DAY
ONE
Skybet
Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Grade 1 - 2m 87y
Overview
The
first race of a gruelling but fantastic 4 days and one that a lot
less predictable than it was 20 years ago, where big priced winners
were the norm. Latterly horses at the front of the market have
prevailed, but not necessarily favourites. There are still plenty of
jollies who don’t fit the profile and get turned over, Dunguib
and Cue Card spring to mind. This year Melon could be
that jolly.
10-year
Trends
10/10
Had won over 2 miles. The last 6 had won over 2m1/2f or further.
10/10
Had won at least 50% of their hurdles.
10/10
Had run between 2 and 5 times over hurdles
10/10
Had run less than 11 times in total in their career.
9/10
Had achieved an Adjusted Racing Post Rating (RPR) of at least 146.
[Ebazayan,
only 121 in 2007]. All had an Official Rating (OR) of 139+ or hadn't
yet achieved a rating.
9/10
Were aged 5 or 6. [Captain
Cee Bee was
aged 7 in 2008]
9/10
Had won last time out (LTO). [Menorah,
2nd in 2010]
8/10
Had run within the last 59 days. [Exceptions
80 and 115 days]
8/10
Were rated within 13lbs of the Top RPR.
8/10
Were not flat-bred horses. [The
last 8 winners]
7/10
Had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Hurdle. 7 of the last 8 winners had
achieved this. The exceptions had not run in one, (winning
a Class 2 Hurdle)
and the other 2, an Irish Maiden Hurdle.
Additionally
38
of the last 42 winners were aged 5 or 6.
Only
one 4-year old has won in the last 42 years [Hors La Loi
III in 1999]
20
of the last 22 winners had run within the last 68 days.
17
of the last 22 winners had run within the last 45 days.
18
of the last 20 winners had won last time.
No
horses who had run on the flat have been placed since 2008.
Ages
(Win-Place-Runs)
4yo
0-1-4
5yo
4-12-81
6yo
5-6-64
7yo
1-1-18
8yo
0-0-4
9yo
0-1-1
Trainers
(Win-Place-Runs)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 4-2-22
Nicky
Henderson 1-9-19
Henry
De Bromhead (Ire) 0-1-2
Alan
King 0-1-4
Contenders
- 10 year trends - winner averaged 4.5 stars
Ballyandy 3/1 ****
Won
the Betfair Hurdle last time and has to go close in this. Worry that
race doesn’t throw up many winners.
Beyond
Conceit 20/1 ***
Hasn’t
done much wrong in both starts, but needs to step up massively here,
place chance if doing so. Flat-breds have a poor recent record
though.
Bunk
Off Early 6/1 ****
Looked
the winner at the last at Leopardstown last time, but was beaten on
the run in. Has a chance, but Cheltenham’s hill is unforgiving.
Flat-bred another negative.
Capital
Force 66/1 ***
Slow
start to career before winning an 18 runner maiden at Thurles last
time, form of that not too hot, but ticks plenty of boxes for his
price.
Cilaos
Emery 20/1 ****
Turned
over at odds-on last time, if he’d won that, he’d be a 5/1 shot.
If he wins this, get on Mick Jazz on friday.
Crack
Mome 10/1 ****
Form
not working out well from his last race, likely to find a few too
good here as well.
Elgin 25/1 ****
Flat-bred.
Beaten River Wylde (gave 3lbs for 3 length defeat), could run well
again, but that last defeat was only 17 days ago.
Glaring 66/1 *
Should
be outclassed here.
High
Bridge 16/1 ***
Progressive
but at too low a level to win this surely. Place chance if stepping
up.
Labaik 40/1 **
Refused
to race 4 time in last 7 races, and that’s before he’s heard the
Cheltenham Roar.
Magna
Cartor 100/1 *
Exposed
7yo plodder, won’t be finishing this.
Melon 11/4f ***
Will
have to overcome plenty of negatives. Didn’t beat that much in his
only hurdles start either, if he wins, he wins
Pingshou 50/1 **
Clattered
the last with every chance in Listed contest last time. Could run
better than his price suggests.
River
Wylde 8/1 *****
Perfect
on my trends, however the Dovecote win was only 17 days ago, and
that’s why they have a bad record here.
Conclusions
There
are cracks in the armour of evey horse apart from River Wylde
(8/1) but I’m a little worried about a hard race just 17 days ago.
