Grand National 2022 - Runners and Selections (updated to final field)

1 Minella Times 9-11-10 *** 11/1

Lasy year’s winner. Up 15lbs now and very unlikely to repeat off top weight. Was in great form last season too, has just 2 runs this season and yet to finish.

2 Delta Work 9-11-09 **** 9/1

Won the Cross Country at Cheltenham. That was on heavy ground and probably took plenty out of him. Has the class to win off this rating and was only 5/1 to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2021. I’m just going to oppose him as this is still a huge weight to lug around.

3 School Boy Hours (Res) 9-10-05 *** 25/1

Not run to a standard the usual winner would have (Best RPR of 147). Only 2 races this year and not raced at a trip. People do fancy him, but not for me.

4 Any Second Now 10-11-08 **** 9/1

Third last year, but up 7lbs this year. Too high in the weights for me, to win especially.

5 Run Wild Fred 8-11-07 **** 22/1

Just the one chase win so far (3m), so very vulnerable for win purposes. 2^nd in last year’s Irish National, probably should have won, but not fluent the last 2 fences. Bit one paced, but should stay all day, but as I’ve said, doesn’t win very often and will be carrying a bit too much weight.

6 Lostintranslation 10-11-06 *** 66/1

Won this season over 2m 5f but out of form since. Doesn’t seem like a typical National horse. Did manage a 3^rd in the 2020 Cheltenham Gold Cup behind Santini, but those days are probably behind him. A little too high in the weights for most horses, can’t see him up there.

7 Brahma Bull 11-11-06 **** 80/1

Doesn’t really look the sort to win this. A second unseat in his chase career last time means he can’t be trusted and doesn’t strike me as a National horse. Still a little high in the weights. He was pretty consisent before his last 2 runs. Not the worst 80/1 shot in the world.

8 Burrows Saint 9-11-05 ***** 22/1

4^th last year, and was my big tip. Faded up the run-in and I was grateful for the place. Runs off the same mark this year so place chances again if as good. His run last time is a massive worry, beaten 42 lengths as favourite.

9 Mount Ida 8-11-05 *** 33/1

Mare who looked the part winning the Kim Muir from out of the back at Cheltenham in 2021. Trouble is she doesn’t like jumping left handed, even in that Kim Muir win she wasn’t good at all and she won’t be able to do it round here. Only 8 chase starts.

10 Longhouse Poet 8-11-04 *** 16/1

Won the Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park in February, which is a nice one to bag. However he has only 6 runs under his belt and that is a big negative. He’s also yet to prove he can stay this far and the wrong side of 11 stone. Hopefully he learns from the experience and could easily win this in the future, especially if they can drop him a few lbs for next year.

11 Fiddlerontheroof 8-11-04 *** 16/1

Would like to be more positive about him. Really good 2^nd in the Ladbroke Trophy in November. Past winners have competed there. But little form at a trip, and yet to win a decent chase in his career. Still a shade too high in the weights for my liking.

12 Two For Gold 9-11-03 **** 40/1

Passes plenty of the main trends but doesn’t look like an out and out stayer to me. Definitely in form but unseated at Canal Turn on only try over the fences in last year’s Topham Chase. Just the wrong side of the weight line too.

13 Santini 10-11-02 **** 40/1

2^nd in ther Gold Cup 2 seasons ago. Not the same force anymore and one to ignore. Ok you need more. While I don’t care too much that he’s British-bred, he is and only 1 winner since 2000 has been. He also is a little high in the weights, and hasn’t any proven staying chase form.

14 Samcro 10-11-01 *** 80/1

Bit of an enigma now and best days are behind him. Grade 1 Cheltenham winner (2m 4f) only in 2020, but not really the staying type, and a little high in the weights.

15 Escaria Ten 8-11-01 ** 14/1

Only 7 starts, just the 2 runs this season. Only win at a low level and yet to prove he’ll stay this far. Maybe next year.

16 Good Boy Bobby 9-10-13 **** 33/1

Won the Rowland Meyrick Chase on Boxing Day. That’s about as far as he’s gone in his career so far, so this will be unknown. The right side of 11 stone. But others will be more suited for this.

17 Romain De Senam (Res) 10-10-05 ** 150/1

Plenty of Chase staers (32), but just the one run this season, in the Midlands National (pulled-up). Yet to win over 3 miles or more and won’t stay the trip.

18 Coko Beach 7-10-13 **** 66/1

Just a 7 year old and badly out of form so easy to pass over. Plenty of time for him.

19 De Rasher Counter 10-10-12 **** 40/1

I backed him 30 months ago in the Ladbroke Trophy. Only been seen 4 times since. His 3 chases starts have been 4^th (of 6, beaten 33L), Pulled-up and 4^th (of 5, beaten 34L) He’s now back to that winning mark of 149. But just the noe start this season is very off-putting. He’s British-bred and he’s yet to taste a trip this far. Love him as a horse, but not for this.

20 Kildisart 10-10-11 **** 40/1

Great 4^th last time out in his first run for 462 days. The 1 run is a problem. Ultra-consistent at about 3 miles, so no marathon form.

21 Discorama 9-10-11 *** 40/1

Never though of him as a Grand National horse but did finish 7^th last year. Just 2 runs this season and with only 1 small Chase win behind him (over 2m 3f) fails too many trends to consider for win purposes.

22 Top Ville Ben 10-10-11 **** 80/1

Fell here in the Becher Chase on his only taste of the fences. Fails a couple of mini-trends, but all form is around 3 miles, so one to ignore for win purposes.

23 Enjoy D’Allen 8-10-11 **** 14/1

Stayed on well to finish 3rd in last year’s Irish National. Yet to win over this far (won a Point-to-Point), nor a race worth too much. Not for me this year.

24 Anibale Fly 12-10-11 **** 50/1

Placed twice in this, but now a 12 year old, and as he hasn’t won by now, he’s unlikely to do so now (pulled-up last year). Completely out of form as well, so this may be his last race.

25 Dingo Dollar 10-10-11 **** 66/1

Good 2^nd behind Mighty Thunder in the Scottish National last year, but poor effort over these fences in December 2020. Lack of a big race win is holding him back little winning form over further than 3 miles.

