Friday 11 April 2014

Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase 
 Grade 3 - 4m 1/2

One week after the easiest race to find the winner in (or least have a competitive runner) we come up against it tougher Scottish cousin. I blew out massively last year, when a barely 7 year old called Godsmejudge ran away with the contest, I certainly didn't see that one coming. The trends are pretty strong, except that 2 of the last 3 winners have been anti-trend horses.

10 Year Trends
10/10    Ran within the last 57 days, 9 within 42 days. 2 won with a break of 7 and 9 days.
  9/10    Were aged between 8 and 11 years old.
  9/10    Won a chase of 3 miles or more. (8 had won over more than 3 miles)
  9/10    Had run between 3 and 6 times in the season. (exception 7 times, but only 6 since October).
  9/10    Had finished top 4 in a 3m 4f+ chase. (Last 8 top 2)
  9/10    Had won a Class 3 chase or better.
  9/10    Had finished top 2 in either of its last 2 starts. (exception PPP6 in season)
  8/10    Carried less than 10-10 in weight, 2 were well out of the handicap (5 & 26lbs). The last 9 were under 11-04.
  8/10    Were Officially Rated between 124-143. No winners over 148.
  8/10    Had finished in the top6 in a handicap last time, exceptions were Novice chasers, 2 of the last 3..
  8/10    Had achieved an RPR of 137+ in a 3m1f+ chase.
  8/10    Had won a Chase worth £15,000 or more. (Exceptions are Novices)
  8/10    Had raced over fences between 10 and 24 times (2 exceptions were novices with 4 & 6 runs).

 Ages (W-P-R)
  6yo    0-3-10
  7yo    1-8-43
  8yo    3-4-59
  9yo    2-6-47
10yo    2-5-44
11yo    2-2-34
12yo    0-2-13


A very lop-side field for this renewal with Tidal Bay giving 19lbs to the rest of the field, we know he can do the weight and only 10 opponents run from within the handicap proper. He unseated at the Canal Turn last week. If you can trust that he can defy all the negatives above then feel free to back him. I can't have him but I hope he runs well.

Ratings
*
Merry King 20/1
Not likely to stay, although was 5th at a trip this season. Only won once in his career so far.

Pure Faith 66/1
Fails loads of the trends, off the track too long, no 3m win, etc.

Trustan Times 14/1
No chase win past 3 miles (a hurdle) and only 5 Chases (1 in last 2 years, been hurdling) and out of form so  surely won't be winning this.

Ballybough Gorta  80/1
Clearly not good enough. Off the track for a while fails tons of trends.

**
Tidal Bay (16/1)
Class horse, too much weight, too old etc. His unseat at Aintree fails him a few others. Not a real 2 star in my eyes, but can't be backed.

Edmund Kean (20/1)
Novice Chaser who doesn't look like troubling the scorers here.

Adrenalin Flight (40/1)
Not good enough, out of form, no 3m win, etc.

*** 
Sam Winner (11/1)
Paul Nicholls thinks he has a really good chance, he hasn't. What does Nicholls know about winning handicaps. Far too honest for that. Sam has no form at a trip, even if PN thought that the RSA trip was on the short side for him at Cheltenham. 

Mendip Express (11/1)
Off the track a little long, and 'just' the win at 3m3f is also a little short. He just fails a few trends and should probably be a 4 star horse, however 11/1 is a short price for this 3.5 star horse.

Battle Group (40/1)
Can't be trusted on last week's exploits, even if he was sure to get the trip.

Hadrian's Approach (18/1)
2nd season chaser, who looks short of top class. Was 5th in last season's Sandown Gold Cup, so place chances aren't off the agenda.

Green Flag (10/1fav)
Not sure I want to back a 7 year old (he's still 6) without stamina proved. Could be this season's Godmejudge, however he's too short in the market.

Roberto Goldback (20/1)
Too old and surely he'd have the form in the book if he was going to get the trip. Not for me.

McMurrough (40/1)
No 3 mile win, certainly no form at a trip, so one to avoid.

Al Co (40/1) 
Fitness not assure off that long and no form at a trip, so another to avoid.

