Friday 19 March 2021

Cheltenham 2021 - Day Four

 JCB Triumph Hurdle

If you were thinking of backing Quilixios at yestderday's 9/2. Think again, the bookies are taking no chances with Rachel Blackmore's fancies today. I'm going to have to say that Adagio is now the only value in this. The top 3 in the market look good though, and I do expect them to fill the places. The devil in me wonders whether Historic Heart or Talking About You might become a non-runner later on today 😉

BET

ADAGIO @ 16/1. 


McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle


we can rule out the non-hurdlers last time out (in red). 

The last 6 runnings have gone to either Willie Mullins or Dan Skelton.

Mullins has Buildmeupbuttercup, Ciel De Neige, Ganapathi, Getaway Gorgeous and Captain Kangaroo. Of these only Ganapathi is one i'd be interested in, he's a lightly raced novice in the stype of last year's winner, Saint Roi. He is 6/1, so no hidden gem.

Skelton's Third Time Lucki isn't his usual type for this, and is passed over this year.

Champagne Gold was 14/1 a couple of days ago, however Rachel's on board so the price has halved, would have been my bet so keep in the placepot. Fifty Ball was 2nd in the Betfair and before that won 2 handicaps, there maybe more to come from him. 

There is nothing stand out at a price. I want to advise Champagne Gold, and if he drifts he'd be a bet, however I can only see 7/1 at the moment. Not a race I was to go mad on. So just one.

BET

FIFTY BALL @ 14/1, general. 7 places Paddy Power


Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle


I typically aim for Graded winners in this race and that naturally points to 3 of the 4 horses here (the other is Fakiera, but only  Grade 3). 

Adrimel, Alaphilippe and The Cob have all won Grade 2 races this season (Adrimel's was over 2m5). The Cob has come from handicapping, something I'm not too keen on, so he'd be the one to drop if any.

Tom Lacey is 0 from 24 in the last month, so that's a worry for Adrimel. Ben Pauling is 0 from 24 in the last fortnight (2/51 month), not good for The Cob.

Short and sweet.

ALAPHILLIPE @ 14/1, genral. Betfair 5 places.


Wellchild Cheltenham Gold Cup

We have a Gold Cup where many of last years runners meet again. Apart fron Native River and Frodon, the brits have disappointed. The ground should be agianst Native River and Frodon surely won't stay. They may both front run too, which will hinder their chances.

Novice Royal Pagaille has to overcome a couple of negatives, firstly he's come from a handicap (the limited Group 2, Peterborough Chase) and has yet to win a Group 1 Chase. 

Minella Indo, Aso, Black Op and Santini also fail this stat.

Kemboy looks a little exposed for this now and hasn't done too well at the festival before.

Lets concentrate where it will be won. Either Al Boum Photo will either score his hattrick, A Plus Tard will sneak into contention like Sizing John did, or Champ will may three errors, befor steaming up the hill a la Lord Windermere.

Of course the Rachel Blackmore effect has halved APT's price at a stroke. 5/1 was a lovely price, 3/1 not so. Let's see if the price drifts again over the morning.

It looks like a no-bet Gold Cup for me. A Plus Tard would be the selection, 7/2 at the moment, still not a price to tempt me. 

NO BET 


St James's Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunter's Chase


Last years winner It Came To Pass is back for another tilt. You won't be getting the 66/1 this time. He unseated on his last run, and wasn't running well at the time. He would have need that run after 3 months off, although you'd have liked him to have run better. 

There's plenty of last years field back for more - Billaway (2nd), Staker Wallace (4th), Law Of Gold (7th). Only Billaway ticks boxes for us this year. 

Hazel Hill won 2 seasons ago (was a non-runner last year). He'd be a little older than most winners at 13. In the same stable are Salvatore and Wishing And Hoping. British-bred horses haven't been having a great time in this and that would be a negative against Salvatore, as well as Latenightpass and Red Indian.

Wishing And Hoping was well beaten by Bob And Co last time, but 2m 6 won't have suited.  He's not from a Point-To-Point background though and that a negative here. 

The GB-bred stat is the only negative about Salvatore. He won over this trip last time.