26 Frewheelin Dylan 10-10-10 *** 66/1

Won the Irish National at 150/1 last Easter Monday. Led fromn the front and they couldn’t get past him. Hasn’t finished a race in his 2 starts this season proper, though one was a Cross Country at Cheltenham and the other a hurdle, so excuses there. He’s a big price but on his day he’s proven himself before. He’s been off for 90 days now (won the IGN off of 174 day break though). He’s the first of the horses to fall under the 150 Best RPR rating threshhold, at 149.

27 Class Conti 10-10-10 *** 150/1

15^th last year. Dreadful this season. Yet to prove he stays for this. Ignore.

28 Noble Yeats 7-10-10 * 40/1

7 year old with just 7 chase starts, no marathon form either. Just a £7k chase win and that was over 2m 3f. Ignore.

29 Mighty Thunder 9-10-10 **** 40/1

Scottish National winner in 2021. Failed to finish his last 2 races. Was in much better form last year too. Can forgive him having 9 chase starts. British-bred. Something to prove now.

30 Cloth Cap 10-10-10 ***** 25/1

Favourite last year (pulled-up) after romping home in the Ladbroke Trophy. He basically ticks the right boxes, but has really struggled under his lofty rating since that win. I think he’s too risky.

31 Snow Leopardess 10-10-09 **** 8/1 fav

Well, she’s all the rage. Halved in price over the last few days. She is a mare, a brood-mare at that. She’s GB-Bred. Just 9 Chase starts. She’ll be the story of the National if she wins but she’s just too short now.

32 Agusta Gold 9-10-09 **** 80/1

The 3^rd mare in the race. RPR of 144 at her best. She was really consistent last season, but hasn’t sparkled since running down the field in last years Irish National. Was 2^nd last time out, but little to get excited about. Bothe her wins are over shorter.

33 Commodore (Res) 10-10-05 *** 40/1

Yet to achieve a RPR of 150 or more. Just the one start this season, and has been off for 4 months. However he did win that start in December after 309 days off. It was over 3m 2f at Cheltenham by 15 lengths. Too many holes in his profile to win this…… I think.

34 Deise Aba 9-10-08 ***** 100/1

The only trend he fails is his best RPR of 147. Was 2^nd at Sandown in the “London National” in December. Hmmm…. Place chances or outclassed. Can’t decide.

35 Blaklion 13-10-08 **** 50/1

Fantastic warrior over the years, carried my money back in 2017. Looked all over the winner 3 out, but it’s a long way home and he finished 4^th. Brought down in 2018, then came back for some more last year to finish a fantastic 6^th. His chance was all those years ago I’m afraid and this 13 year old must be passed over now. British-bred another slight negative.

36 Poker Party 10-10-08 **** 100/1

Pulled-up in the Cheltenham Cross Country. Badly out of form since a 666 day break. Might tick a lot of boxes, but unlikely to stay this far.

37 Death Duty 11-10-07 ***** 40/1

Perfect on trends. Decent 6^th in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham. That’s race is a good pointer to this in the past. Been around for ages but not too many miles on the clock. Former Grade 1 Chase winner in his youth. Won the Irish Trial for this. Rarely runs on ground as quick as it’s forecast. 5^th and 6^th (at Cheltenham) when he has. He will stay but they may be too fast for him.

38 Domaine De L’Isle 9-10-07 **** 100/1

Beaten by 36 lengths in the Eider Chase last time. Not quite good enough on RPR so far and not proven at a marathon trip so far.

39 Eclair Surf 8-10-06 ***** 14/1

Just 9 starts. That fine, I’ll let him have that. Passes everything else. Won over 3m 5f in January, then a great 2^nd to Win My Wings in the Eider Chase at Newcastle. Gave him 11lbs that day for a 1 ¾ L beating. Win My Wings just won the Scottish National by 5 lengths (4^th was 24L behind). A Player.

40 Fortescue 8-10-06 **** 33/1

Really good win (stayed on well) at Ascot last time. He is GB-bred, winning chase form at only 3 miles. No marathon experience so far, but the sort to give you a good run for your money.

CONCLUSION

I Usually wait until the morning of the race, where you will get the best prices. However I will have to put this up as I’m afraid my first selection will not be the price it is later today.

The main selection is ECLAIR SURF. He’s 14/1 (888bet, betvictor, Coral, Ladbrokes) and 12/1 everywhere else. If he’s tipped by Pricewise or Hugh Taylor, he won’t be that tonight.

The way the Win My Wings won his Scottish National last week suggests that Eclair Surf is well handicapped on the form of the Eider Chase. Giving him 11lbs, he was just 1 ¾ lengths back and they were clear of the third place.

Win My Wings then goes out in the Scottish National and beats her stablemate Kitty’s Light by 7 lengths, Major Dundee back in third (12 lengths) and the rest 24 lengths and further back than the winner.

Then there’s the Classic Chase at Warwick the run before, where Eclair Surf dominates from the front, beating his rivals by 13 lengths. In 4^th was Corach Rambler, who won the Unibet Chase at Cheltenham last month.

I will update the page with 2-3 other selections on saturday morning, but had to publish this early.

11^th Jan, Exeter - WIN MY WINGS takes flight late on to win a race of ever-changing fortunes - Racing TV - YouTube

15^th Jan, Warwick - ECLAIR SURF dominates £100,000 Classic Chase at Warwick - YouTube

26^th Feb, Newcastle - ATR Player | Replay | Saturday 26 Feb 2022 | 15:15 | Newcastle | At The Races

2^nd Apr, Ayr - Wow! WIN MY WINGS pulverises her rivals to win the 2022 Scottish Grand National! - Racing TV - YouTube

UPDATE:

3 Reserves run, they aren’t worth considering.

I’ve a shortlist of 5 horses, all should stay and are going to be happy on the drying ground. There is a worry that with the faster ground something will stay on that probably shouldn’t be there.

Shortlist:

Run Wild Fred (16/1) – Doesn’t win, but should stay. Ground will be fine maybe too slow.

Burrows Saint (25/1) – Placed last year. Runs off the same mark.

Mighty Thunder (40/1) – Great last year, poor this year, may have a bit of Auroras Encore about him but hope not expectation.

