I don't Like Mondays

Very happy with yesterday.... 2 winners from 3 selections. Piste won @ 4/1, I hope you used one of the guaranteed odds bookies (bet365, Hills, Boylesports, Paddys or Stan James). Midnight Cruiser won @ 6/1 (from 9/1). Leleyf was beaten by an unexposed type :-p

There is very little today. One selection at Windsor tonight (I can't get winners at Windsor) is in the 8.10. I can ignore Roly Poly (16/1) and Blowhole (40/1). Rio Guru (16/1) has gone backwards from a promising start last year. Quince (16/1) has had to drop down in Class to get any prize money and is back up to C4.

The favourite, Racing Hero (10/11f), has obvious chances on his handicap debut, but is not my choice here. Pelham Crescent (11/1, coral) is a decent horse but still hasn't won away from the AW or Bath (hat-trick there in April/May). Poor at Sandwon LTO.

Buddy Holly (10/1, Hills) is a horse I fancied and landed the money at Kempton 12 days ago. Not a good run 3 days ago and the ground looks too fast for him.

Trans Siberian (10/1) seems to like Windsor (1 win & 2 places from 5 runs) and is worth considering but Resurge (12/1) who tackles 1m2f for the first time (been staying on well after some shoddy starts) after finding C2/C3 races a little too hot this . The good to firm ground will suit him and if he can get off to a decent start has a good chance of getting in the money.

So Resurge is my pick. Don't take less than 12/1.

Update: vcbet has just gone 14/1.

Sunday is a day of rest....

Yesterday.
Trumpet Lily, punted in a little to 9/2, but didn't challenge.
King Of The Moors was 3rd :)
Binfield was a NR and a few more left Hallindal as one of 6 horses and unplaced.
Ours was average.
Whirlijig was 2nd
Lilly Blue and the other thing Montoya wotsit did bugger all.

Not quite the consistency I'd hoped for and a slight loss on the day.

Sunday looks pretty quiet. Can't see any each way selections at the moment, there may be a few win bets. When I say 'win bets' I actually mean bored bets. It's probably a day to swerve, but as I'm doing bugger all at the moment, I'll stick some bets up :-D

Windsor
2.55 Piste (7/2) has a good draw and is getting there. Looks a fairly weak renewal. Dancing Wave could be his biggest danger.

3.25 The Hills partnership runs Legislate (9/4jf) in this, but is too short for a value hunter. I liked the look of Midnight Cruiser's run at Sandown in April and he is upped in trip here, however the 9/1 offered by Stan James looks a tad on the large side. He is the value here.

4.00 Thanks RP, blurt out the usual claptrap... .'exposed' and 'vulnerable', the usual bollocks trotted out about a horse that's run a few times. For example Leleyf (8/1) is it's prime target for this boring vitriol with 5 runs. They love picking on horses like this and always plump for something (for example Existentialist) that has run crap but might improve....... The numbers don't add up.. It was crap last time... FACT.... last.... FACT..... led for a bit, then finished last, so fuck the draw...... Oh I feel much better now....

Leleyf won on it's first 2 starts, has significantly been upped in class since and has it's good-firm ground today. It's only run 5 times, yet is now cast aside like a used rubber and thrown in the bin, not that I'm advocating using condoms more than once.... yeuch. Anyways, Leleyf has the form in the book and at 8/1 is a good price in this. (Of course there might be something less exposed in the line up...zzzzzzzzzz)

I'm going for a lie down after that..... Fucking Racing Post.......

another frustrating day

First of all the good stuff

Avon River won (SP of 5/1)... missed the finish as some pesky customers wanted serving.... meh.

Now the not so good stuff. I do hope you all betfaired for some decent profit.

Lady Bluesky 25/1 --> 8/1 but did bugger all.
Ellmau 12/1 --> 9/2. Part one done...... Unfortunately Ellmau burst through the stalls causing a false start according to the RP. I couldn't see through the gloom, but when they restarted Ellmau was withdrawn, so gamble not landed.
Wiggy Smith 12/1 --> 5/2fav. A strange betting heat with Wiggy Smith going from outsider to favourite (after 2 withdrawals). With this now a 6 runner race, we already know what's going to happen, so yes Wiggy is 3rd...

