With all the rain around some of the horses I'd have backed on better ground can run and win (or lose) now its a bit wetter.

The only value bet I'm having is on Rimsky (2.45 Newbury). Rimsky's problem is he doesn't win very often. He hasn't won for over 2 years, but he's been slogging it out over these longer distances in all sorts of ground and looks a fair each way bet at 16/1 for a place.

First Day of the "Flat Season" *boo*

With just Aintree to come, the end of the season is nearly upon us, and then the boring Flat season starts. Having had a pretty poor week since saturday (thursdays ran poorly and I won't blame the ground this time), I'm thinking of keeping my powder dry until then. And when Aintree is out of the way, staying away some more. The old adage about the stock market was "Sell in May and go away, come back in September", well I won't go to those extremes, but May is usually a proper shit month with dodgy summer jumps horses out and the start of the flat season with horses you have no idea are fit or not. It may be a month for laying short-priced favourites, especially 2-3yos, but we'll see.

3.10 Lincoln Handicap
This is the Blue Riband event and heralds the start of  the new yawn.. sorry... dawn. Its a 1m handicap over Doncaster's straight mile. The 2.00 Spring Mile, for horses who couldn't get into this race, could have a huge bearing over the draw bias, so watch this race for clues.

The race was ran at Redcar (2006) and Newcastle (2007) while Doncaster was being redeveloped.

The 10 year trends are fairly strong clues to the winner.

Aged 4-6 (10/10)
Actually, being 4-5 yo is stronger as they have won 8/10, but we'll keep 6yo in for now.
Out: Advanced (7) and Collateral Damage (7).

Carrying 9st or less (9/10)
Weight is deinitely an issue with only 1 winner lumping more than 9st. Extraterrestrial's jockey carries a 7lb claim, so he is ok.
Out: Mia's Boy, Penitent (fav), Dubai's Touch, Vitznau, Smokey Oakey

A win over 1 mile (9/10)
Obviously if you haven't won over a mile, its gonna be hard to win this over a mile. The only hope you may have is if you are an unexposed horse upping trip. However we will remove those because we are nasty buggers. I will leave in those who have won at more than 1m but not 1m.
Out: Harrison George, Ishetoo, Prime Exhibit.
Albaqaa has won over 9f and 10f and Full Toss has wins between 9-11f.

Rule out exposed horses (8/10)
You want up and coming horses not those in the grip of the handicapper. Horses with 15 or fewer runs have won 8/10 renewals.
Out: Albaqaa (22), Lang Shining (18) Full Toss (23), Huzzah (24), Kaolak (19), Mister Hardy (33)

Horse with ticks in all the boxes
4/4 Mull Of Killough (11/1), Tiger Reigns (12/1), Viva Vettori (18/1) and Reve De Nuit (80/1)
Also
3/4 Extraterrestrial, Lang Shining, Huzzah, Kaolak, Mister Hardy, Prime Exhibit

The ground is soft, and of the 10 horses above,

Mull Of Killough (0) Never run on worse than Good ground.
Reve De Nuit (0) All 4 runs have been on the All Weather
Lang Shining (1/1) Won a 17 runner affair at Newbury in 2008. His only run on soft.
Tiger Reigns (2/2) Won both runs on soft however Michael Dods thinks this has come 2 weeks too soon.
Huzzah (0/3)
Kaolak (0/1)
Mister Hardy (1/4)
Viva Vettori (0/1) Great AW form, but unproven on soft. Only run was 3rd on debut @ 40/1
Prime Exhibit (0/2)

If you want to ignore the trends, Collateral Damage (16/1) has 5 wins and 3 places from 10 runs on soft.

If I'm going to go for one, it's going to be Viva Vettori, however I'd like to know what happens at 2pm and I'll be in the pub by then.

Dodgy tips up next..

Grand National Trends - Weight and Official Rating

"Weight stops trains" apparently, I don't necessarily agree.... however in the Grand National It is almost probably true. The best horses carry the most weight and are the classiest horses in the race, but they carry too much to win and having to lug between 12-22 lbs more than the horses at the bottom of the handicap over 4m4f is going to take its toll....

Red Rum won the race 3 times and was 2nd on the other 2 occasions. He's the ony horse since 1957 to carry more than 11st 5lbs and win the race. Only 1 horse (Hedgehunter, 11-01) has won carrying more than 11st since Corbiere (11-03) in 1983.

There is now more of a problem. Until recently the National didn't attract the quality of horses it does now, 100+ entries are the norm now. Previously there would be fewer entries and horses would get in at 10 stone and plenty would run from "out of the handicap" (ie rated to carry less than the minimum weight of 10 stone) (Bobbyjo, 1999 and Lord Gyllene, 1997 won this way). Now the bottom weight will carry about 10-07, 10-06 or so and the difference between top and bottom weights is around 5-6lbs closer. We now have to raise the weights that the winner could possibly carry by the same 5-6lbs. Thankfully this ties in well with the Official Rating this year.