Cloth Cap (28/1) – Favourite last year, and flopped. Must run better this year and the pressure is off. Now 1lb lower than his last winning mark.

Eclair Surf (NAP) – See above.

I really only want to be on Eclair Surf, but will probably back the other 4 at nice prices tomorrow.

As always , good luck and don't forget to take a price on your selections if you are in a shop.

Grand National Trends 2022

 

Grand National 2022 - Trends Analysis

Minella Times (11/1) won last years renewal, and in Rachel Blackmore we had the first female jockey win the event. I couldn’t have the horse myself, he hadn’t won over 3 miles or more for starters (2m6f) thus suggesting he wasn’t the stayer you want for this normally. This year he is now top weight and should find it very difficult to repeat the feat.

Of course, Tiger Roll, should be running to win his 3^rd Grand National, but as the owners spat their dummy out for the 2^nd year running, he is now retired after they also spoilt their own retirenent party but winning with Delta Work.

Many of the trends continue to look pretty strong and we will continue to use them until they are broken

Age - Horses aged 8-12.

No horse outside of this age range has won a Grand National since 1940 when Bogskar (aged 7) took the honours. The last horse older than 12 was Sergeant Murphy (aged 13) who won in 1923. Horses younger than 7 are now prevented from competing, they couldn't win anyway and need protecting from over-enthusiastic trainers and owners.

The last 16 winners were all aged between 8 and 11 years old. Amberleigh House won well as a 12 year old in 2004, the only one that old since 1995, however horses outside the 8-11 age range have just 3 places from 58 runners in the last 10 years.

10 Year Trends (won-placed-runners) – 2020 not run of course.

aged 7 0-0-18

aged 8 4-7-63

aged 9 2-8-99

aged 10 0-6-83

aged 11 3-3-53

aged 12 0-1-29

aged 13 0-2-8

aged 14 0-0-3

Distance Win - Winning form over at least 3 miles, preferably 3m1f+

Last year Minella Times was the second horse not to have won a Chase over 3 miles. * since Gay Trip in 1970. Really frustrating that that stat has been broken.

Rule The World was a maiden when winning in 2016. He has finished 2nd in the Irish Grand National the season before, so had no stamina problems, just race winning ones.

Previously on Grand National blog:

* Not since Gay Trip won the race in 1970 has the winner previously not won a race over at least 3 miles. It seems logical that if you haven't won a race at 3 miles or more, you won't win one at 4m 21/2f.

To go a bit further, 15 of the previous 17 winners had won a chase over 3m 1f or more, and 15 of the last 17 had a top 3 finish over 3m 21/2f or further. The fences may be 'easier' and the distance 'shorter' but stamina is still extremely important at a marathon trip.

Weight Carried

Only 4 horses since 1983 had carried more than 11 stone 1lb. All 4 have come since the 2010 renewal, possibly due to the fences being a bit easier and the race shorter. However in the last 5 renewals, very few horses with weight were up there at the business end.

In 2013 only 1 horse within 50 lengths carried more than 11st.

In 2014 only 1 horse within 115 lengths carried more than 11st.

In 2015 only 1 horse within 90 lengths carried more than 11st. Excluding the winner.

In 2016 no horse within 147 lengths carried more than 11st 1lb. The ground was soft.

In 2017 no horse within 66 lengths carried more than 11st 1lb.

In 2018 only 1 horse within 55 lengths carried more than 11st 1lb. The ground was heavy.

In 2019 4 horses ran within 31 lengths of the winner, carrying more than 11st. Excluding the winner

In 2021 no horses finished carrying more than 10st 13lb.

In total, just 10 horses were within 554 lengths of the winner in the last 8 years. This excludes the 2021 race (128 lengths first to last) So low weights are still preferred.

Race Fitness - Must have run within the previous 62 days.

One For Arthur was off for 84 days. As we said above, every winner was off for a maximum of 62 days since at least 1988. Training methods are better now, so maybe something will win after even further off soon, but it will still pay to side with race fit horses.

Rough Quest had a break of only 16 days in 1996.

Form - Had finished in the first 3 in one of his last 3 starts.

Every horse needs to be in some sort of form, not necessarily winning form as we don't want that pesky handicapper finding us out do we. Even the hopelessly out of form 100/1 shot, Mon Mome, in 2009, managed a 2nd in the January of that year.

Of course Auroras Encore (2013) wasn't placed in his previous 7 races to throw that out of the window but he'd run well in some decent Graded Handicaps. His last form was the previous April with a quality 2nd in the Scottish National. All other winners since 1988 had top 3 form.

Experience - Have run in at least 9 Chases

Horses need good jumping experience to win the Grand National. Every winner since Miinnehoma (9 Chase races) in 1994 has run in at least 10 Chases. You may want to give those with 9 races under their belt, the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't want to be affording others with less any leeway.

Class - Have won a chase worth at least £17,000

You still need to be classy enough to win the National. Bad horses still don't win. The horses at the lower end of the handicap will need to be scrutinised for this trend. Pineau De Reu won a £13,000 race, so leeway can be given if they tick most of the other boxes, but every other winner since Party Politics in 1992 had won a £17,000 Chase. (Apart from Rule The World, who ran in 7 chases worth £40k or more, and possibly would have won the Galway Plate if he hadn't stumbled between the last 2 fences).

Season Runs - Have raced between 3 and 6 times since August

Missed prep races, setbacks in training, bad planning and over-raced horses will find it tough to win the Grand National.

Miinnehoma had only 2 races in the 1993-94 season before his win. Every winner since had 3-6 runs.

We are looking for horses that have been kept ticking over throughout the season without going over the top.

Conclusion: Winning Profile

Aged 8-12

Won over 3 miles or more over fences

Top 3 finish in a 3¼ mile Chase

Last run between 20-84 days ago

9+ Chases

Won a race worth more than £13k to the winner

Between 3-6 runs since August

If you want to refine it further

'Perfect' Profile

Aged 8 to 11

Won a 3m 1f+ Chase

Top 3 in a 3m 4f+ Chase

Carrying less than 11-02

Last run between 20-62 days ago

10+ Chases

Won a race worth more than £29k to the winner

Between 4-6 runs since August

Mares

One more note, Snow Leopardess will be running this year. She really looks to have a very nice profile, she’s also a grey and has now become very popular in the market (16/1→ 7/1 fav, overnight).