Realistically on the ratings, the only horses liekly to win are Billaway, Bob and Co and It Came To Pass. Bob And Co has limited experience (twice in France) of these drying conditions. 


BET

IT CAME TO PASS @ 8/1, general

SALVATORE e/w @ 33/1, Bet 365, Paddy Power



Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase


The first running of the Mares' Chase and its attracted a decent field. I used the Ryanair Chase as the template for some of the trends and the results are above. An obvious place to start would be Willie Mullins trained horses as he does well with purchasing and training them.

Colreevy hasn't troubled the judge in her first 2 runs at the festival, 7th in the Bumper (2018) and 5th in last years' Mare Novices' Hurdle. She's won all 3 of her starts over fences though, including a 12 length beating of Mount Ida (won the Kim Muir yesterday).

Elimay sets the standard thought. Only 3 lengths behind Ryanair winner Allaho in January, she then put Shattered Love in her place over the minimum trip.. She is a worthy favourite.

Salsaretta won her first four starts, including a Grade 2 Chase on the way, she's come unstuck in her last 2 races.

Caberet Queen is the outsider of these 4, although the 25/1 may not last long if Rachel Blackmore has any winners earlier in the day.

Of the rest, Magic Of Light is a former Grand National runner-up and this is surely too short for her, especially on decent ground. Shattered Love shouldn't be ruled out, though beaten by Elimay last time, she didn't jump well early before running on into 2nd. She has won the Marsh (Was JLT) Chase in 2018.

Difficult to see past the favourite. A no bet race for me.


Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle




Most winners in this race have no stamina issues, having raced over further in their fledgling hurdling careers. Graded form of any kind fits may of them as well.

Fire Attack looks perfect on the trends but doesn't fit that particular trait. Its been a Gigginstown Stud benefit since the start, but he's also untried on the drying ground.

Galopin Des Champs is one to consider, his "failure" is not top 3 last time, but he was 6th to Appreciate It in the 2m Grade 1 at Leopardstown.

Gabynako ran 8 lengths behind Bob Olinger (won weds), earlier in the season over this trip. Another not hidden by the market.

Frontal Assault ticks lots of boxes, but hasn't shown enough to say he'll win this.

Gentleman De Mee looks a typical Ex-French, Willie Mullins hotpot, just 3 runs, including a nice win on Irish debut. He's 3/1, but I'd have thought County Hurdle was his race.

Langer Dan won easily 6 days ago, don't even think he really came of the bridle. I'm not usually one for racing again so quickly, but it can be done. Steps up in trip today.

If you need a get out horse, maybe First Lord De Cuet will be the answer. He wen't up 10lb for winning last time out. He doesn't have the Graded form of the favourites, but ticks pleny of other boxes.


The market looks to have everything sorted, and I expect the winner to come from those. I have to back Fire Attack on the trends.

BET

FIRE ATTACK @ 12/1, bet365



Thursday 18 March 2021

Cheltenham 2021 - Day Three

 Marsh Novices' Chase


Going to be difficult to to stop Envoi Allen here. I'd take Fusil Raffles over Chantry House anyday, so 18/1 looks too big. Shan Blue to also fill the frame.

Updated odds give Shan Blue a nice each way price.

BET

Shan Blue e/w @ 12/1 - Bet365


Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle



Southfield Harvest & Getaround now non-runners


Favourite Imperial Alcazar is perfect on the trends. He should go very close. 

Dandy Mag wil be quite popular for Mullins/Townend, however French-Breds have a poor record in this. 

Champagne Harvest looks a little inexperienced for this, but has the right profile.

Anything Will Do is a big price. He's finished 5th in big fields over this trip, but little to completely dismiss him.

Mrs Milner has run well here before, but has to overcome a fall last time. Plenty of mentions on the preview videos.

Redford Road, former Grade 1 winner over C & D last season. Went chasing, discovered he wasn't great at it and qualified for this on his first run back. Some graded winners just don't perform in big bustling handicaps, so that would have to be taken on trust.

Come On Teddy is another C & D winner, with only a 5 length defeat to Imperial Alcazar last time. I will say that Tom George is 1 place from 12 runners in the last fortnight. Jockey, Jonathan Burke is winless in his last 31 rides in the last 14 days as well.


