DAY
TWO
Neptune
Investment Management (Baring Bingham) Novices' Hurdle –
Grade 1 – 2m 5f
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Were
aged either 5 or 6.
9/10 Had achieved a Best RPR
of 145 or better. (Exception had raced just once)
9/10 Had won at least 40% of
their hurdle races.
9/10 Had at least 2 runs over
the sticks.
9/10 Had won, or at least,
placed in a Graded Hurdle. (Exception once raced)
9/10 Were rated within 9lbs of
the RPR top rated.
8/10 Had not run at a previous
festival, (ie last years bumper).
8/10 Had won over at least
2m4f.
8/10 Had finished in the top 2
in all Hurdles so far.
8/10 Were bred for National
Hunt (Point-to-Points or Bumpers)
Additionally
30
of the last 31 winners had finished in the top 2 last time out.
27
of the last 29 winners were from the top 6 in the betting.
21
of the last 22 winners were aged either 5 or 6.
14
of the last 16 winners were NH-bred.
No
winner aged 4 since 1991. All 21 unplaced.
No
winner aged 7+ since 1974.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo 0-0-5
5yo 5-6-53
6yo 5-12-66
7yo 0-2-25
8yo 0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie Mullins 3-5-12
Noel Meade 1-1-6
Nicky Henderson 1-0-10
Dermot Weld 0-1-3
Alan King 0-1-7
Contenders
–
10 year trends
winner averaged 4.6
stars
Anteros ** 150/1
Outsider
Beast
Of Burden ***** 12/1
Still
improving, but no form in a Graded hurdle. 11 length thrashing of
Mendip Express (NvCh),
not exactly franked yesterday.
Nichols
Canyon **** 4/1jfav
Not yet won at a trip and is
an ex-flat horse. Is he here on merit or because his trainer had
better in the 2m hurdle?
Ordo
Ab Chao ***** 12/1
Unfancied when winning the
Grade 2 trial here last time. Time before beaten by Vyta Du Roc
at Sandown, but held up for first time in the Trial. Ground is ok.
Outlander ***** 4/1jfav
7 year old, but other than
that he's pretty good. Ground is an unknown.
Parlour
Games **** 6/1
7 year old, won the Neptune
trial and ground is fine, but you don't get many ex-flat horses
winning this.
Snow
Falcon *** 33/1
Shouldn't good enough on what
he's done so far.
Vyta
Du Roc ***** 7/1
Narrowly
beaten by Parlour Games
last time, has a chance.
Warrantor *** 50/1
Needs to step up to get in the
frame.
Windsor
Park **** 5/1
2nd to Nichols
Canyon over 2m2f last time. Form with Outlander puts him with
only a place chance.
Conclusions:
A race that usually goes to
something prominent in the market. I think there are plenty of holes
in some of them. 7 year olds don't have the best record in this.
There doesn't seem to be too much pace in the race so Nichols
Canyon (4/1fav) should have a good chance even without distance
form. Beast Of Burden (12/1) is improving every race, but
lacks top level experience. so as long as ORDO AB CHAO (12/1)
is held-up again I expect a good run.
RSA
Chase – Grade 1 – 3m 1/2f
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Were
horses bred for National Hunt racing.
10/10 Had
run within the last 53 days.
10/10 Had
finished top 3 in a Graded Chase.
10/10 Had
an Adjusted RPR of at least 155.
10/10 Were
rated to within 15lbs of the RPR top rated horse.
10/10 Had
raced over hurdle AND fences between 9 and 16 times.
10/10 Had
started between 3 and 5 Chases.
9/10 Had finished in the top 2
last time.
9/10 Were aged 7 years old.
Additionally
50
of the last 50 winners had run that year.
25
of the last 27 winners had finished in the top 2 last time. 2013
winner was a ½ length loser in 3rd.
20
of the last 21 winners had started at least 3 chases.
20
of the last 22 winners were British/Irish bred.
