Friday 3 April 2009

Aintree Day 2

2.00
This is all about American Trilogy (11/4f, sportingbet), the impressive Cheltenham winner. He should win as this looks a fairly average field. He 'should' win.

2.35
Herecomesthetruth
(9/4f, sportingbet) goes for a five-timer today and is a worthy favourite here. I thought that Massini's Maguire (5/2) ran like he's ready for the step up to 3m1f at Cheltenham (3rd behind Cooldine) but of the two Herecomesthetruth looks more solid. This looks tough for Shining Gale (13/2, sportingbet), who will win races at a lower level. Siegemaster (10/1) is a horse who I've followed over in Ireland for a bit. I backed him at Cheltenham where he fell whilst up with the pace. I expect him to come on and challenge here if he jumps well.

3.10
RIP Exotic Dancer, who died of a heartattack in his stable after a fine run yesterday.
I'm hoping that Voy Por Ustedes (13/8f, vcbet) will do what he did last year and win at Aintree after a disappointing Cheltenham. He's the best horse here. Tidal Bay (11/2, vcbet, Ladbrokes, Coral) needs to put his Cheltenham display behind him and is best watched. Of the e/w chances, Petit Robin (12/1, spbet, Bluesq) looks the most likely. Brierius (22/1) is dropped down in trip by over half a mile and I would prefer him over 3m.

3.45
28 runners and the best horse to back is the favourite.....pants. Lots of 'Grand National' rejects in here over 2m5f... Hmmm. Anyways Ping Pong Sivola (15/2f, spbet) should be in your placepot, but I wouldn't be backing him at that price. Mr Pointment (9/1) is hard to recommend and Gwanako (8/1) only wins if I don't back him ( I haven't) . I back New Little Bric @ 40/1 where he runs crap and he then hoses up at 14/1 next time. He's 14/1 here and I wouldn't back him with stolen money. Oodachee (22/1) was decent at Cheltenham and if you ignore that, he's got conditions to suit here. Looks like a great race... to watch.

4.20
Ah, A battle of the Cheltenham Novices. The race where I got Chief Dan George @ 40/1, 2 years ago as Wichita Lineman and Massini's Maguire went hammer and tongs all the way round only for CDG to plod along and take them in the run-in... Great scenes... The 3rd that day??? Imperial Commander, winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Ryanair Chase this season for £210k. Anyway back to business. I'd love to tell you who's going to win but I can't, best to watch some future chase winners in action.
Mikael D'Haugenet's fine run 3 weeks ago makes Karabak (9/4f, William Hill) the favourite. He should be suited by this trip, but I didn't think he ran a great race there, he has something to prove. Pride Of Dulcote looks too big at 11/2 considering he only lost to Weapons Amnesty (11/2) by 1/2 length at Cheltenham. The better ground is in his favour and is my selection. Unchartered territory for According To Dick (9/1, blusq) and is ignored.

4.55
I've never rated Aigle D'or (13/2f) and I'm not going to start now. Piriya (25/1) was awful at Cheltenham, I'm loathed to give him another chance in a competative race like this. A race to leave methinks. Not even a token e/w selection. :-(

5.30
Mare's Bumper. Morning Supreme (7/2f) was 5th at Cheltenham (behind the very impressive Dunguib) and now races against the girls. Should win, but something always comes along and you should be in the pub by now anyway....

NAP 2.00 American Trilogy
NB 3.10 Voy Por Ustedes

Wednesday 1 April 2009

Grand National thoughts


Grand National Thoughts (wednesday 1st April, 12.30am)


Horse Age-Weight Notes

Cloudy Lane 9-11-10 A class horse who won’t be winning, carrying 11-10 round Aintree.

Chelsea Harbour 9-11-8 Dark horse last year before fading. Experience may count, but won’t ship this weight around Aintree.

Snowy Morning 9-11-8 Good horse and a live chance if the weights hadn’t shifted him up to 11-8. Too much to bear now.

Knowhere 11-11-7 Too much weight.

Comply Or Die 10-11-6 Last year’s winner and one for the shortlist then. Shouldering half a stone more this year and nowhere near the form of last season. Ran ok at Cheltenham to finish 7th in the William Hill Trophy behind Maljimar (2nd)

Ollie Magern 11-11-6 Just behind Comply Or Die at Cheltenham, Another with a large weight burden. Will bowl long up front and fade on the second circuit.

