Grand National 2018 - Trends Analysis

Last years winner, One For Arthur, was a pretty good fit on the trends. He was off the track for 84 days, the longest since at least 1988.  Every other winner since then had raced within 56 days. I took him off my 'shortlist' after the jockey wanted to sit out the back and pick off the field. My take on that was 'dodge lots of falling horses and need tons of luck'. But he did it well.

Once again we have a pretty strong set of trends to start off with.



Age - Horses aged 8-12.

No horse outside of this age range has won a Grand National since 1940 when Bogskar (aged 7) took the honours. The last horse older than 12 was Sergeant Murphy (aged 13) who won in 1923. Horses younger than 7 are now prevented from competing, they couldn't win anyway and need protecting from over-enthusiastic trainers and owners.
The last 10 winners were all aged between 8 and 11 years old. Amberleigh House won well as a 12 year old in 2004, the only one that old since 1995, however horses outside the 8-11 age range have just 2 places from 63 runners in the last 10 years.

10 Year Trends (won-placed-runners)
aged 6/7  0-0-28
aged 8     2-6-63
aged 9     3-12-117
aged 10   2-6-101
aged 11   3-3-53
aged 12   0-1-26
aged 13   0-1-7
aged 14   0-0-2



Distance Win - Winning form over at least 3 miles, preferably 3m1f+
Rule The World was a maiden when winning in 2016. He has finished 2nd in the Irish Grand National the season before, so had no stamina problems, just race winning ones.

Previously on Grand National blog:
*Not since Gay Trip won the race in 1970 has the winner previously not won a race over at least 3 miles. It seems logical that if you haven't won a race at 3 miles or more, you won't win one at 4m 21/2f.   *Apart from 2016.

To go a bit further, 14 of the previous 15 winners had won a chase over 3m 1f, and 11 of the last 14 had a top 3 finish over 3m 21/2f or further. The fences may be 'easier' and the distance 'shorter' (one through moving the start 200yds and the other when all racecoures were remeasured) but stamina is still extremely important at a marathon trip.



Weight Carried
Only 3 horses since 1983 had carried more than 11 stone 1lb. Those 3 have come since 2010, possibly due to the fences being a bit easier and the race shorter. However in the last 5 renewals, very few horses with weight were up there at the business end.

In 2013 only 1 horse within 50 lengths carried more than 11st.
In 2014 only 1 horse within 115 lengths carried more than 11st.
In 2015 only 1 horse within 90 lengths carried more than 11st. Excluding the winner.
In 2016 no horse within 147 lengths carried more than 11st 1lb. The ground was soft.
In 2017 no horse within 66 lengths carried more than 11st 1lb.

In total, just 4 horses were within 468 lengths of the winner in the last 5 years. So low weights are still preferred.


Race Fitness - Must have run within the previous 56 days
One For Arthur was off for 84 days. As we said above, every winner was off for a maximum of 56 days since at least 1988. Training methods are better now, so maybe something will win after even further off soon, but it will still pay to side with race fit horses.

Rough Quest had a break of only 16 days in 1996.



Form - Had finished in the first 3 in one of his last 3 starts.
Every horse needs to be in some sort of form, not necessarily winning form as we don't want that pesky handicapper finding us out do we. Even the hopelessly out of form 100/1 shot, Mon Mome, in 2009, managed a 2nd in the January of that year. Of course Auroras Encore (2013) wasn't placed in his previous 7 races to throw that out of the window but he'd run well in some decent Graded Handicaps. His last form was the previous April with a quality 2nd in the Scottish National. All other winners since 1988 had top 3 form.



Experience - Have run in at least 9 Chases
Horses need good jumping experience to win the Grand National. Every winner since Miinnehoma (9 Chase races) in 1994 has run in at least 10 Chases. You may want to give those with 9 races under their belt, the benefit of the doubt, but I wouldn't want to be affording others the same.



Class - Have won a chase worth at least £29,000
You still need to be classy enough to win the National. Bad horses still don't win. The horses at the lower end of the handicap will need to be scrutinised for this trend. Pineau De Reu won a £13,000 race, so leeway can be given if they tick most of the other boxes, but every other winner since Party Politics in 1992 had won a £17,000 Chase. (Apart from Rule The World, who ran in 7 chases worth £40k or more, and possibly would have won the Galway Plate if he hadn't stumbled between the last 2 fences).



Season Runs - Have raced between 3 and 6 times since August
Missed prep races, setbacks in training, bad planning and over-raced horses will find it tough to win the Grand National. Miinnehoma had only 2 races in the 1993-94 season before his win. Every winner since has had 4-6 runs, until Ballabriggs (with 3) broke that, but was so strong on all the other trends he was a must bet. We are looking for horses that have been kept ticking over throughout the season without going over the top.



Conclusion: Winning Profile
Aged 8-12
Won over more than 3 miles
Top 3 finish in a 3¼ mile Chase
Last run between 20-84 days ago
9+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £13k to the winner
Between 3-6 runs since August

If you want to refine it further


'Perfect' Profile
Aged 8 to 11
Won a 3m 1f Chase
Top 3 in a 3m 4f+ Chase
Carrying less than 11-02
Last run between 20-56 days ago
10+ Chases
Won a race worth more than £29k to the winner
Between 4-6 runs since August


Lastly, the last few years, Bet365 have been giving half of total stakes back on each way bets (up to £125). You must have had an account with them by the the wednesday to qualify. There's no guarantee that they will do the same this year, but it's worth opening an account with them if you don't have one already.


Good Luck