However, no mare has won since Nickle Coin in 1951. I’ve gone back to 1988, and to be fair only 22 mares have gone to post and 4 have placed, but only 1 of the last 14 runners (Magic Of Light, 2nd in 2019).

It’s one thing to bear in mind when whittling down your shortlists. Other mares in the line-up (5 day decs) are Mount Ida, Court Maid and Agusta Gold. Court Maid is another faring well on the trends at the moment.

Hopefully since the mares race program has been increased in the last few years, more will be kept in training and one will win. We had 3 run last year, having only had 3 in the 8 renewals before that (and only 8 in the from 2000 to 2019.

Betting

Lastly, the last few years, Bet365 have been giving half of total stakes back on all each way bets (up to £250 staked). This offer usually starts from sometime on Wednesday and ends Saturday at noon.

You must have had an account with them by the wednesday to qualify. There's no guarantee that they will do the same this year, but it's worth opening an account with them if you don't have one already.

Cheltenham Festival 2022 - Day Four (FINAL DECS)

JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE

2 Miles, 179 Yards - Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle

Overview

Good race to start off the day. One of the favourites usually wins, especially since the Fred Winter took the big field away. The Only big priced winners recently were the 1 raced types, like Pentland Hills and Burning Victory.

Last 10 Winners- average 4.4 stars

2021  *****  Quilixios (2/1)

2020  *****  Burning Victory (12/1)

2019  ***      Pentland Hills (20/1)

2018  ****    Farclas (9/1)

2017  ****    Defi Du Seuil (5/2 fav)

2016  *****  Ivanovich Gorbatov (9/2 fav)

2015  *****  Peace And Co (2/1 fav)

2014  *****  Tiger Roll (10/1)

2013  *****  Our Conor (4/1)

2012  ***      Countrywide Flame (33/1)

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had raced within the last 48 days.

  9/10 Had an OR of 84+ on the flat, or did not race on the flat. [Pentland Hills (73)]

  9/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 149. [OR 140+] [Pentland Hills (139]

  9/10 Were rated within 6lbs of the RPR top rated. [Pentland Hills (21lbs)]

  9/10 Had won at least 50% of their hurdles. [Farclas, twice was 2^nd.]

  9/10 Were from a flat Group 1 sire. [Exception: Our Conor was from Jeremy, a Group 2 sire]

  8/10 Had won a Graded Hurdle or were 2^nd in a Grade 1. [Ivanovich Gorbatov was, a 9 length, 4^th in a Grade 1, Pentland Hills won his only start in a Maiden.]

  8/10 Had raced over hurdles between 1 and 4 times. [Exceptions: 5 and 6 times]

  8/10 Had won one of their last 2 starts. 6 won their last start. [Exceptions form was ‘23’ and ‘22’ ]

  8/10 Had finished in the top 2 last time. [Exceptions: 3^rd and 4^th]

  7/10 Made their hurdles début after November 9th. [Exceptions: Jul 16^th, Oct 13^th and Oct 15^th]

Additionally

28 of the last 31 winners had at least 2 runs over hurdles.

22 of the last 28 winners had won last time out.

20 of the last 28 winners had won at least twice over hurdles.

Only 2 winners was rated lower than 80 on the flat since 1996.

12 of the last 17 winners (since the introduction of the Fred Winter) came from the first 4 in the betting.

Fate Of Favourites    LSP:    +3.00

Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)

Nicky Henderson 2-3-13

Gordon Elliott (Ire) 2-2-8

Willie Mullins (Ire) 1-6-24

Henry de Bromhead (Ire) 1-1-2

Joseph O’Brien (Ire) 0-1-3 and 1 winner under his father’s licence.

Paul Nicholls 0-2-16

Contenders

*          Ages Of Man (200/1)

***      Doctor Parnassus (20/1)

*****  Fil Dor (15/2)

****    Icare Allen (18/1)

***      Il Etait Temps (10/1)

***      Knight Salute (20/1)

*          Koi Dodville (100/1)

*          Lunar Power (25/1)

*****  Pied Piper (5/2 fav)

****    Porticello (16/1)

**        Teddy Blue (100/1)

*****  Vauban (15/8 fav)

Conclusion

Looks a match on paper between Pied Piper and Vauban in the betting. Pied Piper beat Vauban’s on the latter’s debut, but Vauban’s is expected to reverse the form after a fairly impressive victory over Fil Dor at the Dublin Racing Festival. Back in 3^rd was debutante, Il Etait Temps. He will come on for that massively and while 10/1 is about right, he’s definitely a player. In 5^th was Icare Allen. He was going better than Fil Dor at one stage, but just faded away and the clattered the last. He could get closer, but probably isn’t going to win. Gary Moore’s Porticello is the best of the British runners. He did lose to Knight Salute on his 2^nd run, but he did make a couple of errors. His next 2 runs were impressive and on this softer ground, he can make the frame. Knight Salute is 5 from 5 for Milton Harris. He doesn’t win by much and has a bit to find on the figures, but does have some course form to his name.

Update: The ground is now GOOD-SOFT. Porticello probably better on softer isn’t likely to be a bet now. I’ve switch to the once raced Il Etait Temps at an each way price.

Selections

IL ETAIT TEMPS e/w @ 12/1 (general, 4 paces at Bet365.)

McCOY CONTRACTORS COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE

2 Miles, 179 Yards - Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle

Overview

Looks like you won’t find a winner for years and years in this. But Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton have won 6 of the last 7.

Last 10 Winners- average 3.9 stars

2021  ***      Belfast Banter (33/1)

2020  ****    Saint Roi (11/2 fav)

2019  ***      Ch’tibello (12/1)

2018  *****  Mohaayed (33/1)

2017  ***      Arctic Fire (20/1)

2016  *****  Superb Story (8/1)

2015  ***      Wicklow Brave (25/1)

2014  *****  Lac Fontana (11/1)

2013  *****  Ted Veale (10/1)

2012  ***      Alderwood (20/1)

10-Year Trends

10/10 Were aged between 5 and 8.

  9/10 Had finished in the top 3 in either of their last 2 starts. [Exception: Wicklow Brave swerved at the start and was pulled-up just 6 days previous.]

