Friday 13 March 2009

Cheltenham Festival - Day 4


Friday’s Cheltenham Preview
1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle (2m 1f)
Walkon 9/2f, Zaynar 5/1, Master Of Arts 6/1, Starluck 13/2, Ebadiyan 9/1, Lethal Weapon 14/1, Jumbo Rio 14/1, 18/1 bar
Trends: We’re looking towards a market leader, who’s finished top 2 LTO, won at least twice and preferably run within the last 7 weeks.
This leaves Jumbo Rio @ 14/1 (Bluesq), Master Of Arts @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes), Ebadiyan @ 9/1 (bluesq) and Walkon @ 9/2f (general)
Value: Trenchant @ 20/1 (general) and Reve De Sivola @ 2/1 (vcbet, paddypower, bet365) both pass the trends (apart from the market leaders). I think one of them will get into the frame.

2.05 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle (2m 1f)
Dave’s Dream 5/1f, Sunnnyhillboy 15/2, Aachen 8/1, Cockney Trucker 9/1, Raise Your Heart, 12/1, Kandari 18/1, 20/1 bar
Trends: Were look for a fancied horse aged 5 or 6 (won 37 of 46 renewals). 13 of the last 20 winners had won LTO, (another 4 were second) and they must have had at least 5 runs over hurdles. This still leaves 4 in. Raise Your Heart @ 12/1 (general), Dave’s Dream @ 5/1f (bluesq, Paddypower, Coral, Betfred), Sky Hall @ 20/1 (skybet) and Sunnyhillboy 15/2 (William Hill).
Value: I think the market has it pretty spot on and I’d rather leave this alone.
2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Spa Novices’ Hurdle Race) (3m)
Cape Tribulation 7/2jf, Pride Of Dulcote 7/2jf, Alpha Ridge 8/1, Weapon’s Amnesty 11/1, On Raglan Road 14/1, Chariot Charger 16/1, 18/1 bar
Trends: The race has only been going 4 years, so trends are limited. The previous 4 had all won at 2m5f or more and won a graded hurdle, so that looks a good stat. They also were 1st/2nd LTO and are rate on RPR of 139+.
Alpha Ridge @ 8/1 (general), Cape Tribulation @ 7/2jf (general), Pride OF Dulcote @ 7/2jf (Bluesq, PaddyPower, Coral), Thetwincamdrift @ 16/1 (general), Weapon’s Amnesty 11/1 (William Hill)
Value: Very little, the winner should come from the top 4 in the market.

3.20 Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m 2f 110y)
Kauto Star2/1f, Neptune Collonges 6/1, Denman 13/2, Exotic Dancer 8/1, Madison Du Berlais 10/1, Barbers Shop 11/1, 16/1 bar
Trends: We can rule out the older horses, any not in the Top 4 LTO, those with only 1 run this season. And you need 6-13 chase starts, A grade 1 win and won a graded chase this year and a 1st or 2nd at a previous festival. Simples! Kauto Star or Exotic Dancer
Value: Madison Du Beralis @ 10/1 (general) is improving all the time, but I can’t help but think that last year’s 4th could run into a place. Halcon Generlardais is 66/1 (general). There must be a ‘without’ market where we can get some e/w. A big old price.
4.00 Christie’s Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup (3m 2f 110y)
Juveigneur 5/1f, Cappa Bleu 11/2, Amicelli 8/1, Royal Auclair 10/1, Kingscliff 12/1, Limerick Boy 14/1, 18/1 bar
Trends: The trends rule out a few but there are still 8 horses left in. Juveigneur isn’t one of them ;-)
Value: Difficult to find an edge. So I won’t.
4.40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (2m 4f 110y)
Big Eared Fran 5/1, Mamlook, 7/1, Buena Vista 12/1, Penn Da Benn 12/1, Hangover 14/1, Little Shilling 16/1, 20/1 bar
Value: First running of this race. I think Piraya is a big old price @ 25/1 (PaddyPower)
5.15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Handicap) (2m 110y)
Poquelin 11/2, French Opera 9/1, Tiger Cry 10/1, Pasco 10/1, Clew Bay Cove 10/1,
My Petra 11/1, 12/1 bar
Trends: 7 left in after applying the trends. Hard race but, Poquelin and French Opera are the only market leaders that pass all the trends
Value: Very little, the winner is usually 10/1 or less, however L’Orient Express is overprice at 16/1 (vcbet, WH, Lad, Betfred) . Tiger Cry won this last year and Moon Over Miami is a lovely horse who love Cheltenham, but need to improve to reach the heights of 2007.