BET

IMPERIAL ALCAZAR @ 6/1 - Bet365

REDFORD ROAD e/w @ 40/1 - Bet365



Ryanair Chase

Dashel Drasher & Real Steel additional non-runners.


Absolutely wide open. Imperial Aura and Mr Fisher haven't won a Grade 1 Chase yet. The Irish have Allaho and Min, and we can't discount Samcro or Melon either. There's no real each-way option and I may have a put on one closer to the race, especially if the ground dries.



Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle

Paisley Park looks back to his best after his last run. This has a stronger feel about it this year. Sire De Berlais won the Pertemps off top weight last year and that gives him a good chance here. Last year's winner Lisnagar Oscar also has a decent chance again, but is now much shorter. And you throw in Grade 1 winner, Flooring Porter, ultraconsistent The Story Teller, and Vinndication, back over hurdles, and you have a craicking race. 

If the ground dried out further, If The Cap Fits, is a Grade 1, 3 mile winner, good ground winner, although he's been chasing this season, so it would be tough to win this from that campaign.


At the current prices, Flooring Porter looks the value.

BET

FLOORING PORTER @ 14/1, 5 places with Paddy Power 



Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase (Mildmay Of Flete)



Smarty Wild & Laskalin are non runners.

It generally pays to stick to Novices or Second Season Chasers in these events. Just over half the field will be those this time.

The Shunter is short enough in the market now, going for the bonus. He was entered into half a dozen handicaps, and this looks the right one for him.

Wave Of The Sea is only 5, only 2 have run in this in the last decade, but he''' be a better class than those 2 as he was a Grade 1 Juvenile winner just last season. Not sure the ground will suit him today.

Farclas also won the Triumph here a in 2018. He will love better ground and has to go close.


Of the outsiders. I can't give you much really. Maypole Class has been climbing the weights, but in small fields, and seems to struggle in bigger. Sully d'Oc AA has a chance, has been off for 111 days though and although winning off a break earlier in the season, its always tougher here. Fils D'Oudaries has been running at the top level, but has been running of soft and heavy ground. Champagne Court  is out of form this season. The Unit is pretty consistent and has been kept to mainly better ground

Of the older horses. Mr Whitaker, Paddy's Poem and Dead Right all have form on good ground.

There isn't a bet on the youngsters at a price, with The Shunter & Farclas up there and nothing too exciting on the ground. Mr Whitaker loves the track and after not getting 3 miles, he's back to his proper trip.


BET

MR WHITAKER @ 16/1, 5 places



Parnell Properties Mares' Novices' Hurdle


Hook Up was 4th to Appreciate It last time and the 3rd was booked for second on tuesday before falling at the last. He doesn't tick lots of boxes, but it is an embryonic race still. Willie Mullins has won them all, but all bar one is a single figure price this time. Tellmesomethinggirl is Irish trained, by Henry De Bromhead, and ticks more boxes than Hook Up. She ws 3 1/2 lengths behind Heaven Help Us (bolted up yesterday). Royal Kahala seems at home on softer ground and that has to be a worry, as does Skyace. The Glancing Queen ran well here in the bumper and runs well without winning, ground will be ok. Pont Aval is Mullins, but will need to find more here.

Can't see myself having a bet at the moment, but the strong form of Hook Up and Tellmesomethinggirl sways me towards those.


Fulke Walwyn/Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase


A few renew their rivalry here. Kifilium Cross (2nd), Bob Mahler (3rd), Plan Of Attack (4th) and Diese Aba (5th) the ones at the business end 12 months ago. They are all lower in the handicap, apart from Diese Aba (same). Kilfilium Cross (age) and Bob Mahler (chase runs) have just tipped over the edge for a strong punt. Plan Of Attack is still on trend, but isn't hidden in the market. Hold The Note (still a novice), perfect here but is also a single digit price.

Mount Ida, Musical Slave and Morning Vicar haven't run over 3 miles yet and have to be opposed in this stamina test.

French-Bred's don't have a good record and this rules out these two. Cobolobo and Didero Vallis.

Sizing at Midnight hasn't completed the last twice.