Stan 10-11-6 As well as lumping the weight around, still hasn’t won over further than 2m 5f, so won’t be winning this.

Black Apalachi 10-11-5 The first of the possible winners. With the weights compacted at around 10-7, it’s feasible that a horse carrying 11-5 will win, so I won’t bump them off completely, however I’d still prefer a horse carrying 11st max. Fits the trends and has a good chance of a place, and possibly a win.

Hear The Echo 8-11-5 The same as above. A good profile but too much weight probaibly.

Preists Leap 9-11-5 An Irish raider that hasn’t protected his handicap mark thanks to a fine win at Gowran Park in January beating Chelsea Harbour. Can’t see how he will win this unless it becomes a mudbath and even then a bottom weight will surely beat him.

My Will 9-11-4 Hmmm. A Paul Nicholls good thing... well, Nicholls doesn’t hide his horses from the handicapper, which is the main reason he has never won the Grand National. My Will could change all that after a brave 5th in the Gold Cup. But surely that’s what he was aimed for and he won’t have enough to win this carrying 11-4. Is a few pounds ‘well in’ at the weights but no value now. Oh and he’s French-bred, a National no-no according to the longstanding trends, although I won’t rule out a horse on just that stat.

Eurotrek 11-11-3 Avoid, no Grand National winner has 2 years out of the loop. Because of this he’s hardly experienced, even at 11 and carrying over 11st is a no no.

State Of Play 9-11-2 I felt that he was a real dark horse but is burdened with 11-2 now which is a negative. However could go close and I certainly would back against him.

Big Fella Thanks 7-11-1 Good horse, wrong race, Paul Nicholls obsession with 6 & 7 year olds running in this race is ridiculous. 6 starts over fences does not a GN winner make.

Mon Mome 9-11-0 French-bred, but one that could break that trend. Beat Star De Mohaison (poor at Cheltenham), Character Building (great at Cheltenham) and Comply Or Die in December but ran averagely in the Welsh National. Outside chance.

Silver Birch 12-11-0 Winner in 2007, but has been injured since. Has a good profile if a little old. Not impressed in his last 2 point-to-points, and is reluctantly passed over.

Butler’s Cabin 9-10-13 Backed this year because he was travelling so well under McCoy before falling last year. He wasn’t going to win last year and he shouldn’t win this year either.
French-bred with a tough run at Cheltenham and not in the form he was 2 years ago when he won the Irish National.

Offshore Account 9-10-13 Inexperienced and can be ignored.

Parsons Legacy 11-10-12 Looks to have a good profile and beat some good horses at Cheltenham in December. Place possibilities more likely that a win, but can’t rule out.

Reveillez 10-10-12 Profile fits all the trends, apart from the ‘ran at Cheltenham’ semi-trend where he was 11th in the William HIll Trophy. A winner at the Aintree meeting in 2008.

Fundamentalist 11-10-11 Not sure he has the stamina for this, however he does pass all the trends. Was pulled-up at Cheltenham in the WH Trophy

Golden Flight 10-10-11 True French-bred with only 2 races in this country (both at Cheltenham, where he managed 12th in the WH Trophy). Passes the stats, but a lack of experience of UK fences is a massive negative.

L’Ami 10-10-11 Another Frenchie, whose tough race in the Cross-Country Chase (2nd) won’t have him at his peak for this. Sure to run his race, but not sure he will be good enough.

Battlecry 8-10-10 Decent horse, this isn’t his race. Only win over 3 miles was over hurdles. Why would he win this?

Cornish Sett 10-10-10 Ran a great race in the Welsh National to finish 2nd after staying on strongly at the end. A Nicholls horse that is actually a Grand National type. A lively outsider.

Fleet Street 10-10-10 Too inexperience to win this, sorry.

Musica Bella 9-10-10 Where to start. French-bred Mare who’s never won over 3m. Ignore, ignore, ignore

Can’t Buy Time 7-10-9 Good 4th in the NH Chase at Cheltenham over 4 miles, however 7 year olds don’t win the National, so has to be passed over. One for the future.