  9/10 Had less than 2 Handicap Hurdle wins, the. [Exception: Alderwood had 2 in 2012]

  8/10 Had achieved a RPR of 139 or more on a Left-Handed course. [Exceptions: 130 & 132]

  8/10 Had between 2 and 4 runs since August. Exceptions: 0 and 6]

  8/10 Were top 2 in at least 40% of their seasonal hurdles runs. [Exceptions: 0% and 25%]

  8/10 Were rated between less than 145 by the handicapper. [Excetptions: Arctic Fire (158) and Ch’tibello (146)]

  7/10 Had less than 13 hurdle races. [Exceptions: 14, 17, 19]

  7/10 Had carried less than 11-03 [Exceptions 11-4, 11-5 and 11-12]

  7/10 Started on the flat.

  7/10 Ran in a Graded Hurdle.

Additionally

55 of the last 60 winners had carried less than 11-03.

54 of the last 61 winners were younger than 8.

24 of the last 25 winners had handicap experience.

22 of the last 28 winners has raced at least 4 times in the season.

19 of the last 27 winners had raced within the last 5 weeks.

Jockeys claiming 5lbs or more are 0/74 in the last 20 renewals.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

  5yo 3-11-75

  6yo 4-9-69

  7yo 0-6-57

  8yo 3-2-29

  9yo 0-2-14

10yo 0-1-9

11yo 0-0-1

Fate Of Favourites    LSP:    -5.50

Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)

Willie Mullins (Ire) 3-8-34

Dan Skelton 3-0-10

Tony Martin (Ire) 1-1-4

Paul Nicholls 1-1-16

Philip Hobbs 0-3-14

Nicky Henderson 0-3-16

Gordon Elliott (Ire) 0-2-16 (and Denise Foster (Ire) 0-2-3)

Alan King 0-2-8

Contenders

****    Call Me Lyreen (40/1)

****    My Mate Mozzie (22/1)

****    Tritonic (33/1)

****    Ballyadam (50/1)

**        Felix Desjy (80/1)

****    Dysart Diamond (80/1)

****    Faivoir (66/1)

*****  First Street (20/1)

****    Cask Mate (50/1)

****    I Like To Move It (12/1)

****    Jesse Evans (25/1)

****    Farout (40/1)

*****  West Cork (10/1)

***      Irascible (40/1)

***      State Man (3/1)

****    Colonel Mustard (7/1)

****    Suprise Package (11/1)

***      Top Bandit (16/1)

*****  Cormier (33/1)

****    Gua Du Large (33/1)

***      Eclair De Beaufeu (40/1)

****    Tax For Max (25/1)

***      Bua Boy (66/1)

*****  Broomfield Burg (16/1)

***      Stepney Causeway (100/1)

***      Tempo Chapter Two (40/1)

Conclusion

Lets start with the Mullins horses. He doesn’t really plot them, they usually fall into Novices just short of Supreme Novice Hurdle class and older horses who’ve dropped off the top level. Dan Skelton does plot his horses for this. Once they get their handicap mark, he’s happy to put them away for longer.

Starting with the favourite, State Man. He doesn’t fare well on the trends as he’s never run in a handicap and without any big Graded Hurdle runs to boost his RPR, it’s lower than many winners. He was brought over from France with the Supreme in mind, but he fell on his Mullin’s debut. He’s too short for me, but should make the frame.

Farout has been running in some hot Grade 1s and this may suit him better. He would want the ground to dry out to at least some good-soft in the description.

Tax For Max hasn’t been seen since July, where Farout beat him, hard to fancy but Mullins can get them ready off 232 day breaks. Tempo Chapter Two, not quite the same as State Man, but another who’s yet to run in a handicap. First win last time, can out run his odds.

Dysart Diamond has disappointed recently after a busy campaign. Probably shouldn’t be that price, but more solid options out there.

Dan Skelton has 3 running, firstly I don’t think Stepney Causeway will be doing the business.

West Cork does tick the boxes of a likely winner. Winner of the Greatwood Hurdle here (old course) in November, he got an injury while finishing 5^th at Ascot a month later. Off since and primed for a big run.

Favoir is a big price, probably too high in the ratings for this though. Was chasing before going back to hurdles in last 2 runs and not a plot.

Of the rest, Gordon Elliott’s Eclair De Beaufeu deserves a mention. Fell at the last in the lead (wouldn’t have won) in this 2 years ago, before coming back for 4^th last year. He’s 3lbs less this year. He’s badly out of form, but maybe the course sparks him back. Call Me Lyreen won well last time, but has taken a huge hit by the handicapper and with top weight (good claimer on board) may find some too good. Felix Desjy too old now. Top Bandit (Davy Russell rides) is 4 from 5 in Novice Hurdles, including here in October. Ground probably needs to dry out, but can run well.

Suprise Package (beaten 18 lengths by Lyreen Legend in February) won the Imperial Cup at the weekend by quite a long way. Gets a 5lb penalty and can run well if coming out of the race.

On balance, the Irish horses are the ones to concentrate on. I mean even the best British hope is West Cork.

Selections

WEST CORK e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365, 7pl)

TOP BANDIT e/w @ 16/1 (Betfair 7pl, 14/1 Bet365, 7pl)

ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE

(REGISTERED AS THE SPA NOVICES’ HURDLE)

2 Miles, 7 Furlongs, 213 Yards - Grade 1 Novice Hurdle

Overview

Some nice big winners in this race (for us too). And some hotpots turned over.

Last 10 Winners- average 3.6 stars

2021  *****  Vanillier (14/1)

2020  *****  Monkfish (5/1)

2019  ***      Minella Indo (50/1)

2018  *****  Kilbricken Storm (33/1)

2017  *****  Penhill (16/1)

2016  *****  Unowhatimeanharry (11/1)

2015  *****  Martello Tower (14/1)

2014  ***      Very Wood (33/1)

2013  *****  At Fishers Cross (11/8 fav)

2012  *****  Brindisi Breeze (7/1)

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had last raced between 27 days and 78 days ago.

10/10 Had won over 3 miles (including Point-to-Points). 4 won Graded Hurdles.