The winners of the Grand National have all been within the OR of 135-153 since 1989 (bar 1). Now that is a fairly huge range but it rules out the good and crap horses. Royal Athlete won off 155, that was pretty amazing as he only carried 10-06, so he was rated 18lbs less than the top weight, Master Oats (OR 173). This years race has Madison Du Berlais (11-10, OR 158) and Notre Pere (11-10, OR 158) and 4 other horses carrying more than 11-05 and happily their OR is also 154+. Almost perfect. The 'crap' horses won't get in but we still need to get rid of them.

Out
Carrying more than 11-05 (OR of 154+) (6 horses)
Madison Du Berlais, Notre Pere, Mon Mome, Black Apalachi, Joe Lively, Vic Venturi

Official Rating less than 135 (10 horses)
King's Advocate, Anothercoppercoast, Merigo, Chiaro, According To John, Lorum Leader, Over The Creek, Cossack Dancer, Wee Robbie, Offaly

If Madison Du Berlais and Notre Pere both don't run, Mon Mome will become the new top weight and carry 11-10, and every horse will move up 3lbs in weight and we may have to revisit this.

Ideally you should still be looking at horses carrying 11st or less in the race but we don't want to rule out a possibly winner

46 horses remain. Next I think we'll try to knock out horses who haven't won over 3 miles. After all if you haven't won at 3 miles or more, how can you win at 4m4f.

Value bet

Ayr 2.10

Odds-on favourite Meridiam City looks nailed on for this, however he's too short at 4/9. Interesting each-way steal is Flaming Thistle, who has, on paper, had 2 disappointing runs. However he improved from his debut run with a decent 6th, last time and the good ground will suit him better. Flaming Thistle is available at 14/1 from bet365, hopefully you can get some too.

Grand National Trends - Age and Experience

The Grand National is just over 2 weeks away and now is the time to whittle the 75 (current) entries down to something more managable like 5. I'm sure this is written every year, but the GN is the most unique race in the world. Its a handicap run over the extremes of 4m4f and 30 pretty tough fences with a probable field of 40 runners. You need luck, skill and a horse with a good engine, but the same things seem to happen year by year. Today we are going to take out horses whose proflie hasn't won for a pretty long time.

List of entries:

Age
The Grand National has been run since 1840 and in this time the age of the winning horses has varied between 5 and 15. However 5yo aren't allowed to run any more and now that the race is hugely competative, no horse younger than 8 has won since 1940 when Bogskar triumphed. Sergeant Murphy (aged 13) won the race in 1923. Every winner in the last 69 years has been aged between 8-12.

In the last 10 years there have been 39 horses aged 6-7 & 13+ and none have placed, not one. Young horses haven't built up the required stamina to win this race, older horses have the stamina, but are on the downgrade and aren't fast enough to compete at the top end. In fact 12yo horses have a poor record as well, just 1 win and 1 place from 29 runners. Amberleigh House (12) won in 2004, but he was trained by Ginger McCain (Red Rum's trainer) and had a much better profile than many 12yo's. I will keep in 12yo but they should generally be opposed.

The best ages for a winner is 9 and 10, having won 11 of the last 14 races. This year we can scratch out a number of horses, including Cheltenham Gold Cup flop and former favourite, Tricky Trickster.

Out (9 horses)
6yo Galant Nuit
7yo Tricky Trickster, Deutschland, Piraya, The Package, Palypso De Creek, Belon Gale, Pomme Tiepy
13yo Silver Birch (2007 winner)

Experience
Horses that win the Grand National have to have experience of jumping fences. Obviously horses that are younger won't have that experience, if you think that Tricky Trickster has raced only 6 times over fences, you'll know what a strange over-hyped favourite he was for this race.

Miinnehoma (1994) won the Grand National on his 10th chase start. Even that is quite unusual, since then, the minimum amount has been 10, but for this case I will keep in the 9s just in case the horses run again in the next 2 weeks.

Out (4 horses)
Horses with less than 9 chase starts:
Backstage (8), Dooneys Gate (6), Whinestone Boy (6), Treacle (8). We've already lost Tricky Trickster (6), Deutchland (8), The Package (8), Galent Nuit (8) and Belon Gale (7), but this is double bubble if you like.

Horses with 9 chase starts:
Ballyfitz, Equus Maximus, Abbeybraney, Offaly.
These can be considered for removal and hopefully we'll find other trends to remove them later.

There is no upper limit to the amount of races a horse has, although they'll generally be older and more exposed and probably in the handicapper's grip. Monty's Pass (41) and Amberleigh House (34) have to most in the last 20 years.

62 horses left, next time, we'll address the weight trend.

Sweating out a hangover

No bets today....


Stuck at work with a couple of placepots as my only source of entertainment, anyone got a cure for too much Guinness and Champers.

Cheltenham Aftermath

I hope you had a good day yesterday with Barazan (14/1, 2nd) and Bertie's Dream winning @ 33/1. Carruthers got done on the line by Mon Mome , so we only got 1 bet in (instead of all 3).

I hope you can forgive the spelling mistakes as I had to put out the blog asap  Had a look tomorrow and can fancy L'Aventure @ 25/1 to win the Midands National. I believe I backed Russian Trigger to win last years. L'Aventure is a pain in the arse, but I know she can win, whether it's this race is debatable. Her price is too big, but that's not a guarantee..

I'd rather keep my powder dry , but value is value...