19
of the last 22 winners were Novice Hurdlers last season.
13
of the last 15 winners were aged 7.
No
horse older than 8 has won since 1992 [Minnehoma].
Only
2 6-year olds have won since 1978 [Young Hustler (1993) and Florida
Pearl (1998)].
Only
1 5-year old has won since 1950 [Star de Mohaison in 2006], their
allowance has been reduced from 10lbs to 2lbs since.
No
ex-flat horse has placed since 1994.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 1-1-5
6yo 0-4-19
7yo 9-10-63
8yo 0-4-23
9yo 0-0-12
11yo 0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Paul Nicholls 2-1-12
Willie Mullins 1-2-12
Tom George 0-1-1
Philip Hobbs 0-1-2
Contenders
–
10 year trends
winner averaged 4.8
stars
Apache
Jack * 33/1
Not good enough on what he's
shown
Don
Poli ** 2/1fav
Won the Martin Pipe Hurdle as
a novice. He lacks the experience of your usual winner in this. He is
6 (though's still really 5) and this is my main reason for opposing
him.
If
In Doubt **** 12/1
Won a Listed race last time
out. Ground will be fine but a disappointed in the Pertemps Hurdle
last festival. 12/1 a fair price.
Kings
Palace **** 4/1
Hasn't beaten anything in his
runs so far (at Cheltenham), and coupled with his tame effort in the
run-in in last years 3m Novice hurdle could be opposed.
Southfield
Theatre **** 7/1
Consistent in small fields and
apart from a blunder costing him victory 2 runs ago he'd be shorter
than 7/1. Done on the line in last years Pertemps, so is a gutsy type
The
Ould Lad * 66/1
Not good enough for this.
The
Young Master * 5/1
Looks an unconventional winner
of this, but some of his wins this season have bucked the race
trends. He is flat-bred and has been off for 81 days and has run more
times than a usual winner.
Wounded
Warrior ***** 12/1
Good Grade 2 winner last time,
ticks all th boxes, but all form on softer ground.
Vroum
Vroum Mag ** 28/1
She's
actually 4 (march 25th)
and isn't good enough on
previous form.
Conclusions:
An interesting renewal with
plenty of alleged holes in some of the favourites. I don't really
think there's an each-way bet here. SOUTHFIELD THEATRE (7/1)
looks the value.
Coral
Cup (Handicap Hurdle) – Grade 3 – 2m 5f
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
a break of at least 32 days from the racetrack. [32-102 days]
10/10 Carried
no more than 15lbs than the bottom weight.
9/10 Had won between 2m2f and
2m6f .
9/10 Had won at least in a
Class 3 hurdle.
9/10 Had won earlier in the
season.
8/10 Were aged between 5 and 7
years old.
8/10 Had between 5 and 9 runs
over hurdles.
8/10 Had run no more that 4
times that season.
8/10 Were officially rated
between 128-144. [The last 2 rated higher]
7/10 Had a top 2 finish last
time out.
Additionally
11
of the last 14 winners carried less than 11-03.
12
of the last 14 winners had won no more than one handicap.
16
of the last 21 winners had won that season.
20
of the last 21 winners were all officially rated less than 149.
Only
two horses aged older than 9 have placed since 1999. [Both in lst 2
years]
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 3-10-57
6yo 4-7-72
7yo 1-5-54
8yo 1-5-53
9yo 1-1-26
10yo 0-1-13
11yo 0-1-5
12yo 0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky Henderson 2-2-25
Tom Taaffe 1-1-4
Gordon Elliott 1-1-6
Donald McCain 1-0-4
Venetia Williams 1-0-8
Jonjo O'Neill 0-2-7
Willie Mullins 0-2-9
Paul Nicholls 0-2-13
David Pipe 0-2-15
Contenders
– 10
year trends winner
averaged 4.2
stars
Volnay
De Thaix *** 20/1
Looks
too high in the weights, the only one that is mind you.