All in all some amazing value prices, but no profit.... 2 days of immense frustration at this end and I'm sure we will get one soon. Keep the faith.

Saturday
I'm not going to trawl through all the big races today but pick out the best value if its there. Newcastle is now soft going.
3.10 Hits Only Vic is into 12/1 now from a lot bigger earlier due to him being one of the few with decent soft form.

Newmarket
4.35 Trumpet Lily (7/1, boylesports) looks too big in this 1m handicap.
5.05 King Of The Moors (14/1, Coral) gets his ground for the first time in a while today and is recommended. Hasn't hit the heights of his Hamilton win last September, and is dropped down to 7f for the first time in an eternity, but should be up there at the start and in the mix at the end.

Windsor 5.10 Neither Hallingdal (12/1) nor Binfield (22/1, Coral) sholud be as big as they are, but this is pretty competative, so either small stakes advised or some Betfair action required.

Doncaster 7.05 Ours (12/1, Stan James) should be snapped up before someone else does.

7.40 Whirlijig (14/1, Bet365, PP, SJ) is back on the flat after running on the flat (bumper style). Has place chances at a big price.

Lingfield 6.15 Really crap race. Lilly Blue (12/1, Bet365, Boylesports, SJ) showed enough at Wolverhampton LTO to get something here. Manolito Montoya (22/1, William Hill) has done bugger all so far, but should like the step up to 1m4f.

Ours is my best bet of the day I think... laters

disappointed

Yesterday could have been so good but ends up frustrating as usual.

Moon Sister cruised up on the rail and had nowhere to go. I don't think Darryl Holland did it very well tbh, but once he knew there was no gap, he eased him into last place. Moon Sister started at 15/2 (from 20/1) so job done as far as I'm concerned. Follow this filly next time.

Mayfair's Future SP'd at 5/1 (from 14/1) and managed to get 2nd, 3 lengths behind the worthy winner.

Slightly down on the day, but I'm happy with both selections.

Today there's a few more bets, but nothing as strong as yesterday's two.

Doncaster
4.00 2-yo races aren't my thing usually, but Avon River (13/2, betfred, sportingbet) hasn't really put a foot wrong in his last 2 races, winning his Maiden in May and then stepping up in Class and Distance last time at the Derby meeting. Up in trip again and overpriced considering he's a Hannon horse.

Newcastle
7.55 Why is Lady Bluesky (25/1, vcbet, skybet), a former bumper winner running in 7f flat races? This is a crap race, Silk Trail (evsf) and Kammaan (3/1) will be in the frame, but the 3rd favourite, Riley Queen Bee (4/1) is nothing special and the rest are awful, putting Lady Bluesky in the hunt for a place. Not a big bet, but 2/1 for the place isn't too bad in this race.

8.25 Ellmau's 12/1 (bet365) is far too huge for this horse. They are out of line and you should be able to lay this off @ 8/1 nearer the off. Will need to get back to his Southwell win of last autumn, however this step back up in trip will suit. Handsome Falcon (3/1f) is a decent favourite but I hope Ellmau rediscovers his best today.

Newmarket
8.40 Wiggy Smith is probably my bet of the day at Betfred's outstanding 12/1. His disappointing run last time may have inflated his price today and I'm happy to back him. His price should be about 4/1 in my book. Really can't understand it myself. "Ground may be a concern" says the Racing Post.. Its Good ground FFS... He 6 wins have come on GS (1), GF (2) and Good (3).. Jeeesuzzzzzzzzz

2 good bets for thursday

Apex ran well for the majority yesterday before fading late on. I'll keep a look out for him next time.

2 horses I think are ridiculous prices today are


Newcastle
5.00 Moon Sister (20/1, boylesports, sportingbet). Ok, first of all this is now down to 8 runners, so you are obviously taking a risk about another coming out, but this is a decent horse and he shouldn't be 20/1 (Hills are 9/1). Her main rivals are Gripsholm Castle (7/4f) and Lady Jane Digby (9/4), but this is a good trading opportunity with real place claims.

Kempton
6.10 Mayfair's Future (14/1, bet365). Wow, what a load of dross in this Class 6 donkeyfest. Again another overpriced horse compared to the market. If it doesn't make the frame, I'll give it up. Den Maschine (5/1, skybet, vc, bet365) is a worthy rival.