Lie Forrit (25/1)
No form over a trip. Won 3m3 hurdle last time, but chase form looks over 3 miles max.

Baile Anrai (50/1)
Lacks a 3 mile win, etc. Too many runs this season. Should have won a valuable chase by now.

Sole Witness (50/1)
All form at a lower level, so likely to be outclassed here.

Sir Du Bearn (66/1)
Out the back last weekend in a 3m handicap, still hasn't won at 3 miles, and not exactly in the form of his life.

****
Rigadin De Beauchene (28/1)
Pulled-up in this last year and first run back was very good (won a G3 H'cap) 2 months ago. Loves the mud, so have to imagine this will be a little too fast for him. One to back if it rains tomorrow. 

Godsmejudge (16/1)
Not in form at the moment, but is the holder of this title, so is respected. Handles any ground.

Midnight Appeal (20/1)
No form at a marathon trip and lacks that £15k win. Goes on any ground but must want no more rain to get the trip. Place chance at best.

Yes Tom (14/1)
Similar profile to Midnight Appeal, but doesn't want it to dry out any more. Never run past 3m2f.

Alpha Victor (25/1)
Excellent 2nd in the Midlands National last time, but only 4 chases for this novice and only 1 Class 4 win so far. Place chance.

Fill The Power (33/1)
5th here last year and 7th last time in the Midlands National well back from Alpha Victor (now worse off), can't imagine he'll be beating that one here.

*****
Lackamon (33/1)
Beaten by Lie Forrit last time over hurdles. Advantage is that he won the Durham National this time last year so stamina is assured and looks laid out for this with last 3 runs over too short a trip and 2 hurdles runs. Goes on any ground.

Nuts N Bolts (33/1)
Minor fails with 9 chases (for non-novice) and not top 3 last 2 runs. Really struggled before being pulled-up here last year, and he would like it a bit softer if possible, though G/S is ok. Off the track for nearly 2 months is at my limit of time off too.

Roalco De Farges (12/1)
Strong on trends and my likely winner. 12/1 is the shortest price I'll take. He goes on any ground and
Hobbs/ Johnson partnership a plus. Hobbs also 4 places from 9 runners in this.
 
Mister Marker (25/1)
3rd here last year, and all but one trend (fails the £15k race), as he's not a Novice, that's a bigger worry than it could be. Ground is ok.

Summery Justice (66/1)
Big price. Distant 4th in the Midland National and 10lb out of the handicap here. Same trends profile as  
Mister Marker and ground is fine. Beat Burton Port 2 runs ago and remember he was a 5 star horse for the Grand National (fell, 2nd). I fancy he'll outrun his price but will he make the frame.

Conclusions:
All can be backed for 5 places at the bookies below.

ROALCO DE FARGES
(12/1 boyle, spbet, 11/1 elsewhere)

ALPHA VICTOR (28/1, betvictor, 25/1 at a good bookie)

LACKAMON (33/1, skybet, paddypower, betbright)

SUMMERY JUSTICE (66/1, boyle, Stan James, Betbright)

I can't get on at 12/1 with Roalco De Farges, so may have to give that one a miss. Hopefully the other 3 will give you a good run for your money.

Friday 4 April 2014

Grand National 2014 Runners

John Smith's Grand National Handicap Chase – Grade 2 – 4m 31/2f

Horse                Age-Wgt (st-lbs) Odds Winning Chance

Tidal Bay      13-11-10      14/1       ***
Would be a fairytale winner, I remember him winning the Arkle in 2008. Trouble is he's now 13 and carrying a welter-burden here. However he was a running on third in the Welsh National, under top weight, in December, so likely to be out the back early on here and could find trouble in running. Unseated 3 years ago, but if he weaves past those fallers, he could be running on again at the end.

Long Run       9-11-09      16/1      ***
Gold Cup (2011) and King George (2012) winner but lost his way this season and looks on the downgrade now. Liable to make a sizeable error or two as well. Will be carrying a big weight and this is a mile further than he's ever run before.

Hunt Ball      9-11-07       66/1       **
A true 2 ½ miler, who is too high in the weights and hasn't won a good enough race to justify carrying any money here.