Bear's
Affair **** 33/1
Consistent and ticks lots of
boxes. Ground is perfect, but no Cheltenham form.
Lac
Fontana *** 20/1
Winner of the Vincent O'Brien
Hurdle lst season. Everything is fine, but Sam T-D is on the
favourite. Price is too big to leave alone.
Vulcanite *** 50/1
224 days off is not great for
festival handicaps. Ground and trip fine. Place chance if fit.
Blackmail * 18/1
Looks outclassed in this.
First time hood fitted.
Activial ** 10/1
Trip is an unknown, so pretty
short for that. Consistent and place chances.
Clondaw
Kaempfer *** 50/1
Forget his last run, won a
good race at Aintree last year. 14Th in this last year, so
maybe he doesn't like Cheltenham but ticks many boxes and ground is
fine for him.'
Rolling
Star ** 66/1
May have need the run last
time, but can't have him here.
Un
Atout ** 14/1
Ran well in the Supreme Novice
Hurdle a couple of years ago, so well thought of. Ground is an
unknown.
Lyvius ** 33/1
Yet to win at the distance,
but placed in a couple. Can't rule out.
Zabana ***** 25/1
Good 5th at Aintree
in similar company. Ticks all the boxes. A similar run possible.
Dell'Arca ** 20/1
5th last year, but
in much better form last season. Place chances again. First time
blinkers.
Hamersley
Lake ** 16/1
Pricewise, so won't be 16/1
for long. Poor run last time, and yet to win at the trip.
Plinth *** 33/1
Front runner, can't see him
winning from there.
Goodwood
Mirage **** 12/1
2 miler, ground a concern, but
may need it to stay.
Shammick
Boy ** 66/1
Too old and exposed.
Baradari ***** 16/1
Perfect on the trends. A bit
worried about the ground for him, but again, may need it to stay.
Vasco
Du Ronceray **** 40/1
More at home over shorter.
Taglietelle *** 16/1
Off for 129 days. Looks a 2
mile horse on what he's shown.
Hisaabaat ** 25/1
2 miler, no thanks.
Ttebbob **** 33/1
Wins at lower level, not for
me.
Aux
Ptits Soins *** 9/1fav
Would be worried by 6 months
off and only 2 hurdle runs (3 runs in career). Could win, could blow
out.
Mijhaar ** 33/1
Yet to win at this distance,
but has placed. Poor run last time in similar race at Sandown,
outclassed?
Marinero ** 14/1
Just 3 hurdle runs, can't rule
out, but won't have my money.
Daneking *** 25/1
Yet to win this far, avoid.
Barizan * 66/1
9 year old front runner. Off
for too long.
Conclusions:
Barizan and Plinth
should ensure a good pace and set this up for something else. LAC
FONTANA (20/1, totesport 5pl) won a similar race last year and
with weight not being an issue in this race, he has to be considered.
BARADARI (16/1, Coral 6pl) is trends-perfect, ground is ok but
may end up beating him. 2 at massive prices are Bears Affair
(33/1, coral) and Clondaw Kaempfer (50/1, coral)
Betway
Queen Mother Champion Chase – Grade 1 - 2m
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
won over extended 2m 1f trip.
9/10 Had run no more than 4
times in the season.
9/10 Had between 7 and 14
Chase starts.
9/10 Were younger than 10.
[Exception was a previous winner]
9/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of at
least 170. All 9 had achieved an RPR of at least 166.
9/10 Were racing within the
last 56 days.
8/10 Had won a Grade 1 Chase.
8/10 Were rated within 9lbs of
the RPR top rated.
7/10 Won a Graded Chase last
time out. [Exceptions were 2nd, 3rd and
unseated; but won the race before]
Additionally
29 of the last 31 winners had
won over 2m2f or more, or were C&D winners.
29 of the last 33 winners won
at a single figure price.
20 of the last 30 winners were
placed at a previous festival.