That's all folks...

Wednesday e/w

Well Stoneacre Lad didn't offer much in the profit department. I tuned in to see him hit the reverse gear after what looked like a good first half of the race. pfft

Not much 'value' around today.


Kempton 8.50
Apex (25/1, general). This was a good horse in 2007. It hasn't run for 21 months now, so as always fitness has to be taken on trust. Martin Hill has a small stable and theoretically this is the best rated horse he has. These are the types of horses that only win if you don't back them (of course), so I have to include him for the day.

Monday

Not much value around today......

3.15 Lingfield

Stoneacre Lad (12/1) has the ability to win this, certainly to get a place and I'd be disappointed if he didn't. His record of 0/11 (place record) over the past year is crap, but this could be the perfect race for him.

He won a Class 1, Listed race at Kempton last year and has consistently been running in C1/C2 ever since. His C3, 4th at York 10 days ago should have got him up for this one.

Tom Queally is on board who got him to win a Class 2 at Ascot in 2007, This is a Class 3 that he should really be winning on his ability.

Trainers to follow

Richard Fahey's record this season has been pretty immense. Since March, he's sent out 369 flat runners with a 18.4% strike rate with a LSP of +£92 to a £1 stake or ROI of 125% (although this is boosted by a 66/1 at Ascot in Cosmic Sun).

If we concentrate on his top 3 jockeys his record improves even more.
Paul Hanagan 181 rides, 33 wins, ROI 133%
T Hamilton 65 rides, 12 wins, ROI 120%
Fred Tylicki 38 rides, 12 wins, ROI 229%

Hanagan has 4 rides this week for Fahey. Smarterthanutyhink, Bo McGinty and Starla Dancer at Beverley, Tuesday and William Morgan at Carlisle, Wednesday.
Tylicki rides Swinbrook at Newcastle, Friday.
Hamilton rides Starla Dancer at Hamilton, Thursday (if he runs).

The Barry Hills/ Richard Hills combination has also been pretty strong.
Since the start of the year Richard has ridden 20 horses for his father and has 8 wins. for a ROI of 256%. Michael Hills makes a profit too. 110 rides, 26 wins for 120% ROI.

So backing the Hills/Hills blindly gives a sound profit. However Barry Hills stats were immense in April/May and have tailed off a little, but after his successful Royal Ascot its certainly worth backing him in the big races.
Richard Hills record in Class 1 or 2 races is pretty hot, 6/14 with an ROI of 317%.
Michael Hills has 10/45, SR of 22% and ROI of 168%.

Michael Hills has 6 rides this week for Barry.

The final trainer to look at is Mark Johnston who has a fantastic record for getting his horses back to winning form after a break.
Horses tend to keep their fitness for a cetain period of time, about a month is generally the latest before they drop off. Johnston's record this year is 12/51 runners and a SR of 23.50%, generating an ROI of 134%. If you only look at his handicap runners his record is 10/38, SR of 26% and an ROI of 153%

His record after 90+ days off is pretty decent. 8/35 runs for an SR of 22.9% and returns of 116%, pretty decent back after a 3 month break.

Combining handicaps with 90+ days off and we have a 30% SR (167% ROI), his record being 7/23.
If you want to ge one step further his record for handicap 2 or 3 yo's male horses since March is as follows:
5/13, SR of 38.5% and a ROI of 232%, but that's getting a bit too fancy.

back Fahey with P Hanaghan, F Tylicki or T Hamilton on board.
back Michael or Richard Hills especially, riding for their father, especially in Class 1 or 2 races.
back Mark Johnston's horses in handicaps if they have been off for 90 days.

night.
VH

Thursday's Royal Ascot

Very truncated message tonight.. No time, same likely tomorrow too.


2.30 - Norfolk Stakes
Monsieur Chevalier (13/8f) should win, but Yogaroo's 2 stablemates have hosed up in races on tues and weds, so he is now a big danger. Star Rover's (66/1) got decent form to get a place at huge odds, but ran averagely in tuesday's race.

3.00 - Ribblesdale Stakes
This revolves around 3 fillies. Leocorno (15/8f) hasn't done anything wrong so far, but has a tough race with Take The Hint (3/1) and Flying Cloud (9/1) challenging. Can't really split them.