Triolo D'Alene      7-11-06      20/1      ***
He won the Topham Chase over these fences last year (2m6f) and then won the Hennessy this season. He's 7 and too young and carrying too much weight, but could be a potential winner in the future.

Rocky Creek      8-11-05      18/1      *
Bridesmaid this year, losing big races to Triolo D'Alene and The Giant Bolster. Inexperienced and off the track for 10 weeks, and hasn't won a big race, is too high in the weights and no form past 3 miles 2 ½ furlongs. Not this year Rocky.

Quito De La Roque      10-11-01      40/1       ****
Form is pretty poor and doesn't look a National winner, however he passes most of the trends but no form over marathon trips.

Colbert Station      10-11-00      33/1      ***
Unseated last year, still fairly inexperienced, but 9 runs isn't so bad (cut off is 10). But looks like 3 miles is his limit and out of form as he can't jump. Leave alone.

Walkon      9-11-00     50/1      **
Doesn't look a national horse to me, stamina-wise, but decent 2nd to Al Ferof in 2012 Hennessy in a bog, suggests that he could surprise. Pulled up in last years Scottish National, but has form over these fences and maybe the shorter distance is where he should be aimed.

Balthazar King      10-10-13     20/1       *****
Our first perfect horse, won all 3 cross country races at Cheltenham this season. The last was just 24 days ago and has this come too soon. Last year he was 15th without a prep run. Doesn't want the rain.

Wayward Prince      10-10-13      66/1      ****
Looks short of class and has no experience of marathon trips, hard to fancy with no win for 16 months, but passes everything else.

Mr Moonshine      10-10-12      50/1      ***
Yet to win over 3 miles or more and doesn't look good enough to win this.

Teaforthree     10-10-12       8/1fav      *****
Favourite, and with a decent weight, should have a big chance. I'm worried that he didn't last out after the last fence last year and I expect the same to happen again. Will probably get a place.

Across The Bay      10-10-11      50/1      *****
He only fails the lack of a big race win stat (£20k is acceptable). 14th last year but a year older and wiser. Unseated last time and I don't like that in my national horses. Would love some rain.

Double Seven       8-10-11      14/1      ****
A little young (8yo), but his trainer knows how to win the race (Numbersixvalverde in 2006). Fits most of the trends but no form past 3 miles is a big worry. Form on soft, but better on good ground.

Battle Group      9-10-10      50/1       ***
Loves Aintree (won twice in 3 days at last years festival) and loves good ground, however doesn't want to race any more and has to be left alone. No form past 3 miles and off the track since he barely started in December.

Buckers Bridge       8-10-10       66/1      ***
No 3 mile win yet or place form at a trip and no racing on better than good/soft. He's a little young at 8 and hasn't won a big race yet. Avoid.

Lion Na Bearnai      12-10-10      33/1      *****
12 year old. Shock winner of the Irish National in 2012 but pulled-up in the Scottish version last April. Passes everything else and could be a player in the mud but more miss than hit even when he was younger.

Prince De Beauchene      11-10-10      20/1     ***
Another 3 miler who is out of form, been off the track for 79 days now.

Monbeg Dude      9-10-09       12/1      *****
Winner of the 2012 Welsh National and had some decent results in the last 2 years, but put in his place by Night In Milan in the Grimthorpe Chase last time. My worry is he's a hold-up horse who doesn't jump great, so will need to get into a good rhythm early and avoid some fallers on the way. If he does that he'll be creeping closer and closer by the 2nd last. Loves any ground.

Big Shu      9-10-08       25/1      *****
3rd in the Cross County at Cheltenham (won in 2013). 2 seasonal runs aren't ideal, but passes everything else. He'll have a new jockey for this race which isn't ideal. No form on faster ground so rain please.

Burton Port      10-10-08      20/1       *****
Not the best 5 star horse that others are, and little experience at marathon trips. Can't see him placing, but....

Our Father      8-10-08      66/1      **
An '8' year old with only 6 Chase starts. He's actually not yet reached his 8th birthday. Too inexperienced on many counts and out of form on ground he's unproven on.

Mountainous        9-10-07      40/1  *****
Won the Welsh National. Not worried about 9 chase starts or that he's been off for 63 days. Would love the rain to come but difficult for a horse to win 2 nationals in a season.