15 of the last 22 winners had
won at a previous festival. (19 of last 30)
13 of the last 16 winners were
5/1 or shorter.
12 of the last 13 winners were
Grade 1 Chase winners.
The last 14 winners of the
Arkle to run in the following year's Champion Chase all placed.
Only 1 winner aged greater
than 10 since 1977. [previous winner Moscow Flyer in 2005]
Only 1 of the last 18 winners
had run more than 4 times that season.
12 of the last 13 champions
were beaten. [Only Master Minded retained his title]
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo 1-0-1
6yo 2-3-10
7yo 1-2-12
8yo 2-2-27
9yo 3-3-22
10yo 0-7-14
11yo 1-2-18
12yo 0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky Henderson 2-1-7
Paul Nicholls 2-1-15
Henry De Bromhead 1-2-5
Gary Moore 1-0-1
Mick Channon 0-1-2
Contenders
– 10
year trends winner
averaged 3.9
stars
Champagne
Fever **** 5/1
Talented and a great festival
record of 112. Connections have decided he doesn't get 3 miles, so
back at 2 miles it is.. Won't get his own way up front this time.
Place chance.
Clarcam * 100/1
5 year old, ran in the Arkle
on tuesday, don't think he'll be winning this.
Dodging
Bullets ***** 6/1
Perfect trends-wise, should
give a good show. I think he'd prefer some cut in the ground.
Mr
Mole ***** 9/1
Bit of a monkey in the past.
Won all 3 races this year. I think 5 stars and 9/1 flatters him
somewhat.
Savello ** 100/1
Grand Annual winner last year,
but not stepped up into Graded company.
Simply
Ned * 20/1
Consistant horse who could run
into a place if others flop. A harsh 1 star here in my opinion.
Sire
De Grugy **** 7/2fav
The champion, who's had his
set-backs this year. Excellent return 18 days ago and needed I think.
Should go close.
Sizing
Europe * 50/1
Former
Champ in 2011. Ran pretty well at 12 last year. Now he's 13. I hope
he bows out with a good run.
Somersby ** 40/1
Another oldie, who always runs
his race, again I hope he runs well, could place but only if others
flop.
Special
Tiara *** 25/1
Front-runner who seems to make
an error just when you think he's gonna get in the money. Should fade
and finish just out of the frame
Sprinter
Sacre **** 4/1
The
race kind of revolves around a horse who had run twice in 2 years. He
ran well without being asked for effort in the Clarence House Chase
(3 length 2nd to Dodging Bullets). The bookies will want
him beat. I'm looking forward to a great race.
Conclusions:
The
market kind of has it right, there's no each-way value. SIRE
DE GRUGY (7/2fav)
is an interest bet here, with the ground a bit too quick for Dodging
Bullets.
Glenfarclas
Cross Country Handicap Chase – Class 2 – 3m 7f
10-year Trends
10/10 Aged
between 8 and 12 years old.
9/10 Placed in
a Cheltenham or Punchestown Cross Country Chase. [7 that season]
9/10 Had won a
Chase over 3 miles or more.
9/10 Top 4
last time out in a Chase.
8/10 Were
officially rated between 126 and 143.
8/10 Irish
Trained. [Exception Philip Hobbs]
8/10 Had run
in less than 22 Chases.
7/10 Had raced
within the last 40 days.
7/10 Carried
less than 11 stone.
Additionally
Of
the 17 races on the course, 15 have been won by horses from the first
3 in the betting.
Only
1 course debutant has won in the last 33 races over the fences.
Only
2 horse younger than 8 had won from 88 runners.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo 0-0-2
7yo 0-0-5
8yo 2-4-22
9yo 2-5-29
10yo 3-5-33
11yo 0-9-29
12yo 3-3-23
13yo 0-2-12
14yo 0-3-3
15yo 0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Enda Bolger 4-2-28
Philip Hobbs 2-2-9
Paul Nicholls 0-2-14
Martin Keighley 0-1-2
Gordon Elliott 0-1-2
Kim Bailey 0-1-4
Willie Mullins 0-1-5
Contenders
– average winner 3.7
stars
Hey Big
Spender *** 33/1
Crowd favourite who was 11th last year. Could run a big
old race, but others have better chances.