Wednesday 11 March 2009

Cheltenham Day 2


Wednesday’s Cheltenham Preview

Not a bad day yesterday, I think I managed to make a tiny profit, very unusual for the 1st day. Forpadydeplasterer won @ 8/1. Nenuphar Collonges was 3rd @ 17/2 (was 20/1), The Sawyer ran a great race before finishing 5th, hopefully some of you got paid out on that .Boylesports did 5 places and are also offering guaranteed odds, as are Victor Chandler. Enda Bolger had a 1-2-3 in the Cross Country, the only value being the 3rd, Drombeag which was 12/1 for most of the day.

1.30 139th Year Of The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase (4m)

Can’t Buy Time 9/2f, Kornati Kid 8/1, Coe 9/1, Niche Market 10/1, Forest Leaves 11/1, Parsons Pistol 12/1, 14/1 bar

Wow. For a 4 mile race I can see that most of the field have barely run over 3 ½ m. The only 3 that have managed it are Niche Market, Nine De Sivola and Tank Top. Interesting. However lets go through the trends.

Trends: Were looking for a 7-9yo horse with at least 3 runs over fences and a good run over 3m+, preferably finishing in the top 4 LTO. This isn’t a race for favourites either so plenty of value around. No 6yo has won for 20 years and no 5yo for over 30 years. This doesn’t rule out very many unfortunately. (Drumconvis, Fair Point, Hennesey, Itsa Legend, Le Beau Bai and Nuvelli are scratched) Wichita Lineman is a non-runner after yesterday’s fantastic effort.

Value: Nine De Sivola’s best performance was in the Scottish National (2nd), however this was on good to firm ground and I’m not sure Cheltenham will suit either. We’ll see.

Of the market leaders, I’m probably going to side with Coe @ 9/1 (PaddyPower, Ladbrokes, William Hill or - 7/1 insured first 3 with PP) who’s 2 runs this year at Haydock were pretty impressive. Doesn’t have the course form which is a worry, but no-one stands out in that respect. Parson’s Pistol @ 12/1 (William Hill) is an interesting Irish raider and is worth a small each way. Looks like the market leaders will prevail here, I can’t give you a value e/w selection, so maybe another race to watch.

2.05 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (2m 5f)

Mikael D’Haguenet 7/2f, Karabak 18/5, Diamond Harry 5/1, Mad Max 13/2, The Nightingale 14/1, Quwetwo 20/1, Knockara Beau 20/1, 28/1 bar

Trends: This looks a little easier. Winners of this have finished top 2 in all their completed hurdle starts with a 50% win percentage. They need to have won over at least 2 ½ miles and 21 of the last 23 winner have started in the top 6 of the betting. Only 1 7yo+ winner in this from over 100 runners. 6 yo have won 7 of the last 9.

This leaves Diamond Harry @ 5/1 (Paddypower, Coral), Karabak @ 18/5 (Sportingbet) and The Nightingale @ 14/1 (Sportingbet, Stan James)

Value:

Diamond Harry has done nothing wrong and is a nice price now thanks to Mikael D’Haguenet. Another who looks superb. Of the others Karabak and Mad Max have very good chances. Of the 4 I will plump for Diamond Harry @ 5/1. Each way, Junior @ 40/1 (general) has decent course form with his 3rd in last year’s Coral Cup.