The Rainbow Hunter       10-10-07      33/1      ****
Winner of the Skybet Chase last time. That was 70 days ago, which is a little long away. I always thought he'd win a decent staying handicap but this could be a step too far. Unseated last year after only 8 fences.

Vintage Star      8-10-07      50/1      ****
Youngster (not yet 8yo) who hasn't too much experience at a trip although he was a creditable 6th in the Welsh National. Fell last time at Cheltenham, and currently has won a valuable chase yet.

Chance Du Roy      10-10-06      33/1       ****
9th in last years Topham after a creditable 3rd the year before, so has experience of these fences. Little experience past 3 miles, but has place chances. Goes on any ground, but you'd imagine the faster the better here.

Hawkes Point      9-10-06       40/1       ***
Inexperienced (7 chases) but excellent place in the Welsh National. Hasn't won that decent Chase yet but all his form in on bottomless ground. How about next year?

Kruzhlinin      7-10-06      100/1      ***
Too young for this, no winning experience past 3 miles nor a win at a decent level. And little experience of big fields. No chance.

Pineau De Re      11-10-06      20/1     ****
Only think he really fails is the lack of a big chase win. Has a chance and goes on any ground.

Golan Way      10-10-05     66/1     ****
Another monkey, who you couldn't trust with stolen money to actually start, but has been better this season. Theoretically only 1 run in 16 months (fell after 2, other) and not won at a good enough level yet, surely he can't win.

Twirling Magnet     8-10-05     100/1      ****
Hasn't won at the required level yet and has plenty of time as he's just 8. Little form past the bare 3 miles either.

Vesper Bell     8-10-05     66/1      **
Decent staying form on heavy ground in Ireland, but this almost 8 year old (born 17th Apr) is a little inexperienced and has been off the track for 72 days now. No recent form with only finish a poor 9th last time and no form on ground faster than soft..
.
The Package       11-10-04       20/1      ****
Just 1 completion in 16 months (good 3rd at Cheltenham). Unseated 2 years ago, place chance at best here. Cheltenham form franked today with the 1st and 2nd both winning.

Raz De Maree     9-10-03      50/1       *****
Ran only 19 days ago. Won a Cork National in 2012, but all form in testing conditions, difficult to assess and his 3rd last time was in a crappy 5 runner race, form P0P before that suggest he may be out classed here.

Rose Of The Moon      9-10-03     50/1     **
Inexperienced chaser who hasn't done too much so far. Poor run in the Becher Chase, here and been off for 74 days now. Not this year.

Shakalakaboomboom     10-10-03      33/1     ***
Great run 2 years ago, before running out of puff in the home turn. Still hasn't won that big chase or any decent form over a marathon trip, and no form at all this year. He's been trained for the race and is 2 years older and wiser this time around or is that 2 years slower. Can't imagine rain will help his cause.

Alvarado     9-10-02     33/1     *****
Can you forgive the fact that he's been off for 3 months when pulled up? If you can he has a good chance. Won a good stayers handicap in the Autumn and has form on all grounds although good would probably be better.

Last Time D'Albain      10-10-02     50/1     *
Has course experience after a 3rd in last years Topham, but never run past 2m6f before!! Was staying on but difficult to imagine another 2 miles from him. Fails tons of the trends, and only ran 2 weeks ago. Ignore

One In A Milan     9-10-02     66/1      **
Inexperienced chaser with no winning form passed 3 miles basically not good enough and out of form.

Swing Bill      13-10-1      80/1      **
An excellent 6th last year, but he's now 13 and he wont be winning this year. Still fails the Valuable chase stat, and a place at 3 ½ miles and isn't any real form, however was 5th over the fences in the Becher Chase last December.


Conclusions:
This looks like 2 nationals in one. One set of runners wants the rain to stay away and the ground to be good/soft (good in places) and the other set wants plenty of rain and it to be soft to see their true running, at the moment it is the former so that's where we'll start.