Ballyandy (3/1) won the Betfair Hurdle, but that’s
his only hurdle win and should be in the mix. Melon is too
short for me, having run what looks a poor maiden, (2nd
beaten 4 times since). ELGIN (28/1, Ladbrokes) will be closer
to River Wylde on levels this time, again a 17 day break isn’t
ideal, but at that price he doesn’t have to win. High Bridge
(16/1) needs to step up, but was 6th in the bumper and has
won easily this season, his rider can’t claim the 7lbs allowance in
this, but is 4/4 on the horse (1/5 other riders). Plenty of offer for
the first race of the festival, possibly extra places as well, shop
around.
Racing
Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase – Grade 1 - 2m
Overview
In
recent years this has become a race to watch rather than bet in with
4 odds-on favourites hosing up with little opposition and in small
fields so little opportunity of an each-way bet. Altior
bids to extend that record. He should win if he completes.
10-year
Trends
10/10
Top 2 in all Chase finishes.
10/10
Had run within the last 80 days.
10/10
Were not flat-bred.
9/10
Aged 6 or 7 years old. Five older horses aged 9 or older have failed
to make the frame. [Sizing Europe was 8 years old in 2010.]
9/10
An Adjusted RPR of 160 or more. (10/10 OR 147+ or unrated.)
[Exception: Western Warhorse 148]
9/10
Rated within 6lbs of the RPR Top Rated. [Exception: Western
Warhorse (23lbs) in 2014]
9/10
Ran to a Hurdles rating of 143 or more. [Exception: Western
Warhorse 130]
8/10
Had 3-5 Chase starts. Both exceptions less.
8/10
Had won last time. [Exceptions were 2nd in Grade 1 and
Class 2 Chases]
8/10
Won a Novice Chase between 2m and 2m3f. Exceptions won at 2m4f and
2m41/2f.
8/10
Had a course win or had a top 4 finish at a previous festival.
Additionally
28
of the last 30 winners had finished 1st or 2nd on
their last start.
24
of the last 26 winners started at 9/1 or less.
17
of the last 19 winners had not unseated/fallen in their chase career.
15
of the last 17 winners had a hurdles rating of 142+,
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
0-3-10
6yo
3-3-30
7yo
6-8-46
8yo
1-3-15
9yo
0-0-3
10yo
0-0-1
12yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Nicky
Henderson 2-3-10
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 2-1-9
Henry
de Bromhead (Ire) 1-1-3
Contenders – 10
year trends winner averaged 4.6 stars.
A
Hare Breath 40/1 **
Lightly-raced
for a 9 year old, but behind Forest Bihan and Cloudy Dream in Graded
company last time.
Altior 2/7f *****
Cleary
wouldn’t look out of place in the Champion Chase tomorrow, should
win barring a fall.
Charbel 10/1 ***
Followed
Altior home twice this season, and was 5th behind him in
the Supreme Novices Hurdle last year. Could be the 2nd
best in the race, however been absent since early December isn’t a
positive.
Cloudy
Dream 16/1 ****
Not
rated highly over hurdles and beaten by Forest Bihan last time
(giving weight). Place chance at best.
Forest
Bihan 20/1 ****
Beat
a couple of these, has place chances. Never run at Cheltenham is a
small worry.
Ordinary
World 40/1 ***
Need
to look elsewhere.
Royal
Caviar 14/1 ***
Fell
at the last when challenging in Irish Arkle. Not sure that form is up
to much and he has too many slight negatives to justify my backing.
Some
Plan 20/1 ****
Was
left alone in the Irish Arkle, but he’s 9 now and is passed over.
Three
Stars 66/1 *
Just
the one star here, not up to scratch.
Conclusions
ALTIOR
(2/7fav) is clearly going to
win if he stands up. However we have 9 runners and an each-way race.
FOREST BIHAN (20/1)
has solid each-way claims although he hasn’t run at the course
before.
Ultima
Handicap Chase – Grade 3 – 3m 1f
Overview
The
first handicap of the meeting and although some the handicaps have
started to see a large compression of the weights, this one is
holding up quite well. Only one favourite has won recently. Don’t
look for horses who’s best form is over shorter than 3 miles and
young chasers have an excellent record so keep away from the exposed
olduns.
10-year
Trends
10/10
Aged between 7 and 10 years old.