2.40 Royal & Sun Alliance Chase (3m 110y)

Cooldine 7/2f, What A Friend 6/1, Carruthers 6/1, Gone To Lunch, 15/2, Massini’s Maguire, Killyglen 14/1, Casey Jones 14/1, 16/1 bar

Trends: Here, we are looking for horses with form, 1st/2nd LTO (31 of last 34 winners did this), At least 3 runs over fences and the last 10 winners weren’t brought over from the flat. Oh and rated within 14lbs of the RPR top rated. (Bye bye Hold Em, Horner Woods, Lightning Strike, Lodge Lane, The Market Man and Bohemian Lass). Well that’s great, still all the top horses still in, oh well lets look a bit closer.

Value: Never been a What A Friend fan, sorry Alex.... All Gone To Lunch’s wins have been in small field and this will be too competitive for him. I fancy Cooldine @ 7/2f (general)over Carruthers @ 6/1 (general) although both should run well. Ballyfitz @ 22/1 (sportingbet) has excellent course form on the ground and Irish runner Siegemaster @ 25/1 (bet365, Totesport, Sportingbet, Skybet) is well regarded.

3.20 Queen Mother Champion Chase (2m)

Master Minded 2/5f, Big Zeb 12/1, Well Chief 14/1, Petit Robin 18/1, Briareus 20/1, Twist Magic 20/1, 50/1 bar

Right, Master Minded @ 2/5f (William Hill) will win by 20 lengths if he jumps well. Each way, Briereus (20/1, Paddypower) looks decent for a place. He beat I’msingingtheblues @ Kempton, before a good 4th in the King George. However his best form is over 3m. Well Chief (14/1)was class, and Twist Magic @ 20/1 is going backwards.

4.00 Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) (2m 5f)

The Polomoche 7/1f, Psycho 9/1, Pause And Clause 11/1, Ambobo 12/1, Great Endeavour 12/1, Mirage Dore 16/1, Gee Dee Nen 16/1, 18/1 bar

Trends: The trends rule out a few. Lough Derg is surely carrying too much weight here, though it hasn’t stopped him before. Of the favourites, Gee Dee Nen has won a race as good as this. The other pass the test.

Value: A very tough race. I though Naiad Du Misselot last year was a stand out, however thiis almost impossible. I’ll find 2-3 fun each ways, however minimum stakes advised.

Onnix @ 40/1 (general) 6th in last year’s Pertemps Hurdle, with some good horses ahead of him. Proves he can handle the trak and is worth a dabble.

Ambobo @ 12/1 (Bet365, Coral – both 5 places) looks a little big here and should make the frame

Serabad @ 25/1 (Bet365 – 5 places) – Think this is a big price and I fancy a big run.

Ninetieth Minute @ 18/1 (coral -5 places) Outside chances but should handle the course.

Chief Yeoman @ 33/1 (Boylesports – 5 places) Big price, may sneak a place

4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (2m 110y)

Alexander Severus 5/1f, Miss Sarenne 8/1, Amore Mio 12/1, Ronaldo Des Mottes, 12/1, Higgys Boy 14/1, Silk Affair 14/1, Mr Thriller 14/1, 18/1 bar

This looks a minefield. I think no bet is the best bet. Ok, Mr Thriller to teeny weeny stakes, 5 places at Bet365, 14/1

5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (2m 110y)

Rite Of Passage 9/2, Sicilian Secret 13/2, Dunguib 7/1, Quinola Des Obeaux 11/1, Quel Esprit 12/1, Shinrock Paddy 14/1, 16/1 bar

Trends: Back Willie Mullins horses. He won 6 out of 12 renewals. You’re looking for a horse (aged 5 or 6) that’s won a bumper with 15 or more runners that won LTO.

Value: I really fancy Shinrock Paddy @ 14/1 (Sportingbet – 4 places), he isn’t a Mullins horse but he’s won a bumper round here, the only one to do so. Dunguib @ 7/1 (betfred, Ladbrokes, Bluesq, Skybet) looks the best of the favourites.

Good luck


I don't think I'll be doing in depth previews for the next 2 days... time will tell


VH

Tuesday 10 March 2009

Cheltenham Festival - Day One


Tuesday’s Cheltenham Preview

Well, it’s finally here and I haven’t kept my promise of regular tips and post to this blog. But I will be working particularly hard to get everything in over the next 4 days. I will try and pick the winner using both the winner’s trends and my ratings and also pick out some value picks as per usual. First of all we need to remember that horses placed at previous festivals are more likely to be placed again as Cheltenham is one of the most demanding tracks in jumps racing. Horses for courses and all that.