Perfect Horses:
Teaforthree (8/1fav) is a worthy favourite, but is far too short now. I'm a big worried that he won't truly stay like last year and he'll finish 3rd or 4th. Monbeg Dude (12/1) is a bit in and out and with Zara Phillips schooling him he'll probably start favourite. My main worry is that he'll have to
negotiate 39 horses to win and that's IF he does jump well, no value in the price. Balthazar King (20/1) doesn't want any rain to get into the ground, not too much anyway, he won well at Chetlenham and as long as that didn't take too much out of him he should run a good race and a decent price.

Others to consider:
Across The Bay (50/1) has a good chance if it rains (0/10 on G/S or faster), blundered last time but at 50/1 he's value. Ran well until 4 out last year when blundering then fading.
Lion Na Bearnai (33/1) is a little old for my liking and is more miss than hit nowadays.
Big Shu (25/1) lacks experience of the fences, but will get the trip. In good form just behind Balthazar King, a little rain welcome.
Burton Port (20/1) doesn't look a true National horse to me, but he was just short of top quality once.
Mountainous (40/1) Hard to see him doing 2 Nationals in a season. He needs the rain and is a little inexperienced, but the Welsh National was a shock too.
Chance Du Roy (33/1) Won over the fences in December, this could be a little too far but has a chance on good ground.
Raz De Maree (50/1) Badly out of form, so have to pass on him even if he fits the trends.
Alvarado (40/1) Off the track a little too long for my liking but will get the trip on good ground.

Other thoughts:
I'd love Tidal Bay (14/1) and Long Run (14/1) to run well, don't think they'll win but stranger things have happened and these are 2 classy stalwarts. Tidal Bay could well be running on at the end and doesn't care about the ground. Long Run could be anything, no form over trip or fences but on his day was a Gold Cup and King George winner. Hawkes Point (40/1) shouldn't really be considered, but if it was a bog on saturday, he'd love it and he couldn't be ruled out.

Good (G/S in places) Grand National
BALTHAZAR KING (20/1)
CHANCE DU ROY (33/1)
ALVARADO (40/1, William Hill, betbright, 33/1 generally available)

Soft Grand National
ACROSS THE BAY (50/1)
BIG SHU (25/1)
MOUNTAINOUS (40/1)
HAWKES POINT (40/1)

The rain is forecast from 10am tomorrow until the evening, so I expect it to be a right old slog and the soft horses are favoured, however the write-up is written on the current Good-Soft ground.

So that's it, I hope we have a good run for our money, lets hope for an exciting, but safe Grand national and this year I want the forecast (1st and 3rd last year)


Offers:
www.bet365.com not only give you a free bet if you get the winner (their 4/1+ tv offer), but they are giving half your stake back on any each-way bets (until noon on saturday up to £125 total). This is for existing customers only.
They also will be going 5 places. Everyone are 5 places (except totesport, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill – 4 places)
www.betvictor.com (boo!!!) offer 6 places as do Betfred and newbies www.betbright.com.
Totepsort & Betfred are the same company btw – No I don't get the disparity either.

Make sure you take a price on the high street, Paddy Power go 5 places, but their odds aren't as good, swings and roundabouts and all that.

Tuesday 1 April 2014

Grand National 2014 - Trends Analysed


Grand National Analysis

We had the winner last year, he got a mention in dispatches, even if he wasn't a 5 star. AURORAS ENCORE has since been retired through injury. A lot has been said about the new shaped fences and how the better horses will show their class. This didn't happen last year. The top 12 horses to finish all carried 11-03 or less (10 carried under 11 stone). So weight is still a big factor in this race.

The following trends are strong and should be adhered to.

Aged 8-12
No horse outside of this age range has won a Grand National since 1940 when Bogskar (aged 7) took the honours. The last horse older than 12 was Sergeant Murphy (13yo) who won in 1923. Horses younger than 7 are now prevented from competing, they couldn't win anyway and need protecting from over-enthusiastic trainers and owners.

The last 2 winners were 11, and the last 9 winners were all aged between 9 and 11 years old. We can't rule out the 8 and 12 year olds, but they can't afford to miss too many trends.

Only one 8 year-old has won the race since 1992, Bindaree, in 2002.
Amberleigh House won well as a 12 year old in 2004, the only one that old since 1995.