10/10
OR no bigger than 148.
10/10
Won over 2 miles 71/2 furlongs or more.
9/10
Had run between 2 and 5 times that season.
9/10
Had achieved a Chase RPR of 143.
8/10
Carried no more than 11-03 in weight.
8/10
Had run within the last 47 days.
7/10
Finished in the top 3in one of the last 2 starts. 2 winners were
unplaced in decent Hurdle races last time.
7/10
Had run less than 10 times over fences.
Additionally
The
last 18 winners were aged between 7 and 10.
14
or the last 17 winners were official rated no more than 143, however
the last 3 winners were above this indicating a sea-change in this
race.
Only
two horses aged 11 or more have placed since 1997.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
0-3-14
7yo
3-11-43
8yo
4-1-50
9yo
1-9-50
10yo
2-2-30
11yo
0-2-22
12yo
0-0-4
13yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Jonjo
O'Neill 3-1-13
David
Pipe 2-3-15
Neil
Mulholland 1-1-4
Alan
King 1-1-9
Colin
Tizzard 1-0-7
Gary
Moore 0-1-4
Paul
Nicholls 0-1-10
Venetia
Williams 0-1-14
Contenders
–10 year trends - winner
averaged 3.8
stars.
Un
Temps Pour Tout 12/1 ***
Last
years winner, up 7lbs this year and that will probably stop him.
Noble
Endeavour 7/1f ***
Another
too high in the weights, opposable at the price.
Theatre
Guide 25/1 **
Can’t
see him troubling the judges in this.
Clarcam 50/1 *
Not
good enough any more, certainly not over this far.
Viconte
Du Noyer 33/1 **
Pulled-up
last time and too high in the weights for this after winning a big
handicap here in November.
Annacotty 50/1 **
Out
of form.
The
Young Master 20/1 ***
Think
last year was his best chance when 3rd. Place chance
possible.
Label
Des Obeaux 16/1 ****
Only
a 6 year old, but has place claims.
Holywell
14/1 ***
2nd
last year, but completely out of form this season. This is his time
of year though.
Junction
Fourteen 33/1 ***
Distance
worries and has been off for 4 months.
The
Druids Nephew 10/1 **
Just
the one start this year is a worry and I’ll bypass him this year.
Ibis
Du Rheu 12/1 ****
Only
3 chase starts, so the fact that he hasn’t won over this far can be
fudged as he’s done ok in defeat.
Measureofmydreams 20/1 ***
Form
figures of F0-P means he’s easy to ignore.
Buywise 33/1 *
Has
to be left alone until he finds some form.
Coologue 50/1 *****
Big
price for a C&D winner this season, drops to within 4lbs of that
winning mark, Charlie Longsdon’s never won at the festival, in fact
just 1 place from 52 runners.
Caid
Du Berlais 25/1 ****
Yet
to win this far over fences. Disappointing in his last 3 runs, frame
a possibility.
Henri
Parry Morgan 12/1 *****
Looked
the part in the past, but hasn’t completed in 3 of his last 5
Chases. Huge amount to be taken on trust with 24 runners.
Singlefarmpayment 15/2 *****
No
faults here. Brought down when getting into the race last time. Big
chance here, but price is about right.
Pilgrims
Bay 25/1 ****
Only
ran 17 days ago, in a tough Grade 3 handicap. Too soon?
Go
Conquer 25/1 ***
Form
over shorter, not good enough to win this.
Antony 50/1 ***
Not
good enough here surely.
A
Good Skin 33/1 ****
A
good 2nd in the Kim Muir last year, however Tom George
still hasn’t won at the festival (0-8-54), has place chances but is
out of form.
Vintage
Clouds 25/1 ***
Hasn’t
won over this far but some good performances in defeat, this possibly
too early in his career.
Vic
De Touzaine 40/1 **
Form
over shorter and is easily ignored.
Conclusions
Singlefarmpayment
(15/2) is fairly priced, but no more. The each-way selection is IBIS
DU RHEU (12/1, WHill 5pl) who
is a novice with the bare 3 chase starts and won the Martin Pipe
Hurdle last year.. One at a huge price is COOLOGUE
(50/1, bet365 5pl), who was a C&D winner this season, although
his record in Class 1’s isn’t too great.