There are plenty of free tipping competitions around to test your prowess or luck:-

http://www.beatvictor.com/

http://www.attheraces.com/cheltenham/

http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/community/news.php?id=725

http://www.selectastable.co.uk/CleverTV/en/tmg/rp-new/15740/clienthome.do

(£5 per stable, 5 for £20)

The roar of the first race is coming, let’s try and break even for the week....

PS Check out the latest odds on oddschecker.com or easyodds.com. Don’t forget that bet365.com, paddypower.com, stanjames.com and williamhill.com all offer guaranteed odds on their websites. (They pay out on the SP if its bigger, so always take the price)

And it’s an earlier start this year, so please don’t tune to Channel 4 at 2pm for the first race.

Happy valuehunting,

VH

1.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (2m 110y)


Cousin Vinny 3/1f, Torpichen 6/1, Kempes 10/1, Go Native 11/1, Micheal Flips 14/1, Red Moloney 14/1, Ainama 14/1, 16/1 bar

The trends for his race suggest that you must have won 50% of your hurdles races and have a distance win to your name. This rules out most of the outsiders (good). Last year Captain Cee Bee beat Binocular up the hill to break 2 big trends as he was a 7 year old coming off a break of more than 75 days. Still 5/6 year olds have won 30 of the last 34 renewals and the Irish have an excellent record in the last 10 years (68 runners, 7 wins, 6 places)

Trends: Cousin Vinny @ 3/1f (Stan James, vcbet) or Kempes @ 12/1 (Coral)

Value: I don’t see any in Cousin Vinny, I reckon something could beat him up but he is the classiest horse in the race. Torpichen would be a very young winner at 4. With the rain forecast tomorrow, ones to be on the right side of is Golan Way @ 33/1 (Stan James, Ladbrokes, vcbet) or Aachen @ 16/1 (general). It could be a race to watch rather than punt on.

2.05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (2m)

Tatenen 4/1f, Calgary Bay 6/1, I’msingingtheblues 9/1, Forpadydeplasterer 9/1, Planet Of Sound 11/1, Kalahari King 14/1, 16/1 bar

The trends insist on an unexposed Novice Chaser (less than 6 Chase starts) aged 5-7, who has finished in the top 2 in all their starts and won over 2m/2m1f. The only horses that fit the profile are Tatenen @ 4/1f and I’msingingtheblues @ 9/1. However Planet Of Sound and Forpadydeplaster have both won over further, which is surely an advantage up the hill and Cheltenham on possibly soft ground. I wouldn’t rule out Kalahari King either, but he is 8.

Trends: Tatenen @ 4/1f (general) or I’msingingtheblues @ 9/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power, vcbet)

Value: If the ground is soft, then this will play into the hands of Tatenen and Forpadydeplasterer. Both would be hard to beat. You can back Forpadydeplasterer @ 15/2 with bet365 in the ‘insure a bet’ 3 place market. (If he’s 2nd/3rd you get your stake back). Golden Silver @ 16/1 (general) and Follow The Plan @20/1 (Betfred, Stan James) could be viable each ways on the forecast soft ground.

2.40 William Hill Handicap Trophy Chase (3m 110y)

Wichita Lineman 6/1f, Possol 8/1, Star De Mohaison 10/1, Millenium Royal, 12/1, Patsy Hall 12/1, Cailin Alainn 14/1, 18/1 bar

There’s only been one winning favourite since 1977 (Antonin in 1994), however the horse doesn’t know what price he is, so it’s best sticking to stronger trends. For instance the best age is 7-10, ruling out Possol (6) and carrying less than 11st. Ideally the winner will have won over at least 3 miles and also won a good class Handicap Chase. Hmmm ... That didn’t work too well. We still have 9 in. Well we should be looking for horses in some sort of recent form and with some course form too.