Cheltenham Day Four

Cheltenham Day Four

The final day and an ok day yeterday, Alberta's Run winning @ 14/1 (was 20/1) and a placed horse in every race.

Managesd to have a computer crash this morning so am well behind. Am just going to put up the best trends horses and my selections.

1.30  JCB Triumph Hurdle

Trends:

10/10 Last run between 19-55 days

10-10 Between 2-6 run

  9/10 Won LTO

  9/10 Won at least half of hurdle runs

  9/10 By a Group 1 flat winning sire

  8/10 RPR of at least 123

6/6 Advisor, (13/2) Alavain (9/2), Carlito Brigante (4/1f)

5/6 Olofi (12/1) , Pitoni (16/1), Soldatino (11/2), Blue Nymph (66/1)

Pricewise has tipped Olofi (20/1 into 12/1) I still want to be with him but he offers no value. Think he will steam into about 9/1. A case can easily be made for all three of the trend horses and I think they will all be up there. I'm going to back a huge priced horse to break them up. Its Barizan (28/1). He's got good form at this level, at Cheltenham and is good on all ground.

Selections:

E/W: Barizan @ 28/1 (general)

2.05 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

Trends:

9/10 4-16 Hurdle runs

9/10 OR of 128-144

9/10 Carrying less than 11-02

9-10 Ran less than 36 days ago

9/10 Not run at a previous festival

9/10 SP shorter than 20/1

Also: 17/30 placed horses were 25/1 or bigger

Unfortunatly these trends took too much time to do, so I've skipped them. You should avoid the top 4 on the racecard as they are carrying too much weight. The Racing Post say that Bellvano (10/1), Tawaagg (12/1), Eradicate (12/1), Tito Bustillo and Inventor (25/1) have strong trends, with Tito Bustillo (9/1fav) their call.

I've followed Oldrik for the last 2 runs where he was 5th (placed with bet365) and 2nd. He doesn't win too much now and is 11/1 so not an e/w price for me. Very competative market, 7 horses 12/1 or shorter, big e/w selections aplenty. Marodima (50/1) carries too much weight but really shouldn't be the price he is. I'd hope for a place, but can't guarantee a good run. Pasha Bere (50/1) carries no weight and is ultra-consistent, is another big price and Keki Buku (40/1) is a much better horse than this price, but has disappointed at Cheltenham in his 3 runs. Basically there may well be a big priced winner here but bets should be at the minimum.

Selections:

Win:  Oldrik @ 11/1 (bet365) [e/w if 12/1+]

E/W:  Keki Buku @ 40/1

E/W: Pasha Bere  @ 50/1

Poss E/W: Marodima @ 50/1 (general)

2.40  Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

(registered as The Spa Novices' Hurdle)

Trends:

5/5 RPR of 139 or more

5/5 2m5f+ win

5/5 At least 3 run over hurdles

5/5 Was in the top 2 LTO in a Graded Hurdle

4/5 Aged 6-7

Only 5 runnings of this, so trents not too strong, but a few have 5/5

Enterprise Park (9/1), Restless Harry (17/2), Shinrock Paddy (9/1), Tell Massini (9/2fav), Wayward Prince (66/1), Premier Victory (28/1)

A good race here, I've fancied Restless Harry for this for ages but Tell Massini and Fionnegas are big dangers. Cappa Bleu won the Foxhunter's last year, but hasn't shown the same form this year. One horse I'm amazed is as big as 50/1 is Berties Dream. I think he's done nothing much wrong to deserve such a big price, you never know. Another in decent form is Silver Kate who definitely gets the trip. Quel Esprit fell on wednesday and is obviously fine after that, but I though his real chance was then and not now.

Selections:

Win: Restless Harry @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes, Bet365, VCbet)

E/W: Silver Kate @ 20/1 (general)

E/W: Berties Dream @ 50/1 (Ladbrokes, Bet365, VCbet)

3.20 Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase

Sod the trends, if you are interested, Kauto Star, Denman, Cooldine and Tricky Trickster are the best.

Kauto Star should win, I did think that Carruthers (66/1) is a big price but you're only aiming at 1 place at best, and he should be swamped by others coming round the bend. However he's 12/1 to win in the w/o big 2 market, and 33/1 w/o Kauto Star. This is a better e/w sleection

WIn: Kauto Star @ 8/11f

E/W w/o Big 2: Carruthers @ 14/1 (Sportingbet)

E/W w/o Kauto Star; Carruthers @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.00  Christie's Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup

Trends:

10/10 Won at 3m or more

  9/10 RPR of 128 or more

  9/10 Last run within 12-33 days

  8/10 Aged 10 or less

5/5 Southwestern (33/1), Turthen (16/1) and Chestnut Annie (28/1)

4/5 Amicelli (33/1), Roulez Cool (4/1fav)

Roulez Cool (4/1fav) is probably a worth favourite, he's to short to back but should be in your placepots. I really fancy Chestnut Annie (28/1) in this, she could spring a surprise at a huge price. Robber's Glen (25/1), Turthen (16/1) and Trust Fund (8/1) are others to consider

Selections:

E/W: Chestnut Annie @ 28/1 (bet365)

E/W: Robber's Glenn @ 25/1 (Bluesq, Sportingbet)

E/W: Turthen @ 16/1 (general)

4.40  Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey's Handicap Hurdle

The first race was last year, so no trends. I saw Clova Island  win at Kempton last month and am happy that he can carry that form into this race. Fairyland is Pricewised today and is a shame as he was backable at that price, now I'm not so sure. Not value, but still an each way price. Balthazar King has decent statsin all the right areas. How dodgepot Ashkazar is favourite is beyond me, gone backwards in the last 2 seasons.