  9/10 Had raced over hurdles at least 3 times. [Exception: Minella Indo, twice]

  9/10 Had won at Cheltenham during the season or had been running in Ireland. [Exception: Brindisi Breeze.]

  9/10 Had finished top 2 in a Graded Hurdle. [Exception: Monkfish won a 7k Maiden]

  8/10 Were aged between 6 or 7. [Exceptions: 5 and 8 year olds]

  8/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of 151 or more. [Exceptions: 143 & 147.] 8/10 OR 140+

  8/10 Were rated within 11lbs or the RP Top Rated. [Exceptions: 13lbs and 18lbs]

  8/10 Sire Index of at least 11.6f. [Exceptions: 9.9 & 10.7]

Additionally

16 of the 17 winners were aged 5-7.

16 of the 17 winners had won over 2m4f+.

14 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 3 last time.

15 of the 17 winners had run in a 3m Hurdle.

13 of the 17 winners finished top 4 in a Grade 1 or 2 hurdle last time.

11 of the last 16 winners had won a Graded Hurdle.

36 of the 49 placed horses finish in the top 2 last time.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

5yo 1-3-32

6yo 6-12-106

7yo 2-4-30

8yo 1-1-10

9yo 0-0-1

Fate Of Favourites    LSP:    -6.63

Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)

Willie Mullins (Ire) 2-4-31

Colin Tizzard 1-2-12

Henry De Bromhead 1-1-4

Gordon Elliott (Ire) 0-4-8

Nigel Twiston-Davies 0-2-7

Nicky Henderson 0-2-13

Contenders

**        Ballygriffincottage (33/1)

****    Bardenstown Lad (18/1)

***      Brorson (100/1)

***      Classic Getaway (28/1)

****    Eric Bloodaxe (33/1)

Falcon Eight NON-RUNNER

*****  Ginto (3/1)

***      Good Time Jonny (16/1)

***      Green Book (40/1)

*****  Hillcrest (11/4 fav)

**        Idas Boy (80/1)

**        Mahler Mission (66/1)

****    Minella Cocooner (11/1)

***      Ramillies (33/1)

****    Shantreusse (12/1)

*          Stag Horn (20/1)

***      The Nice Guy (14/1)

***      The Real Whacker (100/1)

***      Where It All Began (150/1)

Conclusion

I like Graded form and lots of experience in this race. The best 2 horses on the trends are also the two favourites. Hillcrest and Ginto. They are excellent horses.

Hillcrest is a chaser in the making. He won a Grade 2 last time on heavy over 3 miles. Bred to stay all day, his jumping will need to improve. I think on balance he looks the likely winner

Ginto has won at the top level, but at only 2m 4f. He’s only had 3 runs. He was edging towards the Ballymore until this was made easier by Minella Crooner’s injury.

Of the other Graded winners, Eric Bloodaxe’s run last time was too bad to be true (beaten 73 lengths by Minella Cocooner. He’s had 4 runs and would likethe ground to stay the same please.

Minella Cocooner won at the Dublin Racing Festival. They may have run him in the Ballymore but his stablemate Minella Crooner got injured. He’s by Flemensfirth and should stay 3 miles. He’s only had 3 starts, so is inexperienced.

Green Book won a Grade 3, but was thrashed by Hillcrest last time. He’ll want the ground to dry here.

Mahler Mission won the Grade 2 River Don last time. That has been a poor trial for this and is passed over.

Shantreusse won a Grade 3 last time. He’s only had 3 runs, but both his wins were fairly impressive. Softer ground is not a problem.

Stag Horn has only 2 starts. His Graded 2 win was over 2m5f and isn’t sure to stay.

Bardenstown Lad has been running at a low level for John McConnell, including a win here in October. He’s drifted to a nice price in the last few days.

Selection

SHANTREUSSE e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365, 5pl)

BOODLES CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP CHASE

3 Miles, 2 Furlongs, 70 Yards - Grade 1 Chase

Overview

Could be a cracker. Second season chasers have an excellent record and horse usually beaten once, get beaten again.

Last 10 Winners- average 4.2 stars

2021  ***      Minella Indo (9/1)

2020  *****  Al Boum Photo (100/30 fav)

2019  ***      Al Boum Photo (12/1)

2018  *****  Native River (5/1)

2017  *****  Sizing John (7/1)

2016  ****    Don Cossack (9/4 fav)

2015  *****  Coneygree (7/1)

2014  ***      Lord Windermere (20/1)

2013  *****  Bobs Worth (11/4 fav)

2012  ****    Synchronised (8/1)

10-Year Trends

10/10 Were aged between 7 and 9 years old.

  9/10 Had a Grade 1 Chase win under their belt. 8 at 3 miles or more. [Exception: Minella Indo, Grade 2 win, 2^nd in a Grade 1 by just a length]

  9/10 Had an Adjusted RPR of 172+ for this race. [OR 164] [Lord Windermere (161, OR152)]

  8/10 Were rated within 12lbs of the RP Top Rated. [Exceptions: Lord Windermere, 24lbs]

  9/10 Had won a chase over 3 miles or more. [Exception: Al Boum Photo ran out at the last, whilst the likely winner]

  8/10 Had won last time out. [Exceptions 5^th and 6^th in a Grade 1.]

  8/10 Had less than 11 Chase starts. [Exceptions 12 & 18]

  8/10 Had recorded a seasonal Graded Chase win. [Exceptions: 6^th in a Grade 1, and a Listed winner on only run.]

  7/10 Had raced fewer than 4 times that season. [Exceptions, 4, 4 & 5] 2 Had fallen on their penultimate start, so probably needed to get a run into their charges.

  7/10 Had been placed at a previous festival, 4 in the RSA Chase. [2 exceptions fell, the other hadn’t been to the festival]

Additionally

30 of the last 34 winners were top 4 last time

18 of the last 21 winners had finished top 2 last time.

26 of the last 28 winners were aged 7 to 9.

27 of the last 31 winners had raced at least twice that season.

20 of the last 21 winners had all won a Grade 1 Chase.

21 of the last 23 winners had won that season.

20 of the last 22 winners had an OR of 166 or more.

17 of the last 21 winners were all from the front 3 in the betting.

19 of the last 24 winners were placed at a previous festival.

15 of the last 19 winners had been off for 65 days or less.

