Grand National 2022 - Trends Analysis
Minella Times (11/1) won last years renewal, and in Rachel Blackmore we had the first female jockey win the event. I couldn’t have the horse myself, he hadn’t won over 3 miles or more for starters (2m6f) thus suggesting he wasn’t the stayer you want for this normally. This year he is now top weight and should find it very difficult to repeat the feat.
Of course, Tiger Roll, should be running to win his 3rd Grand National, but as the owners spat their dummy out for the 2nd year running, he is now retired after they also spoilt their own retirenent party but winning with Delta Work.
Many of the trends continue to look pretty strong and we will continue to use them until they are broken
Age - Horses aged 8-12.
No horse outside of this age range has won a Grand National since 1940 when Bogskar (aged 7) took the honours. The last horse older than 12 was Sergeant Murphy (aged 13) who won in 1923. Horses younger than 7 are now prevented from competing, they couldn't win anyway and need protecting from over-enthusiastic trainers and owners.
The last 16 winners were all aged between 8 and 11 years old. Amberleigh House won well as a 12 year old in 2004, the only one that old since 1995, however horses outside the 8-11 age range have just 3 places from 58 runners in the last 10 years.
10 Year Trends (won-placed-runners) – 2020 not run of course.
aged 7 0-0-18
aged 8 4-7-63
aged 9 2-8-99
aged 10 0-6-83
aged 11 3-3-53
aged 12 0-1-29
aged 13 0-2-8
aged 14 0-0-3
Distance Win - Winning form over at least 3 miles, preferably 3m1f+
Last year Minella Times was the second horse not to have won a Chase over 3 miles. * since Gay Trip in 1970. Really frustrating that that stat has been broken.
Rule The World was a maiden when winning in 2016. He has finished 2nd in the Irish Grand National the season before, so had no stamina problems, just race winning ones.
Previously on Grand National blog:
* Not since Gay Trip won the race in 1970 has the winner previously not won a race over at least 3 miles. It seems logical that if you haven't won a race at 3 miles or more, you won't win one at 4m 21/2f.
To go a bit further, 15 of the previous 17 winners had won a chase over 3m 1f or more, and 15 of the last 17 had a top 3 finish over 3m 21/2f or further. The fences may be 'easier' and the distance 'shorter' but stamina is still extremely important at a marathon trip.
Weight Carried
Only 4 horses since 1983 had carried more than 11 stone 1lb. All 4 have come since the 2010 renewal, possibly due to the fences being a bit easier and the race shorter. However in the last 5 renewals, very few horses with weight were up there at the business end.
In 2013 only 1 horse within 50 lengths carried more than 11st.
In 2014 only 1 horse within 115 lengths carried more than 11st.
In 2015 only 1 horse within 90 lengths carried more than 11st. Excluding the winner.
In 2016 no horse within 147 lengths carried more than 11st 1lb. The ground was soft.
In 2017 no horse within 66 lengths carried more than 11st 1lb.
In 2018 only 1 horse within 55 lengths carried more than 11st 1lb. The ground was heavy.
In 2019 4 horses ran within 31 lengths of the winner, carrying more than 11st. Excluding the winner
In 2021 no horses finished carrying more than 10st 13lb.
In total, just 10 horses were within 554 lengths of the winner in the last 8 years. This excludes the 2021 race (128 lengths first to last) So low weights are still preferred.
Race Fitness - Must have run within the previous 62 days.
One For Arthur was off for 84 days. As we said above, every winner was off for a maximum of 62 days since at least 1988. Training methods are better now, so maybe something will win after even further off soon, but it will still pay to side with race fit horses.
Rough Quest had a break of only 16 days in 1996.
Form - Had finished in the first 3 in one of his last 3 starts.
Every horse needs to be in some sort of form, not necessarily winning form as we don't want that pesky handicapper finding us out do we. Even the hopelessly out of form 100/1 shot, Mon Mome, in 2009, managed a 2nd in the January of that year.
Of course Auroras Encore (2013) wasn't placed in his previous 7 races to throw that out of the window but he'd run well in some decent Graded Handicaps. His last form was the previous April with a quality 2nd in the Scottish National. All other winners since 1988 had top 3 form.
Experience - Have run in at least 9 Chases
Horses need good jumping experience to win the Grand National. Every winner since Miinnehoma (9 Chase races) in 1994 has run in at least 10 Chases. You may want to give those with 9 races under their belt, the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't want to be affording others with less any leeway.
Class - Have won a chase worth at least £17,000
You still need to be classy enough to win the National. Bad horses still don't win. The horses at the lower end of the handicap will need to be scrutinised for this trend. Pineau De Reu won a £13,000 race, so leeway can be given if they tick most of the other boxes, but every other winner since Party Politics in 1992 had won a £17,000 Chase. (Apart from Rule The World, who ran in 7 chases worth £40k or more, and possibly would have won the Galway Plate if he hadn't stumbled between the last 2 fences).
Season Runs - Have raced between 3 and 6 times since August
Missed prep races, setbacks in training, bad planning and over-raced horses will find it tough to win the Grand National.
Miinnehoma had only 2 races in the 1993-94 season before his win. Every winner since had 3-6 runs.
We are looking for horses that have been kept ticking over throughout the season without going over the top.
Conclusion: Winning Profile
Aged 8-12
Won over 3 miles or more over fences
Top 3 finish in a 3¼ mile Chase
Last run between 20-84 days ago
9+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £13k to the winner
Between 3-6 runs since August
If you want to refine it further
'Perfect' Profile
Aged 8 to 11
Won a 3m 1f+ Chase
Top 3 in a 3m 4f+ Chase
Carrying less than 11-02
Last run between 20-62 days ago
10+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £29k to the winner
Between 4-6 runs since August
Mares
One more note, Snow Leopardess will be running this year. She really looks to have a very nice profile, she’s also a grey and has now become very popular in the market (16/1→ 7/1 fav, overnight).
However, no mare has won since Nickle Coin in 1951. I’ve gone back to 1988, and to be fair only 22 mares have gone to post and 4 have placed, but only 1 of the last 14 runners (Magic Of Light, 2nd in 2019).
It’s one thing to bear in mind when whittling down your shortlists. Other mares in the line-up (5 day decs) are Mount Ida, Court Maid and Agusta Gold. Court Maid is another faring well on the trends at the moment.
Hopefully since the mares race program has been increased in the last few years, more will be kept in training and one will win. We had 3 run last year, having only had 3 in the 8 renewals before that (and only 8 in the from 2000 to 2019.
Betting
Lastly, the last few years, Bet365 have been giving half of total stakes back on all each way bets (up to £250 staked). This offer usually starts from sometime on Wednesday and ends Saturday at noon.
You must have had an account with them by the wednesday to qualify. There's no guarantee that they will do the same this year, but it's worth opening an account with them if you don't have one already.
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