10 Year Trends (won-placed-runners)
aged 6/7  0-0-28
aged 8     0-7-71
aged 9     3-11-98
aged 10   4-5-99
aged 11   2-6-72
aged 12   1-1-32
aged 13+ 0-0-7

No horse outside the 8-12 age range has even placed in 10 years from 35 runners.


Winning form over at least 3 miles
Not since Gay Trip won the race in 1970 has the winner previously not won a race over at least 3 miles. It seems logical that if you haven't won a race at 3 miles or more, you won't win one at 4m 31/2f).

To go a bit further, all of the previous 10 winners had won over 3 miles, 1 furlong and 9 of the last 10 winners had finished top 3 in a 3½ mile+  Chase, with Neptune Collonges (the exception) winning a 3¼ m Chase.

Last year the first 5 home has finished in the top 4 in a 'National' ie over 3m4f.


Carrying less than 11st 6lbs
The best horse in the race will carry the biggest weight, but they don't often win the Grand National. It's a huge burden to lump nearly 12 stone around 41/2 miles and it takes it toll.

Last year, only 1 horse got within 50 lengths on the winner that carried more than 11 stone.

The bottom weights are back to near 10 stone and I still think this is a good stat to adhere to. I'm still tempted to say that 11 stone is the cut-off, but I'm only ruling out horses above that line if they've failed other trends. A good line to take is to rule out horses that carry more than 14lbs more than the bottom weight.

Grand National hero Red Rum (twice) was the last horse previous to Neptune Collonges horse to carry more than 11-05 in the National and win and before that Sundew in 1957.


Officially Rated between 136-155
This trend will rule out many of the horses that the previous one does, but also catches out those really crap horses that used to run at the bottom of the handicap but now rarely get in the race, and can be used to dump these horses at the first declaration stage. Neptune Collonges was rated 157, but this stat dumps the bottom weights this time. This year there are unlikely to be any horses rated this low.


Must have run within the previous 56 days
Was 49 days, but Neptune Collonges was 7 days longer and leeway can be given. I don't want anything with more than 70 days. I want race fit horses.
Rough Quest had a break of only 16 days in 1996.
Horses need to be race fit to win this and horses start losing their edge after a long break, either enforced or otherwise. We want a horse that is ready to race and ready to win.


Had finished in the first 3 in one of his last 3 starts.
Every horse needs to be in some sort of form, not necessarily winning form as we don't want that pesky handicapper finding us out do we. Even the hopelessly out of form 100/1 shot, Mon Mome, in 2009, managed a 2nd in the January of that year. Of course Auroras Encore wasn't placed in his previous 7 races to throw that out of the window but he'd run well in some decent Graded races. His last form was the previous April with a quality 2nd in the Scottish National.


Have run in at least 9 Chases
Horses need good jumping experience to win the Grand National. Every winner since Miinnehoma (9 Chase races) in 1994 has run in at least 10 Chases. You may want to give those with 9 races under their belt, like Colbert Station and Mountainous, the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't want to be affording Rocky Creek (7) the same.


Have won a chase worth at least £29,000
You still need to be classy enough to win the National. Bad horses still don't win. Every winner in the last 10 years has won a Chase worth at least this amount of money. The horses at the lower end of the handicap will need to be scrutinised for this trend. Horses that have won a £17k-£28k Chase may be given a little leeway as Bindaree (2002) has just dropped off the end


Have raced between 3 and 6 times in the season
Missed prep races, setbacks in training, bad planning and over-raced horses will find it tough to win the Grand National. Miinnehoma had only 2 races in the 1993-94 season before his win. Every winner since has had 4-6 runs, until Ballabriggs (with 3) broke that, but was so strong on all the other trends he was a must bet.


Conclusion:
Winning Profile
Aged 8-12
Won over more than 3 miles
Top 3 finish in a 3¼ mile Chase
Carrying less than 11-07
OR between 136-157
Last run between 20-56 days ago
9+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £17k to the winner
Between 3-6 runs that season

If you want to refine it further

Perfect Profile
Aged 9 to 11
Won a 3m1f Chase
Top 3 in a 3m4f+ Chase
Carrying less than 11-02
Last run between 20-56 days ago
10+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £29k to the winner
Between 4-6 runs that season

Good Luck