Darkness 10-10-9 Passes the trends, in fact is a perfect fit, however all of his wins have been in small fields and this has to be a major worry. If McCoy was on him, he’d be half the price. One worry was his failure to finish the Welsh National (big field) but this was only his 2nd run in 30 months.

Irish Invader 8-10-9 Only 3 mile win was over hurdles. Not on my short-list.

Rambling Minster 11-10-9 Comes into the reckoning after a superb ride in the BlueSquare Gold Cup at Haydock in Feb. Very good chance especially if there’s some rain.

Southern Vic 10-10-9 Fell in the Becher Chase at the Canal turn whilst running well (his only ever run outside Ireland, hmmm). Passes all the trends and could run a big race.

Kilbeggan Blade 10-10-7 In great form and has a definite ‘live’ chance. Should be on everyone’s shortlist.

Brooklyn Brownie 10-10-6 His biggest win was the Perth Gold Cup, beating Snoopy Loopy (2nd) and Out The Black (5th,) last summer. That was worth £16,000 and every recent winner of the National has won a race more valuable than that. I guess he can run into a place at a nice price.

Himalayan Trail 10-10-6 Too inexperienced to win this, however he won the Midlands National last year and that is a plus. Could get a place if he gets round.

Arteea 10-10-5 Wilson owned horse, so well out of its depth here. 57 lengths behind Character Building at Cheltenham and only stepped up to 3 miles in February.. No no no no.

Cerium 8-10-5 Another Wilson horse, ran in the Gold Cup and didn’t pull-up, which was a surprise. If you still fancy backing him, he’s French...

Idle Talk 10-10-5 Isn’t good enough to win this, his biggest win was a Novices’ Chase in 2006 for £6,000.

Kelami 11-10-5 Might have been good enough once, but this French-bred doesn’t have it any more.

Zabenz 12-10-5 Too old now, although still passes all the trends. One win since 2002 says it all.

-----------------------------aren’t in the race below this line-----------------------------------

Maljimar 9-10-4 Mugged by Wichita Lineman at Cheltenham. Has never won over 3 miles (though would have at Cheltenham) Has a chance if he gets in.

Companero 9-10-3 Novice chaser with only 3 starts over fences (2 this year!!!) Look elsewhere.

Pomme Tiepy 6-10-3 French-bred mare. If one was going to win, then this would be the one, but it won’t so don’t bother.

Niche Market 8-10-3 Only win was the Listed Silver Cup at Ascot in December, however that gets him through the important trends. I Would be a little worried about his lack of experience. 8th, behind Nine De Sivola and Can’t Buy Time at Cheltenham last month.

Mattock Ranger 9-10-3 Irish raider who passes all the trends. Pulled-up in 5 of the last 6 races. Leave alone.

Iron Man 8-10-3 French-bred who’s never won over 3 miles. Fell last year. Not going to win.

Flintoff 8-10-2 Andy’s horse, lead over the last in the Midlands National last month and ran superbly at a big price in the Scottish National last year (I backed him @ 66/1 ). Biggest win was £5000 2 years ago. Would be a massive shock if he won, but could nick a place at a push).

Patsy Hall 9-10-2 Fell in the William Hill Trophy 2 out and was staying on. Jumping a problem and now hasn’t won for over 2 years.

Bible Lord 8-10-2 One of the favourite for the Paddy Power Gold Cup this season, but has done nothing this season. Not a Grand National horse I’m afraid.

Dix Villez 10-10-2 Ran in the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham (5th, behind L’Ami). Difficult to see this French-bred winning this. Biggest win beating Garde Champetre in the Glenfarcas Cross-Country Chase in November (£15,000).

Bagan 10-10-2 French-bred, doesn’t have the class to win this. Best win was his last, a year ago, winning over 2m4f at Warwick.

Beat The Boys 8-10-2 Not finished in his last 3 starts, including the Midlands National. Beating Joe Lively last year was his best win and that only got connections £11,000. Nope.

--------------------------------very unlikely to run-------------------------------------------

In The Loop 11-10-1 4 chase starts. No chance.

Seymour Weld 9-10-1 Fails every trend, but at least it isn’t French eh. Never even raced at 3 miles or more in 7 starts.

