Grand National 2022 - Runners and Selections (updated to final field)

1 Minella Times 9-11-10 *** 11/1

Lasy year’s winner. Up 15lbs now and very unlikely to repeat off top weight. Was in great form last season too, has just 2 runs this season and yet to finish.

2 Delta Work 9-11-09 **** 9/1

Won the Cross Country at Cheltenham. That was on heavy ground and probably took plenty out of him. Has the class to win off this rating and was only 5/1 to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2021. I’m just going to oppose him as this is still a huge weight to lug around.

3 School Boy Hours (Res) 9-10-05 *** 25/1

Not run to a standard the usual winner would have (Best RPR of 147). Only 2 races this year and not raced at a trip. People do fancy him, but not for me.

4 Any Second Now 10-11-08 **** 9/1

Third last year, but up 7lbs this year. Too high in the weights for me, to win especially.

5 Run Wild Fred 8-11-07 **** 22/1

Just the one chase win so far (3m), so very vulnerable for win purposes. 2^nd in last year’s Irish National, probably should have won, but not fluent the last 2 fences. Bit one paced, but should stay all day, but as I’ve said, doesn’t win very often and will be carrying a bit too much weight.

6 Lostintranslation 10-11-06 *** 66/1

Won this season over 2m 5f but out of form since. Doesn’t seem like a typical National horse. Did manage a 3^rd in the 2020 Cheltenham Gold Cup behind Santini, but those days are probably behind him. A little too high in the weights for most horses, can’t see him up there.

7 Brahma Bull 11-11-06 **** 80/1

Doesn’t really look the sort to win this. A second unseat in his chase career last time means he can’t be trusted and doesn’t strike me as a National horse. Still a little high in the weights. He was pretty consisent before his last 2 runs. Not the worst 80/1 shot in the world.

8 Burrows Saint 9-11-05 ***** 22/1

4^th last year, and was my big tip. Faded up the run-in and I was grateful for the place. Runs off the same mark this year so place chances again if as good. His run last time is a massive worry, beaten 42 lengths as favourite.

9 Mount Ida 8-11-05 *** 33/1

Mare who looked the part winning the Kim Muir from out of the back at Cheltenham in 2021. Trouble is she doesn’t like jumping left handed, even in that Kim Muir win she wasn’t good at all and she won’t be able to do it round here. Only 8 chase starts.

10 Longhouse Poet 8-11-04 *** 16/1

Won the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park in February, which is a nice one to bag. However he has only 6 runs under his belt and that is a big negative. He’s also yet to prove he can stay this far and the wrong side of 11 stone. Hopefully he learns from the experience and could easily win this in the future, especially if they can drop him a few lbs for next year.

11 Fiddlerontheroof 8-11-04 *** 16/1

Would like to be more positive about him. Really good 2^nd in the Ladbroke Trophy in November. Past winners have competed there. But little form at a trip, and yet to win a decent chase in his career. Still a shade too high in the weights for my liking.

12 Two For Gold 9-11-03 **** 40/1

Passes plenty of the main trends but doesn’t look like an out and out stayer to me. Definitely in form but unseated at Canal Turn on only try over the fences in last year’s Topham Chase. Just the wrong side of the weight line too.

13 Santini 10-11-02 **** 40/1

2^nd in ther Gold Cup 2 seasons ago. Not the same force anymore and one to ignore. Ok you need more. While I don’t care too much that he’s British-bred, he is and only 1 winner since 2000 has been. He also is a little high in the weights, and hasn’t any proven staying chase form.

14 Samcro 10-11-01 *** 80/1

Bit of an enigma now and best days are behind him. Grade 1 Cheltenham winner (2m 4f) only in 2020, but not really the staying type, and a little high in the weights.

15 Escaria Ten 8-11-01 ** 14/1

Only 7 starts, just the 2 runs this season. Only win at a low level and yet to prove he’ll stay this far. Maybe next year.

