Grand National 2019 - Horse Ratings

Anibale Fly  (16/1)  ****

A staying on 4^th last year, after a good staying on 3^rd in the Gold Cup. This year he stayed on for 2^nd in the Gold Cup, so perhaps he’ll be ‘staying on’ late to win. Too high in the weights really, but one to seriously consider.

Valtor   (80/1)  **

Over from France and won on debut for Nicky Henderson, but disappointed when last seen in January. Has had 33 starts now and is very high in the weights on what his achieved so far and with just the bare win over 3 miles, he is one to ignore.

Tiger Roll  (9/2 fav)  ****

Last year’s winner, and has had a pretty good year so far. He’s just a little high in the weights and is obviously far too short in the market, but I’ll be happy if he won again.

Outlander  (125/1)  ***

Former Grade 1 winner, but has never won past the bare 3 miles. Doesn’t look the type for this.

Don Poli  (125/1)  ****

Former Gold Cup 3^rd in 2016, but lost his way since then. Well beaten by Jury Duty last time. Still high in the weights and hard to see why he would feature.

Go Conquer  (50/1)  ***

Off since January and no attempts past the bare 3 miles. Can’t be backed.

Mala Beach   (80/1)  ****

Beaten by Jury Duty last time (6lbs worse off now as well). Just 2 starts this year and only attempt in a National he was pulled up in Ireland in 2016.

Minella Rocco  (40/1)  ****

Not the greatest jumper, but has placed in a Gold Cup, the year after winning the 4 miler at the Festival. But out of sorts ever since and can’t be trusted.

Lake View Lad  (16/1)  ***

Yet to win past the old ‘3 miles’ and we are still north of the old 11 stone mark. No experience of marathon trips, but he stayed on well over 3m 1f at Cheltenham, to suggest that he could be up for a place.

Pleasant Company  (20/1)  ***

Almost won it last year, and would have in another 50 yards. He’s weighted to beat Tiger Roll this year. His record in the race is now 9^th and 2^nd. His preparation has been exactly the same this season as last (bloody awful). His 2 runs this season have been a 15^th and 11^th and he’s been off since January. Same as last year (14^th & p/up) and now he is the wrong side of 11 stone. Those are the bare facts. But, but, but….. he almost won, is 2lbs better off than Tiger Roll AND is 5 times the price.

Ballyoptic  (40/1)  ***

The last horse over 11 stone. He’s only had 9 chase starts and is out of form this season. On the plus side he was neaten a nose in last season’s Scottish National, and was 6^th in the Welsh National at Christmas. But a fall and pulled up complete the form of his last 4 races.

Dounikos  (33/1)  *****

Announced himself as a possible winner of this with a good win in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown. One of the Gordon Elliott battalion in this as every reason to think he’ll run well. If you are looking to oppose him he’s just the 10 chase starts, fell 2 runs ago in January, and his form last spring was PPP. But who’s opposing him.

Rathvinden  (10/1)  ****

Winner of last season’s 4 miler at Cheltenham, seen just the once since then, when beating (Valseur Lido, Outlander and Magic Of Light). That is a massive worry, all winners have a busy campaign.

One For Arthur  (28/1)  ****

Winner in 2017. Has unseated in both of his races this season. One to respect but also one to pass over.

Rock The Kasbah  (18/1)  *****

Not seen since December, that has to be a major worry. Whether that’s down to a niggling injury or the flu epidemic we don’t know. Just a little hurdles prep or something would have made him red-hot for me. 
 

Warriors Tale  (125/1)  ***

Grand Sefton winner over these fences in December, not much on offer since. Yet to win over 3 miles and is UK-Bred if you want something else to beat him with.

Regal Encore  (66/1)  ***

Was 8^th in 2017. Only other experience of a trip was at Sandown last season where he was pulled-up Has won over just 3 and has only 2 starts this season.

Magic Of Light  (125/1)  ****

This mare is yet to win over 3 miles or more and yet to face a trip as daunting as this. I like her, just not in this.

A Toi Phil  (80/1)  ***

Actually over-raced this season (7 times) and with no winning form past 3 miles it’s hard to think he’ll be finishing this.

Jury Duty  (16/1)  *****

Lovely profile, bang in form, only slight-blemish is a £23k Chase win (who cares) and nothing at a trip. However he won his only start at 3m 2f and fell 2 out when beaten in Rathvinden’s renewal of the 4 miler. Big chance.