Purely on their race last year, and their prices

BET

KILFILUM CROSS @ 18/1, Skybet 6 places

BOB MAHLER @ 22/1, WH or 5 places (20/1 Skybet, 6 places)







Wednesday 17 March 2021

 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle


No bet here, but preference is for Bob Olinger over Bravemansgame. 

Gaillard Du Mesnil is a 5yo and they have a terrible record in this race. Bear Ghylls is a nice horse too, but no each way here.



Brown Advisory Novices' Chase


Another easy race. Monkfish should win.


Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle


Finally, a race to lose some money on.  Red horses here are those that didn't run in a hurdle last time and will be discounted regardless.

The pin came down on 4 horses, Grand Roi (11/2), however he's a little short, and we haven't seen a Gordon Elliott, sorry Sneezy Foster horse challenge the scorers yet. 

The other three are all Nicky Henderson trained and he has an excellent record in this race, saddling the last 2 winners.

 Janika has had just the one run this season, after a wind operation. He was well beaten that day, but will have needed the run. He was thumped by Craigneiche (15/2) and he also on the shortlist. Perfect on trends. Shame about the price as he was double that as well. 

The last one is Monte Cristo, another offering perfect trends.


BETS

Monte Cristo (12/1) - Bet365, Coral

Janika (33/1) - Bet365, Coral


Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase


Chacan Pour Soi should really be winning this one. He's perfect on the trends. People will talk about his lack of Cheltenham form, however Leopardstown is pretty testing at the finish and he handles that well. I don't really think anyone should be near him at the end. First Flow won't be liking the drying ground, so unfortunately he's passed over. One who will like the drying ground is Rouge Vif  and he is of each-way interest.


BET, if ground dries to good ground.

Rouge Vif (25/1) - Bet365, PP


Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase


This revolves around whether Easysland is in the same form as last year. His only run this  season was here when he failed to finish. I'm not taking that price about him. I think Tiger Roll is gone at the game now.  Some Neck is of each way interested, winning the handicap version at the course in December.

At the moment, there is no bet/ If Some Neck gets to 12/1 again, then that will be a bet.



Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase



This is now run on the Old Course on the Wednesday, having been shunted from being the get-out stakes on the friday and then the penultimate race for a couple of years. Trends may not quite have the same relevance on this speedier course.

Last year's winner, Chosen Mate, is the obvious place to start. He's a decent price here, though bigger yesterday. Still ticks plenty of the boxes too and should run well. 

6 of the last 10 winners had previously run in this race. The only other from last season is Us And Them this year. He's a little more exposed than your usual winner and his form figures of 08F7 don't inspire confidence either, but he's one to consider on this ground. 

Glen Forsa (u/r) and Bun Doran (2nd) ran in 2019.

2 winners had run in the County Hurdle. Again this may not have the relevence on the New Course, but for reference, they are Embittered (3rd) and Zanza (21st)

Second-season chasers have a good record in this (and many races at the festival). 2 who tick plenty of boxes are Moonlighter and On The Slopes. The latter ran in a Jumpers BUmper last time, which I don't like so is passed over for a bet.

As i suspect the ground will have dried out by this time, Moonlighter is the e/w pick with bits and pieces of form on better ground.


BET

Moonlighter (16/1) - general

Us And Them (14/1) - Bet365, WH




Weatherbys Champion Bumper


Looks a match between Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard. Preference is for the former, who looks the more typical Willie Mullins type. 

Mares with Graded/Listed form have to be respected and that throws Elle Est Belle and Grangee into the mix, and I will side with Grangee, trained by Mullins as a strong each way pick.


BET
Grangee (22/1) - Bet365, WH, PP


Tuesday 16 March 2021

 Skybet Supreme Novices' Hurdle


This looks like a battle between the Leopardstown Festival form and the UK form with Metier (Tolworth) and Soaring Glory (Betfair).

Appreciate It won The Leopardstown race easily, beating Ballyadam and Blue Lord, with Irracible in 5th. He looks the one to beat, being a 7yo is a negative, but offers the best form. Ballyadam was closing before whacking the last, but he's been beaten twice now.

Metier will be happy if it starts soft, but ex flat horses don't have a great record in this any more.