Pak Jack 9-10-1 Frenchie without a 3 mile win (only 3 starts at 3m +). Only win was a 2 miler at Kempton in 2005. No chance.

Nadover 8-10-1 Out and out stayer, who was 7th last year. French-bred though, and still hasn’t won a classy race or over 3 miles. Same again I’d imagine.

Nine De Sivola 8-10-0 3rd to the Tricky Trickster at Cheltenham in the 4 miler. Very consistent, however he hasn’t won a classy race yet and this French-bred won’t be winning this.

Tom Sayers 11-10-0 Passes the trends, finding his feet after a year out. Difficult to see it winning.

Oodachee 10-9-12 8th in the Kim Muir. A winner of lots of low grade events in Ireland and I can’t see him troubling the bookies in this.

Kings Advocate 9-9-11 Missing for nearly 2 years and therefore hasn’t run in enough chases or gained any decent scalps. Leave it.

Out The Black 11-9-10 Good stayer who is probably just not good enough for this. Won’t get in anyway.

Dun Doire 10-9-10 Punted into 11/1 in 2006. Hasn’t completed in 3 National starts and is now a shadow of his former self. Obviously passes all the trends but 1 win in 3 years tells its own story.

Without A Doubt 10-9-10 Without the 3 mile win needed and hasn’t got the class to win this I’m afraid.

Le Toscan 9-9-10 Its an inexperienced French-bred, without a quality win or one over the required 3 mile trend. Avoid like Le plague.

Puntal 13-9-10 Pulled-up in the Cross-Country Chase at Cheltenham. This French-bred was a fantastic 6th in 2006 @ 66/1 after over a year off. Done nothing since and won’t be getting involved at 13 years old.

Alexanderthegreat 11-9-7 Hasn’t won a good race and looks a bit long in the tooth to be starting now. Was pretty unlucky in the Kim Muir, as he had nowhere to go when a horse fell in front. Consistent when completing, but last and biggest win was in 2007.

Milan Deux Mille 7-9-7 This French-bred is only 7 and hasn’t yet won over 3 miles or won a £17,000 race yet. Avoid.

Sandhurst 9-9-5 Inexperienced and therefore hasn’t won a £17,000 race yet. Pulled up in the Exeter heavy ground marathon slog in March (Lysander 3rd). Won’t get round.

Malko De Beaumont 9-9-4 French-bred, however passes all other trends.

Lord Killeshanra 10-9-4 Likeable horse who’s only win came in a Novice Chase in 2005. Leave alone.

Lysander 10-9-4 Very consistent, but all low grade events. Hasn’t the class to win this.

Pass Me By 10-9-2 Passes the stats but not good enough for this.

Mont Misere 13-9-1 Haha. This is a joke right. A 13 year old, without the class or the stamina that is also French. Would need 5 legs just to keep up. Ps.. Last of 4 on Tuesday at Wetherby.

Trends:
Weight: The stats on weight are skewed now as the 40 horses running are of better quality than before. The bottom weight is now well above the 10-0 minimum and will probably carry 10-5, where previously they would have been out of the handicap. So a horse carrying over 11st can now win, but it is very unlikely that one carrying more than 11-5 will. Hedgehunter won with 11-1 in 2005 and Rhyme ‘n’ Reason won in 1988 (11-0). Red Rum (11-8) being the only one to win carrying over the 11-5 threshold in the last 40 years. Horses with big weights can still get placed, Hedgehunter in 2006 and Royal Auclair in 2005 both carried 11-12 & 11-10 to 2nd place.
Horses removed (7): Cloudy Lane, Chelsea Harbour, Snowy Morning, Knowhere, Comply Or Die, Ollie Magern, Stan

Age: The ideal age for a national winner is 8-12 years old. Youngsters don’t have the stamina to win it and older horses don’t have the speed. No 7yo has won since Bogskar in 1940, with Sergeant Murphy the last 13yo to win in 1923.
Horses removed (7): Eurotrek, Big Fella Thanks, Can’t Buy Time, Pomme Tiepy, Puntal, Milan Deux Mille, Mont Misere