Stan
James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy – Grade 1 – 2m1/2f
Overview
The
last 2 winners, Faugheen and Annie Power are injured,
the race looks wide open but not a vintage renewal. I think we can
find reasons out why each horse can and can’t win and it looks an
intriguing puzzle.
10-year
Trends
10/10
Had won at the distance.
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 166 or more.
9/10
Were rated within 8lbs of the RP Top Rated horse.
9/10
Had between 5 and 12 Hurdle runs. [Exception: Hurricane Fly
(19) was a previous winner.]
9/10
Had won a Class 1 Hurdle that season, 6 won a Grade 1, 1 won a Grade
2 and 2 won a Listed race. Last year Annie Power had a single
prep race before winning.
8/10
Had run within the last 51 days. All ran within 79 days.
8/10
Were aged between 6 and 8 years old. One exception was a previous
winner. No horse aged 10 or more since Sea Pigeon in 1980 & 1981.
8/10
Had won a Grade 1 Hurdle.
7/10
Had won last time out. Exceptions were, 2nd, 3rd
and 4th in Graded Hurdles.
Additionally
27
of the last 33 winners had won last time.
25
of the last 27 winners had won that season.
22
of the last 26 winners were from the first 5 in the betting.
21
of the last 25 winners had placed at a previous festival.
20
of the last 29 winners had won at Cheltenham.
The
only 5-year-old to win since 1985 was Katchit in 2008.
Since
1951, only 4 winners were 9 or older. Only 2 winners were aged 10+
No
reigning Supreme Novice Winner has won since 1971.
Since
1993, 2 winners had not run in that calendar year.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
1-6-29
6yo
3-6-33
7yo
4-1-23
8yo
1-4-16
9yo
1-2-7
10yo
0-0-4
11yo
0-1-4
12yo
0-0-2
13yo
0-0-1
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 4-4-14
Nicky
Henderson 2-7-21
Alan
King 1-0-6
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-2-5
David
Pipe 0-1-3
Contenders
– –10 year trends - winner averaged
3.6
stars.
Brain
Power 15/2 ****
Won
2 big handicaps this season, but in general handicappers don’t win
Cheltenham Grade 1’s. Off for 87 days a negative, but could be more
to come.
Buveur
D’Air 4/1 ****
The
Supreme Hurdle 3rd, switched from a Novice Chase career
after this race fell apart. A.RPR of only 163 is short for the usual
winner of this the drying ground isn’t is his favour.
Ch’Tibello 33/1 **
Shouldn’t
be good enough to feature here.
Cyrus
Darius 40/1 *
Not
good enough for this.
Footpad 20/1 ***
A
mixed campaign from the Triumph 3rd. Likely to be held-up
and place chances at best.
Moon
Racer 10/1 *
Novice
Hurdler, given his chance as he’s had injury problems. David Pipe
can get them fit after a break, but he’ll need to improve hugely to
win this.
My
Tent Or Yours 16/1 *
2nd
in this twice, hasn’t been winning this season and is now 10 years
old.
Petit
Mouchoir 7/1 *****
Only
8th in last years Supreme Novice Hurdle, so he may not
like the course. Likely to lead from the front so they’d better not
give him too much of a lead. Perfect trendswise, but did fall in the
Fighting Fifth Hurdle.
Sceau
Royal 33/1 **
12th
in the Triumph Hurdle last year, then won the Elite Hurdle at
Wincanton, but hasn’t gone on since, may come into it if the ground
dries out.
The
New One 14/1 ***
Had
his chance in last 3 years, no stand-out runner this year, but should
find one or two too good.
Wicklow
Brave 33/1 *
Off
since he ran in the Melbourne Cup on 1st November. Would
be an unusual routh for a winner of this.
Yanworth 3/1F *****
Might
hit a flat spot in running but always responds to pressure, might
like to be nearer the inside rail this year. Honest as they come and
should be there or there abouts.
Conclusions
A
really open contest and certainly not one to invest too much money
in. Yanworth
(3/1fav)
could be a fantastic price come the end of the race or the worst
favourite in the race for a while. He hits all the
trends, but it’s Mark Walsh’s first sit on him after Barry
Geraghty’s injury. I
expect PETIT
MOUCHOIR (7/1)
to be allowed to bowl along in front, and if he settles well he could
take some pegging back, and he is a tentative selection in this.
Footpad
(20/1) may be ridden to get in the places, but can’t win. All
in all it’s not a vintage renewal and don’t be too surprised at
the result.