Selections: (back them all with bet365, giving 5 places, best prices and guaranteed prices)

E/W: Clove Island @ 16/1

E/W: Fairyland @ 16/1

E/W: Balthazar King @ 20/1

5.15  Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup Handicap

Trends:

9/10 OR between 130-143

9/10 Maximum of 12 chase runs

9/10 Carrying less than 10-12

9/10 No older than 9

8/10 No more than 4 runs since August

Also the winner is usually less than 9/1 SP, but as we have 10/1 co-favourites at the moment, that is up in the air, might be worth looking for horses than are being backed.

5/5 You're The Top (8/1fav), Fighting Chance (12/1), Safari Journey (16/1)

4/5 Nomechecki (25/1), Pepsyrock (20/1), Tramantano (66/1), Beggar's Cap (16/1), Nikola (40/1)

Need to pick a lower weight. Hard to see Free World winning as he can't even win in small fields, unless he needs lots of horses around him. You're The Top looks a wortyh favourite. I really can't find a decent bet here, and am happy to pass over the get out stakes.

Selections:

No bet (officially)

That's it, the end of a great meeting for me, and the bookies but not for those favourite backers and Racing Post readers..... good, remember the only way to beat the bookies is to back when the odds are in your favour.

all the best

VH

Cheltenham Day Three

Cheltenham Day Three

Big Buck's above,he may lose. Dunguib and Master Minded were previous incumbents of the poisoned chalice. Personally I don't think he can, whereas the others were too short.

Not a great day for the blog yesterday. 1 winner. I had a good day as I was backing lots of other stuff. I try to only put the best bets up here rather than back the 3-4 horses e/w that I actually do. This isn't working. Cue Card won for me yesterday, a 4yo busted the bumper trend and it was not Irish either. I had the exacta up with Al Ferof, paid almost double the CSF @ £619.50 (compared to £334). I always find the CSF only pays better if the favourite is in the frame (esp the the winner) but the exacta pays hugely if outsiders are involved. Anyway onwards and upwards.

1.30  Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase

Trends:
Only 5 runnings here so trends are there to be broken.

5/5 OR of 123-135 (4 were 133-135)

5/5 Carrying less than 10-13

5/5 Top 2 LTO

5/5 Top 4 in all completed jump starts

5/5 Only 1 win over jumps (!!)

4/5 Won over 2m4f or further

This is a problem race, firstly the field is skewed so that only 2 horses are rated at 135 or less and both of these are carrying less than 10-13. So basically this looks pretty competative and its almost worth ignoring.

Kings Forest (20/1) (bottom weight) has all 6, but we need to delve a bit further.

Tanks For That (25/1) (2nd botom weight) has 5/6.

Nicanor and The Midnight Club has 4/6 and this is more like it. but both aren't market leaders. Copper Bleu would have 4 if you want to count his PTP win at 2m4f+. The rest are 2s and 3s. Rivaliste (7/1fav) has only 2 which is probably not good.

Of the maret principles, Hey Big Spender (10/1) could be the one to follow here. Although pretty high in the weights, he had good Cheltenham form and has won twice at this distance. A longer price could be The Midnight Club (22/1) who could fight it out for a place in this competative event.  One leftfield selection that I'll probably will back is Door Boy @ 33/1 who could run a big race.

Win: Hey Big Spender @ 10/1 (general)

E/W: The Midnight Club @ 22/1 (Stan James), Door Boy @ 33/1 (Stan James)

2.05  Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle

Trends:

10/10 Aged 6  to 9

9/10 Class 3 win or higher

9/10 Last raced between 20-42 days.

9/10 Carrying less than 11-03

8/10 A win at 2m4f-2m6f

8/10 Between 6-15 hurdle runs

Looking to avoid those top weights, distance wins at a good class is imperative as is hurdling experience. Not worried about the Days Since Raced as that could be more luck than judgement.

5/6 South O' The Border (40/1), Chamirey (33/1), Cross Kennon (25/1), Silk Affair (33/1), Special Occasion (100/1)

Also Alfie Sherrin (7/2fav) and Fredo (20/1) (both won at 2m7f) and Palypso De Creek (33/1) (decent win in France) can also be included. However Alfie Sherrin looks too inexperienced for this and Fredo is exposed.

As you can see from the prices, the trends analysis point to a big priced winner.

Looking for a big price here, plumping for Palypso De Creek. I'll also be hving a closer look at Don't Push It who's price it too also big for this. He had a touch of class about him when he feels like it. Chamirey is unproven on the ground and might be worth looking at for market moves.

E/W Palypso De Creek @ 33/1 (Lad, Bet365, VCbet, Spodds); Don't Push It @ 28/1 (Lad, Bet365, VCbet, Spodds) ; Chamirey @ 33/1 (Lad, VCbet, Bet365)

2.40  Ryanair Chase

(Registered as the Festival Trophy Chase)

Trends:

Another new race with only 5 years of trends. They are very very strong though and I expect the winner to be one of them.