3.45 - Gold Cup
Yeats (9/4f) has won this for the last 3 years. But he ran fairly pooly on his last run and no 8yo has won this for 90 years.
Geordieland (3/1) was runner-up the last 2 years and is also an 8yo. Patkai (10/3) is the up and coming horse that Geordieland beat last time.
Veracity (7/1) may get a place but probably won't win.

4.20 - Britannia Stakes
30 runner race. Should be sticking to horses drawn high or low.
The race today was won by those drawn low, so it could pay to stick with Brief Encounter (8/1) (drawn 6), Satwa Laird (40/1) (drawn 3) or River Captain (14/1) (drawn 2). Desert Creek (13/2f) is drawn the other side in 26.

4.55 - Hampton Court Stakes
Freemantle (5/4f) looks a good horse, but could be turned over by Monitor Closely (7/1). On Our Way (28/1) is an e/w shot.

5.30 - King George V Stakes
Quite a few at big prices to chose from. Again I'm going to stay fairly low on the draw as they definitely have an advantage.
I really fancy London Bridge (16/1) (drawn 8). Lasso The Moon (20/1) is drawn nicely in 6.
Those drawn a little higher are Dubai Crest in 10 (40/1), Chiberta King in 11 (9/1) and Takaatuf in 12 (20/1).

No milk today

Very poor day (Ascot excepted).

Yesterday was also frustrating.

Hurlingham should have won, [rant] only his jockey thought he'd run up the fence into a gap that disappeared.[/rant]

Atlantic Beach was 4th but had every chance.

Galant Eye was backed off the boeards into 9/1 but never struck a blow. Well done if you traded that one.

Past Heratage was 3rd, behind the winner Just Like That



so 4pts down on the day. Still you will save some money today as the cards don't offer much for me.

Wednesday's Royal Ascot

A quick recap of tuesday...
Paco Boy does stay. super run, Gladitorus was very disapointing.
Scenic Blast won as did Mastercraftsman who looked beat 1/2 a furlong from the finish, but came back superbly to beat Delegator.
Canford Cliffs hosed up too and is the horse to beat in the 2,000 Guineas next season.
Gala Evening was 4th for a nice e/w return.
And Little Scotland was 4th, so you got a payout with totesport or bet365, but not elsewhere. Yet I give mentions to the 2nds and 3rd in Di Steffano and Fratellino.. oh well. hope someone got lucky

Just a little over 2pts profit for the meeting. Happy with Gala Evening's run. Shame about Little Scotland. That cost me the placepot. Hope you took 4 places @ 14/1.

Right, onto Wednesday

2.30 Jersey Stakes - 7f for 3yo
A tricky renewal here. The winner usually comes from the top of the betting. Indicating Infiraad (5/1f) having a cracking chance. The Hills/Hills combination has been hot in recent weeks, but I don't think he's done too much in his 2 wins this term. Loch Linnhe (6/1) needs to step up for his debut win in May, and I'm happy to take him on too. Richard Hills prefers the favourite to stablemate Ouqba (10/1) although he is third top-rated. The joint top-rated horses, Gallagher (9/1) and Donativum (10/1), both decent 2-yo's. This is Gallagher's 1st run of the season and it remains to be seen whether he has trained on. Donativum ran poorly on his seasonal bough and I can't be with him. Dettori chooses Ashram (10/1) who disappointed in the Guineas. This should suit better but I'm not convinced. One that does fit the trends at a bigger price is Instalment (25/1, Stan James), however his record over 7f is 0-3, and looks a 6f horse.
I'm going to look at 2 horses to take them on with. Ocean's Minstrel (16/1) is improving with every run. His win at the Derby meet was decent enough and should bowl along in front from his low draw and his proven stamina can get him in the mix. Total Gallery (25/1, Lads) comes from a 5f race at Haydock against older horses, but both his excellent 6f wins also indicated (by way of in-running comments) that 6f is his limit. His trainer reckons he's a 5f horse, so I'm a little perplexed as to why he would run him at 7f for the first time and not the King's Stand over 5f on tuesday. A conundrum indeed, Watson.
Selection - Ocean's Minstrel (16/1 e/w, bet365, betfred).