Betfair winner sdon't have a great win record, but often run into a place, so Soaring Glory can't be ruled out.

I'm going to give Grumpy Charley a shout for a place. He's run well at Chepstow and will improve here, however this looks between the top 3 in the market. It a no bet from me.


Likely winner: Appreciate It

Possible E/W:  Grumpy Charley

NO BET


Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase

Allmankind to go off with Numitor like the clappers, Shishkin sits in and picks them up and wins. Next.

Probably not as easy as that and the otrhers are decent horses in their own right. Franco De Port is a Grade 1 winner after all. Apparently Eldorado Allen was supposed to run elsewher, but they left him in the wrong race.


Likely winner: Shishkin

NO BET


Ultima Handicap Chase


Plenty to like about Aye Right, who runs well, but isn't getting a break from the handicapper. He's a little high in the weights but should give a good account of himself. Form is rock solid with places in the CHarlie Hall, Hennessy/Ladbroke and Skybet Chase.

Alnadam gets 5 stars, however his 3 mile win was in a Point To Point and his best form has been over shorter. (similar to The Druid's Nephew in 2015). Into 8/1 this morning, so not an e/w bet.

Happygolucky beat a closing in The Mighty Don (runs in last race). The Racing Post are all over that race, so if he goes in here, The Mighty Don may be of interest, stepped up in trip.

One For The Team has been running well without troubling the judges. Hes a bit short for that form and can't be advised.

Of the outsiders, The Wolf ticks a lot of boxes, but needs a lot more to get involved.

Another race without anything to recommend, however I will suggest 

Likely Winner: AYE RIGHT 

Bet: AYE RIGHT (11/2) - general


Unibet Champion Hurdle

Should be a cracker.


Basically Honeysuckle is perfect and has a big chance after here Irish Champion Hurldle win last time. She's not my kind of price to bet. 

Sharjah ran really well last year and could do so again, especially if the ground dries a little. He's 11/1 at the moment, and my e/w minimum is always 12/1.


Likeliest winner:  Honeysuckle
Possible Each-Way:    Sharjah


Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle


The market has it correct. No bet here. Of the rest Indfatigable won he Martin Pipe last year, steaming up the hill, but has not hit those heights this season.

Likely Winner: Concertista

Possible e/w: Indefatigable


NO BET


Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle



The Fred Winter/Boodles is always a tricky handicap, with the trainer who can hide their horses ability from the handicapper the best, the likeliest winner.

Nassalam had Triumph Hurdle aims until he wasn't good enough, he's top weight, but that is almost irrelvant here. I would'nt rule him out, but there's likely to be a lurker further down.

Willie Mullins has Saint Sam at the top of the market, Willie hasn't had a good record in the race, probably because he doesn't hide his horses. He's one to take on.


Houx Gris ticks lots of boxes, but hasn't run for 2 months. That's usually a negative in this and he's short enough.

Busselton shouldn't be left out, I could see him winning, and there's nothing wrong with a 9/1 winner.


It's a bit of a lottery, but the shortlist is:

Hell Red - Paul Nicholls has a good record in this and this horse has had wind surgey after being pulled-up. His first run back was ok if you are trying to get into this.

Her Indoors - Not that great on the flat, however the form of all 3 of his races look rock solid and I think she can run well. Fillies have a good record in the race, so don't be put off.

Balko Saint - Perfect on trends. Form is decent. 


Each-Way

Hell Red (40/1) - general

Her Indoors (33/1) - Betvictor, 28/1, Bet365

Balko Saint (33/1) - Bet365



Sam Vestey National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Chase


I'll keep this short and sweet:

Next Destiniation only has 2 starts, that's a big negative. He was a really good hurdler, but needs experience here.

Galvin is really good, but he's been off for 4 months and he's got soft ground anyway.

Escaria Ten is perfect, he's 4/1 and I won't put you off. However the form of his last 2 races is unknown, with only 2 horses racing since his December win.

Remastered really good Grade 2 win last time. 

Likeliest winner:  Remastered (11/2) Paddypower, Betfred, Boyles

Likeliest e/w:  Snow Leopardess (16/1) - Unibet, 14/1 general


BOTH ARE BETS