Any
Currency *** 6/1jfav
Done in a photo last year. Probably the one to beat.12 length winner
of the December race.
Uncle
Junior ** 20/1
Used to be good, still 2nd this season in November race.
14 now and more likely to be tailed off than up there.
Sire
Collonges **** 15/2
Won one in 2013-14, consistent but will find one or two too good.
Toutancarmont ** 7/1
French Cross-Country raider. Unseated last time. Price isn't tempting
Quantitativeeasing **** 10/1
2nd in the December running. Place chances, but still yet
to win a 3 mile race.
Duke Of
Lucca *** 6/1jfav
Dodgy jumper, need to be perfect to win this. Ground perfect
butshouldn't be 6/1.
Chicago
Grey *** 12/1
Would have a chance on his day, but those are now few and far
between.
Nuage
D'Ainey ** 25/1
Only 6, would be a massive shock of he was good enough.
Rivage
D'Or *** 20/1
Place chances, bit of an unknown for this.
Dogora *** 20/1
Not crying out for this sort of race.
Ipsos Du
Berlais *** 20/1
Doesn't win much, if at all (1 in 3yrs). Might get 4th,
but 6 or 7 more likely.
Charingworth *** 25/1
Good Cheltenham form (not on XC course), out of form lately and
reminders early last time. Not a surprise if he was sparked by a new
challenge.
Rose Of The
Moon **** 40/1
Beaten 100+ lengths last 3 finished and 3 uncompletes before that.
Ticks a lot of boxes (some by default (4th of 4 last time). Big price
if new course excites him.
Are Ya Right
Chief * 33/1
Struggling at this sort of trips. Avoid.
Master
Rajeem * 50/1
Should be
outclassed here. Only 6 and should be a good experience.
Conclusions
Experience is generally key, but lots of the field will be attempting
to win without relevant experience of course. Best to stick with Any
Currency, Sire Collonges and Quantitativeeasing who
are consistent in the Cheltenham races. Small each way on
CHARINGWORTH (25/1, skybet, 20/1 general)
Fred
Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4yo)
– Grade 3 - 2m 1/2f
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Had
achieved a RPR rating of 110 or more.
10/10 Had
run within the last 37 days (8 within 25).
9/10 Had a flat rating of at
least 83 (if rated).
9/10 Were from a Group 1
winning flat sire. [Exception Group 3]
9/10 Had an OR of 124-133.
9/10 Had no more than 5 hurdle
starts. (7 had just 3).
7/10 Had not won in their
first 2 hurdles starts. The last 3 had.
7/10 Had won one of their last
2 starts last time.
Additionally
4
of the 10 winners were fillies, from 10% of runners.
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
David Pipe 1-4-11
Paul Nicholls 1-4-13
Gordon Elliott 1-1-5
Tim Vaughan 0-1-2
Contenders
– 10 year trends
averaged 4.0
stars
Golden
Doyen * 20/1
Gwencily
Berbas *** 18/1
Dai
Bando * 33/1
Arabian
Revolution *** 10/1jfav
All
Yours **** 12/1
The
Wallace Line * 80/1
The
Saint James ** 25/1
Thunder
Zone ** 20/1
Box
Office ** 16/1
Buiseness
Sivola * 16/1
Unanimate * 16/1
Starchitect **** 22/1
Bouvreuil *** 14/1
Souriyan **** 25/1
Zarib **** 12/1
Mr
Gallivanter ** 33/1
Qualando ***** 25/1
Verawal * 50/1
Hostile
Fire **** 10/1jfav
Baron
Alco ** 20/1
Beatabout
The Bush **** 25/1
Sebastian
Beach ***** 25/1
Conclusions:
The last 3 winners have bucked
the trends that the previous 7 winners had started. Not a great race
for me, so small stakes advised.