3.05 Windsor Forest Stakes - 1m for Fillies
Looks a straight shootout between Lush Lashes (13/8f) who finally got some deserved wins at the end of last season, and Heaven Sent (5/2f). A 3rd horse to throw into the equation is Eva's Request (9/1, vcbet, Ladbrokes), however will like it a bit wet in the morning as she has no form on good-firm. Difficult decision. If the ground softens, then I'd take a punt on Eva's Request, but can't make a decision until then.
No selection

3.45 Prince Of Wales' Stakes - 1m2f
Never be afraid of foreign horses.. They usually end up a bigger price than they are entitled to be due to good old English xenophobia. Now the 2 with impressive French form are Vision D'Etat (7/2, vcbet) and Never On Sunday (4/1). Both excellent horses with results to match. Favourite Tartan Bearer (7/4f) of course has his chances but I'm not keen. I'd be happy to back Twice Over (8/1) but he doesn't win too much either.
Selection - Never On Sunday (4/1) as his stable is in form and Vision D'Etat may want further.

4.20 Royal Hunt Cup (Handicap) - 1m
30 runners up the straight mile. We must avoid horses drawn in the middle say 9-21 as thay have an awful record of even getting in the frame. Forgotten Voice (9/2f), great draw, great form, great chance. Far too short for me, remember handicap good thing Bankable from last year!!!
A few of these have won me money so I mustn't get sentimental over them. I could mull for hours over most of the field but this is a good trends race so if we combine form and stats we can only come up with one horse from 30. Mia's Boy (14/1). The draw is good and he is always there or there abouts. Ryan Moore rides him today and I'm pretty hopeful.
Selection - Mia's Boy (14/1, bet365 - 5places) Others to pay 5 places are totesport, boylesports, paddypower and stan james.

4.55 Queen Mary Stakes - 5f for 2y0 Filles
Another race where bare form and trends lead to only 2 selections. Don't Tell Mary (9/2, vcbet, Ladbrokes) and Misheer (11/1, vcbet, bluesquare). The favourite, Rose Blossom (4/1f), doesn't impress me too much.
Selection - Split stakes between Don't Tell Mary (9/2) and Misheer (11/1).

5.30 Sandringham Handicap - 1m for 3yo Fillies
Tough race to finish. I do like the top 2 in the market on Photographic (5/1f) and Moneycantbuymelove (15/2). Some of the would be challenger have somew good form on soft. But it ain't soft, so they are too risky. Sigh. Leave it alone is the best advice I can give.
Selection - Moneycantbuymelove (15/2) and Photographic (5/1f.


So that's that. Mia's Boy is my best bet, very little to be too confident about in the other races. I'll try and find some winners at the other meetings but that will probably be nearer 1pm if I make it at all.

Publish Post

Tuesday's tips

Not too much else around today.

Thirsk
4.35 Not a bad little race here and Hurlingham (6/1, William Hill) seems a little on the large side. Consistent whenever he runs, I think 1m4f is his best distance and is worth backing at 6/1.

5.10 Atlantic Beach (9/2f, Lads, vc) is my selection. There aren't many who look to progressive this season. Stevie Gee (11/2) hasn't hit the heights of 2008 in his 4 runs this season. Two at bigger prices to make the frame could be Legal Eagle (12/1, Hills), who ran well at Doncaster and is dropped back down in Grade and Rasaman (14/1, general), who has good course form, however hasn't won at 6f for 3 years but I was impressed with his last race over 6f at Hamilton last week against some good horses.

Newton Abbot
6.45 Galant Eye (33/1, bet365, Paddypower) hasn't run for 14 months, but I'm more than happy to back him if he can get back to the form of his win here 3 years ago (yes he's only run 3 times since then). a bit of rain would go amiss, but I'll take the good ground. I fully expect him to start 16/1, so Betfair me up.

7.45 Past Heritage (7/1, general) is my pick. Fitness taken on trust, however I'm always happy to back them after a few months off especially in a weak renewal such as this. Just Like That (3/1f) his likeliest rival.

Re-Launch for Royal Ascot

Right, I really have to pull my finger out.... This will have some sort of bollocks on it at least 3 times a week..... I promise....

We will start with an analysis of the first day of Royal Ascot as it has been requested by one loyal follower....