Reveillez won the Jewson Novices’ Chase in 2006. Has raced once in almost 2 years, pulling up in January (heavy) in the race that The Sawyer won. – Avoid on soft going

Simon has had 5 runs around here and has placed just once and hasn’t looked the force of old (F25U4U47) since his last win over 2 years ago – Not good

Nenuphar Collonges - 2 wins from 3 runs here, including in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle last year. Won at Bangor in November. Good good!!

Hot Weld – Winner of the Amateur Rider’s Chase in 2006 and also the Scottish National in 2007. One run in nearly 2 years (pulled up in Feb). Has an outside chance of a place if he’s fit.

Lacdoudal has had 12 runs around here, with 1 win and 2 places. No win for 3 years, but should be plodding on at the end for place chances.

Billyvoddan hasn’t won since 2006 and is completely out of form. Has been placed 3 times in 8 runs at Cheltenham. - Ignore

Oedipe – Unexposed horse, who finished 13th to Mister McGoldrick in last year’s Racing Post Plate. Won’t want the rain to come.

The Sawyer won at Cheltenham in January over 2m 5f in heavy ground – A positive

Lothian Falcon – Pretty consistent, probably needed the run in January. Has a 100% record around here.

Trends: Nenuphar Collonges @ 18/1 (bet365, vcbet), The Sawyer @ 40/1 (bet365, vcbet, Ladbrokes or Lothian Falcon @ 20/1 (sportingodds, totesport)

Value: The two I’m interested in are actually trend horses . Nenuphar Collonges @ 18/1 and The Sawyer @ 40/1

3.20 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (2m 110y)

Binocular 15/8f, Celestial Halo 9/1, Osana 11/1, Crack Away Jack 14/1, Katchit 14/1, Whiteoak 16/1, 20/1 bar

Trends: The ideal profile for this race is a horse with at least 9 outings over hurdles that has won LTO, has finished in the top 2 at a previous Festival, and won a Grade 1 Hurdle or Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle. Also horses over 8 have only won 3 times in over 50 years. The 3 horses that are left are Katchit @ 14/1 (general), Osana @ 11/1 (Betfred) and Whiteoak @ 16/1 (general). The last 10 winners had also run withing 52 day,s which is a negative on Katchit (80).

Value: None in Binocular, and he may well win, but that nagging doubt about the Cheltenham hill and this large field offers little value and there’s plenty of e/w thievery on offer. Namely in Celestial Halo, Osana and Katchit. And if the girls want to support the girls, I can’t put you off Whiteoak either.

4.00 Glenfarclas Handicap (Cross Country Chase) (3m 7f)

L’Ami 9/4f, Garde Chametre 4/1, Dix Villez 7/1, Wonderkid 10/1, Drombeag 14/1, A New Story 16/1, 20/1 bar

Trends: Not much as this has only been going for 4 years. If you want to follow the limited trends, then you can only really pick from L’Ami @ 9/4f (Paddy Power, Stan James, Ladbrokes, William Hill) or Garde Champetre @ 4/1 (Betfred). The two other selections with a sniff are Dix Villez @ 8/1 (PaddyPower) and Drombeag @ 12/1 (general).

Value: The value not surprisingly lies with Drombeag and he is nicely weighted with 10-7. Puntal @ 28/1 (Skybet) may sneak a place.

4.40 David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle (2m 4f)

Quevega 5/2f, United 4/1, Chomba Womba 15/2, Give It Time 10/1, Oscar Rebel 12/1, Caroles Legacy 16/1, 22/1 bar

Trends: The first running of this was last year, with Whiteoak (Champion Hurdle) outstaying Refinement up the hill.

Value: It will probably pay to side with United @ 4/1 (general), with her experience of Cheltenham and the softening conditions. Quevega @ 5/2f (general) is a good horse, but I don’t know what she’s actually beaten so far. Experienced campaigner Chomba Womba @ 15/2 (Paddy Power) should be there abouts. Gaspara @ 22/1 (Bet365, Stan James) could bring about a place for her efforts. 2 others for consideration at longer odds are Dansimar @ 22/1 (Bet365, SJ) and Sweetheart @ 28/1 (Bet365, vcbet).

Hopefully you’ll have broken even on the day. See you tomorrow