15 of the last 20 winners had finished top two at a festival

16 of the last 30 winners were second season chasers.

111 of the last 114 horses beaten in the race, were beaten again. [Native River (3^rd in 2017), Kauto Star (regaining the trophy) and See More Business (c/o)]

No horse aged 11 or more has won since 1969.

Only 3 horses have won with less than 6 Chase starts since 1963.

No winner has run on heavy ground in his winning season this century.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

  6yo 0-1-2

  7yo 2-8-23

  8yo 6-6-38

  9yo 2-4-44

10yo 0-1-13

11yo 0-0-7

12yo 0-0-2

Fate Of Favourites    LSP:    +1.33

Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)

Willie Mullins (Ire) 2-6-26

Nicky Henderson 1-4-12

Colin Tizzard 1-2-11

Jonjo O’Neill 1-1-4

Henry de Bromhead (Ire) 1-1-6

Tony Martin (Ire) 0-2-2

David Bridgwater 0-2-4

Contenders

****    Al Boum Photo (12/1)

Twice winner, 3^rd last year, age catches us all eventually

****    A Plus Tard (11/4 fav)

Lost last year, lost last time. Should make the frame, but not in first.

***      Asterion Forlonge (25/1)

Always makes an error, and you can’t make an error in this.

*          Aye Right (100/1)

Outclassed handicapper, who doesn’t win very much.

****    Chantry House (18/1)

Never taken to him. Dreadful in his win last time. Surely he can’t win this.

*****  Galvin (4/1)

Outstayed A Plus Tard at Christmas and won the “4 miler” last year. He’s had 12 chases (just a tick over perfection) and should go close.

****    Minella Indo (6/1)

Champion. Been average this year, has the race taken it’s toll on him or is he just waiting to come back to the place he loves. Time will tell

*****  Protektorat (10/1)

Great on the trends, but did spent a 2^nd season over hurdles and Gold Cup winners go chasing straight away.

***      Royale Pagaille (14/1)

Poor here last year, just not top level.

*          Santini (50/1)

2^nd 2 years ago. Out of form and overlooked today.

*****  Tornado Flyer (12/1)

I didn’t think he stay the King George Trip, Do I think he’ll stay this. Well I think he can. I’m certain he’ll be ridden out the back. But the pace may not be as frenetic here and he may have too much to do if he relaxes too much.

Conclusion

I really like Galvin. But if the ground dries and they just don’t come back to him, he won’t win. Stays all day and I’m hoping he’ll power up the hill in the last 50 and nab, A Plus Tard or Minella Indo or Protektorat. If Tornado Flyer is with him, it could be a hell of a finish.

Selections

GALVIN @ 4/1 (Bet365, William Hill, Betfred)

TORNADO FLYER e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365, William Hill, 4pl)

ST JAMES’S PLACE FESTIVAL CHALLENGE CUP

OPEN HUNTERS’ CHASE

3 Miles, 2 Furlongs, 70 Yards - Class 2 Chase

Overview

The amateur’s Gold Cup. Lots of favourites win and lots of outsiders win. A tough race to crack.

Last 10 Winners- average 4.3 stars

2021  ***     Porlock Bay (16/1)

2020  ***     It Came To Pass (66/1)

2019  *****  Hazel Hill (7/2 fav)

2018  *****  Pacha Du Polder (25/1)

2017  ****    Pacha Du Polder (16/1)

2016  *****  On The Fringe (13/8 fav)

2015  *****  On The Fringe (6/1)

2014  *****  Tammys Hill (15/2)

2013  *****  Salsify (2/1 fav)

2012  ***     Salsify (7/1)

10-Year Trends

10/10 Sire or DamSire’s Stamina Index was 13.7f or more.

10/10 Had run within the last 53 days.

10/10 Had raced over at least 17 races in career.

10/10 Had achieved a Racing Post Rating of 133+ over fences in their career.

  9/10 Were aged between 8 and 11. [Exception: Salsify was 7.]

  8/10 Top 3 last time out. [Exceptions: 7^th & P/up]

  8/10 Had won over 3 miles or more. [Exceptions: placed over further than 3 miles.]

  7/10 Started their career in either Point-to-Points or Hunter Chases. [Exceptions: 2 flat runners and French Hurdler]

  7/10 Had an A.RPR of 139 or more. [Exceptions: 126, 132, 135]. 9/10 O/R of 134+

  7/10 Were rated within 9lbs of the Adjusted RPR. [Exceptions: 14lbs, 20lbs, 29lbs]

Additionally

27 of the last 28 winners had won under rules.

43 of the last 45 winners were aged 11 or less.

27 of the last 32 winners started their career in Point to Points or Hunter Chases.

25 of the last 36 winners had won last time.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

  6yo 0-0-3

  7yo 1-0-12

  8yo 1-3-25

  9yo 1-4-35

10yo 2-4-41

11yo 3-3-40

12yo 0-2-30

13yo 0-0-6

14yo 0-0-2

Fate Of Favourites    LSP:    +0.13

Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)

Enda Bolger (Ire) 2-2-9

Paul Nicholls 2-1-14

Rodger Sweeney (Ire) 2-0-4

Philip Rowley 1-2-6

Kelly Morgan 0-2-3

Colin McBratney (Ire) 0-2-3

Willie Mullins (Ire) 0-2-3

Warren Greatrex 0-2-4

Contenders

***      Back Bar (80/1)

*****  Billaway (2/1)

****    Bob And Co (13/2)

****    Cousin Pascal (11/1)

***      Desire De Joie (66/)

*          Don Bersy (80/1)

****    Dubai Quest (10/1)

*          Fumet D’oudairies (25/1)

***      It Came To Pass (33/1)

***      Lord Schnitzel (25/1)

**        Mighty Stowaway (33/1)

***      Monbeg Chit Chat (50/1)

***      Overworkdunderpaid (33/1)

**        Point The Way (100/1)

****    Pont Aven (11/1)

**        Premier Magic (18/1)

*          Rewritetherules (150/1)

***      Senior Lombardy (66/1)

*****  Winged Leader (11/2)

Zamparelli NON RUNNER

Conclusion

Billaway just can’t get his head in front here. Bob And Co unseated last year. Cousin Pascal won the Aintree equivalent, that was over shorter. Winged Leader should run well having slammed Billaway last time. If you are behind in your tipping competition, Senor Lombardy is improving every run and should outrun his big odds.