16 Good Boy Bobby 9-10-13 **** 33/1

Won the Rowland Meyrick Chase on Boxing Day. That’s about as far as he’s gone in his career so far, so this will be unknown. The right side of 11 stone. But others will be more suited for this.

17 Romain De Senam (Res) 10-10-05 ** 150/1

Plenty of Chase staers (32), but just the one run this season, in the Midlands National (pulled-up). Yet to win over 3 miles or more and won’t stay the trip.

18 Coko Beach 7-10-13 **** 66/1

Just a 7 year old and badly out of form so easy to pass over. Plenty of time for him.

19 De Rasher Counter 10-10-12 **** 40/1

I backed him 30 months ago in the Ladbroke Trophy. Only been seen 4 times since. His 3 chases starts have been 4^th (of 6, beaten 33L), Pulled-up and 4^th (of 5, beaten 34L) He’s now back to that winning mark of 149. But just the noe start this season is very off-putting. He’s British-bred and he’s yet to taste a trip this far. Love him as a horse, but not for this.

20 Kildisart 10-10-11 **** 40/1

Great 4^th last time out in his first run for 462 days. The 1 run is a problem. Ultra-consistent at about 3 miles, so no marathon form.

21 Discorama 9-10-11 *** 40/1

Never though of him as a Grand National horse but did finish 7^th last year. Just 2 runs this season and with only 1 small Chase win behind him (over 2m 3f) fails too many trends to consider for win purposes.

22 Top Ville Ben 10-10-11 **** 80/1

Fell here in the Becher Chase on his only taste of the fences. Fails a couple of mini-trends, but all form is around 3 miles, so one to ignore for win purposes.

23 Enjoy D’Allen 8-10-11 **** 14/1

Stayed on well to finish 3rd in last year’s Irish National. Yet to win over this far (won a Point-to-Point), nor a race worth too much. Not for me this year.

24 Anibale Fly 12-10-11 **** 50/1

Placed twice in this, but now a 12 year old, and as he hasn’t won by now, he’s unlikely to do so now (pulled-up last year). Completely out of form as well, so this may be his last race.

25 Dingo Dollar 10-10-11 **** 66/1

Good 2^nd behind Mighty Thunder in the Scottish National last year, but poor effort over these fences in December 2020. Lack of a big race win is holding him back little winning form over further than 3 miles.

26 Frewheelin Dylan 10-10-10 *** 66/1

Won the Irish National at 150/1 last Easter Monday. Led fromn the front and they couldn’t get past him. Hasn’t finished a race in his 2 starts this season proper, though one was a Cross Country at Cheltenham and the other a hurdle, so excuses there. He’s a big price but on his day he’s proven himself before. He’s been off for 90 days now (won the IGN off of 174 day break though). He’s the first of the horses to fall under the 150 Best RPR rating threshhold, at 149.

27 Class Conti 10-10-10 *** 150/1

15^th last year. Dreadful this season. Yet to prove he stays for this. Ignore.

28 Noble Yeats 7-10-10 * 40/1

7 year old with just 7 chase starts, no marathon form either. Just a £7k chase win and that was over 2m 3f. Ignore.

29 Mighty Thunder 9-10-10 **** 40/1

Scottish National winner in 2021. Failed to finish his last 2 races. Was in much better form last year too. Can forgive him having 9 chase starts. British-bred. Something to prove now.

30 Cloth Cap 10-10-10 ***** 25/1

Favourite last year (pulled-up) after romping home in the Ladbroke Trophy. He basically ticks the right boxes, but has really struggled under his lofty rating since that win. I think he’s too risky.

31 Snow Leopardess 10-10-09 **** 8/1 fav

Well, she’s all the rage. Halved in price over the last few days. She is a mare, a brood-mare at that. She’s GB-Bred. Just 9 Chase starts. She’ll be the story of the National if she wins but she’s just too short now.

32 Agusta Gold 9-10-09 **** 80/1

The 3^rd mare in the race. RPR of 144 at her best. She was really consistent last season, but hasn’t sparkled since running down the field in last years Irish National. Was 2^nd last time out, but little to get excited about. Bothe her wins are over shorter.