5/5  RPR of 158+. Every horse passes this one

5/5 OR of 152+ . Again, every horse passes.

5/5 Has won at Cheltenham

5/5 Won or placed in a PaddyPower Gold Cup (in Nov) or a Boylesports Gold Cup (in Dec)

5/5 From the top 3 in the betting

5/5 4 or fewer runs since October. All pass this stat.

The only horses in the field that have placed in either of the Gold Cups are also the top 3 in the betting, Poquelin 7/2fav, Tranquil Sea (9/2) and Barbers Shop (6/1). Barbers Shop hasn't won at Cheltenham, so that leaves the other two.

Win: Poquelin  @ 3/1 (general); Barber's Shop @ 6/1 (general)

As an afterthought, I'm backing Alberta's Run @ 16/1

3.20  Ladbrokes World Hurdle

Trends:

10/10 Top 2 LTO

10/10 No more than 4 runs since August

  9/10 Aged 6-8

  9/10 In the Top 2 in all hurdles this season

  9/10 8-20 hurdle runs

  9/10 Won a Graded hurdle

  8/10 Pre-race RPR of 164+

7/7 Big Buck's 8/11fav

6/7 Tidal Bay (15/2), Karabak (9/1)

Not difficult that the top3 in the betting are strongest in the trends

E/W: Time For Rupert @ 20/1 is the value, but I'd probably watch it.

4.00  Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase

Trends:

10/10 Won a Class 3 or better

  9/10 Won over 2m3f-2m5f

  9/10 Raced within 41 days

  9/10 Was Top 5 LTO

  9/10 Raced over fences between 4-15 times

  8/10 Carrying 11st or less

  8/10 Aged younger than 10

  8/10 Raced at a previous Cheltenham Festival

Horse with all 8 trends are

8/8 Sunnyhill Boy (10/1) and My Petra (20/1)

7/7 Song Of Songs (9/1), Made In Taipan (33/1),  Martys Mission (33/1), Great Endeavour (25/1), Victorias Groom (50/1)

Song Of Songs hasn't won at the required distance which is a huge worry. Made In Taipan is carrying too much weight and Martys Misson hasn't got festival experience.

I need value in this and I'm not having any win bets. Short and sweet, but I'm going for my perennial favourite Private Be.... Hew doesn't win much but he's in the form of his life and is too big a price. Other horses of interest are Victorias Groom and From  Dawn To Dusk. Purely form a trends perspective My Petra  could do the business, but I have doubts.

E;:W Private Be @ 25/1 (general), Victorias Groom @ 33/1 (general), From Dawn To Dusk @ 25/1 (general)

4.40  Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup

Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders)

Trends: 

10/10 Rated within 8lbs of the RPR Top-rated

10/10 Aged 7-10

  9/10 3m+ run LTO

  9/10 A Handicap Chase win

  8/10 OR less than 129

  8/10 Carrying 11-00 or less

  8/10 Top 3 in either of the last 2 races

  8/10 3m+ win

The OR and weight stat, rules out all bar Ma Yahab (fails the wieght) and Burren Legend. So we can basically ignore that stat for this renewal.

6/8 Shillingstone (8/1), Ballabriggs (7/1fav) and Ma Yahab (25/1),

5/8 Nostringsattached (12/1),  Khachaturian (16/1), Boychuk (20/1), I'moncloudnine (16/1)

You really still want a horse with a lower weight, which should count out Ballabriggs, however I'm not going to make that decision here. I really like Gallent Nuit as my idea of the winner. The ground should be ok with a bit of rain over night. Of the longer priced ones, Ma Yahab (low weight) is interesting and good value. I'moncloudnine has something about him but hasn't race in this Class before.

Win: Gallent Nuit @ 9/1 (Lad, Coral, VCbet, Bet365)

E/W Ma Yahab @ 25/1 (general); I'moncloudnine @ 20/1 (sportingbet, 16/1 bet365 5places)

Have fun :-)

Cheltenham Day Two

Cheltenham Day Two

Well, I'm more than happy with my first day at Cheltenham, a bigwinner in the first set me up for the day and later on the week. A morning punt on A New Story @ 33/1 came good. Pricewise managed a great day and followers of the 2nd best Value Hunter are quids in. Right, after a day on the lash, I'm writing this with a clear head (thank you egg and bacon sandwich and sugary cuppa). Thankfull the first 2 days were already on the laptop. The next two aren't so a bit of graft tonight and the next 2 days will be in order.

1.30   140th Year Of The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase)

A great start to the card, and plenty of chances here. Of the favourites, none are particularly opposable, I don't think Mobaasher or Pettifour are going to last the distance but they both are good horses on good ground whereas other aren't proven on it.

The others all have their reasons to be backed. I'd rather be with Massasoit (10/1), but there must be some value floating around.

Youngstown fits the trends nicely and I do expect a big run from him. He's certainly overpriced @ 50/1 (vcbet).