Noble Endeavor  (50/1)  ***

Just 2 starts this season. His 9^th in the Becher Chase and 10^th at Cheltenham add to his form woes.

Decent 6^th in the 2017 Irish National and a fall (when doing ok) in the 2016 4 miler at Cheltenham, suggest that he could outrun his odds.

Monbeg Notorious  (66/1)  ****

Well beaten this season by Dounikos. Out of form. 8^th in last season’s Irish National, but has to be ignored in this.

Ramses De Teillee  (25/1)  ****

Lots of boxes ticked for this 7 year old suggests that next year maybe the year. 2 good seconds in the Welsh National and Haydock’s Grand National Trial give him that profile. He has yet to win past the 3 miles. One day a 7yo will win again, and he is one of the more likely ones, but until they do they can’t be backed.

Tea For Two   (50/1)  ***

British-bred, Grade 1 winner in 2017’s Betway Bowl. His lack of form could have come from a 6^th in the King George, but worryingly it also comes from failing to complete in a Class 2 Handicap and the Cross Country at Cheltenham. Unproven past about 3 miles, he could surprise, and is nicely weighted on his back-class, but he doesn’t scream National winner to me.

Just A Par  (150/1)  ***

This 12 year old has been 15^th and 14^th in 2 Grand Nationals, so it’s hard to think he’s going to suddenly improve now. His only run of the season was back in the Becher Chase in December and he is well out of form.

Step Back  (25/1)  ***

Beat Rock The Kasbah at Sandown last season, but both runs this season have been disappointing. Hasn’t been seen since early January and is very inexperienced with just 6 chase starts.

Ultragold  (66/1)  ***

Loves the fences, winning the last 2 Topham renewals over 2m 5f. His 3^rd in the Becher Chase (3m2) this season looks about his limit in terms of distance though as he’s been beaten in both his attempts over further since. His 39 starts are also a little too many for the winner of this race.

Blow By Blow  (150/1)  *

Nothing’s gone right since his chase debut in October. Completely out of sorts in 4 of his 6 runs since, including form of P6P recently (last of 6 too). So no form past 3 miles (if even 3 miles) and as his only win came was only worth £11k.

Up For Review   (40/1)  **

Just the 7 stars so far and only 2 runs in the season proper. Yet to win over 3 miles and no experience of a trip. Just an £8k novice chase win to his name, so negatives all over the place.

Singlefarmpayment  (40/1)  ****

British-bred, runs well without winning, He was beaten into 4^th behind Rock The Kasbah over 3m31/2f this season. That was his only try at a trip so not without hope. But I want a horse that looks like it may win a Grand National as he doesn’t shout it to me.

Vieux Lion Rouge  (50/1)  *****

Perfect on the trends. He’s been 7^th, 6^th and 9^th in the last 3 Grand Nationals, but he’s pulled-up in his last 2 runs and in his 2^nd before that, he was miles back, and ridden, before staying on to get 2^nd behind Walk In the Mill. I don’t like his form and I don’t like the fact he hasn’t placed in either of the last 2 nationals (first one he was a 7yo). Argghh.

Valseur Lido  (80/1)  *****

8^th last year, he’s 12lbs lower in the handicap this year. Mainly because he’s been pretty rotten. His 16 length beating into 3^rd by Rathvinden 2 runs ago gets him to 5 stars. As it was his only start at a trip last year there may be more to come, but he was still beaten 56 lengths.

Vintage Clouds  (14/1)  ****

He ran well at Cheltenham and has placed form in the Welsh National. Doesn’t always jump well but is looking to give owner Trevor Hemmings his 3^rd win in the race after Hedgehunter (2005) and Ballabriggs (2011). His slight downsides are nothing to worry about and he has place chances.

General Principle  (40/1)  *****

Irish Grand National winner, didn't look the winner, but took advantage of some carnage at the last in that. He’s not perfection because his RP rating is only 149 (not 150). Could have jumped better at Cheltenham (pulled up).

Livelovelaugh   (80/1)  **

Just 7 starts so far and no form past 3 miles. Only won an 8k novice chase and not achieved a RPR good enough yet.