33 Commodore (Res) 10-10-05 *** 40/1

Yet to achieve a RPR of 150 or more. Just the one start this season, and has been off for 4 months. However he did win that start in December after 309 days off. It was over 3m 2f at Cheltenham by 15 lengths. Too many holes in his profile to win this…… I think.

34 Deise Aba 9-10-08 ***** 100/1

The only trend he fails is his best RPR of 147. Was 2^nd at Sandown in the “London National” in December. Hmmm…. Place chances or outclassed. Can’t decide.

35 Blaklion 13-10-08 **** 50/1

Fantastic warrior over the years, carried my money back in 2017. Looked all over the winner 3 out, but it’s a long way home and he finished 4^th. Brought down in 2018, then came back for some more last year to finish a fantastic 6^th. His chance was all those years ago I’m afraid and this 13 year old must be passed over now. British-bred another slight negative.

36 Poker Party 10-10-08 **** 100/1

Pulled-up in the Cheltenham Cross Country. Badly out of form since a 666 day break. Might tick a lot of boxes, but unlikely to stay this far.

37 Death Duty 11-10-07 ***** 40/1

Perfect on trends. Decent 6^th in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham. That’s race is a good pointer to this in the past. Been around for ages but not too many miles on the clock. Former Grade 1 Chase winner in his youth. Won the Irish Trial for this. Rarely runs on ground as quick as it’s forecast. 5^th and 6^th (at Cheltenham) when he has. He will stay but they may be too fast for him.

38 Domaine De L’Isle 9-10-07 **** 100/1

Beaten by 36 lengths in the Eider Chase last time. Not quite good enough on RPR so far and not proven at a marathon trip so far.

39 Eclair Surf 8-10-06 ***** 14/1

Just 9 starts. That fine, I’ll let him have that. Passes everything else. Won over 3m 5f in January, then a great 2^nd to Win My Wings in the Eider Chase at Newcastle. Gave him 11lbs that day for a 1 ¾ L beating. Win My Wings just won the Scottish National by 5 lengths (4^th was 24L behind). A Player.

40 Fortescue 8-10-06 **** 33/1

Really good win (stayed on well) at Ascot last time. He is GB-bred, winning chase form at only 3 miles. No marathon experience so far, but the sort to give you a good run for your money.

CONCLUSION

I Usually wait until the morning of the race, where you will get the best prices. However I will have to put this up as I’m afraid my first selection will not be the price it is later today.

The main selection is ECLAIR SURF. He’s 14/1 (888bet, betvictor, Coral, Ladbrokes) and 12/1 everywhere else. If he’s tipped by Pricewise or Hugh Taylor, he won’t be that tonight.

The way the Win My Wings won his Scottish National last week suggests that Eclair Surf is well handicapped on the form of the Eider Chase. Giving him 11lbs, he was just 1 ¾ lengths back and they were clear of the third place.

Win My Wings then goes out in the Scottish National and beats her stablemate Kitty’s Light by 7 lengths, Major Dundee back in third (12 lengths) and the rest 24 lengths and further back than the winner.

Then there’s the Classic Chase at Warwick the run before, where Eclair Surf dominates from the front, beating his rivals by 13 lengths. In 4^th was Corach Rambler, who won the Unibet Chase at Cheltenham last month.

I will update the page with 2-3 other selections on saturday morning, but had to publish this early.

11^th Jan, Exeter - WIN MY WINGS takes flight late on to win a race of ever-changing fortunes - Racing TV - YouTube

15^th Jan, Warwick - ECLAIR SURF dominates £100,000 Classic Chase at Warwick - YouTube

26^th Feb, Newcastle - ATR Player | Replay | Saturday 26 Feb 2022 | 15:15 | Newcastle | At The Races

2^nd Apr, Ayr - Wow! WIN MY WINGS pulverises her rivals to win the 2022 Scottish Grand National! - Racing TV - YouTube

UPDATE:

3 Reserves run, they aren’t worth considering.

I’ve a shortlist of 5 horses, all should stay and are going to be happy on the drying ground. There is a worry that with the faster ground something will stay on that probably shouldn’t be there.