OLBG
(David Nicholson) Mares’ Hurdle – Grade 2 – 2m 31/2f
Overview
Willie
Mullins’ record is sublime, with 7 wins from 9 (and should have won
2 years ago too). He has a lot less horses to shuffle around this
season after Gigginstown Stud moved all their horses out of the yard.
Vroum Vroum Mag and Limini will take all the beating.
9-year
'Trends'
9/9
Aged between 5 and 10 years old. [5-7 is the sweet spot, with Quevega
winning 3 times aged 8-10]
9/9
Raced between 4 and 17 times over Hurdles. [4-10 hurdles with Quevega
and a lucky Glenn’s Melody had more]
9/9
Rated within 23lbs of RP Top Rated. [4lbs looks more like it with 7/9
in that area]
8/9
Won over 2m4f or more. [Whiteoak won over 2m1f]
8/9
Had an Adjusted RPR of at least 156.
8/9
Had won a race worth £12k. [Whiteoak won a £6k race, 7/9 had
won £28k or more.]
8/9
Won last time.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
4yo
0-0-3
5yo
2-1-24
6yo
1-6-45
7yo
3-5-39
8yo
1-4-28
9yo
1-1-8
10yo
1-0-3
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 8-1-12
Alan
King 0-1-5
Jessica
Harrington (Ire) 0-1-6
.
Contenders– 9 year
trends winner averaged 4.6 stars
Apple’s
Jade 5/1 ****
Easily
beaten by Limini last time, but has beaten Vroum Vroum Mag this year,
should be there or there abouts.
Bon
Chic 66/1 *
Plodding
handicapper off since August.
Briery
Queen 33/1 **
Suggestion
is that she will fall short but close for ties with Lifeboat Mona off
level weights.
Colin’s
Sister 25/1 ****
Improving
all the time, and could be the best British novice mare at the
moment. Each-way chance here.
Debdebdeb 66/1 *
Has
a bit to find with the British horses, let alone the Irish.
Hidden
Identity 150/1 *
No
win for over 3 years, no chance.
Indian
Stream 50/1 **
Novice
Chaser, unlikely winner here.
Jer’s
Girl 8/1 ***
Not
been at the races this season, but probably needs the step back up to
2m4f.
Lifeboat
Mona 12/1 *****
Hits
all the trends, maybe the best hope of the British.
Limini 5/4 *****
Likely
to add to Willie Mullins roll of honour, but value must lie
elsewhere.
Midnight
Jazz 25/1 **
Gave
Vroum Vroum Mag a big scare at Doncaster, that could be the best she
can be.
Midnight
Tour 66/1 **
Shouldn’t
be good enough to challenge.
Miss
Crick 66/1 **
Another
without a chance.
Pass
The Time 66/1 *
Been
not winning over sticks, fences and on Tapeta at Newcastle, won’t
be winning here too.
Rock
On The Moor 50/1 *
Beaten
by a few of these previously
Rons
Dream 33/1 ****
9th
last year, needs further need to be a bit closer to use her stamina
at the end.
The
Organist 50/1 ***
Been
Novice Chasing, and would be surprise winner here.
Vroum
Vroum Mag 2/1 *****
Last
years winner, not as impressive this year, but should still be there
at the finish.
Conclusions
The
market has about right at the top of the market. I full expect Limini
or Vroum Vroum Mag to win. Betting preference is for COLIN’S
SISTER (33/1, Stan James) who is improving for every run. Worth
checking out in any ‘without Limini/VVM’ markets or bookies with
an extra place.
JT
McNamara National Hunt Challenge Cup
(Amateur
Riders' Novices' Chase) – Listed – 4m
Overview
The
nature of the race has changed from a race for 2nd rate
plodders to one where classy future champions compete (Gold Cup fav
Native River was 2nd last year). That’s because
penalties for Graded wins were removed in 2010. The lowest A.RPR for
the winner since has been 154 (5 of the 6 159+), before 2010 it was
in the 130s and early 140s.
10-Year
Trends
10/10
Had raced over fences at least 3 times.
9/10
Had finished in the top 2 in a Chase over at least 2 miles
71/2 furlongs.
9/10
Had achieved a hurdles rating of 121 in their career.
9/10
Had finished in the top 5 last time.