Walk In The Mill  (28/1)  ****

His win in the Becher Chase didn’t give him a good enough RPR to win this. That was the furthest he’d run, so stamina taken on trust.

Folsom Blue   (80/1)  ***

This 12 year old is still to achieve an RPR of greater than 148 in any of his 31 runs. Form a bit average too with a 6^th in the Uttoxeter Midlands National last time.

Captain Redbeard  (66/1)  ****

Unseated early on last year. Yet to win at 3 miles or look like a stayer, and his biggest win was at Kelso (£16k) in a match with Definitly Red.

Bless The Wings  (150/1)  ***

Ran really well for 3^rd last year as a 13 year old , so obviously that is a major problem this year. 51 starts now and the years look to have caught up with him this season with a 5^th place being his best.

Joe Farrell  (20/1)  ****

Just the 2 runs this season, both within the last 5 weeks (last ran only 14 days ago). He’s still inexperienced with 8 starts, but that didn't stop him winning the Scottish Grand National last spring.

SELECTIONS
With the rain softened ground likely to dry out through the day, we have managed to get it down to the 4 selections. I expect Tiger Roll to go close, but at his price he has to be taken on. If you do fancy him, the bookies will try and get him, so expect quoted of 11/2 in the morning. Anyway, on to our picks.

ANIBALE FLY @ 16/1, (blacktype, 888bet - 6 places; skybet, betvictor 5pl)
Solid 4th last year and a similar route this season, he's the quality in the race and should run well again.

DOUNIKOS @ 33/1, Paddypower, betvictor - 6 places; Bet365, Skybet 5pl)
One of the Gordon Elliott battalion, but has a better chance than most. Jack Kennedy is on board and if he gets round he has a good chance.

JURY DUTY  @ 18/1, Betfred, totesport - 6 places
Robbie Power on board for Gordon Elliott, but at least he's not in Maroon and White, so you'll be able to see him.. Very consistent and the drying ground will help him.

PLEASANT COMPANY @ 20/1, Ladbrokes, Coral - 6 places, Bet365 5 places
He doesn't have the profile of a winner, but he's weighted to bear Tiger Roll and has exactly the same preparation as last year. Ruby Walsh is not on board, otherwise he'd be a lot shorter I think. He'd be a trends buster and if he's in a battle with one of the above, then I'll be supporting the trends!


Of the others, I'd be tempted with Rock The Kasbah, but he's been off since December and I don't like that in a National horse. Vintage Clouds has a good profile, but he does make mistakes and can hit a flat spot in his races. His price is short enough now. Vieux Lion Rouge has the perfect profile, but has been here before, he may pick up a place in 5th or 6th, but I don't think he can win. One For Arthur has failed to complete in his 2 comeback runs, he could win again, but not with my money. Ruby Walsh's mount, Rathvinden, has just the 1 run this season, I hope he doesn't win, but he is feared.

Grand National 2019 - Trends Analysis

Tiger Roll was the perfect fit last year. I had reservations about the ground as he’d never run on soft or worse before. (it was heavy). 5 minutes before the off I backed him to win as a fear of missing out bet. This year he is currently 4/1 favourite. Ridiculous really, but it makes other horses bigger than they should be.

The trends continue to be pretty strong.

Age - Horses aged 8-12.

No horse outside of this age range has won a Grand National since 1940 when Bogskar (aged 7) took the honours. The last horse older than 12 was Sergeant Murphy (aged 13) who won in 1923. Horses younger than 7 are now prevented from competing, they couldn't win anyway and need protecting from over-enthusiastic trainers and owners.

The last 10 winners were all aged between 8 and 11 years old. Amberleigh House won well as a 12 year old in 2004, the only one that old since 1995, however horses outside the 8-11 age range have just 3 places from 86 runners since then.

10 Year Trends (won-placed-runners)

aged 7 0-0-22

aged 8 3-6-65

aged 9 2-8-112

aged 10 2-8-100

aged 11 3-3-56

aged 12 0-1-29

aged 13 0-2-10

aged 14 0-0-2

Distance Win - Winning form over at least 3 miles, preferably 3m1f+

Rule The World was a maiden when winning in 2016. He has finished 2nd in the Irish Grand National the season before, so had no stamina problems, just race winning ones.