Distance: 4 miles 4 furlongs is the ultimate stamina test. We have to look at horses that have winning form over 3 miles if they are going to win this. Gay Trip (1970) was the last winner who hadn’t previously won over 3m or more.
Horses Removed (12): Musica Bella, Arteea, Cerium, Maljimar, Iron Man, Bible Lord, Nadover, Pak Jack, Seymour Weld, Kings Advocate, Le Toscan, Without A Doubt

Experience: 40 horses over big fences for over 4 miles. Young pups without the necessary jumping experience have problems. In the last 10 years every winner had at least 10 jump races under his belt.
Horses Removed (6): Offshore Account, Fleet Street, Himalayan Trail, Companero, In The Loop, Sandhurst

Class: Bad horses don’t win good races. Every winner in the last 10 years had been placed in a graded chase and won a race of £17k+ in value.
Horses Removed (17): Brooklyn Brownie, Idle Talk, Bagan, Beat The Boys, Dix Villez, Flintoff, Patsy Hall, Nine De Sivola, Oodachee, Out The Black, Alexanderthegreat, Lord Killeshanra, Lysander, Kilbeggan Blade, Mattock Ranger, Niche Market, Tom Sayers

French-breds: French-bred’s have a poor record in the race (no winner since 1909). In France, there are very few long-distance races and therefore the horses are bred to run over shorter distances. The French fences are less testing too. The quality is improving and one-day this stat will be broken so I would rather couple it with another before ruling out completely.
Horses Removed (7): My Will (ran at Cheltenham), Mon Mome (66/1 shot), Butler’s Cabin (ran at Cheltenham), Golden Flight (ran at Cheltenham), L’Ami (ran at Cheltenham), Kelami (no win over 3m+ since 2005), Malko De Beaumont (200/1 shot)

Price: No 50/1 winner since Last Suspect in 1985. Am going to rule out horses greater than 66/1.
Horses Removed (5):Zabenz 150/1 (no run for nearly 2 years), Dun Doire 100/1 (not rated between 136-157, needs it soft), Reveillez 100/1 (back this season after 2 years off, nothing to suggest he can win this judging by his comeback runs), Fundamentalist 150/1 (Passes the trends, however barely and for an older horse, hasn’t run much at marathon distances), Pass Me By 200/1 (passes trends but not really good enough)

Horses Left (12):
Black Apalachi 16/1 (Will need some rain. Has never won without ‘soft’ in the going. Would have a chance otherwise)
Hear The Echo 16/1 (War Of Attrition get pulled out of the race, thus keeping his stable-mate at a nice weight. Hmmm. However this could be Ireland’s best chance this year, but weight must be an issue)
Preists Leap 66/1 (would love the rain, won’t be good enough otherwise.)
State Of Play 14/1 (A little too much weight for an ideal bet, however It’s tempting to think it has a chance. Only 2 runs this season and none since the turn of the year is a negative)
Silver Birch 66/1 (2 runs in P2Ps since National win in 2007. Not the profile to win this now)
Parsons Legacy 20/1 (Backed in from 40/1 on Tuesday morning and it’s easy to see why as he finished 3rd to Hot Weld in the Scottish National in 2007. Will appreciate the good ground more than others.)
Battlecry 50/1 (£17k, 3m hurdle win @ Doncaster in Jan 2008 only success in either category, doesn’t win in big fields. Pass)
Cornish Sett 33/1 (12th last year but improved since. Runner-up whilst staying on in the Welsh National at Christmas, good chance of a place at a big price).
Darkness 22/1 (Another that doesn’t run well in big fields, otherwise a very consistent performer. Only 1 win in over 3 years.)
Irish Invader 25/1 (fairly prolific of late, but hasn’t beaten too much in those races. Only 1 run at 3m1f or more is a negative)
Rambling Minster 11/1 (Hadn’t done too much, but been a revelation since turn of year, winning twice in decent contests i n Jan and Feb)
Southern Vic 25/1 (no win since 2006, prolific in Ireland, in 2004-05. All wins on soft or heavy.)

6 of the Best:
Hear The Echo @ 16/1
State Of Play @ 14/1
Parsons Legacy @ 20/1
Cornish Sett @ 33/1
Irish Invader @ 25/1
Rambling Minster @ 11/1