Trends:
9/10 3 or more runs over fences
9/10 Finished 1st or 2nd in a 3m+ chase
9/10 Top 4 finish LTO (exception unplaced in a C1 H'cap)
9/10 Aged 6-8
8/10 1st or 2nd on any of last 2 starts
7/10 Won a chase/hurdle over 3m+

Not a great trends race, but Synchronised (non-runner), Fabalu (16/1), Massasoit (10/1), Mobaasher (10/1), Poker De Sivola (18/1) and Youngstown (50/1) are all 6/6. Those with 5/6 are Abbeybraney (9/1), Pettifour (12/1), Presenting Forever (16/1), Pennek (33/1), Cast Cada (40/1), Gentle Ranger (40/1) and Noarad De Verzee (40/1).

Selections:
Win: Massasoit @ 10/1
E/W: Youngstown @ 50/1 (vcbet)


2.05   Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (registered as The Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle)

Trends:
10/10 Aged 5 or 6
  9/10 Pre-race RPR of 142+
  9/10 Finished 1st or 2nd in all completed starts over hurdles
  9/10 Won at least half of all hurdle runs
  9/10 Had won over 2m4+
  8/10 Rated within 11lbs of the RPR top-rated

Good trends race and the three that stand out are:
6/6 Quel Esprit (7/2 fav), Rite Of Passage (4/1), Peddlers Cross (6/1)
5/6 Ghizao (20/1), Summit Meeting (12/1)

Looks to be one of the market leaders, very little form on good ground to go on, I think Quel Esprit is a good think but is far too short. I don't think Rite Of Passage has done anything exceptional and will be against him today. Peddlers Cross's wins are all on softer ground and he'd be an unknown quantity on the good ground. Reve De Sivola is one I'd want to be on the side of, 11/1 is fair enough, but I think I want it each way. Finian's Rainbow is too short at 6/1, but has a chance. The e/w selection could come in the shape of The Knoxs (33/1), plenty of scope for improvement and he's 2 wins have come on Soft and Good-Firm.

Selections:
Win: Peddler's Cross @ 7/1 (VCbet, Bet365, William HIll)
E/W: The Knoxs @ 33/1, Reve De Sivola (if 12/1 or bigger)

2.40 RSA Chase

Trends:
10/10 Didn't race on the flat
10/10 1st or 2nd LTO
10/10 Last run 24-53 days ago
10/10 RPR of 141+
10/10 At least 3 runs over fences
  9/10 Rated within 14lbs of the RPR Top-rated
  9/10 Between 9 and 12 chase/hurdle runs

Most of the are pretty good with the trends, so it will be tough just using the trends..
5/6  Burton Port, (12/1) Diamond Harry (13/2), Little Josh (66/1), Punchestowns (5/2jfav), Weapon's Amnesty  (9/1), Long Run (5/2jfav)

Should be between Long Run and Punchestowns. However I'm backing Diamond Harry as he seems to be the forgotton horse and is 13/2.

Selections:
Win: Diamond Harry @ 13/2 (generl) and if Long Run goes 3/1 I'll probably back him too.

3.20  Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase

Trends:
10/10 Won over 2m 1f 110y+
  9/10 At least 8 chase runs
  9/10 Rated within 10lbs of the RPR Top-rated
  9/10 Course winner
  9/10 No Older than 9yo
  8/10 Pre-race RPR of 167+
  8/10 Won Graded Chase LTO

6/7 Master Minded (10/11fav)
5/7 Big Zeb (11/1), Golden Silver (66/1), Twist Magic (15/2)

I'm going against Master Minded with Kalahari King as he's a super horse on the good ground, and this will be a tough race for MM. Twist Magic doesn't like Cheltenham and must be ignored.

Selections:
Win: Kalahari King @ 9/2 (general)


4.00 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle

Trends:
10/10 Won over hurdles between 2m2f and 2m6f
  9/10 Top 6 finish LTO
  9/10 Won in Class 3 or better
  8/10 Carried no more than 11st
  8/10 Aged 6/7
  8/10 No more than 16 runs over hurdles
  8/10 No run for at least 39 days
  8/10 Won a race that season

8/8 Gold Award (33/1)
7/8 Hampshire Express (20/1), Sir Harry Ormesher (14/1), Lake Legend (20/1)


Gold Award is Pricewised I think, it's still 33/1 and is good value. I wanted to back Deutschland each-way, but he's been backed all week and isn't huge value but must go close. I was against Quantitativeeasing when he was beaten last time and I'm against him today.

Selections:
Win: Deutschland @ 9/1 (Bet365, betfred, vcbet, William Hill)
E/W: Gold Award @ 33/1 (Lad, WH, VC, Bet365);

4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle

Trends:
Only 5 runnings of this, and a couple of them are a bit shaky as well
5/5 OR of 124-133
5/5 Didn't win their first 2 hurdle starts (?!?!)
5/5 By a Sire who won a Group 1 on the flat
5/5 RPR of 112+ (that every horse by miles)
5/5 Won LTO, exception beaten in Grade 2 hurdle

5/5 Fin Vin De Leu (28/1), Bothy (14/1), Sanctuaire (13/2jfav), Ned Of The Hill (40/1), Hunterview (17/2)

Nasty handicap. Small Stakes Advised. No write up as I'm running late.