9/10
Had an Adjusted RPR of 135 or better. [The last 6 154+]
9/10
Were aged between 6 and 8 years old. [Exception: 9yo Midnight
Prayer (2014)]
8/10
Had been off the track for between 24 and 78 days.
8/10
Had won over at least 3 miles in any sphere.
8/10
Had finished in the top 2 in one of their last 2 starts.
8/10
Had raced in a Graded Chase. [Exceptions won Class 2 & 3 Chases]
Additionally
The
last 14 winners had at least 3 starts over fences.
11
of the last 15 winners had finished in the top 2 last time.
Since
1989, only two 5 or 6 year olds had won the race (2009 and 2016)
All
9 horses aged 10 and above were unplaced in the last 10 years.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
6yo
2-2-26
7yo
4-9-71
8yo
3-7-5
9yo
1-2-22
10yo
0-0-7
12yo
0-0-2
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Alan
King 2-1-9
Gordon
Elliott (Ire) 2-0-4
Willie
Mullins (Ire) 1-2-10
Rebecca
Curtis 1-0-4
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 1-0-7
David
Pipe 0-2-7
Nicky
Henderson 0-1-3
Paul
Nicholls 0-1-7
Contenders – 10
year trends winner averaged 4.3 stars
A
Genie In Abottle 5/1jf *****
Jamie
Codd rides, so that is a massive plus. He’s perfect on the trends,
but I don’t like the form too much.
Arbre
De Vie 20/1 ****
Found
one too good in each of his chase starts this season, one to leave
off the short-list here.
Arpege
D’Alene 12/1 *****
Will
have to bounce back from a disappointing run last time behind
Bigbadjohn and Flintham, and Paul Nicholls doesn’t have much
success in this.
Ballycross 40/1 ***
Shouldn’t
be good enough here.
Bells
‘N’ Banjos 33/1 ***
Won
both starts, but only at shorter and will need to improve massively
here.
Beware
The Bear 8/1 ****
Also
on both starts, but crucially not a third. Could be good enough, but
unproven at the top level.
Bigbadjohn 14/1 *****
Needs
to cut out the odd jumping error, but strong at the finish, beating
Flintham and Arpege D’Alene at Ascot last time.
Champers
On Ice 8/1 ****
Thought
he’d go for the Ultima Handicap earlier. He’s short enough for
this and I’ll pass him over.
Dancing
Shadow 25/1 *****
Will
certainly stay the trip, but is he good enough.
Edwulf 5/1jf ****
Trip
is a big unknown and he only ran 16 days ago. At the price he is left
alone although Derek O’Connor rides him.
Flintham 20/1 *****
Doesn’t
win ofter and outbattled by Bigbadjohn last time. Place chance
possible.
Haymount 16/1 ***
Shouldn’t
be good enough here.
Kerrow 33/1 ****
Another
who shouldn’t be troubling anyone at the end.
Martello
Tower 14/1 ***
Former
Albert Bartlett winner, hasn’t been pulling up trees so far.
Missed
Approach 33/1 ****
Tipped
up at the first 17 days ago, so we can put a line through that, not
really done enough for me.
Tiger
Roll 20/1 ****
Former
hurdle winner here, consistent but has been off for 134 days.
What
A Moment 66/1 ***
Not
good enough.
Calett
Mad 25/1 ****
Backing
a 5 year old over 4 miles IS a little mad, won’t be carrying my
money.
Conclusions
Extremely
hard race to predict as this will be the first attempt at 4 miles for
most of the field. Jamie Codd and Derek O’Connor (plus Katie Walsh
& Patrick Mullins) are excellent amateur pilots and must be
respected but the price is factored in. An each-way bet on BIGBADJOHN
(14/1, bet365 4places), seems like the value call here.
Close
Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase – Listed – 2m 41/2f
Overview
The
tightest handicap at the festival, so much so, it’s probably better
to think of it as a level weights race. It was just a 4lb gap between
top and bottom last year. Because horses have such a small band to
hit to get a run, lots of the winners have been in form, 8 had
finished top 2 on their last completion. I’ve abandoned any
weight-related trend and found that all 10 winners had won a Class 3+
race of any kind, it doesn’t rule out many runners but is better
than ruling out none.
10-year
Trends
10/10
Aged under 10. Horses aged 6 or 7 have won 9 of the 12 renewals.