Shortlist:

Run Wild Fred (16/1) – Doesn’t win, but should stay. Ground will be fine maybe too slow.

Burrows Saint (25/1) – Placed last year. Runs off the same mark.

Mighty Thunder (40/1) – Great last year, poor this year, may have a bit of Auroras Encore about him but hope not expectation.

Cloth Cap (28/1) – Favourite last year, and flopped. Must run better this year and the pressure is off. Now 1lb lower than his last winning mark.

Eclair Surf (NAP) – See above.

I really only want to be on Eclair Surf, but will probably back the other 4 at nice prices tomorrow.

As always , good luck and don't forget to take a price on your selections if you are in a shop.

Grand National Trends 2022

 

Grand National 2022 - Trends Analysis

Minella Times (11/1) won last years renewal, and in Rachel Blackmore we had the first female jockey win the event. I couldn’t have the horse myself, he hadn’t won over 3 miles or more for starters (2m6f) thus suggesting he wasn’t the stayer you want for this normally. This year he is now top weight and should find it very difficult to repeat the feat.

Of course, Tiger Roll, should be running to win his 3^rd Grand National, but as the owners spat their dummy out for the 2^nd year running, he is now retired after they also spoilt their own retirenent party but winning with Delta Work.

Many of the trends continue to look pretty strong and we will continue to use them until they are broken

Age - Horses aged 8-12.

No horse outside of this age range has won a Grand National since 1940 when Bogskar (aged 7) took the honours. The last horse older than 12 was Sergeant Murphy (aged 13) who won in 1923. Horses younger than 7 are now prevented from competing, they couldn't win anyway and need protecting from over-enthusiastic trainers and owners.

The last 16 winners were all aged between 8 and 11 years old. Amberleigh House won well as a 12 year old in 2004, the only one that old since 1995, however horses outside the 8-11 age range have just 3 places from 58 runners in the last 10 years.

10 Year Trends (won-placed-runners) – 2020 not run of course.

aged 7 0-0-18

aged 8 4-7-63

aged 9 2-8-99

aged 10 0-6-83

aged 11 3-3-53

aged 12 0-1-29

aged 13 0-2-8

aged 14 0-0-3

Distance Win - Winning form over at least 3 miles, preferably 3m1f+

Last year Minella Times was the second horse not to have won a Chase over 3 miles. * since Gay Trip in 1970. Really frustrating that that stat has been broken.

Rule The World was a maiden when winning in 2016. He has finished 2nd in the Irish Grand National the season before, so had no stamina problems, just race winning ones.

Previously on Grand National blog:

* Not since Gay Trip won the race in 1970 has the winner previously not won a race over at least 3 miles. It seems logical that if you haven't won a race at 3 miles or more, you won't win one at 4m 21/2f.

To go a bit further, 15 of the previous 17 winners had won a chase over 3m 1f or more, and 15 of the last 17 had a top 3 finish over 3m 21/2f or further. The fences may be 'easier' and the distance 'shorter' but stamina is still extremely important at a marathon trip.

Weight Carried

Only 4 horses since 1983 had carried more than 11 stone 1lb. All 4 have come since the 2010 renewal, possibly due to the fences being a bit easier and the race shorter. However in the last 5 renewals, very few horses with weight were up there at the business end.

In 2013 only 1 horse within 50 lengths carried more than 11st.

In 2014 only 1 horse within 115 lengths carried more than 11st.

In 2015 only 1 horse within 90 lengths carried more than 11st. Excluding the winner.

In 2016 no horse within 147 lengths carried more than 11st 1lb. The ground was soft.

In 2017 no horse within 66 lengths carried more than 11st 1lb.

In 2018 only 1 horse within 55 lengths carried more than 11st 1lb. The ground was heavy.