Selections:
E/W: Bocamix @ 50/1 (bet365 and 5 places too)
E/W: Fin Vin De LEu @ 28/1 (bet365)

5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race)

Trends:
10/10 Won a Bumper with 14 or more runners
10/10 Aged 5 or 6
  9/10 Irish-bred
  8/10 Pre-race RPR of 121+
  8/10 Won a Bumper worth £4,000+

Just 4 with all 5 stats.
5/5 Bubbly Bruce (66/1), Dare Me (25/1), Shannon Spirit (25/1), Tavern Times (10/1).
Al Ferof (10/1) and Carpincho (66/1) are the only otheres to have the 10/10 stat regarding a win in a big field. Al Ferof isn't Irish-bred, and Carpincho looks outclassed.

Selections:
Win: Al Ferof @ 10/1 (general)
E/W: Dare Me @ 25/1 ( bet365, 4 places)

Thats it today, took a while, hoping to be a bit earlier tomorrow, well It'll have to be as I'm at work by noon.

Good Luck

Cheltenham Day One

1.30Spinal Research Supreme Novices' Hurdle
4yo+, 2m 110y, Class 1 (Grade 1)


A match-up on paper between the superstar in the making, Dunguib and Get Me Out Of Here. If you were looking for me to unravel a 33/1 shot to take them on, then you will have to wait for another race. The only thing that could go against them is the ground. It is currently Good/Soft (Good in places), but drying out. Dunguib's only defeat was on better ground (in his only run). Get Me Out Of Here has won on his only try. If, and it's a big IF, something is going to beat them, then Menorah (12/1) is good enough can handle drying ground.

Trends:
10/10 Won on at least 50% of Hurdle starts
9/10 Pre-race RPR of at least 132
9/10 Raced within the last 45 days
9/10 Won last race
8/10 Rated within 8lbs of RPR Top Rated
7/10 Contested a Graded race

Also:
11/20 Were won by Irish-trained horses
The last winner with just 1 run was 1992

Only 2 horses have ticks in all the boxes, Dunguib (evsfav) and Get Me Out Of Here (5/1) and the market suggests it's a two-horse race too.

Selections
Win: Dunguib (evs, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Sportingbet)
Win (w/o Dunguib) Get Me Out Of Here (9/4, Stan James, Bet365, Sportingodds, Bluesq)
Each-Way: Menorah (12/1, totesport, Stan James, Sportingbet, VCbet)



2.05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
5yo+, 2m, Class 1 (Grade 1)

A good looking renewal of the Arkle, it's best sticking to the favourites in the market. The one nagging doubt I have with Captain Cee Bee, is his jumping. He fell in his penultimate start and the only reason he's favourite ahead of Sizing Europe was because “he would have beaten him”. I'm not so sure and Sizing Europe looks better value of the two. The Arkle usually goes to an up and coming youngster, but this year is different as we have plenty of older Champion Hurdle types trying their luck over the fences this season. A week ago, I was tempted to back Sports Line at a nice each-way price, but he's come in for tons of support since then and is only 8/1 and his best runs have been on softer. I really want to tip up Osana, but he hasn't done enough for me this season, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him run into a place though...... Argggh.... Sizing Europe, that's it done. No going back. But Sports Line is the weeks steamer..... oohhh

Selections:
Win: Sizing Europe (11/2, PaddyPower, Coral, SportingBet)
Win: Sports Line (if he drifts to 10/1+)

Trends:
10/10 SP not bigger than 11/1.
9/10 Aged 5-7
9/10 Finished in top 2 in all completed Chases (10/10 top 3)
9/10 Rated within 12lbs of the RPR Top-Rated
9/10 Pre-race RPR of at least 144
9/10 A Best RPR Hurdle rating of at least 143
8/10 3-5 runs over fences
8/10 Won a Novice Chase over 2m-2m1f

The Arkle is race for young Novice Chasers over 2 miles. This year we have a some very good older ex-hurdlers in here which may distort the age stat. However the horses that fit the most trends are: Captain Cee Bee (3/1fav), Sizing Europe (11/2), Riverside Theatre (8/1) all having 7/8. Those with 6/8 are Osana (16/1) and Somersby (4/1). Sports Line (8/1) won an Irish Chase (not Novice) and could also be included with (6/8).


2.40 William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase
5yo+, 3m 1f, Class 1 (Grade 3)

A definite trends race. Therefore we can ignore everything but The Package. That's true, but I've already given you none of that value that I crave. This time yesterday, Ogee was 20/1. Someone's must have been reading by notes, as he's now 11/1 and would have been my bet. One horse that is nicely weighted for this and almost fits the trends is Nenuphar Collonges and I think he's a bit of value here. Last of all, New Alco: not run for 2 years, if it wins, I did mention it.

Selections:
Win: The Package @ 13/2,
Win: Ogee @ 11/1 (William Hill, PaddyPower, Sportingbet) or e/w @ 12/1+
E/W: Nenuphar Collonges @ 22/1 (Vcbet, Ladbrokes, Stan James)

Trends:
10/10 Aged 7-10
10/10 Carried less than 10-13
10/10 OR of 127-143.
9/10 Won over 3m or more
9/10 Finished in top 3 in last 2 starts
8/10 SP between 5/1 and 8/1
8/10 No more than 11 chases
8/10 Ran no more than 4 times in the season

The Package (13/2) hits all the right notes.
Those with 7/8 are Bensalem (11/2fav), Theatrical Moment (12/1), Ogee (11/1) and Chief Dan George (33/1).