10/10
Had won at least a Class 3 Chase or Hurdle.
9/10
Had finished in the top 3 last time they completed.
9/10
Had raced over fences between 3 and 6 times.
9/10
Had last run within the last 45 days.
9/10
Hadn't won more than 2 chases. [Exception Hunt Ball won 6 as
he went 50lbs up the ratings.]
8/10
Had won over at least 2 ½ miles.
8/10
Had not run in a Graded Chase so far. [Exceptions were 2nd
and fell in a Grade 2]
7/10
Finished top 4 in all completed chases.
Additionally
Only
1 horse that carried a penalty ran into a place.
Since
the start, 6 and 7 year olds have won 9 from 139 runners, all other
ages are 4 from 96.
Horses
in first time head-gear have placed 5 times in the last 8 renewals.
Ages
(Wins-Places-Runners)
5yo
1-2-17
6yo
3-9-42
7yo
4-8-75
8yo
1-7-43
9yo
1-4-18
10yo
0-0-3
Trainers
(Wins-Places-Runners)
Ferdy
Murphy 2-0-4
Nicky
Henderson 1-3-14
Philip
Hobbs 1-1-10
Paul
Nicholls 1-1-12
Rebecca
Curtis 1-0-3
Nigel
Twiston-Davies 0-2-6
Tom
George 0-2-7
Willie
Mullims (Ire) 0-1-2
Colin
Tizzard 0-1-5
Charlie
Longsdon 0-1-8
Jonjo
O'Neill 0-1-8
Contenders – 10
year trends winner averaged 4.0 stars
Zamdy
Man 25/1 ***
Yet
to win at the distance but couldn’t be in better form.
Last
Goodbye 20/1 ****
78
days off is a negative in this and has been running on softer.
Double
W’s 16/1 ****
Not
won at the distance yet, place claims
Mixboy 20/1 ***
Up
13lbs for his last win, ensures he gets into the race, but off for 70
days.
Foxtail
Hill 6/1f **
Bad
at the trends as most runner don’t win Grade 3’s and still get in
this, but this is a race where the shape of the trends are evolving
and I can’t rule him out just yet.
Hammersley
Lake 16/1 ****
A
few minor negatives on the card, not ruled out wholly on those.
Captain
Redbeard 20/1 *****
Nothing
too sparkling about his profile, even if it is perfect.
Templehills 33/1 *****
Jumping
errors in 3 of his 5 starts have put paid to those races. He’s won
the other 2 (with mistakes) including beating Vibrato Valtat (ran in
Tingle Creek) out of novice company. If he can put in a good round of
jumping he has a chance.
Bun
Doran 16/1 ****
Trainer
Tom George’s record is poor and he may want some rain.
Killiney
Court 25/1 ***
135
days off and more than 2 chase wins are negatives.
Its’afreebee 9/1 ****
First
time headgear does do well in this race and he wears cheek-pieces
here. Did well to get dropped to 139 after a poor run last time, not
perfect but worth considering.
Powersbomb 25/1 *****
Passes
the trends, but not a stellar chasing career so far. Oppose.
Tully
East 16/1 ****
Flattering
2nd last time and isn’t my cup of tea.
Relentless
Dreamer 25/1 *
Lots
of negatives and probably want further.
Deans
Road 25/1 ****
Off
for nearly 6 months, surely there are fitter horses.
Gold
Present 10/1 ***
Tough
race 17 days ago, ground will suit.
Two
Taffs 12/1 *****
Unsuitable
trip/going last time to keep his mark at 139, Davy Russell on board.
This maiden is interesting. Unproven at course.
Sizing
Tennessee 20/1 **
Trying
and failing at the distance. Too hot for him here, though first time
blinkers on today.
All
Hell Let Loose 22/1 ****
282
days off. That’s a long time.
Burtons
Well 20/1 ****
Not
run on ground this fast, but has a chance.
Conclusions
The
last 2 winners were maidens and that is an interesting angle to look
at in such a tight handicap. Horses with more than 2 chase wins don’t
have a great record, perhaps they’ve hit their peak in the handicap
and are passed by horses with greater scope who are growing into
their career. TWO TAFFS
(12/1, skybet) fits that description. He’s a safer proposition than
Templehills (33/1).
Burtons Well (20/1)
and Its’afreebee
(9/1) for the frame.
No comments:
Post a Comment