Previously on Grand National blog:

* Not since Gay Trip won the race in 1970 has the winner previously not won a race over at least 3 miles. It seems logical that if you haven't won a race at 3 miles or more, you won't win one at 4m 21/2f.

* Apart from 2016 when Rule The World was a maiden (albeit with marathon placed form).

To go a bit further, 15 of the previous 16 winners had won a chase over 3m 1/2f or more, and 12 of the last 15 had a top 3 finish over 3m 21/2f or further. The fences may be 'easier' and the distance 'shorter' (one through moving the start 200yds and the other when all racecourses were remeasured) but stamina is still extremely important at a marathon trip.

Weight Carried

Only 3 horses since 1983 had carried more than 11 stone 1lb. Those 3 have come since 2010, possibly due to the fences being a bit easier and the race shorter. However in the last 5 renewals, very few horses with weight were up there at the business end.

In 2013 only 1 horse within 50 lengths carried more than 11st.

In 2014 only 1 horse within 115 lengths carried more than 11st.

In 2015 only 1 horse within 90 lengths carried more than 11st. Excluding the winner.

In 2016 no horse within 147 lengths carried more than 11st 1lb. The ground was soft.

In 2017 no horse within 66 lengths carried more than 11st 1lb.

In 2018 only 1 horse within 55 lengths carried more than 11st 1lb. The ground was heavy.

In total, just 5 horses were within 523 lengths of the winner in the last 6 years. So low weights are still preferred.

Race Fitness - Must have run within the previous 56 days

One For Arthur was off for 84 days. As we said above, every winner was off for a maximum of 56 days since at least 1988. Training methods are better now, so maybe something will win after even further off soon, but it will still pay to side with race fit horses.

Rough Quest had a break of only 16 days in 1996.

Form - Had finished in the first 3 in one of his last 3 starts.

Every horse needs to be in some sort of form, not necessarily winning form as we don't want that pesky handicapper finding us out do we. Even the hopelessly out of form 100/1 shot, Mon Mome, in 2009, managed a 2nd in the January of that year. Of course Auroras Encore (2013) wasn't placed in his previous 7 races to throw that out of the window but he'd run well in some decent Graded Handicaps. His last form was the previous April with a quality 2nd in the Scottish National. All other winners since 1988 had top 3 form.

Experience - Have run in at least 9 Chases

Horses need good jumping experience to win the Grand National. Every winner since Miinnehoma (9 Chase races) in 1994 has run in at least 10 Chases. You may want to give those with 9 races under their belt, the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't want to be affording others the same.

Class - Have won a chase worth at least £17,000

You still need to be classy enough to win the National. Bad horses still don't win. The horses at the lower end of the handicap will need to be scrutinised for this trend. Pineau De Reu won a £13,000 race, so leeway can be given if they tick most of the other boxes, but every other winner since Party Politics in 1992 had won a £17,000 Chase. (Apart from Rule The World, who ran in 7 chases worth £40k or more, and possibly would have won the Galway Plate if he hadn't stumbled between the last 2 fences).

Season Runs - Have raced between 3 and 6 times since August

Missed prep races, setbacks in training, bad planning and over-raced horses will find it tough to win the Grand National. This year we’ve had an unseasonally warm winter and an equine influenza out break to give yet more excuses.

Miinnehoma had only 2 races in the 1993-94 season before his win. Every winner since had 4-6 runs, until Ballabriggs (with 3) broke that, but was so strong on all the other trends he was a must bet. One For Arthur (3) added to the 3 run list (now 2).

We are looking for horses that have been kept ticking over throughout the season without going over the top.

Conclusion: Winning Profile

Aged 8-12

Won over 3 miles or more over fences

Top 3 finish in a 3¼ mile Chase

Last run between 20-84 days ago

9+ Chases

Won a race worth more than £13k to the winner

Between 3-6 runs since August

If you want to refine it further

'Perfect' Profile

Aged 8 to 11

Won a 3m 1f+ Chase

Top 3 in a 3m 4f+ Chase

Carrying less than 11-02

Last run between 20-56 days ago

10+ Chases

Won a race worth more than £29k to the winner

Between 4-6 runs since August

Lastly, the last few years, Bet365 have been giving half of total stakes back on each way bets (up to £125). You must have had an account with them by the the wednesday to qualify. There's no guarantee that they will do the same this year, but it's worth opening an account with them if you don't have one already.