions and are the picks.
Selections
FIVE
O’CLOCK
@ 17/2, Betfair/PaddyPower, Betfred.
ESPOIR
DE ROMAY
@ 25/1 e/w, Bet365.