Selections

WINGED LEADER @ 11/2 (General)

MRS PADDY POWER MARES’ CHASE

(REGISTERED AS THE LIBERTINE MARES’ CHASE)

2 Miles, 4 Furlongs, 127 Yards - Grade 2 Mares’ Chase

Overview

Making its debut last season. It was won by 2^nd favourite, Colreevy, trained by Willie Mullins. No real surprise. The front 3 in the market finished in the top 3.

Trends

We used similar trends to the Ryanair Chase. Colreevy’s trends are here too.

Top 2 in one of their last 2 finishes – Won all 3 Chase starts.

Distance Win - Yes

A.RPR of 163+ - 166

Within 6lbs of RPR Top Rated – Rated within 2lbs.

Less Than 5 runs since October – 3 Runs

Aged 7-9 – Aged 8

Days Since last Race <83 – 51 Days

Less than 15 Chase starts – 3 Chase Starts

Won a Graded Chase – Won a Novice Grade 1

Festival Run - 5^th in the Mares Novice Hurdle and 7^th in the Bumper.

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

  6yo 0-0-1

  7yo 0-1-2

  8yo 1-0-3

  9yo 0-0-3

10yo 0-1-2

Fate Of Favourites    LSP:    -1.00

Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)

Willie Mullins (Ire) 1-1-4

Mrs Denise Foster (Ire) 0-1-1 [G Elliott (Ire)]

Contenders

****    Concertista (9/2)

****    Scarlet And Dove (22/1)

*****  Elimay (9/4)

***      Maid O’Malley (150/1)

*****  Mount Ida (2/1 fav)

**        Pink Legend (33/1)

****    Vienna Court (14/1)

***      Zambella (12/1)

Conclusion

The 2 best teams on ratings are the perfect horses, they are both short in the market. I’ve a feeling I maybe throwing money away picking an outsider, so best watch this one. Concertista would be the best horse in the field, but only 2 starts over fences and mistakes in each victory.

Selections

NO BET

MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’

HANDICAP HURDLE

2 Miles, 4 Furlongs, 56 Yards - Class 2 Handicap Hurdle

Overview

Irish winners abound and David Pipe can’t win his Dad’s race. Gordon’s won 2 and Willie’s won 3 of the last 8.

Last 10 Winners- average 4.0 stars

2021  ***     Galopin Des Champs (8/1)

2020  ****    Indefatigable (25/1)

2019  ***     Early Doors (5/1)

2018  *****  Blow By Blow (11/1)

2017  *****  Champagne Classic (12/1)

2016  ***     Ibis Du Rheu (14/1)

2015  *****  Killultagh Vic (7/1)

2014  *****  Don Poli (12/1)

2013  ****    Salubrious (16/1)

2012  ***     Attaglance (20/1)

10-Year Trends

10/10 Had an A.RPR of at least 143 or more. All had achieved an RPR of 137+ previously

10/10 Were aged either 5 to 7.

  9/10 Had run within the last 47 days. [Exception; Early Doors, 77 days]

  9/10 Were 1st/2nd season hurdlers. [Exception: Ibis Du Rheu had 2 late runs in France before moving to Paul Nicholls]

  9/10 Had won over 2m2f or further. [Exceptions: Early Doors won over 2m1/2f]

  9/10 Had run in a Graded Hurdle. [Exception: Attaglance in 2012]

  8/10 Had finished in the top 3 last time. [Exceptions: 5^th and 6^th (Grade 1)]

  8/10 Had less than 9 hurdles starts. [All below 14 starts]

  8/10 Had run over further in their careers. 2M 5f+.

Additionally

43 of the 52 horses in the top 4 were 1st/2nd season hurdlers.

David Pipe is 0/23 in the race named after his father. [1 place]

Horses in headgear are 1/64. [Blow By Blow broke the duck in 2018]

Ages (Wins-Places-Runners)

  5yo 3-9-59

  6yo 5-14-82

  7yo 2-5-45

  8yo 0-1-27

  9yo 0-0-11

10yo 0-0-6

11yo 0-0-1

Fate Of Favourites    LSP:    -10.00

Top Trainers (Wins-Places-Runners)

Willie Mullins (Ire) 3-3-22

Gordon Elliott (Ire) 2-6-20

Paul Nicholls 2-2-20

Joseph O’Brien (Ire) 1-2-6

Nigel Twiston-Davies 0-2-6

Philip Hobbs 0-2-10

Contenders

**        The Very Man (40/1)

*****  Hollow Games (7/1)

***      Adamantly Chosen (7/1)

**        Five O’Clock (14/1)

***      Grand Jury (22/1)

*****  The Goffer (16/1)

***      Decimation (25/1)

*          Earlofthecotswolds (40/1)

*          Ilikedwayurthinkin (22/1)

*          Langer Dan (11/2)

****    Banbridge (12/1)

**        Hes A Hardy Bloke (16/1)

****    Chemical Energy (10/1)

***      Au Fleuron (25/1)

****    Cobblers Dream (16/1)

**        I A Connect (20/1)

**        Quinta Do Mar (50/1)

****    Freedom To Dream (22/1)

***      Perfect Attitude (50/1)

**        Herbiers (50/1)

*          Lucky Max (66/1)

Reserve Tank NON RUNNER

*          Silver Sheen (80/1)

**        Bigz Belief (125/1)

****    Party Business (40/1)

Conclusion

One star, Langer Dan was touched off last year, this year he’s 2lbs higher for that. Yes, he’s only run once this season, a pipe-opener for this. At least he’s short in the market and I can pass him over but he can go close again. The Goffer does look interesting. Trained by Gordon Elliott and winning a Grade 3 last time. Hollow Games, also trained by Elliott must have an excellent chance, 3^rd in behind the Minella’s at the Dublin racing festival, he’s high in a ‘handicap’ in name only. In the same race, Freedom to Dream, was 12 lengths behind. He ran out of puff over the 2m 6f and may appreciate as shorter trip.

Selection

THE GOFFER e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365, Unibet, Betfred all 6pl)