3.20 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle
4yo+, 2m 110y, Class 1

The handicaps are easy compared to these quality races. I could give you 5 and still miss the winner Khyber Kim. KK has done very little over the years and then bang, 2 big wins this season and he's still not favourite. Go Native, Solwhit, Zaynar and Medermit might have something to say about that and we haven't even mentioned the 1st/2nd/3rd from last year, it really wouldn't surprise me to see 6 jumping the last in a line...Right enough blathering, save that for the Morning Line/Racing Post. Lets find the winner. Solwhit's negatives are 1) being scoped twice in the last week. 2) Hasn't run at Cheltenham, 3) Likes soft ground. Lets get rid of all the rubbish. The main worry is the scoping as that's bound to put off any horse this close before a race. Facts are Solwhit has good form on the good ground and not having run at Cheltenham isn't a disadvantage until you know you can't run there. Khyber Kim is the one who's form on softer is exceptional and might find it all a bit quick.
{Stop waffling, Editor}

Go Native is now too short, I'm afraid. The market is all over the place, so make sure you get guaranteed prices with the bookies (most do online, and Paddys do in their shops). Bet365 are also matching the best price on every horse until sunday, as well as GP and their 4/1+ C$ offer, where they will match your stake on the next TV race if you have a 4/1+ winner). {Waffling, Ed}

I really don't want you to be put off anything in this so I'm actually going to say no bet, well no win selection. Hand on heart, I will probably have a bit on Solwhit @ 13/2+, but that may change tomorrow.

Selection:
no bet {What!! after all that, Ed}

Trends:
10/10 Ran within last 51 days
9/10 Aged 6-9
9/10 10-25 runs over hurdles
9/10 Won a Grade 1 Hurdle or Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle
9/10 Pre-race RPR of at least 156
8/10 Previous festival winner
8/10 Top Speed figure of at least 152
8/10 Rated within 7lbs of the RPR Top-rated
8/10 Won LTO

Also
Only 1 winner (Hardy Eustace) had unplaced form in his season's figures.
Only 3 winners in the last 30 years hadn't run since the turn of the year.

Go Native (9/2fav) is the only horse that hits all 9 trends.
Those with 8/9 are , Solwhit (13/2), Khyber Kim (8/1) and Celestial Halo (9/1)
7/9 are Punjabi (15/2), Medermit (9/1), and Zaynar (10/1)



4.00 Glenfarclas Handicap Cross Country Chase
5yo+, 3m 7f, Class 2

The Irish benefit race, where Enda Bolger trains the first 3 home. Probably.... Let's not beat around the bush, Garde Champetre and L'ami should be battling it out at the end with Sizing Australia 3rd. Lets try and find the each way. Monkerhostin is interesting now that he's won again this year. The 16/1 is very tempting. A horse I backed last time was Tawnies (and got the forecast up). It's 66/1 here. That was over 2m2f which was too short for him. This is probably a bit too far, but keep a lookout for him in other races.

Selections:
Win: Garde Champetre @ 9/4 (Sportingbet)
E/W: Monkerhostin @ 16/1 (Skybet, Ladbrokes)

Trends:
Only in existence for 5 years, however what can be gather from such a small sample is
5/5 Winners were trained in Ireland (4 by Enda Bolger)
5/5 Won at least 1 of their last 2 outings
5/5 Won a Cross Country race either at Cheltenham or Punchestown
5/5 Won over 3 miles or more
5/5 OR of 126-129 and no more than 10-13 or were Top-Weight

Garde Champetre (9/4fav) hits all 5 trends, not surprising as he's won the last 2 of these. Only 3 other horses have won a Cross Country Chase, L'Ami (7/2), Heads onthe Ground (33/1) and Another Jewel (20/1) (who is the only horse to hit 4/5 trends). Only 3 other horses have won in 1 of their last 2 runs as well, making this another likely win for Garde Champetre.


4.40 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle
4yo+, 2m 4f, Class 1 (Grade 2)

This should be a shootout between the two market principles. They both have possible negatives, Quevega hasn't raced since she won this last year and Voler La Vedette, pulls quite hard in her races and might not enjoy Cheltenham, she's also the Pricewise horse, so you know there's no value in her now. There's value in Quevega @ 2/1 now she's drifted and that is the win bet.
There is definitely some e/w value in the race if you don't fancy these 2. Easter Legend has been cut from 33/1 to 18/1

Selections:
Win: Quevega @ 2/1 (general
E/W: Easter Legend @ 18/1 (bet365, Paddypower, William Hill); Aura About You @ 40/1 (bet365); Amber Brook @ 40/1 (Betfred, Sportingbet, Bluesq, Stan James)

Trends:
This race is only 2 years old. Both winners were 5yo if that is any help. Last year's winner Quevega (5/4fav) is this years hotpot, but hasn't had a run since that win. Voler La Vedette (5/2) is her main market rival, while the inaugural winner, Whiteoak has been retired to stud.