In 2019 4 horses ran within 31 lengths of the winner, carrying more than 11st. Excluding the winner

In 2021 no horses finished carrying more than 10st 13lb.

In total, just 10 horses were within 554 lengths of the winner in the last 8 years. This excludes the 2021 race (128 lengths first to last) So low weights are still preferred.

Race Fitness - Must have run within the previous 62 days.

One For Arthur was off for 84 days. As we said above, every winner was off for a maximum of 62 days since at least 1988. Training methods are better now, so maybe something will win after even further off soon, but it will still pay to side with race fit horses.

Rough Quest had a break of only 16 days in 1996.

Form - Had finished in the first 3 in one of his last 3 starts.

Every horse needs to be in some sort of form, not necessarily winning form as we don't want that pesky handicapper finding us out do we. Even the hopelessly out of form 100/1 shot, Mon Mome, in 2009, managed a 2nd in the January of that year.

Of course Auroras Encore (2013) wasn't placed in his previous 7 races to throw that out of the window but he'd run well in some decent Graded Handicaps. His last form was the previous April with a quality 2nd in the Scottish National. All other winners since 1988 had top 3 form.

Experience - Have run in at least 9 Chases

Horses need good jumping experience to win the Grand National. Every winner since Miinnehoma (9 Chase races) in 1994 has run in at least 10 Chases. You may want to give those with 9 races under their belt, the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't want to be affording others with less any leeway.

Class - Have won a chase worth at least £17,000

You still need to be classy enough to win the National. Bad horses still don't win. The horses at the lower end of the handicap will need to be scrutinised for this trend. Pineau De Reu won a £13,000 race, so leeway can be given if they tick most of the other boxes, but every other winner since Party Politics in 1992 had won a £17,000 Chase. (Apart from Rule The World, who ran in 7 chases worth £40k or more, and possibly would have won the Galway Plate if he hadn't stumbled between the last 2 fences).

Season Runs - Have raced between 3 and 6 times since August

Missed prep races, setbacks in training, bad planning and over-raced horses will find it tough to win the Grand National.

Miinnehoma had only 2 races in the 1993-94 season before his win. Every winner since had 3-6 runs.

We are looking for horses that have been kept ticking over throughout the season without going over the top.

Conclusion: Winning Profile

Aged 8-12

Won over 3 miles or more over fences

Top 3 finish in a 3¼ mile Chase

Last run between 20-84 days ago

9+ Chases

Won a race worth more than £13k to the winner

Between 3-6 runs since August

If you want to refine it further

'Perfect' Profile

Aged 8 to 11

Won a 3m 1f+ Chase

Top 3 in a 3m 4f+ Chase

Carrying less than 11-02

Last run between 20-62 days ago

10+ Chases

Won a race worth more than £29k to the winner

Between 4-6 runs since August

Mares

One more note, Snow Leopardess will be running this year. She really looks to have a very nice profile, she’s also a grey and has now become very popular in the market (16/1→ 7/1 fav, overnight).

However, no mare has won since Nickle Coin in 1951. I’ve gone back to 1988, and to be fair only 22 mares have gone to post and 4 have placed, but only 1 of the last 14 runners (Magic Of Light, 2nd in 2019).

It’s one thing to bear in mind when whittling down your shortlists. Other mares in the line-up (5 day decs) are Mount Ida, Court Maid and Agusta Gold. Court Maid is another faring well on the trends at the moment.

Hopefully since the mares race program has been increased in the last few years, more will be kept in training and one will win. We had 3 run last year, having only had 3 in the 8 renewals before that (and only 8 in the from 2000 to 2019.

Betting

Lastly, the last few years, Bet365 have been giving half of total stakes back on all each way bets (up to £250 staked). This offer usually starts from sometime on Wednesday and ends Saturday at noon.

You must have had an account with them by the wednesday to qualify. There's no guarantee that they will do the same this year, but it's worth opening an account with them if you don't have one already.