2.3o Queen Anne Stakes - 1 mile
Does Paco Boy (7/2) stay a mile? I don't think he does, this should prove it one way or the other. Gladitorus (5/2f) should reproduce his Dubai wins here and if he does will be the one to beat. Main Aim (9/2) tries a mile for the first time. A really decent horse over 7f, but I just don't know if he'll stay so I'm staying away. Alexandros (8/1) put Paco Boy and Aqlaam (10/1) to the sword last time out, but that was on softer. Mac Love (50/1) won well last time out and a good 4th (50/1) the time before that. If they go too quick, then he could be staying on past beaten horses for a place.
Selection - Gladitorus 5/2f (Ladbrokes, Coral, Stan James, vcbet)

3.05 King Stand Stakes - 5f
The talking horse here is Amour Propre (7/2), well I heard nothing else from the Racing Press in the last 2 weeks. Yup, the way he won the Palace House stakes was very impressive and he should be on everyone's shortlist. Scenic Blast (3/1f) is the Australian jolly. The Aussies have a great record in this race and he has to be seriously considered. Borderlescott (10/1) is a punter's favourite, not that he wins very much. A perennial bridesmaid in so many races, so place possiblities at best. The last 2 I'm considering are Fleeting Spirit (9/2) and Tax Free (11/1). Fleeting Spirit has been away for 8 months, but can go well fresh and If he's up to his form can threathen the status quo. Tax Free is an e/w shot . Personally I can't see him winning but could make the frame.
Selection - Can't split them, so 1/2 pt on Amour Propre 7/2 and Scenic Blast 3/1f.

3.45 St James Palace Stakes - 1m for 3yo
Mastercraftsman (9/10f) is the best horse here judging by his destruction of the field in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. that was on soft ground but has won on good-firm. Delegator (9/2) gets his ground to turn the tables, but really has it all to do. Soul City (22/1) followed the favourite home in 3rd and is value. Evasive (5/1) needs to find something to reverse form here but isn't without hope if he strips fitter for his 2,000 Guineas 6th.
Selection - Mastercraftsman 9/10f (vcbet) and Soul City 22/1 (vcbet).

4.20 Coventry Stakes - 6f for 2yo
Trends-wise this is pretty straight-forward. The winner will come from either, Canford Cliffs (2/1f), No Hubris (11/2) or Red Jazz (8/1). FACT.
Selection - none or all 3.

4.55 Ascot Stakes (Handicap) - 2m4f
Last Year's winner, Missoula (20/1) runs again and is 2lbs lower this year but doesn't seem to be in anywhere near to winning this at the moment. Kayf Aramis (7/1f) hosed up 2 runs ago, but disappointed LTO at Goodwood, but that probably came too soon. A solid favourite. Sesenta (9/1) hasn't put a foot wrong in last 2 starts and has the profile to take this. Probably not a great race from a punters prospective. There are few no-hopers in this (100/1 shot Valentino Rossi being an exception). Even Gala Evening (25/1) has a realistic chance in this, and if the rain was to come I'd consider Fire And Rain (28/1).
Selection - Gala Evening (25/1) at a push.

5.30 Windsor Castle Stakes - 5f for 2yo
Not really the kind of race to get you out of trouble. 100/1 shot Flashman's Papers won it last year for John Best. George Baker rides George Baker (33/1) for George Baker and it ran an ok 3rd at 33/1 last time. Mick Channon has a good record and saddles Di Stefano (33/1). Mister Mannanan (4/1f) has the profile of a winner and Angel's Pursuit (5/1) has won well on his only start so far. But I'm going to have to find a big priced horse for you. Fratellino (40/1) has some decent form in the book, but looks too exposed to win this. Star Rover (12/1) is a possibility but I can't help think he isn't classy enough to win. Dancing Freddie (50/1, stan james) also needs to come on again. Little Scotland (16/1, Ladbrokes, vcbet) has a good draw and is racing here instead of the fillies race.
Selection - Nothing much. Star Rover 12/1 and Little Scotland 16/1 against the field if I have to stick my neck out.

totesport and bet365 are offering 4 places @ 1/4 odds. Boylesports and skybet only offer 3 places @ 1/5 odds.

The rest of the days racing should be reviewed later.