Qualando is perfect on
the trends but looks comfortable over further in soft ground, so I'm
swerving him.
Sebastian Beach is the
other perfect trends horse, howver he disappointed last time and has
been running at a lower level than Id expect the winner to come from.
Arabian Revolution was turned over by Beltor (Triumph Hurdle)
but comes in here with a decent chance. First time blinkers applied
today. All Yours ran into Beltor too, has a chance.
Starchitect (22/1) has run into Peace And Co and Hargam in his
last 2 runs. He's a big price, but trainer isn't in great form.
Souriyan (25/1) has done well at a lower level and will
improve, whether he's good enough is a different matter. Zarib
(12/1) was 3rd to Peace And Co, 12 lengths behind. Golden
Doyen (*) is a big price considering he was a possible for the
Triumph Hurdle earlier in the season (beat Hargam here) he's top
weight and rated 141, but bottom weight is 129. Shouldn't be a 1 star
horse and could bounce back on ground he's fine with.
Tips STARCHITECT (22/1)
and GOLDEN DOYEN (20/1) are 2 bets in a tough race.
Weatherbys
Champion Bumper – Grade 1 – 2m 1/2f
10-Year
Trends
10/10 Won
last time.
9/10 Had won at least half of
their bumpers.
9/10 Were aged 5 or 6.
8/10 Hadn't raced for at least
33 days. [Hairy Molly (17) and Cousin Vinny (22)]
8/10 Had achieved a RPR of 118
or more. (Exceptions had won their only start).
7/10 Had
won a bumper with 13 or more runners.
7/10 Had won a bumper worth at
least £4,000. (2 exceptions had won their only start)
Additionally
20
of the last 22 winners had won last time out.
17
of the last 22 winners were Irish-bred.
17
of the last 22 winners were trained in Ireland.
16
of the last 22 winners had won a bumper with 14 or more runners.
15
of the last 22 winners were from the first 6 in the market.
16
of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or 6.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo 1-4-42
5yo 5-13-137
6yo 4-3-51
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins 4-2-33
Contenders
–
10 year trends
winner averaged 3.8
stars
Always
Lion * 150/1
Au
Quart De Tour **** 20/1
Bay
Of Freedom ** 125/1
Bellshill *** 14/1
Bordini **** 7/1fav
Davy
Doubt *** 66/1
General
Principle **** 16/1
Ghost
River *** 40/1
Jetstream
Jack **** 16/1
Livelovelaugh *** 33/1
Modus *** 33/1
Moon
Racer **** 15/2
Neatly
Put ** 150/1
O
O Seven ** 50/1
Pylonthepressure ***** 14/1
Stone
Hard ***** 16/1
Supasundae ***** 12/1
Theo's
Charm ** 125/1
Up
For Review *** 33/1
Vigil ***** 9/1
Wait
For Me **** 12/1
Western
Way ** 100/1
Yanworth *** 20/1
Montana
Belle *** 66/1
Conclusions:
Davy Doubt and Ghost
River may take it up, but it could be a muddling affair.
The winner should come from
here
Au Quart De Tour hasn't
put a foot wrong so far, 2 wins from 2 and is a Mullins/Ricci horse.
Bordini has only won in
small field on softer ground.
Moon Racer has been off
for a while. If you can forgive that, then he must have a chance with
a win at Cheltenham on good/soft.
Pylonthepressure
is 3 from 3 on softer ground.
Will want further in time and unproven on ground, but perfect
trends-wise.
Stone Hard is also 3
from on softer ground.
Supasundae has a good
listed win under his belt and form on the ground. Perfect on trends
Vigil
was 5th
last year. Faded in the run in. Trainer thinks he wants softer.
Tips:
SUPASUNDAE (12/1)
